To read the British press is to realize how fundamental the failure the theory of libertarian economic thinking has been. In this theory, the wealthy possess a special insight into the allocation of capital, and governments should abandon their role in allocating effort to a small extremely wealthy elite. It was a theory adopted by Iceland, which was lauded for its open laws and "flat tax." It was adopted by Lithuania, and to a lesser extent, by Spain. One country that embraced this idea more than any other, was Ireland, which took neo-liberal policies as virtually a doctrine. It attracted 40% of all American direct foreign investment in Europe, which liked it’s educated English speaking population, proximity to the UK, and low prices. For its part, the government of Ireland threw the doors open. As the Guardian reports by piecing together individual stories the plunge has been swift and dramatic. A new Irish diaspora has begun, as the weight of debt and the utter absence of an internally driven capital system, leaves behind the husk of an economy.
What created this collapse was the pure corruption at the top. A corruption seen in the expenses scandal now unfolding in Great Britain is destined to topple the ruling New Labor party — as was seen in the borrowing binge of the very wealthy in Ireland. These two pieces are not unconnected: the culture of flowing money lubricated politicians, who naturally saw that its continuation was essential for their own secure life style. This is not an issue of left or right in the context of the age. There was no left, merely a right that wanted slightly more of the money to flow to socially useful causes.
The aftermath? Spanish unemployment hits 17.4%, that is not a mistake. It is a number that is associated with the Great Depression, or the devastation of the post-war era. An economic bomb has hit what was a go go periphery. Ireland’s economy is projected to contract by a total of 9% this year, with the decline extending into next year.
These however, are the branches. The trunk was the United States and a banking system that packaged revenue flows into securities, and these were then used as a loose paper money which London turned into investment vehicles. The grunt work was outsourced to Ireland, the holding of the small amounts of reserves to Iceland, and Spain became the vacation spot. The roots, however, are in the vast control of wealth which is not in the hands, by and large, of Americans. While banks enabled these flows, they were not the source of them. Instead there were a large pool of investors seeking government returns. That is absolutely secure.
Now if you stop to think about it, that means something. If people want government returns, then there is demand for the kinds of investments that governments, and only governments, can provide. That is to say: public goods. If the investment demand had wanted really to invest in capital, it would have taken on more nominal risk.
What this means is that the fight, in economic ideology, was over how much of the investment in the future should be handled by a very wealthy elite, and what fraction should be handled by the public through government. The ideology of the time was that the wealthy elite, beyond defense and macro-economic stabilization – loosely speaking, making sure the good times kept rolling with low inflation and high money supply growth – was always right, and the public was always wrong. This theory has been proven false. The economic destruction of the New Depression, and Depression is the correct word, will extend for years, and has wiped out the fictional gains of the last 30 years. We are now exactly where we would have been without this experiment in a dictatorship of the propertariat, and we have nothing to show for it but a surplus of posh apartments and private jets. The debt is not in money. The numbers being thrown around represent real work by real people and real sacrifices, to pay back that pool of money. It, and only it, has been declared to be off-limits. The theory of the day is that the rich own the world, and governments only rent it from them.
Economic statistics on the percentage of Americans upside down in their homes, unemployment numbers, GDP numbers, do not reflect the reality of what these numbers mean. It is possible to dissect the recent Bureau of Labor Statistics release and see that private sector employment continues to collapse. 611,000 private payroll positions disappeared in April, and the number for the private sector was revised upwards for March. The slowing is taken as indicating an end to the freefall, because usually it has. However the damage is continuing at this pace, and will continue for some months. The nominal bottom of the downturn is not far away, but the upturn is not for a long time after that. Estimates vary, but many put the return of substantial growth for the US only at the end of this year.
The scale of this fall underlines what Bush and his regime thought was going on: 9/11 represented the chance for a "conservative World War II." A carte blanche to remake the US economy by shifting effort, permanently, to conservative projects and conservative priorities with conservative social structures. We have not seen such a large down shift in the economy, in terms of people employed, since World War II; with the next months data, we are going to fall through the recession of the late 1950′s.
However, to have public investment, the public must demand that investment. In his poetic post on words Glenn Smith pointed out that ideas are stories, and the conservative story, of a world economy based on small luxuries, greed, and a blunt trauma to anyone who would not accept that world order, was fundamentally unworkable as a narrative. It leads today, as it led in the age of Pericles, to hubris and collapse. Masaccio was far more brute, pointing out that if there is no one to carry ideas, then they will die. The beginnings of this project are happening, but far from the light. Darcy Burner, for example, has been given pennies to start working for progressive ideas in a foundation. She has less in seed money than the private jet budget of some Republican congressional campaigns. And this is only one example.
The theory of the last 30 years was that a rich elite would always know better how to allocate capital than would others. Every neo-liberal economics text on "welfare economics" spends time pondering about situations where more money would be created, but most would go to the wealthy; and then deciding that this is a good policy, because we could then tax the wealthy. This turns out not to be the case, because the money created was never real, in the sense of allocating resources, but a fiction. And while it existed, the wealthy could easily bribe a few members of parliament, a few government officials, not to tax it for welfare purposes.
This collapse leaves a void in the minds of elites, and a directionless moment in thought and government. The public wants action, but even those well intended, do not know what to do. Indeed the likelihood is that the political developed world will follow Canada, France, and Germany in ousting parties of the neo-liberal left, and installing neo-liberal right parties out of disgust. This means that the project of change is not won in an election, or by faith in particular individuals. And the economic crisis, like depressions before it, leads into a long and uncertain darkness, with a continuing need for action today, tomorrow, and many tomorrows after it.
Ideas, the right likes to say, have consequences. Look around you and see the consequences of theirs.



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zed
To paraphrase a line from Mr Heinlein, it appears that to many of these people the most important thing of all is “The Dough Must Flow (into the coffers of the rich)”
I can attest from what in-laws say that people are really suffering in Spain.
You paint a bleak picture for our future. Too bad the powers-that-be are happy pretending it’s not happening.
Well, the economy is in the tank and the powers don’t want to take the necessary steps to fix things.
The environment is heating up more and more and we’re about to reach the last tipping point.
More and more areas seem to be hitting drought status.
So, anyone wagering in which aspect of the world will kill us all first?
anybody really think it matters?
Pestilence, War, Famine = Death
Nope, as we’ll be just as much feck’d, regardless of the actual cause of the end of the world as we know it.
The blog TheAutomaticEarth has excellent writing on the economy.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
It’s good stuff, if not depressing.
Capitalism failed us. What next?
and I feel fine
In one of the presidential debates, didn’t McCain point to Ireland as a great success story and they way things should be done?
Athens pursues empire pisses off Sparta in the process long expensive war follows, plus a plague anyway Athens loses.
A rich oligarchy takes over since then Athens has Never been as important again.
Pericles however was a great public speaker, Bush not so great.
The theory of the last 30 years was that a rich inbred elite would always know better how to allocate capital than would others.
Fixed it for you
Frank Herbert the Spice must flow “Dune”?
Heinlein, The Roads Must Roll
The first step on the road to reallocation of investment is increasing taxes on capital. We have plenty, all we need for new investment, and a whole lot more. The excess over the amount we need for new investment is fueling speculation and gambling by the rich, which is destabilizing the real economy, the economy of goods and services.
Book Salon upstairs with William Greider’s Come Home America… hosted by Jane
FDR,Stalin or Hitler were the choices in the Great Depression. The GOP seems to want to replace Hispanics for the Jews this time around.
But I wonder will the economy have to drop to Great Depression lows before Obama feels he has the clout to do what FDR did to get us out of this mess?
The financial types still don’t get it. I’ve heard them, in the last week, going on about packaging mortgages, as if that wasn’t a cause of the current mess.
(Not that I expect the conservatives to ever really get it: they’ve bought into the idea that having money means you’re a better person in various ways, including morality. And they’re also willing to punish those who don’t have money, based on that idea.)
Is that a rhetorical question? Were I to suggest utopia, a classless, moneyless society might be around the corner, you would demur saying human nature would do it in. Rather than argue the point, let’s talk technique because any popular objection to the way things are must be overwhelming, so overwhelming the police and military will join rather than oppose. Something like in Venezuela when we tried to unseat Chavez. He was in jail when the populace freed him and upset the coup. I feared had George Bush decided to postpone the last election on security grounds, we in the US could not muster the outrage to reverse his decision.
How could we make meaningful opposition happen? Every community (small ones for openers) puts its checkbook on line so people see where every public dollar goes. I would call the organization COPE (Citizen Oversight of Public Expenditure) The web sites which permit comparison of things like per student educational costs and class size, would be standard so that if you visit one community you can visit any. Wikipedia like pages, built and managed by everyone, explore and accumulate materials on various public areas like social security. We could then vote on proposed actions. I’m not sure how effective a conversation amongst millions can be and not being software competent, I have no idea how it might be done, but we have enough technology today to create a web of connected sites across the nation. It will take lots of expensive computer power but it can be done.
I could ponder what the Rich think made this Recession begin and to be as bad as it is (and will become), but it’s perhaps more important to wonder if they see themselves as culpable in any way shape or form. So far their hubris has been extraordinary and Repubs have tried to let them blame it all on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (with Dem help).
Is there really a future where securitizing packages of mortgages makes sense? Even if they don’t splinter them? Even if they don’t ‘insure’ them with Credit Default Swaps? Even if they don’t tranche them and give ‘em all “AAA” worthiness ratings?
Yeah but Ireland and Britain are still screwed like America because like America all their major parties are controlled by this same neoliberal clique that created the mess, so even if you identify the problem you can’t friggen turn it around. Not without radical thinking, that encorages mass civil resistance and alternative political structures.
Let’s try to do it!