I would point out that it must be approved by the green zone parliament and that the Sunni blocs are unlikely to agree. Indeed there are reprorts of them on the radio rushing to denounce it. Also the References (what you would call the Ayatollahs and the Grand Ayatollahs) are by no means clearly in favour and have in the case of the Sayyid Al-Sistani said it must pass by consensus of the community.
I am sure there is a great deal we can learn from his comments and perspective. Meanwhile, here’s a bit more on the latest news for background:
Actually, there were two documents approved. Maliki’s spokesman Ali Dabbagh described them as follows:
“The first Iraqi-U.S. agreement is about U.S. forces’ withdrawal from Iraq, and organizing those forces’ activities during their temporary presence in Iraq,” he added.
“The second agreement frames the principles of cooperation between the two countries in the fields of politics, diplomacy, culture, health, environment, economy, and power, in addition to information and communication technology and implementing law and judiciary,” he explained.
The second governs such areas as oil contracts – and with the actual text of both still unpublished, it’s hard to analyse what is really going on here. It does look like a ploy to add a pretence of “mutual agreement” on control of Iraqi resources separate from ending the actual military occupation.
Reactions in Iraq were immediate:
The Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) said on Sunday that the Iraqi government has approved a deal of “submission” to the U.S. administration, terming the agreement as one that would entrench a “despicable occupation."
And
Lawmaker Maysoon al-Damalojy of the Iraqi list’s secular parliamentary bloc on Sunday said that the Iraqi-U.S. security pact is “incomplete,” because it preserves neither Iraqi funds in foreign banks nor Iraq’s security… The United Nations (UN) currently preserves Iraq’s funds in foreign banks, but this issue is not listed in the pact,” she said…”U.S. commitment in the pact to preserve Iraq’s security and border has been brittle.”
And
The government’s approval on the security pact between Iraq and the United States is “meaningless”, according to a spokesman for Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s bloc said.
On Friday, Moqtada Al-Sadr
threatened to call his Mahdi Army militia back into action against U.S. forces if the agreement, which would replace a U.N. mandate that expires Dec. 31, took effect. He said American forces should leave and that any agreement permitting them to stay longer infringes on Iraqi sovereignty.
Support for any agreement with the US has further undermined by the renewed bombings of markets and other civilian locations recently. While Gen Odierno threatened Iraqis with worsening violence if the SOFA was not approved, Iraqis have a very diferent interpretation of recent events – a view supported by the recent visit of “Salvador Option” Negroponte to Iraq as reported by Bernard at Moon of Alabama.
Anwar Ali, an Iraqi reporter for the New York Times describes the feeling well:
Some people are saying that the Americans are making the bombings to make Iraqis believe that it is very important for them to stay in Iraq, that they are still needed. The Americans say that when they withdraw from Iraq violence will increase. Is that a threat? You can read it as a threat, or you can read it as an expectation. Some Iraqis take it as a threat.
Some people are asking: “Are the Americans punishing us with bombings because Iraq has refused to sign the SOFA?” [Status of Forces Agreement]
Here that is a reality, people think it. I can see it in people’s eyes when they say it to me. Real belief in what they are saying.
Other people say that all the latest explosions are because of the provincial elections as the different political parties are conflicting with each other to win the elections. One woman, Umm Haider, said: “The victims are always the innocent poor civilians.”
Youtube of a former Marine speaking while watching the anti-SOFA demonstrations in Iraq.
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Good evening everyone. I am so honored to have Mohammed Ibn Laith join us tonight in the discussion.
With a special thanks to the Gorillas Guides team for making this conversation possible, I look forward to what we may learn.
Mohammed, this is Mike (the Episcopal priest) … I’m on as long as this internet connection will allow. Peace and blessings to you. I am interested whether you think the timetable for withdrawl in the SOFA is the best that can be hoped for and whether it will be approved by all necessary bodies in Irak.
Welcome Rev Kinman – and thank you for joining us while in transit.
How does the general population in Iraq view the SOFA?
Hi Mohammed, can you shed a little light on what the goal of opposing the SOFA is? The text now stipulates a full US withdrawal by Dec 31, 2011. Is the Sadrist dispute simply over the length of time that withdrawal will take? Or is there something else? Thanks very much for talking with us, and to Siun for arranging this.
Peace to you Christina my sister in humanity and to you also Michael my brother in humanity.
There is no reason that I can see for the invaders’ troops to stay here at all – neither they nor any foreigner here as part of the invasion is welcome except by collaborators who fear what will happen to them when the invaders leave.
Leave today.
Mohammed will be commenting but it takes a bit of time due to the arrangements necessary to connect from Iraq – and since he is translating his comments into English himself for us.
I should add that both Abu Dubhaltach and Dr. Jameel are here also.
Mohammed, this is Terry (the nobody American!). I am wondering what is the near term plan for US forces. Will they leave the cities soon and be stationed on the bases we had built? Thank you.
It looks to an interested outsider (me) like SOFA is DOA. Parliament won’t approve it, will they? What I am interested in is why Maliki got behind it. He would seem to have a vested interest in NOT appearing to be a US puppet. Anyone know the backstory? (I know, hard to know that when you don’t even know what the “agreement” sez.)
The whole Iraqi “government” has been installed and maintained at the point of a gun held by Bush and his gangster regime. This so-called government has no standing under International Law, since it was installed under an illegal criminal occupation. This puppet government will collapse as so as the US withdraws its military forces from Iraq. Then we will have actual real Iraqis running Iraq: what a concept…
Welcome Mohammed Ibn Laith,
Realistically, what will happen after December 31 if there is no Status of Forces Agreement in place? The obvious answer is that the U.S. should immediately begin withdrawal but can we believe that they would do so?
I understand and agree with what you say. But do you see the SOFA as a step in the right direction? As a further solidification of a long-term American presence? Both? Something else?
Peace to you Mohammed, my brother in humanity.
Could you tell us a bit about how people in Iraq are reacting to the Cabinet’s action?
Peace to you – I do not know. Look at the maps of those bases. They are all in inhabited areas. What I think will be evacuated are smaller installations such as FOBs.
May I conclude from what you say that, in response to my 10, your answer would be that Maliki got behind the SOFA, despite making him appear even more of a US puppet, because he’ll be gone as soon as US troops leave?
And, what does “gone” mean? Will he be assassinated, or just exiled?
No I see it as an attempt to rescue some presence in Irak.
What affect has the election of Obama had on these issues? Also, are there any Americans in contact with Moqtada Al-Sadr’s people?
I think he means Maliki “fears” what will happen to him once the US troops leave.
Greetings Mohammed and team guides!
I have to wonder if this could this be part of a strategic move to keep the UN from renewing, with just enough rope to make it look like there is SOFA agreement in the final steps?
I do not know. It would depend on if they have the logistical capacity to survive a massively increased campaign against them. I am not certain that very sharply increased casualties would be welcome to your new government.
Welcome Mohammed Ibn Laith,
Peace and blessings to you, sir.
Siun, forgive me, but I do not know Abu Dubhaltach and Dr. Jameel.
In the absence of a durable political settlment among Sunni, Shia, and Kurd and with the 16 month withdrawal envisioned by President Elect Obama, what do you see happening in your country, especially in terms of its unresolved civil war?
no, sir. they would not be welcome. we have given enough.
LooHoo – Abu Dubhaltach is Dubhaltach’s father or markfromireland. Dr Jameel is a member of the Guides team.
And both are particularly gracious for helping us to make this conversation possible tonight.
So far as I can see none.
Yes.
No you have not. You have not even begun to repay the debt of retribution you owe.
I find myself consistently wondering why we want a SOFA – I mean we as “liberals opposed to the occupation” since it provides legal cover for an illegal occupation?
Welcome, Mohammed. So good to have you here today. You are often in my thoughts.
Part of the problem is that many of the people here who wish us out of Irak and believe we never should have invaded feel have been convinced (rightly or wrongly) that the situation on the ground is so bad that our withdrawl would lead to even more violence, death and destruction. So you have people who disagree with what we have done/are doing … and yet feel a strong sense of responsibility in staying BECAUSE we have done so much damage already but fear it could be compounded by us leaving … not to mention a sense of responsibility to try to stay and fix some of what we have done. It makes the argument for total and immediate withdrawl very difficult when well-meaning people who are opposed to the invasion can believe staying is still the virtuous thing.
yes, sir. i understand. what is it you wish?
The Kurds are likely to be stamped on hard with the help of Turkey, Syria, Iran.
I am not of the opinion that civil war will break out following the departure of the invader. The violence is in reaction to their presence. Remove the primary cancer from the body politic and dealing with the secondary issues becomes easier.
By “we” do you mean the Democrats?
I don’t want it.. leave yesterday! is my motto…)
my plane is boarding. I must go. Blessings to you all. Mike+
But Siun, if we can use the SOFA as cover for getting out of Iraq, why is that so bad? You’re simply not going to get an agreement that says “we leave tomorrow.” This strikes me as one of the best realistic achievements for liberals.
Peace to you – I am glad on behalf of my sister and myself to thank you personally for the comfort you offered when Ali was killed.
May God guide and guard you and your family.
Thank you.
Mohammed, I would agree that the U.S. owes Iraq reparations for the destruction we have inflicted upon your country. What would you consider a fair settlement of our debt to you?
“We” liberals don’t want no damn SOFA. But we need to know how the parties are thinking about it.
One of the more amazing things is that the Iraqi parliament gets to vote on it (is that still true) but not the US congress. Tells you a lot about what is & isn’t going on, namely the Ds collaboration with W.
Goodness Gracious, Quite the assemblage on this thread… Siun, GG, Jane, Spencer… All the heavy hitters on Iraq! ;-)
Leave. You know so well as I do that your country has always used its “help” as a weapon. When I consider your record I am not foolish enough to extend even an iota of trust to any American government. They are too entwined with what, because I cannot think of a better term, I will call your “ruling class”
Mohammed, do you know how difficult it is to talk to people in your area?
Spencer, to me the question is why do we want an agreement which is being forced on Iraq and is designed to provide a formal cover for our occupation even if only for a few more years. The negotiators on Iraq’s side are puppets we set in power, the people of Iraq have consistently opposed giving up sovereignty and said they want us out – not want us to stay a bit longer and meddle further or gain interests in control of oil, etc.
Mohammed, an Iraqi, says leave now – and has been saying so since we arrived. We on the left should learn to listen to the voices of the people whose lives our country’s actions impact and fight on their behalf for a change.
I need to mention to Siun and the Iraqis who have gratiously joined us, that you have, through these Sunday evening posts, convinced at least one American, me, that US troops should leave immediately. As much as I might have tried to put myself in Iraqi shoes, I still would have thought about post-US troops as a period of increased instability, meaning perhaps the withdrawal should be gradual. But you have made me see that it is not US decision to make, but yours, and your wishes are completely obvious.
However, convincing me is a long way from getting what you want.
I suppose it’s insane to suggest no one really knows what will happen if we stay or if we go.
Mohammed, I have two questions if you have time:
1- can you tell us a bit about the situation of the Christians around Mosul? I know you have been writing a great deal about this situation and it deserves more attention here.
2- US media is reporting that Al Sadr said he would mobilize his fighters if the SOFA is approved. Can you provide us with a more accurate sense of what your colleagues are saying?
I would add one caveat, Siun… The Kurds truly want us there, at least in the KRG to stymie the Turks, Iran and Maliki…
it is not even slightly difficult to speak to people in my area what are you trying to ask?
correct. that’s what keeps the us there. NOW we need to do the RIGHT thing after we screwed up the country. don’t make sense to me but i don’t control the military.
Under Clinton.. we did not have the mega bases we do now.. yet our air sanctions stance killed over a million Iraqi’s.
It’s very very difficult to imagine us maintaining a huge presence and our mega bases over the next few years without doing equal or more harm to Iraqi citizens as we did under Clinton.
So you would distrust a promise from the U.S. of any financial settlement? I’m not saying you don’t have cause. But if we could construct an arrangement where we paid money to the Iraqi treasury or to Iraqi companies — and not to U.S. contractors — would that be welcome?
@Siun, it’s not that I disagree with your analysis of the problem. It’s that an agreement signed by the Iraqi government, whatever you think of it, has tremendous political utility for a domestic U.S. audience to facilitate what could be a tremendously acrimonious policy. I fear a 30-year backlash politics, as occurred after Vietnam. The SOFA is not without its value in this regard. And while it says that all U.S. troops have to leave by 12/31/2011, it doesn’t say that they can’t leave before then. It’s a floor, not a ceiling, so to speak.
That said, I have to leave this conversation to meet some friends for dinner, which is another reminder of the enormous privilege we enjoy and that we have deprived our Iraqi brothers and sisters. Mohammed, I thank you for speaking with us and would like to extend my solidarity to the Iraqi people.
have you noticed an attempt from this gov’t to monitor your communications or activities? sorry if that is too direct for you.
How does it play out once the Americans leave? Does Maliki stay in power? What is the role of the Sadrists? One thing I have noticed is that “government” forces are very reliant on US stiffening in real fights. Would things be worked out through the political process, or is it likely that things would be solved through the barrel of the gun?
Spare me, please, the nonsense that America is even a little interested in doing the “right thing” in any country that has a resource you covet.
That you can view with such equanimity the Kurds getting stomped on says a lot. Aren’t Kurds Iraqis too? And if Turkey, Syria, and Iran are stomping on them, doesn’t that make them invaders too? Or is it some invaders but not others? Or some victims but not others? And again in the absence of a political settlement, what evidence besides your opinion do you have that the civil war will not re-ignite?
you must be joking. a financial settlement? spencer what is the matter with you?
the gov’t? no, sir. the gov’t doesn’t care. i agree with you.
Your Q is fair, but it’s not the US battle. From what I know Iraq does not have a history of minority (or majority, considering the position of the Shia under Saddam Hussein) rights (Iraqi guests correct me if I’m wrong), but that is none of the US business.
exactly, none of our business.period.
That you can twist my words with such ease says rather more about you than it does about me. You asked what was likely to happen in my view. Nowhere did I express my opinion on the likely fate of the Kurds.
As to the question of civil war which of the three civil wars that you Americans have attempted to inflame here are you asking me about?
I would agree it isn’t our problem but it will be the Iraqis’.
Mohammed, please understand that Bush/Cheney/Exxon et.al. do not speak for all of us. Our country has been demonized by these people too, though certainly not in any comparable way as to yours.
I’m 56 years old, and my dream is to one day be able to visit Irak.
Mohammed, I have a couple of questions about the upcoming provincial elections…
1) Will the Kurds lose ground in Ninevah(Mosul) and Diyala amongst other bordering provs around the KRG…?
2) Will either of Maliki’s Dawa party and/or al-Hakim’s ISCI gain seats or lose seats…?
that is what this guy is saying. butt out. nothing more than that. simple.
I have a more basic Q. IIRC, regional elections are scheduled for January 31. Will they actually take place?
Yes, but what will be Iraq’s and your reaction to seeing your fellow citizens being stomped on by foreign powers. I thought that was what you didn’t like about our presence.
As for your other point, you just went from doubting there would be a civil war to having three. That shows I am not the only one with a facility for language.
They’re going to happen the only question is when specifically, eCAHN!
I have moved to a noninterventionist position on US military. Now I get attacked from the left about humanitarian stuff. My response is: when did U.S. military intervention ever make a situation better? The counterfactual is: if we only did something in Rwanda (or allowed UN to do something) it would have saved a million lives. Color me unconvinced, but if you have evidence to the contrary, let me know.
They are supposed to have been happening for a couple of years now. Perhaps I am mistaken but I thought that in places like Diyala the big contest was between the Sunnis and the Shia. It was a mixed province and when the Sunnis sat out the first elections, the Shia took over the provincial government and have been trying to hold on to it ever since.
Mohammed Ibn Laith – thank you for your time and answering our questions. how do you think the recent elections here have affected (if at all) the Iraqi Cabinet’s SOFA agreement?
Peace to you Mohammed, mfi, Dr. Jameel. I’m so glad you came today.
Thank you for this post, Siun. I note two particularly troubling things you’ve brought up: first, the perception, at least, if not the fact, that some Irakis hold that Americans are setting off bombs in markets and other civilian locations. The other, is the 2nd SOFA agreement of which so little is known, but which appear to entail US conniving to control Iraki resources.
These are two areas that–I think–require OUR attention and energy.
In fairness, you seem a bit flippant here with regard to the Kurds. Perhaps that was not your intent.
Mohammed, from #54
have you noticed an attempt from this gov’t to monitor your communications or activities? sorry if that is too direct for you.
Mohammed, thank-you so much for taking the time to talk to everyone here tonight. Peace to you and yours.
no he is just direct.
The situation of the Christians in Mosul is following that first of the Yazhidi, and next of the Turkmen.
In each case they have had the misfortune to live in what are called “disputed” areas and have been “ethnically cleansed” by Peshmerga.
Ethnic Cleansing is a cold clinical term for what is in fact concerted terrorism against an entire community. It is a form of mini genocide.
In Mosul – Peshmerga have carried out systematic raids in the Christian quarters especially in al-Sakr and al-Bakr depriving them of weapons to defend themselves. This campaign started on September 15th and continued until middle of October.
ONLY Christians were raided by soldiers of the GZG army second brigade.
There were and remain many attacks. Both of our (Guides’) coordinators in Mosul are Christians and both have fled for example. Those who attempt to return are killed.
Asayesh agents have been taking at gunpoint the ration and identity cards of people who have fled to plain of Ninawa and told them they will only get their cards back if they undertake to stay at the place they have fled to.
This is starting in Kirkuk also.
I don’t think we are disagreeing. I am for getting out of Iraq yesterday. But I would still like to understand what will happen there when we leave.
Humanitarian interventions need to follow the Powell Doctrine too. There should be a clear mission and a clear exit strategy. The problem as in Iraq is that without a political settlement the clear exit strategy doesn’t happen. We tend to stay and stay and stay.
The Kurds/Peshmerga moved in at our insistence to try and fend off the Sunni/AQ-I violence in Diyala and Mosul and haven’t left… Along with the fact they’re now the fomenters of violence and are resisting Maliki’s pleas to return to their borders…
ot – but that would not have required an intervention in rwanda, but rather a diplomatic one with our ally mitterrand.
hugh, we are the problem there. there is nothing for us to understand. that is the problem.
Thank you for this detailed response about this dreadful situation.
The Peshmerga are the Kurdish forces who have been most closely aligned of all in Iraq to the US I believe? And I gather there has been no effort by US forces to halt the ethnic cleansing?
mohammed, i just arrived, and my computer is slow to respond today.
my love and peace i pass on to you and fatima.
my artist’s and poet’s peace to you and fatima.
please, use your art, your poetry, it can be a weapon, too.
meanwhile, we won’t let it rest.
There are always things to understand whether we are involved in the situation or not. We aren’t in Zimbabwe. Is there nothing to understand there?
Our troops should leave and our bases closed down!
We don’t belong there, we don’t know what were doing we should just leave!
We’re not wanted there anyway!
I think there is always more we can add to our understanding. I’ve not heard the input from an actual Iraqi citizen that wasn’t filtered since Riverbend and her family fled for Syria.
Seems like those Kurds would become engaged with other factions once the US is out. As their numbers are smaller in these regions, they would be eventually overwhelmed. Presumably Maliki would flee to into exile a wealthy man or be ousted and dispatched in short order.
quite right. ask away.
what is the lesson of basra?
Welcome Mohammed,
My question is; will the Sadr trend reform alliances with the Maliki government if the SOFA fails to pass the legislature? And following if the U.S. does make a more immediate departure upon failure of SOFA – and civil war threatens to re-emerge as a result, would the Sadr trend support or distance itself from the Maliki regime against a resurgence of the Sunni insurgency?
I posted a diary at oxdown where the Brig. General (Thomas) recognizes the growing hostilities, but, fails to point the blame squarely on the Peshmerga/Asayesh… He and the Kurds keep using the AQ-I and Special Groups excuse…!
that would be a start. yes.
OK. Thanks for the clarification.
May I suggest that if you want to know what will happen when US troops leave, you ask in a more neutral, less judgemental way? (Not that that always works for me. I have been attacked here a couple of times for asking a simple Q. But it’s worth a try.)
On the substance of the issue, it’s very difficult to convince Americans that we, with all our (former?) resources, can’t be a force for good.
May I with very considerably less than zero respect for your openess to discussion suggest that you read again what I have written. Nobody is going to allow the Kurds independence. They are not going to be allowed independence because if you look at any map you will see that nobody is going to allow a hostile power to control the headwaters of every major river in the region.
The Turks and the Iranians already work together against Kurdish separatists.
I asked you which of the three civil wars that your country is busy trying to inflame in mine you were talking about. I note that you didn’t trouble to reply.
The Kurds are playing a dangerous game. In fact, it looks like all the different factions are. The question in terms of US policy and regional stability is how many of them are going to blow up.
of couse, understand ALL you want without killing them. geez, take a trip there. talk to iragis, read. don’t invade, imo.
I don’t think it’s possible to “win over” the Iraqis ,they don’t want our help as long as were there it’s only gonna fuel the fire!!
i so think of her, how is she now?
oh, what i wish.
No none. They confine themselves to repeating the usual lie that it is IAI. Abu Dubhaltach would be the better person to ask as he is forced to have regular dealings with Americans when trying to get refugees out or relief in.
you and me only believe it. the rest say we have interests/obligations, etc. enough.
Thank you. Perhaps some time we can have him join us specifically to discuss the treatment of the Christians.
and mohammed–i see you have a lot of questions placed in front of you–you don’t have to answer mine.
I never said they were. I was asking what you as an Iraqi were going to do to defend your fellow citizens the Kurds against attacks by foreign powers. That seems very straightforward to me.
As to your other point, there was in West Africa a literary and social movement called negritude. It was anti-colonialist but it had this rather curious idea that all that was needed was for the colonial powers to leave and then everything would be OK. What some of them wrote about after independence (before most of them had to flee) was that the new governments were as unfree and and anti-democratic as those they replaced, something for you to keep in mind down the road.
Of course, it is possible hypothetically, especially when the US leaves hypothetically, that Turkey could then make a big land grab in the north. You don’t want them controlling the headwaters either. Is there a way to prevent the incursion of the Turks after the Turks have wiped out the Peshmerga?
mohammed, from #54
Have you noticed an attempt from this gov’t to monitor your communications or activities?
Yes – this is called politics :-)
People in America persistently forget that the so-called “Sunni” resistance and we fought together. You may have forgotten that – we have not. Local relations are, as I can testify, excellent. And our leadership has close contact with and, again warm relations, with the Muslim Scholars Association.
Only if you are prepared for very blunt speaking.
Smiling – but of course!
The Turks have enough problems with their own Kurdish minority. They do not want to have more. What they, the Iranians, and the Syrians would like is for the Iraqi Kurds to stop giving sanctuary to Kurdish separatist factions in Northern Iraq.
dmac,
I have no idea at all how Riverbend is doing, or even if she is still alive. I recall rumors that perhaps she had made it to the UK, but unconfirmed. I hope some day that we will know her fate.
This isn’t quite true, and I think a more accurate telling might explain some of the misunderstandings and talking past one another in this thread.
The governing coalition in Iraq is the result of national elections which the U.S. government initially resisted (before yielding in the face of demands by Grand Ayatollah Sistani & co.) and in which the American-favored candidate (Allawi) lost overwhelmingly. Indeed, Maliki himself became prime minister with the support of as-Sadr and despite pressure from the U.S.
Now, it is true that later, Maliki pushed the Sadrists out of the coalition, and used U.S. military power to wrest away control of Sadrist/Madhi Army strongholds. But it’s also true that Maliki didn’t sign the initial SOFA draft put before him a year ago and instead oversaw a steady haggling effort that forced significant U.S. concessions, leading to the current draft and its hard deadline for American withdrawal.
The rather simple explanation is that Maliki is neither a genuine Iraqi nationalist nor a U.S. puppet, but rather someone seeking to become a strongman in his own right and is playing various factions against one another to achieve that end. This is politically awkward for the Sadrists to admit (they’d rather position themselves as opposing the occupation than the elected Iraqi government) — and so they are forced to insist that a SOFA with a hard withdrawal deadline is in fact a puppet’s capitulation, that Obama is every bit the imperialist Bush/Cheney were, etc.
What it comes down to, though, is that since Maliki is using the remaining U.S. presence to wear down the Sadrists’ ability to oppose him, even an orderly, gradual withdrawal is unsatisfactory to the Sadrists.
You are failing to see my point. I would be the last person to deny that the Kurds have, as they themselves put it, “only the mountains for friends”.
The Iraki kurds have overreached. They have considerable self-government but they allowed their separatism to blind them to the effect on Turkey, Iran, Syria, of allowing guerillas to attack into those countries.
Stop and think – Iran and Turkey together. Driving that pair together should have been near impossible. No country is going to all a grab of water resources by any other country.
If the Iraki Kurds wish to survive as an autonomous region they will scale back their demands. If they do not then they will be attacked by everyone – including us.
Thank you Mohammad,
Is the Sadr trend satisfied with the present condition of Sadr City, and the promise of Maliki to substitute the good humanitarian work done there historically by the Sadr trend?
Nicely nuanced comment, but …
At the end of the day, the US military is the power in Iraq, and de facto doesn’t that make Maliki a US puppet, despite how he came to power, what his goals are, and whatever else is going on in Iraq?
I’m not wedded to my conclusion above, rather looking for reasons why it is not fair to summarize the situation that way.
And what are the avenues open to the Kurds to get them to back off their overreach before they are attacked?
Thanks for the info. Sounds like a valid scenario. There is oil up there, though. Anything can happen. A power vaccum created by a US withdrawal could obviously play out in a few different ways. IMHO, I don’t see the US abandoning the permanent bases. That means that the occupation will continue in some capacity. Out of curiosity, do you see Obama abandoning the bases?
I came in late after learning of the discussion here. To clarify, I never condoned the illegal invasion of Iraq, or the killing of a single person there…not even Saddam. Just eager to read the input here, with no specific questions in mind.
Under no circumstances whatsoever will Mohammed or any other team member give information like that.
Under no circumstances whatsoever will Mohammed or any other team member give information that identifies where they or family members live.
We, the Gorilla’s Guides team, have “lost” – for you which you can read “had killed”, often under horrific circumstances, more than 50 members and family. That you can even think of asking such a franky, fucking stupid, question is a testament to the complete lack of awarenesss amongst Americans, of the bloodsoaked hellhole created in Irak by your government
Thank you I was unsure how to reply to the person’s questions about communications while remaining polite.
Because he’s also the one putting the squeeze on the U.S. to leave. Maliki et al. are basically trying to get away with using the Americans as subcontractors — we do the dirty work of defeating their enemies, then they say “thanks” and send us on our way.
They may still rely on the U.S. for now, but a SOFA withdrawal deadline of 2010 or ‘11 is their way of saying they think our job will be done by then.
Mohammed;
Thank you for taking the time to visit with us.
As well, thank you for being willing to educate us.
Clearly, for most Americans their grasp of the enormity of the destruction our government has rained upon you is intellectual and shallow, owing to the fact that we blithely condem others to death and destruction without a clue as to what that means.
You see, it has been so very long since a war has visited here, that we simply have no understanding of what we have done or what it means to you and your society.
When we leave, and leave we must, what, if anything, might the people America, as opposed to the government of America, do that might be helpful to your nation?
That is a good question. A partial answer might be not to forget that Barzani was a very loyal and devoted regional governor under Saddam.
If Maliki were genuinely a puppet, the so called benchmarks would have long ago been agreed upon, not to mention the SOFA negotiations. Much to the chagrin of the Bush administration, Maliki has managed to convince them that he is their puppet.
yea, when was that, 2001?
And I apologize for not stepping up either. I was beginning to fume about the repetition and the lack of acceptance of your very polite silence.
(hello mark!)
No.
What relief work are you talking about?
I have seen little of it.
Yes, Raven?
What is your question?
You perceive acts of terrorism on one day in September as tantamount to the invasion and nearly six year occupation of an entire country?
You see, it has been so very long since a war has visited here, that we simply have no understanding of what we have done or what it means to you and your society.
Disagree. Think it’s just kicking the ball down the road to see what develops in the interim. IMHO, anyone, including Iraqis who think they know what would happen after US military withdrawal (not that there’s a ghost of a chance that would happen) is smoking dope. The Iraqi opinion is well worth knowing, and is probably much closer to reality than the US opinion, but (as Hugh illustrated above), locals can be just as mislead as foreigners.
Well, Raven;
Since our Civil War, what would you suggest would serve as ‘education’?
Sorry, I forgot, I don’t belong here on Sunday night.
That’s bullshit, Raven.
Can you not at least answer my question?
I think that once Obama begins the withdrawal it will be very difficult for him to place limitations on it. So I think it will be more than less complete. I think what he would like to see and time will tell if he gets is what in Vietnam was called a decent interval, i.e. the status quo until we leave and a little more before all hell breaks out.
The problem with permanent bases and the Kurds is that none of them are actually located in Kurdistan. Unless something has changed recently we only have a couple hundred troops there. Bush and Cheney were always tied to permanent basing. Obama not so much and as I said I think circumstances will push him even further away from the idea.
Thats too bad, because it was pretty big news here, how much better conditions were in Sadr City – with the security walls and all. Probably like the Iranian weapons and EFP story, now being debunked.
I am not knowledgeable enough with Iraq politics to understand what you said. Please elaborate. I think you mean that Barzani is targeted by many other Iraqi forces and will be dead if US troops leave?
Raven and DW, I really think we have better things to discuss tonight and a chance to learn something from someone actually on the ground. Can we leave the arguing for another time?
Sorry, Siun;
I came to listen.
Not quite. Maliki was eventually selected as the least unacceptable following the ousting of Jaafarih.
No that was al-Hakim, Babbagh, Khalish, and al-Rubaie.
Dawa is not a nationalist party and never has been. Specifically they argue for a pan-nationalist Shia identity based on the rule of the jurist.
i guess they missed what is going on on the flickr page,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27086036@N02/
though i liked the swimming pool pictures more, as you know.
you guys need to link it to the firedoglake reader’s page. not just your friends’ pages. go global.when you can.
http://www.flickr.com/groups_m…..tab=member
The Talabanis and Barzanis are the two big clans who have been running Kurdish politics since forever. One or the other or both always pick up with the powers that be, Saddam, us, whoever.
No I mean that Barzani is an opportunistic thug who will do whatever it will take to survive. He was very loyal lieutenant of Saddam Hussein and asked for (and recieved) a lot of help in violently putting down the Talabani faction.
I do not for a moment deny that the tyrant brutally suppressed the Kurds. I do however point out that he got a lot of Kurdish help to do so.
Mohammed, thank you very much for being with us tonight. Peace is my wish. Peace.
Yes, thank you Mohammed for spending time with us.
I look forward to your next visit.
DWB
Mohammed and mfi, I’m sorry I missed the discussion.
Peace to the two of you and your families.
In Diyala certainly. In Mosul they are trying to create buffer zones. I am not so sure they will succeed.
Dawa was never strong. It is a vanguard party. Whether Maliki’s personal increase in standing will translate to more seats I do not know. I doubt it.
I doubt it for the same reason I think people will not vote for SIIC or Badrists. They are tired of corruption and no services.
Thank you, again, Mohammed for your visit. I look forward to a visit not so far off when we no longer occupy your land. Peace to all.
And thank you FDL, for making this possible. Good-night all.
OK. Now I’m really confused. (That is a good thing. Means I’m shedding my priors.) So Barzani’s an opportunistic thug. I can understand that. My confusion stems from how all these opportunistic thugs, and all the other forces, will interact if US forces ever leave.
Maybe there’s no clear answers, and that is an OK response. But one of my objectives for trying to come to grips with what will happen in Iraq if US troops leave is in trying to convince my lefty US friends that is a valid objective. So I’m looking for arguments I can use in that effort.
Diane – what a pleasure to have you join us. Thanks for all your good work!
We have lived together for centuries before the Americans came. We can and will do so again.
My father was Shia of Sunni parentage. My mother was Sunni of Shia parentage and with Kurdish extraction. I have Turkmen relatives. My wife is Sunni. When God is pleased to bless us with children some will be Sunni some Shia.
I wish however to address your larger point and will ask for time while i translate my reply.
The opportunistic thugs (including not just Barzani but Talabani, Hakim, Maliki, Sadr, and many more) will continue to squabble and scheme for power after the U.S. is gone. Pretending the Americans leaving will be a panacea is a pipe dream, IMO. Even if you want to blame the U.S. entirely for opening Pandora’s box, the fact is that it’s open.
The reason the U.S. needs to leave is that thinking we have the ability to make things better by staying is a pipe dream, too. The only thing we can do is tilt the playing field toward one group of opportunistic thugs rather than others — with more Iraqis (and Americans) dying in the process.
Mahalo(thanks) for responding! How will the Sunni increase in seats be factored in? Or rather, how do you suppose it’ll impact the PTB’s (Powers That Be)?
Mohammed, please take you time. We really appreciate your willingness to chat with us and to translate so carefully for our benefit.
i’ll never catch up with comments at this rate-so, i’ll just pursue my own agenda in this–mohammed’s gift as an artist……mohammed, i will read what you wrote later. i hope to read what you write in the way of being where you are right now, later…in your poetry……..please write, mohammed. you are gifted.it is a responsibility, surely you have not abandonded the responsibility for being a voice of your people through art? siun, can you provide a link to mohammed’s poetry? my computer is not cooperating…
mohammed, a gun and a pen, the pen is mightier than the sword…in the long run.so, write of the sword with your pen…..and tell fatima i said hi, and have her read this.
other responsibilities?hey raven.
There are three main factions in Iraq but there are factions within those factions and these are, have been, or likely will be at each others’ throats in the future. We kind of brokered a power sharing agreement between the Barzanis and Talabanis but the underlying competition between the two has not gone away nor have they developed any tolerance for any other potential rivals. Democracy in Iraqi Kurdistan is very narrowly defined.
Calling Barzani an opportunistic thug is sort of generic. There aren’t too many politicians in Iraq who aren’t. Those who aren’t don’t have a long shelf life. When we leave, there is going to be a power vacuum and a power struggle to fill it. The Kurds are trying to grab as much as they can before that. The Sunnis are arming and training under their Sons of Iraq rubric and the Shia control the central government so can arm within the armed forces or like the Mahdi Army do it more at street level.
and siun, and mark, and laura, thank you.
Thank you soooo much. What you have already said provides me with more understanding than anyone I will talk to. And I can communicate it clearly. I will check back later to see if you add something.
FYI, for all the supposed melting pot that the US purports to be, there is a very straight & narrow theme to my country’s outlook. I think the US has no clue about how to do a multiethnic country, election of white-wannabe-Obama (unfair charactarization for brevity’s sake) notwithstanding. Which is all the more reason why the US should keep its nose out of other people’s business. But try to convince an American of that! Every USian I have ever talked with has his/her own opinion about why the US is superior. And mostly the opinions are uninformed.
My understanding comports with yours. What I’m interested in is how Iraqis look at the situation. Small sample here, but larger than zero sample.
I will just note that both you and Swopa have missed a significant comment from Mohammed above @107:
I find that too many Americans continually default to seeing Iraq through American media and views particularly when they rarely read even the Iraqi sources available in English – and then are quite convinced they understand Iraq better than Iraqis. An interesting belief…
Trying hard not to commit that error. Thanks for highlighting that comment, which I had overlooked.
It is a serious pratfall that I try painstakingly to avoid…! ;-)
Did you see that Badger finally posted anew…?
We all need to work on that … we are so used to the assumption that we know best, eh?
that’s the last i heard, great britain, i sure hope it’s true. i heard it was thorough lebanon, hope she made it out of there if it was true.
I can only hope that the references to these politicians as “thugs” comes with a caveat that it should include politicians Lincoln and Davis as “thugs” in the prelude to our own civil war.
I am a Muslim I am Iraki. I deny completely – because God tells me so. That any people are intrinsically better than any other people.
49:13
Americans have set themselves up as a sort of master race. By this I mean that they are convinced that merely by virtue of being American that they are the “good guys”.
From the very earliest times you have said that you were a “shining city on a hill” that God has chosen and set you apart to bring the world to your ways and your values. From this it follows that all who oppose you must by definition be evil. Any method is justified to force us to forsake evil and become good little imitation Americans who will gladly give you what you want.
No.
You are not the good guys you are the bad guys and if you wish to be “good” here is a simple first step:
Stop doing bad.
Ah anna, I hope so too.
A very good friend in the Middle East reminds me often that we all have blood on our hands – an important lesson.
Well, speaking for me, I work on the assumption that, as a USian, I know least. But I also labor under the burden that I am a history moron. I was taught history under the worst of the educational edicts: dates, battles, leaders. Learn, memorize, forget. (In Polish, I am told that is the 3 Zs.) So I remember nothing unless I have read a book in the last 8 years.
This is the lesson we never seem to learn … from the founding and our treatment of the first peoples, to today in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps our “original sin” and one that we need to learn to give up if we hope to live in a peaceful world someday.
Your comment, Mohammed, and Siun’s, which follows @168 essentially say the whole of it.
I look forward to hearing the wisdom of your words, in poetry or prose, for as long as I am alive to appreciate and learn from them.
For those of us who disagree, it is very difficult to pursuade the rest of USians, especially those in power.
Irak is my home – not yours and you are not welcome here. You have proved repeatedly as a people that you have complete contempt for the very humanity of my people.
Does it only become genocide when you have murdered six million of us?
I am interested in peace, not in friendship, there are two ways we can have peace.
1) You can leave.
2) You can murder all of us.
I read it. Not sure I buy it. Most civil wars are highly factionalized affairs, and any group may form an alliance of convenience with any other. This doesn’t mean and should not be taken to mean anything other than a temporary convergence of interests, not an identity of views.
All I can say is that I heard similar condescension about “seeing Iraq through American media” in this space back in June from a GorillasGuides representative, who claimed Maliki was going to give Bush everything he wanted — whereas I argued that the Iraqi government wasn’t just posturing in their SOFA objections, and that they were stalling in hopes of a coming Obama administration (views that seem to have been vindicated).
Even though I am but a lowly non-Arabic-reading honky, and it may be showing cultural disrespect, I’ll stick with the analytical framework that seems to have been right so far. Sorry.
There is an original sin of all settlement societies that I see. And if you try to bring that up in US, you are accused of “blame America first.” Other examples are S. Africa, Israel, and many others. Latin America until recently.
in the previous thread we had a military man, andrew bacevich (who’s son died in iraq) write the following about the usa:
i hope we can learn.
I have read his book.
you are defiant, you are logical, you are an artist.
on the other hand i remember the out pouring of support for the people of falluja in the spring of 2004 (during the first american attempt to destroy the city). of course that did not happen in late 2004 (during the second)… so i don’t know what to think.
may i ask your opinion of it? i have not read it yet – do you recommend it?
We have so much to learn, I am tempted to ask more questions but I am conscious that Mohammed has given up his sleep – as has the Guides team – to make the conversation possible so I suggest we call it a night.
But before that, I wanted to send best wishes to Mohammed and his family which I understand will be growing soon. May we find a way for a peaceful future for the next generation!
yes. many thanks to all, most especially to mohammed.
May you, your family and friends stay safe.
I read it with hostile intent. “Know your enemy” is good advice – yes he seems to me be honestly trying to do good for the people whom he loves and in doing so has had to follow his thoughts to their logical conclusion.
Yes, peace!
And thank you, Mohammed.
And PEACE, by the first ‘option’ as well.
Thank you, Mohammed, Siun and all.
Good evening.
David
thank you. i did not expect your intent to be otherwise. still i can not help but hoping for a day when the people who’s future we care about extends beyond those we know and love.
Many thanks to Mohammed Ibn Laith and Siun for this extraordinary dialogue. Especially with a member of the Sadr trend, arguably the most misunderstood interest in Iraq. I sincerely hope this could happen again.
Best of fortunes with your art Mohammed.
My writing is no more than the most distant echo of the Holy Qur’an, I would encourage you to read the original :-)
My thanks to our hostess and to those who asked questions and who listened to the replies.
Our thanks to you Mohammed. Peace!
Thank you Mohammed, Mark, Dr. Jameel. Best wishes to all the guides.
Thanks, Siun for all you do to make this kind of meeting possible.
Teddy is upstairs!
h8er Won’t Get My “MILK” Money