Comments on: Economic Predictions Scorecard http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/ Firedoglake weblog Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:01:04 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Ian Welsh http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1782458 Ian Welsh Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:15:45 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1782458 <p>Even classical Keynesians understand that printing money can have inflationary effects. See: Weimar Republic.</p> <p>I guess Keynes was a progressive monetarist. Who knew.</p> Even classical Keynesians understand that printing money can have inflationary effects. See: Weimar Republic.

I guess Keynes was a progressive monetarist. Who knew.

]]> By: techno http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781998 techno Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:26:38 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781998 <p>I would say that anyone who is still worried about “hyperinflation” hasn’t got much of a track record to brag about. Further, since inflation is the big worry of the investing classes, I wonder how your economics, such as it is, could ever be considered progressive. You may think the idea of being a “progressive monetarist” is possible–I happen to believe it it absurd.</p> I would say that anyone who is still worried about “hyperinflation” hasn’t got much of a track record to brag about. Further, since inflation is the big worry of the investing classes, I wonder how your economics, such as it is, could ever be considered progressive. You may think the idea of being a “progressive monetarist” is possible–I happen to believe it it absurd.

]]> By: Ian Welsh http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781569 Ian Welsh Mon, 05 Jan 2009 01:52:05 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781569 <p>lol, no one is trying to buy me off. Being an accurate economic forecaster is not in demand either way - to get it right, or to keep quiet. They just ignore you, then when you get most of it right, they keep ignoring you and credit other people. I ain’t in the club, if you’re not in the club, you don’t matter.</p> lol, no one is trying to buy me off. Being an accurate economic forecaster is not in demand either way – to get it right, or to keep quiet. They just ignore you, then when you get most of it right, they keep ignoring you and credit other people. I ain’t in the club, if you’re not in the club, you don’t matter.

]]> By: SanderO http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781557 SanderO Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:57:15 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781557 <p>Ian is sharp as a tack on dough issues.</p> Ian is sharp as a tack on dough issues.

]]> By: siri http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781555 siri Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:51:21 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781555 <p>wow<br /> Ian.<br /> and you aren’t working for the Obama Administration……..</p> <p>why????????</p> <p>DAMN!</p> wow
Ian.
and you aren’t working for the Obama Administration……..

why????????

DAMN!

]]> By: SanderO http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781554 SanderO Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:50:22 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781554 <p>We ARE in a depression. There is no economic metric which is stable or on the rise. Every single one of them is going down down down.</p> We ARE in a depression. There is no economic metric which is stable or on the rise. Every single one of them is going down down down.

]]> By: perris http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781548 perris Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:36:10 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781548 <p>I would like to know what exactly it is about this economy that is NOT a depression?</p> <p>I point out to everyone in live discussion who refuses to acknowledge, the <i>great</i> depression was a <b>great</b> depression, by definition there are other levels far below</p> <p>this depression might not be as “great” as the “great” depression but it is really really close and it is bizarre some “economists” are still trying to claim it’s not even a “recessions”</p> I would like to know what exactly it is about this economy that is NOT a depression?

I point out to everyone in live discussion who refuses to acknowledge, the great depression was a great depression, by definition there are other levels far below

this depression might not be as “great” as the “great” depression but it is really really close and it is bizarre some “economists” are still trying to claim it’s not even a “recessions”

]]> By: wesgpc http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781545 wesgpc Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:32:35 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781545 <p>well, SanderO, you are real conservative. Your recommendations sound like an update of the John Adams/ Thomas Jefferson approach to financial markets (one of the few areas where they agreed).</p> <p>Regarding Ian’s predictions: I forgot to say hurrah for his prediction about decoupling. The idea of decoupling, when international markets were getting more intertwined through financial markets, was one of the most baseless and wishful-thinking fantasies I ever heard of. There is even an economic jargon word for the phenomenon of different economies’ cycles getting more correlated because of increased financial market integration: “entrainment”. Did anyone ever hear about “entrainment”, by that or any other name? I didn’t follow the financial press enough at that time, so I don;t know. But even I heard “decoupling” over and over again, that though “Well, we will see, but I doubt it.”</p> <p>I think Ian got a few really important big predictions right and should consider rescoring his self-report card up a few points.</p> well, SanderO, you are real conservative. Your recommendations sound like an update of the John Adams/ Thomas Jefferson approach to financial markets (one of the few areas where they agreed).

Regarding Ian’s predictions: I forgot to say hurrah for his prediction about decoupling. The idea of decoupling, when international markets were getting more intertwined through financial markets, was one of the most baseless and wishful-thinking fantasies I ever heard of. There is even an economic jargon word for the phenomenon of different economies’ cycles getting more correlated because of increased financial market integration: “entrainment”. Did anyone ever hear about “entrainment”, by that or any other name? I didn’t follow the financial press enough at that time, so I don;t know. But even I heard “decoupling” over and over again, that though “Well, we will see, but I doubt it.”

I think Ian got a few really important big predictions right and should consider rescoring his self-report card up a few points.

]]> By: SanderO http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781529 SanderO Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:07:45 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781529 <p>Banks don’t have to be recapitalized.</p> <p>Banks have to be closed. We need to make banking like a public utility. You deposit money and receive some interest and banks can lend their ASSETS/deposits at a slightly higher interest. That’s it. No leverage or fractional lending.</p> <p>The stock market needs to be regulated as well so that shares represent real fractions of a company and there are no classes of stock and transaction fees are minimal. Stocks MUST be held for a minimum of 3 months and shorting is unlawful.</p> <p>We need to get real accounting and no off books BS, And offshore tax havens and tax shelters and so forth. The financial sectors smoke and mirrors needs to come to an end.</p> Banks don’t have to be recapitalized.

Banks have to be closed. We need to make banking like a public utility. You deposit money and receive some interest and banks can lend their ASSETS/deposits at a slightly higher interest. That’s it. No leverage or fractional lending.

The stock market needs to be regulated as well so that shares represent real fractions of a company and there are no classes of stock and transaction fees are minimal. Stocks MUST be held for a minimum of 3 months and shorting is unlawful.

We need to get real accounting and no off books BS, And offshore tax havens and tax shelters and so forth. The financial sectors smoke and mirrors needs to come to an end.

]]> By: BooRadley http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781524 BooRadley Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:04:02 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2009/01/04/economic-predictions-scorecard/#comment-1781524 <p>Thanks to EurekaSprings for opening the digg.</p> Thanks to EurekaSprings for opening the digg.

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