[Editor's note: Marcy's liveblogging of Geithner's appearance before the House Financial Services Committee continues here. You can find her take on the morning session here.]
Today Joe Donnelly (D-IN) asked Timothy Geithner a simple question — why can’t they ban naked credit default swaps?
DONNELLY: We saw naked credit defaut swaps cause extraordinary devastation to our economy and I know regulation is coming. do these naked credit default swaps provide any value added, or is this simply just gambling?
GEITHNER: Uh….I know there are strong opinions on this issue so I say this with some trepidation. My own sense is that banning naked default swaps isn’t necessary and wouldn’t help fundamentally in this case. It’s too hard to distinguish what’s a legitimate hedge that has some economic value from what people might just feel is a speculative bet on some future outcome. If we could find a way to separate those two types of transactions from each other, we could do that…we would have done that a long time ago across a whole range of financial innovations but it is terribly hard to do.
And, uh…but we will listen carefully to any ideas in this area and understand why people feel so strongly about them.
DONNELLY: I would love to see if there is something we can do in regulation in this area because to me, those are just simple bets. And the American people have been required to take money out of our truck drivers pockets, our waitresses pockets, to pay off bets on Wall Street. And it’s not that there was any real product there, it was simple — at least to me, from the midwest, on Main Street — it just seems like gambling.
GEITHNER: Well our issue is not whether we want to protect the American economy from these things in the future, which we do, the question is how best to do that. And our view is that the absolutely essential thing is to make sure there is more capital held against those positions, so that we never again have to face the situation where those type of judgments could imperil the system and therefore leave Americans in the position where they’re facing much lower pension values, higher borrowing costs, much greater risk of losing their jobs. That’s our basic objective. The only question is whether along side what we do for capital and margin, and these broad efforts to bring these things into central clearing houses, whether we need also to look at banning certain instruments. And I…my own judgment is don’t need to do that, very very hard to do that, but understand there are other views on that and happy to listen to any suggestion.
In Dean Baker’s primer on AIG, he noted that we still don’t know what the government’s policy of paying off credit default swaps has been — did taxpayers have to pay off because a company was trying to protect against losses on a mortgage backed security, or simply because it was gambling that a bond it didn’t hold would go bad? If the latter is the case, he said, "it is difficult to see how a failure to honor the CDS would impose a serious hardship." He also asks why we paid them at full value rather than their market value, and wonders if we paid them off before the underlying bonds had defaulted. "This seems like a straight gift to the banks," he said.
If Geithner thinks that naked credit default swaps have value and need to be preserved, it would be good for the public to know what happened with them in the bailout and what the government’s policy will be about paying them off going forward.
I asked Dean what he thought about this, and he believes that at the very least, we should be taxing naked credit default swaps. "We tax gambling in Las Vegas," he says.
Related posts:
- AIG: First Credit Default Swaps, Now Insurance Companies
- Peter DeFazio: Geithner and Summers Should Be Fired
- Why is Timothy Geithner Rejecting Legislative Policy?
- JP Morgan Chase CEO Promises to be Good on Derivatives
- Republicans Move to Permit Credit Card Companies to Jack Up Their Rates for the Next Several Weeks





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Every day it becomes clearer that we have been taken to the cleaners.
Multiple cleaners.
And all we have left is rags.
[once again I applaud the return of the ‘edit’ button]
From a previous thread
I do not see the difficulty in asking someone taking out insurance to show that they actually own what they are insuring. Give me a break Geitner. If there is actually going to be capital requirements for those isuing this insurance that is based on real loss potential then those with a legitimate reason to buy the insurance could be frozen out because of capital limitations. Once again the insiders would have the power to help friends.
CDSs have no value other than insuring risk taking or “speculation” or betting… pick your term.
He’s right there is no product there. And these CDSs are insuring nonsense like stock X will drop to X dollars then I get paid for my loss.
Of course underlying this is the idiocy of trading shares in the first place. Shares no longer represent the raising of capital for industry. They are simply artifices to imbue with value and manipulate that value.
But there are many egregious practices in stock trades and that is that you can sell shares you don’t own. You can even sell more shares in a company that exist. The exchanges are completely out of control and no different than a crap game.
It is obvious even to the most simple mind that we are witnessing a continuing fraud. Bush inflated it and now we see the continuation of the fraud by the Obama administration. Why is Obama allowing this to continue? It seems to me that this entire situation is a Ponzi scheme of a mammoth sort and the American taxpayer is the last guy. At http://www.worldreports.org there is a good explanation of what is transpiring now and its danger to all of us. Stiglitz has it right. Geithner’s plan will defraud the taxpayer even more. We all thought the nightmare of Bush was over, but it’s not. It is going forward to even a more extreme extent.
You will not see anything but wall street insiders engineering policy for their industry. It’s the revolving door on steroids and this industry holds everyone else by the balls, so to speak. And this is why they get to determine the policy and all the kow towing.
You hear BS like these are the only ones who can understand and navigate the system (they created). WRONG
You get the BS that if these institutions and their financial instruments (toys) are taken away or put aw2ay or sent away of banished the entire world economy will collapse. WRONG.
You get the BS that they guys won’t work unless they get their big fat compensation packages and no one will do it for less. Very little talent for this stuff. WRONG.
You get a complete kabuki dance, set, costumes and all including a program!
Meanwhile in the Middle East, there are reports of either an Israeli or American bombing run in Sudan that has reportedly hit a weapons convoy from Iran headed for Gaza.
More war!
-G
Well Timmy, if you’re having a problem determining which swaps are naked, lets just outlaw all Credit Default Swaps. And if people want to seek protection on an investment, let them buy a form of regulated insurance. Stop the Swaps!
Additionally, if any are left, we need to knock them lower on the bankruptcy protection scale, just above plain vanilla unsecured creditors.
I think you are on to something. Our financial sector IS a series of interlocking Ponzis which reaches into every main street and most homes, bank accounts and so forth.
The simply way to prevent the whole thing from collapsing is to keep it going, all the sub ponzis. To do that they need to feed it from the bottom with more cash – tax payers and printing presses. OH and while they save the world the status quo still racks it up.
The other approach is to “unwind” the schemes without crashing the entire world economy and closing every business on Main Street. That is a bit harder, and will require some pain for all, but the harshest down on Wall Street. It’s not no bonuses, but some serious claw backs of wealth and worse jail time for wrong doing. So let’s just keep it going and avoid the mess. OK? Now everyone shuddup
I say, Ethel, get your clothes on!
Pardon the o/t and much as I despise linking to politico, this one’s gonna make your blood boil:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…..l#comments
Idiot issa want to “regulate” the First Lady!
Darrell Issa Dickhead.
-G
His answer is emblematic of the real problem. The system is a proven failure, yet the “wizards” refuse recognize it. There has to be a fundamental reshaping of the financial sector. None of the pieces can be indispensable. There has to be a fenced off area clearly marked: you play here, you can lose it all. It cannot be allowed to infect unwitting or unknowing customers funds. Period. There was never any other motive in the mortgage scam than stealing. It is kabuki with the intent of cleaning out the treasury for the next few decades.
Why I’m being charitable to Geithner is beyond me, but it seems he was saying there is no easy way to determine if a CDS is a hedge or a speculation. As a hedge the CDS has value and since it isn’t easy to tell them apart he’s open to ideas.
It seems to me it would be easy to just forbid CDS contracts if the purchasing party cannot show interest in the underlying instrument. The problem with this is it could be extended to old style derivatives like options.
I’m gonna go lookin’, but ya got a link?
If naked CDSs are valuable, then we should all be able to take advantage of the “naked” principle. It could be a nice, productive substitute for pitchforks and torches.
The folks that took bus tours of AIG executives’ mcmansions, for example, might want to take out naked property insurance on the residences, if only as a hedge against a sudden rise in the retail prices for bottles and gasoline. Others might like to opt for naked life insurance on individual AIG personalities. Why shouldn’t investment bankers feel every bit as secure as those of us that actually work for a living in companies facing layoffs?
Or we could push the “naked” concept beyond insurance into some truly innovative financial strategies, like naked car repossesion (sure to be popular with those unjustly vilified, hardworking souls who are currently singled out as “carjackers”). The possibilities are endless.
Al Jazeera – bombing run was in either Jan or Feb.
Really? I don’t think so. It’s done with secured loans, and insurance. There’s no reason in my mind why a CDS contract shouldn’t be ruled out if the buyer can’t document exposure. If the buyer’s covered position changes (not the value), the CDS is renegotiated – or void. They have everywhere been described as insurance: let them be regulated as insurance, no more betting on raindrops on a windowpane at all.
Matt Tabibi on DemocracyNow indicated all that needs to be known about CDS’s; legislation had to be SPECIFICALLY passed to exempt them from State gaming laws. ‘Nuff said and Geithner’s response is worthy of a ‘Greenspan’ award for disingenousness.
Naked CDS’s are not gambling as long as the Federal government allows the owners to keep any profits and to pay them for any losses. Geithner is in charge of a criminal enterprise. Obama refuses to replace him and change the game, thus Obama is involved in an ongoing criminal conspiracy as were his some of his predecessors.
Something tells me it ain’t gonna change until the U.S. is bankrupted…
It is already possible to get “naked” protection against property values. For example, see Money CNN article on futures for 10 real estate markets.
“There was one question that voted on that ranked fairly high and that was whether legalizing marijuana would improve the economy and job creation,” he said. “And I don’t know what this says about the online audience, but … this was a popular question. We want to make sure it’s answered. The answer is no, I don’t think that’s a good strategy to grow our economy. All right.”
Responded Bernstein: “Thank you for clearing that up.”
How to make money in a recession.
I resemble that remark.
umm.. a bombing run on Sudan has hit a convoy in Iran? Aren’t those countries kind of on different continents? Or is that the point you’re trying to make?
Outlaw all CDS’s. Where’s that old capitalist spirit? You make an investment it goes up, you win. It goes down, you lose. It doesn’t matter that the insurer has reserves. Where do the reserves come from if not the public so this kind of gamble doesn’t belong in insurance portfolios. Hedging has a public purpose in protecting farmers from price falls and in other situations, but insuring against bond defaults is nuts. If an issuer can’t sell bonds without insurance, it shouldn’t be able to sell the bonds or perhaps be in business. It is truly disappointing Obama doesn’t get this.
no, Geithner is speaking total and utter nonsense. Any accountant doing an audit of a derivative trade (that is, anyone with access to the deal documentation) will be able to tell you whether the hedge was covered/matched or naked. Basically, if there’s no evidence of a stream of underlying cashflows, whether they are indentured interest/coupon payments or real business receivables, then the hedge is uncovered.
What Geithner is probably saying is that he doesn’t have (or want) the authority to seize/subpeona the documentation that’ll let him tell which hedges are real or not. This is a lack of political will, not an indication of how “hard” it is to tell the difference between covered and uncovered deals.
If, by the way, there is fraudulent documentation (in other words, the trader made up the schedule of underlying cashflows), then that’s fraud. Plain and simple. Fraud can be harder to detect, but presumably the vast majority of these naked hedges weren’t fraudulent.
Going forward, it should also be fairly easy for banks, corporations and regulators to tell whether the hedge is real or speculative – just require that the underlying cashflow profile be submitted alongside the proposed derivative payout profile under base and realistic worst case scenarios to be submitted to the audit/compliance unit. The trade is rejected if there is a material discrepancy between the two cashflow streams. This is what RiskMetrics and other processes are supposed to do, if the people responsible for them actually do their jobs.
As Geithner accurately pointed out, prohibiting CDSs would encourage the development of other instruments to bypass regulations. I think it would be easier to put into any reform package that CDSs and similar instruments will not be covered by any Federal monies. A bank’s CDS portfolio tanks, tough shit. Since the shareholders obviously weren’t concerned enough about their investments to prohibit the bank from dealing with such instruments they can take a scalping as well.
or are we funding someone’s slush fund for off the books wars/surveillance/etc? (see, for example, valtin) i’m not making any claims here other than i’m not discounting much of anything with these crooks.
our government is looking more and more like an organized criminal enterprise.
if the contracts are not legal, then they can not be enforced in our courts. that alone, without any enforcement action, would i’d think make a big difference.
Until the arrival of the macho thugs called Blackwater these covert actions were only the sophisticated successors to shit like Laos. Special Forces folks could make a lot more money and see more of the shit with CIA than they could in the service. A lot of ex SF as mercs in Angola.
Making them illegal takes us back to the greedheads coming up with something entirely different to serve the same purpose. I think making them worthless in the eyes of the government might work.
Geithner is a dope. He uses an argument that is too strong for the point he is making. If companies will just evade regulation of CDSs by coming up with something else, then what is the point of regulation at all. For any instance, you can make the same argument: Well, they will just come up with something else.
Real regulation well enforced says to those regulated that if you try any snot nosed run-arounds of the regs, I will burn your ass. Geithner just clutches his pearls. Big difference.
If you look at it that Geithner thinks that the financial system is sound, that it just is having a rough patch, at worst there were a few bad apples, then his stand on regulation is quite understandable. Just create some mechanisms for some marginally increased oversight but don’t change anything, not even naked CDSs. IOW Geithner does not want, and even more, does not think necessary, more and greater regulation.
I can’t disagree with any of that.
I definitely agree with that.
Yeah, but what if I want it on a specific house, one that is conveniently located next to a gas station and recycled bottle return? I’m no expert, but I wasn’t born yesterday, and I suspect that my scenario is closer to how naked CDSs have worked than yours is.
As an individual, I can’t control overall property values. But, if I can insure my neighbor’s house without risk to myself, then it could maybe burn down at a convenient moment–I’m just saying. Hedge funds have the power to do with whole sections of the economy what I could maybe do to my neighbor’s place.
Bring them into the light. I can not stand another moment of this shell game. Have all the CDS brought out and registered. After a full accounting, then we can make some informed desicions about the value of these products.
The whole problem with our current financial structure is that it is tilted towards the MOTU, the rich and the powerful. Those of us who are peons and, because of what the MOTU sold to all the corporations, our sole retirement is now the 401K. The entire idea is that we pay money to mutual funds-approved by our corporation-and then pay them again to gamble with our money. Then with our retirement hopes rashly inflated(re the Enron worker bees)they pull the rug out from under our feet, all the while telling the majority of us-who are totally ignorant of how wall st acts and why-that our investments are safe. And we the people, with dreams of big houses in sunny climes and a long happy retirement, bought into that dream. At least the “bright” idea of the MOTU and the rethug nation to place our FDIC earnings into the stock market has died the death it deserves. The ONLY people who would have made money on that scheme were the stock brokers who sold the idea to the rethugs.
Just like the scheme sold to homeowning middle america that we should all take out home equity loans and buy “STUFF” and that maxing out our credit cards-re bush telling everyone to go shopping while a very small minority shouldered the duty of fighting and dying for our country.
The major question is, why on earth would anyone expect anything different? Our country is not set up to provide any real “rights” to the worker bees. It took severe crashs in the past to get the 40 hour work week, unions, child labor laws and the minimum wage. Let no one believe that those who make the rules(those who have the gold) are in any way altrustic when it comes to those of us who actually work for a living.
Our country has already left the basic framework of the Republic that was founded back in the day when peoples word was their bond. We have become, whether we understand it or not, a new country. One that places the idea of the corporation above all else. Our federal govt gives them billions in business welfare, our state and local govts give them years of tax breaks. All so people can be employed and pay taxes that enrich their employers. We are told to buy stuff we do not need to fill a need that does not exist, all so that the few at the top of the pile get richer. When our dreams of joining that select group come close, the stock market we were depending on, goes south. Thus putting us back in our place. Haggard and debt ridden.
We continue to believe that this time it will be different. It won’t. Bushvilles are starting to pop up around cities, the same way that hoovervilles popped up during the depression. Nothing changes. The banker always wins, the MOTU continue to rake in millions every year. The populism that the rethugs are attempting to stir up will, I believe, turn on them because they are the party of the fat cat, the MOTU, the wealthy banker, the “old money”.
Is it time to bring out the torchs and pitchforks? It is past time. The rethugs have sown the wind, let them-dispite all their lies and attempts to blame everything on Obama-reap the whirlwind.
It could be that I am wrong,maybe the the multis will not totally take over everything and everyone. Maybe my vision is too dark. Maybe community organizers-like Obama-will be able to place we the people back into the equation, make the US something it has never been, a place where the worker does not have to live paycheck to paycheck, a medical emergency away from a bushville. But I don’t think so. Our country has always stressed commerce over the rights of the individual. I do not see that changing. Hell, 1/2 the cabinet is for business, what protection is there for the worker? Hell, the rethug govs don’t even want the unemployed to get unemployment benefits.
The old saying, What is good for GM is good for the country is still in force, except now we include all business.
The idiots and dimwits who run the financial corporations in this country, proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that they were only out for themselves, to hell with the companies and the shareholders. The congress, 95% bought and paid for by BB-big business-passed whatever laws these corps wanted. Their crooked congresspersons connived with the crooked rethuglician and democtatic administrations to place the majority of the workers in jeopardy. We don’t matter at all, except during election season, after which we are once more discarded, in favor of those with money
Naked Credit Default Swaps
The buyer of a CDS does not need to own the underlying security or other form of credit exposure; in fact the buyer does not even have to suffer a loss from the default event.[2][3][4] By contrast, to purchase insurance the insured is generally expected to have an insurable interest such as owning a debt.
So the underlying asset owner has to pay the default although they did not
enter into an agreement? So I buy insurance on your house (not possible)and when you default or fall behind on your mortgage you have to pay me?
The swaps have to go. Bubdling mortgages have to stop. If bank A mortgages my property and sells it to Bank B and they issue/sell securities for a nice fee…then noone knows who owns what so refi becomes restricted. The bank B balance sheet has the tittle to a property that lost 50% and the balance sheet has to be restated and a cash reserve increase is required but bank B does not have the cash…thay are bankrupt.
Geithner’s “Big Regulation Plan” is more smoke and mirrors.
The banks were thriving on points and fees and the underlying values were ignored. The house of cards fell now they want to be able to do it again?
The head of our county retirement fund said that the employees union is looking at a bigger share of cost…with hiring freezes a year old…now large layoffs will occur. Bugget cuts hit the social services safety net the hardest and services to the needy will be cut further (social services).
Curiouser and curiouser ….
AIG’s insurance exposure on naked swaps probably extends into the many trillions. This is why $3 – $4 trillion in Fed & Treasury injections through various facilities since mid 2007 have done nothing to free up credit markets. Insolvency simply isn’t the same as illiquidity.
The world economy was artificially inflated by real leveraged contracts creating imaginary paper wealth estimated in the hundreds of trillions.
Obama’s Geithner Gambit is designed to leverage a massive U.S. treasury debt bubble to reinflate the global economy near top of the market levels. This preserves the system and its largest players at the expense of taxpayers and Main Street’s economy.
Watching Geithner’s lips move, I thought: Is there any real danger that Glass-Steagal or SEC Act regulation will be imposed on Wall Street and global investment flows? If there were, stock market indices at best would have done nothing, and at worst would have fallen further over the past month.
AIGFP is not in the regular insurance business. It’s in the Don Corleone insurance business. And extortion is not the same as cooperation for mutual benefit.
Leave it to Digby to call AIG’s cooperation for what it is.
These unregulated markets are no different from back room poker games. The state has no business paying off debts or making legitimate the betting. The choice should have been to remove the activities from “the finance industry” and any legitimacy.
What I don’t understand is, why if the volume is so large, content so complex and losses so great, disputes about the betting are not coming out in overt public activity. It can only be that the participants (like in illegal gaming and illegal animal abuse such as cock and dog fights) would prefer to pay off each other’s accounts quietly and are using the public parts of the system (banks, bankers, investment houses, insurance companies) to indirectly fund the shortfalls in collateral. This is not really acceptable.
I agree.
George W. Bush says he understanderates it.
Dick Cheney says that if there’s even a one percent chance it was insured by UBS, then we are obliged to obliterate them.
President Obama is doing an online town hall and hasn’t said anything ignorant about it.
/s
no no no, not the asset holder, the firm which sold the CDS ‘insurance’ is supposed to pay off.
A has a house.
B wants to bet on it burning to the ground.
C sells a naked CDS to B.
House burns.
B makes claim to C.
C pays B (if he can’t go to court and stall for all eternity).
The biggest problem with this is that a lot of people have nearly perfected ‘talking a stock down’ and if they can insure on it’s downfall, then they can essentially burn it down with talk.
Destructive Capitalism, where you gain relative to somebody else whose house you’ve torched, is horrendous and is killing us.
If naked CDSs were entirely separate from the rest of the financial world and they were regulated as insurance requiring reserves and no risk averse funds could be bled over into it, then it might not be as bad.
But, as with insurance and bank funds getting into the hands of AIGFP there is the question of how to keep things separate.
For people who are okay with buying stock and watching it rise or fall they have it made. For people who want to short stock and feel limited there is the possibility of gambling with naked CDSs.
There have been a lot of complaints about stock shorting, but with very large amounts of money (potentially) on the line with NCDSs there is a very real question of whether a firm’s interest in a NCDS would necessarily influence their behavior with regard to all their other substantial and real investments.
How could you ever keep one from influencing the other?
The obvious follow-up question would be what value he thinks they do have.
“The biggest problem with this is that a lot of people have nearly perfected ‘talking a stock down’ and if they can insure on it’s downfall, then they can essentially burn it down with talk.”
Actually no, and Geithner is correct about what the biggest problem is. It’s that C doesn’t have to show that he has the money to pay until payment time.
You are talking about shorting stocks, really, not CDS, which are gambles on nonpayment, not future values.