N. Gregory Mankiw, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Bush, talks about lessons learned from the economic disaster for Economics 101. He thinks the fundamentals are the same as they always were.
Despite the enormity of recent events, the principles of economics are largely unchanged. Students still need to learn about the gains from trade, supply and demand, the efficiency properties of market outcomes, and so on. These topics will remain the bread-and-butter of introductory courses.
Is it true that “gains from trade” and “efficiency properties of market outcomes” are the right guiding principles, or are there scenarios where they just aren’t worth it?
When the current crisis became so obvious that the financial elites couldn’t convincingly deny it, their first step was to bray about the dangers of protectionism, and the necessity of restoring the banking system. This was reinforced in the media, which never even offered an explanation of why either would be a good plan. The hired hands of the financial elites, Paulson and Bernanke at first, and now Geithner, set about trying to restore their failed business model, with its violent trading of financial “products”, securitization, stupefying pay levels and the whole thing. Their goal was to restore the status quo, in all its rococo glory. No one in power is asking why, or whether the benefits are worth the costs, and despite his claims to the contrary, the President isn’t listening to anyone who thinks there might be another option.
It’s a holiday, let’s play. So, there’s this book, A Theory of Justice, by John Rawls, dear to the hearts of many liberals. Rawls offers principles from which we can judge social structures:
First Principle: Each person has the same indefeasible claim to a fully adequate scheme of equal basic liberties, which scheme is compatible with the same scheme of liberties for all;
Second Principle: Social and economic inequalities are to satisfy two conditions:
1. They are to be attached to offices and positions open to all under conditions of fair equality of opportunity;
2. They are to be to the greatest benefit of the least-advantaged members of society (the difference principle).
That last idea, the difference principle, is the fundamental idea of liberal economics. We start with the knowledge that people have different levels of skills and capacities. Those differences can be used to improve our lives. If we have an opportunity to change our social structures or our economic arrangements, we judge whether to do it by checking to see if it benefits everyone, especially the least advantaged.
Let’s examine the last 30 years using the difference principle. In the period 1947-1980, as productivity improved, workers got a share of the increased economic output.
The chart above shows how that worked, and shows that the change began under Reagan. Productivity increased from 1980 forward, but the median wage stayed flat. The gains went only to the rich.
This pair of charts is a concrete demonstration of the failure of American society to meet the difference principle. The changes in social relations and economic arrangements under Reagan and the first Bush were not in any significant way adjusted under Clinton, a third way kind of guy. Then, under the second Bush, change really got going. The radical changes brought about under the Republicans and their enablers from the money wing of the Democratic party didn’t benefit the least advantaged, or anyone else except themselves. As Elizabeth Warren noted in the most recent report from the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel, in the current recession households have lost 20% of their net worth, after a recovery in which they were treading water.
Those changes were justified on the basis that they increased economic efficiency. That principle was enough for Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and the rest of the Wall Street class. Apparently that hasn’t changed under the current administration. The calamity they created by strict application of that rule certainly hasn’t changed Mankiw’s mind. How much failure and disaster will it take before we consider alternatives to market efficiency as the principle measuring tool for social change?




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Thanks masaccio – I always appreciate your explanations.
Some economists say that, after 1980, the productivity gains were largely due to automation, obtained via capital, so the gains should accrue to capital and not labor.
Oh, and the answer to your question at the end of this excellent post is: Much, much more.
As long as both major parties’ adherents and leaders remain acolytes of the free market and the iniquities it distributes, we will be subject to the tyranny of market absolutism. Until the top end hurts, they won’t permit a change. Unless the masses at the bottom won’t stand for it any longer, and revolt.
? Don’t you mean Until?
I think that a good basis for a fair society is to make the essential sectors (e.g., health care, energy, finance) ineligible for private ownership, and operate them as public utilities.
I don’t know if that is true, that gains are the result of automation. If it is, generally, the worker has to be more skilled to operate and maintain the equipment, so they should be entitled to improved wages.
Even if the argument were correct, it would still leave open the question of whether social arrangements can survive the immiseration of large numbers of people.
Rawls’ point is that social arrangements are a choice in a democracy, and economic efficiency has to be justified, not the other way around.
The insurance industry for sure should be regulated like a public utility.
an added wrinkle from dean baker: Behind the Gap Between Productivity and Wage Growth
here’s the paper’s conclusion:
Selise, you always find such interesting things!
Shorter Mankiw: “Who could have foreseen?”
Thanks masaccio to you and to all the excellent comments.
ICAMI, Scarecrow unpacks some of Mankiw’s other lazy thinking in the NYT’s piece to which you linked above. I couldn’t find
a worse set of made-up excuses for why he missed the meltdownanything lazier on many levels than his comparison of theprivatizing profits socializing losseseconomic meltdown to the swine flu.“Beware of Harvard Intro Economics Classes”
Agreed. Some other candidates are water, manufacture of controlled substances and armaments, and governmental administration.
Areas such as education, transportation, telecommunications, and housing could be operated primarily as public utilities to insure public access, with some private ownership to get the benefits of competition.
Efficiency for whom and why is that a public good worth subsidizing with laws and rulemaking?
Why is it that only the money side of the equation is deemed worth listening to? The labor side never is. Government’s interest is deemed satisfied when the money side’s players are reduced in number, but the share of the pie they cut for themselves gets bigger. Same observation regarding the supposed “debate” about health care reform.
Obama is a middle-of-the-roader. He’s the great American success story, so no need to change much. (By that logic, since LeBron James made it to the NBA, Akron and Ohio’s schools don’t need much improvement.) Regardless of how off track the road is, no matter whose land it runs across or whose house it bisects, he’ll stick to the center line. So shouting in his ear is the only way to be heard above the Wall Street din.
The self-defeating consequence, however, seems that the louder non-traditional players shout, the more radical they are depicted. The louder money shouts, the more it’s listened to.
I suggest we have three litmus tests in the offing. Souter’s replacement on the Supremes. The staffing and rebuilding of the DoJ, including its USA’s. Incredibly, several top DoJ posts remained unfilled and most of Bush’s USA’s remain in harness, pushing Republican, not Democratic priorities. Which suggests that Obama the lawyer’s priorities are the same or that those harmed by Bush’s DoJ are not worth having their harms repaired. (DoJ has mounted no review of the Siegelman case, for example.)
And finally, health care reform. Will it happen, who gets a seat at the table, and what will the final compromise action look like?
Based on the priorities expressed during the bank bail-out, it’s increasingly looking like elections do not have consequences. Will the results be different when the Dems pick up a few more seats in the Senate? (Or is Al Franken’s absence as much a god send to Harry Reidless as the Republicans?)
i found that one a while ago, but only read it recently. i’ve been looking for those economists (and econ journalists) who did make an effort to sound a warning before the housing bubble burst the summer of 2006 (my semi-arbitrary date) to read now. dean was obviously one of them.
i’d add the climate crisis (anyone listening to hansen or is the war on science still on?) to your list. but it doesn’t change your conclusion about elections and consequences.
p.s. have policy makers and economists have made a fetish out of efficiency? what about reliability, flexibility and safety?
What I see is Joe Sixpack working his ass off so that he can move up into the higher income that all the GOP keep promising….. the death tax,don’t tax the rich, OMG OMG I might not win the lottery….
The myth of I will be rich one day and don’t fuck with that…..
I just emailed this to the Chair of Harvard’s Economics department. I copied it to Mankiw, Galbraith and Stiglitz.
“Prof. Stock, Professor Mankiw’s NYT’s piece insulted all economists”
James Stock, Ph.D.
Chair
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer Center
1805 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA02138
Professor Stock:
I certainly hope the Department of Economics under your leadership will attempt to distance the brand which is Harvard, from such a lazy interpretation. Professor Mankiw’s piece sounded like the most recent iteration of the stock Bush administration excuse, “who could have foreseen?”
Is Harvard going to allow Professor Mankiw to use its brand to insulate himself from the understandable consequences of the poor advice he provided President Bush? Is responsibility just for the little people?
If economists cannot forecast economic events of the magnitude we began to see in 2008, what value do they provide?
Plenty of other economists did forecast the asset bubble. Professors Galbraith, Krugman, Roubini, and Stiglitz come to mind immediately.
Professor Mankiw continues to shield rank cronyism, even while it violates the laws of supply and demand. I do not recall Adam Smith ever encouraging the “socializing of losses and the privatizing of profits.”
Professor Mankiw’s comparison of the meltdown to the swine flu was disturbing on many levels. Hog farmers, along with the rest of the world’s agricultural community would really appreciate it if Professor Mankiw would refer to it as H1N1.
H1N1 began on US soil with Smithfield Farms. The latest outbreak came from their facility in northern Mexico. It’s not a surprise to anyone that the techniques Smithfield uses put the public health at risk. What’s shocking is that President Bush could find so many Americans willing to work in his administration, and cash paychecks from the taxpayers, in return for not protecting the public health or the economy.
Here are some critiques of Professor Mankiw’s piece from Firedoglake:
“Sharing the Wealth: the Basis for a Fair Society”
http://firedoglake.com/2009/05…..r-society/
“Beware of Harvard Intro Economics Classes”
http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/5449
Sincerely,
The important elements to Rawls is the justification for his principles. Someone might claim that these are just “ideas” and that they are no more valid than free-market ones. However, when you attempt to justify alternative social rules you run into a problem.
How would you justify a free-market driven economy and social policy (if you can afford health care you can get it…)? I am sure some of the free-market types will respond with “it’s just common sense that the free-market way is the best way” but this is not an argument.
Rawls attempts to base his position on a minimal set of principles and then argue that his ideas derive from these principles. The initial set of base principles is rational self-interest. Rawls assumes that if we have a group of rational people that use a principle of self-interest when setting up a society, they will end up with social policies like we see in Europe.
This is done by using the technique of assuming that you don’t know at what level of society you will end up when you design social policy. You could end up at the top of society or at the bottom. You don’t know. Using the self-interest criteria you will want to create a society in which your welfare will be best no matter how you end up. A free-market system with little or no social systems like public health or public assistance, is great for those at the top but not so good for those at the bottom.
Suppose you design a system that benefits the most people and prevents those with no money from dying for lack of food and medical care. Suppose you create a system that allows those that start at the bottom to work their way to the top. Such a system is rational designed to protect everyone in the society. Your own self-interest would demand that you create such a society because you don’t know at what level you will end up.
Rawls does not suggest that such a choice situation ever happened, but he did argue that only using the minimal conditions of rational self-interest you would end up with a society that had wide-spread social safety nets and would discourage wide variations of wealth.
If the free-market types have a set of first principles that justify a free-market system (remember, Social Darwinism has failed) then lets hear them…
Here are some definitions of productivity:
http://dictionary.bnet.com/def…..ivity.html
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
http://www.bls.gov/bls/productivity.htm
About 20 years ago I had an unpleasant encounter with the Harvard School of Public Health. A Professor emeritus was writing articles about Organic food that was simply untrue.
I wrote to the Professor who ignored me; then I wrote and asked for a list of the Schools endowment patrons. I got a call back from a Dean who was very interested in my request. I told them I was going to start a letter writing campaign to protest the Professors actions. They never sent the list but within 2 weeks the Professor perminately retired.
Efficiency means money in someone’s pocket. Your other concerns are about value. It’s not such a big concern, especially when the two are inversely related.
Yeah, waste is certainly to be avoided, but efficiency is a means, not an end.
We haven’t scrupled about redundant production in advertising or weaponry. Would it be so bad if we had a surplus of AIDS medication or housing?
masaccio wrote:
Baloney. I’ve heard Geithner on t.v. many times and he, like many other people, says we have to change/fix a lot of things…not just restore the corrupt system.
masaccio wrote:
Wages turned down before 1980, but seemed to level and come back up during the Carter years. It’s hard to see, so I suggest you get a better graph, showing year by year or by presidential era. There was also a leveling and upturn during (what appears to be) the Clinton era. If those upturns had been able to continue we might not have half the problem we have today.
Get a better graph!
Yes, that was a powerful argument by the Republicans and the Rich to screw everybody else.
It doesn’t avoid the problems which arise from growing disparity in wealth and the growing debt of households with flat incomes.
If you want to go that direction then you also have to look at some other “essentials” like food, clothing, housing, all education and so on. That’s a very slippery slope and musn’t be considered until you answer the big question of whether you want all of it or as little as possible.
This is also at the heart of the question over a private-only, ‘public option’ or single-payer health care system.
In WV there was a question about medical malpractice insurance for ER doctors. There was a big ad campaign and insurers left the state. As a last resort the governor set up a state-run plan and it ended. When he called their bluff they all returned and the fight was over.
Another good post and good and interesting comments. I’d add that the decline in labor’s share in increased productivity seems to start about the time the nation was hit by waves of hyperinflation and in 1981 Reagan made it OK to bust unions again. Financial deregulation started then (actually under Carter) but that began the propagation of new financial “innovation” that allowed productivity gains to be hypothecated into the pockets of investment bankers and people who get away with hiding behind the facade of “capital.”
I appreciate the comments on Rawls, whose book I read and found very abstract and difficult to understand. My only thought is that it’s very fine to have such principles but isn’t it all wasted on conservatives?
That’s a powerful vision to offer young people. I’ve seen it time and again. They believe and identify with the Rich and their desires. What they run into is Reality and the many ways they’d like to get rich quick, but discover are merely tricks that don’t work. The lottery is just an easy one to point to.
People who have such dreams really really dread getting bogged down in ordinary jobs they know aren’t going to give them the American Dream. They know their jobs are crap. Look at the t.v. show Friends and how those characters relate to their work — it’s just something they have to do. Look at other ‘office’ humor and entertainment. It all portrays work as crap with crap bosses and no pay or promotions. That is the dead end you don’t want. Given that any kind of hopeful dream seems worth a shot.
The union movement gave people HOPE and OPPORTUNITY, but Republicans knew those people would vote Democratic, so they had to kill that animal.
Now it’s just the utter disaster of Republican management, er governance which shows people a Republican government is just like crap businesses led by crap managers. It’s a scam you can’t survive.
We have to really fix the economy or the last 30 years of Republican economics will just continue to destroy us.
same with productivity. With computers the Rich decided it should all accrue to them. They didn’t let any trickle down. Then, to add insult to injury, they raised health care costs, education costs and energy costs and we’re broken. Something got out of whack.
A very lucid description of the foundation of Rawls’ ideas. You are right to note the lack of a formal justification for the ideas of the Chicago School. I’d love to see one.
There are intellectually sound criticisms of Rawls, but for me he is persuasive and explanatory. I don’t think we can create a complete philosophical system from thin air, but we can do better than the free market people who provide only an abstraction from the system as it evolved.
Carter deregulated trucking, airlines and telecommunications (Ma Bell), but I don’t recall any financial industry changes. What was it?
health care & energy costs rose and then Reagan & co busted unions and deregulated financial markets…we were off to the races.
The point of the graph is not the minor changes in wage growth under Clinton. Even then, productivity rose faster than wages. That is my point. Clinton did not change any of the economic arrangements that the republicans were creating, including the evisceration of unions, deregulation of one industry after another, removing trade restrictions, controlling patents, and so on. He provided cover to the republicans for a number of those changes.
Rawls is a tough read, indeed. I spent a fair amount of time on it several years ago, and it helped that my wife had studied it and helped me work through it. Later I got a book of criticisms, which was even harder.
Still, it is worth it. You have to think about specific examples. I usually explain it with the first draft of Article 2 of the Uniform Commercial Code, which was drafted by a group of academics who knew the common law, and lawyers representing a wide spectrum of businesses. All businesses are both buyers and sellers. If they tried to unbalance the sales provisions towards either buyer or seller, they would stand to lose as much as they would win. The drafters included academics who knew about contracts of adhesion and other consumer abuses, and put in provisions to deal with those as well. Everyone knew that as individuals they faced those problems, so it made sense to add minimal protections.
Of course, the same can be said about some of the rest of the UCC, but Article 9 isn’t one of them.
Well, my first question would be: “Who programmed those computers?” For the manufacturing arena, which so often depends on some form of artificial intelligence for productivity improvements, who developed the algorithms used in the programming. For the large, system wide implementations dealing with enterprise resources, customer relations, or even logistics control, who establishes the relationships involved in the implementation specific to each enterprise – a computer? No, capital wasn’t the only input involved in these productivity increases and shouldn’t be the only resource reaping the rewards.
MarkH,
Both Geithner’s PPIP and TALF are directed at securitized instruments. In Congressional testimony Geithner has expressed support for even the most egregious form of security, the naked CDS.
Wages do indeed go flat a little before Reagan took office. There was a Volcker induced recession at the time and this was expectable. Under normal circumstances, at the recession’s end, wages should have picked up but Reagan’s Presidency with its hallmark “trickle down economics” began the great transfer of wealth out of the middle class to those who were already wealthy. There were some other factors (anti-unionism, etc.) but this marks the construction of what has become known as the paper economy, the shift away from a worker based to investor based model, a model which so spectacularly melted down 8 1/2 months ago.
Under Clinton, fueled by Greenspan’s easy credit policies, some 23 million jobs were created in 8 years. As classical economics would tell you, competition for labor will bid up the price for labor and hence wages. Unfortunately, the Clinton boom ended in the dot com bust and soon after the disaster that was Bush took over the reins of power.
Both healthcare and banking had decades to get their acts together as private run concerns. Given the financial meltdown and the failure to deliver affordable universal healthcare, private enterprise has blown it big time. What most Americans and even businesses need banks for is very limited. Much of it could be done by government or by sharply constrained private entities. For healthcare though, I see no private system or privately insured system which can deliver affordable healthcare to all Americans in an equitable way. The profit motive of Big Pharma, insurance companies, and HMOs is in fundamental conflict with the core mission of healthcare. There is just no escaping that in a private system.
I threw out a couple definitions of productivity above. I think there is much that is hidden in this term. You see if Walmart hires fewer people to work in its stores, then its productivity goes up. But this masks the fact that the service you get at Walmart or similar retailers is lousy. Productivity can increase if you hire fewer workers even if you pay them more overtime. And you also have to look at distortions caused by the financial sector where speculative gains could also translate into higher productivity, even if this was really only evidence of the degree of speculation going on. Finally, if a construction worker built the same house pre-bubble for $200,000 and in the bubble for $400,000 was he/she really twice as productive?
What I am getting at here is that no number or term in economics means exactly what you think it does. I find I often have to compare several numbers (and definitions) to get a feel for what is going on.
You say that the private system of healthcare can never deliver affordable universal healthcare, and imply that the only alternative is a government run system, or one regulated like a public utility. I suggest you are overlooking the third possibility: non-profit health care providers. There are several examples currently doing a good job of it. Their successes should be studied as we try to invent the future of health care in this country.