When Israel invaded Lebanon, it set its victory conditions "destroying" Hezbollah. Since that was impossible, day one it was clear that Israel could not and would not win the war. The scope of the loss was not yet clear, but that it would be a loss was not in question. Things aren’t quite as clear in the Israeli attack on Gaza. Still, Israel has set is victory conditions. To win it needs to either:
a) destroy Hamas and have Fatah take over; or,
b) stop the rocket attacks permanently.
To win Hamas needs to:
a) not be destroyed; and,
b) not stop the missile attacks unless they get the border crossings opened. Note that if they start the attacks up a month after the end of
the war, that’s good enough to show it wasn’t a victory.
I think Israel’s victory conditions are a fair bit harder to achieve. But Hamas is, militarily, extremely weak. On the other hand, at a certain point all they have to do is fade into the population, let the Israelis withdraw, kill any Fatah carpetbaggers and then start shooting missiles again.
A subset of what Israel is trying to do is the repeated talking point about "not allowing rearmament". What this means is "we want the international community, especially Egypt, to enforce our blockade on Gaza, so that no goods come in or out that aren’t inspected based on our rules about what is allowed to go into Gaza. There’s some talk of America or Europeans enforcing this on the Egyptian side, but if they do so it will be extremely unpopular in the Muslim world, and show, once again, that they are on the side of the Israelis and not even handed, since they arm one side, and won’t allow the other side to even control its own borders (remembering always that Hamas is the legally elected government.)
In any case, the key point is simple enough—Israel has to at the very least stop the missiles, permanently. Ideally it has to install Fatah as a puppet government. If it fails to do at least one of those things it has lost the war, no matter what the casualty ratios. And since if Hamas is still in charge it’ll keep launching rockets till it gets what it wants, the only way the Israelis win is if they can get Fatah into Gaza and have Fatah exterminate the remains Hamas for them. So this operation is all about weakening Hamas enough that Fatah carpetbaggers can finish the job.
As for Hamas, having tried to govern from the open and having it only set them up for mass assassination, they will probably evolve into a combination Mafia/Insurgency model. Instead of ruling openly, they will rule from the shadows. No one in the military or security apparatus will be publicly named. They will fight through ambush and IEDs. Let the Israelis roll through the middle of Gaza if they want, but they’ll be taking some of their troops home in body bags from explosives.
And the rocket attacks won’t stop unless Hamas gets what it wants.



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I cannot imagine what life would be like living in either place. Course I’d rather be in Israel than Palistine. This is so sad.
When are all these military geniuses going to learn that you can’t fight a guerilla war on the enemy’s home turf? The Europeans learned it in the fifties and sixties, we learned it in Viet Nam, forgot, and we are learning it again in Iraq. If the home population doesn’t want you around it’s going to be trouble…every time.
I think this quotation is applicable to the descendants of Abraham.
Thanks for posting this –
Fatah is corrupt and a puppet of Isreal and the US. When the head puppet got up and blamed this disaster on Hamas it became clear to all who he worked for.
Isreal may of just assurred that Fatah will be thrown out during the next election and replace by a Hamas government for all of Palestine.
This idiotcy has got to stop:Every year an incursion from Israel with the pronouncement that Hammas is going to be done in,in the end hammas’s resolve gets stronger & a year from now the whole exercise repeats.As if we are not aware our policy has been a miserable failure.Obama needs new thinkers, you can forget the old tired advisers who are now under HRClinton.They were the ones who formulated the failed US-Israel-Palestine policy under BClinton & carried to it’s failed conclusion under Bush.
This just makes me sick.
If I’m an Israeli, I’m terrified that everyone wants to destroy me, because they’ve done it before…
If I’m Palestinian, I’m terrified that my family will be doomed to starvation and prison, because they’ve done it before because I’m not born into the “right” life.
If I’m just a human being, I’m terrified at the actions of my brethren in every direction.
Where is God? Where is Allah?
If there is no “spiritual” merit, then for “heaven’s” sake…
STOP MURDERING EACH OTHER!!! For the sake of humanity.
This is pure stupidity and insanity.
Olmert’s remarks are realy going to change the dynamics of this situation.
Sounds like Israel is implementing CYA mode.
Hamas May Survive Offensive, Israel Says
So, Ian…the Hamas strategy will be to survive by allowing anarchy (i.e. the man that comes in the night, or blood feuds) to govern Gaza? No police, no one maintaining any semblance of the facilities (water, electricity, food supplies, garbage) to make a functioning civil society. And for this they get to shoot rockets into Southern Israel?
This is victory?
linky?
I think this is what oldgold is talking about.
War – The longer it goes, the more insane it usually becomes.
This is all so nutty. Is there any actual evidence that the so-called “Abraham” even existed? I’m not asking about speculation, I’m asking about empirical evidence?
Yeah, great psychology, spank you until you are bleeding and then say they are sorry and why don’t you love me anymore. Abuse runs from experience…people are taught by experts…
Sooner or later you have to say that you can’t abuse me anymore…even if you were abused and have an “excuse”…it’s not my fault. Stop it, or I’m calling the cops…
So…why won’t the cops do anything???
Of course. There’s always DNA.
I’m guessing not, most of the Old Testament is comprised of composite fables, some borrowed from much older mythologies.
From Wikipedia:
thanks,…. i think.
Yeah. Both wonderful and horrifying.
http://www.latimes.com/news/na…..5919.story
Dear Ian, your analysis seems to overlook the great middle. Neither Israel nor Hamas is going to reap any great victory from this. And the people they govern will not benefit.
How you can even posit Hamas as victorious while it leads Gaza into ruin seems almost juvenile.
I think, not that you or anyone else cares, that you might consider viewing the events between Hamas and Israel from an objective point-of-view. Neither side can or will ever be victorious, because both sides are fighting from basically out-of-balance, viewpoints — both having suffered horrendous events. Both sides have horror stories of loss of life resulting from hatred from others and each other. That is what is causing the tragedy of this whole thing. There are and never will be “winners”. What has to happen is “timeout” and both parties need to have their “needs” met. Murder from either side is wrong and has to stop. Period.
Olmert is leading Israel down a very similar path.
It’s really who’s lost the least.
-G
Becuase Hamas = Gaza. The people voted for Hamas.
For ever gazian killed, Hamas gains a number of staunch supporters.
Hamas and Gaza are probably inseperable.
Tis a pity.
I think I care. I certainly agree ENTIRELY with what you are saying. I don’t see how they can stop fighting unless the EU, Arab countries and the US all intervene together to both broker and guarantee a compromise.
The fighting has cost both sides nearly all of their mental health and it won’t return unless they learn to live together.
The people of Gaza and the West Bank voted for Hamas because they could no longer stand to vote for Fatah. If None of the Above was on the ballot it would have swept to victory.
“As for Hamas, having tried to govern from the open and having it only set them up for mass assassination,” just adds to the incredible sadness I feel. Using “bunker buster” bombs to assassinate a man and his family because he’s defending his city is just so despicable.
The 2nd monthly shipment of death from the US MIC is so big the usual contractors are farming it out:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenew…..736369.htm
OT: Ian, I found a great explanation of the money supply in the online Chapter 37 from Ellen Brown’s book, Web of Debt, at http://www.webofdebt.com/ and Chapter 1 is a great read also.
karen
LS and Macaquerman, the idea that the Israelis and Palestinians are equally at fault, or are being equally irrational here, totally ignores the issue of the blockade. The Israelis are in essence demanding that the Palestinians agree to quietly starve to death behind the walls Israel has built around them. The fact that a few Israelis have been killed by the Palestinian’s rockets is unfortunate, but given the unwillingness or incapacity of the rest of the world to stop the blockade, how else do you expect the Palestinians to react to Israel’s campaign of strangulation? What would you do to get the blockade lifted, if you were responsible for saving the people of Gaza?
Gaza is the result of Israel’s creation which was raw,unbridled terrorism based/imposed colonialism. Gazans are refugees. A refugee population for which Israel has created an open air prison for called Gaza which despite Israeli lies and propaganda is under full Israeli subjugation.
Hamas–the legally elected government Gazans voted upon–ran afoul of Israel’s desires and intents that Gaza not break out of Israeli overt/covert political/martial overlordship. Fatah–Israel’s chosen/favored Palestinian puppet–lost the election–not because Hamas was so much better but because Fatah is so corrupt/undermined by Israel.
Now Israel(and WashingtonDC which stupidly has become Israel’s pawn) has set out to wreak ruin,mayhem and lots of death on Gazans to rid Gaza of Hamas and demoralize Gazans and remind Gazans who indeed runs Gaza Prison.
One can hope the Israelis will have exposed themselves to much deserved international scorn and sanction after this brutal Israeli attack on Gaza gets a full reveal.
Hamas will now only have become more radicalized and will have learned that the rules of the game are at whim of whatever Israel thinks it can inflict and get away with which appear to be anything short of outright genocide of Gazans so far. Expungement of Gaza and Gazans clearly Israel’s deeper intent and sought outcome. The Gazans are a surplus population that Israel does not need yet they stand between Israel and full Israeli colonization of Gaza. This is the deeper nut of this 21st century–surplus human populations being badly treated because they are of no perceived inherent value. See Mynamar for another example of this.
It is not pretty seeing what Israel is doing to Arab Palestinians. Israel is trying to expunge Arab Palestine. Gazans are getting the full treatment over past three weeks. Will Israel succeed? All in all it is doubtful Israel can short of Israel becoming an international pariah.
Israel is only getting away with any or all of this because WashingtonDC is stupid enough to be played by Israel for lots of money,military backing and political cover. Olmert’s derailing Condi Rice at UN via WH string pull a full illustration of how WashingtonDC has been perverted by Israel.
Israel is a throwback to 18th and 19th century European colonial era and as such faces deep set political fissures with the displaced Palestinian refugee issue and trying to expunge what remains of Arab Palestine.
Israel surely has now driven Hamas deeper into radical politics. Fatah is a spent,corrupted and bought Israeli puppet. Israel claims there is no peace because there is no authority to broker peace with. This is an Israeli lie. Israel does not want any vestige of Arab Palestine to come into full sovereign status. Israel wants Arab Palestine land. Not peace with Arab Palestinians. Claiming otherwise is simply a big lie.
Israel is going to suffer from the consequences most when this current attack on Gaza is revealed in fullness as to what Israel did to too many helpless Gazan civilians. Israel will try to place responsibility and blame on Hamas but that is a lie. Lies bring down the liar who is telling them.
After telling too many lies too often Israel will have little credibility going forward. That is the lasting fate of telling lies and being a liar.
I don’t see the Gazans accepting a Fatah government any more than they did occupation by Israel. And a condition for winning has to include a loosening of the blockade so that the economy of Gaza can be recreated.
M.J. Rosemberg made a very good point the other day. Hamas was willing to negotiate a ceasefire and hold to it, until the Israelis tightened the blockade almost completely, in violation of the agreement. Hamas makes and keeps deals with the Israelis. If Hamas is destroyed, the replacement is not going to be the Quisling Fatah government. It will be al Qaeda, who do not make deals with Jews or infidels. Al Qaeda, M.J. says is already in Gaza.
As for Hamas winning, consider that Abbas is finding his support in the West Bank weakening because of his lack of support for Hamas. There is an increasing possibility that at the next election, Hamas could take over the West Bank. Mubarak is also feeling political heat, with sentiment flowing towards Hamas and the Gazans. No surprise there, since Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to begin with. Don’t be surprised if Mubarak has to crack down further in Egypt to keep his job. Will some young army officer find a way to displace him as Nasser did to King Farouk in 1952? The neighborhood is getting more dangerous for Israel as their best Arab allies have to distance themselves because of internal political reactions to the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Unfortunately, I don’t see the Israelis as trusting the Gazans not to take the a cease fire and opening of the crossings, rebuild their economy, and then go back to firing missiles. The Israelis appear to have run out of the capacity to trust their enemies.
Below that it gets even more complicated and uncertain. What certainties there appear to be are all quite bad. And right now, both Hamas and Israel think they can still win the end game of this mess, so neither is willing to accept surrender or even apparent surrender. That’s what’s keeping this going now. There’s too much price already been paid, and no one is willing to abandon the sunk costs without getting something big for them.
This is a classic Gordian knot, and Alexander is nowhere to be seen.
Nice summary.
The blockade came after the rocket fire, not before. And if you attempt to justify random murder, you’re as irrational and unethical as anyone you despise.
In the short term, things look bleak indeed. Longer term, opportunities for Hamas to become a legitimate political force is a must. That means, of course, that they have to get of their terrorist footing. We are starting to see this with Hezbollah and its reluctance to attack northern Israel during this current crisis because of upcoming Lebanese elections.
Israel has to stop assassinating Hamas leaders, lift the embargo on Gaza and the West Bank and actively promote economic development in the Palestinian Territories. If you ever travel in the West Bank, you will surely notice the economic disparity between Palestinian towns and Israeli settlements. This “separate-but-equal” practice must be stopped. It will take considerable political courage by Israeli leaders in the face of incredible racism within elements of Israeli society and similar courage within the Palestinian leadership as well.
This will have to be jump started by external forces – an Obama or Clinton boot in the ass, so to speak. Let’s see what happens. See Global Investment Watch on this.
All right, Macaquerman, if you can so very confidently assert that “the blockade came after the rocket fire, not before”, then I presume you know your chronology well enough to tell us precisely when you think the rocket fire began, and when the blockade began?
Or perhaps, if you don’t really have that data on the tip of your tongue, you would like to consider that the blockade and the violence on both sides are merely the latest manifestations of an ongoing war that dates back decades? Every piece of farm land stolen, every olive tree cut down so that a Palestinian farmer can’t benefit from it, every Jew’s only road built, every Palestinian owned building destroyed, every drop of water that Palestinians aren’t allowed to use because their water use is controlled by the Israeli’s, it all combines to form part of the Israeli campaign of economic strangulation which does, slowly, quietly, insidiously, kill Palestinians. Because it’s all part of a long term campaign of ethnic cleansing.
And I ask again, if you were responsible for trying to stop this long term ethnic cleaning, what would you do? How would you react to being strangled?