That’s the rumor anyway, says Nate Silver.

Polling puts Specter ahead by quite a bit in the polls, but that’s probably not going to be Matthews’ biggest problem.

With the Democrats just shy of 60 votes in the Senate needed to prevent a filibuster, Specter is in position to be a key vote in the passage of critical legislation.  He’ll be able to barter his cloture vote for, say, Employee Free Choice or Healthcare in exchange for the the support of key Democratic constituencies that Matthews would need to win in that state.

There were 830,000 union member in Pennsylvania in 2007.  It would be easier to take the working over that the Chamber is likely to give him than have close to a million people organizing against him, so my guess is Arlen Specter — who is notorious for for being "only there when you don’t need him" — will suddenly discover some heretofore unknown steel in his spine and hold on that vote.

Matthews, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to know what Employee Free Choice is — beyond his ability to spread GOP propaganda (see his YouTube with Howard Dean, above). 

Employee Free Choice is becoming the new gay — the issue that wingnuttia is whipping itself into a frenzy over.  My advice to Matthews, if he is indeed exploring a run, is to run hard to the left on this issue.

Matthews has an important forum, and Specter isn’t the only one who can deal. 


Related posts:

  1. Feinstein, Specter Compromises Pave the Way for Passage of Employee Free Choice Act
  2. 63% of Pennsylvanians Want Specter to Face Democratic Primary Challenger
  3. Specter Urges Dem Unity on Cloture; Reid: Thanks for Doing My Job
  4. Arlen “Scrapple” Specter Backs Up Pelosi: CIA Has a Bad Record When It Comes to Honesty
  5. Chris Matthews Misleads Viewers on Viability of Public Option