canadian-flag.thumbnail.jpgEveryone in Canada knew it was coming, and today it happened. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared an election (unlike in the US, in Canada the PM can choose when the election happens, up to 5 years after elected.) Harper could continue for a year longer if he chose, but the Canadian economy is taking on water fast, so that would be a bad bet, since incumbents take the blame for a bad economy. Current polls mostly show that the likely outcome of the election is another Conservative minority government, in which Harper would not have control of Parliament and thus not be able to move bills without the cooperation of the opposition.

Harper opened his campaign with a cry for voters in the province of Quebec to ignore the separatist Bloc Quebecois, because they can’t form a government and he can. More pragmatically, a breakthrough in Quebec is Harper’s only realistic shot at getting a full majority. Harper is a hardcore devolutionist—he believes the federal government in Canada is too powerful and involved in areas it doesn’t have the "constitutional" right to be in. (I put that in scare quotes because I think his argument is dubious, and essentially a US talking point repatriated to Canada to allow him what he wants to do anyway.) Since Quebec is always asking for more powers, Harper has a fair bit of appeal there. Sure, Quebec won’t get unique powers that the rest of the provinces don’t, but it’ll still get more power.

Unfortunately for Harper, there are some dead bodies standing between him and the Quebec love and votes he wants—dead Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan. Quebec is deeply anti-war, as it has been since Confederation, the majority of Quebecois having been against both World Wars, the Korean war and so on. Quebecois see no reason for Canadian troops to be fighting and dying in Afghanistan, and Harper has made Afghanistan his signature foreign policy issue.

The other parties are all in various forms of disarray. The Liberals, who stand an outside chance of actually beating the Conservatives, have lost a lot of strength in Quebec and have a relatively unpopular leader in Dion. Their green economics plan is popular in some areas of the country but scares resource areas. The NDP are caught between the Liberals on their right flank, and the rising Green party on their, well not exactly left flank, but rear, I suppose. Because Harper is so hated by the left (he’s a neocon in Canadian drag) the NDP stands to lose a good 5% of the population, people who prefer it, who will vote Liberal in fear of a Conservative majority (a reasonable fear, in my mind, but most people will throw their votes away, as in most ridings switching your vote to the Liberals doesn’t help).


The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, will come out of this election weaker than it went in. They are almost certainly the hinge party, and in an odd twist of fate, strong federalists like myself, who don’t want to see Harper weaken the federal government, will be cheering the Quebec independence party on. As for the Greens, they need their breakout election, and it’s unclear who they’ll hurt most other than the NDP. There is some reason to believe that their odd version of libertarianism and green policies could actually give disgruntled conservatives (of whom there are quite a few), a place to go.

The stakes in this election are quite high. The "Conservatives" aren’t, they’re a reactionary party which has attempted to apply a version of US Republican philosophy to Canada. They have taken Canada from having a 12 billion dollar surplus, to the edge of deficit, just as the country goes into a recession. Their first reaction to everything, as with Republicans in the US, is "tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts". The conservative party in the election is actually the Liberals (though by US standards they’d be flaming lefties), who managed the country’s finances into multiple consecutive surpluses and paid down the debts. More dangerously than his bungled budgets however, Stephen Harper wants to make significant changes to the Canadian constitution, such as having an elected Senate, which will weaken Canada as a nation and introduce US style gridlock and corruption.

So, personally, all I really care about in this election is that Harper doesn’t get a majority. A minority I can live with but a majority will change what type of country Canada is, into something much more like the United States. As someone whose job it is to watch the US economy and US politics, forgive me dear readers, but that’s an idea which fills me with horror.

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  3. Election 2009: Election Night Thread #1; Polls Now Closed in VA
  4. Election 2009: What Happened in Virginia?
  5. Teabag Express Drops into Nevada