NOTE: Hope to ask Paul Krugman about all of this and more this afternoon during our book salon. Hope you can join us at 11 am PT/2 pm ET.
If this were a mere flight of jabberwocky, I wouldn’t bother. But this expertiness-by-proxy happens way too frequently. Behold, Ben Bernanke as quoted by Swampland’s Scherer:
On the upside, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression, says we are experiencing an "order of magnitude" different kind of event when compared to the Great Depression. So we have that going for us.
Let’s go to some history, courtesy of Krugman’s book, about Bernanke’s finely-honed antennae:
A year later, Ben Bernanke…gave a remarkably upbeat speech titled "The Great Moderation," in which he argued…that modern macroeconomic policy had solved the problem of the business cycle — or, more precisely, reduced the problem to the point that it was more of a nuisance than a front-rank issue.
Lesson? Bernanke’s Depression history expertise doesn’t make him infallible.
Then, I read this from a GAO report:
…the Treasury Department has yet to impose necessary internal controls or decide how to determine if the bailout program is achieving its goals. The auditors said it was too soon for them to tell whether the bailout was working.
"Without a strong oversight and monitoring function, Treasury’s ability to help ensure an appropriate level of accountability and transparency will be limited…."
Well…duh. Who could possibly have forseen a need for transparency and oversight of billions of taxpayer dollars being handed over to failing businesses in an economic crunch caused by waste, fraudulent behavior, poor business decisions, the gutting of regulations and worse? (Yes, I am rolling my eyes…why do you ask?)
What is Treasury doing? They are staffing up. They are trying to gin up ways to hand over more taxpayer money. But accountability? Not topping the "to do" list. Why aren’t they being asked about that directly? Beats me.
CJR opined earlier that the separation between financial and political reporting does no one any favors. Because the comprehension of the finer points of money wonkery — coupled with "experts" glib use of shortcut methodology, inaccurate reasoning and smoke and mirrors econ wizardry — goes over the heads of journalists who haven’t covered this beat since their college paper days.
Research may be beyond some folks when a blast fax will do.
It’s nearly impossible to have a full background at your fingertips, when it isn’t your beat. Going through original documents and speeches, along with reasoning takes time that most 24-hour news deadlines don’t give you. Financial reportage must be beyond latest version of "OMG! My 401K lost 30% of its value this week!" Although experts in finance and politics aren’t so easy to find, panic journalism is no better than panic policymaking.
Skepticism. It’s not just for bloggers.
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They forgot voodoo economics.
Looks like I’m stuck at the cesspool this afternoon. I’ll just have to read Book Saloon (intentional) later this evening.
Am really looking forward to Krugman this afternoon — lots to talk with him about, and more to come as this mess lurches forward, I’m afraid.
cnbc covers DC like crazy these days.
If you have a question you’d like to throw into the mix, let me know and I’ll try to remember to ask it for you.
Well, that can be interpreted. Could it be an “order of magnitude” WORSE?
My aunt, who lived through the great Depression thinks so. Of course, she’s not economist, but she’s a pretty sharp tack.
I just so deeply distrust these people and their “spin”, while they are looting our Treasury.
Morning Christy
Honestly!
(hope your eyes didn’t get stuck in the back of your head. ;)
I can’t imagine why… *blink*blink*
Thanks. The problem is I know just enough to be dangerous and was hoping that either one of his or our smarter folks comments would spark an intelligent question.
When are the bankers going to work for $1 a year? What is the plan? Goals? Hmph.
Keep up the lack of oversight. $700 billion pumped into the rat hole and no change. There’s your order of magnitude all right.
J.K. Gailbraith in HIS analysis of the great depression, blamed concentration of wealth. One does not have to be a trained economist to see that’s a major cause of economic problems. In a society that depends on consumer demand to keep things going, it stands to reason consumers need money to purchase consumables. The wealthy, despite multiple cars, are not enough to keep a large enterprise like automobile manufacture going. The wealthy do not see their greed as killing the goose that lays the golden egg, so they do not want to pay taxes, though their tax payments do not effect their living standard, and they do not wish to contribute a dollar of their holdings to the common good.
The other problem is that we have short memories or we don’t live long enough for recollections to matter. The decision to keep banks, insurance companies, and brokers separate, a product of the last depression was repealed in the late nineties by a Democratic administration. Did Clinton, Rubin and company believe we had arrived at a greedless society? Or perhaps, being manic-depressive, they decided it was depression time.
Has anyone figured out how many airplanes are owned by CITI or AIG or ….
Krugman talks a lot about potential root issues, including Glass-Steagall and others in the book. I’ll be talking a bit about that in my intro piece this afternoon, but I’m sure he’d welcome questions on some of this — and the myriad other issues discussed — during the chat…
I wouldn’t bank on that happening…
*ba dum bum*
Is it me, or has CNBC seemed rather schizophrenic these days to you, too? The pundits alternate between being in a panic about their own portfolios and biases and then trying to prop up each other’s spirits with the latest “good news” tidbit they heard from a friend of a friend.
It’s been like watching Gordon Gecko on speed…
You are almost right, the problem is they, themselves were greedy, whether is was for power or money…short memories don’t matter what matters is those who want and need money and power for themselves. These people really believe that they are better than others, more deserving than others. It all boils down to a belief that might makes right, might makes genetic right, dna rules! Have it or die! Believe or be vanquished….
Hanky and Benny are setting a new record, $8.5 Trillion dollars or should we say $8,500 Billion. This is the biggest theft in the history of the world.
It is morning in the New World Bankrupt America Order. Heck of a job, neo-cons.
this should be one of the best ever, Christy.
and FDL has had some really good ones. .)
And as a reward for your incompetence and thefts we are going to eliminate your taxes.
The book is fantastic, even for the non-econ-wonks like me, it was a fascinating read. And the discussion about the various theories and analyses ought to be lively, to say the least. *g*
(bows) Konnichiwa, sophiehunter
Would love to stay and chat with you but gotta go jump in the cesspool.
Be good to yourselves, and all other living things.
Namaste
What is Treasury doing? They are staffing up. They are trying to gin up ways to hand over more taxpayer money. But accountability? Not topping the “to do” list. Why aren’t they being asked about that directly? Beats me.
If I remember how agencies were working a when I retired couple of years ago, the Treasury is probably writing up a bid, or finding a contractor to write up a bid, to solicit private contractors to hand out the money.
OT
for those interested:
noon et today
Namaste
Namaste SD!
Several — check out the link there on the “staffing up” bit.
that would be hysterical if it weren’t actually true.
(((((Odetta)))))
She sang for all of us.
Did you email Horton? Did you listen to him on democracynow? He should be asked to defend his defense of Holder.
Step right up,get yer “trickled on” holidays…
Has anyone figured out who in the senate has put the hold on the confirmation of the IG?
Howie has a piece up in her honor
Missed the show, but Scott is generally pretty clear about his opinions. Was he unclear about his reasons for supporting Holder — or confusing in some way? Or is that a disagreement with his opinion? (Trying to see if I should find the show…)
have WJ on now.
Nothing definite as yet, that I’ve seen. But as of yesterday, Bunning’s office was the only likely suspect’s office refusing to say they weren’t placing the hold…so…
Has the queen knighted Krugman, yet? Can we call him Sir Paul?
Hey, Christy! That’s pretty darn close to the heart of the matter. By and large, folks seem to care only about what affects them directly (and then only when it’s actively affecting them). And then they go all Henny-Penny and finger pointy. Healthy skepticism (vs. perpetual cynicism) is a good thing, eh?!
hard to believe anyone wants to classify this as anything but a depression
the ”great” depression is not the standard for the least a depression can be it’s a standard for how big a depression can be
we have had real wages depress, real assets depress, real American based investments depress, financial security depress, retirement funds depress
now, some financial wizard wants to say this
Horton basically said that the Rich pardon and Chiquita work were regrettable but Holder had a reputation for playing well with others and it is a good pick.
oops
that’s supposed to read;
hard to believe anyone wants to classify this as anything but a depression
the ”great” depression is not the standard for the least a depression can be it’s a standard for how big a depression can be
we have had real wages depress, real assets depress, real American based investments depress, financial security depress, retirement funds depress
now, some financial wizard wants to say this is not a depression?
genious!
Jeez. I said that tongue-in-cheek, although I had seen actual occasions of contracting out the writing of a contract. This contracting of tasks could go on, like Colbert’s portraits within portraits, for almost the whole 700 billion.
That does not address what cases were persued during his tenure as USA.
Pretty much. I was trying to think of it as Schrodinger’s TARP — you open the box and we all get zapped. It’s schock doctrine writ contractor.
I think this point hits the nail on the head with respect to the general decline in the quality of journalism over the past 25 years. Independently on the built-in bias that comes from working for corporations that treat news as a profit centre, the fact that all these people are working to deadlines that don’t have the kind of timeline or copy editing facility that newspapers used to have means that they are reduced to pandering drivel. Once the networks realized that people seem to like drivel, or don’t care enough about the real stuff to affect their viewing habits, the game was up.
I sent Horton links to the two most recent posts here and told him that the second link had links to earlier pieces. I also told him that Obama’s national security & economics picks also stink.
Laura’s on my TV again. Click. Gone.
perris – if we didn’t have social security right now, how many retired and disabled people would be able to pay their rent or property taxes, heat their homes, etc?
to my non-econ eyes, that looks like the biggest reason everyone is not calling this a depression – because the effects of a massive loss of wealth is being masked by a critically important safety net.
G’Morning Christy and Firepups !
We put up the Tree last night, to counter the sadness of the Mumbai tragedy and it helped greatly.
A question for Krugman: Who would he have put as Treasury Sec, if not himself ?
Like SD, I will also be reading it later tonight.
Yeah, Laura will be on a ladder with glass cleaner and paper towels. George will mow the lawn.
(((Petro)))
Thinking of you and your family.
Dang, she has spent the past year preparing for this years WH Christmas decorations. She has to show off this stuff
I would like to suggest that we teach our children, nephews, nieces, grandchildren the way of decency. Too many times I hear children who claim there is no need for decency, they don’t know what the word even means. How sad is that for all of us? How can we say we care about others when our children only care about themselves? What have we taught them? When your children have no concept of sacrifice or love of others how can you say you do?
((( demi )))
Family is safe but lots of friends lost. Thankfully, this is making the public stand up and work for change in politics and all else.
yes.
Dear (((Petro plus)))
CNBC is always that way, only more so these days. I’m immune to it. I just let the garbage flow by without paying attention and tune in when there’s something I think might increase my knowledge.
Paulson and Bernanke have been massively ineffective and incompetent in dealing with the meltdown. They did nothing to head off or mitigate the bursting of the housing bubble last year. And although the bubble burst in August 2007, there were signs throughout 2006 of problems in the housing market. Bernanke came to his job at the Fed in February 2006 and Paulson his at Treasury in June 2006.
Once the housing crisis hit. Neither did anything aside from some sporadic single shot efforts to shore up markets, and, of course, they did nothing to reform them. Even after the failure of Bear Stearns in March 2008, Paulson and Bernanke continued to do as little as possible. It really seemed that all their efforts were geared to kicking the can down the road to the next Administration, which even at the time looked like it was going to be Democratic.
Then Fannie and Freddie happened in September and was followed by the disaster of Lehman. Lehman was an avoidable error. What it showed is that Paulson and Bernanke did not give even minimal thought to the consequences of a Lehman failure. The result was that money markets got burned. They stopped lending and voilà we had the credit crunch. At this point, Paulson and Bernanke panicked. Paulson came to Congress with his hair on fire (that is if he had had any) and demanded $700 billion carry around money. Bernanke began throwing hundreds of billions and then trillions at the credit problem in what were really unfocused efforts.
As I have written before, during all this, Paulson and Bernanke have failed to address a single one of the fundamental problems underlying the current meltdown: distressed homeowners (and the housing markets), bank insolvency (from their toxic assets), credit (despite the trillions spent to free it up), the derivative overhang (which threatens to swamp everything), and re-regulation (both to keep this from ever happening again and to keep the current mess from spinning further out of control).
All of this is a very long way of getting around to my point, which is that despite the horrendous record of Paulson and Bernanke for the last 2 1/2 years on this, there are idiot reporters out there quoting them as if they still have any credibility.
I’m so glad that your family is safe. And, also happy that you’re looking to see what can be learned and how we might benefit something out of the tragedy.
But she’s not hanging the ornament with “impeach Bush” on it.
Thanks Christy.
digg
Much appreciated … am also spending lots of time talking to people over there, who want to mimic Bush’s policies after 9/11 …
Good Morn Christy and Pups.
Dear Christy! You are absolutely on the most wonderful tear these days. Thank you for all the enlightening material on subjects that leave me slack-jawed without the “seminars” at the Lake.
I want to apologize for the mini-dust-up on your otherwise clear and precisely argued thread the other day.
http://firedoglake.com/2008/12…..-national-
security-and-foreign-policy-not-so-much/
admittedly a bit rocky all around by 114 +, but self-resolving and rather normal
then more serious 180 + thru the 200’s.
[all sites approximate]
Should it be advisable to run another “don’t feed those hiding under bridges” again sometime soon? I still don’t know if that’s what happened on the thread. I just hope some of us didn’t make it worse.
Oh Hugh, they will ignore you because reality is too hard.
Don’t remember. Are you in the school that thinks that Paulson deliberately let Lehman go because it was a Goldman Sachs rival?
J.K. Gailbraith used a shortcut term – wealth, in his writings. This leads many astray in their perceptions. The shortcut does refer to the accumulation of ownership and control over the economic means of production by one (a monopoly) or a few (an oligopoly) the result being an inordinate accumulation of income from the production of economic goods. Ogden Nash had many cartoons concerning the extension of economic power into the political realm during the late 1800’s, those should be revisited. The immense size of income did not allow for its use (or consumption) in the economic process and was converted to the form of wealth, most often in the corporate form which has the advantage of unlimited life. Those “Trusts” are still with us today in numerous forms. John D.Rockefeller’s numerous trusts are a good example. What so often is missed is these trusts, dedicated to charitable works, also allow the control of the economic means of production to be continued at a removal from the benefactor and their heirs, as well as from direct control of production.
Add to this, the necessity of finding competent management for large corporate concerns, a similar problem faced by governments in finding competent management, it is not a curiosity that the two are drawn from the same sources, Also, the military has much the same problem, the oft noted revolving door between government, business, and military is not an accident, it is a feature of this need for management skills. Traditionally governments, aristocracy, military, and business were the wells such management was drawn from, and now to some extent academia now provides that leadership, most are known to the others.
When Reagan “simplified” the federal tax system, from about 27 (IIRC) progressive levels to 2, one regressive 15% on all lower income taxpayers, and the other (XX%) effectively a tax cut on all higher income taxpayers, he also liberated the one restraint upon top level management compensation and consequently what would be done to obtain that renumeration, observe the ratio for renumeration go from 40 to 400 (or more) presently. The reduction on income tax was the direct cause for the phenomenon.
Maybe this narrative will serve your understanding better, maybe not….
Mornin’ Christy and Firedogs -
drivin’ by with a little o/t
this morning’s WaPo confirms Nora Dannehy’s grand jury has issued subpoenas – of course no mention of how many, for whom, for what, etc.
is this old news to firedogs ??
geez, by now Christy would have had a post of the possible whoms and whys and Empty would have had a timeline
another reason the Bush doctrine is a bad idea.
I never thought of it that way … what’s your take ?
Christy,
Does Krugman know what he’s getting into by appearing here? Did anyone give him advance warning or links to some of the better economics posts?
I have no idea, but I wouldn’t put a thing past these guys in terms of self-dealing.
Jane’s up
Bush: “It’s All Mah Daddy’s Fault”
I remember how difficult it was to talk to Americans after 9/11, about the downsides of Bush’s policies … all they could see was the idea of protecting themselves from another attack.
It’s quite the same right now with friends in India … lots of people calling to attack Pakistan.
what demi said. ((Petrocelli)))
I agree, I hope you don’t make it worse…..May God Bless and keep you…. forever….
Breaking: 250K jobs lost in Nov.
I don’t know what it was but Paulson certainly seemed to have something against Lehman. It was the only one of the 5 investment banks that he did nothing to keep from bankruptcy. The others got sold or were reconstituted. What gets me is that he seemed so fixated on Lehman that he didn’t bother to look at who held their debt. It seems like an obvious thing to check.
Chief Privacy (HaHa) Officer of the Homeland Security Department up on C-span 2
Wow! Tough one, seriously. I don’t know of any magic wand that can be counted on 100%.
I always liked the tongue-in-cheek yet serious thoughts voiced by my former grad. professor in ethology.
Something to the effect that, “Thank heaven humans are the most adaptable species on earth, so that children have a fairly decent chance of overcoming all the ‘mistakes’ we make as parents.”
He was a good parent not only to his own kids but to his students.
Our OWN kids grew up, “in spite of us,” to make us teary-eyed in awe at what wonderful, caring adults they are, and how much they are respected by their colleagues and bosses. Go figure…
Parenting, like many other things, is an imperfect art; but if we muddle through with good intentions… what else can we do? Lots of talking and lots of hugging. Let them grow and feel responsibility. Yeah.
Oh Phooey! Really? I was counting on that one. Just gotta learn not to telegraph our passes, perhaps.
Paulson didn’t personally like whats-his-name, Dick Fuld of Lehman, that’s why it happened. Don’t think for one minute that personal feelings weren’t involved. Life is fifth grade!
But if he doesn’t try….
I say, GO for it, Hugh! If nothing else, then they can’t duck the truth quite so easily without incurring self-inflicted owies.
Raising our kids is the most important thing we do in our lives. We cannot just throw money at it in the form of plastic shit from China or MP3s. It takes giving of ones self.
It would be so nice if children overcame their parents’ predjudices, unfortunately they most often perpetuate them…..
foothillsmike you are so right.
Words are only words.
perspective is a key element in any argument.
insist that all efforts will fail?
lo and behold!….
stubborn and persistence is good. love and attention is golden.
i never had much luck sitting in a corner holding a private pity-party, so i try to avoid doing that, mostly.
amen.
Wow, you are amazing! May God Bless you!
are you lecturing or reading from an inspirational calendar?
pardon if i’m off-base, but i think we could find vast areas of agreement if you’d back off just a tad.
i HAVE had my coffee today, and am wide awake, but still unsettled about the future, just like everyone else on this thread.
shall we work on ideas for solutions? together?
no. i’m not lecturing back at you. i just don’t like to be pinched as if i’ve done something horribly wrong. life’s too short…
Bless your heart, too.
this isn’t going well, is it…
it’s too early to start talking cupcakes and horsesense.
*retreats into corner and dons foil hat*
I asked God to Bless you, most sincerely, I can’t imagine what else you would want from me.
reader alert! please note #87 & #88 were filed at precisely the same time.
i THINK we don’t disagree, not that there’s anything wrong with that.
sorry sophiehunter. *extends hand in genuine friendship, not just words*
Genuine friendship is my goal, I wish nothing but truth and happiness for you….Love, Love, Love…..Namaste…..
Sounds terrific. Agreed, and same to you and yours.
The right wing talking heads credit Bush for keeping us unattacked since 2001. I choose to see it as a result of the connection between the Bush family and the Bin Ladens. The fact remains we haven’t been attacked. With a country as large as ours, they could have done something had they cared to.
The thing to remember is a terrorist attack is the product of an individual or a comparatively few individuals. It is not a national action like past wars. We cannot defeat terrorism by invading and conquering a nation-state. We can try to kill all that nation’s citizens, but that won’t solve the problem either. Like it or not, it’s turn the other cheek time. The US hasn’t been all that wonderful. It shouldn’t be difficult to understand why we are not universally loved, but we’re not that hated either. We are a nation were more is possible for the individual than in other nations. We should build on that.