Ballots are still being tabulated but I want to go through the House races and compare the wins and losses with the DWT predictions from Monday night.
First though, I'd like to mention that I just spoke with Carol-Shea-Porter, the one Blue America incumbent that had a tough fight. She won it handily and I just got off the phone with her. "You can talk about working men and women in this country," she told me, "and you can talk about a progressive agenda and universal healthcare and... you can win! And you can run a campaign and not go negative. I'm very proud of that and of the way my staff conducted themselves. And to know that we now have a president who knows us and who can lead! The spell is broken!"
AL-02: Bobby Bright- 50%
AL-05: Parker Griffith- 52%
AL-03: Josh Segall- 47%
AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz- 44%
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick- 56%
AZ-03: Bob Lord- 42%
CA-04: Charlie Brown*- too close to call
CA-03: Bill Durston- 44%
CA-26: Russ Warner*- 40%
CA-45: Julie Bornstein- 44%
CA-46: Debbie Cook*- 43%
CA-50: Nick Leibham- 46%
CO-04: Betsy Markey- 55%
CT-04: Jim Himes*- 51%
FL-08: Alan Grayson*- 52%
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas- 57%
FL-25: Joe Garcia*- 47%
FL-12: Doug Tudor- 41%
FL-13: Christine Jennings- 38%
FL-18: Annette Taddeo*- 42%
FL-21: Raul Martinez- 42%
ID-01: Walt Minnick- 51%
IL-10: Dan Seals- 45%
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson- 58%
IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler- 42%
IN-03: Michael Montagano- 40%
IN-06: Barry Welsh*- 32%
IA-04: Becky Greenwald- 39%
IA-05: Rob Hubler- 37%
KY-02: David Boswell- 47%
LA-04: Paul Carmouche- run-off
MD-01: Frank Kratovil- 49% (recount)
MI-07: Mark Schauer*- 49% (a win)
MI-09: Gary Peters*- 52%
MI-08: Robert Alexander- 40%
MN-03: Ashwin Madia- 41%
MN-06: Elwyn Tinklenberg- 44%
MN-02: Steve Sarvi- 43%
MO-09: Judy Baker- 47%
MO-06: Kay Barnes- 37%
NE-02: Jim Esch- 48%
NV-03: Dina Titus- 48% (a win)
NV-02: Jill Derby- 41%
NJ-03: John Adler- too close to call
NJ-07: Linda Stender- 41%
NJ-05: Dennis Shulman*- 42%
NM-01: Martin Heinrich*- 55%
NM-02: Harry Teague- 55%
NM-03: Ben Ray Lujan- 56%
NY-13: Michael McMahon- 61%
NY-25: Dan Maffei*- 55%
NY-29: Eric Massa*- 51%
NY-26: Alice Kryzan- 40%
NC-08: Larry Kissell*- 55%
OH-01: Steve Dreihaus- 52%
OH-02: Victoria Wulsin* - recount
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy- 43%
OH-16: John Boccieri- 54%
OH-03: Jane Mitakides- 40%
OH-07: Sharen Neuhardt- 42%
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper- 52%
PA-15: Sam Bennett*- 41%
PA-18: Steve O'Donnell- 36%
SC-01: Linda Ketner- 47%
TX-07: Michael Skelly- 42%
TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty*- 43%
VA-05: Tom Perriello*- 50% (a win)
VA-11: Gerald Connolly- 53%
VA-02: Glenn Nye- 52%
VA-10: Judy Feder*- 38%
WA-08: Darcy Burner*- too close to call
WY-AL: Gary Trauner- 43%
The only Democratic incumbents to lose were really bad ones, reactionaries who vote with the GOP and deserved to lose. Their losses should be celebrated and should serve as a warning to other Democrats who forget that Democrats are supposed to helping working families, not serve the special interests.The losers:
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)- 40%
Don Cazayoux (LA-06)- 40%
Nick Lampson (TX-22)- 45%
[UPDATE: Nancy Boyda, a decent moderate from Kansas' second district lost her seat to state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, not a radical extremist but a mainstream conservative, for no apparent reason other than all that stuff Thomas Frank wrote about.]
Names in italics were longshots and names with stars are Blue America candidates.
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zed?
Another zed! So are we going to call it the Steven’s Effect if he wins? People won’t tell pollsters they will vote for a corrupt convicted felon, but then vote for him?
thanks howie, i came on here to find the blue america results–cbl2 gave me the link a few threads back.where i was epu’d and then lost in space in grittv..here was my thank you to her—
thanks my dear, this one’s for you–
oh the irony-tim robbins’ voting marathon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQbOU3S2eL4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y73sPHKxw
===========
and i posted your latest=
the page link so people can see the older stuff from the campaign, too.
http://www.youtube.com/user/downwithtyranny1
Some great wins there. Good to see that Massa pulled it off this time around.
Rahm Emanuel.
Ugh.
He’s going to continue clinging to the center.
lol
Brings up a good point on the Presidential win - the Bradley effect appears to have gone the way of the dodo bird.
standing o for howie! your indefatigable energy in finding and promoting great progressive dems led the way for last night’s very good night.
thank you.
How do we know that the Stevens Effect isn’t Diebold assisted?
I cannot for the life of me figure out what is wrong with CA-50. The liberal Dem in CA-53 won reelection with nearly 70%, so its not a geographic or cultural thing. CA-50 had Duke Cunningham, who is spending the rest of his pathetic, loser life toiling in a labor camp somewhere unpleasant, and then they had personality-and-issue-free rethug Bilbray, who doesn’t even LIVE in his own district.. only ran there ’cause its the only place he could get elected, since he’d have to run against Davis in CA-53, where he really does live. I don’t know why southern North County does this to themselves. They need to get a clue up there, or we really should consider selling to them to the OC ;-P
i’m more concerned with his dual-citizenship
How do they vote in AK? IIRC there was some electoral hubbub in ‘06 about unreleased vote totals or some such?
Chris Shays is not happy. He’s talking about tsunamis.
)))(((snoopy dance))((((((
AP has Rahm Emanuel has been offered the Chief of Staff position. As Jane pointed out yesterday the choice of such a partisan figure would end the talk about bipartsanship. OTOH Rahm is hostile to progressives and so this is not good news for us either.
BTW a replacement for Obama’s Senate seat could be announced by Rod Blagojevich as early as today around 2:30 ET.
got carried away in one did he?
Hands start a-wringin’! No real good can come of this development.
hehe.. Diebold couldn’t even figure out how to throw Indiana or their home state in OH… put a fork in ‘em
OT and apologies, this is a carry forward from the previous thread:
People…consider a “bug in the ear” campaign. How about writing to Obama and suggesting he consider Hillary Clinton as his first nominee for SCOTUS when a seat opens up? It would be solid on several levels: it would help solidify the connection and support of the Clinton political machine for Obama, it would place an excellent Justice on the Court, and she would be there as long as Roberts or Alito, being in the same age range (and being a woman, probably a bit longer).
ANY nominees that Obama does select need to be NO OLDER than Roberts or Alito (exception Hillary, if she is a wee bit older). Seats need to be filled with LEFT-leaning Justices and they need to be young enough to shut down for as long as possible the ability of future GOPers to drive the Court further right. Young Justices who have internalized 21st century sensibilities and tolerance. Young Justices who will be there a LONG TIME.
Whatcha think?
yeah! Howie!
i should have asked jane this, but maybe someone here knows…. is rahm emanuel really such a partisan or is it more about loyalty and betrayal and less about party or ideology?
There are several out there; One that I know is Fed judge Karen Schreier, Rapid City, SD a late Clinton appointment.
Howie,
You’re a genuine American 21st century hero, and we all owe you our thanks for your courage and foresight.
As I predicted, Diane Benson would have done better against Don Young than did Ethan Berkowitz. Essentially, Berkowitz believed in his pollsters (including Markos Moulitsas) and sat on his butt mostly, for the past nine weeks, trying to not say anything bad about Sarah Palin. Sheesh!
Good news– Adler’s race has been called for him in NJ-03
2010
Howie, you have done a great job and we all appreciate it. I am so delighted about Grayson. Good work !
And some bad news: Vic Wulsin has conceded in OH-02
just want to add my comment to the chorus of thanks to howie
I’m really excited about Grayson too! That one is pure us (and Alan). The DCCC had zero interest in him until he swamped the Establishment hack in the primary. Even then, they treated him like a third rate candidate until the last week, after early voting polls showed he had basically already won. On top of that, he has the potential to be the best member of the House, on a level with Donna and Darcy
Asked about the chances that she would run again for president, she said, “Probably close to zero.” (The question was not predicated on whether Mr. Obama would win or lose on Tuesday.) Supreme Court nominee? “Zero,” she said. “I have no interest in doing that.”
For everybody who donated to the Blue America PAC (rather than just candidates), I want you to know that the bulk of the money went into NC-08 and we absolutely swamped that district with TV ads in the last week– thanks in great part to the most incredible job by Jacquie, who managed to buy ads after the national networks all told her they were sold out!
Thanks Howie ,a job well done!
Long live the blogs!
I think Rahm was discussed extensively this AM on CHS’s thread. Some saw it as a way to neutralize him. I personally loathe him but as Chief of Staff he has to implement the Presidents plan and could be kept busy there.
Lincoln also brought in power players into his inner circle so that he could keep an eye on them. Obama will be his own man as was Lincoln.
Sorry, I forgot the reference.
NY Times article
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....on.html?hp
firedogs, that would be Boss Klein to y’all, ever increasing his control on virtual wards everywhere -lol !
damn Howie, how many so far 14 ? fabulous job !
and now we have yet another cycle under our belts and all it’s yummy data from which to learn.
you were my hero of the night. mwwaaahhh
I did a Senate update at DWT and I’m working on a state legislative post now. Democrats swamped the Republicans in state after state in the state races– and that’s the future (as they taught us in the past!)
That’s too bad. I can’t believe Begich didn’t trounce Stevens either.
Honestly? I feel the same way about Rahm Emmanuel that I do about Joseph Lieberman.
ET
Greetings. How do you see the Steven’s scenario playing out?
lol
Yeah, a big thanks to Boss Klein!
2010 will be a census year and then redistricting. Should be looking significantly at State races in 2010.
I beg you not to call me that. It’s so unsavory– and so far from reality. And if anyone is the boss it’s that Hamsher woman!
OK, Howie. *g*
Sorry, I have to link this little political eulogy on Chris Shays from the National Review.
Oh yes, so sad. Schadenfreude!
They’re feeling for that pulse? Where is it?
I only meant it as snark of endearment. you are the Anti-Pendergast baby, the Anti Pendergast :D
but c’mon, even with my brain still all wired up from last night, I already have an eyeball on your percentages this time - up 50%+ easy. you are also only going to remain stealth to the opposition for maybe one more cycle - although it’ll be fun to watch the abject panic register when they figure out who you are and what you can do - too late saps !
I’m really bummed about Wulsin’s loss. She’s such a good candidate. All through these last few weeks, I kept hoping when Obama appeared in OH [and didn’t he do an appearance in Cincinnati?] he’d bring her up on the stage and encourage folks to vote for her, or at least support her monetarily.
I must say that, despite the euphoria over Obama’s win, I am quite disappointed that Dems didn’t do better in the down-ticket races. I didn’t see Obama offering a “hand up” to these folks either. Perhaps he is too near-sighted to realize how much those 2 or 3 Senate seats or 5-8 House members would help get his desired programs through.
I dunno; I’m just surprisingly down. Having Rahm as the “cherry on the sundae” doesn’t help much either.
I’m pretty disappointed about Wulsin’s loss too. I’ve been sending her little tiny donations for a couple years now.
We can just do what we can do, and try again.
I’ve read the idea has been discussed before and Hillary has said she’s not interested.
Thanks Howie for all you do.
digg
What’s awesome is when you can do it out in open, to their face, and it makes no difference. This time around I think they were probably focused so much on Obama that Howie wasn’t noticed. This time around we also had a great tail wind.