Comments on: Senate Race Update: Four Seats Still Up In The Air http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/ Firedoglake weblog Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:00:20 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: BooRadley http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1714127 BooRadley Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:59:34 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1714127 <p>Thanks BT. <a href="http://digg.com/politics/Senate_Race_Update_Four_Seats_Still_Up_In_The_Air" rel="nofollow">digg</a></p> Thanks BT. digg

]]> By: oregondave http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713663 oregondave Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:14:47 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713663 <p>Updates:</p> <p>Multnomah Co.<a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html" rel="nofollow"> still lagging in count</a>, with only 51% reported as of 10:55 am.</p> <p>And <a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/11/gordon_smith_leading_senate_ra.html" rel="nofollow">pollster Hibbetts this morning</a>:</p> <blockquote><p>Despite the closeness of the count, expert number cruncher Tim Hibbitts said he still expects Merkley to win, but he hedged his bet.<br /> “I still think Merkley is going to win,” Hibbitts said. “But it’s going to be tight, and a lot tighter than I thought it was going to be. We shall see.”</p> <p>Hibbitts said that in his 32 years as an election analyst, he has incorrectly predicted only two out of 900 races. “This could be a third,” he said. “But I still feel confident that Merkley will win.” </p></blockquote> Updates:

Multnomah Co. still lagging in count, with only 51% reported as of 10:55 am.

And pollster Hibbetts this morning:

Despite the closeness of the count, expert number cruncher Tim Hibbitts said he still expects Merkley to win, but he hedged his bet.
“I still think Merkley is going to win,” Hibbitts said. “But it’s going to be tight, and a lot tighter than I thought it was going to be. We shall see.”

Hibbitts said that in his 32 years as an election analyst, he has incorrectly predicted only two out of 900 races. “This could be a third,” he said. “But I still feel confident that Merkley will win.”

]]> By: oregondave http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713638 oregondave Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:55:47 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713638 <p>Longtime Oregon pollster Tim Hibbets actually called it for Merkley last night, based on the fact that, with 40% of the statewide vote counted, only 12% of Multnomah county’s vote (Portland and suburbs) had been counted. As of 10:00 PST this morning, only 49%.</p> <p>If you go to The Oregonian newspaper’s website here:<br /><a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html" rel="nofollow">Oregon U.S. Senate Results<br /></a>and mouse over the map, you’ll see that the largely rural red counties, which are voting Smith by margins of 2-1 and 3-1, have been mostly counted, while the populous blue ones lag behind. That it is this close now is a very good sign that it will tip to Merkley.</p> <p>As to FrankProbst’s question why votes by mail can’t be counted faster: my guess is because they are being careful with the crush of people dropping off ballots last night — too late to mail; postmarks don’t count — and provisional ballots. IMO, being careful is a good thing.</p> <p>Next Multnomah Co. update at approx. 11:00 PST. <a href="http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/results.shtml" rel="nofollow">Here</a>.</p> Longtime Oregon pollster Tim Hibbets actually called it for Merkley last night, based on the fact that, with 40% of the statewide vote counted, only 12% of Multnomah county’s vote (Portland and suburbs) had been counted. As of 10:00 PST this morning, only 49%.

If you go to The Oregonian newspaper’s website here:
Oregon U.S. Senate Results
and mouse over the map, you’ll see that the largely rural red counties, which are voting Smith by margins of 2-1 and 3-1, have been mostly counted, while the populous blue ones lag behind. That it is this close now is a very good sign that it will tip to Merkley.

As to FrankProbst’s question why votes by mail can’t be counted faster: my guess is because they are being careful with the crush of people dropping off ballots last night — too late to mail; postmarks don’t count — and provisional ballots. IMO, being careful is a good thing.

Next Multnomah Co. update at approx. 11:00 PST. Here.

]]> By: BargainCountertenor http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713636 BargainCountertenor Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:53:51 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713636 <p>Hey, PW. Last night somebody said you were a myth. I want you know I stuck up for you and said I was pretty sure you’re a mythus.</p> Hey, PW. Last night somebody said you were a myth. I want you know I stuck up for you and said I was pretty sure you’re a mythus.

]]> By: BargainCountertenor http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713633 BargainCountertenor Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:50:42 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713633 <p>Why do Democrats persist in doing Republican’s dirty work for them?</p> Why do Democrats persist in doing Republican’s dirty work for them?

]]> By: Phoenix Woman http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713630 Phoenix Woman Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:46:44 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713630 <p>This is the war between the TheoCons and the CorporateCons. Palin is the TheoCons’ standard-bearer; they’re going to try and argue that she helped McCain be a lot closer than he would have been without her. But while her presence on the ticket helped keep the Fundies in line, she scared everyone else.</p> <p>It’s going to be a nasty war, and with any luck they’ll stay distracted by it long enough for Obama to get some key things done.</p> This is the war between the TheoCons and the CorporateCons. Palin is the TheoCons’ standard-bearer; they’re going to try and argue that she helped McCain be a lot closer than he would have been without her. But while her presence on the ticket helped keep the Fundies in line, she scared everyone else.

It’s going to be a nasty war, and with any luck they’ll stay distracted by it long enough for Obama to get some key things done.

]]> By: Phoenix Woman http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713623 Phoenix Woman Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:42:53 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713623 <p>Unfortunately, three things really hurt Al Franken: </p> <p>1) The extremely dirty primary campaign waged against him by Mike Ciresi and Ciresi’s allies, such as Betty McCollum (who led the charge on tsk-tsk-ing Franken’s allegedly naughty work for Hugh Hefner’s <i>Playboy</i> magazine, even though she is a happy recipient of EMILY’s List money, which of course comes from the Hefner family coffers).</p> <p>2) The existence of a semi-viable third-party candidate to Hoover up disaffected voters who would have voted for Franken if Betty McCollum hadn’t gone after him.</p> <p>3) The Texas lawsuits, which Coleman and his allies in the local media falsely yet successfully spun as originating from Franken’s camp (which as the plaintiff in question says is funny, as he’s a Republican).</p> Unfortunately, three things really hurt Al Franken:

1) The extremely dirty primary campaign waged against him by Mike Ciresi and Ciresi’s allies, such as Betty McCollum (who led the charge on tsk-tsk-ing Franken’s allegedly naughty work for Hugh Hefner’s Playboy magazine, even though she is a happy recipient of EMILY’s List money, which of course comes from the Hefner family coffers).

2) The existence of a semi-viable third-party candidate to Hoover up disaffected voters who would have voted for Franken if Betty McCollum hadn’t gone after him.

3) The Texas lawsuits, which Coleman and his allies in the local media falsely yet successfully spun as originating from Franken’s camp (which as the plaintiff in question says is funny, as he’s a Republican).

]]> By: BargainCountertenor http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713620 BargainCountertenor Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:41:28 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713620 <p>Voting theory has come a very long way since the Framers wrote the constitution. We wouldn’t need run-offs if we’d got to a STV system.</p> <p>We wouldn’t have had President Bush if we had a STV system, either.</p> <p>Maybe we needs us a constitutional amendment?</p> Voting theory has come a very long way since the Framers wrote the constitution. We wouldn’t need run-offs if we’d got to a STV system.

We wouldn’t have had President Bush if we had a STV system, either.

Maybe we needs us a constitutional amendment?

]]> By: redX http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713607 redX Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:35:17 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713607 <p>She was trying to thread that needle. Big thing I see from her leadership team is doing the middle (Pelosi) and that they don’t want to pass anything without Repblican votes (Coburn).</p> <p>She did not that the definition of liberal/middle/etc.</p> She was trying to thread that needle. Big thing I see from her leadership team is doing the middle (Pelosi) and that they don’t want to pass anything without Repblican votes (Coburn).

She did not that the definition of liberal/middle/etc.

]]> By: redX http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713604 redX Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:33:45 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/11/05/senate-race-update-four-seats-still-up-in-the-air/#comment-1713604 <p>Hope they do try to block it, the closer to the election of 2010 then the best for us to keep a hook to hang corrupt R’s on.</p> Hope they do try to block it, the closer to the election of 2010 then the best for us to keep a hook to hang corrupt R’s on.

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