Let’s start with Iran. Over the past several years many of us have worried about an attack on Iran. We don’t want to be the boy who cried wolf, but we also better not ignore the signs – whether they point towards imminent war or a more subtle but no less disastrous direction.
After all, George Bush has – according to Seymour Hersch –
on more than one occasion vowed not to leave the White House with Iran's nuclear program still intact.
Several recent news stories are worrisome. From Asia Times Online, 9/13/08:
The United States government has imposed new sanctions on Iran, this time targeting its shipping industry, by blacklisting the main shipping line and 18 subsidiaries, accusing the maritime carrier of being engaged in contraband nuclear material, a charge vehemently denied by Iran.
While the economic impact of the measures against Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) will be minimal ... this latest US initiative against Iran sends a strong signal about the US's intention to escalate pressure on Iran, even unilaterally if need be.
Haaretz, 9/14/08:
Despite reservations in Washington regarding a possible Israeli strike on Iran, the American administration will supply Israel with sophisticated weapons for heavily fortified targets, the U.S. administration announced…
The Pentagon's announcement, which came on Friday, said the U.S. will provide Israel with 1,000 units of Guided Bomb Unit-39 (GBU-39) - a special weapon developed for penetrating fortified facilities located deep underground.
The $77 million shipment, which includes launchers and appurtenances, will allow the IAF to hit many more bunkers than currently possible. Although each bomb weighs 113 kilograms, its penetration capabilities equal those of a one ton bomb, according to professional literature.
(Note that just a week ago, Pat Lang was hoping that the refusal at that point of the US to agree to Israeli demands – including their request for these bombs, suggested that the saner heads in the military had won over the Cheney cabal – does the new sale point to approval of the other Israeli demands?)
And for some of us, most worrying of all, a report from the Jersusalem Post on 9/1/08:
The Dutch intelligence service, the AIVD, has called off an operation aimed at infiltrating and sabotaging Iran's weapons industry due to an assessment that a US attack on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program is imminent, according to a report in the country's De Telegraaf newspaper on Friday.
The report claimed that the Dutch operation had been "extremely successful," and had been stopped because the US military was planning to hit targets that were "connected with the Dutch espionage action."
The impending air-strike on Iran was to be carried out by unmanned aircraft "within weeks," the report claimed, quoting "well placed" sources.
While Jpost notes it cannot confirm this report, De Telegraaf is a very reputable Dutch paper not given to wild hunches. Whether this report is a warning to Iran or an actual intelligence leak, Kaveh L Afrasiabi in the Asia Times Online rightly notes:
The outgoing George W Bush administration is slowly but surely taking strident actions that will effectively tie the hands of the next US president, particularly if that happens to be Democratic candidate Senator Barack Obama, who in the past has expressed an interest in direct dialogue with Tehran.
Should the new sanctions prove as catalysts for more aggressive US actions against Iran in international waters or the Persian Gulf, as called for by some members of US Congress seeking the interdiction of Iranian cargo ships, then by the time Bush's successor takes over at the Oval Office next January, the climate in US-Iran hostility may have degenerated to such depths that it would take a monumental effort to undo what appears to be Bush's last hurrah.
While George is turning up the heat on Iran, he’s also authorized attacks on Pakistan – a move that Bernard at Moon of Alabama reminds us is:
This is an open declaration of war against Pakistan.
The commander of Pakistan's armed forces understood that and promises to fight back:
"The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country will be defended at all cost and no external force is allowed to conduct operations inside Pakistan," [Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani] said.
That grave sentence is the last one in the AP report.
Have the people of the United States understood what Bush is doing here?
He just started a war with a nuclear armed nation of some 170 million people….
General Kayani just announced layed down a marker: "The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country will be defended at all cost."
It is time for people to understand what "all cost" includes. People may be more familiar with the term "all options are on the table." That is, what I think, Kayani meant.
While Bush is apparently determined to leave a legacy worthy of the four horsemen of the apocalypse, he’s also making sure his friends at the major arms merchants get a final goody bag in case a President Obama is less willing to line their pockets:
NEW YORK: The Bush administration is pushing through a wide range of foreign weapons deals in a bid to rearm Iraq and Afghanistan and contain North Korea and Iran, The New York Times reported.
The deals range from tanks, helicopters and fighter jets to missiles, remotely piloted aircraft and warships, the Times said in its Sunday editions. The weapons and other military equipment foreign sales have totaled more than $32 billion in 2008, compared with $12 billion in 2005.
While the focus has been on the Middle East, sales extend to northern Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe and Canada, the Times said.
"This is not about being gunrunners," the Times quoted Bruce Lemkin, the Air Force deputy undersecretary who has coordinated many of the largest sales, as saying. "This is about building a more secure world."
Gosh, I feel more secure already.
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Aloha, Siun!
Thank you Siun, the world would be a much more peaceable place if we could rid ourselves of the wretched arms market and the greedy dealers that drive arms sales.
I won’t feel secure until Bush is out of office and Obama is in charge. I would feel even safer if Obama would once again state clearly his intentions to investigate any and all alleged crimes committed during the Bush regime. This warning just might make George hesitate to start another war in Iran.
I’m sure it’s a futile wish but I can hope that folks in Iran and other countries would just not do anything that BushCo can remotely find provocative in the next few months knowing that it will most likely be a more reasonable group in charge starting 1/21/09.
Or I might be an idiot.
Aah, Siun ya left out the F-16 fighters that Maliki wants to purchase, which has even the Kurds worried… I’d post the link, but, Aswat Aliraq seems to be down today…!
There are two options open to bush at this point: he will “take out” Iran’s nu-cu-lear capabilities before Jan 20, or, he will declare martial law and stay in office…
The video is must-see
Evening all … Elliott, nodding, I thought folks might find a taste of history helpful.
Some of the Republican goals…Iraq’s oil, Russia’s oil, Venzuela’s oil, Iran’s oil. Just a start hey!
Republicans have killed and gutted Iraq and mounted the trophy..military nationalism for the coming election.
I don’t believe that
but was stunned that the recent Georgian escapades may have been related to Israel attacking Iran. Didn’t see that one coming.
Well, I suppose, when one is a warmonger/war-profiteer one would want to sell as much arms to America’s enemies and would want to make sure the world is left a mess before the next president takes office.
Ding.
It will be his retirement. Spit. Ding. ;-)
The report in Jpost based on the Dutch report was very troubling - I was able to find other references and it got picked up in many international papers just not here … there was a reference to a mention of this report being also in a UK paper but I have not been able to find that.
Apparently even if the countries in W’s sights have done nothing he claims they have done, or have done nothing at all to harm ‘Merkah, it does not matter.
Provocations can always be manufactured, though of course, our counrty would never, ever do such a thing …
The thing is, we simply don’t know what would ’set off’ a Bush, a Mc$ame or a Palin.
Its all so mysterious. Especially when magical ‘thinking’ is involved.
must have missed those threads - can you flesh that out a little for me ?
I sure wish we - the American People - would sit up and take notice. Bushco claimed that Saddam had WMD. He protested and protested that he did not. The US weapons inspectors said he didn’t. Saddam provided thousands of pages of documents to the US to try and prove he didn’t. Nothing worked. We invaded. WMDs? None to be found.
Iran has been protesting and protesting that it is not building weapons. Our own NIE said they had stopped the weapons program back in 2003 - when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenie said that ‘nuclear weapons and Islam are incompatible’. The UN/IAEA inspectors say they can find no evidence of a weapons program. (The Iranians ARE permitted to enrich uranium and build reactors for peaceful purposes under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - they are a signatory)
Once burned - twice shy. I wish that were true. And every time anyone - and this includes bloggers and commenters here, act like Iran is doing something wrong - they buy into the meme that Bushco if pushing. Obama has too - and for that I am angry. He has access to much more information than I do and should know better.
I am so sick of this. Iran has helped us in the GWOT - multiple times. Including when Maliki attacked al-Sadr and was getting his butt kicked. We couldn’t stop the fighting - so who did we ask to step in? The general in charge of the Iranian Quds (we have named them a terrorist organization!). And instead of the Iranians saying ‘up yours’, they came, and got a cease fire.
Grrrrr!
Roads to Iraq mentions it…
Good Evening Siun and Firedogs,
have told the story before of being rescued and hidden by a bazaar merchant during an anti-american rally in Tehran just before the Shah left
The merchant was once a personal aide to a member of Mossadeq’s ‘kitchen cabinet’. We corresponded until he passed away in the early 80’s. My companion was confused about the situation and he explained the coup and the Shah’s brutality to her - ending with a finger pointed at the crowds outside telling us in Farsi, your american chickens have come home to roost - and you will pay for decades
Mahalo !
from the Washington Times
Excellent truthing, loky.
Hello Siun,
From the outset, Dubya has appeared determined to outperform every negative benchmark set by his father’s administration. Bush the Elder invaded Panama and left a conflict in Somalia for his Democratic successor. Bush the Younger invaded and will leave unresolved conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq and perhaps, as his dubious crowning glory, intends to bestow upon his Democratic successor (if that should be the case) a smoldering hornets nest in Iran. Additionally, he has sown the seeds of future conflicts across the globe. It goes to show that it is unwise to underestimate the (destructive) potential of a C-student.
thank you too ! that’s a rather large duh! aint it ?
If this isn’t gunrunning, what the heck is it?
Never thought I would be doing this, but here’s something from a guy who has his finger on the pulse of the Neo-Cons that states precisely what is going on.
“Israel of the Caucuses” by Arnaud de Borchegrave in the Washington Times.
Apparently Israel has two airfields in Georgia established as either a staging area for attacks on Iran…or as a landing/refueling site after the attacks.
granted, there’s no love lost btw Turkey & Iran, but I don’t see how Turkey would want to be involved in this in any way - no one in the middle east wants to be the guy that facilitates Israeli attacks on a muslim country,
sounds like more Cheney pipe dreamin’ to me
Many years ago - when I was in an early Amnesty International group in NYC - I met two Iranians who had been tortured by Savak (the Shah’s security force, trained by our CIA) and that conversation has never left me. We sat in a lovely living room, sipping drinks, and they detailed what had been done to them … step by step. We have many sins to answer for.
Actually this brings up a point or series of them that I and some others were making for the last few years. In the 5 1/2 years that the US has been in Iraq it has had the time to build, train, and equip an Iraqi army and air force at least a couple of times over. The fact that Iraq still lacks an air force and several other major components required for a functioning, self-sustaining military is compelling evidence that the Bush Administration was never really interested in creating such a force. They wanted Iraq quieter but they do not want it independent.
Yeah, quite frankly I think the Iranians have been given plenty of reasons TO build nuclear weapons. Think of the difference between Iraq and North Korea…
And our shabby treatment of Iran over the years - some of it actually criminal - is yet another one. We get mad because of the hostage crisis. Cry me a river. We essentially held their entire country hostage when we deposed a democratically elected leader and installed the Shah. We liked the little despot, after all. So the country of Iran suffered through his ‘leadership’ for decades.
Pffft.
Spreading democracy my foot!
I have a hunch his last hurrah will be blunted by the collapses of the Wall Street Banks. Lehman, Merril Lynch in one fell swoop? Combined with Freddie and Fannie how can The market stand? Bear Stearns were crapshooters, but these? I think the chimps military ambitions might get swept away…
When Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirik reactor, it flew over Saudi Arabia with no by-your-leave from anyone. Flying over Turkey without Turkey’s persmission is not a problem for Israel.
I’d like to start a movement to get Congress to impose a complete and total ban on arms sales to ANYONE. I just don’t see how it is possible to justify selling anything to anyone if we really want peace. You cannot have peace if you keep arming everyone. Including ourselves.
Of course, I know the neo-cons don’t really want peace. They make too much money off war.
Hard to argue with that, Hugh! ;-)
Response SuburbanGrrrl at#6
I’m not a conspiricy enthusiast.
Bush/Chaney could declare a national crisis and remain in office.
We would do well to keep our eyes and ears open.
They are able to whatever they want whenever they want with impunity.
Their time in office is not over.
In fact, there has been little said in MSM about them lately.
What gives? I’m still hiding under my bed till Jan 21.
WayneC
I had an eerily converse experience -
at one of the many Happy Hours I indulged in at the Tehran Intercontinental, I was introduced to a General - Siun, I knew at the time the man was a war criminal - I asked him about Savak and then just watched him hold forth - it was Arendt’s Banality of Evil in the flesh - probably the creepiest experience of my life
he was of course, one of the first four executed after The Revolution
ps - you never saw these guys without U.S. Spooks and Defense Contractors buying the single malts - all of whom continued to pat our little hands and tell us to stop worrying - “the Peacock Throne was safe”
And Israel flew into Turkish air space during their odd little foray to attack something - still unclear - in Syria. Turkey issued a very mild complaint since something fell off of one of the Israeli fighter jets into their territory.
Among them is the fact that the U.S., the city on a hill and self-congratulatory paragon of democracy, overthrew a democratic Iranian government and replaced it with a monarch, The Emperor of The Peacock Throne.
What better way to distract from the horror show at home than a foreign adventure ?
This week may be very, very ugly in the financial markets.
I will defer to you - but will point out The House of Saud is Sunni, the Iranians are Shia
Now that is an experience … wow.
I remember my mother in law at the time going to Persia for the Shah’s big birthday party year long celebration …
Not to mention Savak and the fun things they did.
Just read Siun’s recounting of talking to two Iranians who had been ‘entertained’ by Savak, and am recalling the seventies and my own experience learning what had been done to an Iranian friend’s father and uncles by Savak …
As Siun says, we’ve much to answer for.
I recall that only a few months before the Iranian Revolution the Sunday supplement, Parade, ran a cover article on the Shah, with lots of quotes from Henry Kissinger, telling what a strong and secure ally the Shah was.
Evening, all…
Great post, Siun. I think it goes something like this:
Draw a line from Iraq through Iran, up to Georgia, along the Caspian, to Ukraine. The absorption of everything west of there into the American/ EU economic sphere seems like the obvious goals. Belarus and the Baltics would have some very hard choices….Russia is never going to sit still for this, which is why anti=missile systems are going into Poland and Czechoslovakia. The scope of the plan is actually fairly breathtaking, accomplishing by economic and diplomatic means what Operations Barbarossa and Blue could not by force. Would Bush try it?
You know he would.
very very ugly… is almost gilding the lily. They couldn’t give those banks away. Exposes some hideous truths. Wall street is naked and broke.
Well, the Shah kindof had to be didn’t he? After all, the US was the reason he was brought to power - and the reason he was ‘allowed’ to stay in power as well.
Puppets are always strong allies since doing otherwise would result in a new puppet being installed just as easily.
disgraceful
everyday, it’s a fresh new hell
The aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan is on station in the North Arabian Sea. The Theodore Roosevelt is in the Atlantic on its way to the Middle East. The Abraham Lincoln is in the Gulf of Thailand post-Iraq deployment.
Re Israeli use of Georgian air force bases. Possible but the Israelis would have to get their planes there in the first place. They would still need air refueling capability and this seems unlikely.
Response to lokywoky
You are correct. Hussien tried to play both sides of the WMD equation. On one hand he didn’t want his country at war with the US. On the other hand if Iran knew he had no WMD’s, they would have invaded him.
WayneC
Absolutely stunning video, Siun, and an excellent post as well.
I have long wished that George Bush had the intellectual capacity to conceive of himself as a Nixon-to-China president with regard to Iran. He, or Cheney, are the two Americans who could lead our nation, and Iran, to a re-conception of the relationship between our countries, which are natural strategic allies really.
But alas, per Woodward, Bush’s view of the Iranians is “they are all assholes.”
Such projection.
I learned a long time ago that everything that comes out of the neo-con’s mouths - the opposite is true.
Bush was yelling about al-Quaeda trying to form a ‘caliphate’. Yup.
Well, it wasn’t bin Laden who had grand designs - it was/is Bush/Cheney.
Now how about that??
Strange being close enough to touch evil, isn’t it?
Exactly. And who knows - that Iran isn’t playing at the same game. They don’t want US invading them either. We didn’t invade North Korea because we know they already have nuclear weapons. So…play the game, hope you don’t get burned.
ah … but the Israelis tested their refueling - and demonstrated it this past June … they can do it.
will never forget watching a massive street demonstration - hundreds of thousands - “Death to America”, “The Shah Must Go”, burning effigies, everything, from the safety of my 4th floor hotel room - while some Kissinger minion was on BBC poo pooing it all as “small pockets of dissatisfieds and n’er do wells”
made numerous trips to the region in my 8 years as a flight attendant - must have had a “spook magnet” sign, ‘ cause I met plenty (USAID my ass !)in that time, I met one, only one American who had a clue as to history, ethos, mindset of the people they lived with
Karma will ensure that they all come back as rat shit *sigh* Great post Siun but it bums me out as well.
saw it again in Thailand - “what Golden Triangle, where do you girls get this stuff ?!?!?”
Ah, we have a shared experience there, little different time frame perhaps.
In the summer of 1965 I had a wonderful lunch with a very congenial Generalissimo Francisco Franco, El Jefe.
Flying over Turkey will not be a problem. Cheney has been doing business with Turkey for years. They’re completely in the bag.
True lokywoky,It does seem to be the same old shit again. But this time we already have troops and was infrastructure in the Middle East. And, I have a feeling that there won’t be the ”welcome” we got when we invaded and occupied Iraq.
WayneC
An excellent article. Thanks for that link.
a little OT - is anybody else seeing an ad in the top right corner of this page advertising “Meet Single Persians Online”! (Iranianpersonals.com)
Surely I’m dreaming all this horrible shit - somebody wake me up please…
(or beam me up)
Air-to-air refueling? If so, that’s a very big deal.
I’d like to also call everyone’s attention to the Pakistan info - this will heat up and fast …
Out over the Med, awhile ago, wigwam!
More …
Pakistani jets ’sent to confront US drones’
Here you go … a CBS report on the maneuvers including the air to air refueling:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6xApA38InA
I disagree. The Israelis carried out a large exercise over the Mediterranean. That’s was for propaganda. They would need to position air tankers over hostile or contested territory. This would be extremely dangerous. The US in Iraq and the Iraqi government have said they will not allow overflights. Nor would they be unaware of any attempted overflight. The Saudis have AWACS so they would know of overflight of their territory unlike Osirak. There is an American-Turkish base at Incirlik so we and the Turks would both know of any attempt to use a northern route and the Turks would not be able to plead ignorance,and this could risk either war with Iran or a massive exacerbation of their Kurdish problems.
So to recap the Israelis could not use any air route to Iran without the awareness and complicity of neighboring states. There is a low probability that an Israeli strike would cripple Iran’s nuclear program or military capabilities. This would mean a very high probability that there would be payback from the Iranians down the road. So while some countries might have some interest in seeing the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program. This is a really bad risk-reward scenario.
It goes to how fruitcake the Georgians were that they allowed reconnaissance drones to be stationed at a couple of their airfields.
Thank you John … I saw a mention of that as I was finishing up the post so that link is very helpful!
Actually, Pakistan seems consigned to the raids… Pakistan pursuing diplomacy on raids
Oh, you can count on my paying attention. *g*
There are so many smoldering fires in the whole region that this is really dangerous. Or as CTuttle and I are fond of saying, “This is gonna get ugly,” in the typically military understatement.
Sorry, jayt
All I see is an ad for some books about the Constitution. What’ve you been clicking on anyway…
WayneC
Perhaps it is just that I’ve been distracted of late because I’d begun to form the opinion that Pakistan’s reaction to cross-border incursions had been rather muted and I wondered if some secret agreement had been reached. Your post is the first I’ve heard of the Kayani remarks, which don’t bode well.
Thanks Siun; I always appreciate your posts.
That “line” appears to be a variation of the pipelines Unocal and others have been working toward with the support of least Clinton and through 2 Bush admins. Bombing Afghanistan after an inadequate $43 million gift to the Taliban exceeded “economic and diplomatic means”.
Ian upstairs with some more sh*t hitting the fan
Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan… maybe we’re finally seeing the realization of the Domino Theory the hawks were so fond of talking about fifty years ago. The part they got wrong was about communism as the driving force.
So, what if these arms that Bush has sold end up hitting Detroit??
Thanks, Siun.
I don’t see the Pakistani’s mounting large military ops to interdict our SF people, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them form small guerrilla-type units for that mission. On the individual level that is really nasty warfare.
Al Qaeda does not exist. This is a myth and a fraud created by neo-cons, to impose a dictatorship in America. A British journalist agrees with this and claims the dangerous terrorists are the ones in the government itself. That is what Peter Hitchens Christopher’s brother, thinks.
Their geography was about a thousand miles off as well. Our influence in Central and South America seems to be waning as well. *g*
The legacy of the Shrub/Barnacle era: Who could have predicted?
Without Impeachment the Bushco administration has a green light from US Congress. You have not seen the end of the surprises. Nancy Pelosi is in a league with Benedict Arnold. “We are now considered the Imperial Royal Neocon States of Amerika”.
We are run by neocons who support the Zionist State expanding to rule the Middle East Much like NEBUCHADNEZZAR.the Persian King present day Iran.
Wacko religious nuts.
Siun:
Check this out from the WSJ
Can anyone open Digg? I tried but it gave me the ’something blew up’ routine three times.
I don’t know is Wazir tribesmen would welcome Pakistani SF any more than U.S. SF. The entire situation appears to be a colossal clusterf*ck.
I’ve been wondering for over 20 years when the Reagan/Bush Latin American chickens would come home to roost. Sometimes you almost start to believe U.S. hegemony isn’t all it’s cracked up to be…
It works for me, although the Diggs don’t seem to be showing up at the top of this page.
Thanks, rf. I’ll try again later.
If they’re any good the tribesmen won’t know they’re there until the action’s over and a little baksheesh afterwards does much to smooth things over.
Pakistan already has those small guerrilla type units for that mission; they are called the Taliban.
It means Hezbollah will crank it up with attacks and terrorism if Iran get hit Isreal fets hit. It the philosophy “an eye for an eye a tooth for a tooth”.Now the new chriatian doctrine ala Bushco. We are karma ladened.
Sun-of-a-bush!
Is there anyone more horrible than Henry Kissinger? When he speaks my morals crawl. Help me here please.