I can't think of any way to sugar coat this, I'm afraid. It's a bad bill and it isn't just that Barack Obama voted for it, it's that everything I'm hearing from the Hill says that he's been actively whipping it, not just in the Senate but in the House. Barack didn't hold his nose and vote for this, he made it his bill as much as it is Paulson's.
With this bill go your chances of having, say, universal health care, or massive infrastructure development, or really getting the US of its dependence on foreign oil, or really rebuilding America's school system—or whatever other big, expensive project you thought Obama was promising. 700 billion is a lot of money, and in the end this is almost certainly going to cost even more than that. Probably at least 1.5 trillion. (The technical term, I believe, is 'good money after bad').
As Michael Moore points out, the richest 400 people in America, who own as much as 150 million Americans, coincidentally saw their net worth increase by, oh, 700 billion during Bush's reign. They got that money largely based on government largesse and private fraud aided by deregulatory administration officials. And they don't intend to give it back to pay for the mess that they and the people who, in effect, work for them, have created.
Instead, as usual, it's the middle class that gets to pay. And it's Barack Obama who turned to Nancy Pelosi and Reid and said "this bill must pass". It's Obama who is whipping votes and bending arms for this despite the fact that it is massively unpopular. This is Obama's bill.
I assume he's willing to give up the 700 billion for the near dictatorial power over the US economy which is still embedded in the bill, power which he will wield through his Treasury Secretary. Or maybe, encouraged by his economic advisers, almost all of whom were amongst the architects and cheerleaders of the policies which made this crisis occur, he really believes that bailing out the rich with middle class money is how the country has to operate. After all, some people are important and some people aren't, and since the middle class can vote for him or for a man who has made himself into a national joke with Sarah Palin as the punchline, what are they going to do? Vote for John McCain, the laughingstock, who was also for the bill he was against, or some such?
If this bill doesn't work, or even if it does, it will have a huge cost and that cost will be born by the middle class. Even if you think it will work, not adding surcharges to make the rich pay for their own bailout is unconscionable.
Americans are being robbed, reverse Robin Hood style. Take money from ordinary folks, hand it directly to the rich. That's Obama's first real act as the presumptive President and as the Democratic party's de-facto leader.
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I just got home. How did Bernie Sanders’ voice vote go?
With this bill go your chances of having, say, universal health care, or massive infrastructure development, or really getting the US of its dependence on foreign oil, or really rebuilding America’s school system—or whatever other big, expensive project you thought Obama was promising
So your next post will be about how Americans can move to Canada and get healthcare?
Did you mean 150,000?
Clearly a typo
As Michael Moore points out, the richest 400 people in America, who own as much as 150 Americans, coincidentally saw their net worth increase by, oh, 700 billion during Bush’s reign.
Does it mean 150 million Americans?
woops, lol, thanks.
I am suspending judgement until I see a more detailed account of the provisions of the bill. But I am just a little suspicious.
I ‘believe’ Ian means one hundred and fifty MILLION … people.
Will the world market players buy this pig or will they walk away from investing in America?
One voice, Sanders’, for; all others opposed.
Obama doesn’t seem very inclined to take into account the wishes of the citizenry, does he?
Anyone want to tell me what happened with Bernie’s amendment to add a tax?
And here last night, I was saying that Obama was no progressive. Don’t I feel silly.
Thank you. That’s disgusting.
sigh
He wasn’t allowed a roll call vote; tells you all you really need to know about it passing.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Bailout Bill To Make Money Market Liquidity Crunch Worse?
Boy, I wish I had thought of this, and why no one else save some smart readers have focused on the mechanics of the Paulson plan operations is beyond me. This bill is moving ahead like the Titanic…..with high odds of similar outcomes.
Hoisted from comments, we turn the mike over to reader Don:
The bailout, I mean rescue plan, can be seen as nothing less than a new Ponzi scheme. It works like this:
Fed as only lender, in an attempt to keep the financial system from imploding;
TARP needed to keep Fed balance sheet intact so that it can continue as only lender;
Treasury will need to significantly increase the amount of Ts (public money) auctioned to fund TARP;
Panic serves to encourage T. buyers, especially for bills;
This represents a liquidity trap: TARP recipients of Ts will hoard cash to buy Ts: rinse and repeat.
This results in drying up of lending to corporations/crowding out private capital - no new credit lines;
The Fed becomes a holder of private capital, the later of which is now frozen to protect that capital from deteriorating, The rollover scheme will restrict even more lending in the private sphere for purposes of keeping the financial sphere on life support, but with the consequence of furthering the deterioration of the ‘real’ economy.
The counterargument is that the TARP will end the fear, breaking the Treasury-hoarding. But with banks (presumably) able to use the new phony prices paid by the TARP as marks for asset valuation purposes (whether they sold to the TARP or not), you get less transparency and hence less faith in bank balance sheets.
Further remarks from reader FairEconomist:
My thoughts exactly, Don. Plus the durations target the drawdown precisely on the capital we need most. We’re desperately short of 3 month working capital, and here comes Paulson to take $700 BB of what we’ve got left away and dump it in the mortgage industry. I don’t think you could devise a worse plan. We might be better of if he *did* steal it.
Informed reader comment very much appreciated.
Who besides the government will ever buy American homeloans America cannot keep buying bad loans at face value. But how can the banks make money like they used to without buyers?
I do not see the world markets rushing to buy American home loans after being burned like they were.
He will get what he deserves. If Paulson and gang are stealing this money, and all indications are that they are:
This could be the nail in the Dems coffin.
I am talking 3rd party all the way.
What will the Dems have to offer us after this? Seriously?
Answer: Nothing.
Republican lite is BS. If he is a DINO, he is a failed one term president on day one.
I am thinking about voting for Bobb Barr.
Neither of them can tell the fuckin’ truth. Both are gonna be telling how much this piece of shit is going to help the middle class. I guess there is no working class anymore. Just us poor fucks.
Hi DW, long time no catch. 150M? JHFC, that’s half the country. I want some of my stuff back.
urgh, finally corrected. Sorry. Brain clearly not fully functional.
obama has proven to us, with this bill, with fisa, he is a judas sheep
we are not sheep…he will be a one term president and with our help getting real democrats elected, he will be lame
SCOTUS
It has been fixed to 150,000 Americans, but I don’t get the math.
Bill Gates is worth about $50 billion, you divide that by 150,000 people and you get $333,333 per person. And that is not the richest 400, that is just one.
epu’d
cspan is now giving the final vote as 74 to 25. will need to refer to official roll call for final total. will be listed here shortly.
“no” votes - grabbed from the cspan graphic (so must be considered as tentative):
sanders
sessions
shelby
stabenow
tester
vitter
wicker
wyden
allard
barrasso
cantwell
bunning
brownbeck
cochran
crapo
demint
dole
dorgan
enzi
feingold
inhofe
johnson
landrieu
nelson (bill, fl)
roberts
kennedy did not vote.
He was always going to vote for it, he said he was going to vote for it, he voted for it. Get over it.
This feels like the FISA dance. It’s really disgusting. I hate what this country has become.
So yeah, no more writing for me tonight. 150 million Americans. ie. about half the population.
Jimmy Carter failed Presidency the sequel.
He voted for telco-immunity too. Obama is apparently a master at cementing identity politics. He hornswoggled so many people during the primary into thinking he was a reform and civil-liberties candidate, and now he’s reaping the dividends.
People will still vote for him despite the fact that he just sold all his supporters right down the river.
Just curious why you wouldn’t consider Cynthia McKinney?
If McSFB wasn’t running and the Supreme Court wasn’t in the back of my mind all the time I’d vote for Brian Moore of the Florida Socialist Party.
Ian, I am so very confused. My questions include but are not necessarily limited to the following:
1) Assuming that the Senate bill or something like it passes the house, how does the $700BB (still a number picked out of thin air AFAIK) of authorized expenditures relate to the $660BB that the Treasury announced the other day that it’d invent, as in by printing it? Does it mean we won’t lose any net Treasury funds, and just pay for it in inflation?
2) If nobody thinks the Senate bill is going to actually fix anything fundamental and merely (or should I say at best) ease interbank lending liquidity, then why isn’t anybody in Congress or the Administration talking about how they’re going to have to come back and ask for still more money before too long? If folks are pissed now, they’ll be three times as pissed when that happens.
3) In the alternative, if anybody does think the Senate bill is going to fix some significant part of the underlying economic system problems, then why hasn’t anybody said so and clearly explained how? (Wait, I think I know the answer to this one.)
4) Can you interpret for us how Section 128 (which appears to allow banks to operate with zero reserves — for the first time?!?) relates to the rest of the scheme?
5) This guy thinks this is all a setup to allow Hank to do what he has always really wanted to do, which is not, as advertised, to buy bad debt off of US banks and backed by US properties, but rather to send the money to foreign banks and buy their troubled mortgages and mortgage-based securities backed by non-US properties. Do you have any information, or a view, on this angle?
I’ll probably think of more if I can just reduce my rate of fuming down to a rolling boil…
What will Paulson’s ROI (Return on Investment) be on the $700 billion?
Can the House do things to insure transparency so that we can see the vintage, FICO, zip code, … on mortgages that make up these securities? That’s a must to stay on Paulson.
most politicians have to wait until after the election to do that.
i have nothing to say but….keep those printers printing and get awheel barrow
Can’t believe both my congress critters got it right for once.
Need to thank them for the no votes.
That’s sort of the point isn’t it.
He’s not just voting for it, he’s been whipping it. And no, I’m not getting over it. I was willing to forgive (not forget, but forgive) FISA, this is a mile too far. I’m not sure how many betrayals others are willing to forgive, but this is the one that finishes me. I’ll support him over McCain, but he is effectively a moderate Republican at heart and I will be in opposition the day after the election, because he clearly cannot be trusted to do the right thing unless his ass is in the fire.
I will also predict right now that he is a one term president. He will be lucky to not be impeached in 2011 by the Republicans when they take control of the house, which he has made virtually certain of these last two weeks. Because no, this isn’t going to work, but it is going to cost a lot of money to not work.
Harry Reid now slathering over his wonderful colleague Mitch McConnell in press conference. Bruce Lunsford must be loving this.
I can’t remember a time when I was so depressed about —everything!
tax cuts! fucking tax cuts! these guys are nuts.
Yeah I know. I am just pissed off.
Ok will vote for Obama until supreme court is settled.
i can not gofor another OBAMA SLAMORAMA evening again…no can do
Reid is getting all teary. He better cry. We’re gonna throw the bastards out. In 10 if not in 08.
I don’t think anyone should have had any expectation that Senator Obama would vote against this bill. Unlike FISA.
Yea, the last straw.
Great the House is our last hope to kill this pig.
MSNBC reporting that Obama and Biden both voted for it.
Can anyone confirm with 100% certainty that McCain did vote for it?
McSFB…hiya….what is the acronym?
McConnell sez that the pols can all come together to screw the voters 5 weeks before an election. Yeah, they planned it that way, so we wouldn’t have time to work on alternatives.
Does it go straight to conference committee? Or does the House have to vote?
now the gratuitous back slapping
Never mind that the economy is going to tank right when the baby boomers retire and need there Social Security.
Johnny Cash was once asked if he was a hawk. He replied, “No, I’m a dove. With claws.”
Chris Dodd thanks the academy..
Good question if its a conference committee its Nancy and its over.
The economy is in freefall, according to purchasing managers report this morning. On Friday you’ll see it show up in the unemployment report.
1) The two are unrelated, but the bill has a provision (last I checked, which was the pre-Senate version) for a 1.3 trillion debt cap increase. Bernanke needs that because he has blown past his balance sheet and needs treasury to sell bonds for him to expand it. However they are two seperate expenditures.
2) Get the the election, then they can vote more money next year when people aren’t looking the electorate in the face. And I’m sure many of them do think it’ll work.
3) Ummmmmmm. They have sort of, it’s Hooverism. “This will restore confidence and confidence is the problem.”
4) At this point I’m not 100% sure. Textbooks say that lending is constrained by reserves, but I’m hearing from a couple people that this isn’t really true anymore and that reserves are actually about book value. How this works, I’m damned if I know, looking into it.
5) A lot of it is making Arab and Chinese debts good, yes. That’s why foreign entities can use the facilities. The Arabs and Chinese have been telling the US that they make it good, or they get cut off.
Re: your number 5 buying assets from foreign institutions.
I have read on some blogs speculation that the foreign governments and banks may go after the US institutions that sold the toxic waste. They might go after them because of the misrepresentation that the assets were safe AAA rated and good buys.
This may be part of it. Protecting the US banks from being sued for fraud. Probably some of the principals might go to jail if it were proven. Hmm…Paulson used to be a principal. Might be a little CYA on his part.
Dodd is proud to be a whore.
yea CONGRESS 10% favorability
Yea, and he walked on water around here when he fought fisa. Waaaaaaaa!
mccain voted for it. saunders voted against it (i guess his amendment got shit-canned).
And you know what’s funny, Southern Dragon?
‘We’ outnumber ‘them’ hugely.
What does that say?
Perhaps, in an ostensible ‘democracy’, the proper question is this: Why do we, “the People”, put up with this farcical and destructive behavior?
There is only one germaine answer.
FEAR.
Sloth, disinterest and craven stupity can only ‘explain’ just so much.
While edja-kayshun might help a mite, seems as though the general populace suffers from what ails the dems, theirownselves, they are so frightened, their spines just dissolved. Of course it helps a bit that the Political Class is invited to dine with the Ruling Class often enough so the Political Class has figured out which side their bread is buttered on.
Now the folks, well they don’t git invited nowheres except to vote and send money to the Political Class so that ‘change’ can audaciously happen.
Two thoughts:
Damn innerestin’ times.
And, quoting a fine, notable southern gentleman: “No war but class war, now!!!”
;~D
Reid is up in 2010. I think he should tend his homefires in Nevada, and run hard for re-election. I also think being Majority Leader will be a needless distraction for him. One thing we can organize after the election is a grass/netroots effort to get him to step down.
Exactly. I didn’t expect anything else. That’s what’s so disgusting and why I hate what this country has become. We’ve slid over a line in the last few months.
I find the above picture very troubling. Couldn’t a real picture of him been found?
well i think even SARAH PALIN could have been part of this concensus…”g”
Main St., Main St., Main St. Main St. is this shock’s mushroom cloud. How raped do you feel?
For #1, it doesn’t relate,different money
For #2, the idea is that $250B is initially given to Paulson with all the supposed oversight and then if the President decides that such isn’t enough, they request another $100B which the Congress can refuse(sure they can), and finally, if things aren’t working out after $350B, the President/Treasury can come back to the Congress for the other $350B.
#3 you’ve answered.
#4, it’s a different variant of the ponzi scheme.
See Section 101(e) of the bill re #5.
That’s the whole point, torpedo him.
As liberals, I think we still have lots of tools left in our toolkit.
Paulson’s got $250 billion up front? and more on the way. My hope is that liberal blogs will find a way to track the price of his purchases. I know these are complex instruments, but the possibility of traceability does exist.
What matters for the country is that this money is well spent. If liberal blogs can document early in the process, that that isn’t happenging, it’s a possible to repeat emptywheel’s Jane’s, and Christy’s seminal work on the CIA leak investigation.
SHOEMARE!!!
Democracy: one person, one vote.
Capitalism: one dollar, one vote.
Score today for capitalism.
let me see my 401k
These wankers have no idea how stupid they look to their constituents. Dianne Feinstein said she’d received 91,000 calls and emails, the most on any issue ever in such a short time, with less than 2,000 in favor of this bill.
And they all go on teevee and talk about the wonderful thing they have done.
Wankers.
From your lips …
What about Pelosi?
I’m not talking about Obama here. I’m talking about each and every one of us. If anything saves what little we have we’re going to have to do it ourselves. By pushing this bill Obama, if he wins, has ensured that he has to do nothing, using the excuse “there’s no money,” while wining and dining those 400 richest Americans. Yeah, I’ll vote for Obama. That will be the last thing I ever have to do with the two party system. It’s time to build alternatives. Not after the election, not next year. Yesterday. It’s time to fly the red flag of non-violent revolution.
its very important to blame the whole thing on him/
it really is psychotic break territory
Talk about being in a bubble. And creating bubbles.
?
Yes, that’s why I’m emigrating next spring.
i do NOT believe that is what he is about… i do NOT
Rachel: As ostentatious a display of self-congratulation as it was an ostentatious display of bipartisanship.
Grand, innit?
Let’s face it. Sometimes, voting for an unpopular bill is just the right thing to do and an act of courage in the face of public ignorance. This is NOT one of those times, Senator Obama.
btw - sanders was awesome. for anyone who missed his major speech on the bill, here is the link to it on the c-span archives (it’s already up).
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/.....5&n=2
SCHUMER really needs to go
Great leadership isn’t just getting people to follow you. It’s also going the right way.
And the Supremes have ruled that ‘money’ actually is ‘democracy’.
Ah yes, the Age of the Divine Right of Money.
How fortunate we are to witness these revealed truths, eCAHN, how very fortunate indeed.
The Best of All Possible Worlds … and it is ours.
Given your thoughts, why do you think Obama would appont nominees any different the Mr. Corporatist Roberts?
Most people here seem to think they KNOW exactly what this means and what will happen. I say bullshit, fuckin theory, their theory, our theory. bullshit.
the guy needs to get elected….then we can fine tune the direction…IMO
If this deal is as bad as I think the banks will be beging for cash after the new year we might have to nationalize them. If auto sales are any indication the economy is dropping fast.
The falling auto sales happened before the bailout. I see no way that this bailout will stimulate demand only liquidity but who needs to borrow money when demand is down?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/0.....autosales/
My bold Bush still has time to beat Hoover.
The Harvey MIlk Democratic Club, risking its charter as a party club, will vote next Tuesday whether to withdraw their Pelosi endorsement. They are the more radical of the two LGBT Dem clubs in town; they endorsed Newsom’s opponent, who was a Green, but didn’t get their charter revoked since our mayoralty election is supposedly “non-partisan.”
But de-endorsing a candidate with a D next to her name — and considering an endorsement of Cindy Sheehan — is a bridge too far for local Democratis poo-bahs, I expect. We’ll see.
I have been reading my book of Ghandi quotes tonight thinking about the calamity that is sure to come.
“A small boy of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in thier mission can alter the course of history.” Mahatma Ghandi - 1938
Viva la revolution! I am with you my brother!
where are you going?
It’s like a goddamn faculty meeting here.
Memo to House Dems–the GOP are going to brain you for this. They are–literally–already running ads about it. What’s more important? A Wall Street banker having a job in January, or YOU having a job in January?
Then you must be a candidate to buy a bridge to nowhere.
Obama has war mongering, economically conservative advisors. He never let on in his life (as near as we can tell from public info) what he believes in. He is heavily financed by corps. He has ambition beyond anyone who has ever been prez, evidenced by how far he’s come while being black. He has figured out that making a good speech and not revealing anything else can get you to the top of the heap.
That’s my evidence. What’s yours?
Thanks much, Ian. Looking forward to your later thoughts on the zero-reserves, and on the non-US aspects. Hm, wonder if the deal they worked out included taking bad non-US-property debt b/c the foreign banks were starting up the same kinds of programs they saw (and were participating in) in the US.
?
Why, that could be… impeachable malfeasance! Knock me over with a feather…
thank you Mrs Clinton
fuck it, I’m gone
Damn, how’d I forget to put that in my little screed at 78.
How ya doin’? I think it’s a combination of fear and apathy. Well, those who are fearful are about to have their nightmare come true and the apathetic are about to get a foot put up their ass.
I think BayWalk this Sat nite is going to be a fun meeting of radical left thinkers.
House has to vote on it now.
Her too.
do i have to pay for the kit?
I’m thinking about it
Thanks.
If McCain had voted against it, Democrats would have been in some neck-deep shit.
i think………..(it burns somewhat)…he will get us out of Iraq,take the money ….1.2 trillion a year,and spend it here….my belief
Glad you said that. Been thinking the same thing.
that’s the only thought that is keeping me from the hemlock
no stay …speak you are important here
South America is all I am willing to say on this forum.
Written into the legislation.
.
Thanks, interesting. But also a potential criminal or civil liability exposure for the Administration and/or officials of same…
I agree with you, but I’m bothered by the fact that I felt exactly the same way about Bill Clinton, and as a gay man, I ended up with Don’t Ask Don’t Tell and the Defense of Marriage Act. I think he has the potential to be a great leader, but he also has the potential to be an enormous disappointment, and as far as his Senate votes go, I’ve seen more of the latter than the former.
Let me get this straight: Ian Welsh is a social media strategy consultant and a Canadian, who’s mobilizing people against Obama because he voted for a plan that economists such as Paul Krugman and James Galbraith would rather see pass than not pass in order to maintain the economy for after the election, and a bunch of equally inexpert followers agree with whatever he says? In other words, Ian Welsh has analyzed this bill, one that everyone agrees isn’t the best, but many people feel is necessary in the short term to keep credit moving, payrolls funded, student loans funded, etc., and wants to influence the election to the benefit of John McCain because he’s worried that some Wall Street cronies are going to be further enriched by it? And some of the commenters believe that Paulson is doing this in order to enrich Republicans, and their response is to vote for Bob Barr? Tell me where the logic is.
I asked for evidence, not belief. Tell me what he has done (words don’t count for pols) that supports your position.
So Obama is progressive on something.
How correct you are, SD, it is past time to behave like conscious, responsible human beings and INSIST upon reason and healthy, long and worthwhile lives for ALL people, everywhere. Let’s start here, at home.
But I suspeculate that your words are scaring folks a mite bit …
Getting too real too quickly (even though everybody here has been preparing for specifically THESE rimes for their whole lives)!
F the election. Tonight we are talking about values, and Obama, again, showed that he is short suited in that category.
Belize? They speak English and as a member of the British Comonwealth they don’t have to worry about wars. The economy is poor but the government is stable so living should be cheap.
Its on my list.
i’m listening to sanders again (helps me keep my early new years resolution), and i think he sounds even better the second time.
has someone locked you in?
A mi me gusta a Argentina.
i truly believe under a McAsshole/Palin administration,you will be in danger……they are batshit
what people dont REALIZE it can get soooo much worse here…MUCH worse
la Argentina
he spoke against the war when it was UNPOPULAR…he has no power yet…he has worked all his life for oppressed people in his state…he could have been ANOTHER PAULSON on Wall Street…he chose the road less travelled by,and that has made all the difference
Two words.
Remember. FISA.
’nuff said.
he’s going to be a one-term president.
I would strongly urge you to apologize for the statement.
It’s intrinsically white supremacist.
Obama is running against McCain. It’s his responsibility to Democrats, to America, and to the world to get elected. His responsibility for this is significantly less than all the other US Senators who are not on a ballot in November.
Here’s an alternative way of saying what you said: “He has ambition beyond anyone who has ever been prez, evidenced by how far he’s come while not being 100% European American.”
Obama’s not “black.” Unless you’re an albino, you’re nothing close to “white.”
perfect analogy. Yes, we will all have to pay for the kit.
I am against it because of my own beliefs, thank you. I did my own analysis and I believe this is a bad bill. I have been posting endlessly all week on why this is a bad bill both my opinion and those of others.
I was kind of joking about Bob Barr because I am in a Red State so most likely my vote does not matter anyway. It would be a protest vote and you can pretty much insert any third party candidate who appears to believe in the constitution as that would get my point across just as well.
it does seem like an attractive idea at this point. i was curious and wondering if i would hear something that would feel like something i should do also. of course i have respect for your sense of privacy.
They think they are smarter than the punters on Main Street. They could care less for people, only use them to get to the place of power.
TERM LIMITS
FDR was centrist when he ran for prez
If you take Blodget’s view of things, it don’t matter what passes or don’t pass now.
Cuz later, it will all get changed. This is just another step of denial, and will cost us two years or so of recovery . . . . course, if ya don’t believe what Blodget posts, the screwing likely will be deeper and last much longer than two years . . .
My bottom line? No one knows shit. No one (metaphorically speaking). You can game it all you want, and for what it’s worth, I think Ian has been the best I’ve read in a month or more . . .
But even Ian can’t really predict what’s gonna come down. No one can.
I DO agree, this bailout will tank us faster, further and longer.
But at that point, we’ll be up to where the rest of the planet has been for 2-4 years . . . we’ve been lucky so far. Now, it’s payback time. Bad policy gonna make for bad living.
And Obama STILL may have a chance to go FDR on it all, once elected.
We’ll STILL be hit hard . . . the next 12 months gonna be hard. McCain couldn’t pull us outta it, but Obama, maybe can turn the corner faster for us all, once it’s tanked out.
Hunker down. *G*
THESE times —- !
though rimes (rhymes) is ok. (C)rimes against humanity ain’t, and the sell-out we are witnessing may, ultimately, rise to that august level of serious high, even treasonously destructive crimminal behavior …
Dude, don’t bother.
If anything many of us are to the left of Ian. Many of us have been commenting about the housing bubble being bad for the economy ever since greenspan and Bush created it.
We are pushing for a better bill for the economy rather than a bill that makes the politicians happy and that can pass.
That and the American people are really really pissed so we have momentum.
well said
oh, and there’s no Plan B, morning after pill included in the kit.
actually, i don’t think anyone has analyzed it (especially the people who voted on it tonight), considering it is 450 pages and was released just a few hours before the vote. on the other hand some people here have read other versions, listened to the treasury’s conference call to financial analysts on sunday night, etc - and do not think it was either necessary or helpful.
What she said.
World market players are already worse off than we are.
They will BE a part of the bailout, a LARGE part.
Watch.
I don’t but I know what McSFB would appoint. I don’t like lesser of two evils situations but I have no control other than my vote. I’ve never thought that, if elected, the Dems would be able to make all the changes we want/need in the next 3-4 congressional cycles. Now it might take a little longer and I’ll just have to work and fight a little harder. And I’ll be working in a direction other than these worthless 2 parties.
LOL.
Any hope that Jackie Speier would primary DiFi?
I fully agree with you. My point is that I had sincerely hoped that this election would be one in which I actually voted FOR someone, as opposed to voting AGAINST the worst of two evils. Obama will still get my vote. But ever since his FISA vote, he has not gotten any of my money, nor do I plan on giving him any more before the election.
Is Ian Welsh a blogger provacateur? Does he think McCain/Palin is the preferred alternative given the vote for the bailout? I trust Krugman more than Welsh.
I have somewhat limited comprehension of well, most things… but it seems to me that since we’re borrowing the money to fund the Iraq war, getting out doesn’t actually result in any windfall savings, it just means we’re not piling on debt quite as fast.
Also we think this bill will make things worse in the long run $700 billion is a lot of money to pay for a temporary fix.
Give you that one.
As for being another Paulson on Wall St., he will be after his prez term (assuming …). Or even if he loses the election, he can still be Paulson on Wall St. He chose a path to power & wealth that he thought would maximize both in the longer run.
Don’t get me wrong. He’s a man of enormous intellect and talents (that don’t tickle my funny bone but I realize they are enormously attractive to many). That’s the reason I don’t trust him. So many gifts, and we know so little about him. Read Audacity of Hope, and left him just as opaque as before I read it.
Yes, it does feel like a personal violation. Shock Doctrine meets pig men meets corrupt, incompetent condecending politicians.
General comment: Very good thread so far, but WAY too much troll-feeding.
Oh, BS. I’m talking about his overcoming prejudice in the U.S., and you know that.
Barney Frank just owned Anderson Cooper, in short:
“When did I get the power to force Congress to do anything? If I could, I would have stopped the Iraq War, the Patriot Act…”
Its fun to see Barney fired up, in a Saturday barber shop debate kinda way.
me too…but honestly after hearing PALINS interview with Katie Couric….and thinking old coot McDummy will not survive(his cancers)…I CANNOT IMAGINE the country with her at the helm…CAN ..NOT…IMAGINE
My friends, this bailout won’t do what it’s supposed to do. Cars aren’t selling, not because people can’t get credit, but because they don’t need the junk, and don’t have the INCOME, not the credit!
This effort to save free market capitalism will fail. It will just give money to (which will be worth nothing soon) to a bunch of slackers.
The USA financial system is melting down and this will do nothing.
What you need to do is agitate for what comes next and struggle against the fascists who are chafing at the bit to rule the world.
The wheel barrow biz should be brisk.
Has anyone addressed the issue that the Senate CANNOT constitutionally offer up a spending bill?
I thought one of the Presidential Candidates was a Constitutional Lawyer…… Professor of Constitutional Law……..
Thank you Bluetoe2. It disgusts me that here we are again in a close election with an able, progressive, brilliant Democratic ticket, and these ridiculous fake progressives, some of whom are possibly not even citizens, are mobilizing people against this candidate in favor (by default) of a frightening fascist and a bimbo. It turns my stomach. And this on the basis of very questionable expertise in an area which is frought with confusion and differing good faith opinions.
We’re not “spending” $700 Billion - we’re investing it in what amounts to an extremely risky, and possibly bad investment, but one which will not be entirely lost.
Remember, if McCain and Palin get it, we get batshit crazy until they rapture, and they want that fast. I’m certain they could gin up a nice nukulur exchange with them Russkys to accomplish that.
Try “Dreams From My Father” instead. I’m about 1/4 of the way through it, and I’ve found it quite illuminating.
WTF is with the ad hominems on Ian? IMHO it is always appropriate to criticize a position, if you disagree with it, and very rarely appropriate to attack the person who takes the position.
So you want to abandon the black caucus and the unions?
Do you think the black caucus and the unions are going to follow you into a third party?
Do you think the Democrats and GOP are going to let you get any candidate on a ballot, anywhere?
Liberals have infinitely more leverage inside the Democratic party than outside of it.
Think AMUF
no one is telling you what to think.
but i’d feel better about your choice if you trusted bluetoe2 to think it through, rather than relying on either ian or paul.
Until there is a real progressive movement on the streets and the voting booth the U.S. will have to make do with the lesser of two evils. The U.S. might start with educating the citizenry, particularly on history and civics.
As for being another Paulson on Wall St., he will be after his prez term (assuming …). Or even if he loses the election, he can still be Paulson on Wall St. He chose a path to power & wealth that he thought would maximize both in the longer run.
—————
come on…you are better than this…he could have been like the black guy from Fannie Mae…or the other guy….he isnt,he didnt….thats NOT HIM,you know it
No Ian is not I am still voting for Obama I think that as Citizens we should reserve the right to call Obama out when he is wrong.
Well being from Canada Ian can say what ever he wants.
It is courageous and more individuals and groups need to do the same.
Exactly temporary expensive “fix”. I studied in my economics classes that the one time it does make sense to run deficits is when you are in recession in order to stimulate the economy.
Now assuming we spend the 700 billion on the bailout plan there is little room left for any stimulation of mainstreet down the road. The deficit is getting to the point where we will not be able to borrow any more. At that point we are completely at the mercy of the markets. There is nothing we can do to try to pull ourselves out of this mess.
Friends I hate to say this but get used to the new economy it is going to be around for a while unless there is another paradigm shift.
I don’t know of any group that more strongly supported liberals on FISA than the black caucus.
I think they gutted some other bill and dumped this one into it. It was one of those “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Bullshit!” moments.
I think we’ve exhausted this topic for now. Time will tell. And then we can get together & toast the more & lesser accurate assessment. OK?
Get his book Non-violent Resistance (Satyagraha).
Also Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky
We’re burnin’ daylight.
I suspect the Dems would revoke their charter at their own peril. My bet is they do some complaining but decline to take action.
amen.
i am very, very thankful to ian and jan for giving those of us who are concerned and outraged about this issue a place to discuss it with each other.
So it’s better to not speak you mind and follow along with blind faith?
Hey!
This place has a wide array of opinions, and thank Dog for that.
No matter where they come from.
Since when did we become nationalist a**Holes?
I just wanted to say that the text of the Senate bill can be found here:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/i.....ailout.pdf
(This actually downloads fast.)
The bill is split into 3 parts. The first is as far as I can tell the original “compromise” bill with minor changes like the increase of the FDIC guarantee to $250,000 on page 91. This part goes from pages 2-113.
The second part is the energy bill and goes from pages 113-261.
The third part contains all the tax provisions added on and goes from pages 261-451.
And yes there is a tax provision for wooden arrows. It’s Sec. 503 on pages 300-301.
There is also a duty suspension on wool products: Sec. 325, page 295. This one I think was added because of the large quantities of wool which the Senate thought would be needed to pull over our eyes.
am I allowed to post when I agree with the headliner?
since when do laws matter? that’s SO 1999.
Reid’s got to be ready to spend some time relaxing. I don’t get this thing of power being more important than spending a small part of your life being able to just plain relax, travel, read…doing the things that you never could do while working.
I don’t understand this mindset.
Aren’t you the patronizing one? Think that one through.
okay agreed….lets be ITALIAN grandmothers for BHO…nudging him with grace,hope,and a good scolding if he needs it
I’m glad you’re voting for Obama but the time to call people out is after the election. Progressives have enough trouble getting a majority of votes, and getting their votes counted. We can fight among ourselves when we have some strength. And let’s pick battles that we all are better informed about. Frankly, I find it a bit offensive that Ian is leading this march - sure, he can say whatever he wants but when he’s mobilizing people against particular candidates, he should make it clear that he has a much lesser stake in the fascism that’s going to result.
Gloria - re “possibly not even citizens” — you lost me there.
Ian’s commentary is some of the quality stuff in the Intertoobs. If you have an argument against his points, let’s hear it. But geography ain’t trumps.
I’m a citizen. But that doesn’t make my distrust of Obama any more or less valid. What makes it less valid is that, unlike Ian, I have given you no reasons to back up my position.
And by the way, I voted for O in the primary and I will vote for him in the general — but I don’t trust him. I think he’s a DLC Democrat, and I think they more than any other group are responsible for the fact that The American Experiment is over.
Let’s see who they pin the blame on when this thing fails.
Much as I would prefer not to say anything that might conceivably further embolden the very irritating Ben Stein, I still kinda like the idea of seizing, nationalizing, freezing, or otherwise removing from circulation all existing CDS’ and higher-order derivatives.
Well, at least Obama’s strings are visible for all to see now. And, it’s not like we have a choice, is it?
What am I supposed to do to show my disdain, vote McCain?
Your statement in comment 100, “He has ambition beyond anyone who has ever been prez, evidenced by how far he’s come while being black,” is imo highly consistent with refined white supremacy.
The Black Caucus (which according to your preferred definition probably has no blacks) is great on the majority of things I care about. Obama not so much.
Spend invest we have the money or rather we think we can borrow the money once the money is spent or invested its gone unless we get something back from our investment.
I doubt we will get market value much less a profit after inflation and even less of a chance to get a profit with interest that will be higher than the interest we will pay for borrowing $700 billion.
Never mind that borrowing all that money will make the Dollar drop in value.
Actually, for about a month, yes - especially when you’re speaking out of ignorance.
That’s one reason I am disturbed about the picture at the top which looks like Obama is doing the “black power” salute. Unfortunate to say the least.
Oh! Oh! Oh! I know this one! Pick me! Pick me!
So change “black” into “being a member of a disadvataged group.” Does that make you chill?
he should make it clear that he has a much lesser stake in the fascism that’s going to result.
———————-
agreed
we will get Prez Pallin sooner rather than later…nightmares of all nightmares
me too.
5) A lot of it is making Arab and Chinese debts good, yes. That’s why foreign entities can use the facilities. The Arabs and Chinese have been telling the US that they make it good, or they get cut off.
THAT is what I was thinking. The most the bailout accomplishes is paying the biggest creditors, so we can keep the daily operations money (ie. loans to us) flowing.
More to come on this, folks. It ain’t over yet — and Obama is the guy I want in the Presidential negotiating chair as it unfolds.
it aint gonna be pretty,thats fer sure
Well said the oppertunity cost of this $700 billion must be measured against the lost oppertunity to do something else with that money that we think is better for the economy.
4) Can you interpret for us how Section 128 (which appears to allow banks to operate with zero reserves — for the first time?!?) relates to the rest of the scheme?
Prepares the next round: endgame.
Well, I don’t claim to understand much, but I find your angle to be highly offensive… with no supporting argument and crude attacks, it’s difficult to take you any other way.
I don’t get any sense that a lot of people are having their minds changed but at least everybody has an opportunity to vent, which is valuable in it’s own right. Progressives don’t like to march in lock-step, which separates us from lower life-forms such as Republicans.
I’ve been wondering if Oklahoma Kiddo and Lahoma might be feeling that way also.
So far as I’m concerned, this is absolutely the last time I will vote for the dems if, and this is where Obama had better be listening, if the Obama Presidency does not look very like FDR’s then the dems are not worth a damn, and are, clearly, at least half of the ‘problem’.
It is up to Obama to ‘lead’ the dems and the nation toward something much, much better, or the dems will be finished. Of course that leaves the other half of the par-tay (since, effectively, contrary to popular ‘belief’, there is but one partay with the thugs at the head and the dems bringing up the ass-end) for us to deal with, for surely the dems won’t …
Now, that’s not forgetting that we have to ‘make’ Obama ‘do it’.
Regarding third parties, Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond accomplished far more for white supremacists than George Wallace. Wallace created the American Independent Party. Helms and Thurmond stayed in the Democratic party, but called themselves, “conservative” Democrats.
I would strongly invite liberals to learn from Helms and Thurmond regarding tactics.
Ian doesn’t have to live with a fascist president and an imbecile vice president. That’s my point about Ian. My other point about Ian is that he’s not an economist, and he doesn’t (from his profile or from what I’ve read of his writing) have any particular expertise in the cause or solution to the credit crisis that we’re having. I’m not sure I’ve heard from anyone on this blog who actually does work in a business that has to borrow in order to pay the staff who works there. These are real issues, and obviously there is good faith disagreement on what should be done about them. And the 700 Billion dollars is not “spent”. The legislation provides that it is an investment. Everyone agrees that it’s a bad investment, but we’re not losing it all or even close to it all.
ya know i knew this thread would do me no good
Obama can’t do jack if he’s not elected.
McCain is Jack.
All right then. Let’s do it. My dad’s got a barn…
I LOVE this book. It’s right on and it’s fun to read.
I think we are feeding way too much.
I don’t really think we can value these instruments. To evaluate a typical CDO, we would have to be able to evaluate a significant percentage of the mortgages in the package. Then we would have to model the performance of the pool into the future. This requires a set of assumptions about things difficult to evaluate, such as the economic future of the individuals obligated on the notes, the housing market, the mortgage market, to name three. Then we have to factor in a discount rate. In general, the past isn’t likely to be helpful in deciding on the assumptions. For example, we have a lot of history telling us about the frequency of sales of homes by people moving up or refinancing. That isn’t going to predict the future very well.
And each CDO has to be evaluated solely on the basis of its own pool of mortgages. The differences among pools are so great that it would be inappropriate to do a couple of pools and extrapolate.
Now consider credit default swaps. One party might have issued a CDS for one of these difficult to value CDOs. How do we value that?
Al we are going to get is a statement from Treasury as to what they bought and how much they paid.
I am stunned that the mods let this through. It is offensive and ugly.
no, i was serious - the last 7 years have taught me to distrust all experts. maybe distrust is too strong a word - to be skeptical of experts is more accurate. my apologies if i offended, no offense was intended - indeed, i meant it as a complement. again, my apologies.
U.S. R. I. P.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....30820.html
George bush and karl rove took what was supposed the best and brightest democrats bent them over and nailed them w/o k-y. At least the repubs are out to screw you and you know it, w/ the dems they put their hand around your shoulder tell you they understand and will watch out for your interests and the next thing their hands down your pants.
So how much more s*** can we expect from these repugnant PROFESSIONAL POLITICIANS who will now take a month paid campaigning to tell us what a great F***ing job they did for us.
In what sense? What specific action(s) by whom do you see it facilitating?
We have the strength we have a majority in the House and Senate to bad our majority does not have the will.
Only by screaming how much we don’t want this can we make our voices heard over WallStreets Dollars.
I think he will be, too. As a poster on Atrios said, he needs a center- right lobotomy.
Must be because I’m not afraid. It’s not only this bill, it’s the system. Our children are given a rudimentary, if that, education, equipping them with the skills needed to perform the lower functions required by a corporate state. Need I bring up health care? Many of the ingredients in the god-awful processed food we eat is increasingly tainted with toxic substances for the sake of profit. This bill is only a symptom, not the disease.
Hi LooHoo…waves…………McCain is JACK SHIT
You funny.
Isn’t Knut and economist?
I trust Denis and Bernie Saunders. I trust WIlliam Greider.
Agree. This could be brutal.
nope.
i seem to remember folks here saying that dissent is patriotic. i still think that.
Ho Hum. Exact same arguments been seeing here and from some friends of mine for the last year or two since I’ve been talking up Obama. Used to spend time presenting countless links and “evidence” that Obama is in fact a fairly Liberal politician and has the record to prove it. As far from an empty suit that just gives good speech as you can get. Others have been doing it as well (PetePierce used to fill screens worth of Obama’s impressive legislative history), but few seem to ever respond to this “evidence,” so started feeling like a futile endeavor.
FISA and this latest bill are troubling. Even with this, Obama is much more preferable over any Clinton IMO, so I’ll trust that there’s some political calculus happening that we don’t understand since McInsane must be stopped. Paul Wellstone used to vote some ways that would piss me off from time to time.
We can have the biggest impact on Congressional races which has been proven already. Because of this, we should rally around Blue America to make sure we can put enough pressure on President Obama to do better once in power, instead of dividing ourselves over Presidential politics which we have little influence on anyway. United we stand, divided we fall, and all that jazz…
Lay off eCHAN she is not a racist. I’ve met her argued with her and agreed with her lots on the Lake. Racists don’t last long here between everyone jumping on them and the mods and you know that cause you have been around too.
The disease is capitalism.
The cure is socialism or start owned capital (the people own capital, not the capitalists). I would say communism, but that word is so tainted you can’t utter it.
gloria, are you a U.S. citizen?
I renounce my US citizenship. Are you listening FBI? hahahaha
Fuck the fucking fucks, TedP . . .the HMDC is doing the right thing.
Good on them to have gumption to stand up.
I wish them well, and Cindy too . . .
I had a meeting of the SUNY-New Paltz Foundation Finance Committee this afternoon, with Smith Barney, the managers of the endowment, as there is a lot going on in financial markets, if you hadn’t noticed. Actually the meeting was not about current events, but those triggered some long unasked Qs about asset allocation and how the investment policy should read.
After the meeting, someone asked me what I thought about the bailout package. I had to answer that I didn’t know. I understand the arguements for it, and think a bailout is necessary, but am fairly sure that this legislation is not the way to go. But couldn’t explain it in a sound bite, always my goal when I was a talking head.
Grossing up from my own experience, I think every “honest” expert should be unsure. But probably that’s just me.
Yep, just $10B or so a month we won’t have to borrow.
Phew. I was worried about our contretemps. *extending hand for friendly shake*
Thank you, selise.
after the final FISA vote, I’m not disillusioned, I’m not shocked, I’m not even surprised.
AND
I’ll be writing in my candidate of choice.
I already got my money back from the campaign.
I’ll eat it for the yard signs I bought for Obama for me and some friends.
But I just gotta be done here with him.
And after he wins? I’m looking to cross a border somewhere. This isn’t America anymore, and I don’t, therefore, HAVE a home. But neither does my Native partner.
We’ll be bowing out.
So much for the “great American experiment”.
it was great while it lasted.
c’ya.
Yes, I am, and I have to live with what happens, thank you very much.
Merci buttercups.
Interestingly, we seem to be rapidly moving towards a centrally-planned economy with government-owned home-based assets. Hard to get much farther from the conservative capitalism of W’s supposed base.
It’s only an investment if we price the purchase correctly, and if we get the warrants required by the bill. For reasons explained in part in my comment @ 218, I don’t feel good about the purchase price calculation. Paulson was opposed to the warrant provisions, and I don’t trust him to get us a fair return that way. The provision Pelosi bragged about, requiring the president in 5 years to calculate the loss and recoup it from the industry is silly.
The only reason I can see to vote for it is that we clearly need to do something, and this is what is possible.
Thank you, terrific comment, really appreciated.
We need to dig back and find out what price the banks paid for these securities. That’s where you start. We don’t invent new assumptions. We shred the ones they used, which obviously were wrong.
We have to use the same tools Wall Street would use to measure ROI.
We have to throw all Wall Street’s bull shit back at them. For example, “you can’t manage it, if you can’t measure it.”
I think the narrative works. Who in the liberal community who actually has the expertise to do this, however, is beyond me.
may i remind you all,that even when FDR started the New DEal,it was a crap shoot so to speak,because nobody knew if it would work,and until the beginiing ofWW2 the economy was still in terrible doldrums
Not centrally planned economy. That would be socialism. Think corporate run economy with govt imprimature. That would be fascism.
Now if we could only get the money changers out of the temple.
Thanks for the confirmation. Thought I’d gotten lost in the whirlpool.
wow,havent spoken to you in a long while..just wow
Yes, but we now have learned those lessons, and they do not seem to be guiding policy anymore, more’s the pity.
Anyone can assert that they’re a U.S. citizen gloria. How do I know you really are?
Naw its just hard to spell so I write Lefty instead:)
No, it’s like that in DC.
The academe is another of our greatest failures in the past 40 years.
I have NO respect for it anymore.
Once the faculty unions were negated and the power of the money at the top trumped professor’s and their curriculum, and stole their intellectual property rights, the academe has become just another tool of the 1%.
Like Main Street, they have only themselves to blame, as the right and rightous prof’s of conservatism helped eliminate dissent and faculty control v. control of management.
And soon, the conservative prof’s will (are) being squeezed to teach this, not that.
May they all rot. The prof’s, and the pols, and the people who enabled all of this.
And they will rot, as they inherit the value of their self proscribed madness.
We do have a fascist situation here… that’s pretty obvious.
Time for tuning forks and pitch forks
Happy trails.
So, anyone know how Alan Grayson is doing in the polls? The thought of him running around Capitol Hill alongside Donna Edwards is quite exciting.
I guess the truth had to come out sooner or later. the Republicans will beat you over the head with a St. Louis slugger, while the Democrats will use a velvet glove to accomplish the same end.
Come this election day, remember who sold we the American people out and return the favor in kind. Vote the bums out!
im thinking ahead to Jan.,the guy is a serious introvert poker player,i think he has cards up his sleeves….he is a thinker…plodder
go back and read your 1984 and Brave New World and see Century of the Self
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcfour/d.....de_1.shtml
Well this was Bush’s idea sure McCain and Obama are pushing it to be law. Whats really weird is the Left wants the markets to act without government interfering or we at least want a better plan than lets throw some money at the problem.
Now is the time for the trojans to arrive in America
Um, this is America. We have the opposite problem here.
In any case, Ian gets to live with a fascist Prime Minister, so it pretty much evens out.
I am going to sleep…
what a day… we got robbed.
Telling people that a chicken is a pig, then putting lipstick on it, doesn’t do anything for the chicken.
Fine, they can bail out Wall Street. The economy will still be in trouble, becuse they’re not fixing the problem of the mortgages that Wall Street has turned into ‘Monopoly’ money, or the bankruptcy bill and the health care costs that are sending people into bankruptcy. Or the jobs going down the tubes, either.
Obama made a nice speech - he’s good at that - but he still votes like he’s afraid of being called out as a liberal for doing the right thing.
We know what they did, we know who they are, and we can primary every f*cking one of them for the next ten or twelve years. They want our money and our votes, but they don’t want to admit we exist the rest of the time? Tough, we’ll keep reminding them. (No. I. Won’t. Forget.)
I stand… well, since we’re being accrate, actually I recline corrected.
Ah, but the money changers are the very priests of the temple in this case!
well, here is what i do know. that any bill, regardless of how brilliantly on target and well crafted, needs a few things in addition:
1) competent and at least semi-honest people to execute it.
2) enough transparency so that the system does not have to operate solely on “trust”
3) oversight that includes mechanisms for accountability
and
4) a means of figuring out how this happened, if it’s not already understood, so that appropriate preventive measures can be taken.
imo, one does not need to be an economist to judge this bill on these points. and on these points, imo, what we have seen so far fails and fails utterly. ymmv.
and i haven’t even commented on the economics of the deal.
I agree with you that it’s not a great bill. I’m annoyed that Ian Welsh is using this issue to mobilize people against Obama. It’s a bill that people are trying to hurry through to save, in the short-term, people’s jobs and futures. My own bank just tanked, and there are worries that I have regarding some of my own responsibilities. It may be a conspiracy, who knows - but there is a credit crunch, and there are failing institutions. Let’s get it done, and make amends after the election. I totally disagree that this bill will completely hamstring a progressive agenda.
I disagree. I think sampling the tranches by vintage and looking at their default rates is eminently doable. As for evaluation against what, I think that a 40% write down due to declining housing prices is reasonable. We do not have to get super arcane here. 40% is a good standard figure. Since the government would be setting up the formula for the evaluation what it says goes. It is the market for illiquid assets and so what it decides is how these get marked to market. 40% makes a whole lot more sense as a best guess for housing depreciation than pulling $700 billion out of the air because it is “big”.
In any case, you can use the tranch sampling to adjust the 40% up or down depending on the tranch quality. This serves as the basis for a thorough evaluation of assets and a recalculation of balance sheets on something other than air. Once we know this information we can make decisions about liquidating or re-capitalizing (in exchange for equity or promissory notes).
Who said anything about abandoning anybody.
In time, perhaps so. I don’t suffer from instant gratification disease. This isn’t about trying to sweep into office in 2010. Maybe 2016, depending how bad the 2 parties screw everybody.
I don’t expect anybody to let me do anything. It comes from hard work among folks who see no improvement in their quality of life under the present system. Freedom is never given. It is taken.
I think we’ve seen how well liberals have fared within the Democratic Party.
or “accurate” even.
That may not work out so well if you don’t have some other citizenship.
I was referring to the McCain/Palin ticket.
My generally-unreliable-source says that the guys playing with the CDSs and stuff were using default rates based on conventional (fixed-rate) mortgages, even though a lot of the mortgages they were slicing-and-dicing were not fixed-rate.
I don’t know if that’s true, but I hope that they were smarter than that.
not sure there is anywhere to run away to. but regardless of what you decide, so long as we have the tubes, i hope you are only a few electrons away. (siri)
Been in and out the last couple of days, but has selise or someone clued in to the process commented on the recycling of a moribund tax bill that had been voted previously in the House? I’ve seen elsewhere that this might be a manuver by which that kind of principle is circumvented, e.g. the present bill is introduced as a Senate amendment to the dead bill, etc.
If I understood what I read correctly (and believe me, I was skimming at the time as it really wasn’t the top item on my own agenda), then the House vote, which took the form of a vote to accept a Senate amendment to whatever the fuck et cetera, was supposed to “legitimize” the move.
selise? Help!!!
yea ,i had to do some fancy juggling myself today,and the bank manager called me tonight at 8:30 and i read him the riot act before i knew who it was…i was so ashamed,called him back…much egg on face
Lets hope so I remember hearing that Abraham Lincoln argued that slavery was wrong and he wanted to end it but that African Americans were not equal to Whites.
Abe said what he had to to get elected same as Clinton, now why did they both bother lying when the conservatives never believed them? Thats an interesting question.
But they both were much better than the alternatives. I’m hoping that Obama is cut from the same cloth.
People who have filed for bankruptcy due to massive medical bills will get sick again. They will incur new debt. Bankruptcy will not be available to them again. They will simply stop paying their bills. This is how it worked in my house.
Evening, all-
IIRC, wasn’t the New Deal kind of a hit or miss experiment, where things were tried, evaluated, and either discarded or expanded, depending on their success or failure? I hate this, but I think it was a political fait accompli (at least in the Senate), and that, for Obama, it was the realpolitik, ruthlessly pragmatic thing to do. Most seem to agree that things are going to get worse, and if Obama votes against it, the next day he’s “the man who caused the depression.” A sacrifice of principal for political expediency-I’ll agree with that- but beyond that, this was a truly basic, classic Machiavellian, pure power- politics decision on Obama’s part, IMHO.
I was thinking along similar lines, that a blanket percentage write-down would be a much less blunt instrument than mark-to-market, and mainly it would avoid the balance sheet problem for the lenders. But 40% as an average across the portfolio sounds (off the top of my head) too much of a discount, my feeling (and it’s nothing more than that) was more in the 20-25% range. As you say, some sampling of the portfolios would have to be done, a full census of every single property in the portfolio while accurate wouldn’t statistically speaking be very very very much more accurate than a well-conducted sampling.
But it would stanch the blood loss.
LOL. I’ll drink to that.
Absolutely. Well said; pithily to the point.
Given what ‘understanding’ entails, there isn’t much that one should fear except one’s own closed mindedness, and I know, SD, that you don’t suffer from that.
It is interesting though, how few have responded to what you’ve put out ‘there’ this evening.
Far as I can tell the Treasury is broke. We simply cannot continue to borrow money and pay the interest with tax revenue. We cannot borrow our way out of debt. Print tons of money and it’s worthless. Think Weimar Republic.
I’ll try and help you out a little here, because I believe you are a liberal and we’re in short supply.
Americans who had slaves as ancestors, frequently refer to themselves as “black.” You may consider Obama “black,” but as far as I know, they do not. He had no slaves as ancestors.
I would strongly encourage you to broaden your cultural horizons. It was an accident that “you” were born 100% European American in America. You could just as easily have been born “black” in Colfax LA and killed in the massacre of 1873. Or you could have been born “black” in Tulsa OK and died in 1921.
Or you could have been born black anywhere in America in the 1980’s in which case you’d probably be on the wrong side of the digital divide, so you wouldn’t be blogging here.
I’m not asking you to feel sorry for “black” people. I’m just asking you to consider how different your life would be if you had NOT been born 100% European American in America.
I like Canadians. If the CIA meddles in every country in the world, then Ian can certainly give his opinion about us. Plus his economic advice is better than a lot of others.
.
Machiavellian pure power politics is an improvement over Alpha Moron politics
Thats an interesting question.
———–
sure is!
one of the things that appeals to me about your idea is that depending on the amount of work to be done (in sampling the tranches) and the resources available to do it (number of people and their experience/expertise) one can decide to do more (or less) sampling and increase (or decrease) confidence intervals for the data obtained. completely flexible approach to the problem. i like.
From what I have heard and read, this is true. It shows how you can have a really nifty mathematical model but it is still garbage in garbage out. I think this worked both at the level of how the tranches were put together but also how they were evaluated by the ratings services. As the terms of the loans became more fictitious, the default rates remained essentially unchanged.
Foreclosing of possibilities.
I apologize SD.
Your credentials with me as a liberal are unquestioned. My post was a little too strident, given I know who you are.
I digg under the pseudonym “looking4aparty.”
707!!! thank you for the drollery
Picked up a little of that recently, but that’s not the common usage of “black” in the U.S. I’ll be cognizant of that in the future.
I was referring to Obama’s being a member of a disadvantaged class. That’s all. If my choice of words offended you, I apologize.
such vigorous discussion!
some are even expressing reservations about voting Democratic, no matter what!
a word from the wise - if you post such views repeatedly, the moderator corps will have to start screening every post you make.
it is officially unspecified, but demonstrably true - this sort of opinion is strongly discouraged, especially in the 60 days before the election - it might suppress turnout!
everyone work within the rules, and then you are as free as can be!
(paraphrasing from the german)
Why is it that to get this through the house they have to add features to appease the pissed off conservatives? Liberals and progressives are pissed off too, and we’d like a tax increase on those who made this mess.
watching PALIN on Keithand Rchels continuous loop
OBAMA/BIDEN 08 ………………or BUST!!!
and it sounds like Tina Fey
Well, we’ll see. People can show up, become members on the spot, and then force an endorsement decision for the next meeting. But at that next meeting, only those who’ve been members for three months can vote. Many, many SF Democrats love Nancy. So, it’s likely they will show up and vote to endorse her.
But the idea that they have to do that is rather pleasant.
I love it when we all get along.
Ian:
You are a real trooper. You put heart, soul, extraordinary energy and talents into this effort. Thank you.
Wow.
If you are correct, this is huge.
What resources would we as liberals need to do this. Who would pay us? Could I contribute to you, Hugh, to work on it. I send FDL ten bucks a month. I would mail a check for $50 to you tomorrow, if you thought it would help you. You mean so much to this community in terms of what you have already given. I could do more after Xmas and I think many other FDLers would consider it too.
The disease is unregulated capitalism. Chavez’ “new socialism” is probably closest to a pragmatic approach. Socialism stifles innovation. Without innovation we end up with food, clothing, shelter and not much else. Smith and Ricardo’s theories assumed a “perfectly functioning market.” That is nowhere near the reality, although the “free marketeers” would have us believe as much. We are seeing the results of their free market ideology.
thats what really is LIPSTICK ON A PIG imo
Whoops! My bad.
Familiar voice, but new to me.
Welcome to the Lake!
Communism was unrealistic and outdated by the 1920’s. Marx and Engels never envisioned the advancement in industry made after the beginning of WWI. Communism is a subset of socialism and as such suffers from the same ills.
everyone i met from the old Soviet Union were very limited in their desires and expectations,and therefore their creativity
I think we are already in the 20-25% range. In the last 7 years or so, the figure I have heard was about a 60% run up in housing values. The corresponding decline from that would be about 40%. As in, if you had a house in 2001 worth $100,000 and its value increased to $160,000 before the bubble bursting, a 40% decline in the $160,000 value would bring it down to $104,000.
Very gentle reminder:
Sock-puppeting is prohibited. Pick a name and hold on to it, please. Thanks.
Thanks for the encouragment it is appreciated.
That’s Obama’s first real act as the presumptive President and as the Democratic party’s de-facto leader.
To my way of thinking, it’s his second. He’d already sown up the nomination when the FISA “reform” bill was passed. Anyway, I don’t find this action of his in the least surprising. It’s who he is.
on that ill say good nite
Thanks for the apology.
There is tremendous variety and disagreement within those who had slave ancestors about how to describe themselves. Some prefer “African American,” some prefer “black.” I think all would prefer to be treated as Americans whose ethnicity is not relevant.
FWIW, what makes it so tough, living in the US, is that they can never escape it. It’s visual, pigmentation, lip size, hair; and for many it’s in their speech, eubonics. That’s something they had no control over. It was function of centuries of legalized white supremacy. No matter where they are, they are either not ghetto enough or not enough of an oreo. They have no escape and I think it’s one reason so many suffer from hypertension, substance abuse, and heart disease.
i am so out of my depth. please, take what i say fwiw - i’m just struggling to understand like everyone else here. that said, this is what i think happened. from yesterday’s UC:
it looks like an old bill, H.R. 1424, was used by the senate and amended by dodd today. here’s the note that thomas now has on it:
does that help?
This kid isn’t running anywhere but I’m done playin’ pattycake.
BooRadley,
Thinking more about what you said. To repeat in my words to see if I understood what you said: the term “black” as used by U.S. “blacks” refers only to descents of slaves, regardless of how much “black” blood is in their genetic makeup? And because Obama’s “blackness” comes from a non-slave African, he would not be called “black” by U.S. descendants of slaves?
I ask out of a sincere interest to learn. I previously thought the term referred to a person with some “black” genes in the lineage. (Did pick up your distinction a little bit recently as I mentioned. There has also been some mention of why should you call a person who’s 1/2 black and 1/2 white “black.” I’ve often wondered that myself, but someone explained it as a bad legacy of the “one drop of blood principle.”)
Oh that we would be beyond making such distinctions. But we aren’t. So I’m trying to make my way thru the minefield while having a civil discussion. Help me.
((BooRadley)) ((eCAHNomics))
*g*
Ah, but the wonderful exceptions to the rule, namely Shostakovitch, who wrote wonderful music under contraints to praise the rulers.
But then there were all those western European composers who did same during an earlier geographically different era.
Thanks!
(((selise)))
(((eCAHN)))
Just lovin these hugs.
Right, but if the mortgage has first position, then any reduction in the present value of the property would be cushioned by the equity, and so in many cases no discount will be needed at all.
Example: If the house started out at $100,000 property valuation in 2001 vs. a $50,000 mortgage, then ran up to $160,000 value vs. maybe a $47,000 mortgage, then ran down to a $104,000 vs. maybe a $45,000 mortgage — then if the mortgagee defaulted and the mortgagor foreclosed, the full balance of the mortgage is still there to be recovered at sale (or most of it if the property isn’t too trashed — another reason to avoid evictions!), and so there is no net loss for the mortgagor, indeed maybe a nice profit. So that mortgage should not get a 40% discount on the mortgagor’s balance sheet, in fact it shouldn’t get even a 20% discount, it should not receive any discount at all.
The only circumstance where you get into trouble and need to start discounting on the balance sheet is when the mortgaged amounts exceed, or nearly exceed, the current market value of the property, AND the mortgagee does not make the payments.
It would legalize some potentially really irresponsible behavior by depository institutions, which under the same law have just been given a bigger contingent claim on the public purse through the FDIC limit being raised (which might not of itself have been such a bad thing to do).
Or put it another way, it would remove a regulatory tool from the Comptroller of the Currency/Federal Reserve arsenal during a time when standard banking business models are going to be under a lot of strain as it is. It just invites more fraud.
What might make matters even worse would be if there’s nothing in the bill that expands the FDIC insurance fund. (I don’t know if there is. I haven’t had time to read the damn thing;| ) Everyone assumes that the FDIC would get a special Fed facility or Treasury loan as needed, but one of the lessons of the S&L crisis was that obvious policy responses like that could be manipulated: Part of the setting of the Keating Five interventions was that the FSLIC fund had just about run out at a time when there were still many insolvent banks that should have been closed, and the FHLB Board was having to seek a congressional appropriation.
Oh, by endgame, I mean that I don’t think the USA would survive another round of crisis after this one, if it survive this one.
Spoiler alert (not)
Noonan’s up on TDS. Will not reveal how he makes fun of her nor how she embarrasses herself.
You deserve ‘em. :)
Conversations with people lately suggest that many are very much done with ‘pattycake’ games.
The Political Class have, clearly, not had their fingers to the wind …
Never have I witnessed the quiet anger and resolve that is beginning to coalesce, not even around the ‘war’ in Vietnam …
There is deep disgust.
And, equally deep, distrust of the Political Class.
Unfortunately, progresses have not been working on framing ideas in such as way as to allow them to readily suggest plausible and embracable alternatives and ‘blueprints’ for a future that would find ready appeal if it were fleshed out.
But also, there is a puacity of genuine leadership, and the progressive community is, too often, modest to a fault (and it is a false modesty at that).
No apologies necessary. If you hadn’t asked those questions hopefully someone else would have. They help fill in the blanks. Anybody thinks I got this all figured out…
(((RonD))) You too.
(((FDL))) for all of us, especially tonight, when we have all been raped.
Thanks, ecahn. I am so looking forward to her election postmortem.
Wow…no spoilers, but…
Don’t miss Stewart and Noonan.
Thanx for the ’splain, PD. I hope a lot of smart folks are taking a very very good look at this whole thing while there’s still (perhaps) time to make a couple adjustments at the House side.
Ding ding ding. It’s a good one. Those of you in later time zones, must see.
Glenzilla at 3:30 pm EDT:
Glenn’s entire article is a “must read” for anyone who’s following this stuff.
That’s about right in Florida. For those who are lucky enough to find a buyer.
Specifically about music:
The US and the Soviets were forever sattelites around the Musical Capitols of Europe. In fact, it was not until WWII that either were a major force in the music world of composing, or stellar solo performers. [Rachmaninoff, Horowitz, etc.]
Further in fact, the forms of both countries early modern music [1900-1932]included many extremely innovative forms (syncopation, polyrythm, 12 tone, blue note in jazz in Alexandr Scriabin ALONE, not to mention Gershwin) that actually made both the US and USSR to be considered “inferior” in the “tasteful” European world.
The crack made about creativity, while specific to the people that commenter had met in life, which inspired your response is not factual on a cultural historical basis, nor is it useful.
It is a sad comment indeed that Peggy Noonan is far more qualified to be VP than Sarah Palin.
If they actually did understand it, they’d have been able to explain it by now. And they haven’t.
i’m listening to bernie sanders again and the third time through is even better than the second, which was better than the first. for me, a necessary corrective for listening to the rest of the senate all day.
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/.....5&n=2
I’m pretty sure that’s way too simple. Pools will have 4000 notes from all over everywhere. The price will relate to location and the economy in the location of the notes. Some will be weighted to California, some in Nevada, and so on, but many will be from all over. I don’t see why any historical data is useful in, say, California, while it might be in, say Kansas. But the local economy is even more important in price determination, because it bears on housing prices, and employment.
We’re talking about a whole lot of money. How can the financial institution sell stuff, not on a market, without getting the best price? To do that, they will have to do the calculation I am describing. I don’t even think they have the information. I think it sits on the computers of the servicing companies and the trust that holds the notes.
Finally, I think Paulson’s plan is to overpay as a way to capitalize the institutions, and that he will cheat on the price calculation to avoid the need for warrants. We are going to get totally screwed.
That would be all of us, wouldn’t it? It’s all about where you draw lines.
Someone very close to me was adopted, and could be about five different ethnicities by appearance, but will never know the lineage. Makes filling out those government forms a hassle. This person identifies as an American and nothing else, and has an affinity for the culture of the adoptive family.
How does a seemingly “anglo” person know that there wasn’t some “mixing” at some point in their heritage generations back? We’re all mixed! The whole concept of “race” is meaningless to me, and trying to make convoluted distinctions to define people is a fruitless endeavor IMO.
But Noonan talks with her eyes closed - world leaders would think she had dozed off. :)
Tchaikovsky, Glinka, Galzunov, many others that could be mentioned. How can you possibly assert that Russian music only came into being after WWII? They were a leading force in European romanticism in the 19th century.
Not only not working on but not being able to achieve a common ground of ideas. The fragmentation is what has held progressives back these many years. And they need more fire in their belly. Think themselves to death before they do anything.
Growing up I heard stories about my 100% German grand parents going nuts, because their eldest daughter married a “goddamn irishman.” When my Dad, the youngest of eleven married a woman who was half french and half Irish, his parents were too old to care.
I really can’t help you, beyond saying it’s complex and inviting you to read about the economic disenfranchisement that the descendants of slaves went through after the Civil War.
It was against the law for them to receive education before the civil war. After the civil war, legalized white supremacy meant there were no schools for them to attend. In the state of Florida in the 1920’s, there were four high schools that admitted students of both genders that were not 100% European American. That insured that you would have a whole lot of very uneducated descendants of slaves. Illiteracy and innumeracy, regardless of ethnicity are excellent predictors of unemployment, bankruptcy, substance abuse, divorce (I don’t mean that in a pejorative way) mental illness, incarceration.
I know a lot of people at FDL have serious problems with organized religion. I do think, however, the Xtian notion of original sin, can be a helpful one. If you look at the Parable of the talents, for example, not everyone is dealt the same cards. Some people have more talents than others. I can’t guard Latrell Sprewell in basketball. But, I know what high school he went to and I know he got a lousy education there.
I believe in holding all healthy adults accountable, regardless of ethnicity, gender, age, or orientation. I also believe that some ethnic groups historically got a raw deal in America.
Obama has never asked for repayment of the wages the slave were never paid. He takes a huge rip for that from many (not all)people who had slave ancestors.
I apologize. I don’t know how helpful any of this. Part of dealing with “black people,” means coming to grips with my “whiteness.” That’s uncomfortable. For most “whites” in America, we don’t have to consider our ethnicity (unless you’re older and you’re Polish). We can just “be ourselves,” independent of our ethnic histories. People in the US who are not 100 European American, can’t ever do that. Because the leadership of the country is so overwhelmingly European American, they’re always aware of it.
These things are just my take. Others might have a different, better one.
Thanks, it does kind of confirm the mechanics of what happened. Now, the note you’ve quoted referred to the Senate action. I believe the House did something similar, which resulted in a different number for their version of the bill on Monday &38230; I suppose thomas will have an annotation for that, too …
This is a little interesting. Maybe I’ll look into it further. Boy is my tolerance for opacity dropping. Again, thanks for giving it a shot.
Or put differently, why anyone should be asked to draw lines on racial or ethnic backgrounds? Why should there be Qs on a form? (Actually it is still very advantageous in practical terms, as the data collected in that fashion allow invesitgation of discrimination.) Long for the day when racism, sexism is irrelevant. Not yet.
He did lay it all out in fine fashion. I may give it another go in the morning.
Apparently the Repub-Dem deal stuck and the Independent had no power.
What happens next? Will the House pass it as is or break the deal? I’m guess they too are in on this deal, but they tried once and couldn’t hold it together. It’ll be interesting to see.
See my 353.
Still workin’ angles to understand this thing. Here’s another angle: Is THIS the reason for the bailout? (Sorry for the big orange link, to those irritated by that kinda stuff.)
While I appreciate and agree with much of FDL’s content, I think the reaction here is breathlessly hyperbolic. I am a finance professional (foreign, independent firm (non-banking too), zero stake in this bill), and though that doesn’t mean squat when it comes to legislative analysis, I can tell you that theory and outcome in economics are oceans apart, and none of us really knows how this will all play out.
Condemning Obama to one term and vulnerability to impeachment? Really? As the Washington Post notes below (tomorrow’s editorials), I think many are underestimating the three pressures of politics, economics, and especially time. Time is so critical now, some of you have no idea. I could give a dozen examples, but check out Duke Energy drawing $1bn on their $3bn line to have cash on hand–and to keep their line from getting pulled. If Humpty Dumpty falls, you may not be able to put him back together again.
“The point is that TARP is the only plan on the table that has both a reasonable chance of political success and a reasonable chance of economic success. Under the circumstances, which at the moment include a mounting worldwide financial collapse, we do not have time to run a legislative seminar on the theory and practice of financial rescue.”
Well, I’m older and I’m (1/2) Polish, which is why I changed my surname when I married.
There was an author on Book-TV last weekend (would link but BookTV site seems to be nonfunctioning for past events) who talked about the post Civil War era for blacks in the south. Very compelling and making every attempt to learn.
As a financial professional, which of the several financial system problems that the US faces would you say the Senate bill addresses well, vs. what more still needs to be done?
Except this is not quite what happened. In the peak bubble years 2004-2007, people bought a $160,000 house that was a $100,000 house a few years previously and took out a mortgage with little or no down payment. That house now can’t be sold at $120,000. So the homeowner is looking at negative equity. And housing prices continue to decline. There is also the case of homeowners who saw their house go from $100,000 to $160,000 in value and were encouraged to take out a loan against the increased value. They too are looking at negative equity. Finally, we have to look at what the face value is of the paper (CDOs) and what a current value for them would be. This is where 40% again comes in because it could be used as a base value for the purpose of refinancing mortgages for distressed homeowners. But I would be the first to agree with you that these numbers are not fixed in cement. They are, however, a starting place to fix real value to real assets and also the paper derived from them.
Hey Scrappy - Welcome to the Lake!
from cspan’s transcript (their caps, not mine, sorry)
no, senator sanders, you are not the only person in america who thinks that.
This far left revolutionary needs to get some sleep before the Gestapo kicks the door in.
Be good to yourselves, and all other living things.
Namaste
(((selise)))
I do not assert they weren’t a force. I claim they were un-acknowledged, and looked down upon by Euro elites.
Tschaikowski was HATED by Europe which is why he was the first principle conductor of what came to be the NY Met. In fact, the Tschaikowski Piano Concerto #1 could NOT be debuted in Europe, and was actually debuted in Boston in October, 1875.
The “un-elites”, provincials so to say, of the US and Russia/USSR in music actually cooperated around and in spite of the Euro dominance, up until the post WWII time.
That was my point.
The neo-cons are experimenting. They want to destroy this country. They broke Humpty already. It gets tiresome to hear FDL getting the blame. But it is not the time to blame the neo-cons.
Ah, thanks for explaining. U reveal my presentism. I never knew that the Russian composers weren’t the giants in their time that they are now. (BTW, I’m a balletomane, so Russia stands REALLY tall for me.)
Right, I agree totally there are such cases. My point is that we need to characterize the mix of underwater vs. above-water mortgages, because they are not 100% underwater, and once we do, we will have a rational basis for establishing a discount rate to use as an alternative to forced mark-to-market valuations of $0. (And yes, this needs t be reckoned on a per-locality and per-market-segment basis, not on a per-lender basis.)
(Actually even if the property is underwater, the value doesn’t go to $0, it’s still bounded by the market decline.)
I sure hope so, too. I’ve been bugging my critters all week about these bills (a No in the House, 2 Yeses :( in the Senate —IL), and now I think I’m going to switch tactics slightly, to pointing out some of ideas that might trim back the thievery a bit.
One is to reallocate some of the funds up front to the FDIC, so that they are not in the position of never being able to make a substantial move. One result of the present FDIC inadequacy might the big buyouts we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks, WaMu and Wachovia. That second one, in particular, is a little worrisome because no one thinks that Citibank is all that healthy itself.
My wildly optimistic conjecture is that perhaps an FDIC that had a substantial insurance fund and a larger staff would have felt more comfortable taking over Wachovia, say, or even a behemoth like WaMu, directly, and then having some kind of auction for the assets. The result might have been the same, perhaps, but otoh maybe a better deal could have been obtained by a more open and less hurried process, who knows? Not having that substantial fund and other resources, the present FDIC had little choice but to proceed with quite a bit of speed and stealth, because they couldn’t afford to trigger a run, or at least more of a run that the quiet run that in fact took place on these banks.
So, I’m going to suggest trying for more FDIC funds.
Attackerman is across the way!
When We Lock Horns, We Can Go Harder Than Busta
Sleep well, SD!
We really need to have a beer or three one night.
i’m sorry, i didn’t realize you were asking about the house action. yes, i think it was something similar on H.R. 3997. here are monday’s links to get you started. and here is the note that is now on H.R.3997 at thomas:
:)
Here’s a3 minute example; a USSR raised pianist, playing Scriabin, a pre-Soviet Composer, yet revered {even thogh the guy was nuts}
amen.
lol. i may rip an mp3 and post it for fun.
That’s not my point. As the bubble progressed, mortgage terms became more and more detached from reality and so the likely default rates on tranches increased. By sampling tranches by age, you can plot the relationship between age (or terms) and default rate. From this, you can an idea of the overall quality and value of tranches. Because there are lots of them out there, you can’t individually evaluate all mortgages in all tranches. But you can model them statistically. And the point is to use this information to establish price. Is this a price that exists independently in some Platonic universe? No. It is a practical business calculation as happens countless times. The government is the sole buyer now. So as I have said, it is the market and it establishes the price. This avoids the information asymmetries that people have talked about with reverse auctions. This is just my opinion but I think it is a reasonable approach, especially because no matter what the government will have to spend large amounts of money to recapitalize the system.
Amen some more.
How weird is it, after Obama wins, how we’re going to hear endless diatribes from the right about the dangers of excessive executive power. The Republicans will instantly claim to be the party of transparency, as a club with which to beat Obama and the Democrats.
Why do I get the sense that this was gamed out after the electoral debacle of ‘06?
Regarding the recap through assets strategy, I’ve been keeping this article by John Hussman handy. I know pretty much nothing about accounting beyond A=L+C, but this article helped me see how some transactions might be better for recap purposes than others.
I like his idea of using a “superbond” (I think super might refer to its seniority above other investment bonds) instead. Sounds to me like it could be part of a Swedish solution.
You have to distinguish between local markets in terms of mortgage refinancing and the tranches which contain mortgages as masaccio notes from all over.
Must sleep. Good night all.
What Agence France Presse said tonight about the vote:
of course.
the ’90s on steroids.
I will admit to that suspicion myself…but this crew hasn’t been competent to do anything else, so why believe they could pull this off? I think it’s more a case of, they just pointed it at the ground and floored it, in the belief that it would never crash…and now that it turns out it can, they’re trying to pour enough fuel on it to pull it out of the dive. Whether the structure can stand the G-forces without ripping off the wings is still to be seen-or so it seems to me.
nite hugh, thanks to you and all for the conversation.
This will sound incredibly simplistic, but really the best thing about the bill is its existence. The credit markets needed some signal desperately. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not a great bill, it simply prevents catastrophe (maybe/for now). And the underlying structural problems remain, and cannot be resolved quickly or easily. I apologize, but there’s so much more that needs to be done that I could go on for days.
The final, brutal irony will of course be when a Republican Congress rescinds a bunch of the police-state shit they passed under Bush to keep that power away from Democrats.
Should that happen, we will owe the Republicans. That will suck.
Pardon the initiated…
If I were to tell you that a sweetener to the Gooper Critters (Republican House members) would push them over the edge to vote for it, and I told you that it was 2 words, each with three letters - like this:
XXX XXX
what would you speculate those words would be?
You will pardon the skepticism.
My opinion as someone who actually trades for a living? Sell the S&P 500 at 1,200, expect a decline to below 800. From a guy who predicted last October that we would get to where we are right now. The markets hate uncerainty more than anything, and the govt is saying with this bill that: a.they know the value of these securities better than any of the pros, and, b.that they will prevent the market from finding and establishing the true correct price for these securities. That equals uncertainty, writ large, for a long time to come. Look out below if the House passes it.
jebus. after that happy thought, i’m going to have to give sanders another listen or i’m never going to be able to sleep.
catch ya later. we still have to see this bill back in the house.
‘night!
(((selise)))
I can’t think of any way to sugar coat this, I’m afraid. Obama is not a leftist candidate. He never claimed to be a leftist candidate. None of his supporters portrayed him as a leftist candidate. There was one leftist candidate in the primaries and he (Kucinich) got nearly no support. Many people who are on the left supported and support Obama as a competent and decent middle of the roader who has the best chance of beating the Republican neo-fascist candidates.Yet people who are hostile to Obama’s candidacy keep jumping up and down and screaming that some action of his reveals him to be not a leftist candidate. Jesus, get another shtick. Nobody in their right minds would ever have placed Obama to the the left of Barney Frank, and Frank is a vociferous supporter of this stupid bill.
How about some reality here?
Tax cut, though I’m guessing it was a rhetorical question. I’m not sure what your point is, though. I’m not trying to champion the bill. It generally stinks. But the continuous liquidity injections around the world and the standstill in the interbank market are not illusions conjured up by the GOP to squeeze out concessions. I hope. Who knows when it comes to Baron Von Moneypants.
That would be correct.
I hate the bill, and am free to dispise its authors and their motives. Rarely do we know what they have in mind, but here’s a clue - some of the terms of the bill.
This is extortion, pure and simple.
Fair enough. It definitely, definitely is extortion. I just don’t know politically how to navigate a more successful resolution in light of the risks. I would think a failure to cooperate and a subsequent monetary collapse could cost the White House, which is why the bill now looks as it does.
Ian,
I understand your take on this post. I would have preferred a post about what we need to do to get a voice on changes for the House vote.
I’m not sure Obama had a choice. He wants to get elected and the guys he’s up against are mean enough to crash the market to make their point. You have credit him for some brains to have gotten where he is. How would the people who don’t want the bailout vote were the crash to come between now and November with Obama voting “No” and the Repubs pointing their fingers at him? Limbaugh blames Freddie Mack and Fannie Mae on the Dems and says those two failures are the problem. He doesn’t mention Lehman Bros, etc. etc. and the deregulation which was clearly a Repub phenomenon. Obama’s doing well under the circumstances. Ironically, he’s our only hope.
Look, who do you work for? Chances are you work for the rich. That’s the way it goes. People who have money, spend money. Obama isn’t an idiot. In fact I’m willing to bet $100 that he’s smarter than you, and he understands first, that a while this isn’t a bailout, it’s not necessarily a great deal for tax payers, and therefore, it’s important that, while the help to Wall Street is necessary, it also has to have some restrictions. Those are in the bill. The roll over government is to create a stable society. Sure, if you want upheaval, mass layoffs, a stagnant economy, and the rising crime that comes with all those things, then I’m sure you’d like to see economic collapse. However if you’re a centrist Democrat that optimistically believes in the future of America and positive change, then you likely want to see America stable, with people working. I’m surprised at all the liberals who are siding up with the Right, thinking this is a “bailout” where free money is being handed to the rich. Learn about the scenario, take some classes in economics, get your law degree from Harvard and gather your 20 best economic advisers and then start giving advice to Obama.
Thank you.
Protest votes got George W. Bush elected; try to rethink that.
Cast your vote as if everyone in America will vote the way you do.
I’m with gloria; Obama did not put us in this situation. He supported the last compromise bill, which was for all its shortcomings a DECENT plan (that Hillary Clinton also supported) to keep the economy going until after the election. But of course, thanks to the know-nothingism of the extreme left and extreme right (and I consider myself very liberal), it failed. Now the Senate has passed a WORSE plan with “sweeteners” for Republicans. Thanks, progressives!
I think it is unfair to say Obama betrayed the middle class
in supporting this bill. I saw Warren Buffet on
the Charlie Rose show. Now Mr. Buffet is
one who advocates that the middle class
should be paying less taxes. He gave a somewhat
detailed argument that if you look at the payroll taxes that
the non-investment class pays, that its disproportionate
to what the rich like him pay. He sees no reason, by the
way, why investment income should be taxed lower
than worker’s wages, as it presently is. I have heard, and read
him make this argument for the middle class and less
than middle class, many times before. BUT
as for the present economic condition of this country,
Warren Buffet thinks that “the patient” “i.e. the
economy) is “on the floor” in cardiac arrest, and
needs the $700 billion, pretty much in the manner
that Paulson first outlined (and that the Senate, with
some modification) has adopted. And its needed
in the next few days, to restore “confidence in
the markets”, i.e. so banks will start lending to each
other again; and so businesses can get the loans
they need, etc, and so people will stop taking
their money out of the banks etc etc.
Warren Buffet, who as most people at least
in America should know, is one of the world’s
great investors (and the richest man in the world)
thinks that the deal with AIG is a good
investment for the U.S. citizen. He gave
support for this opinion, but I can’t go into
everything he said. . . I wish everyone
could have seen Buffet on the Charlie Rose
show last night or this morning. Come to think
of it, it may be available on the PBS web site . . .
It is the evening show of October 1, 2008, which
was replayed today October 2nd.
One last thought: If Warren Buffet is correct,
that this $700 Billion is needed in order to
avert a probable econonic disaster, then it
is fair to say that if we are lucky enough to
get Obama as president, that Obama will
be able to do much, much less in the way
of programs for the not-so-rich, if
our economy goes bust because no bill
was past.