graphic by twolf
From the beginning, I believed that the path for a Democratic victory in 2008 was fairly secure and straightforward: Obama (or Clinton) would retain all of the Kerry states, and pick off 1-2 Bush states for the win. It was just difficult to imagine any Republican candidate winning any of the Kerry states. And given the epic failure of the Bush presidency and the toxicity of the Republican brand, all they could hope to do was somehow keep the 2004 map intact.
McCain had a very slim chance to do that, but it evaporated. Here’s how.
1) Iraqi government insists on timetable, endorses Obama’s withdrawal plan. This effectively killed the McCain candidacy. McCain’s brand — even his campaign logo — is national security. Iraq was the reason he won the primary. Iraq was the central and really, only justification of his candidacy ("I know how to win wars."). Even more damaging, he’d been railing against timetables for months, equating withdrawal with "surrender." At the time, I wrote, "I don’t see how he recovers," and he never did. His entire campaign message shifted away from national security and Iraq, where his only advantage was, and made the Palin pick possible.
2) Sarah Palin. The worst veep pick in modern history absolutely dragged down the ticket, as every poll indicates. If McCain picks Crist, he wins Florida and maybe he keeps NC. If he picks Pawlenty, perhaps he gets MN and keeps OH. Sure, still not enough to reverse the final result, but not the blowout it turned out to be — and maybe the greater competitiveness at the end forces Team Obama to play a little defense. Remember, the Palin pick only happened because McCain had already abandoned national security as his central theme, and clumsily shifted to "reform." McCain, who’s been in the Senate for two decades and shares his party with George W. Bush, simply was never a credible reformer.
3) The financial crisis. The banking meltdown not only exposed the disastrous Republican policies of financial deregulation — of which McCain and his chief economic adviser Phil Gramm were champions — but McCain’s response to the crisis was erratic and weird. He looked panicked, indecisive and out of his element — and it set up the worst quote by either candidate of the entire campaign. It didn’t help that he spent the previous couple of years talking about how little he knew about the economy. And he felt comfortable doing so all that time since he assumed 2008 would be a national security election.
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Lieberliar just spoke to cameras, and didn’t say a damned thing.
shoot…….i read the whole thing
Great summary
I was mystified by this campaign….They spent all their money and energy to get “the base” to support em- who are 30% of the vote at best- and totally ignored the swing voters they needed to win….Bone headed campaign from start to finish- glad that the guy who ran that abortion won’t be running the country…
hey jayt…….im baking bread,and im still walking on air
I think McCain wanted to lose. How else could you explain his doing his goodbye speech so well?
so true,and the media still licked their balls,i guess Katies interview,really made Pandora Palin look stooooooooooopit
It’s true, Palin was a base pick. Exactly what you don’t want in an election where you’re trying to distance yourself from the incumbent.
Harry Reid is such a doofus,LieberPutz is just a pathetic little man
hiya – I’m still pretty much whistling a lot too.
Probably would be different if I weren’t convinced that the Prop 8 vote will go down in flames when it hits the courts.
ok – back to work – later y’all.
4. the vicious, negative campaign.
Doesn’t it strike anybody else as odd that the MSM still seems to have trouble saying, “My God, Bush was such a spectacular failure.”
It seems kind of simple and obvious that the politicians know it, the voters know it, but there is this Emperor’s New Clothes refusal, even now, to acknowledge the obvious failure, on a truly embarassing and massive scale, of everything Bush touched.
How could the Republicans have expected any result other than being sent to the corner with no supper?
Yeah, that really was a tremendous speech. My thought was that he finally told the “handlers” to f*ck off and wrote it himself. It was genuine.
amazing how a man can say so little so often.
The fact that McCain was speaking gibberish most of the time in a very snide manner didn’t help him much.
Breaking News:
NBC reporter announces the new US Senate make-up.
49 Republicans.
56 Democrats.
There are now 106 US Senators…..
-G
The shocking news was broken by Andrea Mitchell.
-G
Opps…..bad math for me too.
105!
Need more sleep.
-G
She was using hubby’s calculator. Explains a lot!
Mispelled oops too….
I’m going to bed.
-G
I was pleasantly surprised by his speech although I cringed a little at the initial “affirmative action” tone. But overall, a B+/A-.
It’s weird to look at a person who could not shake Obama’s hand on the Senate floor, called him “that one”, spoke so contemptuously on the stump, and hear him sound so gracious. The same man who made Gloria Alfond cry, who voted against his fellow veterans’ interests, and called his wife dirty names was gracious. Just weird.
He sucked.
Take yer vitamins, dood! :P
Bingo
and two ‘independents’ makes 107
He sucked Rocks !
The MSM can’t say it because, in all honesty, they would have to say, “My God, Bush was such OUR spectacular failure.”
The MSM convinced America that this petulant, incurious, intellectually vapid son of privilege was a deep-thinking, caring cowboy who had lots in common with reg’lar Merikens. Having accomplished that miracle, they then went along with the fiction that he was a war hero in 9/11, instead of facing the fact that 9/11 happened on his watch.
They can’t ever face Bush’s failure, because it’s their failure. Admitting their failure will cost them their gravitas and their place at America’s table.
Really short version – McShame = fraud
You know it wasn’t so much McCain’s response to the financial meltdown but the country’s that did McCain in. And I harped on this earlier in the day but god awful candidate and campaign that he ran he still got 48% of the vote which I find a scathing indictment of the electorate’s intelligence and sanity.
Maybe he wants Leibvermin’s committee assignments.
McCain’s campaign made Bob Doles’ look inspired.
-G
I wonder if he was stripped or what?
They’re eating their own: Limbaugh’s on railing against the McCain people who supposedly are attacking Palin. Limbaugh’s attacking FOX “news.”
Murdoch’s NewsCorp net revenues down 30% – stock getting pummeled.
Karma’s a bitch, Rupert.
You’re effed.
Well, get got 46%. Let’s assume Palin cost him 2-3%. That puts him within the margin.
The jury is still out on McCain’s concession speech for me. There was something off about the content but maybe I’m just sleep deprived
I agree with you and, in addition, believe that McCain surrendered his single potent argument, experience, with the Palen pick. Still, you’re talking about an electorate which believed George Bush was actually a strong defender of the country against barbarian hordes and John Kerry was an effiminite cheese nibbler. The same electorate liked George Bush’s statment that his favorite political philosopher was Jesus Christ. So I wasn’t really comfortable until Ohio went for Obama.
Probably presented with his options given that he would not be chairing any committees
They’re eating their own:
LOL!
Yes, that scares me too. I cannot imagine what the circs would have to be like for Obama to be elected to a second term.
Yes, that was another problem with the Palin pick. It negated his primary attack on Obama. But again, would’ve never picked her w/o his being on the wrong side of Iraq.
Lieberweasel apparently had his Harry Reid meeting and says he will take a few days to consider his “options”. Sounds as if Reid canned him.
Did Harry break up with HoJo yet ?
I would have loved to hear that conversation.
Hey you !
hehehehe he’ll go whine ot his wife and his best friend mccain. I don’t think he will switch parties but then again, why not? thisis the end of his political career as the repubs have no use for him
Um … a nice prolonged investigation into the ills of BushCo ought to do it …
See, I do not go along with your theory that the MSM does not want to say Bush was a complete failure, because they do not want to acknowledge their complicity in the “glorious leader” narrative Rove was selling….
That would imply the narcissistic news readers of the MSM actually had a sense of shame, and I do not think they are capable of shame.
That is why I love the way Left Blogistan uses the term “the Village” to refer to Washington–they are an insular clan that never really left high school, and no one is willing to admit that the guy they were calling the cool kid was really a jerk–at least, not until everybody else in the Village starts saying it….
“Great minds …” *g*
Gotta agree with you there, but have tried really hard to no think about that as it will definitely kill my (however brief) high. I bought the NYT Tuesday so I could plaster it on the wall and remind myself when the inevitable sh** hits the fan later of the elation we all felt tuesday night and wed. The victory of hope over fear, if only by 6 percent. Funny thing is, i think that 48%, many of them anyway, will come around, and 2012 could be a real FDR kind of election. If the dems remember where they left their cajones. (Next to Boner’s thingy?)
The gooper eating gooper contest has only just begun….the Palin debate is a vehicle for the long smoldering conflict between the gooper money people and the “culture wars” anti- intellectual “base”.
If push comes to shove- the “base” wins I suppose. The money people let em in and they’ve taken over the place- swingin from the light fixtures and paintin religious slogans over all the books and art work… Should be fun
I live for the day when the press will not be at all interested in what HoJo has to say. He is constantly posing and I detest it. Let him be obscure.
*just went back and read what I wrote — oh dear* hehehe
Maybe McCain and HoJo will convince Graham to cut class and go Rug shopping …
No time soon I suspect. The press knows that Lieberweasel is gonna be forced to eat some shit and they want it on camera.
Backatcha!
From the female POV, He’s just so…….. flaccid.
Are they gonna take the glass out first?
-G
How’s things ? Any plans to come out my way ?
ROFL … I thought you were going back to bed …
Perfect word -LOL
Being that I am a visual person, I sooooo did not need that picture stuck in my head.
Someone pass the brain bleach. please.
McBush convinced Lieberweasel to sell his political future for the chance to make history as the only person to appear on the veep roster of losing campaigns for both political parties- but after he’d given up his shriveled soul, McBush said “just kiddin”!
Lieberweasel will probably become a pro choice gooper and live out the rest of his political days unloved and unwashed.
Why did McCain loose? ….. finally the rest of the world saw THE Real McCain….
No media spin….. no fluff BBQ BFF bias …… People finally got past the hero worship……… and started asking questions …… Like WHY and WHAT gives McCain those foreign policy and security street creds?
Finally others saw “real” McCain that those of us in Arizona have known for years…
After making his “fundamentals” gaffe, McCain would have been better off to let it go and move on. His attempt to rationalize it by saying he’d been referring to American workers and subsequently implying that Obama didn’t respect working people only served to keep attention focused on his blunder.
lol. Sounds almost Jacksonian.
Might happen in the next few days. Have some broken strings to fix in Georgetown and an instrument to view in Kitchener, just trying to synchronize.
dems are apparently up 22 house seats with six still in dispute. Gain of 25 wouldn’t be bad.
Do you still have my e-mail addy ? We could meet for coffee/drink …
The Grand Old Party is going Donner Party.
-G
I have a question, which I could answer myself if I weren’t so indolent. Did McCain beat Bush’s 2004 total vote? I’ve been thinking about margins in a lot of the states, and it seems that he actually increased the Republik vote in many states. I expected some of our margins to be a lot higher — e.g. VA. If so, that sad old GOP vampire isn’t dead yet. Got to save our stakes and garlic for another round.
IIRC, Bush got close to 60 Million votes … looking now for a link
62,040,610 votes … no word on how many of those were swung by Diebold.
I woke back up after a night mare….
A bunch of brain eating GOP-er zombies……dancing to a Michael Jackson’s Thriller….except the lyrics were change to Wasilla.
-G
Tues one of the news channels quoted a repub leader as saying a 25 seat gain for dems would be a “disaster” for repubs
yes, don’t we wish!
Clearly a sign of a center right nation!
-G
The debates really helped. People saw one candidate who remained poised while his opponent appeared agitated, flailing, rude, disingenuous, and desperate. Time will tell but I think historians might conclude that these debates had even more impact than the JFK/Nixon debate. Much larger audience and Nixon conducted himself well, he just didn’t LOOK good.
Nope. Bush got 62M. Obama got 63+.
LOL … not a pretty sight
Most definitely. This is just round one. I see maybe three more rounds to go to have us back to oh the public awareness level of 68? Is that a decent analogy? maybe not. but you get the idea. It’s all about education and not the kind they’re dishin out in schools these days..
I just facebooked you.
Checking now …
hey now, there are minors here *g*
ROFL … I thought the same thing … way too much British Humor in my younger days …
I agree that they had an important effect. I don’t think McCain’s nasty and eratic performance was any worse than that of Bush sweating, frantic looking, saying “it’s hard work” repeatedly. However, I’m happy McCain’s performance did have an serious effect.
Replied to ya !
I think that McCain never had a chance and neither did any of the other candidates because the GOP is fractured into at least three and maybe more irreconcilable camps. They never got their act together and won’t as now constituted.
I suspect that the “Christians” will end up in charge, while the others leave the GOP as “unacceptable” and join up with the Libertarians, Dems or just die off.
Too bad more of them didn’t lose in this election. Their end game sickened me.
Considering how close the outcome was even with an inept candidate, if Kerry had campaigned half as well as Obama he’d have easily won in 2004.
Never underestimate the power of a man who listens. Look at how convinced we are that Obama listens – his facial expressions, his body posture, his responsiveness. I’m convinced if men studied that and then practiced it in their relationships, marital satisfaction would boom. Sometimes I thought women cried just because they felt listened to. On the other hand, we had W and his “Who cares what you think?”
I absolutely agree, Kerry was vapid.
You’re probably right, but even campaigning half as well as Obama did would him placed him pretty high on the scale of campaigners.
Yes, watching the whole unfold from up here, I was astounded by Obama’s campaign.
Part of Obama’s success owes to the fact that he can learn from the mistakes of others. He was determined not to be swiftboated, let the Republicans define him in any way, or set the narrative. To that extent, Kerry’s failures made Obama a better candidate in this election.
and Cheney’s “so what?”
as in “fuck you for asking”
Also the power of making people know you are listening, KEY. Tom Allen lost against Sen Collins in Maine cause he couldn’t get voters to believe he was really listening to them, heard that over and over canvassing for him. Had the experience first hand myself with him numerous times.
The power to really make people feel you’re listening is the single best asset a pol can have these days.
I’m sure that’s true. When I think about Obama and his campaign, I’m almost startled by the degree which he consistently matched what I was looking for in a candidate. To oversimplify it, I was looking for someone who had high ideals and lofty goals, but was a pragmatist, knew how to consider options and select the best available solutions, and could lead and inspire people, and demonstated they were and effective politician. Although I didn’t favor him initially, as being insufficiently experienced, he met what I was looking for, more than anyone else, on every occasion.
It’s possible McCain, being all-maverickly-like, was sabotaging the Republican party from within. His revenge against the bastards who took over the White House in 2001. In any event, his campaign seems to have succeeded in rendering the party irrelevant.