Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball

Pundits almost never get post-presidential election analyses right. Remember 2004's "value voters" who, it was believed, emerged from the church sanctuaries to re-elect George W. Bush? Stupid exit poll methodology contributed to that blunder. Usually, it's the need to connect election outcomes to their pre-election narratives, biases, and expectations that lead political commentators to build awkward and feeble rope bridges across the deep holes in their logic.

By electing an African-American their president, American voters once again out-foxed the foxes who, months ago, said it couldn't happen. Now, some pundits want to take the fact that Barack Obama was elected by an overwhelming margin as a sign that the nation might have escaped its racist past. Others offer more sober views.

To me, Obama's victory is of such confounding symbolic power that it's hard to think about. It's like the moon landing. We did it. And that means...? The crystal ball's more like an over-stuffed snow globe. I can't see what's inside.

There are the obvious things: a rejection of Bush's and McCain's right-wing policies; the triumph of Obama's calm intelligence; the enormous value of inspired activists with the resources to turn inspiration into action. It may be there's simply nothing to say beyond noting Obama's talent and McCain's campaign ineptitude, and congratulating ourselves for our hard work.

I don't believe the election changed the minds of any racists. I think that transformation, if it happens, lies in the future. I think that even the possibility of such a transformation depends upon whether we keep working hard for Obama, in the streets, among our colleagues, friends, neighbors, and families.

But I live in Texas. A healthy chunk of the Lone Star State is culturally and politically a part of the Old South. Another healthy chunk is Western, more individualist and ornery, less knee-jerk bigoted and more pragmatic. Urban Texas, and, increasingly, suburban Texas, is moving left of center.

Turnout in Texas was about 60 percent, four points behind the national turnout of 65 percent. Obama lost Texas by 12 points. So did Democratic Senatorial candidate Rick Noriega.

However, Democrats here closed the gap in the state House. Depending on the outcome of a recount in one race, the Texas House of Representatives will be 75-75 or 74-76, advantage Republicans. There has been a well-organized, disciplined, Democratic effort to recapture the state House. But I still think there are clues to the implications of the national elections here.

Electoral college results can be very misleading as indicators of cultural trends.While Obama's popular vote margin was impressive, it's not telling us much about the future. Almost all possibilities remain open. Obama might lose by a similar margin in 2012. He might win by the same or larger margin. Who knows?

So what might Texas tell us?

Racism played a significant role in the outcome. Texans were willing to vote for Democrats down the ballot, hoping Dems can address their worries about education, jobs, health care, and the economy. The Republican brand has taken a hit, but not enough of a hit to overcome the state's racist heritage.

Using the extreme case of Texas, I think we can see that Obama will need to successfully address these anxieties if he stands any chance of growing his margin in four years.

Democrats have a right to celebrate. Wise and charismatic, Obama out-thought and out-worked John McCain and his campaign. A nation full of supporters and activists made the victory possible. This means we have got the right man for the job, but the job remains to be done. And we can see what that job is in bold relief in Texas, a state Obama lost. We need to win the upcoming fights on health care, on jobs, on the environment, on education.

Here in Texas, like elsewhere, the Obama victory led to an irrational run on gun shops. Racists, survivalists and other idiots convinced themselves that Obama was going to take their money and their guns. So irrational are these people that their minds and hearts are beyond reach.

But if we approach the next four years correctly, there might be a hardening among racists, but their numbers might be made to shrink. We can attack soft bigotry. Generational change helps. A successful four years might get some white voters to set aside their presumed racial superiority and vote for Obama.

It may seem counter-intuitive to look to a place like Texas for clues to the future. But consider this: the 2010 census will award Texas three to five new congressional seats, seats that will come from states that voted for Obama. Like it or not, some of the future is going to be decided in Texas.

And, as I've noted, looking at the extreme can provide a clearer sign of the challenges ahead.