So, Arlen Specter is switching parties. Who would’ve thought? Well, not Harry Reid, on March 27:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Friday that Sen. Arlen Specter’s (R-Pa.) decision to reject “card-check” legislation has ended any chance of a party switch.
Reid as well as Vice President Biden, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) have tried recently to persuade Specter to leave the GOP.
Great, Harry. I’m in. You deal.
Three things we can learn from this experience:
1) Once again, the Club for Growth overplayed their hand. After taking out Lincoln Chaffee for insufficiently kowtowing to the whims of rich bankers who don’t want to pay their taxes, they put their money on Pat Toomey to drive Specter to the right. Richard Mellon Scaife, Steve Forbes and David Koch all doubled-down on Toomey and Specter was forced to crawl to Grover Norquist. But before you put the hard squeeze on someone like that, you better make sure they have nowhere to go. Specter did. Too bad for them. They’ve successfully boiled the Republican Party down to a thick sauce of lizard-brained extremists so thoroughly tribal they’re incapable of rational thought. Bust!
2) The Democrats seem to be unaware that there is a game on at all. They are saying that they won’t field a candidate to challenge Arlen. Well, that’s smart. Just let him control everything that happens in the Senate like he does now, and watch him move to the right as he continues to compete with Pat Toomey for the conservative vote. Hey, guess what? Primaries work. . . especially when the candidate has nowhere to go. Specter can’t go back to the GOP, so the best way to move him into the "D" camp is to run a primary challenger against him. Make him compete for the hearts of Pennsylvania Democrats before he gets to Toomey, because they may want to see an actual Democrat take the seat.
3) Senate Democrats counting on Specter to keep them from having to take a vote on EFCA are probably looking elsewhere to cover their bets (and that may have inspired the recent mass defection). Arlen may be saying "I think it is a bad bill, and I’m opposed to it and would not vote to invoke cloture," but he is now running for office in a state that has 900,000 union members. Bob Casey got 2,357,058 votes in 2006 to beat Rick Santorum’s 1,658,853. Is Specter going to stand tall as a man of principle and gamble with that many votes? Well, I guess it depends on which principle we’re talking about. Arlen was an EFCA sponsor in 2007, so the only cause he’s really got is himself. If I were Tom Donohue, I’d be crying in my beer. Because it doesn’t take a genius to figure out who’s got the cards now.



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Snarlin’ Arlen’s only principle is “What’s in it for me?”
“They’ve successfully boiled the Republican Party down to a thick sauce of lizard-brained extremists so thoroughly tribal they’re incapable of rational thought.”
Line of the day. Bravo!
Even now, Harry Reid is plotting some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of this victory…
And I keep reading “Arlen’s defection” as “Arlen’s defecation.”
Yep, he’s gonna shit on somebody.
Well said. I’m sure Dems won’t listen, as usual, but we can hope.
Yes Jane you are so brilliant as usual.
He is going to get a red carpet from the Dems no doubt.
Because newly-minted DINO Specter keeps his committee seats and takes away GOP influence (in name, anyway), there have been a number of calls to deny a new organizing resolution in the Senate to restore GOP assignments unless Franken gets seated. Who here actually thinks Reid is savvy enough to make that kind of deal? It is to laugh.
OT, or maybe not – odd headline at cnn.com:
what, they hacked off pieces for the occasional snack?
Thanks for telling it like it is. Better look long and hard at this self important gift horse. Like Lieberman, his only cause is himself. And like Lieberman, his game is to be at the fulcrum of important issues so he can show a bit of leg to the opposing party and dominate the media airwaves before finally voting with the conservatives. Better to have an such an opponent affiliated with the Repubs rather than have him sabotage progressive policies from within.
Damn right! Primary him!
Question: If he should be elected to the Senate as a Dem, then have to resign for health reasons, would the Gov of PA be required to appoint a Dem replacement?
#2 in this post is the most interesting point to me. very good observation.
ew.
Can you say “mole?” Senator Magic Bullet is simply trying to stay in office, and for a twofer, gets to spy on Dem strategery from the inside and report back to the StringPullers. It’s just like what the DLC was created for.
Don’t see this as a positive at all.
Well, maybe in that it helps in getting people more comfortable with the word “Democrat” some more, which has been so vilified over the last 30 years or so. That positive is pretty minor though, and far outweighed by the negative Blue Dog/DLC schtick.
Is Specter going to stand tall as a man of principle…
side-splitting laughter ensues
As for your second point – I’d like to add that switching parties involves two steps – first, leaving a party, and second, joining a party. And the way to join the Democratic party as a Senator is to win two elections – first he has to win the primary. So, thank Arlen for leaving the GOP, but I’m not quick to welcome him to his new party of choice. Keep us posted if there is a netroots friendly candidate in Pennsylvania. This time, I don’t think he could lose the primary and run and win as an Independent (like Joe did). Win-win would be to elect a true progressive into Specter’s seat in 2010.
At his presser Specter lamented that Bushes judicial nominees were not confirmed and that he opposes Dawn Johnson. So this guy is now a dem? Anybody want to buy some bridge property?
I certainly don’t expect Specter to start bleeding TruBlu, but man, what a message to the Repubs.
They may call him a RINO (now), but like him or not Specter was (and still is) a Big Dog in Washington. That got him alot of face time in the MSM, and he has become one of the more identifiable faces of the Reds — especially to the independent voters that follow news and don’t just give party line votes.
Reds (and Blues) can’t win without independents, period. So to all the independents, the message for the day is the GOP is so far beyond saving that its “flagship” members are getting out. That letter “R” gets more and more psychologically poisoned. Fewer moderate Reds means more of the Red soundbites are hardcore, reinforcing the perception that Reds are fringe wackos.
So if you are an “R” pol, you can stay Red to get relected (assuming the majority of your citizensare 25%-ers) . . . with the recognition that you’ll be about as influential as the Whig Party. If you crave power (or, god forbid, actually seek to be a constructive agent of the citizenry in their buisness) or your State isn’t a RedLock, then it doesn’t take a genius to recognize that when the high ranking officers stark jumping in the liferafts . . . get the hell off the boat.
If the other moderate Reds start slowly moving toward the exits . . . then this is the beginning of the end for the GOP.
*note: I know that “abandoning the GOP because its “‘beyond saving’” is a load of manure — (not) being able to beat Toomey is the reality, but the impression on the body politic will be the same regardless of the actual realities of the situation.
Gov. Rendell says Dems are clearing the primary for Arlen, I say we need one more than ever, since Toomey isn’t going anywhere in the general anyway. I noted that it might have been a safer move for Arlen to go independent rather than all the way Democratic at my site.
There is no upside to this move, unless Harry Reid can keep this opportunistic weasel in line by threatening a Dem primary if he doesn’t play nice. And you KNOW that will not happen.
A Dem primary is going to have to come from the grassroots. And it should come. PA deserves a real progressive Dem.
@ #9 Solomon:
Is he looking out for himself? Of course — he’s a politician. It may not be the Greatest Thing EVAR for the Blues . . . but it sure as heck can’t be bad.
I’ve been reading several sites reviewing the J.L. fracas, and alot of people are suggesting that the “smokin joe” fiasco might in hindsight have been brilliant. Dems will play nice with you, so feel free to jump in the pool. Is it true? Dunno — but its an interesting idea.
awesome twolf1 graphic, btw
That’s poetry!
Thank you, Jane. Hope that you are doing well.
I have to go along with that, but they only play nice with you for “so” long. My version, my take, was that Arlen, seeing where the repubs are or are not going, and wanting to hold on to a Position, thought, Cool, you don’t have to be a bleeding heart do-gooder to be a Dem. Easy. I’m in.
It ticks me off royally that the dem leadership has the audacity to promise to “clear the field” = screw the voter. Rendell is going to be running for Ayatolla next I guess
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Hamsher and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
Great post but do ya think that Senator Skelletor will do unto the fascists what he has been puttin’ on the clueless Democrats for these many years? That is, vote FOR cloture on EFCA and AGAINST it on final passage? And didn’t one of the poobahs of the DSCC say earlier that he wouldn’t rule out puttin cash down on a primary challenge to the old bag of bones if he didn’t come around on some votes?
I think that the vacuum of leadership that is One Hung Harry Reid, might be filled by a few well-placed Democrats and the Governor of Pennsylvania might be a wild card in this…how ’bout Rendel gettin’ into it in a primary?
In any case, I have some worry about the majority for the Democrats in the Senate becoming too large to manage given Harry’s inability to manage a rock garden…I would rather have a solid 55-56 real Democratic votes with a leader like LBJ than 62 or 63 votes with 10 or 12 Joe Likuderman-types.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE WEAKER THEY GET THE MORE DANGEROUS THEY ARE!!
Oops, I almost mistook you for our Peterr.
Does anyone have any inside knowledge, ie. did you read this or know someone who has read the book for Saturday’s Book Salon? Crazy for God: How I Grew Up as One of the Elect, Helped Found the Religious Right, and Lived to Take All (or Almost All) of It Back
Chat with Frank Schaeffer about his new book. Hosted by Peterr.
I’ve always been a bit skeptical of born agains, but, I’m intrigued.
Will Arlen get a choice committee chair like Lieberman, so we can have more opacity in governance? GOP moves right, DINO follow.
Agree. That baseball cap…!
Please do not perpetuate the misuse of the term “double down.” You double down from a position of strength, when you have 11 and the dealer is showing 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, which considerably slants the odds in your favor. The correct term to use is double or nothing, which is what you do from a position of weakness, as you are already losing your a** so you are desperately trying to get back to even.
Anyway as to Specter, not a real great Democrat, but still better than a Republican. Plus the message this sends to Independents is crystal clear – the GOP does not want you. It’s a win-win for Democrats no matter how you spin it.
Great analysis Jane. Now, who’s gonna run in the primary to make him compete for those 900,000 union votes?
does sestak want to be a senator?
cause he could be a netroots candidate…or do we think he went soft after getting elected?
Joe Sestak has raised a lot of money and indicated today that it is a possibility.
We can only hope that the folks in PA are smarter than Specter, Reid, the DSCC, oh hell, smarter than any Villager. Does the Club of No Growth have enough money to pay off every pissed off worker in PA? I’m thinkin’ they’d take the money then piss on Specter, the Club, the whole 9 yards.
For some reason, the shot of Arlen in the baseball cap looks a lot like Bill Maher to me.
I’m thinking maybe they ought to change their name to the Club for Reduction. They’ve done nothing but deep-six GOPers for the past two election cycles.
Almost finished with Crazy for God. Frank lived in the same Canton in Switzerland where I spent many happy years and he is a gifted writer. I escaped from a fundamentalist upbringing and took my wife from hers. No regrets!
Citizen foothillsmike:
Thanx, I couldn’t remember who had made some waves (and cash) for a primary run…Joe Sestak would be ideal but ken he corral the union folks?
Must be a huge relief for both of you. Sort of like escaping from a childhood of batterment. Do you recommend it, then?
That graphic…lol
Deep thought: Specter’s sudden announcement is part of a coordinated right-wing effort to bump torture memos from the headlines.
Jane seems to have nailed it. Haggis, as ew somewhat inexplicably calls Specter, is a big pain and no friend of ours, but he just dealt his thug cronies a cruel blow, and they’ll have to see if they can mount any kind of response. There’s no Karl Rove now pulling strings the way that he did for Lieberman.
Taking away the filibuster threat is a very big deal, and once Franken sits down things could really get moving, which would be incredible. Obama and many many others must be thrilled. It doesn’t matter, it seems, so much if Specter is going to vote for any given bill; it’s more a question of avoiding the filibuster threat–the dems have the votes.
So it’s not going to come together overnight, but legislation and agenda and judgeships aren’t ready yet and are still being lined up. Johnson and the OLC will be a good test, although there could be some extraneous posturing and fence-sitting. Once Franken’s around, again, things could really get moving.
And yes, can you say primary? Let’s celebrate this auspicious and perhaps even historic twist as Obama starts his second 100 days, which might look very different now than they might have. Let’s be nice to Arlen and hope he plays fair.
And then go out and push him like nobody’s business in the Dem primary. He has nowhere to go. He doesn’t have Rove, though he may have Rahm. Should be an interesting fight.
While we put him to use, however, maybe it’s a good question to wonder if there are any other vulnerable turncoats to pick off.
Jane
Are you moving to PA for the primaries?
Arlen’s past clearly reveals he is much more than self serving. Even if one disagrees… what he did during the Bush years alone was closer to high crimes against our constitution and rule of law than anything worth talking about him as less than a madman.
Remember it was he and his staff who secretly placed the fascist wording into the Patriot Act. He also repeatedly enabled the worst nominations and the worst changes to our DOJ Bush and Cheney dared ask for.
Nothing good can come from pretending Arlen has a shred of decency.
If big labor supports Arlen, we are all screwed. The price of Arlen’s support on that single issue is not worth it, imo.
ok, I’m just going to admit I am confused about what Jane is saying.
why should Donohue be crying in his beer with all those “defections” and the cover Reid is clearly going to give them ?
Nothing inexplicable at all about the name Haggis. During the Clinton Impeachment, Snarlin’ Arlen used the Scottish law construct and voted the charges “Not Proven”. I believe EW then termed him Haggis from that point forward in “honor” of his vote.
Chris Matthews had been making noise about challenging Spector as a Democrat hasn’t he, wonder what he says now?
Joe Hoeffel might still be interested, what a character building experience that would be?
Thanks, Jane. Will the Liebermanarianism never end?
Specter’s announcement today proves only one thing — that he’ll say anything, then do anything else to preserve his own skin. As the quintessential INO, he just exchanged a D for an R. This means nothing to achieving a filibuster proof senate majority on important issues. Arlen will play the Lieberman card stabbing Reid, Biden & Obama in the back to prove his principled independence.
As for PA 2010, this is better for the rethuglicans than Lieberman in CT 2006. It won’t take $20 million of Rovian bribes to get Specter re-elected as a DINO.
Not good news for Keystone State progressives.
Mathews announced a couple of months ago that he was going to stay in TV and not run against Specter for the Senate and has since (I believe) signed a new contract at MSNBC.
Arlen has more lives than a re-incarnated cat, plus he’s very very funny, and PA hardly ever elects Dem US Senators. Anyone want to bet he’s (again) begging for a SCOTUS appointment?
Does it really take 60 votes to override a veto now? Could it be 2/3? If so, 59 to 40 Senators is around .678 (over 2/3rds).
Sebellius has just been confirmed
I believe veto override is 2/3’s majority; cloture is 60 votes.
So why does it feel like the Democratic party is being boiled down to a Republican party?
I feel like I need a bath. Why weren’t we warned? What next, Snowe and Collins? Swine flu, take me away.
It still takes 67 votes (2/3s of 100) to override a veto.
It takes 60 votes to invoke Cloture (stop a filibuster, even if it is procedural as used nowadays) and bring a bill up for final up or down vote.
RE: # 51 — 2/3’s of both houses. Filibuster cloture in the senate 60 votes.
The rethugs will soon be able to fit into a “big tent” purchased at Toys r Us
I like Arlen because he
vigorously supports Roe v. Wade as settled law;
told Caspar Weinberger he and Reagan exceeded their authority and violated the Constitution by invading Grenada;
held public hearings about Able Danger and DOD data-mining operations;
prevented Bork’s SCOTUS confirmation;
always says his greatest achievement is the SBT (but no one ever laughs).
(When Weinberger tried to defend their not telling Congress about the invasion, he was white-knuckle gripping a bunch of very sharp pencils, like they were fasces or MIRV nukes – and thus he made his points unambiguously if symbolically.)
Senator Specter is out of the frying pan and into the FireDogLake. Let’s see him win a closed Democratic primary (where only registered Democrats can vote) without union support. He single handedly killed Employee Free Choice to appease some Republican fair weather friends. That made him a permanent enemy of many Democrats, especially Pennsylvania union Democrats. Now that he is a Democrat, he will pay for that decision.
The only reason Senator Specter switched to the Democratic party is that his efforts to get the Republican primary change to an open primary failed.
Duly noted, but that was then.
Specter’s Senate Judiciary Committee chairmanship during Bush/Cheney’s first six years, and as ranking minority member for the past two years will go down in history as the worst betrayal of separation of powers since the Constitution was ratified in 1789.
He’s particularly good at posturing for principle, then voting otherwise. Something he learned from his esteemed Lieberwhore from CT.
I would suggest that organized labor and other progressive groups announce that they’ll be counting Specter’s votes. If he votes mostly like a Democrat, no primary challenge. If he votes mostly like a Republican, yes primary challenge.
The DSCC and Reid will always side with incumbent protection, but that really doesn’t matter.
To me, it looks like reid, Rendell, Casey, Schumer & the DSCC cut this deal with Specter to block any real progressive candidate from the inevitable democratic victory lap over Club for Growth’s shill Toomey.
You watch…Specter will be a mole in the Democratic Caucus for the republicans.
I’ll be very surprised to see Specter’s public posturing and actual voting record proved to be more progressive than Lieberman’s over the next 18 months. This same congenital liar & political whore welcomed Specter into his democratic party today:
“I enthusiastically welcome my good friend Arlen Specter into the Democratic caucus. It will be very good to have the company of yet another independent minded Democrat in the caucus!
“I have always admired Arlen as a man of deep principle who has been a bridge builder to get things done in the Senate. Arlen understands that we get things accomplished when we listen to the vital center of American politics. I know that Arlen will continue to make a major contribution to the Senate and the nation as an effective independent leader and problem solver.”
I rest my case.
Arlen Specter “stand tall as a man of principle”? I suppose there’s a first time for everything, but the words “principle” and “Specter” simply don’t belong in the same sentence. He makes Jello Jay look positively rock-like.
Seconded.
Dear Jane,
I love you in a philosophical way, and I will contribute to Marcy W. as soon as I can, it is a week of looking at spending on business and health way beyond sustainable income (as we live here, which is probably not how anyone anywhere els3e lives there).
I skimmed over 63 thoughtful comments to make the joke that in your sixth paragraph — counting the Specter quote and also identified as your point 1) — the last two sentences would read almost as well if they went, ” They’ve successfully boiled the Republican Party down to a thick sauce of lizard-brained extremists so thoroughly tribal they’re incapable of rational thought. BUSH! “
Your Point 2) is absolutely right on in terms of the creation and distribution of political power, as I was driving home from the late grovery shift tonight I had a fantasy of moving to the Keystone state and declaring my candidacy — I got a brother-in-law outside of Trenton NJ, I could push it if I and the republic needed it.
Specter is probably still holding deep secrets from the Warren Commission, he NEEDS to be opposed by some tough, clear-speaking, established-spiritual-path union member who’s already lived in the Quaker Paradise since birth (my only previous trip there was from NJ to visit the graves of my parents-in-law in an ethnic cemetery in Bucks County), somebody who’s already got settled allegiances to the Steelers/Eagles/Nittany Lions/Phillies/76ers/etc., to really call him out from our side.