I’m not quite as sanguine as Jamie is about the long term financial shape of the US government, nor do I entirely agree with what appear to be his policy prescriptions (more on that in a bit), but I certainly do agree that Walker’s full of it. The US government has pledged about 5 trillion dollars in the last year to bail out the financial crisis. A lot of this money it will get back, but even so, 5 trillion is, well, real money, nor is there any particular reason to believe more money won’t be needed (in fact there is every reason to believe it will be.)
For all intents and purposes all of that money is going to rich people. It is all going to the financial sector to bail out people who paid themselves billions and billions of dollars of bonuses and salaries, who continue to do so, who have no shame, and who, while paying themselves that much money. destroyed the world financial system and are taking the world economy into a very very bad recession as a result.
And Walker wants the government, now that it has bailed out the rich, to stop there and not help the real economy significantly? Put aside the economics for a moment (which say that the government must spend or it risks an even worse economic recession) think about the fairness—the rich, having had their huge salaries are now being bailed out and are not being asked to pay for their own bailout with, say, a huge surtax on salaries over a million or a financial transactions tax, or even meaningful pay limits going forward.
But now, now that they’ve been bailed out with 5 trillion dollars, which they are still using to pay themselves bonuses for making no money at all for the past 4 years (yes, losses now exceed all the banks earnings in the past 4 years), ordinary people should not just pay the cost of the bailout but should get no money for the real economy either?
Let’s be clear, these 3 paragraphs from Galbraith worry me:
Not only that, sustained fiscal expansion (I dislike the term "stimulus" because I do not think that a short-term policy will work) will be essential in the next administration if the financial rescue just undertaken is to succeed. It will be necessary to stabilize the housing sector. It will be necessary to stabilize state and local government spending, undercut by falling property tax revenues. It will be necessary to stabilize the incomes and expenditures, in the aggregate, of the elderly. It will be necessary to finance new capital spending at the federal, state and local levels.
Failure to do this will cause the housing crisis to get worse. And that will cause the losses in the financial sector to multiply, overwhelming all efforts to stabilize finance.
I was at the Peterson Institute the other day. There I heard a very good panel discussion of the financial crisis, featuring Fred Bergsten, Adam Posen, Morris Goldstein and others. All agreed that the deficit would exceed one trillion dollars next year. All agreed on the need for the expansionary and stabilizing steps outlined above. Nobody was defending, in any serious way, the Walker-Steuerle line.
Galbraith is exactly right that if the economy keeps getting worse, the financial sector keeps getting worse, and the financial sector bailout fails. But the second paragraph worries me. It’s not that Galbraith’s wrong about most of this, he’s right. The Federal government is going to have to step in and stabilize spending. It’s going to have to more than stabilize spending.
But what it must not do is stabilize housing prices above the level they would have been without a property bubble. Because here’s the thing, all the money borrowed will have to be paid back (or more accurately, rolled over) at some point. While it won’t be the full 5 trillion, or 8 trillion, or whatever the final bill is, it’s still going to be a few trillion at the end of the day. And it’s not going to be financed forever at the concessionary 3 month rates the US is getting right now during the flight to safety. Long term rates are still high, and short term rates are, well, short term.
If that money is going to be paid back, there will need to be real economic growth in the US which translates into taxes. Ironically, since the US refuses to substantially increase taxes on the rich (yes, Obama has some minor tax increases on the rich, they are minor) that means it’s mostly going to be paid off by ordinary people and therefore their income and disposable income will need to increase. If housing prices don’t fall, and if mortgage payments don’t fall, either by the brute method of people walking away from their houses or from the better method of buying up mortgages at a discount and resetting them to term mortgages at more realistic face values, then Americans are not going to have significant disposable income for consumption or investment in the future (aka. savings). Take a look at the chart on the left, showing GDP before and after home equity withdrawals. Even after ‘stabilizing’ there isn’t going to be a new housing bubble. Where is discretionary spending going to come from? Where are savings going to come from? Is the rest of the world going to lend the US money forever at concessionary rates so the US can spend that money? Is there a real prospect of broadly rising wages for ordinary people which will make the burden of high mortgage payments lighter?
The US economy needs a restructuring. Propping the real-estate market up at an unrealistic level makes that restructuring much harder, in fact, probably impossible. A way to allow the market to decline needs to be found. Yes, Galbraith is right, collapsing housing prices make stabilizing the financial markets harder. But there are ways, such as a mortgage cram down, to do it. And more to the point, if you’re printing money anyway, you might as well print money to do it right. At the point where we’ve committed 5 trillion dollars, what’s another 2 or 3 to do it right, so the economy can grow again—so that people have money they can spend, so that housing is affordable to people who aren’t on the treadmill already?
As for Walker, he’s not wrong to be concerned about how the debt and deficit will be paid. He knows, as do I, that the US is completely dependent on the self-interest of other countries to be able to continue to finance itself. The second China or Japan or the Arabs decide to really cut the US off, is the day of reckoning. But since it’s too late to stop that dependence, since it already exists and just cannot be fixed right now short of crashing the US economy into a depression, or engaging in deliberate inflation which could lead to hyperinflation, well the goal is no longer to manage the headline numbers of debt and deficit, the goal is to restructure the economy so that it can start paying those numbers down and end the dependence. And that, perverse as it is, is going to require borrowing (or printing) even more money. Sometimes when you’re in a hole, it’s so deep that the only way to get out isn’t to stop digging, it’s to dig your way out. That, sadly, is where we are now.
So Walker is just wrong at this point. Wrong on the economics, where his plan will make things worse rather than better, and wrong on the morality, which says that bailing out Wall Street and refusing to help ordinary people is deeply immoral. Suggesting cuts in health care and social security after giving bankers trillions is so deeply wrong it borders on evil.



39 Comments












Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Ian:
What happened to Walker? He was pretty decent when he was working for the Gov’t. Maybe he was hiding it until Petersen employed him. Or maybe it took the financial crisis to really expose Walker. Either way, Petersen is the lowest of scum.
I believe that it was paulson that said that if any strictures, such as salary limits or taxing the pay of the ceo group, were placed on the money that was to be poured down this rat hole, the bankers and business leaders would not agree to take the money. So what could be done except to give in to the business leaders since they were in a position of strength.
Suggesting cuts in health care and social security after giving bankers trillions is so deeply wrong it borders on evil.
So?
Galbraith is right about those Pete Peterson fuckers — they were awfully quiet while the banking crisis was looming:
The Peterson bullshit will be used as a justification for the Blue Dogs and insurance companies to go all “pay-go” and block meaningful healthcare reform.
Stupid or evil, it’s hard to tell.
may i suggest both?
The next shoe do drop right on the heads of the working class.
Something is going to give eventually, after all, one single straw broke the camels back.
what walker is talking about sound just like the prescription the imf gave countries in trouble in the ’90s – and every time it either made a recession worse or a bad recession into a depression. i’d seriously like to know how many people died because of bullshit “advice” like that.
there’s a great stiglitz quote on this, i’ll go see if i can find it.
Thanks Ian.
digg
OT – but as if anyone really needed another reason to hate Pat Buchanan, he just came out on a special Sunday night Hardball and flat out said that Powell’s endorsement was only because Obama is black.
yo, MSNBC, can you fire him *now*, please?
“the IMF riot”
a small part of it, from palast, in 2001: The Globalizer Who Came In From the Cold
my bold
A pattern emerges.
Shock Doctrine pattern.
I wanna see if KO will make Buchanan one of tomorrow’s Worst Persons
I’m going to flourish in the coming year, I’m opening up a chain of Torch-n-Pitchfork stores…
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the ultra-rich are TRYING to destroy America. Look at the collapse of the Soviet Union and how the wealthy became plutocrats. Imagine Sarah Palin as the Queen of the Nation of Alaska (or “Aliaskia” in her parlance).
Or just extrapolate the Naomi Klein’s ‘Shock Doctrine’ to its logical extreme.
The rich are plundering the ship as it sinks.
I wanna see if he’s on Rachel’s show, and if he’ll try that line in front of her. I hope so – she’ll rip his lips off.
ding, ding ding!!!
The IMF should be re named the UFIA.
( Uninvited Finger In Ass)
H/T Fark.com
not extreme. this is what has happened in country after country. it’s been done by our elites (bipartisan all the way) and now it looks like they trying it here.
the only differences are that they are bringing it home, and that we’ve had a very mild version so far. but it looks like there’s going to be an attempt to go all the way.
What else can be expected of sociopaths?
don’t know… but one thing i think needs to be stated up front: when this was being done to all the other countries? it was the clinton administration doing it.
i say this not to give people grief, but as fair warning about what we should expect from the neoliberals. they are not our friends.
I’ve never been a big fan of the Clintons – people who are tight with the Rothchild’s can’t be real progressives – just a fact.
As long as the underlying problems which caused the housing bubble and financial meltdown remain unaddressed, all this money, huge though it is, will be wasted and the final price tag will only increase. And I should emphasize again that not one of them has been addressed: distressed homeowners, bank insolvency, deregulation, and derivatives. Trillions have either been spent or are committed but so far for nothing, except for the increasingly dubious strategy of kicking this disaster down the road and into the next Administration.
I can’t remember who it was, but someone on MSNBC said Buchanan’s idea of a fun evening was to rent “Roots” and play it backwards.
Kinda funny, but probably kinda true.
Now that’s funny!
Please sell maps to Phil Gramm’s house, as well.
See my comment at 18.
indeed there appears to be a real reluctance to do so.
Ramblings
The United States Federal tax system needs to be over hauled. We need to look at all those non profit organizations, political organizations and religious mega churches who have now become an arm of political organizations. Before we look at changing Social Security. Lets look at the Federal tax system.
Too many people making hundreds of thousands of dollars leave political offices and open non profit organizations. We need to discuss the lost tax dollars here. We all have been going over our budgets and making sacrifices at home. Now the Federal government needs to have people go over it’s budget.With our country in the shit kicker we need to do this quickly, like starting Jan 21, 2008.
About the US economy’s is in the shit house and it’s the average citizens fault is bull shit! I am so tired of it’s your fault because you don’t save money in bank accounts and you mortgaged more than you can afford and charge more than you need. Bull shit!
We did save money. We worked and we paid our taxes. We paid taxes on our earnings. We paid taxes on interest. We saved money in saving accounts, bonds, CD’s just like our parents did. Then LobbyistCongressPresidents made new laws and taxed our interest in those saving accounts.
Then we were InticedBrainwashed that Social Security was going to go broke and we needed to put our money from our savings accounts into retirement accounts and investment accounts and later college accounts to avoid more new taxes that LobbyistCongressPresidents had put into laws.
These investments accounts would later charge large fees if we wanted or needed to withdraw our own money before we reached retirement age. And LobbyistCongressPresidents made more new laws and raised the amount of taxes on those accounts. And later financial institutions would move to states with lax laws on the books so they could become loan sharks with our mortgage interest rates and fees from our credit card holders and Payday loans. And soon they became the new loan sharks on the block, legally. At this point LobbyistCongressPresidents does not make any new laws to protect it’s citizens from those banking thieves.
Twice in the past 10 years the stock market has crashed and our savings were gambled away. When the banks closed during the 1930’s our parents and grandparents put their savings under their mattresses. No CEO, who is only one individual, should ever make 1,000 and more times then the workers doing the actual work in a company make. How much better our country would be served if workers got paid better. You could collect more taxes, that should make you happy campers. Clearly the huge difference of wages between the CEO”S and board members and employees has helped get us into this financial crisis.
We have been forced into debt because of greedy financial institutions leaders decisions and board members decisions and LobbyistCongressPresidents laws and their tax laws. People made these decisions in making mortgage rates and credit card companies and pay loan companies rates and fees so high. People in those companies have responsibility and accountability. We should call them loan sharks and throw them in jail.
The past 8 years of higher prices of gas, heating oil, electricity, high health care rates, high (gov enforced) car insurance rates, high (gov enforced) mortgage home owners insurance rates, loan shark Pay loan institutions, allowing charge card companies to charge interest rates depending on weather we paid our electric or water bills a few days late, etc is part of the reason we don’t have much in savings now and why we have charged so much on our credit cards. I believe it was in the republican controlled LobbyistCongressPresidents controll that made new laws that made it more difficult to go bankrupt. They said screw you again to it’s citizens.
Many people lost their money before the market crashed and they may never know it. There money was gambled away on nothing but weather the stock price of a company would go up or down. Not even a product just a prediction. We the people didn’t know these companies had found another way to steal our money by overcharging us with the money we borrowed so they could literally gamble huge amounts of our money.
The poor have been hurt the most in all of this. If you are listed at poverty level then interest rates and fees should be lower not higher. You tax them at a lower rate because they are poor and then companies turn around and have higher interest rates because the are poor and have bad credit. Shameful! Something about charging the poorest people higher fees just doesn’t seem right.
What have we learned? The tax system should be completely overhauled. We pay too much in taxes to the Federal government and they start wars and that gives their friends millions with non bidding contracts. It is just a way for the Federal gov to make wealthfare for the wealthy rather than welfare for the poor. And State governments are going broke because the Federal gov takes so many tax dollars and do not put them back into our own states. Schools are closing. People are thrown out of their houses and living in their cars.
I posted parts of a very informative article and I hear oil, oil, oil, gulf region. I recently read US Nellis air force base having the large Federally tax funded solar powered system and I wasn’t aware of it till 2 days ago. Did they build the bases in Iraq and Afghanistan solar powered, wind, geothermal powered? Are our military bases here in the US being converted over to clean renewable energy? Did the Federal Gov give any money to states to build schools with clean renewable energy. If not, why not? All that money for war and more war to hold power over a region that has oil when we could have spent the $650 billion on clean renewable energy technologies and research in our country?
The market wouldn’t have crashed, our retirement and college accounts wouldn’t be broke and we would have had cheaper energy costs along with many new enviromentally safe jobs.
I said before clean renewable energy will get us out of this recession that bush caused on purpose. With all that military money going instead into clean renewable energy oh my goodness, the new advances we could have made in the last 8 years with electric cars, solar, wind, etc.
All that money on war………argggggggg
From wiki on Nellis Air Force Base
]
The silver lining in this black cloud that has become our economy is that people are waking up to the reality of income distribution and political power. A lot of us forgot, especially those of us who are economists, and who focused on economic growth (which we thought was the ‘big thing’ that really mattered), or if we were anally retentive, focused on efficiency (those little Harberger triangles). People are now seeing how the economy really works.
It took me a long time to see this. It must have been only towards the turn of this century that I began to get a grip on how badly the distribution of income had been tipped against people like me. To his credit (once again), Paul Krugman told me in the late ’70s that he thought income distribution was still a real issue worth thinking about. That’s why he’s a Nobel and I’m not. I only saw it when I saw assholes with MBA’s drawing 7 figure bonuses.
This brings me to Joe the Plumber. I have been trying to get my mind around the phenomenon of poor whites not from the South voting against their economnic interest. I think it might be the casino mentality. Adam Smith wrote about it. People think they are luckier than they are. Joe thinks he’s going to strike it rich, and doesn’t want the government to tax his lucky strike. That he has about as much chance of making it in the plumbing (or any other competitive) business as he does with the one-arm bandit hasn’t dawned on him. He’s going to be poor the rest of his life, unless he takes to pimping, and that’s a dangerous trade.
It’s a shell game. We’ve all been conned in one degree or another.
yes.
and one of the cons is that the dems don’t represent the working class anymore. this was apparent during clinton’s presidency (i don’t know about before that) and it certainly is the case now.
one of the problems with accusing people of voting against their economic interests is that they have to have an alternative that does represent their interests. and right now there isn’t one.
Here’s the link. This book may have already been discussed here but it is new to me. Lots of good info here.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/jour…..ript1.html
Ian, are we 100% sure there is a financial crisis? Don’t we have to see the books to know for sure. And the WH owns the bookkeeping books now. The Bush adm has been known to put out false reports before. Why should we take their word for it?
You are far too modest in your proposals, Ian. I would suggest tripling the capital gains and dividend taxes, eliminating the cap on payroll taxes, raising the inheritance tax to 50% on estates over $1 million and 90% on estates over $5 million, denying corporate tax deductions for executive compensation in excess of $250,000 total, and raising the maximum income tax rate to 50% on incomes over $250,000. (Oh, and let’s nationalize Walker’s “think tank”). Let the bastards eat cake.
We won’t get change as long as the republicans are successful at blaming the victim, my Oxdown diary.
Oh, thanks. Now I’ve “wasted” half an hour and I have a headache.
Democracy rests on the proposition that its fate lies in the hands of its citizens. Too many people wave off these heavy duty think pieces and throw up their hands. Well, dammit, democracy is hard work. And if you don’t like it, someone will be glad to hand you some fascism.
Shorter Bacevich: We have met the enemy, and he are us.
Bob in HI
After WWII there was a move to “free the world for Democracy and Capitalism”. In short, they had to be free to do business everywhere and not just in the United States. There was the beginning of this in many countries during the Carter administration (late ’70s). It expanded after the fall of the Soviet Union. A great expansion in world wide trade began and NAFTA was their flagship legislation on the matter.
What happened after that is quite interesting.
They began to ’ship jobs overseas’ and pay lower wages to those workers, import the goods here and charge perhaps slightly lower prices, but still close to what it had been before.
The upshot of this is that they began to make tremendous profits as one always does when you can manufacture cheap and sell at high prices relative to cost.
But, they also eliminated some very good paying jobs for Americans, so for many Americans their incomes dropped by about half. Now you have a couple working 2 or 3 jobs to make the income one man (usually) did before 1980. And, with the lower incomes they began to use credit cards more and to slowly sink into debt. The 1980s saw a lot of violence and depression because people lost jobs by the tens of thousands and their pensions went out the window.
With lower wages Americans were on the precipice and some were falling off the edge (being pushed really).
Now what do we have?
All that wealth which had previously been created by American workers has been going into the pockets of Wall Street and typical Americans finally being pushed over the edge because of bad mortgages. Worse yet, there are people who found a way to gain advantage, to make money by pushing them over.
This all has created the largest transfer of wealth from the working class to the uber-Rich that has ever occurred in history. Yet the Rich beg for help from the government and perhaps threaten to stop the economy if they don’t get it while keeping their golden parachutes.
So, fixing the credit crisis is essential to keep things going. But, more than that, the trend before the crisis was for more and more personal failures and more credit card disasters and bankruptcies. That means we need what Barack Obama and Joe Biden are calling for…a rebuilding of the middle class and an end to the huge unhealthy(!) wealth redistribution to the wealthy, the one John McCain wants to continue by renewing the Bush tax cuts to the rich.
Not only can we not afford John McCain, but to allow him to continue the wealth distribution will by force destroy our economy. It’s inevitable.
There must be enough money in the real economy for people to buy the goods they need and deserve. We cannot let the Rich tell us we don’t deserve a better standard of living and that we need to get a home equity loan to become enslaved to them.
They’re stripping America of it’s wealth while paying workers much less.
To fix these problems we need Obama-Biden AND we need the international trade revolution to somehow work while not destroying us. We need CHANGE.
I don’t know how much of the new financial industry wealth is strictly related to their work on international trade. But, one fundamental which must be adhered to is that new wealth has to reflect real production, real wealth. Another, as I said, is that Americans must produce and be rewarded to enjoy the high standard of living we deserve. Another is that we DO want to expand international trade for everyone’s benefit. If it’s done right Americans will benefit more and more.
We need to know what the reality is with regard to Wall Street profits and fraud. How much was real and related to international trade and how much was just gimmickry?
We need to know how to grow the domestic economy and how to raise American wages (again).
And we need to know how to integrate the world economy sufficiently to benefit everyone while making it more possible to regulate and contain problems (like this recent crisis).
We need CHANGE.
I can’t tell if your call for Obama-Biden is satire or not?
Other than in rhetoric, where is this portrait of this staunch and capable reformer of establishments and reframer of debates?
FISA? Bailout? 233% more money from the financial sector than even Mr. McLobbyist?
You’re right that we need “CHANGE”, but on the Obama ticket it’s branding, and on the McCain ticket it’s bullshit.
October 18, 2008
More W.Va. voters say machines are switching votes
In six cases, Democratic votes flipped to GOP
http://www.sundaygazettemail.com/News/200810180251
We could start with clean renewable energy union workers. Do they have a union now? If not lets get it started. All those new jobs should be union workers.
They should be fairly paid and respected workers, regardless of whether or not they’re in a union.
It seems somehow antithetical to progress to bar companies from participation who don’t have union workers because they’ve made it part of their corporate edict to treat their employees fair and good; such that they haven’t seen fit to unionize against their management.
Thank you, selise, for your post and the link to Greg Palast’s interview with Joseph Stiglitz.
Palast’s column, IMO, runs in total agreement with the book and video, CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HIT MAN by John Perkins, copyright 2004 and the book’s sequel, THE SECRET HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE, copyright 2007.
These references have given me a clearer understanding of America’s meddling into South America’s problems, our relationship with Saudi Arabia, the real reason we are in Iraq (EHM failed to seduce Saddam and the Jackals failed to assassinate him so military brought in), etc.
They also opened my eyes as to the real operations behind the masks of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization.
After I watched Paulson’s conduct at the Senate hearings I could not keep from thinking: Is he the biggest Economic Hit Man of all??
Ian, another fine article! I would love to see you write on the two books I reference above.
To see the video just Google: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man