While Americans are enjoying their tryptophan comas, up in the Great White North, the Conservative government of Stephen Harper has presented the opposition parties with a choice: castration or being in charge during the worst recession since World War II.
The Conservatives have presented a budget which:
1) has no fiscal stimulus to help the economy;
2) gets rid of public financing for political parties, since Conservatives don’t need it and the other parties do; and,
3) which forbids public sector unions to strike for 3 years while they "reform", (read, get rid of) pay equity.
Harper figures this is a no lose bet for him. If the other parties bring him down, well, they get to be in charge during the upcoming recession, which will do nothing for their popularity. If they don’t bring him down, he institutionalizes the Conservative fund raising advantage and gets to break the public sector unions. Rich people and corporations love giving money to folks like Harper who keep cutting their taxes, gutting regulations and letting foreigners make them rich by buying out their firms then moving the jobs and headquarters to other countries.
Harper’s strength last election was primarily in two places: the prairies and non-urban southern Ontario. Oil is going to drop below 50 dollars soon, when it does the oil sands in Alberta are going to become unprofitable and the good times in Harper’s western base will end. Likewise, southern Ontario has been taking it on the chin for sometime, and no matter what happens to Detroit, that’s not going to end. While Alberta will vote Conservative no matter how bad things get, the rest of the prairies are not nearly so dedicated, and southern Ontario might well remember that the Liberal party was much better for them than the Conservatives, who have refused to do anything meaningful to help Canadian manufacturing.
If the Liberals and NDP decide to do this, then, they have to be in it for the long term—they need to expect to govern for at least four years. An election in the middle of the recession will doom then, they have to put in place policies to get through the recession and out the other side, or they will be slaughtered.
If they are willing to work together, are willing to commit to stick this out for four years, then they should grasp the nettle and defeat the Tories. If they aren’t, they should bite down on the bitterness and let Harper’s awful economic policies doom him. Sure, they won’t have a lot of money going into the next election, but if they have any brains at all, that election will be in about a year, at the bottom of the recession and odds are Harper won’t be able to be reelected dog catcher at that point.
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Yup, call Harper’s bluff and double down.
Ian, I was hoping you would post something. Thanks.
There’s no way a new Liberal leader won’t pull the plug on this as soon as he can. I think Layton and Dion will go see the GG on Sunday and put forward their case. We will get new government Monday, and we will go to the polls as soon as the Liberals have enough cash to leave the coalition behind.
If they do that, they’ll lose.
Oh. I just noticed you forgot to mention Obama envy.
We elected Harper and the US got Obama. We don’t want Harper now that he is swinging hard right, he’s leaving the auto sector to rust away, and he’s applying Calgary School economics to the onslaught of a new depression.
There’s a good post up at Kos on this interesting turn of events.
I love a good parliamentary dustup!
You are right.
But can you imagine Rae or Ignatieff not wanting to take the car out for a spin?
So this is how smart evil Conservatives act. I can remember Reagen well but after that things get fuzzy I can’t honestly recall a smart conservative.
Canada could try and FDR/Keynesian stimulus package maybe build some high speed trains connect the provinces together.
High speed freight to haul raw materials quickly might be more popular with Conservatives.
Wind farms built along the length of the track could power it.
I wonder if anyone has built a high speed freight yet?
Canada.
That’s the country south of Detroit, right?
ian, a very interesting read, I do believe if the liberals took out full page adds with this post they have a great chance of doing whatever they need to do to get their economy up to speed with the liberal programs that will do it
otherwise they are doomed to a robber baron economy
It would seem that the stupid, mendacious, and rapacious is contagious. I suggest that we impose a political and economic quarantine around North America until it goes away.
I don’t trust Harper as far as I could throw him. I think he has a game plan here if he wants voters to go back to the polls and here’s what I think it is:
The budget is rejected and Harper is forced to call an early election. He argues that a strong government is needed for Canada to get through these tough economic times and the only way a strong government can be achieved is for a government to have a parliamentary majority. He portrays the opposition parties as political opportunists who are playing politics ahead of the economy in these serious times. He knows that Dion has already proven to be a weak and ineffectual leader and will provide no serious opposition. If Harper’s gamble pays off, he wins majority government perhaps in a landslide. If not, well then the Liberals/NDP can inherit the bad economic times ahead and the Conservatives will be on the rebound a few years later
Hey, something similar worked for Diefenbaker in the 1950s. Harper probably figures he can do the same
I think the Gov. General is more likely to allow the oposition to form a coalition Gov’t, rather than take the country through another election.
I also heard that the NDP might agree to Ralph Goodale being the PM in that coalition Gov’t.
I give that idea Two Enthusiastic Thumbs Up™
Ian,
I sent your post to a Canadian friend of mine, and this was his response:
Oh, well…
What do Canadians eat on their equivalent of Thanksgiving? Moose?
Or maybe Coot?
Bob in HI
If another group of parties can run the government, there’s no election. Harper doesn’t get to decide that.
I just listened to his speech in the House. He’s ugly, derisive and sneering. Scared. His reach has exceeded his grasp.
The Governor General is ready to return from a trip to the EU.
Americans need a parliamentary democracy. If they had it, they could have gotten rid of Bush in the 2006 elections.
My heart beats quickly.
Just because Harper has suggested these particular “unhelpful” policies, is there any reason that Parliment has to pass them? Can’t they introduce and pass their own legislation, or does the Parlimentary system work differently?
My Canadian friend reminds me that in Canada, the Federal government is weak, and the Provincial governments are relatively much stronger. Our balance is different, due to our Civil War, and due to the “Stand in the Schoolhouse Door” when George Wallace was confronted by the Federalized Alabama National Guard in 1963, when Federal authority trumped State authority.
Furthermore, the Federal unions in Canada are much stronger than their counterparts here in the U.S.
In Canada, as a result of the Provincial Rights struggle by Quebec, the reverse happened, and Provincial power was vindicated.
Bob in HI
So, do we have to fly the Canadian Flag to be patronizing. It could help.
We US citizens have enough reasons to feel bad, but, oh no, we have to take it from you too?
Sorry, but, I’m not a butt kisser, Ian.
Like some of your points, but the context gets in my way.
How nice for you not to be a US citizen.
Is it nice, and if so, why aren’t you blogging with your fabulous citizens up there in the the north? Maybe you are, but do you have to make it so obvious about your contempt for us?
I didn’t mean to stop the thread, I just don’t appreciate the underlying contempt.
I guess others don’t mind being talked to that way.
And, people here wonder why some people flock to conservative churches. They yearn to be preached at.
It’s not just the right wing that enjoys that.
You’re reading in contempt that’s not there in the text, the only statement that could be read as contemptuous is the tryptophan coma bit, and comments to that effect have been made by plenty of Americans about their Thanksgiving.
Bottom line: if you don’t like my writing, don’t read it. I’m sure there are plenty of people out there who will speak to you in the soothing mellifluous tones you apparently require in order to keep your nationalist superego intact.
It’s a budget bill, which makes it a “vote of confidence”. If the government loses a vote of confidence, the government falls. At that point either there is a new election or other parties have to create their own government.
Votes of confidence are ways of pushing issues – either internally or externally. Harper didn’t think the opposition would be willing to topple his government so soon after an election. But even in a majority they can be used to whip your own people. When Chretien had more or less lost control of his own caucus he used to shove things through by making them votes of no confidence “sure, you back benchers hate me, but do you want an election with me leading the party?”
demi, I’m not reading the contempt here. It’s a post pretty much exclusively about Canadian politics. It’s, um, not all about us.
Or I could just be missing it – these Canadians can be infuriatingly subtle.
Dont they just work a 3rd party to split the vote?
I also think that Americans need to be reminded that the Prime Minister is not the equivalent of a president. He sits in the House. His party votes with him 99% of the time. All votes are whipped unless specifically excepted.
So if the other 3 parties want to try to change the budget, they can. But passing it will bring down the government.
It’s pretty dfferent.
Ian, can the other parties not on their own move a bill which is nothing but a statement of no confidence?
Like, “It is resolved that the current government has lost the confidence of this House.”
The point being that they wouldn’t have to wait for Harper to quit the game of keep-away he’s now playing; instead they’re waiting for one of the “open days” when they can propose their own bills?
I can see how another week might cause this Liberal-NDP coalition to fall apart.
AFAIK, there have been Liberal minority governments supported by the NDP, but never a true coalition government, in the sense that the cabinet portfolios are apportioned between parties.
What this means is that the NDP has, strictly speaking, never been in government, always in opposition.
Now, the NDP starts every campaign saying that its goal is to form the government on its own. Typically at some middling point in the election they come clean and say they’re trying to maximize their influence, or take the balance of power.
It’s something of a chicken-and-egg problem for the NDP. They’re smaller than the other parties, so people don’t see them as a potentially a governing party. But as long as people view them that way, there’s a ceiling they can’t break through.
It seems to me it’s the Liberals who benefit most from this – if nobody thinks the NDP can win more seats than the Liberals, the Liberals can argue to NDP supporters to vote Liberal, that an NDP vote splits the left. Of course, if NDP supporters do that, they ensure the NDP will remain smaller than the Liberals.
This entire dynamic changes if people begin to see the NDP as capable of government. Taking part in a coalition government – having actual cabinet ministers with portfolions – might begin to change that perception.
It’s a line the Liberals have never been willing to, or never had to, cross before. Including the NDP in government might mean giving up this significant structural advantage they have over the NDP.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals thought better of it, and decided to just not open up that can of worms.
I sure hope you’re wrong. We need this government to disappear.
The Globe has posted an editorial tonight slamming Harper. Even Don Martin in the National Post has condemene dHarper for utter arrogance.
The Bloc Quebecois will join in a minority government.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200…..cC2uSjbA8F
Perhaps Harper can head to Hollywood and take up where little Ronny Reagan left off. “Little Ronny Reagan, I’m surprised he went so far” Bettie Davis
Her Excellency Michaëlle Jean Governor General of Canada.
Jean is married to documentary film-maker Jean-Daniel Lafond. They have a daughter, Marie-Éden, adopted from Haiti.
As Lafond was born in France and Marie-Éden was born in Haiti, the entire vice-regal family is of non-Canadian and non-Commonwealth birth, although all were born in, and now live in, countries that belong to La Francophonie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micha%C3%ABlle_Jean
A new government will be formed next week
Demi doesn’t like conservatives this is a Karl worthy move.
Ian does blog “up here.” Click on my name, and you’ll find him.
Gee, Demi — the tryptophan coma was the only joke Ian made in this post, and I’m sure it was meant affectionately.
I spent all day yesterday too giddy about this. If the Liberals and NDP just stand fast, we can do it, but Harper is playing procedural games and will probably be able to delay any non-confidence motion for a week. Write to your MPs, everyone (as long as they’re not Tories), and Dippers, give Jack an earful.
You can tell I’m much more sanguine about a coalition than Ian is. I think it will work. I have very happy memories of Liberal minorities propped up by my team, and I think this will work. Forgive me, Ian, but we need hope, and yesterday was the most fun I’ve had watching Canadian politics in years.
Godspeed to the GG.
I wrote to Jack immediately upon hearing the news. Then my own MP.
I have often urged Bloc MPs I have met to run outside of PQ so that they could form a government. They pretty smart and progressive. They laugh at me. Maybe this time?
Oh, for sure, Alison. I would vote for the Bloc if they’d just run in Ontario. *grin*
We probably scare them. Crazy anglos who support sovereigntists. Hey — that sounds like a good idea for a new party. We can never have enough parties, eh?