Gustav is running at 115 miles an hour and expected to hit the coast at around that speed. It looks like New Orleans may miss the worst of the hurricane. The current forecast is showing that Gustav will probably miss it, but there’s still a 43% chance of sideswiping it hard enough that levees might be over-topped or fail. Levies have still not been adequately rebuilt since Katrina. Even with New Orleans being missed, southern Louisiana can still expect to be devastated.
All oil production in the Gulf has been shut down. So far prices haven’t risen much, the key question is how much production will be damaged by the hurricane. If it can be brought back on line quickly there should be no significant price spike. If it can’t then the effect on gas prices could be significant.
McCain is using this as one big photo-op, rushing down to the area and doing his best to look Presidential, while Bush does his best to help him by fading into the background. This is a repeat of his Georgia strategy—he intends to spend a week acting as if he’s President and as if he’s doing something useful, when in fact, the best thing he could do is get out of the way, then use his influence to help with volunteers and money after the hurricane hits, which is what Obama will do. Gustav may well be the best thing that could happen to McCain, the RNC was likely to be a flop anyway and, with Gustav he has an excuse for it flopping and a chance to pretend he’s the President again.
If you want to help, let me suggest Incite, who are helping low income women evacuate and then to get back them back into the city as soon as possible afterwards so that what happened in Katrina, with extended absences forced by FEMA being used as a redevelopment opportunity doesn’t happen to these women (i.e., so they don’t lose their homes.)
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Aloha Ian!
Hi Ian!
thanks for the update ian
Also, a link to helping prisoners get evacuated.
Amen, Ian, why is it not being pointed out to the MSM…!
Gustav may well be the best thing that could happen to McCain,…
With the exception of his drill, drill, drill policy?
It’s OK, hurricanes don’t damage the oil infrastructure. I heard John Boehner say so.
-G
too bad pipelines aren’t considered to be infrastructure
Ian, thanks very much.
digg
TB, I was going to mention downstairs that you will be getting your former governor back real soon. Find a good place to stash him will you.
dugg and thanks boo
Hello! Nothing to give, everything to wish for — hey Firedogs!
on a plane to the Hague?
Yes he did.
Gas prices will not be adversely affected until after November 4th. The primary reason they have tapered off is b/c Big Oil wants to dupe voters into voting R.
Want to get your talking points together? Go to Levees.org
I spent the day wondering if my parents will be ok in Picayune. They lost their home in Katrina and relocated in Picayune. My brother and sister evacuated from NO and are with my parents. After talking with all of them over the last day I recognize Post Tramatic Stress in all of them but especially my elderly parents.
They are rolling the prices back like a mofo.
They do it every election.
The cynicsim of the corporate authoritarians is boundless, shameless, relentless.
-G
Hey, Ian. At least there is a little good news in that report. Hope all goes as well as can be for those on the coast.
TB, send him to wherever you think is best.
That works for me. 8-)
my best to your entire family
they don’t cause oil spills, either
so say the goopers
Damn, wish I’d known that.
My BIG wish is that KO televises all the oil spills from Gustav….. every one…. that this meme of no spilled oil from Katrina gets thrown in the trash…..
Just when my gas prices have dropped a dollar since I went to Europe….
Boner. hee, hee.
That wasn’t what they said when I was growing up in the Oklahoma oil fields.
Yea, and there were no oil spills during Katrina.
Habitual liars. Habitual fuckery. Problem is if you are never called on your lies you begin to believe them.
wow. this is rough. hope they’re ok. you have a big personal stake here. does it anger you to see republicans try to exploit it? or just par for the course? or are you focused on more important things than the republicans?
One thing I learned early growing up in an oil town (home then to the 9th largest oil company in the country), is that you never believe anything an oil company says.
many a month has come and gone
since I wandered from my home
in the oklahoma hills where i was born. . . . .
kinda like the pentagon ?
repeat comment:
Madmom, madkiddies, madpets, mad MIL, and mad siblings are all safe, 6 hrs north of New Orleans. MadGranny has a bed and breakfast up there. MadHubby is still in New Orleans, at a job that does not allow him to leave with the family.
The song actually refers to the exact area where I grew up on the border of the Cherokee Nation and “the Great Osage” (reservation). Town I grew up in is literally on the border. Home at the time to Phillips Petroleum Co. now merged with Conoco (then based in Ponca City, OK, 60 miles away) and moved to Houston.
Worse.
The republicans piss me off but my fellow countryman anger me even more since they don’t have the intelligence that God gave a land slug. Wake up fuckers. The assholes have been raiding the seed corn right in front of your eyes.
And pissing on what they don’t take.
mercy now upstairs
I’m vacillate between believing people have had enough and are shaking off the 9/11 coma or that they are ripe for another big time shnookering by Karl Rove Political Light and Magic Show.
-G
wow. i remember a few comments we had last week (i think) about the people in Okemah and how they think about woody. everything i know about OK i know from woody, i think,
From Prairie Sun Rising: What does it say about the state of our ability to take care of ourselves as a nation that a Canadian Forces C-17 has landed in New Orleans prepared to evacuate medically vulnerable persons?
is that the sate song, do ya know? thought i read that. just wondering because how you were saying woody wasn’t really appreciated much by some of the locals. would be good if it was.
pathetic. it was kind of a shock during katrina when countries were donating to us.
Here is my home town.
Nope. The state song is Rogers and Hammerstein’s “Oklahoma”. I absolutely loathe that song. It is, however, better than the Montana state song. Something about being professionally written, I think.
i hate that song and if i was actually from there I would loathe it too. Montana state song? in NJ, there was a bill to adopt Born to Run as the NJ state song. somebody finally figured out that it was all about getting away from that shithole.
Wasn’t there a crew of Mounties that were evacuating one of the parishes before US support ever got there too?
I seem to remember that quirky story.
-G
Hi Ian, just got here and everyone’s headed to late night.
Anyway, yes, it looks like oil prices may take a hit again. And they were just getting lower in time for the election. I think if McCain has any notions of increase his electability, preventing $5 a gallon gas would be a good start.
Hope things go OK there. The moving image of Gustav looks bad, like there’s a big bullseye on NOLA.
nice. kinda strange how they have a few taller buildings plopped down there, but nice. and you’re lucky to have that performing arts center. so that was fog? i thought a dust storm. remember, everything i know about OK, i know from woody’s songs.
Bear in mind that oil futures won’t be trading in New York until Tuesday due to the labor day holiday. London market willbe open tomorrow however as will electronic trading platforms. I think about a $4-$6 bump is probable, which means gasoline prices go up $0.10-$0.20 per gallon.
This isn’t the only hurricane this season, there’s a strong low pressure system about 650 miles west of Cape Verde that’s headed our way now. NWS gives it greater than a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm/hurricane.
So where did everyone go?
Thank you, Canada.
I’m just glad they’re helping. Some disasters are so big that no one nation can handle the emergency services aspects on its own. We’ve certainly degraded our ability in the last few years, but there are going to be times when we need help almost as much as Indonesia did a couple of years ago.
Yet another reason to treat other nations well the rest of the time, I suppose.
They’re listening to music upstairs.
My nephew’s Tex Nat Guard unit is busy with Port Arthur Texas and on standby for Galveston.
Higher ground, I imagine.
Looks like ours is headed back to Iraq. There’s a group of disaster emergency specialists up here who always seem to head to places like wherever this hurricane hits. I’m sure they’ll be mounting up soon, or whatever they call it.
Over on The Economic Populist, there is a really detailed post, The Loop and how if Gustav hits exactly at the wrong place it could shut down a huge percentage of US oil production as well as refineries.
You all probably know about The Oil Drum which is a blog devoted to energy markets.