The AIG bonuses were a distraction. Even the counter-parties of AIG is a distraction, in that the real bottom line is this: all of the different programs announced so far, from the first firebreaks which were supposed to "contain" the "sub-prime crisis" – ah for the days when serious people could blame this on a few, implicitly non-white, borrowers – to the present put money in the same place. That "money" is really a place holder for future tax revenues. It is not money in the sense of money that will be used to go out and buy new things, but money which is meant to prevent banks from being technically insolvent, and to provide enough liquidity so that a market in the complex financial bets can be made. The bonuses handed out to executives and others, are their share of the take for having arranged a government bail out.
But it’s time to dig at the root of the problem and face that problem more directly: it is not the mechanics of the financial crisis which are at issue. It is America’s addiction to imported capital. It is not that we have a "global savings glut" but that the United States is a deficit culture which is overspending on many of the wrong things. Changing this reality is not something that a President, any President can do. Indeed the current structure of the Senate allows a relatively small set of beneficiaries to hold hostage the larger economy.
One of the first steps to change is to realize that the left is divided into three different groups, and, to date, rather small and even petty personal feuds have done more damage than good. Solving these personal divisions, driven by professional ambitions more than a genuine concern for the good of the country, will do more to advance change in America than any single government program that could be proposed. At the root of these divisions is an almost universally unstated three part division of much of the left in America – a left which is not, on the global scale, all that far to the left.
The first of these groups is the financial left. This motto of this group is "a rising tide lifts all boats," and its intellectual roots reach back even to the era of "gold Democrats" such as Grover Cleveland. The advantages of this view point are many. First, it has a direct opposite numbers among the Republicans. It does not rock the boat in terms of the structure of elites. Finance also has an almost magical quality, in that it can heal an economy rather rapidly – as soon as the blocked arteries of lending are cleared, good times return. Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and yes, Barack Obama are all members of this wing of the left. The idea is to produce efficiencies and distribute the benefits widely. This wing has risen to being the most important wing of the party, particularly with the rise of money in media politics. The financial wing of the party is the wing that does most of the funding of the left, with its large donors and clear understanding of benefits. Suburban voters are drawn to this wing, because it represents the office dwelling middle class. The public discourse is driven, to no small extent by those who invest their future in this system, and those who manage that money.
The second of these groups is the labor left. This group is centered on the concerns of "working Americans." The labor left provides much of the operational muscle of the Democratic Party. This wing of the Democratic Party which is the political bedrock in much of the urban areas of the party. It is the wing that FDR’s labor reforms enabled, which the Second World War and Post-War era made fundemental to the security of the United States. It is the wing that has fallen farthest in power and influence, in that, at one time, the Democratic Party was firmly rooted in the Congress in its labor wing. The labor wing is not adverse to the system as it is, but believes that that system should be far more directed to a greater good for a greater number. Many of the bricks and mortar liberal organizations such as EPI and the CEPR, are rooted in this view. Many of the heros of modern liberalism were the architects of its ideas, truisms, and theories.
The third of these groups is a left that has taken on many labels. It is the most progressive of the wings, and is rooted in a longer term vision for change in America than either of the first two groups. It sees the long term threats to America, and indeed the world, and desires, or even demands, that action to prevent the worst possible outcomes be pursued. It is this group that sees global warming and peak oil as dramatic threats to global stability. It is this group that most strongly advises large structural changes in the American polity, and in the mechanisms by which it operates. For members of this group, universal health care is not a goal, it is a means to restructuring the American economy itself.
One of the key divisions between these groups is their concept of what America’s national rent is. For the first group, the continuation of the financial system is the central national rent, that thing which America’s preëminence in the world rests upon. This is why the Obama administration is focusing so much on the banking crisis, because the collapse of this rent seems, to them, catastrophic.
The second group’s view of the national rent developed during the times of mass mobilization for warfare, in a sense it was Lincoln’s observation about labor being prior to capital is the basis for this view, but it was with a series of crisis points that required mass mobilization that it became rooted in the very formalisms of goverment itself. World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and the first part of the Cold War, were all dealt with by mobilization responses.
The third group’s view of America’s national rent is based in the belief that there are broad and global threats which are not rooted in particular enemies, or particular points of crisis, but in the nature of the human condition and our relationship with the world we live in. It has a diversity of antecedants, from techno-utopian visions from Star Trek, to the sense of nobility of the free soil found in Steinbeck. It is anti-consumer, in the sense that consumption as the first priority seems to contradict the need to manage resources and deal with problems before they explode.
In the current political universe, the financial view is under a cloud because of the current economic crisis. It seems that the prescriptions of financial deregulation, balanced budgets, and centrism have failed, but have not yet lost the faith of the inside of the corridors of power. Anger is rising at the seeming incrementalism of the solutions, the focus on bailing out bankers, rather than on getting America’s workforce moving again, and at the confused message. However, since there has been no cohesive counter plan yet enunciated, and there is no other core of political activity that the public trusts, it is the dominant political wing of the left in America.
The second view is far more represented in Congress, with old "liberal lions" identified with it, and a large number of representatives who rose with a clear mandate from their voters to revive the union movement in America, and use that movement to protect, or even expand, the interests and entitlements that once were taken for granted as part of having a good job in America. Its problems run deep, in that mobilization has not been seen as the basic national rent for some time, and the methods of mobilization liberalism have been in disrepute both with the right, and another segment of the left, since Vietnam and the inflation of the 1970′s seemed to disprove the entire concept that a mobilization of national will could overcome almost all problems.
The third view has both the longest and the shortest political history. In one sense techno-visionairies, and searchers for a personal autonomy, find very direct expression in the founding documents of the United States of America. The Declaration of Independence mentions many things as essential, but banks are not mentioned at all. The Constitution touchs on coinage and free trade, but the Bill of Rights and other guarantees of rights that it has, are not largely cast in economic terms. However, it is also the newest member of the Democratic coalition as a force of growing organization, it has almost no representatives, it has few institutions, and none of long standing – even though it has an hypnotic resonance which has drawn millions into it.
Reconciling these three views is the political work of the left in the present. Right now, there is far too narrow a range of opinion within the corridors of power, and the debate on the left has had people talking past each other. Instead of cogent criticism, there is a great deal of political manuevering for positions. It is far easier to keep score at Treasury than to combine widely different policy directions. It is far easier to exclude indivduals who are not from the right club, than it is to piece together legislation from all of them.
However, until this happens, the left will remain scattered and unable to reach closure on the single most important political objective of the present: namely, foreclosing a neo-conservative right whose views are responsible for this economic meltdown, and for the paucity of options. It was not Democratic Presidents who racked up the national debt to stratospheric levels. While many members of the Democratic Party were involved with, or acquiescent to, the war in Iraq, it was a policy driven by ideas of the right.
This remnant political force, given political form by Nixon, and political spirit by Reagan, is still entrenched in media, and in corporations. It has a voting bloc in the Senate which is larger than any liberal bloc, and it has a discipline which the Democratic Party does not have. Until the three views of the left are unified, and all of the various important players in those views brought into a single fluid discourse of ideas, there will be a start and stop quality, as a few people attempt to use political leverage to end run what is really a very difficult intellectual and social debate. The ambivalence this creates – with people wholy supportive of a successfu Obama Administration, and the exciting potential for a new progressive era, while being angry at the possibility of a Carter-style meltdown of governance – is destructive to the progressive of the progressive idea, and against the inevitable historical logic of the Democratic Party as its instrument.



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I am from a fourth wing, the grammar-nazi left. When deciding whether to use “its” or “it’s”, please see if “it is” can be used in its place. If it can’t, use “its”.
And now, back to the comments.
Obama, product of part three, needs to be pulled back into the fold. The metaphorical engine needs more than a tuneup. The large institutions (banks, corporations, big media, etc) need to be broken. More aptly, there needs to be a recognition that they are broke and no longer serve their masters. (us)
I understand the allure of the first view.
I understand the drive behind the second view.
I embrace the third view as the one that needs to be in the “driver’s seat.”
My $.02
You didn’t mention the Left exemplified by Mike Davis or Bernie Sanders.
Stirling, I have been a fan of your analysis since I first read your stuff over at BOP and your days at TPM, and this one — short by your usual standards — does not disappoint.
I agree whole-heartedly with your description of the various parties within the American left and that all of it hardly qualifies as “left” by global standards.
How do you see this situation playing out over the course of the Obama Administration and beyond?
The right may be in disarray for now, but they do now and will continue to maintain that tiny but quasar-dense core of money and power that will always provide a gravitational-field for like-minded parties. Nixon and then Reagan were able to siphon off the “Reagan-Democrats” from FDR’s unruly coalition by manipulating that right-wing gravitational field through the use of cultural wedge issues, masking their larger, more rapacious agenda.
Will Obama be able to do something similar, in your opinion, and create a left-of-center ruling coalition in the flux of the current instability — or do you think he’s too inside the box of the current architecture of American power (Exhibits A through X: Geithner and Summers, et. al)? And if he somehow does, will it or even can it incorporate the broad-view, quasi-utopian left (of which this author is a member)?
Again, thank you for your always trenchant analysis. And thank you in advance if you choose to address my questions.
I wonder why the first group is included at all. There’s nothing “left” about it, even though it happens to be (unfortunately) housed in the D party. Nevertheless, it is considerably to the right of Reagan and Thatcher, and in cahoots with the worst of the Rs.
naomi klein, joseph stiglitz, starhawk, william greider, bill moyer, ralph nader, derrick jensen, noam chomsky, george lakey, amy goodman, jeremy scahill, gene sharp,…..
just some random names off the top of my head.
This remnant political force, given political form by Nixon, and political spirit by Reagan, is still entrenched in media_________________
If I may be so bold,ofcourse it is, because that is the time frame in which the media-and the FCC -which was supposed to belong to public air waves,btw-became the province of the corporate interests ,financed in turn,back then and still now-by the military industrial complex.
Is anyone familiar with Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell address,and references to the future influence upon our society of the military-industrial complex’s behemoth tentacles?[Coincidentally,I was reading it again earlier today.]
And who owns NBC but GE? There’s a primo example of Cold War Neo-Conia if I ever saw one,iho,and with all due respect.
[Count me in as one of your admirers from TPM,also.]
corporatists.
Stirling:
Even with the big wins by the D party in the last election,we all, as you clearly point out, have much to do.
It does seem that the 3rd wing, the real progressives with long visions, have actually had some post-election effect on Pres. Obama, and if he does respond to some pure progressive push (alliteration unintentional) then good for him, and us.
I hope, anyway . . .
Dugg right here — please join me!
Gee, maybe it should have been entitled “The Three Faces of Eve?”,since the left seems to have multiple personalities vying for dominance?
Book Salon upstairs Equal: Women Reshape American
It should be clear, whether you are the left or right or somewhere in between, that global, consumer based economies cannot work simply because they cannot create anywhere near the necessary number of jobs for people to earn livings. It is equally clear that when you have large concentrations of wealth you cannot support consumer based economies. There isn’t sufficient money out there for the consumers who buy stuff. Rich people do not buy Chevrolets. While they buy multiple houses, their house purchases are not nearly enough to maintain a housing industry and most of their homes are not in this country. Capitalism has got to go, but in the near term we need to tax the wealthy to put their stagnant wealth into circulation. Printing money, the scenario du jour, is not sustainable and will come to a bad end. That could turn out to be a good thing.
Somehow, I have the sense that this post will be ruminating around my brain for the next few days, because it says so much about the times in which we live and the problems we face.
Understandably, the first group obsesses on capital, and on ‘flows’ in markets. Which explains why they allowed mathematical equations that originated in the fields of physics and applied mathematics (called ‘Navier Stokes’ equations) to become the basis for predicting global economic behavior. Then ask why they started to base the world’s bond markets on things they didn’t even understand.
It turns out that youtube has some terrific visualizations of different Navier-Stokes equations. For one especially lovely example, see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU-MBRb5gBQ
Note that the youtube has techno-music, and the movie is actually generated by complex computer code. Ask how well that fits economic theories rooted in the 1920s and 1930s.
I’d like Larry Summers, or Timothy Geithner, or AIG’s Liddy, or Sen Phil Gramm, or Sen Dodd, or Sen Shelby, or former SEC Chair Cox to actually explain to any of us what a Navier-Stokes equation is, or what it was designed to measure or predict. I don’t think any of them could answer.
Then pose that same question to Pandit of Citigroup, or any of the bankers or mortgage lenders: what is a Navier-Stokes equation, and how does it work? Just ask them to watch even that one youtube link that I’ve included, and then say, “Please explain to all of us who are bailing out your sorry, secrecy-obsessed asses, HOW these equations actually work.”
I seriously doubt they’d be able to do it.
Because when you actually start looking at the very complex equations the CDOs and CDSs are built on, you discover some very interesting problems with predictability, scale, and accuracy.
After that, ask them why WIRED magazine appears to have out-reported everyone else about the nature of the problems with the code operating those CDOs and CDSs.
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/i…..3/wp_quant
That should reduce to first group to a chastened heap of humiliated bankers, traders, brokers, and related finance sector unemployed. Reassure them that a more optimistic future lies with whatever vision the third group is madly working on.
Explain to the second group that the third group realizes capital was given far too much deference, and labor too little. And that the third group would like their views going forward.
Then, it sure looks to me like the third group has plenty of work ahead building the future. And they may want to leave Navier-Stokes equations mostly out of it.
There is also the libertarian left. The favored vehicle of this group is the social dividend/basic income. Instead of bailing out capitalist institutions let the people be the vehicle of the bail out. $1,000 a month for every person in america would be a good start(that’s $4,000 a month for a family of four), and it would not reward any “bad behavior”, except of course for octuplet lady.
There are no true leftists or progressives who abide capitalism.
What has happened in the finance sector is that banks, the money lenders decided that the function of raising capital for industry was just plain boring. When they became publicly traded corporations they were under pressure to produce more profit than interest differential on loans and deposits and the fees for transactions. That’s not to say that they haven’t made a pile with transaction fees.
But the big bucks for the owners of banks and financial institutions came with the creation of “financial products” which all use leverage to make use returns. Supplying capital to industry and processing checks became small compared to the trillions in derivatives, CDS, CDOs LBOs and all sort’s of arcane financial shenanigans. Not only that, but the trading system was completely corrupted and hedge funds began trading in millions of shares of stocks they never even owned to raid corporations with naked short selling and make huge and largely untaxed gains in the tens of billions. Using money to make money. And this sucked all the money out of the main street economy.
One need not explain all the wrong things about THIS financial system to know that it is anti democratic and certainly does not raise the standards for all. In fact, it has lowered them for almost all at the expense of the few very very wealthy. And it will again if it is allowed to survive.
Capitalism does not serve the people, it exploits them.
yea, what about the left that wants to see the whole thing go up in flames so they can try their “revolution” again?
Excellent. Really helpful, Stirling. And so, “what is to be done?” — to pull this potential coalition into a coherent movement?
Sander O @ 17:
“These capitalists generally act harmoniously and in concert, to fleece the people.” Abraham Lincoln.
Yea, Mao and Stalin were the answer. But why stop there, there must be a Pol Pot out there ready to really get rid of the capitalists.
Sure that’s not spelled “Ravin’?
More equations which show complexity in closed systems, under steady state input. All of which are valid in their closed system, but completely invalid in an open system (the economy), where there are a large supply of exogenous events (earthquakes, fires, planes crashing, wars, etc).
You can add Ito’s Lemma, Li’s complete bull, missing the constraints of similar populations, and the condition “at this instant”, which were applied to a complex system with strange attractors, discrete unpredictable large events, and non-linear feedback (aka: The Real World).
And then pretended to “predict” the future. They would have been as accurate as a crystal ball. The crystal ball method would at least be questioned.
Navier-Stokes can barely predict the passage of a ship through the sea, with sea and wind effects (the wave & wind effects are never constant), and with exogenous events, hits a reef, a whale or nearly submerged container, fails completly.
Capitalism does not serve the people, it exploits them.
What would you prefer? Feudalism? Marxism? They did not serve the people either.
The current system more resembles Feudalism than a Free Republic. For what is a corporation, or any large institution but a Feudal Barony, where one lives in fear of one’s life (being fired).
If democracy is suitable for the country, it should be the form of Governance favored in the Country’s institutions. It is not.
@22-ravin’:
To:
Posted: Nov 07 03 12:31 PM
Message: 816.1 (1 of 1)
Here’s an interesting bit of history that all
Republicans should be aware of:
The Long Secret Alliance – Uncle Sam and Pol Pot
The US not only helped create conditions that brought Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge to power in 1975, but actively supported the genocidal force, politically and financially.
By January 1980, the US was secretly funding Pol Pot’s exiled forces on the Thai border. The extent of this support-$85 million from 1980 to 1986-was revealed six years later in correspondence between congressional lawyer Jonathan Winer, then counsel to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation.
Winer said the information had come from the Congressional Research Service (CRS). When copies of his letter were circulated, the Reagan administration was furious. Then, without adequately explaining why, Winer repudiated the statistics…
http://www.users.bigpond.com/n…..liance.htm
We do not have a left in any power positions. The Democratic Party was taken over by the Eisenhower business Republicans who were repulsed by the far right who had infested their party and the Democratic leaders who wanted in at the trough. Those old Democrats abandoned the labor left and the left of Dr. King i.e. the economic justice left. So they hooked up with Rubinomics which is the smiley faced version of Friedmanomics. But it’s the same old feudalism gussied up to look modern. It’s the corporatocracy. Or Oligarchy.
There are voices on the left as mentioned above; Chomsky, Goodman, Zinn, Naomi Klein, Jeremy Scahill, Doug Henwood, Paul Street, David Korten, blackagendareport.com.
I wouldn’t dismiss working people and the labor movement and fix all hopes on the middle class reformers called progressives. A coalition of the left made up of the rising leaders in Central and South America could be a way out of this. They have been through the Shock Doctrine. Food is at the center of the coming crisis. Maybe we should go back to the Farm/Labor type coalition and form a new party made up of people who want to control our own food, water, and energy supplies. And who want to keep everything small and sustainable. We could even get libertarians to go along with that.
The Democratic Party is going down because of this debacle. Let’s save our energy for building something good that could rise up out of its ashes. If we don’t, here come the law and order not so smiley faced Republicans waiting in the wings.
Oh that’s just crazy, are you Ravin mad? :)
Food is at the center of the coming crisis.~~~~~~~~~~~How correct you are,without me sounding like a know it all.
Yesterday,there was a thread here about food and the politics thereof…
There is a stupendous site called Global Research.ca that has abundant info from worldwide sources on the issues of basic human sustenance-and the integrity,thereof.Also, info about genetically modified crops.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the book,Seeds of Destruction,by William Engdahl. Superior resources,imho.
Would I be incorrect in assuming that the old Democrats that jumped ship were later termed the “Dixiecrats”, forerunners of the Southern Republicans?
If I’m not mistaken,in the ’60’s ,when LBJ signed the federal voting rights act,he stated that he had just signed away the Democratic party to the Republicans for the next forty years.
Is anybody here familiar with the concept of corporate personhood?
Jacob Russell’s Barking Dog: End Corporate Personhood! Corporate personhood is at the core of all of our problems. Ending it is the start of the way back to humane civilization. …
jacobrussellsbarkingdog.blogspot.com/2008/12/end-corporate-personhood.html – 162k – Cached – Similar pages
UNDERNEWS: NADER: TIME TO CHALLENGE CORPORATE PERSONHOOD IN COURT Justice Scalia said he had not put much thought into unconstitutional corporate personhood, but if a case was brought before him on the …
prorev.com/2008/10/nader-time-to-challenge-corporate.html – 63k – Cached – Similar pages
Daily Kos: State of the Nation And yes, the idea and precedent of corporate personhood should be abolished. …… Abolishing corporate personhood does not abolish corporations. …
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/7/30/22953/7787 – 860k – Cached – Similar pages
SSRN-The Ambiguous Significance of Corporate Personhood by David … Millon, David K.,The Ambiguous Significance of Corporate Personhood(January 2001). Stanford Agora: An Online Journal of Legal Perspectives. …
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=264141 – Similar pages
by D Millon – Cited by 5 – Related articles
[PDF] Abolish Corporate Personhood File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat – View as HTML
about corporate personhood. This talk is about 20 minutes long. We’re gathered together tonight … The absurdity of corporate personhood has that effect on …
http://www.wilpf.org/docs/ccp/corp/AC…..d_Talk.pdf – Similar pages
The problem is not corporate personhood. That is a legal concept that has been recognized since time immemorial, and includes municipalities, universities, societies, and all collective bodies recognized under law. The problem is much more specific: the interpretation of the 14th amendment as giving corporate persons equal rights with natiural persons.
Thanks for the lucidity of this essay. I don’t identify with any of the three; further left than all, but don’t know how to articulate what that means for myself, much less in dialogue with the other three. Just know this present reality hurts almost as much as the pre-1/20/09 reality. Lord have mercy…..
Awesome. I knew if I came looking for a linkage to rents (”It’s all about the fees, baby!”) I’d find it here (the linker who directed me to this post didn’t mention this key analytical tool).
However, while the explanation of “national rent” for views #1 and #2 is a model of clarity, #3 seems vague. In fact, it is vague: What is one to make of a national rent based on “the nature of the human condition”? I suggest, however, that the vagueness reflects the fact that #3 hasn’t yet figured out what its vision of the national rent might be. I have an even vaguer feeling that the notion of rent in #3 is based on the idea that there really are no “externalities,” since “the world is round” (if you haven’t read Marge Piercy’s Woman on the Edge of Time, now out of print, do so…)
Thank you for this great post.
it’s [its] Show IPA
1. contraction of it is: It’s starting to rain.
2. contraction of it has: It’s been a long time.
from reference dot com
“it is” is “it’s” and “its” signifies the possessive case, ie, belonging to it