Carl Bernstein said something extremely astute on CNN: if something were to happen to John McCain before the election, would Sarah Palin be the GOP Presidential nominee? Not likely. And that says an awful lot, now doesn’t it?

She’s good—she comes off as folksy, if a bit too sharp and zealous at times. (Tom Shales agrees.) People in WV are going to eat her up, though, as are some women who will like that she stood up after being knocked down for a week in the press, despite her savoring the more malicious lines a bit too much to keep the "victim" ruse going.

McCain’s judgment has been damaged. He’s pissed off the media, bullying them for finally doing their jobs instead of fetching his donuts, while he didn’t bother to do his own vetting job properly. Hypocrisy doesn’t wear well on McCain.

But Palin stood on both feet after a shitty week and came across as sassy. She came in with incredibly low expectations and, unlike Dan Quayle, she exceeded them by quite a bit. Don’t underestimate her.

That cheery hockey mom demeanor with the feisty, sharp stick the shiv in while looking like you are offering a second helping of meringue pie to the neighbors technique is the same kneecap with a smile demeanor that used to win jury trials for me. She’s a pro and she worked that crowd like one, especially playing to the cameras—her sportscaster experience was clearly a plus there.

Especially since most folks don’t bother listening to the text of the speech or fact checking it. They often decide based on how they feel within the first couple of minutes, and during that time they had her talking lovingly about her family, her faith and her hometown values. Which pretty much most of America can nod right along to, at least where I live. But will it wear as sincere or nasty, contrived artifice over the next few weeks?

It was well-planned by one of George Bush’s speechwriters (Matt Scully) who, according to uber-lobbyist and McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, originally wrote it for a male Veep; he softened it after the hasty Palin pick, although not much. Note there was no mention of reproductive choice — they clearly saw the Emily’s List numbers, too. (Although Obama managed to land a pretty good pre-emptive strike on that issue earlier.)

The supermarket tabloids are full of magazines touting her scandal issues this week. But it’s going to turn to sympathy covers by next week, unless there are more shoes yet to drop and she lands in overexposure central. But the lack of initially vetting her? Impulsive jumps from the gut? That lands on McCain.

Palin’s bit on lobbyists running from McCain is a good place to start the fact checking, considering how many ride around on his damn bus with him every day.

And Democrats? We need to be saying the words "same as George Bush and Dick Cheney" every chance we get, because they are running away from them like the plague. I think Jay Rosen is correct that the Palin pick was the opening salvo in a renewed GOP culture war. Odd that McCain is still desperately trying to shore up the GOP base.

The question is whether people in America will fall for the same tired routine — or whether they are fed up with crap that doesn’t help them fill their gas tanks or feed their kids before they run between jobs.

We can’t afford four more years of Republicans driving us into the ditch because they were too busy to watch the road while they were lining their pockets and throwing the constitution out the window. Joe Klein asks whether Americans will see this as a big election on tough issues facing their families, or a small election based on divisive quibbling. I think reactions to Palin’s speech are a bit of a Rohrschach on that. Thoughts?