University of Texas professor Ami Pedahzur has a new book coming out next month on the Israeli secret services and has some provocative things to say about Israel’s war in Gaza.

The question that was puzzling me is that Israel has this very great reputation in countering terrorism, and I was asking myself how come we are so great and yet we are still suffering from more and more terrorism? The level and intensity of terrorism is only increasing.

We have to keep in mind that many of the policy makers in Israel are themselves ex-military or security services personnel, so they do believe in it. They believe in retaliation, they believe that it deters terrorists from perpetrating more attacks. I think that in a way they are caught in a cycle where they don’t really reassess the outcomes of those assassinations. I think in the overwhelming cases what we see is that they don’t really succeed in deterring, and actually it leads to further escalation in the conflict.

I’m not talking now whether it’s right or wrong, I’m just trying to argue that so far, since 2002, the rockets and mortars that were launched from Gaza were not a major threat to Israel. They were an inconvenience — we’re talking about maybe 10 fatalities, which is horrible when we’re talking about individuals, but when you take a look at the bigger picture, it’s not.

Terrorism is first and foremost a psychological tactic. What they try to do is create fear, and this fear is a very bad adviser for policy makers. If a terrorized public is pushing the policy makers to respond with force, eventually this is exactly what the terrorists are interested in.

I think that from a broader perspective this operation could be quite devastating for Israel.

The whole article is worth reading.