Geography. That’s all you need to know about the district of the newly appointed Secy. of the Army, Rep. John M. McHugh — NY-23. If New York State were Italy, NY-23 would be the top of the boot, snuggled up against Switzerland and Austria. Only in NY-23’s case, it’s the part of New York State that snuggles up against Lake Ontario and Quebec, Canada.
Buffalo, NY might get all the Weather Channel coverage, but NY-23, especially the part that is to the east of Lake Ontario, Watertown, Fulton, Oswego (and points north and east – the Tug Hill Plateau), get snows that make Buffalo look like Florida in comparison. When storms get stuck on the lake, Watertown gets 6’ of snow. . . in four days.
People in NY-23 understand the cold and love of snow machines a lot.
Now that President Obama has put McHugh’s seat into play by nominating him for the top Army slot, it might be interesting to take a look at the area. Politically, it’s a swing area – George W. Bush took it twice, but Obama took it in the last election. Democrats are not strong here, but the military is. Fort Drum’s unit has been in and out of Iraq ever since the very beginning. People in NY-23 understand "coming home."
Here are a few demographics for the region, which runs from Watertown on the west all the way to the Vermont border and from Oneida and Madison County on the south to the St. Lawrence River – the Canadian border with Quebec – on the north, with large chunks of the Adirondack Park contained within it. Demographic estimates courtesy of Census.gov, the 2007 estimates.
Households: 248,829, 168,437 families.
Education: 85.4% with a HS diploma or better; 7.7% have at least a BS
Employment:
Management/professional: 29.4%
Service: 21%
Sales and Office: 23%
Farm/fishing/lumber: 1.3%
Production/transport: 14.3%Employment within industries:
Manufacturing: 10.3%
Retail: 12.2%
Education: 27.4%
Tourism: 8.8%By sector:
Private: 70.1%
Government: 21.8%Median Household income: $42,473
Per Capita Income: $20,541
% of Families under the poverty line: 11.2%
Housing:
% of Homes as mobile homes: 14.1%
% of Homes built before 1979: 69%Heating Fuel:
LP: 10.2%
Electric: 13.6%
Fuel Oil/Kero: 40.2%
Wood: 9.7%Home Value:
% of Homes under $150,000: 78.3%
Median home value: $88,100
Of the four military bases that used to exist in Upstate New York, three (Plattsburgh, Rome and Fort Drum) were located in NY-23. Plattsburgh closed in 1995, and is now a fairly successful airport and commercial development (Pratt and Whitney, Bombardier, and Westinghouse Air Brake are there). Rome has not been successful at developing at all; the USAF has a research center there employing almost 900 people. The largest employer in that county (Oneida) – not healthcare related – is the Oneida Indian Nation with their casino operations. Fort Drum is a major employer and influence in their Lake Ontario region.
As can be seen from the percentages of employment, education is a huge employer in the North Country, both from a public and private college standpoint:
Potsdam: SUNY Potsdam and Clarkson College
Plattsburgh: SUNY Plattsburgh
Canton: SUNY Tech College and St. Lawrence University
Oswego: SUNY at Oswego
Plus such smaller institutions as Paul Smiths College and the various community colleges.
One industry that used to be huge in this part of the state is lumber and furniture. Two factors have come together which have squeezed these out. NYS has made huge efforts to buy up all the acreage in the Adirondack Park to save it from development and furniture companies have been moving their manufacturing offshore for years. In March of this year, the last piece of private lumber company land, 92,000 acres, was purchased as an ecological investment by the government of Denmark to save it. The last paper mill, in Glens Falls (Finch Pruyn) has an agreement with NYS that they will be furnished with wood harvested from the Adirondacks for at least 20 years. There are still some furniture manufacturers in the district (Harden Furniture in McConnellsville is one), but they will no longer be able to obtain their wood from lumber company lands in the Adirondack Park and will be sourcing their wood from other areas in Upstate NY (which is OK since 70% of the state is forested and hardwood supplies are very good).
So, what we have with NY-23 is a district which is not only rural, but heavily dependent on seasonal tourism, government spending, and institutional spending. The traditional, natural resource based economy has basically been supplanted with tourism, but there is still some manufacturing in the area.
Whoever replaces McHugh has to be very cognizant of the role of the military in the area – and how the military abandoned two major bases which caused large economic upheavals – and must be prepared to deal with a district whose interests are in protecting what they have and getting development dollars in a big way.
Related posts:
- Army Secretary Nominee McHugh Favors “Changing” DADT, per Gibbs
- Accountability Now Targets Jim Cooper for Primary Challenge
- BREAKING: Scozzafava Officially Endorses Owens In NY-23
- Mike Ross’s District is Evidently Not in Arkansas
- Upcoming Recess Events: Tell Your Rep Where You, Your District, and America Stand





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This is really interesting Toby, thanks so much.
Do you know what the 2008 PVI is?
R+1. Answered my own question.
http://www.openleft.com/diary/…..ng-in-ny23
Thanks, Toby, for educating us.
Helpful. I hope the DCCC and DNC read this.
Seconded.
Thank you Toby – very helpful.
Map
My dad used to go to the Rome base in the sixties and seventies, when he did secret SAC telnet stuff; there must be some old “Fail-Safe” era consoles he designed up there, rotting in a warehouse, no doubt.
Thanks for this explanation, Toby. Much appreciated.
What’s up with the Viggo Mortenson rumors, anyway?
They call them snowmobiles, not snow machines – its not Alaska. Prisons are also a big industry,
I read somewhere that the district has never been represented by a Democrat.
Possibilities, from Swing State Project:
Again, thanks for the info (and the map and possible candidates, Teddy). I’ve been wondering what the impact of Obama choosing McHugh might be. Sounds iffy for a Dem, but worth trying for.
I haven’t been up there, but it must be stunningly beautiful. And so much snow! It just made my list of retirement locations. Not enough snow for x-country skiing down here in NJ. Wow, foot upon foot!
Interestingly, in a New York State special election, there’s no provision in law for a primary. The county party chairs get together to pick a candidate to run in the general election.
So progressives probably need to make clear, very early, that we won’t donate to a candidate who promises to join the Blue Dogs, like Scott Murphy did right out of the gate. That way, we could possibly neutralize the pressure to make that promise.
Unless the Democrats don’t really care about the progressive money anymore. Which is entirely possible.
Chris Bowers:
there was a period when Mr. Mortensen lived in Watertown..
I apologize; in my part of the state, they are called snow machines…
If you are interested in retiring to the area(particularly the western part, my advice is to buy a house that is two stories tall and get a contract with someone to come and shovel your roof; 6 feet of snow on a roof is no joke.
Blue dogs….snooty rednecked assholes? with no balls.
Teddy — so, do we take the position that the only Democrat that is acceptable is someone who refuses to be a Blue Dog? Not that I think my rep, Arcuri(the next district down and he’s a dyed in the wool Blue Dog)is such a great whoopdeedoo – he’s not. I despise him and have told him numerous times in my emails and faxes to him. But do we take the position that any Rethug is better than a Blue Dog?
Well, no. But if our progressive money is to mean anything at all, I think we have to ask the candidate if s/he will forswear joining the Blue Dogs. And explicitly state that revving up the progressive netroots small money machine is dependent on the county leaders choosing a candidate who so forswears.
People will probably give money through other avenues, but the progressive spigot needs to be closed to candidates so enamored of the Blue Dogs that they, like Scott Murphy, announce before they are chosen that they can’t wait to join up.
I don’t expect a district like this to elect a member of the Progressive Caucus, but the best we can hope for is a non-aligned Democrat, don’t you think?
And, no, I think a Democrat is better than any Republican, although I don’t like to see the caucus pulled right to accommodate Democratic members from red districts. This district isn’t red, though — so we should have an expectation of getting a decent Democrat, don’t you think?
That sounds like a great place to visit.
I wonder how many people in that district would welcome a public option health plan?
Here’s DKos diarist silver spring today, with the political history of this district:
Teddy — although there is a lot of ‘Upstate New York is conservative and Republican’ – I’ve lived here my whole life and what I have always seen is ‘not necessarily liberal – but definitely pragmatists’. That’s how Bobby Kennedy got elected. That’s how Moynihan got elected. That’s how Hillary Clinton got elected. Any Democrat who runs has to show that he or she can run faster, jump higher, understands the economic and military issues in the district a helluva lot better and can bring the bacon back to the district. That is how that person will get it done. If Upstate NY is part of the Rustbelt – NY-23 is the buckle on the Rustbelt. If Darrell Aubertine has shown that he can bring money into the district or understands how to work the economic development system, then he’s got a terrific shot.
Yeah, it’s jobs jobs jobs, and jobs. I think that someone who runs in NY-23 on a national progressive platform is going to lose, big time, so they really need to get that sorted out. The collapse in ethanol prices leading to the shutting down of NY’s only ethanol plant, which was located in Jefferson County, is another big issue because it cascaded down to farms. And if a Democratic candidate can’t get the jobs issue nailed down, while I’d rather see someone genuinely liberal get in there, better a Blue Dog Democrat than a Republican. I’m in Michael Arcuri’s district and while I’m no fan I’m glad it’s a moderate Democrat instead of a moderate Republican. Upping the head count gives people like Feingold more power. But Hillary Clinton is a great example. By the time she left office she had a lot of fans in places you’d never expect, like Binghamton and Rome, because she was bringing in a bunch of defense manufacturing jobs and working on legislation to help keep people on their farms.
[Picking nits, the only people I’ve seen or heard in northern or central NY refer to those things as “snow machines” are local dog mushers puttin’ on the Alaska (speaking as a dog musher and snowmobile club member who spends a lot of time at Tug Hill). Check out the NY board on trailconditions.com or the NY State Snowmobile Association bulletin boards to see written examples of Tug Hill denizens talking about their gizmos.]
Aubertine moving up means his Senate seat is up for grabs. Do you think a Democrat can hold that? Because if a GOP gets it, the state Senate is all tied up. I don’t think New Yorkers can afford that craziness again.
hehehe..you can pick nits all you want — I’m in Arcuri’s district also and I’ve heard folks down here refer to those particular ‘winter recreation vehicles’ both ways, but I will bow to your greater familiarity. :)