Would a runoff favor Martin or Chambliss? Nate Silver:
It is hard to say which candidate would benefit from a run-off, but the default assumption is probably Saxby Chambliss, who wouldn’t have to contend with an Obama turnout surge then, and who might benefit from an appeal to divided government (assuming that Obama wins the Presidency). Then again, in a world where Obama has prevailed, Democratic morale is likely to be much, much higher than Republican morale, and Democratic wallets are likely to be a bit more open; we could easily see eight figures pumped into a run-off election from each side.
There is a very good chance this could be the 60th seat, particuarly with Franken close.
For anyone looking to have the nerve-shredding over on this coming Tuesday — it may not happen.



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Thanks Jane.
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Because Democrats seldom vote as a bloc, I’m not sure whether even if they get to 60 in the Senate, it will change all that much. Bloc voting is important. It has allowed the Republicans while in the minority to essentially run the Senate and pass a whole string of noxious bills.
Election Craziness. In Mi they ask the guardian to sign a paper on weather or not the patient will be voting. What is the law in Ohio? Guess we have to visit nursing homes?
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs…..-ohio.aspx
machines flipping votes even after “calibrated
everyone must watch that youtube, a video of an actual machine flipping votes, even after “calibration”
notice what “calibration” means, it means they “stick in a cassette”
now excuse me, that looks like any republican ANYONE can steal “recalibrate” the vote if they have that casette
If number 60 depends on a December 3 Georgia vote, the Peach state will be overrun with political operatives from both parties.
D’s need some real leadership to use the seats they’ll gain, even if they get to the magic 60 number. Can anyone imagine Reid and Pelosi herding effectively enough to use a filibuster proof majority?
I agree wholeheartedly. Not sure the blue dogs will be all that part of the faithful!
If the Democrats gain control, there must be an effort to seriously regulate those damn machines. It’s ridiculous in 2008 to have the US elections held hostage to Republic gaming.
It may not matter if we get t 60 – the R’s will be so demoralized they will probably go along with anything.
Oh well, I’m already shell-shocked, what’s a little more? I think I’ll try hibernation this winter, it seems to work for the bears. Prolonged gorging followed by a long nap, emerge svelte and rested in the Spring…
i’m very concerned about Franken.
I think it will help if Obama really does have a bipartisan cabinet. I wonder who he is considering?
Oh, boy! I really wouldn’t count on that!
Heh. Is that snark? ‘Cause I bet they’ll react kind of like a cornered animal. It won’t be pretty.
BTW TPMmuckraker has a nice short summary of Republican voter suppression efforts here:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi…..sion_a.php
I started putting signs on freeways immediately after Bush V. Gore – looks like there’ll be more work to do.
http://freewayblogger.blogspot…..eople.html
at least this time I’ll have some help.
Ye, just like they did after their defeat in the 2006 elections.
They’ll pin all the blame for the nation’s woes on the Dems, as if the Bush junta and his Congressional sycophants had never existed.
Being in the minority will recharge their batteries, not to mention give a boost to conservative talk radio. It’s been a rough 8 years for Rush, blaming everything on the previous administration wore a little thin after the first 5 or 6 years.
if the 60 includes Lieberman, I’ll say “thanks but no thanks” to that bridge to no air.
Joe the Plumber had “other priorities” than being a prop at a McFlameout rally.
I’m thinking 63 is a Real Possibility:
60 – MS Musgrove beats Wicker
61 – KY Lunsford beats McConnell
62 – GA Martin beats Chambliss
63 – MN Franken beats Coleman
And, as for Rasmussen’s Electoral Projection: Obama 364 McCain 174
I’d add Arizona (11) and Indiana (11) for a Landslide:
Obama 386 McCain 152
Also, I see much better performance in the House: Dems 300 Reps 144
FWIW, the Goopers traditionally take Rasmussen to be The Best Case Scenario.
We need to Get Everyone to the Polls on Tuesday!
Yep. Like the depression that they caused, and the wars that they started, and the cities that they let drown. . . It’s all Obama’s fault. He was a Senator. He should have stopped it all!
You’d think by now that McCheese would know how to cover his humiliation a bit better. Lots of practice, don’t you know…
Joe still considers himself a Democrat. He just spells it differently: R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N.
IMO you’re right – the whole “filibuster-proof” issue is a tempest in a teapot. The Rs managed to enforce lock-step voting through bribes (pork) or threats. Both require power, and with a Dem in the White House, the R leadership won’t have enough. Won’t be hard to peel of a few Rs when the need arises.
They won’t have a clear leader (Palin & Joe the P not withstanding), especially if Mitchell loses – I just think they are on a sinking ship and may grap onto the Dems life raft for any sense of relevance.
I sure hope somebody picks up “Zorro and Hamlet Meet Godzilla.” Sounds like a real thriller.
Yes – the unlead will try not to be the undead.
Has anyone considered that if Joe is stripped of his committee assignments (and maybe even if he isn’t), he might actually BECOME a Republican. I’m sure he’ll be courted mightily by their side if the numbers are close.
Joe doesn’t seem honest enough to make that move.
Joe better prepare himself for pariah status!
I hope your wild optimism turns out to be correct. *g*
The Rs might be a little bit nicer to deal with after the election since they must be hearing from the folks back home – especially about the economy. Seems to me that everyone is angry and the Rs are no different.
I’m not clear what you mean, not honest enough to be a Republican? Seems like that bar has been set pretty low.
I’m confused. Is there a third person in this race?
How would one or the other candidate not get 50%+1 in a two person race?
I’m still trying to sell my “Porky’s 2″ meets “Schindler’s List” romantic comedy…
Over 2 million have voted early in FL. Waits as long as 2 1/2 hours have been reported. Local headline on community radio WMNF.
Like Gollum?
Original screenplay or adaptation?
That might do well on stage.
“crush, baby, crush” a la Kos
The Palin/McCain campaign has made a pretty good start at demonizing Obama and the Dem party. That is what most of the GOP and their rabid base will cling to. Remember Vince Foster and all the other deranged rumors that were circulated about the Clintons. Back then the internet had about 1/100th the influence it does now. The attacks will be even uglier this time around.
I say they should hold Lieberman in inherent contempt and lock him away in the basement of the Capitol building.
if recent history is any precedent there may also be litigation/recounts/political hairpulling in close races that could push this out well beyond the first week of December. didn’t it take 3 weeks to resolve a few house races in ‘06
and of course there’s still the 269/269 electoral college tie scenario, although made less likely by the blueness of CO and VA (this is the scenario where we lose all of the battlegrounds but win NV…. in which case Obama might not become president until yearend or even january, we the vice presidency at risk.
Notes toward a screenplay
Zorro: I’m just here to catch a few zs. (He immediately falls asleep for the rest of the movie.)
Hamlet: Alas poor Zorro. I knew him, Horatio, a fellow of infinite jest who seldom got the point but generally got the thrust. How now, methinks, I spy the fair Godzilla, oh lizard in thy oraisons be all my sins remembered!
Godzilla: To squash or not to squash, that is the question. Oh what the hell, squash it is.
Hamlet: Aiyeee! (Splat!)
(Godzilla slips on this bit of Danish, impales itself on the Empire State Building and dies)
Zorro: What? (Waking up, goes over to Godzilla, makes his trademark Z and declares) I have the zed. (Fade out)
I’ve got some different ideas but the mods would come drag me away.
But he also thinks that Chambliss will not get the 50 + 1% necessesary under Georgia law to win the race against Jim Martin, and that it will go into a runoff on December 3.
All of which is extremely good news for Rudy Giuliani :)
In our GOTV effort here we have volunteers ready to hand out water etc to those waiting in line. Can’t get within 100′ of door when wearing buttons or Obama garb
The writers of “Bambi Meets Godzilla” might sue ya.
There is a third candidate named Buckley in the GA Senate race.
we went over 2004 EV totals yesterday. we’re at 90,000 and did 79,000 in ‘04. 37,000 Dems in ‘04. 53,000 this year. So far.
No clothing restrictions here. That got cleared up real quick. Elections staff are handing out water. Disabled have their cars parked for them and are taken right in. The staff are certainly trying to blunt the effect of so few early voting locations. I’m waiting until the 4th. Gonna go soon as the tigers are fed, take a book and hang out. Work will still be there when I get there.
There’s a Liberaterian – Allen Buckley, currently drawing between 3 and 6 points.
for being inherently worthy of our contempt, or do we have some
specific charges in mind?
They won’t have anything to lose. “Scrappy” will be their new cute li’l name. Think of cornered rats.
Rats who want you to die young without health care.
No mercy for Republicans. None!
Work will still be there when I get there.
fer some reason my wife doesn’t like it when I take that attitude. The voting hasn’t had problems here to speak of. Counting the votes is the big thing.
I say we make his party swap a foregone conclusion by throwing him out on his patotie. why stop at stripping him of his seniority. the dems should have one of those 50s style fraternity blackballing parties, culminating in his being stripped of his party membership. we could call it a “No Tent is Big Enough For You, Shitehead” party.
My tigers won’t even answer the phone, much less clean the place or do laundry so they got no gripe.
Blue Texan upstairs!
George Will Compares Selection Of Sarah Palin To Iraq War
All the rats I know are Socialists.
the former
This 60 number stuff bothers me alot. It’s significant only because the boys club that is called the Senate decided they would honour a threat to filibuster, but not call the bluff. I say, call the bloody bluff. Make those superannuated reactionaries stand there a talk for hours until they can’t hold their pee. I’m still pissed as hell at the way Reid treated Dodd on FISA. He can for crissake do the same to the Republiks if they get obstructionist.
Pretty reminiscent of the Star Trek episode wherein people surrendered themselves to be killed so that the society didn’t have to go thru the trauma and/or destruction of war! Counterproductive!
They do un-official vote counts. If Reid (and Durbin and the rest of the leadership) thought they could reach the cloture number for these bills, they would be voting.
There is no filibuster left in the old time tradition of the word. The change was made in the late ’60s/early ’70s when the cloture cut-off number was lowered from 67 votes (2/3) to 60.
What they’re fighting is the vote for cloture. And they’ve been doing it solidly, for the last 2 years, nearly non-stop.
Martin wins the runoff.
If/When the focus of the whole nation is on this race it will be like bright rays of sunshine landing Dracula.
What Chambliss did to Max Cleland is still not known/understood by most Americans. In a runoff with the 60 vote Senate at stake Martin could wind up raising 50 million bucks easily….or more.
Chambliss is a real evil doer and must be punished.
Anyone who would vote for Chambliss, knowing what an unmitigated p.o.s. he his, needs to be ashamed of themselves.