Ben Smith has an interesting article on how pollsters are finding that there is a pretty big gap between what DC journalists think Americans think, and what Americans actually think.
No better example of this can be found than the "winners" and "losers" that DC media are proclaiming in the wake of the passage of the stimulus bill, and what DailyKos/Research 2000 polling on the subject indicates.
DC opinion: It’s good for the Republicans!
- MSNBC’s First Read lists among its winners "the Republican Party (which demonstrated unity after its big losses in November), and No.2 House Republican Eric Cantor (who raised his profile during the debate)." Reid gets a win, Pelosi gets a loss.
- Chris Cillizza also declares Eric Cantor a victor for maintaining party discipline (although he tags him a loser too for the AFSME ad). Reid gets a "win" here too, and House Democrats are deemed losers, because "it appeared as though this was a Senate-run production."
- Fox News unsurprisingly says "Republican lawmakers may turn out to be winners. Most of them voted against the package, and in their largely unified opposition, they found an issue to galvanize the party after two consecutive dispiriting electoral defeats." Reid and Pelosi don’t exist.
- Liz Sidoti also says the Republicans win: "Adrift after back-to-back electoral losses, they found their voice against a Democratic speaker and an expanded majority. They held to the GOP’s cornerstone of fiscal conservatism as they led the effort to define the package as too costly and too quick." Likewise, Jon Boehner: "He strengthened his hold on his job, keeping his rank-and-file united against the House version." Again, Reid gets a win. She gives Pelosi and Mitch McConnell losses.
But according to Daily Kos polling, the change in public opinion from a poll taken from Feb. 2-5 to the latest one taken from Feb. 9-12 indicates that Pelosi, Reid and the Democratic Party have actually gone up in public approval — all had a net change of +2 points, while the Congressional Dems scored a +3. Conversely, Republicans went down — the Republican Party had a net change of -2, while McConnell, Boehner and Congressional Republicans all had a loss of -3.
And if you go back to the beginning of the year and track how the public is viewing the political situation in Washington DC, the changes are even more dramatic:
Pelosi and the Democratic Party are the big winners, scoring a +5. Congressional Dems score a +3, and Reid has actually lost two points.
But contrary to beltway opinion, the Republicans are getting hammered. While the Republican Party has only had a net change of -2, those directly involved in the stimulus battle are taking huge hits: McConnell and Boehner at -11, and the Congressional Republicans who are getting such applause from the beltway denizens score a -10.
As Markos notes:
The supposedly hated "San Francisco Liberal" Nancy Pelosi not only has the only net-positive favorability rating of the bunch, but she has a net favorability advantage of 40 points over her hapless and clueless Republican counterpart. The 18-point gap in the net favorability ratings in the Senate leadership is less dramatic, but still significant. Especially since Democrats are stuck with the ineffective Harry Reid as their leader.
The "Reid wins, Pelosi loses" narrative only seems to stick with people who believe what Joe Lieberman thinks matters.
And what about those cherished "independents" that Davids Brooks and Broder always claim to speak for? Congressional Republicans have only a 15% favorability rating, with a 70% disapproval rating. (You can find the crosstabs here.) I eagerly await columns from both reflecting this irrefutable consensus that by anyone’s measure falls well outside the margin of error.
Jay Rosen and Glenn Greenwald were on Bill Moyers recently discussing just how skewed the perspective of Beltway journalists is, and how it affects the way in which they cover the Obama administration:
GLENN: What the media wants to see is continuity, that he’s not threatening to their way of life and to their establishment, for the reason that we talked about before. That’s how he wins praise from them, is by showing that he isn’t going to change things fundamentally, and therefore, isn’t a threat to their system. . . .
[]
JAY ROSEN: If you’re a career Washington reporter, how do you know that your knowledge is always going to be relevant throughout your career? Well, if politics is just an inside game, then you’re always on top of it. If all of a sudden, a new dynamic enters it, you may not have the knowledge you need to be the expert, to be the authority. And I think there’s a tendency for Washington journalists to see everything converging towards the political game that they are themselves masters of.
If you go back to the 2007 Iraq War funding battle, when the Senate put on a brief show about tying appropriations to troop withdrawal, there was no end to the concern trolling about the fact that Democrats would be viewed as "obstructionist" and suffer heavy electoral defeat in 2008 if they held together and tried to put the curbs on an extremely unpopular war. That view was irrespective of political affiliation — Democratic pollster Doug Schoen completely misrepresented polling numbers in the wake of the Senate collapse to try and prove that the American public didn’t want Democrats to take on the war. Nobody seems to have foreseen the emergence of a Democratic presidential candidate who would win in no small part based on his opposition to that war.
DC lives in an economic bubble and remains largely insulated from the troubles hitting the rest of the country. No matter who is in power, no matter who is on the receiving end of taxpayer largesse, the money finds its way there. Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in VA and Howard County MD (where lobbyists and contractor beneficiaries of the defense/homeland security boon of the past 8 years live) are the top three wealthiest counties in the country, and seven more DC suburbs chart in the top 20.
The people who live in DC, who pretend to speak for the rest of the country, have no direct experience with what is happening there — and their attempts to handicap DC politics have more to do with the inside baseball games that seek to protect their own interests above all else. The fact that three and a half million Americans will have jobs as a result of the passage of this bill, or that people who are unemployed or living on food stamps will continue to be able to eat, doesn’t seem to graze their analyses.
The American public looked at DC, they saw the Democrats trying to do something, and they liked what they saw. People who are deeply worried about staying employed and taking care of their families do not seem to have the universal high regard for House Republicans who stood together to oppose helping them out that the DC establishment do.
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piss on em’
Actually, if McConnell, Boehner et al. had just STFU, perhaps they would have done better…
Are the longer trend Pelosi unfavorable numbers right? Seems she gained two unfavorable points on the chart while gaining three favorables. That would net to +1, not +5, unless the unfavorable numbers are reversed. Unless I’m reading it wrong, which is entirely possible.
The TradMed lives in an even bigger bubble as compared to Dubya. Look at Ambinder. The only time I bet he spends talking to a blue collar worker is if he talks to the janitor at The Atlantic offices. And it is a big if. Most of the TradMed(especially the DC types), don’t give a damn whether “regular, hard working Amerikuns” have a job or can eat. As long as they don’t come to DC and protest and upset the apple cart.
the beltway press needs to believe that the public is dumb because it elevates them to some imagined perch above us. i think it helps explains why d.c. is “wired for republicans” too because it helps everyone inside the beltway fish tank feel superior. it also helps explain the hostility toward the blogoshpere because blogs provide a steady flow of evidence to the contrary; the people can be very, very smart about these things.
I don’t usually watch the Sunday morning shows,
but turned on ABC this morning for exactly this reason.
Sure enough, Cokie robertsaurus and Sam donaldsaurus
were telling us what the common man wants.
In this case, what John Q. Public wants is a manly president (none of this shirt-sleeves stuff).
I guess this was decided last weekend on the Vineyard.
I have been and still am scornful of Obama’s emphasis on “bipartisanship.” I have predicted that it wouldn’t work because the GOP are such assholes. And I have long predicted that attempts to placate them would be costly to the nation. I still believe that.
But, damn, Obama efforts at bipartisanship are surely playing well in Peoria and are showing up the GOP for exactly what they are.
Congressional GOPers: 21% favorability rating. One in five people think they’re all right? Look around you. Gah!
YIKES, Another bubble revealed.
The fourth estate is out to lunch in the US and especially around the beltway. Fascists (read corporations) want and need to keep the public dumb and uninformed, confused and rallying behind empty sloganeering like “patriotism” and “support the troops”. What a bunch of hogwash.
The task(s) before the people is to bust up big media and rise up indyu media (the net and the blogs) where profit is not driving the agenda.
Bust up the mega corporations. Corporate interests are counter to the interests of the people and they have too much power and influence in government. Government has been privatized to the extent that it serves corporate interests and has turned over governement matters to private corporations such as Blackwater which is a mercenary force, does interrogations and policing even within our own country.
Seems like Obi is trying placate the corporations and financiers who have been transforming government in their own tool for profit and oppression of the people who have seen their standard of living tank for 30 years. We’re headed toward slavery of one form or another, debt to the the banks where we work all our lives to pay for the credit they dole out which is needed to survive.
YIKES
For a couple of years now, Glenn Greenwald has been pointing out (about once every month or so) the remarkable discrepancy between the claims that beltway journalists make on behalf of ordinary citizens and the actual results of the polls.
Can’t stand them. Who actually likes or respects these two creeps?
Anyone who has ever spent time on a college campus knows the best and the brightest aren’t in the J-school. Worse, their aversion to numbers is legendary. Does anyone know a J- major who ever spent more than a week in a calc class? The sad result of this enrages me every Sunday morning.
And this is why, Jane, the neocons are currently congratulating themselves on their ‘big economic stimulus bill win’! They know Americans despise them after 8 years of George Bush & Dick Cheney and are choosing once again to ignore reality!
Ignoring reality is how republicans survive.
They still can steal elections since that was privatized and they still do caging which disenfranchizes millions of voters.
You can’t have america as they want it and democracy.
Term limits now – better to get rid of the devils you have now and deal with the new ones that might arrive tomorrow.
get money out of politics
And if you’ve all noticed around the Internet, the neocons are spreading false accusations against President Obama, because they know they have to make up shit to get a wave of hatred against our new president! Ahhhhh, but it’s not working. In fact, the opposite is happening. Any anger felt against the No Party on election day November 2008 has now amplified and I. AM. LOVING. IT.
I couldn’t be happier really. Fun watching the neocons pulling the noose around their necks tighter each and everyday they open their mouths!
The goopers are heading towards irrelevancy ,they are doomed to wander the wilderness for the next several decades
Kookie Cokie sees herself as the granddame of the Village. She’s nothing more than a wealthy elitist who cares little for the common “man.” Until these self-appointed Brahmins are knocked off their lofty perches they will continue to have undue influence that does a disservice to the needs of the American public. Any well versed person knows they are a train wreck but as of yet there is no coordinated and comprehensive strategy to expose them to the vast majority of the nation for the incompetents that they are.
you’re gonna love this jane,frank rich concurs, notice my bold
Eternity sounds better than decades.
One of the major differences between journalists today and those of 40-50 years ago…is that years ago, there was no such thing as J-school. People who got into the newspaper business many times worked their way up from copy kids, type setters, copy editors, etc. and got in because they could write. So, they came from a blue collar background – not college kids. I recall Hunter Thompson once wrote a really scathing piece on modern journalists.
Eternity sounds better than decades.
Still not long enough !
The Beltway still hasn’t grasped what just happened. By having her Chairman and their Committee staffs essentially write the stimulus bill as a series of budgetary reform bills, and then getting the WH to adopt that process as their own, Nancy Pelosi has pulled off a stunning reversal of US spending priorities. If you sort out what’s in the “stimulus bill,” you’ll find, in essence:
1. An Education Reform and School Funding Act, with over $100 billion
2. An Energy Alternative and Efficiency Investment Act, with $21 billion
3. An Unemployment Compensation Reform Act, increasing benefits, making more people eligible, with $78 billion.
4. A Medicaid Reform and Augmentation Act with $87 billion
5. A National Infrastructure Investment Act with $120 billion scattered in various Acts.
6. A Science and Technology R&D Act, with about $29 billion
7. A Middle-Class Tax Relief Act, $100+ billion, not counting AMT fix.
The single “simulus bill” is in fact many bills, which collectively create a massive restructuring of US budget priorities (except for defense). That is a huge reversal of the last 30 years. This is why the Republicans are trying to demonize Nancy Pelosi.
Boehner threw the bill on the floor Friday night not because he didn’t know what was in it but because he did. The Republicans just lost big time, across the board. Well done, Pelosi.
in addition the local papers supported themselves, they didn’t have corporte pressure telling them which angle benefit or harmed their advertisers
journalist or propagandist sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference !
This from Josh and Frank Rich’s column today make perfect companion reading to your point, Jane.
A pox on the likes of CW Cokie and Snuffy’s cadaver panel.
Howie Kurtz had a conversation on Reliable Sources this a.m. with Gwen Ifill and Margaret Carlson and a woman from Washington Times whose name I didn’t catch. Excellent deconstructing/education on the inner workings of Beltway press corps. Civil discourse. No bullshit spin a la McCain and Nicole Wallace–sure we got you in this gigantic pile o’crapola but it’s all Obama’s fault ’cause he didn’t fall over and adopt more of the same–in other segments of King’s Sunday morning.
Props to Kurtz. More, please.
Jane, I suspect your analysis will be criticized because the poll was done by KOS, regardless of its merit. Is anyone besides Kos doing these kinds of polls?
She’s busying herself railing against Employee Free Choice:
http://www.sj-r.com/opinions_c…..bad-policy
Obama is warned that “he doesn’t need the image of labor bosses gathered round as he signs a bill that he told the Washington Post the business community considers “the devil incarnate.”
Good heavens, we can’t have that.
I don’t know about decades, (we can always hope) but the course they’re on don’t look good for 2010.
After getting their collective asses handed to them in 2006 & 2008, they remind me of my college pledge days —
“Thank you sir! May I have another?”
One approach to take the Brahmins head on to frame them as rich elitists that have more in common with conservatives and the status quo. Make them targets in the ongoing class warfare battle. For example, today on MTP had David Axelrod
asked Gregory what his salary was at NBC and how much he made at speaking engagments people would begin to see that Gregory had more in common with the banksters than with the common “man”. Axelrod then might have pointed out given Gregory’s inflated salary compared to a vast majority of the public it’s not surprising that Gregory leaned toward Republicans and the status quo. Of course Gregory would protest that no such biased existed at which point Axelrod could have pulled out his blowup of Gregory dancing the night away with the Turdblossum. Know that would be a gotcha moment.
Research 2000 is a really well-respected polling outfit. If people want to dismiss their findings, they better provide a detailed analysis of their methodology, which is easy to see because Kos provides the crosstabs. Anything else is just people dismissing what they don’t want to hear.
you know as far as that graph linked up top, I wish rush’s numbers were listed in there, last I looked his were as low as bush
Yep. Research 2000 is a credible poll. The Republicans have been pretty selective about which polls they site. From Frank Rich’s column:
Basically most of the bobbleheads are owned by the corporations by paying them big bucks and placing their perspective and world view from the same deck as they are on. The rest of us are crammed in the cabins below the waterline. If you hang out up there in the staterooms you don’t even see what goes down in the “hold”. This is exactly how the system works. Greed and self interest is rewarded and one who gets the gold is made to feel as if they are valued and have achieved “something of value” to the society and so on.
Money and greed ruin democracy.
repeated and highlighted for emphasis
you can’t fool all of the people all of the time
unless they are Republicans
That “good for Republicans” thing made me crazy during the 2008 campaign. If there was a terrorist attack, it would be good for Republicans because they’re perceived as harder on terrorism and a scared public would rally to them. But if there was no terrorist attack, it would be good for Republicans becuase they’ve kept us save… Bullshit, all of it.
I’m ashamed to be from the state Eric Cantor represents, though I’m happy to say I’m not in his district.
This seems to be the start of a replay of what happened to the GOP during the Clinton impeachment.
Bingo!
We have a winner; spot on.
Oh what a perfectly delightful set of charts!
Thanks Jane and Kos.
Pardon my lil’ dance here. Gotta love the numbers. The dance not so much – looks like Elaine Bennis of Seinfeld fame & glory.
Wesley Snipes lesson — it’s okay to lie and omit on your tax returns, but you get the go to jail card if you don’t file.
Would love to see a poll of what people think of DC journalists …
Reminder of version from the old “Maverick” series:
“You can fool some of the people all of the time,
and all of the people some of the time,
and those are pretty good odds.”
h/t Bred Maverick, Alias James Garner
Stay tuned and alert, gang….
Pelosi and Reid should have learned something from the Obama campaign that they did not learn. Obama created a quick response mechanism in his campaign to debunk the nonsense. Throughout the stimulus “debate” there was an endless stream of crap that went totally unchallenged. The dems need to create a fact check to highlight the Rethug silliness and show them for the irrelevant idiots they are.
Dismissing what they don’t want to hear is the pukes’ SOP. Any poll that has Kos’ name on it will make the gassbags’ heads explode.
Thanks for the analysis. The results (read by the sane) say a lot about the willful ignorance of the chatterers.
If I missed this downstream, please forgive. Does anyone have a link to SNL’s skit about Boehner and the Pugs from last night’s show?
That’s really a great idea.
yes we did turn off the gasbags for a movie channel, why do you ask?
Anybody seen a chart of the actual raw numbers of people who will admit to being a Republican these days? Now there’s a census I’d be interested in.
Oh, and, Judd Gregg = mean girl ditchin’ her date right before the prom.
A comparison of Dem polls during the Clinton impeachment and now might be telling if this trend continues. The problem is the GOP started at such a low point since John McCain lost.
Jane has a great point though the GOP even at such low numbers is still losing support.
I wonder what would happen if the election were held today?
How many more House and Senate GOPers would lose their seats if the election were held today?
I wish the Dems would use this as a talking point.
Morning Joe would blow a fuse.
and that last bit is the great weakness of the elitistMSM argument and assumptions, don’t you see.
This is why Obama is signing the stimulus bill in Denver, instead of Washington. The near-sighted D.C. press will at least have to wake up to the fact that talking to each other is no substitute for trying to understand what the rest of America thinks. Remember, it is this same D.C. press whose instant analyses had McCain winning all the TV debates. Covering the Bus presidency for 8 years must have rotted their brains, like daily quarts of Mountain Dew on teeth.
barbara, try this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…..67036.html
Yes. That is the reason for all the filibustering, abrupt rephrasing of questions by the questioned, and avoidance tactics in general. This has worked in the past. Hopefully, it won’t be so easy in the future. Obama seems adroit in picking up on it and rephrasing back to original subject matter and substance. I suspect his staff will, similarly, hone such skills.
I envision stammering repugnicans from sea to shining sea, but then I’m a compassionate heathen optimist. ymmv
Obama is still a corporation shill as far as I can tell.
Why hasn’t the department of Homeland Security been busted up? It’s a conduited for the people’s money to corporations who specialize in surveillance and oppresion.
Why are we not withdrawing or canceling the foolish and inoperative and wasteful missle defense system and demanding the wasted funds be repaid to the people?
Why are we not closing all those bases around the world?
Why do we continue with the largest embassy in the world in Iraq? What possible interest do the American people have in Iraq which requires such a presence?
Why is he not calling for a truth and reconciliation hearing on the Bush years?
Why is he not cancelling all the power grab exec orders of W?
Why is he not closing all the detention facilities the W built?
Why is he not releasing money to Katrina victims to rebuiild?
Why does he have someone like Geitner who knew he was defrauding the people with not paying his taxes as head of the US Treasury? How does Geithner have the balls not to slink away into obscurity?
How does he appoint someone like Daschle who was on the take from lobbyists?
How does he appoint someone who was fired from Harvard for his conduct in that position?
How does he propose someone like Gregg who is over there with Attila the Hun as far economics is concerned?
What republican ideas does he support which leads him to call for “bipartisanship” ?
Why does he offer tax breaks to the wealthy who have little need for them and not jobs to millions who do?
Why does he act like he is afraid of the MIC and the corporations and the wall street guys?
Why doesn’t he pull the curtain back on what the banks are hiding and show that it is all smoke and mirrors? What is he afraid of?
Why does he allow white collar criminals to remain in “house arrest” in their penthouses while millions are rotting in jail cells for victimless crimes?
Why does he allow Blackwater and the like to maintain their corporate charters and do buisness with the US government when it is apparent that they are engaged and have been engaged in mruder and other unlawful actions?
Why does he continue to pour millions of dollars into weapons programs to Israel, Egypt, Columbia and other countries who use these weapons on their own people and to wage war on innocent civilians?
Hey Obi… what’s the deal?
Glenn’s upstairs!!
I think that bringing the fed gov business around the nation in town meetings, bill signings etc is a smart move and a way to keep the people involved and disenfranchise the beltway bobbleheads. Smart move.
Is it possible Gregg was threatened late in the game by pugs over some real or imaginable, potentially career-ending misdeed? I’m not that familiar with all the details and sequence of actions. But it seemed indeed weird how it all went blooey seemingly at the last moment.
And on the 7th day he rested and said, it is good.
gooddawgman! Have too much valentine candy or sumpin’
here. have an anti-burp antacid and go have a nice lie-down.
what’s this, the coda?
go take a course in music theory. it might help jump-start the logic function.
or, alternatively, fumigate the whole place and start over…
yeah ma. i’m COMIN’ I told ya. Jammies are under the dresser. No, but I’ll rinse the dishes after I play a zillion more games here. honest. *crosses fingers behind back*
Thanks. We could have done better. *g*
Frankly I rather like seeing the Villagers shooting off their mouths with their brains still unengaged. Since the only people who take them seriously are the Republicans, it means those creeps are also out of touch with the rest of the world. As long as they don’t know what is happening in the real world, they will continue shooting themselves in the foot.
All in all, this bodes well for liberal media, including blogs like this. That pumping up the Republican BS is what drove me away from even looking at news and info from most of the MSM. They’re going to drive away their viewers just like the Republicans are driving away average Americans. I’d guess we’ll see much more mis-information which I have to assume is put out there to sabotage this administration. Hopefully there’s no market for it.
Okay SanderO, tell us who should be in the White House then that you would approve of! Your comments & questions are no different than what the right wing has been spreading about Obama for months now, so please speak for all of them and tell us WHO would be the perfect president during our time of crisis!
And remember, Dennis Kucinich told his supporters to support Obama when he dropped out.
According to SanderO, President Obama is a failure because he did not fix everything George Bush broke over 8 years….after the first 24 hours of taking office!
The MSM is holding on for dear life. Of course, they still control the cards, but their grip is weakening. More and more, we hear major lib websites sourced on cable news and just last week, Sam Stein with Huffpost actually got a Press Conf question from Obama. Web based journalism can no longer be ignored and is creeping into the MSM. Efforts to marginalize web journalists have incurred blowback on some of the biggest stories of the last few years. Dollars are shrinking in the MSM as opposed to growth on internet sites. While major newspapers are laying off workers and filing for bankruptcy Huffpost reports a 25 mil infusion of investor cash. The future is at the doorstep and knocking loudly. The old set-in-their-ways- and-mindset beltway gang is suffering from journalistic dementia. Web-based journalism fueled by smart young flexible minds are pushing the old couts out of the way. The best part of all of this is that these young fact driven journalists are not beholden to big bucks advertising and influence from big pharma, oil companies and investment houses. Sure, they need revenue, but so far they have not sold out like the tradmed.
Yea-ah! Although it smacks of push polling, such a poll needs to be prefaced with the fact of the gap between the people in ‘Peoria’ and their opinions of the Dems vs. the spew coming from “Republicans are winning” spew coming from the Trad Media.
Jane,
Thanks for this. I was at a public event on Friday and a discussion broke out regarding the stimulus package.
We all agreed that Obama had it right to an extent and that progressives and infrastructure republicans were on the right track in terms of more spending but that Republicans overall are totally lost and dim lights economically. We all agreed to short term nationalization of the banks and regulatory liabilities like the Swedish model.
Our opinions on the republicans, on Obama, on the Dems would track spot on with this polling. This was a mixed group of Dems, Indep and Repugs and possibly heavy on the Repugs.
So, I am not surprised…BTW the conversation happened at an elementary school.