University of Texas professor Ami Pedahzur has a new book coming out next month on the Israeli secret services and has some provocative things to say about Israel’s war in Gaza.
The question that was puzzling me is that Israel has this very great reputation in countering terrorism, and I was asking myself how come we are so great and yet we are still suffering from more and more terrorism? The level and intensity of terrorism is only increasing.
…
We have to keep in mind that many of the policy makers in Israel are themselves ex-military or security services personnel, so they do believe in it. They believe in retaliation, they believe that it deters terrorists from perpetrating more attacks. I think that in a way they are caught in a cycle where they don’t really reassess the outcomes of those assassinations. I think in the overwhelming cases what we see is that they don’t really succeed in deterring, and actually it leads to further escalation in the conflict.
…
I’m not talking now whether it’s right or wrong, I’m just trying to argue that so far, since 2002, the rockets and mortars that were launched from Gaza were not a major threat to Israel. They were an inconvenience — we’re talking about maybe 10 fatalities, which is horrible when we’re talking about individuals, but when you take a look at the bigger picture, it’s not.
…
Terrorism is first and foremost a psychological tactic. What they try to do is create fear, and this fear is a very bad adviser for policy makers. If a terrorized public is pushing the policy makers to respond with force, eventually this is exactly what the terrorists are interested in.
I think that from a broader perspective this operation could be quite devastating for Israel.
The whole article is worth reading.



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good post, BT
I don’t know how to react to the recognition of the obvious sold as insight. 40 years of an increasingly brutal occupation has not led to peace? Who could have predicted?
Not having read the article yet I have to wonder does the author mention the settlement of half a million Israelis on the West Bank in his evaluation of what went wrong.
Digg
Gee who could have guessed. /s
45 hrs & 31 min
pray for peace.
“I don’t know how to react to the recognition of the obvious sold as insight. 40 years of an increasingly brutal occupation has not led to peace?”
Of course there is no peace. The Palestinians won’t go for peace so long as Israel has Jews in it.
Adding to our list of audacious hopes, may the Israeli people hear this very important ‘perspective’ and respond as a people whose own history has taught them that peace and life are more valuable that ‘victory’ at the price of their own humanity?
Then, perhaps the people of Israel will share such, new-found, wisdom with the people of America, who, likewise may well find that their foreign ‘adventures’ cost them far more than they had ever imagined or realized …
part of me just wants to say “Do Ya Think?!??”
but then a bit of reason sets in and i’m just glad one more person sees what, imo, ought to be so obvious.
This is mostly idle speculation, but I suspect that violence CAN work against “terrorism”, but only if it is predictable, massively disproportionate, and massively bloody.
If, for example, you are a Roman General occupying some piss ant town in the hinterlands, and one of your patrols gets ambushed and killed- you might go out and nurder the first thousand people you come up against- EVERY TIME IT HAPPENS. That might work- but I don’t think that Israel is up to it- it looks like- well- TERRORISM!
The (human) world changes … one mind at a time.
One audaciously hopes that there shall be ‘time’ enough …
What is Israel supposed to do? Sit down for tea with the Islamo-Nazis? Calmly march into the sea?
What a wonderfully fact free summary. It is all the Palestinians’ fault. They have cunningly forced Israel into 40 years of occupation. They have duped the Israelis into settling a half million settlers on Arab lands. Gullible Israelis have carved up the West Bank into a bunch of micro-bantustans without realizing that this was the Palestinians’ plan all along. And the Israelis just keep falling for this stuff. Just in the last couple of weeks Palestinians once again tricked them into leveling large parts of Gaza and killing 1100 Palestinians and wounding 5000 more.
You seem pretty immune to reality but you might try looking at the Middle East through something other than your prejudices, especially such tired, thread worn ones.
Well I guess it’s up to Israel to decide what to do. In their place, I’d press hard for real peace discussions including giving up the settlements and the West Bank in return for a peace that is enforced by- say- UN Troops.
i’ve got to run, but this bit reminds me of something you’ve been writing about – iirc about how we need a foreign policy and intelligence services that are not just about military pov, but also history, cultural etc.
OH boo hoo hoo, the poor Palestinians. The big bad Jews FORCED them to elect a terrorist group for their government, is that it? It’s all the fault of the Israelis (and Bush too I guess) that they imported rockets which led to the blockade.
Why feed it?
Israel will give up the West Bank and Gaza when the Palestinian give up terror.
Israel can’t trust the U.N. We’re talking about the same U.N. that declared Zionism a form of racism and had Libya and Sudan chair the human rights commission!
So it’s just a matter of “who goes first?”
Israel has been importing millions of tons of arms from the US for decades all of which are used to kill arab neighbors- but let Gaza import a few rockets and they are the very devil…
Kinda funny ain’t it?
I guess being surrounded by enemies sworn to their destruction means they shouldn’t import weapons but calmly talk to Hamas and Hizbollah, right?
If Gaza had the arms that Israel does, and Israel were armed as Gaza is, guess who would be the terrorists?
Well, not entirely. Israel did “go first” by removing their settlers and troops from Gaza. They got a terrorist government in there and rocket attacks in return.
Yes, I suppose there is no point in feeding the trolls, especially those that haven’t had a coherent, fact-based thought in years.
Never attempt to teach a pig to sing, it wastes your time and annoys the pig.
I told you what my advice to them would be—
If Gaza had the arms Israel does Hamas would have exterminated every Jew in Palestine by now. Kind of makes Israel look incredibly restrained, doesn’t it?
Can someone find the YouTube rendition of “Don’t pet the dog, it mistakes it for love”.
I’m sorry to burst into this thread but, I’m watching the HBO concert – and did not see the Invocation by Bishop Gene Robinson.. .Did I tune in too late?
Ah- argument from idle speculation- a well known art form.
a few years ago i visited the west bank and stayed in palestinian villages. should also say i have never been treated with more generosity or warmer welcome in my life. after about a week at the first village , i was talking about a variety of things with one of the young men of the family we were harvesting olives with… just as one might typically do, and he asked me how i had come to decide to visit. i told him about a guest sermon i heard at church, and he looked at me quite shocked. finally he asked me something like, i thought you were jewish, aren’t you? my answer was no. turns out every one of my hosts had thought i was jewish (apparently i look jewish?)
but here’s the thing – absolutely nothing changed in the way any of my palestinian hosts treated me. it did not matter if i was jewish or not. what mattered is that i was not there to dispossess them of their land.
true story.
Not speculation, rwcole. Hamas is sworn to the destruction of Israel in their charter. Their leaders take oaths that say they will do just that. Meanwhile, the Israel leadership is not sworn to the destruction of the Palestinian Arabs.
Just out of idle curiosity, how often, if ever, has feeding the idiocy EVER resulted in a changed perspective, let along a changed mind?
Not that I think that people cannot grow and understand; simply that they either have to wish do so, or else their sanquinity must be shaken so completely that they are literally forced by circumstance and the need to remain functioning, to change because they must.
I see no evidence of the likelihood of the first ‘necessity’, and the second has not yet sunk in, and, perhaps, might not, ever.
But I applaud yoour efforts, even if I regard them as wasted.
a very wise person once, not too long ago, told me, “one mind at a time.”
are you referring to hamas or irgun?
that would be me – the changed mind i mean.
I think Pedahzur might be confusing a more general militarization of Israeli policy with the many military people who have been leaders in Israeli politics. But Olmert, Peres, and Livni haven’t had military careers the way a Barak or Sharon had. But if anything this has made them more willing to seek military solutions to prove that they can be “tough” on security. OTOH Rabin who was ex-military was relatively speaking more forthcoming than they were. Of course, he was assassinated by a Jewish extremist for his efforts.
Irgun hasn’t existed since the 40s, no matter how much you want to prove moral equivalence between a western democratic ally like Israel and the Islamofascist anti-western terrorist thugs in Hamas and Hizbollah.
Could you define “terrorism” please? Is it “acts of violence dedicated to bringing political change?”
If so, then the Israeli invasion is certainly a terrorist act- big time.
I’d say when you’re political party is not only listed as a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department, but also by your Socialist friends over in the European Union there’s a pretty good chance you’re a terrorist.
thanks.
Notice how nothing being presented by XXXXXXXX bears any semblance to what is being discussed. What is being presented by XXXXXXXX is nothing but an ill-formed opinion taken from half-truths and miss-directions fed an ignorant public incapacitated with regard to rational discourse.
Are you talking about the people who voted for Obama, T-Bear? Because that’s what it sounds like.
But the ‘conditions’ for planting seeds must be appropriate,
Sowing seeds is not simply tossing them to the wind, willy nilly, but requires the proper season for each.
When we are visited by those whose intent, clearly, is not to share or learn , together, but rather to insist that they, and only they and those who agree with them, can see clearly, there is not that fallowness of equal receptiveness.
But, as I say, minds do change, but only when conditions are such that they feel either comfortable in doing so or when the stark reality of being and being able, by necessity, to take the next breath is staring them in the eyes.
At this time to many remain comfortable in their deliberate and self-serving, self-chosen ignorance.
One must put at least a modicum of effort into honing rational, humane thought, the ‘other’ perspective, is easily obtained, in comparison, because it requires no self-examination, merely the simple embrace of ‘belief’ …
I disagree with this from the article:
There is no evidence that fatalities among Palestinians, animosity around the world, or military casualties in Israel are anywhere near negative enough to make Israel’s military strategy anything other than a brilliant success. the 2006 Lebanon invasion was a fiasco because Israel got beat, and beat badly. Not so Gaza. So again, I disagree with the author, the military strategy is not a disaster for Israel. It is, of course, for the Palestinians.
Don’t waste your time with this troll, the mind is closed.
A terrorist according to the defining authorities.
.
faux news
AIPAC f**king bullshit
44 hrs & 49 min
Stirling upstairs on SeaBees being sent to Afghanistan.
our visitors are not only those who care to comment, we are also communicating with those who are lurking (i understand it’s typically more than 100 to 1?). maybe some of lurker has been taught to think as our commenting guest writes – but is more willing to reconsider? if so, how we respond may have an effect that can not be measured by the responses of one commenter.
usually i’m all for not feeding trolls, but this is a big issue with lots of ill-conceived but emotionally important views and lives are at stake. so, for this issue, i think it’s worth trying to engage.
but i’ve been wrong before….
The word “terrorist” is used like a club- to depict moral depravity without need for argument…
I don’t see how one can define “terrorism” in a way that excludes what Israel is doing
i do think it’s a disaster for israelis. although perhaps not in the same way as the author.
shoot. now i’m really late.
100:1! As a frequent commenter, does it make you feel important that so many people are reading your words?
I should also point out that a lot of what Pedahzur is talking about is what I call the colonialist’s paradox. The more a colonial power tries to establish its control over a politically aware population, the more violent its efforts will become, and the more it will push those living under colonial rule to extremism.
The upshot of the colonialist’s paradox is that a colonial power can’t maintain its hold over those it has colonized. It has to either cut them loose (the two state solution) or it has to integrate with them (the one state solution). Israel’s settlements and its carving up of the West Bank as well as its siege of Gaza (through blockades and assaults) have effectively destroyed the viability of Palestine as a separate state so that leaves a one state solution. Whether that state will be a democracy for all its citizens, an apartheid state, or an ethnically cleansed one remains to be be seen. I think Israelis are currently erecting an apartheid state but this is likely to be as untenable in the long run as the ethnically cleansed one.
The Zionist/IDF success in the Gaza is the success of the berserker. The reported IDF plans are to carry out berserker actions to cow the Palestinian population into submission. The Israeli/Zionist government fully intends to subjugate the Palestinian population into political stupor where they can no longer mount a defense of the population. The Israeli Government and IDF are now completely berserker entities, and like the terrorists that they have become deserve no place at any civilized gathering. Boycott ALL Israeli products until there is nothing left standing of their berserker edifice.
“But if anything this has made them more willing to seek military solutions to prove that they can be “tough” on security.”
GWB, who artfully avoided going to Viet Nam (Cheney too), and who had a hangup about the fact that his daddy had already “won” a war but was criticized for not going far enough.
I doubt if this incursion will eliminate the attacks- although it might slow them down for a while- but then that was probably not the purpose- the purpose was probably to win an upcoming election and whether it succeeded in that end remains to be seen.
Well, said visitor is on the next thread.
Perhaps, this time, I have misinterpreted their intent?
I am certain, selise, that most every soul is reachable, on SOME level, but I confess to suffering fools and the deliberately narrow (and too often ‘nasty’) minded rather poorly … so I shall try to mend my ways sufficient to appreciating what, clearly, are your reasonable and compassionate concerns, I will be better as soon as I am able …
;~D
I try to boycott Israeli products but I have a dilemma. There is a particular pair of Israeli-made sandals that I love. I realized they were Israeli after I bought the first pair. When they wore out, I replaced them with an identical new pair, but felt bad about it. Given Lebanon & Gaza, though (my current pair was bought before 2006), when they wear out again, I’ll just have to find a substitute.
Yep.
I’d boycott Palestinian products, but they don’t make anything.
I would not begrudge sandals, chances are they are untouched by Zionist hands, as it were.
If the situation were not so critical to preserving lives, I would fully agree. It is when ignorance, propaganda, self-righteous beliefs, and absence of fact coincide to give support to Zionist terrorism in the slaughter of innocent people who have little or no defense against such attack, not even the ability to run away from the slaughter, imprisoned by a iron wall of tanks surrounding a four by twenty mile ghetto. No water, no power, no heat in the dead of a desert winter, no sewage pumping or treatment, hospitals firebombed, scant food supplies firebombed, irreplaceable medical supplies firebombed, schools firebombed, UN refuges firebombed.
No Selise, on this I shall differ, these people do not deserve the respect of civil discourse, save that for those who show the ability to be civil. These in-humanitarians do not deserve that respect when they use their words to support and advance the goals of those making the horror.
maybe i’m wrong, but sometimes i feel compelled to try.
and i like to imagine that sisyphus was happy.
No.
The Iraelis need to get off of the land that belongs to Palestine. They stole the land..give it back..stop the ongoing starvation blockaid of two years..that would go a long way to stopping terrorism. Take away the cause..so simple..if peace was what Israel wanted..it is not..Israel wants all of the land..
No..they need to stop trying to push Palestinians into the sea..the sea that contains the vast oil reserves that belong to the Palestinians..that Israel wants control of..
They left Gaza, they got rocket attacks and a Hamas government in return.
Well I wish you’d been with us as todays’experiment’ has ‘unfolded’, selise, to help determine the efficacy of the ‘attempt’ with this specific ‘case’.
;~D
You call it a terrorist group..many do not..learn, read, see what other governments say. The US supplies the weapons..Israel kills with the weapons…yes, I guess it is the US and Israel who are to blame. Oh, and don’t forget that the US demanded that an election be held. The people did not want the US/Israel puppet government that they had. Who created Hamas? Ask Israel.
Zionists are not liked by many Jews for very valid reasons.
Oh dear..not that misquote from Iran, again?
No they wouldn’t. There are many Jews, Arab, and Christians in Israel who are working for peace. What are you working for? Or, should I say who?
lol, was out taking a walk with a friend. am in a much better frame of mind now, but sorry i missed the rest of the conversation.
Walking is good.
How much snow are you walking through?
We only got about five inches, but the plow recycled it onto my sidewalk several times.
Sort of like the gas station attendant said to the lady in the Cadillac,
“Lady, could you turn the car off? I thinks its gaining on me …”
The party name, no..the people who thrive on the violent actions towards Palestine do still exist..family members of the original still exist..Emanuel in the White House comes to mind..They are spread out far and wide.
Democracy…you mean like the one that just denied the Arabs the right to participate in the election on Feb 10? The democracy that practises Apartheid?
Called a terrorist group by the US..That is real funny. Not the best source of reality.
No..he is talking hasbara, or, a case of those who will not see.
LOL. we had 6-8 inches last night and today. really powdery and beautiful. no wind so all the branches (that weren’t broken in the ice storm last month) have snow on them and it’s just a picture perfect winter day. even got above 20F. the only trouble was the 1-2 inches of ice underneath the snow on the ground. walked most of the time in the middle of the road where there is only an inch or two of snow, but the ice is the same.
my friend i walked “with” is in florida, so only one of us had to deal with snow. *g*
They left Gaza..the Gaza where they put illegal settlements of Jews..that one?
Darn..I fed a troll. My excuse is that the same said troll tried to eat me for its lunch before I came here..’G’..
Aw, them latitudinally impoverished souls don’t know what they’re missing.
We ‘real’ and ‘gin-you-whine’ Americans do, though, ya bethca!
Sounds perfect, like that in Pittsburgh, but, mostly minus the ice.
That’s good ‘cuz of the hills, ya know.
I never lived anyplace where, if you put a ball on the ground, it immediately runs away from home. Raises hell on my ’suspension system’ too, getting in and out of automobiles on a driveway that would lauch a car right through the garage if car were to get loose …
;~D
I though ya were magnificent, bb, throughout today’s ‘experiment’.
DW
Why you people argue with people who post received wisdom from talk radio is beyond me.
Traditional Conservative: none of your replies answers the problem that the Israeli response simply hasn’t worked. Let us assume for the sake of argument that the Palestinians are evil, crazy anti-Semitites (anti-Jews) and wouldn’t stop as long as a single Jew is left in Israel. In that case a sane Israeli policy would not continue to treat the Palestinian insanity in a way that has not worked.
And yes, I agree that the Israeli policy in Gaza is inhumane. But T-Bear, one should also remember that many contemporary Jews, like me, still bear the scars of the Holocaust – even those of us who didn’t directly experience it. And like people who have been abused, we are sometimes guilty of passing on the abuse to other innocents, who can then in their turn pass on the disease. I cry for my people, and I cry as well for the Palestinians. TB – don’t give up on those who have been traumatized.
“… inhumane. But …’
If there is a people who must understand this, then it is ‘yours’.
That understanding, however, is not license …
Unlike Hitler’s Germany, Israel could step back and rescue itself AND the Palestinian people from this madness. Magnaminity from the position of strentgh is not weakness, it is wisdom.
The United States must also step back and stop funding the worst manifestions of the fear, too easily and readily envoked in that sad part of this small planet, elef.
I hope you shall comment here often, in future, elef, as I am convinced that understanding, tolerance, courage are our ‘best’ means of expressing our humanity and ensuring that the world will be habitable and decent for ALL now here and for those who come after us.
DW
Well, I see that my ability to spell has utterly deserted me, but I hope, elef, that you followed my ‘drift’.
DW
It’s not just the word terrorist, but “insurgent”, “militant” and “gunman” that are attempting to destabilize the good works of the “troops”, soldiers”, “reservists” and in Iraq the “members of the coalition forces”. The media does not recognize the efforts of the native people who are resisting an occupying force.
Thanks! Here are two videos that I just came across this evening. Wish I had known about them earlier. I could have fed them to the troll for dessert.
****
Israel admits: No Hamas rockets were fired during ceasefire
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfFMZ7Y-s_c
CNN confirms Israel broke ceasefire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KntmpoRXFX4
Hugh et al,
I am a Zionist. I believe in the central premiss of Zionism: that Jews need their own state if they are to live without the immediate and persistent threat of extermination. Before you say ‘the world would never allow that to happen again’, remember Rawanda. From there, the paradoxes begin; who is a Jew? how will Israel remain a democratic state? Worst, the establishment of said state has not eliminated the existential threat. On the other hand, at least, the establishment of Israel has placed the Jews in command of their own fate. I am not proud of the Gaza exercise but, I know that this is much more than muscle flexing. Israel and Hamas are finishing one act in a larger production involving Iran and Hezboallah on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf States on the other (see Robert Baer’s new novell). I ask that we see Palestinian insistence on rights of return to pre ‘67 Israel for what it really is; an attempt to overwhelm the Jewish majority in Israel proper. And, what about Hama? I know that it’s easy to become shocked by what we see happening in Gaza but, we mustn’t take it out of context. Asad killed over 20,000 men, women, and children in Hama and seldom do we hear a peep. Moreover, I know that moral indignation will never solve this problem. Both sides are too well practiced in that game. Trying to resolve the situation by convicting either side will never get us anywhere. Let’s deal with the underlying problems. The only way to end this is to talk to the current Palestinian sponsor (Iran), establish an international force to ensure security for both states, and resolve outstanding claims of the dispossessed (Palestinians and Jews forced to leave Arab countries in ‘48) without upsetting the national integrity of either state. As a cleansing act, I would like to see the old city placed under the authority of a neutral spiritual authority. Any body have a problem with the Dali Lama administering the Old City? It would be an act of penance for Jews and Palestinian muslims. DNA analysis indicates that these two groups spring from the same origin. Maybe the children of Abraham can show their regrets for spilling so much of their brethren’s blood by enduring this for a few decades. Besides, I wouldn’t mind poking the Chinese dragon a bit.
the threat doesn’t go away. isn’t that clear by now?
the question is what to do about the the threat.
and please know that the threat of individual death and the destruction of one’s culture is not a threat that only jews have reason to fear
if you are willing, you might consider reading a comment i wrote a few days ago. don’t want to repeat it, but here’s the link.
Yonatan Schapira..a former Captain in the Israeli Air Force..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA3QzmWTp20
Olmert: Israel must return to 1967 borders
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert took advantage of yesterday’s special Knesset marking the 13th anniversary of the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin to call for territorial withdrawals in all disputed areas and to denounce violence on the part of Jewish settlers.
“We must give up Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem and return to the core of the territory that is the State of Israel prior to 1967, with minor corrections dictated by the reality created since then,” he said.
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“Many Israelis viciously beat up Palestinians seeking to harvest olives as they have for centuries, and there is no end [to it]. Young Israelis, smitten by messianic dreams, hit our soldiers, breaking their bones and threatening their lives, and no one stops them,” Olmert said. “I will not permit this to continue,” he promised.
Olmert also said that, “Every government will need to tell the truth, which unfortunately will require us to tear out many parts of the homeland in Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.” Addressing the settlers, he said: “You, too, will have do carry out a moral reckoning and reach a decision.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1036118.html