Former Pollster Pleads Guilty to Fabricating Results

Tracy Costin, the former owner of polling company DataUSA Inc., entered a guilty plea to conspiracy to commit mail fraud for fabricating the results of polls the company conduct on behalf of, among others, President Bush in 2004.

http://lawprofessors.typepad.c…..lster.html

That actually raises an interesting point I neglected: the pressure on polling companies to come up with a product of results and recommendations that confrim the beliefs and support the agendas of their clients.

In DC, that includes a lot of people on the Korporate K-Street Kash tit.

Bleached out, passionless language makes people justifiably suspicious, so that even the outcomes well intended message construction seeks to achieve are ultimately undermined as wimpy bureauspeak.

Exhibit A: Obama on Olbermann last night. He couldn’t give one straight answer.

Polling leading up to the Iraq War in 02 and 03 was particularly slanted, results which confirmed the Warmongers aims were trumpeted while those results not looking favorable towards war were not reported.

Great post. Our guys (and gals) always try to “tack to the right”. Only to find that their guy is already there, has been for a long time, has the vote there wrapped up and that tacking only made our guy look insincere and lost some supporters in the process.

and the O’Liely interviews continue a few more times. he shouild have waited to do KO until O’Liely was over. KO could have given him a second chance to explain some of his answers. Sad that he’s come to that. I’m not counting on Obama to get anything out of the debates.

Yesterday I heard Obama waffling – using every metaphor to describe lying possible, other than using the word “lying” itself. Olbermann pressed him on it.

The right in this country only responds to ass-kicking and power-brokering. If you’re perceived at all as anything less than a macho lunatic, they think you’re just a pussy, and “their guy can whoop yer ass!”

If you really just want to win elections, you have to take it to the lowest common denominator. Karl always does. If you want to take away their tax cut promise lines once and for all…you just have to say:

“No More taxes – EVER!”

The absurdity of it will shock some sense into the noise machine and the sheeple who buy into this crap.

Olbermann pressed him on it.

But he still never gave a straight answer.

and explain that less than 40% of corporations in this country pay ANY tax

WE NEED SOME hard hitting HARD hitting ads

And how will you pay for anything?

say: Cut waste

They hear: Screw poor & minorities.

In the 2006 election cycle, the Mainstream Media was fully complicit in the Rovian Brainwashing campaign to discredit “Exit Polling” as unscientific hoohah, when in fact it is the smoking gun EVIDENCE of election fraud used throughout the world. Ask International Elections Observers about the value of Exit Polling. Rove was pre-conditioning the electorate to accept manipulated election results.

The GOP employed a firm called Penn, Schoen, & Berland to skew exit poll results in order to achieve their own political ends. Watch out for this firm’s exit poll results in this years elections. They are on Rove’s payroll.

November 2, 2004: Overcoming a six point exit-poll advantage by Senator John Kerry, George Bush is re-elected President. Several statisticians have calculated the probability of this anomaly as one in a million — in effect, impossible.

I’ve seen it happens so many times, a candidate comes out swinging, goes on to win the nomination and then becomes so afraid of alienating ANY voters that they can’t take a whiz without first collecting poll data.

epu-ed a couple threads back, but speaking of sending messages, McCain is wearing his Navy cap today. While he surrounds his campaign with war mongers and war profiteers. And fills his campaign with LIES. And the LYING LIARS who tell them.

This video linky was posted earlier, must viewing.

Oh, I agree with you about the debates. Obama is brilliant at speeches, but not so good at the back and forths. I’m afraid.

Avoiding the word “lie” or liar” coming out of the mouth of the candidate…
But this ad uses another source to get it done. Look at the last graphic before the end tag-line.

The result in part is an Obama campaign that signals a willingness to extend Bush’s billionaire tax cuts while labeling McCain a hero and virtually apologizing for campaigning against such a fine American saint.

Obama is a different kind of politician, who says what he believes, no matter what! So therefore, maybe no pollster is making him say the Surge, which McCain claims to have advocated for early, has succeeded “beyond our wildest dreams” – he believes it!

As for the need for all options on the table against the terrible, great frightening threat from Iran, Obama says that because he believes it, and if he has to use tactical nukes against hardened targets, he will!

If Obama can peel away some “Attack Iran”, or “Invade Pakistan” or “Escalate the conflict in Afghanistan” voters away from McCain with this messaging, all the better, but these are things he’ll say and do anyway … what courage!

Obama has shifted away from a rational/liberal position and fallen in line behind GWB and McCain on several issues, e.g., FISA, Georgia, the Surge, the benefits of taxcuts for the rich. Can it be that message polling led him astray?

Yeah, he needs to be a little more uppity.

In all seriousness, I watched Olbermann and I had the same sort of nonplussed response, “God, just say the word. Say they are liars.”

You can call it a duck without getting into the pond and quacking with it.

I’m not implying it’s possible. I’m holding it out there as the end of the slippery slope in this Theater of Bread and Circuses.

The only way to take away the other side’s talking point is to take it entirely away (like cutting all taxes to zero), with a sly smirk, and force the other side to react – to bring the dialog back to reality.

How many years have we tolerated the canard that the Republicans are the only party of tax cuts, as though that were somehow the answer to anything (other than the largest national debt in the history of planet earth)?

When someone hands you a red herring, paint it even brighter red and hand it right back to them!

I have tried your linky twice and am not getting any sound

I thought BO’s been doing pretty good about calling them on shit. So what does he get: “Oh, he’s desparate.’ Screw that. keep doing it.

I’m hoping that Obama is pacing himself to peak, as far as attacks go, closer to the election as the bloom fades off the Palin honeymoon, which would ideally be a better time to use a knock-out punch on the McCain/Palin ticket… However, Palin’s growing popularity needs to be dampened constantly and thoroughly by calling out the lies one by one as they come out…there will be a time when McCain/Palin rhetoric will be repetitive and boring…that is when to go in for the final blow and knock them out of the race. We aren’t there yet.

And Barack approves this ad

Obama says that he doesn’t want 527s running negative ads on his behalf. I say “fuck him!” Many of us have more riding on this election than he does. He has health insurance, a seven figure networth, and a government-guaranteed retirement package.

And always, Always moves to the so-called “center” that the base disdains. The base loses its passion, is lukewarm to even showing up at the polls, and before you know it we’ve lost. Again.

Now if laypeople can figger this out, why can’t the Dem strategists?

I’m not at all saying polling should not be done, but I am saying that recommendations for political messaging based only on polling systemically lead to timid, conservative political messaging.

Bingo!

agree. they just seem so much smoother at bullshit than us.

BTW, Biden raised a good point on MTP re: Iraq. What now? Wghat next? Haven’t heard about the 100 year war much.

Yuk, I hate your framing on that one. Either the Obama/Biden campaign is subject to polling results and being led by the nose or those are the natural inclinations of the candidates.

I only hope it is a misjudgment in perception on my part, if I understand your point, because I don’t like the alternatives.

If he loses he will blame the loss on racism, but he could also become the most hated man in Dem politics for having gutted progressive infrastructure and independent groups who could have helped in spite of an anodyne campaign.

Has anyone heard what is happening with the Enquirer foray to Alaska

The polls for the MSM and polls for MSA (MSAmerica) will never match.

MSA wins every time.

And Palin is — say what! — Main Stream America.

Obama says that he doesn’t want 527s running negative ads on his behalf.

That’s what they’re there for for Christ sake. You’re right.

Look, i can see him giving taht a try. Maybe people will respond to that. Give him credit. Maybe it would hurt the other guy who doesn’t do it because people are so tired of that shit. OK, try it. But it didn’t work that way, so get off it already. People say they hate negative but they respond to it. He’s pissing away money.

Slightly OT, KO had a great quote of Truman’s last night that I saw briefly earlier today: How many times do you have to be hit over the head to figure out who’s hitting you?

Can’t just talk about the what and how, gotta talk about the who.

Of course, the McCainstream Media, having totally forgotten or never learned the 5 Ws of journalism, only want to talk about the who.

Why?

“anodyne” shall be my word for today. that means I have to use it 3 times before the day is over.

Diebold!

How many times do you have to be hit over the head to figure out who’s hitting you?

Maybe that’s why the Ds are so stoopid. Been hit on the head so often.

anodyne campaign.

What does that mean?

Public opinion is always contradictory. As a result, people interpreting polls try to find consistency where none really exists, calibrating messaging recommendations so as to find some marginal, targeted, incremental advantage. This not only leads to the most conservative possible set of recommendations, it proceeds from a flawed presumption that the realm of the possible in public opinion is represented by the data already collected

There is a book called “Black Swans ” I’m reading now which points out that it is a normal human tendency to find answers, patterns etc where none really exist.
You are right that this bias does seem to lead to the most conservative set of recommendations.
How can we give new ideas equal consideration both personally and politically?
I like new ideas but I admit only in subjects I think I already understand otherwise I do tend to the conservative.

It was my perception that Obama had backed away from asking 527’s not to be involved (opened the door)

1,759 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…

Citizen Pachacutec and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:

Good post, the limitations to the use of pollin’ data are serious and especially targeting message to subgroups based on large group data. Especially important, of course, is to understand that the pollin’ numbers themselves become the message. But I am convinced that “message” based on large group pollin’ indicators can and does work to swing large numbers of voters. For instance, if Obama declared that his administration will invesitgate and prosecute when the evidence warrents, all Bush administration stooges from Bush and Cheney through to the White House chef, I am convinced his poll numbers would indicate a landslide. If Obama declared that not only will he increase taxes on those over $200,000 per year but will reduce the FICA tax by one percent and remove the cap ENTIRELY, his poll numbers would make ‘im unbeatable even with a stick.

The way that Obama gets this campaign onto the issues is to start by callin’ the opposition “liars” and then advancing audacious promises that play to and advance the anger in the general population…these promises must be doable, of course, and even if they generate heavy pushback, that pushback will create debate on issues on which majorities in the pollin’ data hold clear positions.

Great post…Obama jest needs to crank up what he’s already doin’ without equivocating.

KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE WAR IS IN OUR LIVINGROOMS!!

Yeah, the conventional wisdom being that the rhetoric which won the primaries for you won’t appeal to the general public. Unfortunately that will remain the CW until somebody has the guts to try it the other way.

That was a partial walkback more symbolic than substantive.

Besides, it occurred late enough in the cycle that the money has really been soaked up. It takes operation time to fire up those campaign engines, and he gutted them during the critical period.

Another way to look at it. Why should the D leaders care if they get the prez? They’ll still get almost as much booty from the national security state. It is in interest of both parties to be exactly alike to split the goodies.

The biggest set of validators are the media types (Marc Ambinder, come on down!) , which is why the GOP works them so hard, and so successfully, while establishment Dems simply cede that territory .

I think this is true and it drives me CRAZY – I simply can’t believe there aren’t any Dem political operatives who are both smart AND have an instinct to go for the jugular, who could effectively “work the refs.” Sadly, they don’t even seem interested or seem to think its necessary.

Palin as Queen of Hearts, a capricious, vindictive xxxxx. Whoelse has she fired and/or tried to fire:
– Chief of Police in Wasallia
– Head librian in Wassalia
– ex-brother-in-law
– Head of Alaska’s state troopers
– Campaign aid John Bitney: “[Sarah and Todd Palin] were upset with me about my divorce and who I was dating… .”

How do you feel about an end-of-days nutcase with that kind of petulance one hearbeat from the doomsday button?

~~~ModNote: Edited for content.~~~

Video no longer available.

Yes, I was yelling at the tv also, just say the word, LIE LIE LIE LIE!

That’s true. He did okay them.

a very important piece you wrote pachacutec, I have one issue, it seems you have fallen prey to the very thing you critisize;

willingness to extend Bush’s billionaire tax cuts

they were NOT tax cuts, they were redistribution of middle class wealth and assets

McShame wants to lower spending but increase to DOD and cut taxes. Obama wants to lower taxes for those under 200K but spending would vary. The “spoils” would vary.

I agree with your description but not with your proscription. My emphasis would be on how those characteristics of Palin makes her a formidable opponent.

anodyne: capable of alleviating pain. I confused it with a metallergic term that made absolutely no sense.

# Message recommendations tend to perpetuate bland committee-speak among candidates and organizations that adopt the recommendations, leaving the public to trust the messengers less. Bleached out, passionless language makes people justifiably suspicious, so that even the outcomes well intended message construction seeks to achieve are ultimately undermined as wimpy bureauspeak.

Messages about ideas tend to be in bland speak, Obama tends to be great when he is passionate for an idea like green tech.
McCain is best when he lies about cutting taxes or the Surge. GOPers are also good at racism.
Still emotional appeals are possible on ideas if the candidate cares even as McCain has shown even if the ideas are a lie.

My 51 for you

Let Sarah off the hook for not knowing shit about the Federalization of Freddie and Fannie’s losses and the Privitization of its profits. She can’t be expected to know the big stuff. She’s from a small town!

Ask Sarah what she knows about the history of the Federal Reserve Banking System and who it is really owned by:

An Expose of The Federal Reserve Banking System

That ought to make for some good theater.

Republics always promise to lower spending when they campaign. It never actually happens because Republics govern differently.

Good point any tax cut that results in more debt is not a tax cut because that money needs to be paid back someday with interest.
This is the one point Milton Friedman makes about economics that I agree with not that I am an expert or anything.
But this is also the one point the GOP never mentions.

she is formidable cause she is ALL hat and no cattle………..shiny penny filled with lead

THE MEDIA is THE MASSAGE

A pain reducer like analgesic as aspirin. I would say soft soaping issues or candy coating. Describung a lie as an untruth. Not so mean spirited.

I think there would not be much diff in the military policies of Obama vs. McCain. Both would keep troops in Iraq because pulling them out would result in the possibility of a crashing country and a one-term prez. Both would send more troops to Afghanistan instead of trying to see it as a political issue. Both are bellicose on Georgia. There’s not enuf $$ in the budget for Obama’s or McCain’s tax cuts. And now that the Ds have scratched their way back up to the congressional majority, they get at least their share of lobbyest dough. In other words, the only diff is SCOTUS, and bygones-be-bygones Sunstein makes that diff look small.

My emphasis would be on how those characteristics of Palin makes her a formidable opponent.

Of that, there can be no doubt. With a single major campaign appearance, she already has a higher favorability rating than both Obama and McCain.

But I believe that her Queen-of-Hearts record of vindictive capriciousness combined with her end-of-days fundamentalism should (and would if properly exploited) scare the shit out of everyone.

I think Obama would raise more $ for decent purposes and slightly more reasonable medical

Christy upstairs!
Has Sarah Palin Been Bilking Alaska’s Taxpayers? Did She Violate AK Regs To Do So?

foothillsmike @ 64
Emphasis on slight.

No lets wait for Sarah to say something about cutting taxes and being against earmarks then we point out that her home town gets more tax money than anybody else in Alaska.
Then once we have established a link between her town and how they need taxes especially after the debt Sarah left them.
Then we bring up Fannie and Freddie, the Car companies, the Airlines who will probably want cash next and then we point out that her town will likely lose out on the tax money when the big corporations start moving in on her pork scams.
Then we point out that it was under a Republican President that Freddie, Fannie, the car companies, the airlines etc got in trouble.
And that America can’t afford four more years!

Obama is bringing a knife to a gun fight or mild manners to a down and dirty process.
He has a political dissability that HRC recognized, he is a nice guy. He better put up his dukes or we will have to do it for him.
Americans by enlarge are rough and tumble competitors. Never give a sucker an even break…look at all the con jobs that were imposed by the sub prime lendrs as they “loaned to own” which is a common practice n the hard money lenders business that our banks and mortgagr houses have become..

Per Ed Koch:

If the vice president were ever called on to lead the country, there is no question in my mind that the experience and demonstrated judgment of Joe Biden is superior to that of Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin is a plucky, exciting candidate, but when her record is examined, she fails miserably with respect to her views on the domestic issues that are so important to the people of the U.S., and to me. Frankly, it would scare me if she were to succeed John McCain in the presidency.

Damn right!! I don’t want an end-of-days fundamentalist with their finger next to a dooms-day button, especially not one with a long record of capricious vindictiveness. And I’ll contribute to any 527 that wants to carry that message forward.

It sacares the mainstream religious establishment the traditional protestants and catholics the fundies not so much. This needs to be played ad naseum.

Per this Dkos diary:

When John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate, the campaign immediately began touting her experience–both foreign and domestic–as “commander-in-chief” of the Alaska National Guard. But the reality of the situation–that Palin actually had little to do with the National Guard quickly became apparent. In fact, the idea was undercut severely by comments made by the actual commander of the Alaska National Guard–its Adjutant General, Major General Craig Campbell. When that happened, it eventually turned into somewhat of a national joke, culminating in the humiliation of McCain/Palin campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds on CNN when he tried to promote Palin’s “foreign policy” experience during the Republican National Convention.

It was getting bad for the McCain campaign because they couldn’t afford to lose the “experience” argument to the Obama campaign.

But suddenly–and strangely–the commander of the Alaska National Guard, Major General Campbell, changed his story. By the end of the convention, he was praising Palin’s experience, talking on TV about how she had taken control of Alaska’s National Guard operations and how she was a “great” leader.

Interestingly enough, Palin promoted him with his third star–to the rank of Lieutenant General–only three days later.

I doubt that Palin doubts that there’s anything wrong with what she and the General did.

I doubt that Palin doubts that there’s anything wrong with what she and the General did.

Oops! Double negation there. Should be: “I doubt that Palin realizes that there’s anything wrong with what she and the General did.”

I’m not at all saying polling should not be done, but I am saying that recommendations for political messaging based only on polling systemically lead to timid, conservative political messaging.

Bingo!

The Democratic version of this electioneering-by-polling has Rahm Emanuel written all over it. Burnt toast steeped in room-temperature milk. Mmmm, good. The only thing it will succeed in accomplishing is convincing Americans desperate for change that the Democrats are as self-serving and probably as incompetent, as the Republicans. It will drive down turnout, aided and abetted by national voter suppression tactics Bush’s DOJ and his RNC operatives have been working on feverishly since at least 2006.

Obama has shown he can be better than this. He has the confidence, the common sense, the sense of civic mission to rise above conservative pollsters and don’t-rock-my-boat incumbent Dems who think they’ll win because it’s their turn — a self-deception that has Rove and McCain’s lobbyist-run campaign laughing in the aisles of their private jets and guffawing in their leather-bound limos.

Americans are desperate for a return to rational government, for a return to fixing obvious problems. They want thrown aside the marketing-speak that calls problems, fear and chaos “challenges” and “opportunities”, which they know are disguises for ignoring them unless they affect the Beltway. Americans are tired, worn, hungry, yearning for a leader whom they would follow over the top, not one that pushes them into the abyss. Not someone who promises all and fixes nothing, someone who tries bloody hard to fix the right things, and who tells you what he’s doing.

Obama. Run.Your.Own.Campaign. Shout, fight, tell it like it is. Tell us what you’re trying to fix, what it’ll cost and who’ll pay for it. Tell us that you’re willing to rock the boat to keep it afloat and steer it toward home. Don’t give us music to sink by; Bush has played that for eight years. McCain will keep playing it for eight more, by which time we’ll be food for sharks and America, the biggest fish in the sea, will be a sail and tail tied to a skiff on an empty beach.

Exhibit A: Obama on Olbermann last night. He couldn’t give one straight answer.

Boy is THAT the truth!!! I was screaming at the tv. [Where is that basket of koosh balls I’m always advising everyone to have at hand?]

My husband reminded me of a Mark Twain quote Obama ought to take to heart:

“If a person offends you and you are in doubt as to whether it was intentional or not, do not resort to extreme measures. Simply watch your chance and hit him with a brick.”

You can call it a duck without getting into the pond and quacking with it.

I think Obama’s afraid of getting duck poop on his shoes.

Damn it, man, show some!!!