Juan, Welcome to the Lake.

Robert, Thank you for Hosting this Book Salon.

Thanks, Bev; glad to be here. Good afternoon, Juan.

Thanks so much for the precis of the book, Robert. It is nice to be here the day President Obama issued a conciliatory address to Iran on the occasion of the advent of the Persian New Year (which is celebrated in many places outside Iran, as well). Let’s hope there is a chance for a new approach.

Juan,

This book is, essentially, a response to misconceptions about Islam, some of which are the result of active distortions. Who specifically do you think of this work as a response to? There has been no end of works that distort our understanding of modern Islam; should this be treated as a general refutation, or are there specific books or arguments that you found problematic?

Convenient timing for us! What did you think of the Obama address?

Robert,

The book is addressed to both the new Obama administration and to the general American public. What I have discovered from blogging current events in the Middle East, and US foreign policy in the area, is that there is an enormous thirst for solid information and analysis on the region both among policy-makers and among people from all walks of life. So it is an attempt to clarify key issues by someone who studies these things 24/7

Professor Cole, thank you for joining us this afternoon.

I have not read your book so I apologize if you answer this question in there but here goes:

How do we engage the average US citizen with the notion that “Muslim” is not a pejorative?

How do we go about working with the Iranians AND the Israelis AND all the other players in the Middle East without perpetuating the image of the colonialist empire?

Welcome. I was unable to obtain a copy of your just-released book in time for this salon, but I’ve read recent entries in your blog, including your radio interview, and have a slew of Qs.

The first: Obama’s Now-Ruz message seems to have been dismissed by Iran as a gimmick with no substantive changes to back it up. Or at least that’s what I picked up. Is that an accurate characterization of Iran’s response? Will they be equally stubborn as the U.S. in demanding pre-conditions for talks?

I just want to personally welcome you to the lake and tell you that I have been an avid reader at your blog for a very long time.

What you have written has become must reading for anyone who seeks to know more about the Muslem World.

We are honored to have you here.

As a technical note, if you hit the reply button at the end of each comment, it will tell both you and other readers who you are addressing and make it easier for everyone to follow.

Juan, welcome to FDL — thanks so much for the book and for all of your work the last few years trying to bring analysis back into the public discourse in a measured, fact-based way. And Robert, thanks so much for doing such a wonderful introduction for the book salon today.

Juan — if you could pinpoint the three most important steps for the Obama administration to take right now, what would they be?

The opinion polling shows that there is little prejudice toward Muslims among Americans who actually know an American Muslim. So it seems to me that get-togethers are among the best ways to fight that discrimination. If you are in a community group or church or synagogue, have a party and invite members of the local Muslim community. Of course, it is also good if people read about the religion– John Esposito’s books are clear and concise, for instance, or Reza Aslan. But I actually think that the millions of American Muslims, who are good, decent people, are the biggest resource here.

And if I can follow up, do you think Obama’s target was the Iranian government, or the Iranian people? And would you presume that these audiences might have interpreted it differently?

A second Iran Q. What is the status of CIA and Special Ops activity inside the country? Is there a lot of it? Is it disruptive, as the U.S. would wish, or is it a failure from U.S. POV?

What happens if we get out of Iraq and Afghanistan? Are we helping, hurting, accomplishing anything by staying there?
By staying or leaving how can we do the job better?
Or should we just accept that its not worth he cost.

I blogged the Obama speech briefly last night:

http://www.juancole.com/2009/0…..w-ruz.html

and also linked to Farideh Farhi’s good comments.

I haven’t had a chance to read the Persian of the Iranian responses. I wouldn’t jump to conclusions– there is a lot of nuance in Persian. But obviously the US has overthrown one Iranian government and put economic boycotts on this one, so they will want to see some concrete signs of earnest.

What do you think of Chris Hill as ambassador to Iraq (assuming he gets confirmed)?

Where do we think Al Quidea is getting its cash from and are the countries that fund them trying or even able to stop the funding?

Hi, Christy.

Yes, when Colbert kept saying “it is on this show” I was tempted to reply, “well I’m an emissary from the reality-based world.” But he is the master of the quip. :-)

Three concrete steps Obama can take:

1. Withdraw from Iraq but make good political arrangements so it does not fall apart afterwards (e.g. there needs to be a compact between the Kurds and Arabs over who gets what.)

2. Move quickly to the declaration of Palestinian state and new elections in the West Bank and Gaza. This move would include granting Palestinian citizenship to the Israeli settlers and placing them under Palestinian law, with the ability to vote. That is, Palestine will be multicultural just as Israel is. Further Israeli immigration would depend on the permission of the Palestinian legislature. If Netanyahu won’t cooperate, just do it anyway.

3. Offer Iran a grand bargain– 1) airtight international guarantees that no military or covert attempt will be made to overthrow the government. 2) UN and US sanctions lifted in return for cessation of nuclear enrichment and 3) international help in developing Iran’s enormous natural gas fields.

This has been the approach that Muslims have taken in Lexington, KY; have helped sponsor some interfaith gatherings, and a variety of talks. Hard to measure how it has worked out, of course.

What do you think of Eikenberry as ambassador to Afghanistan?

Any thoughts about the strange bedfellows in the U.S. search for new supply routes into Afghanistan? Potential openings, or potential pitfalls?

Afghan election?

Ayatollah Khameini said that Obama’s rhetoric is not enough – from cnn

Chris Hill is an experienced career diplomat and I expect him to do an excellent job. He has far more relevant experience than Paul Bremer did, about whom Hill’s current critics never said anything.

The old al-Qaeda of Usama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri has had its command and control and organizational capacity, including fundraising, devastated. I doubt they have much money any more. They seem to be just hiding out.

But al-Qaeda’s destructive operations were never expensive. 9/11 probably cost $500,000. Usama’s father was a billionaire, though Usama himself has probably run through all his inheritance.

On #2, the “if Netanyahu won’t cooperate” would seem to be the sticking point; the Obama administration can certainly do some of what you suggest without Israeli collaboration (and the presence of A. Lieberman may encourage them to be more confrontational with Netanyahu), but there would seem to be some hard ceilings on what can be accomplished without Israeli cooperation.

I did my own little enlightenment. Attended the Friday service at the mosque at 96 & Third in NYC about a year after 9/11. I think I might have been the only non-Muslim visitor, since they seemed quite surprised at my inquiry. Hopefully they’ve done more outreach to the non-Muslim community by now.

How is the economic crisis hitting Muslim countries? Anti everything groups seem to spring up in economic crisis. As does Protest songs, Anti Authority Heavy Metal, Punk etc Music
Are the young in Muslim countries joining anti everything groups (they don’t have to be terror groups), is there culture’s art, songs etc showing protest, anger, whatever?
I’m just wondering how widespread the problem is.
I keep playing Ozzy’s “War Pigs ” and think of Rummy.

Thank you for being here, Professor Cole.

We keep hearing that thousands have joined Al Qaeda’s cause, is it not realistic to assume that they have had a corresponding rise in donations, which they have hidden as well as their main Leadership ?

How would Obama be able to get suggestion 2 going?

Awesome question :)

Thanks for the link. I should have linked it myself. That’s exactly what I was talking about.

It is hard for me to imagine how a continued big American military presence inside Iraq would be useful for security. The US has few troops up north, where there are increasing tensions between Kurds and Arabs, and would be in a difficult position politically anyway. Do you support the elected central government, or do you support your best and most loyal local allies (the Kurds)? If you support the Kurds, how do you avoid offending and harming your NATO ally, Turkey?

As for the Sunni Arab provinces, now that they have their own, elected, provincial governments, and with the new alliances Sunni Arabs are making with the Da’wa Party of Nuri al-Maliki, there is some hope for Arab/Arab reconciliation of a sort not apparent a year ago.

In the Shiite south, the US has already largely withdrawn, and al-Maliki’s army is showing itself capable of patrolling and fighting short engagements (they still have poor logistics for longer ones).

Time to get out of Iraq.

Thanks for coming by Professor Cole. I have not yet had the opportunity to read your book but it will happen soon. I take it you were pretty ecstatic to be on the Colbert Report. *g*.
Do I recall that Madeline Albright made some overtures during the Clinton administration. What ever happened with that?

What do you think of the Chas Freeman affair? That would seem to throw any progress in Palestine into a cocked hat, if Obama can’t even have an advisor who thinks that the Palestinian POV should be considered. Note that no one in the administration fought to keep him, which reveals a lot about the continued bias to Israel in this administration.

From a Palestinian point of view, how realistic would it be to ask them to grant the settlers citizenship and the right to vote?

Thank You:)

Cool we agree! What about Afghanistan any ideas?

Iraq seems to have fallen off the radar screens despite the fact that there remains no political settlement there.

It also looks like Obama has reneged on his 16 month or 1 brigade a month withdrawal plan. Now the idea is to reduce the number of troops in Iraq by only about 12,000 or about 3-4 brigades by the end of the year in anticipation of year end elections there. The problem is that those elections may or may not come off as planned. The last ones sure didn’t. They were delayed by years. On top of that, Obama Administration officials are being more and more open in saying that they could keep 50,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely. Why hasn’t Obama’s bail on this gotten wider coverage? Why indeed was it portrayed as the very opposite that he was going ahead with the withdrawal when he very clearly isn’t?

Sorry to butt in here, but Israeli Arabs have about 1/2 the reps in the Israeli parliament than they should have by population. And (Juan correct me if I’m wrong) I think they have never had any important cabinet posts. So I suppose turnabout would be fair play.

American presidents are way too timid about the Israeli political establishment. I don’t understand why.

A two-state solution is still the cleanest and best solution. The US has been committed to it for a long time now. It is the only thing that might save Israel from ultimate dissolution. We are the world’s sole superpower. Netanyahu leads a small country of 7.2 million. Obama should not be afraid to give him marching orders. If the US and the UN Security Council just announces a date for Palestinian independence and elections, what will Israel do? I think it would have to acquiesce, or risk becoming an international pariah like Iran. And Israel doesn’t have Iran’s resources, such that it could survive.

Admittedly, this course would cause a firestorm. But the crisis in Palestine helped cause 9/11 and will generate lots more terrorism, and why should we all be endangered and inconvenienced because a few fanatics from Brooklyn want to illegally settle Hebron?

When the Israeli settlers start lining to accept citizenship in Palestine, I can’t imagine that the Palestinians won’t enjoy granting it to them.

Juan, are the U.S. and Israel still engaged in a Dirty War against Iran, as described by Seymour Hirsh?
Which Democratic Congressional leaders voted to give Bush $400 million to fight the dirty war?
Was Cheney’s hit squad a part of this effort in Iran?
Has the dirty war stopped?

When the Israeli settlers line up for citizenship in Palestine, hell will have frozen over. Ditto any two-state solution. Deader than dead.

How would you explain America to the Muslim World? Why don’t we care about the death we cause? Why doesn’t the Average American even know about it?
Why does the average American feel so powerless to change things they feel are wrong in their society unless the Economy breaks down, Wars are lost, something big etc?
Why can’t we do what is right unless forced?
In the end is the Muslim world any different than us?

Roughly similar to my 14. Would be nice to know.

No, Cole is quite right about this, it’s probably the only thing to do (though there’s probably more fanatics from and still in Brooklyn than he realizes.)

This is a very important point. The Settlers do not want to be Palestinians, they want to expand the boundaries of Israel into Palestinian territory.

Obama hasn’t reneged on his Iraq withdrawal plan, but he has tweaked it.

Iraqi elections can only occur if the US military locks down the country for three days and prevents vehicular traffic, since otherwise the remaining Sunni Arab guerrillas would hit the polling stations with car bombs. Iraq’s military is improving, but it cannot yet perform this function. So I agree about keeping enough troops there to have one more round of elections, at least. After that, they are on their own.

The Federal parliamentary elections have both been held on schedule, and there is no reason to think that they won’t be held in December. If they do slip, it would not be past January or February. Federal elections have too many powerful interests around them to be delayed long. They aren’t like the provincial elections, where the Kurds had their own schedule and the Sunnis were largely powerless, and the dominant Shiite factions in the Federal parliament had every reason to delay. The same dynamic is not there in the Federal elections.

So I think the US will be down to 35,000 or so troops, maybe 50,000 max, in Aug. 2010, and then the army and Marines will be out altogether by the end of 2011. Of course, this assumes that all hell doesn’t break loose. But that, we can’t predict.

Ask White America about letting me vote:).

Juan,

The book is mostly about the United States and the Muslim world, but of course the European countries are also dependent on oil, and many have significant Muslim communities (sometimes several different communities). The European conception of Islam as a “problem,” though, seems to be a lot different than the US; is this the consequence of history, of the presence of Muslims in European borders, or something else? Any thoughts

Just because it’s the “only thing to do” (meaning only ’sensible’ thing to do?) doesn’t mean it will happen.

Re Palestine, I think the two state solution is dead. It has been probably dead for 15 years or about the time that Oslo died with Rabin. Now Israel looks like ii is going increasingly fascist with even so called “moderate” parties like Labor and Kadima behind the demolition of Gaza. They are clearly building an apartheid state and it is not that we may have problems with Netanyahu we will have problems with him. And the likelihood is that the Obama Administration will cave just as it did on the Freeman nomination.

Since when hasn’t the sensible thing happened?

Moving on to Pakistan. How unstable is Zadari’s govt? I read that he’s terribly unpopular. How many more drone attacks by the U.S. can it withstand? I read that the U.S. finally caved on allowing Chaudry back on the Supreme Court. Is that true? Will that further destabilize Pakistan, or the opposite? What will happen in Pakistan if the govt falls apart?

Afghanistan is a tough nut to crack, and always has been for empires.

One problem is that it is too damn resource poor. Its whole gross domestic product is $9 bn., and $4 bn. or so of that is poppies, which feeds narco-terrorism.

You’d need $2 bn. a year just to support a properly sized army, including training and equipment. That is twice the current whole government budget.

Me, I’d set up an internationl endowment for Afghan security. Cautiously invested, $40 bn. should yield 5% a year or $2 bn., which would be the military budget. NATO could save itself a lot of money and lives by just coughing up the $40 bn. and also setting up good monitoring and auditing about how it is spent.

More US & NATO troops is highly unlikely to be the answer.

LOL

What???!!! The pipeline isn’t gonna be Afghanistan’s economic gold mine? I’m shocked.

U.S. troops must stay until the pipeline is built, and after that, they must stay to protect it.

Excuse my cynicism. I’m trying to put to good use everything I’ve learned since 9/11. (Not that U.S. behavior changed post-9/11, I just didn’t know about it before then.)

My $.02 is that Chaudhry’s reinstatement was a hard slap across the face of the Military leaders, who seem to hold the reins of power over any civilian Gov’t.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Coup soon in Pakistan … what a shame.

My only Q is how much ethnic cleansing, or chasing Palestinians out, will the Israelis do.

Shhhhh. Don’t prejudice Juan’s response. *g* (I’m trying to ask neutral Qs, but it’s hard.)

I have a chapter in the book that gives the background on Pakistani politics.

President Zardari is not now and never has been popular with the Pakistani public, but he is very popular with the Pakistan People’s Party cadres, and that is the largest party in parliament and also dominates or has good allies in the provincial governments, which also get a vote on who is president.

Personally, I think the recent struggle over the reinstatement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry was healthy. It wasn’t back room deals, it was a combination of party politics and street politics. It was among the more democratic moments in Pakistan history. I’m not enthusiastic about Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Muslim League (N), nor about Zardari. But the Pakistani people have enormous potential and are demonstrating it. Let them work it out, and let us have an end to military dictatorships there.

What about aid what do they need? What about water I read about plastic sheets to catch the dew would more water help buy peace?
What about corruption. What about a lack of skilled local mangers for any projects we do? Without that they will be dependent on us.

I think you may see some spine from this administration when dealing with the Israelis.

The Bush family is still backing that thing? Even Now?

Obama hasn’t reneged on his Iraq withdrawal plan, but he has tweaked it.

This only makes sense as snark. If we have around 130,000 troops in country at the end of the year and we leave 50,000 there for training, i.e. combat but not calling them combat troops, that will mean removing 80,000 in a 7-8 month period or at roughly twice the rate that was the ostensible reason for the 16 month time frame. And again let’s be clear. The Obama Administration and the Pentagon are talking 50,000 in what would be a combat mission just not called that. The 35,000 is for PR and the rubes.

Thanks.

I agree that the Paks have incredible potential and are demonstrating it. My opinion changed vastly by the lawyer’s strike. (Wish U.S. lawyers were as upstanding.) I only hope that the Paks have a chance to demonstrate their potential. As Petrocelli mentions, the military might not give them a chance.

My book actually does try to take account of European points of view, so it is framed in a way as NATO and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (which is the regular meeting of foreign ministers of the Muslim-majority states). Turkey is the only member of both.

Opinion polling in France shows that attitudes toward Islam and Muslims there are very different than in the US. The French don’t seem to blame Islam for the occasional rioting of unemployed Beurs (children of North African immigrants who are fairly deracinated). That response may reflect a much longer and deeper French interaction with parts of the Muslim world than has been the case in the US. But it is also simply true that most French citizens and residents of Muslim heritage don’t seem to be very religious (just as the French of Catholic heritage are not– I think observant ones are like 18%).

So maybe France has fewer of these problems just because it is a more secular society and doesn’t obsess about religion. On the other hand, the Beurs really are disproportionately economically disadvantaged and government policy is needed to change that if further problems are to be avoided.

U.S. is backing it, regardless of administration. Last I heard (think it was a guest on antiwar.com, maybe Eric Margolis), the contract has been let. Can’t remember details. I’ll try to find some links.

I think you may see some spine from this administration when dealing with the Israelis.

We will only know that there is a spine there if the Obama Administration actually reduces aid to Israel. That would mark a sea change.

As for TCU’s comment about Afghanistan and corruption, that is a good one. Corruption is prevalent and a real source of anger and the whole system looks designed to promote it.

How are the Neo Cons shaping America’s views of Muslim’s? What is their motivation? Has the government helped them do this to build the case for war? How has the Media helped?
Just who besides you is trying to show that Muslims are people too?

Zardair won because of the sentiment towards Benazir’s assassination, which many Pakistanis believe was planned by Zardari himself.

Pakistan is a very long way away from a strong civilian Gov’t … when Nawaz Sharif appears to be the one with stronger morals, you’ve got big problems !

I agree that they deserve a strong, civilian Gov’t but I think Palestinians will get their own state before Pakistan
gets this.

Wiki sez it’s up in the air.

Other google refs seem to be dated, so I can’t reconstruct my info. But it’s definitely not a dead issue.

To follow up a bit on this, and recognizing that putting together a full reading list is a bit much for this thread, could you recommend any other works that you find helpful that contribute to this conversation?

Despite the mini-speculative spike in oil prices, countries like Saudi Arabia are going to be hurt by the decline in prices. How unstable is the KSA? Will continue to clunk along or will its interior contradictions tear it apart?

I don’t quite understand. Are you saying that in Europe Muslims are treated better than in the US and that there are fewer problems for them?

This is true for many countries where there is a trend towards extremism … corruption permeates all levels of society and helplessness turns to anger and then to extremism.

This has been going on since the 50’s, as part of American Foreign Policy and no administration seems to be able to stop it.

The last admin. brought it to U.S. shores and their friends made off with the treasury.

Don’t worry I believe you I just can’t believe that big business thinks a gas pipeline is a good idea in a country with so many explosives and people who have reason to hate us.
We can’t even get repair crews to work in Iraq to build schools, clean water plants etc and we have allot more troops there.

I know that there are US military commanders who are hoping for continued US military missions in Iraq, despite the Status of Forces Agreement. I just think they are underestimating the Iraqi parliament and also Obama.

I don’t see evidence of US combat missions in most of Iraq as it is, today. By the way, typically only 10 percent of troops are for combat. If there are 50,000 US military personnel in Iraq in Sept., 2010, 45,000 of them would be jeep drivers, cooks, etc. How would 5,000 ’support’ troops matter all that much in a country of 27 million anyway? They won’t be able to do regular patrols. At most, they’d be called on by Iraqi troops who got into a heavy firefight with guerrillas and got into trouble.

Whether this kind of scenario actually develops depends on how good and united the new Iraqi army becomes over time. But if they don’t need US troops, they won’t want them, I can guarantee you that.

And, I think the Iraqis are deadly serious about the final Dec. 31 2011 deadline for withdrawal (I except the US Air Force, which they will want around for close air support for a few years.)

Anyway, why be a ‘withdrawal fundamentalist’? Iraq is regaining its sovereignty and will be calling these shots, just as the Philippines did in the 1980s and 1990s. The assumption that Barack Obama will strongarm the Iraqis into letting him stay in Iraq makes no sense to me.

Pakistan is a very long way away from a strong civilian Gov’t … when Nawaz Sharif appears to be the one with stronger morals, you’ve got big problems !

LOL. Anyone could take a higher moral tone than Mr. 10%. Pakistan seems to cycle between corrupt chaotic civilian governments and corrupt repressive military ones. The current economic crisis can’t be helping either. I think Pakistan went into default until the IMF I believe extended them a package of loans and I don’t know how onerous those were.

When was the last time big corps made plans based on reality? Like the U.S. govt, they think they make their own reality. (Well, at least the financial and oil industries think that. Because they are partners with the U.S. govt.)

One thing that I constantly here from people that support an extreme view of Israel’s occupation of Palestine is that “since Jordan has disclaimed it” there was no occupation. Recognition of Palestine as the successor to Jordanian control would perhaps knock out this peg. It’s really just sophistry, though.

We could refuse to recognize travel documents of Israeli settlers we know living in the West Bank and Jerusalem unless they were Palestinian issued. We could refuse to accept dual US-Israeli citizenship of settlers (and up- the ante if Netanyahu becomes belligerent by refusing to accept any Israeli-US dual citizenships.

Professor Cole,
I think your numbers of non-combat/support troops to combat were probably correct at one time but it seems that the US Army has outsourced a lot of the jobs such as cook, civil engineering and such that used to be performed by support troops to the Halliburton/KBR crowd.

Hugh,

This is the argument that I hear from others, as well as Juan, who have made good analysis over time. Like Patrick Cockburn. IOW, it’s not up to the U.S. anymore, it’s up to the Iraqis who really really don’t want us there.

Don’t think that’s necessarily dispositive, but it is a powerful arguement against long term U.S. military presence.

Nope thats why I’m asking aside from the Lefty blogs I don’t see anyone from government the MSM etc defending Muslims unless the are Saudis.

Who IS arguing for long-term military presence in Iraq?

Oh, I have a whole chapter in the book about gas and oil diplomacy between the US and the Muslim world.

The proposed natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India could have had benefits. Afghanistan and Pakistan would have gotten on the order of $1 bn. each annually in tolls. Russia’s current leading (some say near-monopoly) position in the gas markets would have been lessened. And India would have gotten a cleaner source of energy for its rapid economic growth.

Of course, I would only have wanted it to happen peacefully and not because of military intervention.

But my view is that the pipeline is dead. Turkmenistan signed an agreement with Russia last August to have the Russians develop their natural gas and then to pipe it to Moscow for sale in Europe.

The idea that a natural gas pipeline could be built through Afghanistan and Pakistani Baluchistan to India under current conditions is absurd. The Taliban would blow it up every day. The Baluch are not happy with Islamabad since Gen. Musharraf whacked Akbar Bugti, one of their old-time subnationalist leaders.

The proposed natural gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan is more plausible, but also faces enormous obstacles. Those would be removed if Iran came in from the cold.

The assumption that Barack Obama will strongarm the Iraqis into letting him stay in Iraq makes no sense to me.

It wouldn’t be Obama but Odierno and Petraeus, and Odierno in particular has expressed an interest in working around the SOFA. I think you are taking a very narrow view of what a combat mission is in Iraq. Troops on large bases may be able to stay out of harm’s way but anyone else who has to travel in or through the country for patrols, supplies, or training could very easily find themselves under fire. To me somebody shooting at you is combat.

What the word on Nuclear Power I heard the Saudis were getting reactor tech from us who got the contract GE ?
Any other Muslim Countries getting reactor tech from us? Why has the MSM been so quiet?

Juan,

What do you think of Kill Khalid by Paul McGeough? He was here a couple of weeks ago, and I found the book added greatly to my understanding of the Palestinians and how the U.S. has been complicit in their suppression. (Elliot Abrams arming Fatah to foment a civil war against Hamas, for example.)

And, I think the Iraqis are deadly serious about the final Dec. 31 2011

deadline for withdrawal (I except the US Air Force, which they will want around for close air support for a few years.)

This is an issue that’s near and dear to my heart; how do you think that the US is going to handle the issue of resupplying Iraq with weapons capable of offensive action? I’m thinking here particularly of fighter aircraft, but also of tanks, artillery, etc. There would seem to be some issue with the recreation of an offensively capable Iraqi military that could potentially threaten Israel or Saudi Arabia…

The U.S. military, of course, and Obama listens to the generals. As I understand their motives and the way the military bureaucracy works, once a military mucky muck gets a base or a command, he never gives it up. Would cut the career prospects right off. Especially if giving up something occurs outside of the context of outright victory, which we can’t attain. Thus the stay-forever-otherwise-disaster-will-occur scenario. It’s all about military saving face and accumulating territory.

You can’t compare the situation of Muslim in the US and Europe so broadly because of class differences. Muslims in the US are disproportionately well off and educated, and their relatively full integration into society is in part a function of social class. Muslims in Europe are, in contrast, disproportionately working class.

I am talking more about public discourse. Look at the way Giuliani, Huckabee, Tancredo and Romney spoke about Islam in the US Republican presidential primaries. I am saying that in most of Europe, only the far right (e.g. LePen) would talk like that about Islam and Muslims. In the US, Islamophobic rhetoric is mainstreamed, and you have whole media careers made on it, like that of Glenn Beck or Faux News anchors. TV5 Monde in Paris doesn’t have an equivalent that I know of.

Don’t think that’s necessarily dispositive, but it is a powerful arguement against long term U.S. military presence.

The Iraqis have never wanted us there but Maliki and others still find it useful to have us around. The truth is the SOFA that the Iraqis agreed to keeps US troops in Iraq longer than what was Obama’s supposed withdrawal plan.

Also I would note if the US is supposed to be out of Iraqi cities by June 2009 how can they clamp down on security for the December 2009 elections?

Normally, I’d agree, but generals prefer being in the latest war, that’s where you get the stars and ink.
Iraq is passe.

Diary link Saudis getting nuclear Reactor

http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/1302

The clampdown on security for the December elections in Iraq will be a one-time operation.

There will be no US troops patrolling neighborhoods in Iraqi cities by July 1 of this year. They will be there solely for SWAT-type interventions at request of Iraqi commanders and in conjunction with an Iraqi military operation (e.g. against the Islamic State of Iraq in, for instance, Diyala or Salahuddin).

Btw beur comes from beurre the French word for butter. You know darker on the outside and white on the inside. I remember discussing this with some French of North African descent or Magrébins. One said he thought it was a positive designation. The other said it was like calling an African American an Oreo.

Thank you. That’s much clearer.

So US troops will be out of Iraqi cities except when they are in them. Got you.

Robert Farley

Cole then tells the separate but related story of the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the political relevance of the Brotherhood across the Arab world. Key to Cole’s account is change; the Muslim Brotherhood does not have a static membership or political meaning across time and space. Cole makes pointed comparisons between Muslim extremists and right wing American extremists, noting that their proportions in the overall population are relatively similar, and the apocalyptic worldview that both share can lead to spectacular terrorism.

Juan could you touch on this a bit more?

Do you talk about their relationship with the CIA?

Light water reactors are innocuous and cannot be used to make a bomb. Not enough fissile material builds up on the rods (it would take a century). This is why the Israeli bombing of Osirak in the early 1980s was just for show. The French built it as a light water reactor, and very responsibly so. In fact, bombing Osirak just impelled the Iraqis to (unsuccessfully) pursue enrichment for bomb making in the late 1980s and until 1991.

There is a lot of hysteria in the press about nuclear issues. Just basic physics literacy seems absent in our politicians and journalists.

Beur is what the urban N. African youth call themselves; it is ironic.

It’s the U.S. way.

To return to Saudi, and stability, any thoughts?

Just basic physics literacy seems absent in our politicians and journalists.

Most notably NYT’s William Broad, their latter day Judith Miller.

Just basic physics literacy seems absent in our politicians…

From a bunch that includes the folks who believe the earth is only about 6000 years old? Not a surprise that they are illiterate about any area of science.

1. Ahmadinejad
2. Al Qaeda
3. Hezbollah
4. Lashkar-e-Taiba
5. etc.

The US Right is increasingly attempting to criminalize the Muslim Brotherhood. I don’t entirely understand it. The Brotherhood made a pact with President Anwar El Sadat in the 1970s that they would give up violence and he would let them operate as a civil society organization. They have stuck to the bargain. Egyptian law forbids parties to run in elections if they are solely based on religion. So the Brotherhood cannot run candidates under its own logo. But other parties will pick up a Brotherhood member to run in certain constituencies if they think he (it is he) will win, and then he votes with that party on key issues but forward Brotherhood concerns as well.

In the last elections for the lower house of parliament, which I think has 444 members, the MB won 88. So they are a substantial bloc within the Egyptian government. To be sure, the lower house is hobbled; there is an upper house, and the whole government ultimately reports to the military. But the lower house does actually pass important legislation.

When Steny Hoyer met an MB parliamentarian in Cairo a couple of years ago, all hell broke loose in Washington, and Pete Hoekstra, my neighbor, as I remember, tried to introduce some measure condemning such contacts.

Some rightwing pundits lambasted Hoyer because he said that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood had thrown off violent movements. But that is the point. The MB has no paramilitary and no violent cells. The impatient and the radical leave the organization for e.g. the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. So why does all that reflect badly on the Brotherhood.

It is a righwing populist movement, bad for women’s rights and minority rights, and I don’t personally like it. But they aren’t terrorists and it is crazy to treat them as though they were.

Juan,

There were a couple of Qs above about U.S. CIA & special ops operations in Iran. You might have missed then with everyone throwing Qs at you. Any thoughts?

What about material for a dirty bomb like radioactive waste? What if America becomes displeased with the Saudis
over another war in the Middle East (what are the odds of that happening) and cuts off their Uranium supplies forcing the Saudis to look for something else to run their reactors like say

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutonium-239

Are you predicting an Obama invasion of Iran? Or do you have another new war in mind for him?

You know Lashkar-e-Taiba is an interesting case. The Mumbai attacks showed a kind of operational thinking that is very reminiscent of al Qaeda. If I were looking for al Qaeda in Pakistan I wouldn’t just be looking in the Northwest Tribal Areas but other than some stray references nothing much was made of this.

Those guys have been in Kashmir for years now … another messy place. On the one hand, you have Kashmiris who want independence but a larger % of violence is perpetuated by terrorist groups like LeT, who want to wrest power for themselves and slaughter Kashmiris of both religions, who oppose them.

The powers that be know where these terrorist leaders are but they all have some reason to maintain them for their own political purposes.

Politics and politicians are morally bankrupt and that is common across racial and cultural divides.

There have been allegations of US security and intelligence organizations using dissident groups in Iran. A member of PJAK, the Iranian Kurdistan organization, alleged on German t.v., as I remember, that the US had deployed PJAK for operations against Iran. It is also said that the Pentagon has used the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) political cult (”Marxist Islam”) to spy on Iran and maybe to blow up things. The violence in Sunni regions of Iran such as Baluchistan or parts of Khuzistan, which probably reflects ethnic resentments against Persian, Shiite rule, is also sometimes blamed on the US.

I don’t have any way of knowing whether any of these allegations is true. What I can say is that the MEK is universally despised and reviled inside Iran, so we’re not exactly making friends by associating with it, and even the US State Department has listed it as a terrorist organization. Further, Iran’s ethnic groups may have some differences with Tehran, but they mostly are anti-imperialist and wouldn’t end up being friends of Washington even if they took American help.

Most cool!

Thanks.

Any thoughts about the Chas Freeman affair?

As we come to the end of this great Book Salon,

Juan, Thank you for stopping by the Lake and spending the afternoon discussing your new book and the Middle East.

Robert, Thank you very much for Hosting this Book Salon.

Everyone, if you haven’t bought Juan’s book yet, here is a link.

Thanks all.

No, we’re going back to Afghanistan this spring for a refresher.

Bev,

Thanks!

Juan,

Thank you!

Everyone,

Thanks for having us!

Practical question. I am a librarian. I enjoy reading Dr. Cole’s books and his blog. This discussion is interesting. So – how do we get around RahmGate and get this book to Obama? On his night table. Can we send it to someone interesting who will pass it on to Obama? We can’t just use Amazon and mail it to Pennsylvania Avenue – even a signed copy, with compliments. Who is “inside” and can bring up these arguments – so that there are other voices in the debate. (As in today – will BO read Krugman and Galbraith? Is he reading even the NYTimes, so he can read about the Israeli hearings on the actions of the army in Gaza?)

We knew that Bush couldn’t/wouldn’t read – but BO will. IF we can get throuogh the cordon sanitaire and Cerberus at the gate…

Peres contradicts Obama & urges Iranians to topple their govt. With friend like that …

Lashkar-e Tayyiba is specialized in the Kashmir liberation struggle, and they hit Mumbai to encourage the Indians to leave Muslim Kashmir. But such groups do pose a threat of morphing into international terrorism, and Lashkar has cells in the UK. I suspect them of involvement in the 7/7/05 London Underground bombings.

Kashmiris in polls say that they don’t want to be part of Pakistan, but rather want independence. They also talk about having had 500 years of foreign rule, so they include the Muslim Mughal Empire as *foreigners* (most South Asian Muslims don’t talk like that).

The old Reagan-era deployment of private paramilitaries for geopolitical gain, which survives in Pakistan, needs to be ended.

Perhaps you don’t remember the names of the all the people said to be Obama’s friends.
Accusing Obama of being closed off to left-wing ideas seems a tad small.

Thanks Juan for coming by today. You are always welcome here.

eCahn, Peres is a tool. He may have had some integrity at some point in his career but he hasn’t had any for years.

Thanks so much, everyone, for a lively and informed discussion. You’re welcome to facebook me if you want to continue the dialogue.

Hope you’ll all buy the book. It makes a wonderful present, too. :-)

See you in cyberspace.

Special thanks to you, Robert, for being such a great host. And to Bev for the kind invitation.

Thanks Juan!

Thank you Professor Cole, Robert and Bev !

I stand chagrined. Perhaps Rahm is permeable. So let’s buy Juans book and send it.
To whom?? I don’t really know. You apparently do.

send away!

New post–>>

Margot !

Off to a Barbecue … have a great weekend everyone !

Come to think of it I can’t even find the name of the company giving the Saudis Nuclear Reactor tech much less that its a light water reactor. I’m sure its true but I would like to see a link.
Also there are rumors that Arab states want the bomb because they expect Iran to have one soon. any truth to that?

If the Obama administration caves under Israel’s Netanyahu, similar to the way they did not defend Chas Freeman, America runs the risk of another attack. And for good reason, wouldn’t you say?

Do you really mean to say GOOD reason?