EMILY’s List, which has been doing substantial polling of women and their thoughts on the presidential race, reports that the Sarah Palin pick has hurt John McCain’s electability among women pretty much across the board. Some excerpts from their latest report (PDF):
– First, this selection puts John McCain squarely in the realm of politics over principle in women voters’ eyes. Obama’s choice of Joe Biden is thought to be a selection based on qualifications over political expediency by a 50% to 29% margin. McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin is considered one of political calculation over qualifications by a 59% to 20% margin.
– Second, Sarah Palin’s background and personal narrative are not particularly appealing to women voters, and she matches up poorly against Joe Biden in terms of the potential to establish a compelling narrative. When GarrinHartYang asked women about Sarah Palin only 41% total said that she either "appeals a lot" or "appeals a fair amount." When asked about Joe Biden, 61% total viewed him as either appealing a lot or a fair amount.
– Third, Governor Palin’s inclusion on the ticket squanders John McCain’s previous advantage over Barack Obama with regard to experience and readiness to lead. Not only do women find Sarah Palin’s qualifications lacking, but having her on the ticket undercuts the one advantage McCain previously held over Obama in the last Emily’s List polling.
– Fourth, several of Governor Palin’s positions on issues, including her position on abortion, alienate large segments of the women’s electorate and add to the perception that the GOP ticket is out of step with women voters’ views and priorities.
– Fifth, even with the historic inclusion of a woman on the Republican ticket, women voters conclude that the Obama-Biden ticket is more in step with the issues and concerns that are important to women than is the McCain-Palin ticket. By 53% to 35%.
– The more that Hillary Clinton’s primary supporters learn about Sarah Palin, the less likely they are to support John McCain. In fact, a full 55% of Clinton voters said that Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain, and Obama moves to a 54- percentage-point lead (75% to 21%) over McCain among these Clinton voters with the addition of Palin.
I knew when folks like Maureen Dowd and Dr. Laura turned against Palin publicly that something ugly was brewing.
The McCain campaign, which must have been drinking heavily last night to pull this out of their increasingly rumpled hat, trotted Ann Coulter out to gripe about Palin’s husband not carrying enough Mr. Mom weight in order to elicit sympathy for their failing Veep pick. I’m sure he appreciated the tips. Tremendously. No idea why anyone thought Ann Coulter was the appropriate parenting skillz messenger, but you work with whomever wants their share of the limelight, I suppose.
Since half the GOP has run the hell away from the convention center, with scads of empty seats on the teevee coverage thus far, maybe she and her perpetual cocktail dress had a few spare moments to chitchat.
But to see hard numbers on how sour the female electorate has turned on Palin in less than a week is startling, given that the vast majority of women outside Alaska likely had very little clue who she even was. Looks like women don’t like manipulative tactics or imprudent rolls of the campaign dice. McCain just got served a serious "Dear John" letter.
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Michelle! Jill!
Shrub finally said something I agree with last night. He said the “angry left” wouldn’t like whatever he was talking about. He’s right. I don’t like anything he talks about.
One ship I was on had a box set up just for Dear John letters. On long deployments we’d break some of them out and read them aloud. Cruel bunch, those sailors.
Tonight’s RNC Warm Up Act…
With their debut release of the McCain/Palin campaign’s new theme song…
It’s Stealers Wheel…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMrm7ZQ0aMA
LOL – that is mean! Ouch!
McCain shored up support with the fundies, at best, fewer of them will stay home on election day. Net gain among swing voters, zero.
McCain appears to have spent his entire life making decisions based on gut-instinct. Problem is, his instincts are terrible. They made him a poor student, a terrible pilot, bad husband and father, mediocre (to put it kindly) senator. The fact that he now leads the Republican Party is more symbolic of their failure than his success.
I wonder how Alaskan voters feel about re-electing her Governor? Forget the VP race….can she even maintain her home base polls? I’d love to see some polling data on that question.
McCain needs a bigger shovel to dig the hole he’s in faster.
It has been a long 8 year “deployment”!
what an uplifting post. Thanks, Christy!
Get used to reading theses three words in this order:
“Obama’s “Palin Bounce”
Son of a bitch broke the one I loaned him.
btw, for anyone who was watching the RNC last night — did you think Fred Thompson looked like he’d been dipped in a vat of bronzer? Or was it just our HDTV heightening the spray tan? Because it looked awful…
It is encouraging to read that this choice is not “brilliant” as I have seen some people call it. Her lack of experience and the verbal gymnastics the GOP are engaging in to make her personal life look “good” where it conflicts with their line of “values” is astonishing. It is the most stupidly manipulative ploy I have ever seen.
Ahhh. love the data in this post. thank you, chs.
I think that’s a pretty good summation of the ditch in which the GOP finds itself at this point. (Nope, no schadenfreude here. Never, ever take a ditch for granted — too much time until November. But it is intriguing nonetheless, isn’t it?)
Sarah:
Tell us all about the one where you got yourself knocked-up by your boyfriend, out of wedlock, then eloped and had the baby eight months later.
Tell us about how you taught your daughter to abstain from having sex until marriage, to avoid making the same mistake that you did. Tell us how that worked out.
Then tell us how you want to impose your values and practices on every woman in the United States.
Sarah?
Where are you going?
McCain picked Pain for one reason; to throw a bone to the fundies. However, even the nuttiest fringe of the fundies is not going to like Bristol’s pregnancy, the redneck foulmouthed boyfriend, a mother with a special needs new born running off on the campaign trail, and her fringe party affiliation in Alaska.
No idea why anyone thought Ann Coulter was the appropriate parenting skillz messenger,…
Maybe they messed up when looking in the GOP directory, and accidentally dialed the “Clubbing Baby Seals, and Insults for All Occasions” messenger….
Yeah, but I don’t think they are really stuck in the middle.
You gotta be shittin’ me. Ms It’s Always All About Me herself.
I hadn’t thought of the bronzer angle, but, respectfully, heavy drink came to mind.
Even Fred Thompson knows his party is swirling the bowl, and the lifelines are getting frayed.
That’s nothing. Michael Phelps drank too much last week and had his gold medals bronzed.
ba-dum-dum
i don’t think her numbers among women are going to improve much once the tabloids all start hitting the stands with a large picture of her on the front with some variation of the headline, “secrets, lies, scandal!” mcsame can bitch about the “elite media” all he wants, but the enquirer and us know their audience, and if they are piling on palin then she’s toast.
I wonder how Alaskan voters feel about re-electing her Governor?
ET has been saying that it’s likely that Alaskans will react badly to attacks against their popular governor, and take it as an insult to the entire state.
But I find myself wondering, as more and more information about Mrs. Palin comes out, whether they might come to a realization that they never really knew her at all….
McCain picked Palin because he saw the hottness of them together: Flyboy McCain and Beauty Queen Sarah. Think back to high school. They are the homecoming and prom king and queen! Imagine Sarah sitting across from Putin. He’ll just melt, right?
Republics must be so proud!
Aren’t all women secretly raising their daughters to reproduce at 17 so that they can be young grandmothers?
Where did you find that Dr. Laura post?
“Dr.” Laura writes:“I’m stunned – couldn’t the Republican Party find one competent female with adult children to run for Vice President with McCain? “
No – this was another edition of simple answers to stupid questions……../s
Right, I’ve been down this path too many times to take a likely Republican defeat for granted. They might be horrible at governing but they are consummate professionals when it comes to winning undeserved elections.
I don’t suppose many of you recall the version in Reservoir Dogs
warning, not for the squeamish
At least Sarah can be thanked for one thing. Without her, who outside of Alaska would have heard of the Alaskan Independence Party? It’s never even been mentioned on the “Deadliest Catch”.
Creepily, Dr. Laura writes a blog extolling virtue as she knows it.
ratfood,
Right, I’ve been down this path too many times to take a likely Republican defeat for granted. They might be horrible at governing but they are consummate professionals when it comes to
winningstealing undeserved elections.There, fixed it .
I just heard Rev Wright (not Jeremiah) of the St Pete Refuge homeless program speaking in St Paul on Democracy Now! Go Refuge, St Pete For Peace and Food Not Bombs.
HooYahhh
OT – link just came via listserve. video of jason who was tasered at least twice last night at the beginning of the poor people’s march (while on the ground and not resisting) and then was denied medical treatment. also via listserv, here is the latest word on jason from starhawk (and thanks to all who called last night demanding medical treatment for all detainees):
Tucker Carlson, of all people, made a good point this morning. (ya gotta trust me a little to keep on reading).
He said that he assumed that Mrs. Palin’s speech should go very well, tonight, “because, really, how hard is it to read a teleprompter?”
My personal guilty pleasure. Nice one.
Next time you’re going to positively (sort of) link to a Dr. Laura post (which, now that I think about it, may never happen again), please provide some warning as to what’s in it. That was the worst, most horrifying drivel I’ve read in a long time. She is an embarrassment to women everywhere.
Just like Sarah Palin, actually.
Well, I did follow the link with the phrase “something ugly was brewing.” Thought that was a pretty big hint on the ick factor there…
Gillette spokesperson Michael Madsen… no longer searching for a close shave.
Did you know Madsen originated in Chicago?
We won’t talk about the spread she did for Hustler or some such years ago.
women arent teh stupid.
and neither are feminist-inpspired men.
I can see a good reason to extoll and sing the virtues of the woman/child and celebrate her “choice.” But there were some other choices here that also warrant discussion by the Goopers, or they are not dealing with reality. it is like talking about war without talking about death. it is celebrating warriors without providing care for the wounded.
if they are going to put her front and center, they need to deal with these realities:
teen sex,
and
unprotected sex.
You cant ignore the elephant in the room, and it is wholly irresponsible to celebrate the pregnancy and the shotgun wedding, without discussing the serious issues presented by accidental pregnancy and unprotected teen sex.
This piano is seriously out of tune.
Apparently, it’s a bit tough, judging by the choppy read Laura Bush gave last night.
By hook or by crook… it all the same to them.
Ew. Mental bleach warning next time…
Hi Christy Great Post!!! McCain is just pandering and it is so blatant that most women see right through the ploy. He must still think women are best kept in the Kitchen. you barefoot and well you know the expression… dumb ass that he is. His sexist half is showing with this selection..The American Women are much smarter than he is!!
Oh and Pups I opened the Digg for ya all so go ahead and Digg this fine POST!
but we can make those arguments without making it about a specific minor who deserves to have some privacy.
digg it open & ready for ya to spread Christy’s fine post far & wide.
Gooper flack on CNN, sitting next to Hilary Rosen:
Palin has managed a family, a family budget, so she knows how to…”
So, since past Presidents didn’t know the price of a gallon of milk, that has become the exclusive measure of ‘qualified?.’
I feel so much better.
Pickles may have been a bit pickled.
Thanks, nahant!
I wonder if reading off a teleprompter is more difficult in large venues, perhaps due to the greater depth of field?
Exactly, so — totally with you there. It’s bad enough to have to deal with everything when you are a teenager anyway, let alone have to do so in this much of a crazy glare that she didn’t ask for…
“not appealing” does not even begin to describe my thinking on palin for vp. yuck.
but the problem i have is that obama, in choosing biden, has chosen the one D senator, even more the lieberman before we kicked his ass out of the party, who is responsible for the propaganda that convinced the american public (and even people in congress) into thinking that invading iraq might be a good idea. no way can i support such a warmonger. before choosing biden, obama had in my mind shown the good judgement to be against the iraq war. now he has specifically rejected that narrative and i have to think that it was all pandering to begin with. very disappointing. :(
Ok your implying that McCain did not even poll test Sarah?
When has the Republican Party ever done anything without it being poll tested first?
I am not doubting you but the ultra obsessed with polls GOP not poll testing a VP pick which is something that I think should be poll tested as well as vetted but that didn’t happen either.
Strikes me as weird just how impulsive/ADD is McCain is he getting worse from the constant stress of campaigning and losing?
laughing and crying at the same time.
But this has got to be good for the GOP, right? Right?
Had to be, that little dance was the deal on the west side in the early 60’s. 3/4 length cabretta leather coats, cozy pants(rolled up gas station drawers), thin nylon socks, pointed shoes and DA’s. “What color are his eyes? I don’t know, he’s always wearin shades”.
Funny how that stuff creeps up. My son was just watching that.
Or, creepy how that fun stuff…
So McCain can’t even get all the 30%ers on board with his VP pick and Sarah is suppose to help win over the 30%ers?
Ann Coulter for Vice!!!!!!!! Go Ann
only if you are a pundit who is being paid millions of dollars to spout such nonsense. *g*
Tin Roth in the bus station with the suitcases full of herb and the police dogs is awesome, “stuck in the middle” I only needed to see once.
Seems like only yesterday Ann Coulter was bemoaning women’s right to vote.
-G
But, Christy, wasn’t she perky?
I kept thinking, This is what it comes down to? Laura?
And, I heard something kinda stupid on MSNBC this am, I know – gasp! – all she has to do is Open Her Mouth. The delegates already Love Her.
(I’m just paraphrasing, and am not going there…
They know exactly what they are doing. It’s a set up and they are playing the “public” again. How dare these uppity, elitist, intellectuals hassle a regular christian mom.
I can imagine the convention floor tonight. Thousands of delegates wearing moosehead hats, and t-shirts that say, “We Are ALL Alaskans Now”.
I will watch for clues more closely next time. And, UGLY is right. Yikes.
Hey Rave.
Since you teach adult education, can you add a class for Female Adults who think balancing the tough job of raising children, doing PTA and managing to stay pregnant (you Know what I mean – keeping your husband smiling) constitute viable experience for the #2 job in the nation. They need some learnin’.
Take this back to McCain’s home state….. in 2006 Governor Janet Napolitano (D) received 66% of the vote. Our voter registration is pretty much 1/3 Democratic, 1/3 Republican, 1/3 Independent. What was her draw? Pro-Choice Republican women vote for her overwhelmingly.
Arizona needs to be blasted with ads about the McCain/Palin stand on women’s issues including reproductive rights, equal pay and support for working women. As we have a high number of head of households that are women.
But at least Biden regrets his war vote and has voiced so. I don’t have an issue with those that voted for the war based on their beliefs that it was true and accurate info (even though I am anti-war) my issue was upon finding that the info was false (and the war) would they apologize or even regret their vote. If so what are they doing to try to end the war/bring troops home.
Forgot my manners….
bom dia pups
Well, I have to say, living in WV as I do, poking fun at Alaska isn’t the way to go with this. It would get the dander up in folks here if WV were the subject matter, and I’d imagine the same reaction from there as well.
But McCain’s judgment and failure to properly vet like any sensible human being would in terms of looking at all the details thoroughly? THAT’s what the GOP is asking us to elect with his finger on the nuclear button? No thank you.
I agree. This pick is all about McCain’s judgement or lack thereof. I could really care less about the family situation except that it throws the whole abstinence only sex ed thing into debate (a debate I totally welcome)
What would we call that class, Agape?
It might be useful for someone to ask Palin her opinion on the age for consensual sex…. had her daughter and putative son-in-law performed in North Dakota, Oregon, California, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida or even McCain’s own Arizona, Levi might be in jail for statutory rape. I wonder how many are, for instance, in Arizona.
I do love how the republicans are pushing back against valid criticism of Ms. Palin by accusing folks of sexism.
Blue Texan up
i can’t even imagine any woman who’d want to vote for a man who calls is wife a c*nt. then, of course, there’s the fact that he’s a menace to society at large.
No idea why anyone thought Ann Coulter was the appropriate parenting skillz messenger,…
When you’ve put up an example of parenting such as Palin, it doesn’t matter who the messenger is, the message is still f’ed up.
Quite the sideshow to watch and hear the shillers calling Palin a “brilliant and bold” pick. All the while the narrative is settling into “GOP in disarray” mode with nobody attending/watching the Convention and daily sordid revelations about Palin’s past.
The GOP desperately wants to turn the spotlight back to FORMER POW AND WAR HERO JOHN MCCAIN. But tonight is Sarah’s night and so she’ll own the next 24 hour news cycle. By the time we get to McCain tomorrow night, however, questions about his judgement will be popping up all over TeeVee screens across America.
Not exactly the spotlight they wanted.
chs, I definitely agree. I was trying to poke fun at McCain’s ‘We’re all Georgians now” smarm. The Repubs are already well into the false outrage at the media treatment of Palin.
Motherly love
Motherly love
Forget about
The brotherly and other-ly love
Motherly love
Is just the thing for you
You know your Mothers’ gonna love ya
Till ya don’t know what to do
Whoa-oh
f zappa
Blue Texan upstairs on Sarah Palin, Tom Delay Republican
Its about WHO is running John McCain’s campaign….. WHO is?
Does John McCain speak for his campaign?
Does John McCain actually make any decisions on his own?
Does John McCain own his own soul now?
Oh but McCain has vetted her. He looks at her and his blood pressure goes down.
I usually follow politics almost compulsively … like I used to with sports. However, with Palin’s entry onto the national stage, I am completely “creeped out”.
Guess when I was in NYC, it was easier to ignore that people like her exist (except for Elizabeth Hasselbeck on “The View” *g*). In NC, Ms. Palin’s kind is plentiful. I like a commenter’s remark from earlier today “She’s a Tonya Harding with five kids.” You know, the uber religious women who would kneecap in the name of Jesus.
The mere suggestion she might actually become VP is terrifying to me.
Funny to hear about the pro-family virtue in having the little one from the party that makes their rent off of blasting unwed mothers. Course, the ones they deplore are slightly darker.
It’s like the political equivalent of the old ‘measure twice, cut once’ adage. Choosing a qualified nominee would have required expending a fraction of the energy they are now using to rationalize their poor selection.
That still speaks to his judgment. HE had to decide to run his campaign in this manner, the company he has chosen to keep, the long standing policies he has abandoned etc.etc
I do so love the smell of “landslide” in the morning!
I know, I know… it’s not over yet, don’t count your chickens… yada, yada.
I doubt someone from the Obama campaign is gonna read this comment and say “We can all stop working so hard now, STTP in Ohio has decreed the election is gonna be a landslide, so let’s get some beach time in until November.”
It’s just a feeling. They (McCain’s crew) have inherited the Dubya gift of everything they touch turning into poop.
Just look at their convention; a bunch of pasty dead-enders going through the motions.
Gov. Palin’s gonna prove to be a disaster because of what it says about his decision making, not because of her.
Sorta like how choosing me would be a bad choice, and I think the world of me.
Meanwhile, over at Fox News: Report: Jamie Lynn Spears Sends Gift to Bristol Palin
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,415862,00.html
What was someone saying about John McCain’s blood pressure?
I just talked with a dear friend, while not politically active at all, has been tentatively pro-Obama. She told me that she sees the choice as Palin as VP to be a shrewd move that she thinks will really help McSame with the women voters.
I tried to discuss some of Palin’s “issues”, and I think I was persuasive, but she wants documentation — which I am only too happy to provide.
But it is indeed amazing to watch the spinning coming out of the party. They must be dizzy by now
WOW! Dr. “I Am My Kid’s Mom” Laura standing by her convictions. First one (besides David Frum) that I have heard lately.
The most interesting viewing on the cable news lately is just watching who can muster the absolute straightest face when reciting the talking points on Sarah Palin’s possitive attributes. I have expected to see someone crack at this point and, busting into uncontrolled laughter, simply cover up and demand, “I need just a minute before I can continue with this shit.”
But, the more I watch, the more it becomes apparent that their truly must be some kool-aid tanker somewhere that keeps these poor people numb in the head. The vacuous stares that the give the camera as they recite the litany of the day remind me of religious person, speaking catechism by rote.
:)
I was going to go crass and say gagape, but then thought better of it.
Get Real 101
What I say, Not what I do 101.
***
I just thought, do the GOP’s think this Palin woman is the GOP’s answer to Nancy Pelosi?
It must suck to be a poor lonely Repub.
but are you aware of the role he played as chair of the senate foreign relations committee to make sure that people who knew there were no wmd were not heard from but lying propagandists were? are you aware that biden was calling for war with iraq in the ’90s?
and are you aware that after saying he regretted his he once again repeated many of cheney’s lies about the war (in 2007)?
we’re not talking about someone who made a mistake here.
… epu’ed so you may never see this – but if you do and want links, i will happily provide them
My comment was eaten so here it is again:
Selise, I am aware of his role but I also think that people can change their positions/minds. No one is perfect (and certainly no politician)but do we forever relegate them to the abyss even if they have seen the light or come around a bit? I believe in better late than never.
lol, my comment was eaten too. i’ve got to learn to copy them to a text file until i’m sure they posted ok.
absolutely. i agree complete. i just don’t think biden is anything other than a “never” – the evidence doesn’t line up. :(
What concerns me is that if the fundies show up, several Senate seats that might have gone Dem may stay Repub. I’m thinking particularly of NC, MN.
My favorite is the “every family has a pregnant out-of-wedlock teenager, so Sarah’s just ‘one of us’.”
And you know what? It is things like this that the McStupid Campaign was not thinking about…..All they thought about was Celbrity and how to obtain media attention….It shows McStupids lack of concern for the Country……WHICH IF ANYONE IS PAYING ATTENTION…….IS THE SAME TYPE OF LEADER THAT WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST 8 YEARS….
SO, WITH THAT BEING SAID…..DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT JUST BECAUSE MCSTUPID WENT TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COUNTRY TO PICK SOMEONE WHO WAS NOT FROM WASHINGTON DOES NOT MEAN THAT YOU ARE A “REFORMER” WHICH IT ONLY PROVES HE IS JUST GEORGE BUSH DRESSED UP AS JOHN MCSTUPID!!!
90% OF THE TIME…THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERS!!
BUZZARDS KORNER
OBAMA/BIDEN08/12
SOUND JUDGEMENT!!