Also see Juan Cole (Informed Comment), Cruickshank (Washingtonnote) and Patrick Cockburn (the Independent, UK).

Asia Times on Line has some good analyses rather than this pro Pakistan drivel from both Pakistani and Indian analysts.

It is not the Indian public that is clamouring for strikes against Pakistani training camps but the right wing BJP who are currently in opposition. This is an election year with six State elections coming up and the Federal election due by the end of 2009. The Indian public anger is focused on governments, State and Federal, responsible for coordinated intelligence and security infrasructure.

My definition of al Qaida above is broad and includes all kinds of groups that share the same goals and methods but may not be under the direct control of Bin Laden.

If you mean destabilize India, that seems highly unlikely in comparison to Pakistan.

India has a far more robust democracy than Pakistan does.

Remember that Pakistan has been ruled via miliary strongmen via coup for almost its entire existence with only sporadic episodes of democratically-elected civilian leadership.

India, on the other hand, has had functioning democratically-elected civilian leadership since its re-birth from British colonialism.

As many others have analysed it, the Mumbai Massacre was never a militarily significant attack on India.

It would however, ramp up India’s anti-Pakistan reactionary forces.

It would then put more paranoia pressure on the already fragile and reeling Pakistani civilian government.

This would in turn increase the likelihood that Pakistan’s military would again resort to an unpopular coup.

And thereby increasing popular resentment against those Pakistani elite (the military, security services, and the wealthy upper class), and increasing popular support for a “bottom-up” people’s revolt led by the jihadis.

My theory is that the general anger generated by disputed Kashmir was the target of the attack. This event alone wouldn’t start a war between the India and Pakistan. But on top of the history of Kashmir, not to mention the whole partitioning of India/Pakistan/Bangladesh. . . This was meant to inflame.

is there any reason to positively exclude any of the possibilities (and they are legion) – including the possibility of a black flag operation?

not saying that it’s likely, but nothing i’ve seen makes me ready to exclude anything at this point.

RAW is basically a Secret Service established to perform clandestine operations based on the Chanakyan principles of deceit and guile. It has successfully destabilised neighbouring countries, disintegrated independent states and backed the most notorious guerrilla organizations to achieve its ends. If it is compared to other intelligence agencies of the region, it emerges as an aggressive, cold-blooded and ruthless institution, engaged in the most macabre deeds.

And thse people were different. No one has commented that I have seen, but these people were clean shaven. Now I know they wanted not to stand out, but essentailly all Al Quaeda influenced (and by the way I think we have vastly overplayed the actual reach of Al Quaeda, and why should they discourage us?)players tend to be bearded, for religious reasons. They were different.

OT I have just watched on BBC Newsnight Lt Col (just retired ) Darrel Vandeveld, who gave up as a prosecutor in Gitmo, because he just couldn’t take the shame any more. Very moving, and made me want to see the guys who set this up (and we know who they were don’t we?) in jail for a long time, preferably in soiltary cells with loud music, refrigeration and few clothes.

[Mumbai-born Dawood Ibrahim] has been under the protection of Pakistan�s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) intelligence agency since June. He is being protected in Quetta, near the Waziristan tribal region. The CIA is fearful that if Ibrahim is deported to India, RAW and Russia�s Vladimir Putin will obtain the entire dossier on the CIA’s sponsorship of criminal activities and terrorist attacks…

The CIA has every reason to blame the Mumbai attacks on a coterie of “Islamist” groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al Qaeda, and a new group called Deccan Mujahedin. If the media takes a closer look at Ibrahim they will find links to Langley and that is something neither the CIA nor Pakistan or India wants to see happen lest other dirty laundry also comes to the forefront. Ibrahim’s joint casino interests with the CIA in Kathmandu apparently involves money laundering…

Ibrahim also knows a great deal about the CIA’s operations on the subcontinent, including …agency veterans of Kathmandu who dabbled in personal loans from Ibrahim to pay off gambling debts, personal favors for the CIA, highly sought after prostitutes, and drugs. Many of these veterans of Nepal are now senior analysts and operational personnel at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.