hamas-symbol.thumbnail.jpgWhen Israel invaded Lebanon, it set its victory conditions "destroying" Hezbollah.  Since that was impossible, day one it was clear that Israel could not and would not win the war.  The scope of the loss was not yet clear, but that it would be a loss was not in question.  Things aren’t quite as clear in the Israeli attack on Gaza.  Still, Israel has set is victory conditions. To win it needs to either:

a) destroy Hamas and have Fatah take over; or,
b) stop the rocket attacks permanently.

To win Hamas needs to:

a) not be destroyed; and,
b) not stop the missile attacks unless they get the border crossings opened. Note that if they start the attacks up a month after the end of
the war, that’s good enough to show it wasn’t a victory.

I think Israel’s victory conditions are a fair bit harder to achieve.  But Hamas is, militarily, extremely weak. On the other hand, at a certain point all they have to do is fade into the population, let the Israelis withdraw, kill any Fatah carpetbaggers and then start shooting missiles again.

A subset of what Israel is trying to do is the repeated talking point about "not allowing rearmament".  What this means is "we want the international community, especially Egypt, to enforce our blockade on Gaza, so that no goods come in or out that aren’t inspected based on our rules about what is allowed to go into Gaza.  There’s some talk of America or Europeans enforcing this on the Egyptian side, but if they do so it will be extremely unpopular in the Muslim world, and show, once again, that they are on the side of the Israelis and not even handed, since they arm one side, and won’t allow the other side to even control its own borders (remembering always that Hamas is the legally elected government.)

In any case, the key point is simple enough—Israel has to at the very least stop the missiles, permanently.  Ideally it has to install Fatah as a puppet government.  If it fails to do at least one of those things it has lost the war, no matter what the casualty ratios.  And since if Hamas is still in charge it’ll keep launching rockets till it gets what it wants, the only way the Israelis win is if they can get Fatah into Gaza and have Fatah exterminate the remains Hamas for them.  So this operation is all about weakening Hamas enough that Fatah carpetbaggers can finish the job.

As for Hamas, having tried to govern from the open and having it only set them up for mass assassination, they will probably evolve into a combination Mafia/Insurgency model.  Instead of ruling openly, they will rule from the shadows.  No one in the military or security apparatus will be publicly named.  They will fight through ambush and IEDs.  Let the Israelis roll through the middle of Gaza if they want, but they’ll be taking some of their troops home in body bags from explosives.

And the rocket attacks won’t stop unless Hamas gets what it wants.