As Stirling pointed out earlier today, Terrorism works. The Mumbai attacks, targeted deliberately at both foreigners, and more importantly, India’s own elites, led to an entirely predictable response: India started seriously threatening Pakistan and demanding Pakistani leaders do things (like turn over Pakistanis to the Indian legal system) which no Pakistani politician could do and stay in power. Indeed, it’s unlikely they could do such a thing and stay alive.
So Pakistan moved its forces from the tribal areas to the border with India, in response to India’s threats, and the terrorists no longer have to deal with the Pakistani military. This is, clearly, what they wanted. Terrorism worked.
It also means that the US is now solely responsible for its own supply line into Afghanistan. Given that essentially the entire US airlift capacity is being repositioned for the surge into Afghanistan, this means the number of troops the US can reliably support is now sharply limited by that airlift capacity. Win-win for the terrorists: they no longer have to worry about Pakistani troops, and harassing US supplies has become so much easier.
Remember that 9/11 was also a great success, not just operationally, but strategically. It accomplished what bin Laden wanted—it got American troops in on the ground where they could be killed and the cost of the war put the American economy under great strain. It continues to pay dividends, as the US army, smarting from what it privately knows was a loss in Iraq (you don’t pay people to stop attacking you if you won the war) wants a do-over in Afghanistan, not because it makes sense strategically (it’s destabilizing Pakistan, a far more important place than Afghanistan) but becase their pride has been hurt.
Terrorism works. It works not because it can succeed operationally, but because elites play into the hands of terrorists and do strategically stupid and counterproductive things when terrorists prod them hard enough. Both the Mumbai attacks and 9/11 were aimed at people who mattered—wealthy and important people in both countries.
Expect there to be a lot more terrorism going forward. The results to cost ratio is very very high. It works. As long as it continues to work to effect policy (major trillion dollar wars, major shifts in military deployment, major shifts in diplomacy) it will continue to be used.
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Yes terrorism works but when the government uses that act to their own advantage it is another act of terrorism on top of it…… THAT was 911….. one act by Ben Laden and then years of terrorism by the BushCo….
Well, it didn’t force American troops out of Saudi Arabia or get the Jews out of Israel.
Of course terrorism works, that is why people employ it. It works by forcing the stronger power to behave stupidly.
One of the asymmetries in asymmetric warfare is that our opponent spends a pittance and we respond by spending all we’ve got and then some. Aren’t we lucky to have leaders with the courage to make the stupid choices?
It does not necessarily work immediately, nor does it work every time it is employed. It does, however, work as often as not. Funny you should mention Israel ….
Actually, American troops did leave Saudi Arabia.
Which was always much more important to bin Laden than Palestinians anyway.
ian – i think terrorism can work operationally too, at least in some cases (for example hezbollah’s success getting israel, france and us out of lebanon. i’m using pape’s definitions and research since his is the only systematic study i’m aware of (and it’s only on suicide terrorism). do you know of any other? i’m interested in widening my reference base.
you don’t call that an operational success?
It was done quietly, as if al Qaeda wouldn’t notice that they had accomplished that portion of their agenda.
no AQ – americans. we are the target of the pr campaign.
I stand corrected, you are absolutely right.
i’m still working at internalizing it…. along with many other things. have to keep reminding myself.
Evening, all-
The nexus of AQ, Taliban, and the Pakistani military is the ISI, the Pakistani intelligence service. If there is to be a conduit for a nuclear weapon to AQ from Pakistan it will go through elements of the ISI.
teddy upstairs
The first 200 pages of Alistair Horne’s A Savage War of Peace talks about the methods used by the Algerians in the early part of the struggle against the French. Suicide bombings were unknown at the time and operations on the scale of the WTC were out of the question. Bombings and assassinations in Europe during the 60s and 70s were also along “conventional” lines. Same for South America. Munich is another example. I haven’t looked for any unclassified studies of terrorism but I think there’s enough in print to get an idea.
Jews have been forcing people out of the British protectorate for 9 decades.
It is by their own admission an international conspiracy as jews have the right to be in Zion. The total resources of Judaism are supporting that state. The wealth behind Isreal has not been quantified that I have seen. Isreal has ther strongest economy in the world and enjoys a thriving tourism business.
They have been recruiting new citizens agressively for many decades. They have a real estate expansion program to house these immigrants. Over 10 million Russina and other USSR jews have moved into Isreal. More are planning to come.
THey bring with them a giant spy network that has intelligence resiurcews that rival USA.
They are a very dangerous nation have have a very strong and influential base in the USA. Several AIPAC 4exrcutyive were involved in a spy operation in the DOD and convicted but not forced to serve sentences. They will likely be pardoned by Bush.
ISI has had their hands in just about everything that’s happened in the region for years. That bunch is a real piece of work.
pape studies why and when people engage in suicide terrorism (as he defines it) – i thought it was really interesting and not intuitively obvious prior to reading. only goes back to 1980 though. was especially wondering if there were any other researchers who have different conclusions, data, etc.
i don’t agree with pape’s politics – at all. but data is data.
From Wiki.
bigbrother, this is too much: the total resources of judaism support israel? the strongest economy in the world? 10 million from russia?
this is all wrong – the population of israel is only about 7 million. i know lots of jews who don’t support israel financially or otherwise. and if it has the strongest economy in the world it doesn’t need our financial support. but i’ve been there and saw a prosperous, but no more prosperous than other developed countries (and less than many), tiny nation.
this is NOT about jews. it is about israel.
Our military of 1/2 million cannot withstand the “never ending war”. Our treasury is being emptied by corporations. Our national budget cannot fund these efforts. Neocan and Fundamentalist have gotten us into a lot of trouble. Anyone know how to get into a stronger/safer position as a nation.
The war like elements of the world are forcing global war. Insanity rather than reason rules.
badly phrased. I meant “in addition to operationally”.
thanks. i’ve just been told i’m taking this all too seriously. having a hard time not though.
Immigration from the USSR was one million. Their stock market is doing better than any. I stand corrected on population growth. ButZion is the home for any jew.
The FBI never found any evidence to link him to 911.
I am so walking into a hornets nest, but I have to ask – what about the video tape of Bin Laden discussing the attack AFTER the attack do you doubt? The translation, or was it a planted tape with fake voices?
I mean, really. This is just…
Most definitely.
George W. Bush-Terrorist in the White House.
http://www.nogw.com/cia.html
Juan Cole..Afghan article says Bin-Ladin hunt phoney.
http://www.juancole.com/2008/1…..-hunt.html
You must be referring to the fake fat bearded Osama? The FBI does not think it is valid..hence..no evidence to link him to 911. He is not listed on their website in regards to 911.
Rex Tomb, Chief of Investigative Publicity for the FBI..”The reason why 911 is not mentioned on Usama Bin Laden’s Most Wanted page is because the FBI has no hard evidence connecting Bin Laden to 911″.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/…..atape.html
More on videos with some quotes about Osama.
http://www.welfarestate.com/binladen/surprise/
Sept. 16/01 ..Osama says, “I stress that I have not carried out this act, which appears to have been carried out by individuals with their own motivation”.
I doubt that many people remember that fact. He denied involvement; he did not take credit for the attack. When asked if he believed the denial, Bush said that he was the #1 suspect. Not a yes or no answer, but now we have had 8 years of Bush’s lies and evasions when asked a question, so can recognize the tactic he uses.
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/U…..en.denial/
Now we need a “Terrorism Works: Israeli Edition”