So, Ian, what makes you think the war will be cold?

I’m an optimist. And if I get the cold part wrong, I probably’ll have bigger problems than admitting I was wrong. “mmmm, I glow”

they’re Stalin for time.

Nothing like more and ‘better’ wars to keep a nation’s populace ‘focused’ on something other than the economy, yet, unsurprisingly, the stench of very big money is in the air.

Shocking!

Buy Bombs! Invest in America’s Future.

What do you think, Ian?

Will the public ‘buy’ it?

If I’m not mistaken this is the same Russia that helped poison the Georgian candidate with dioxin then later supported the Georgia media mogul that ran non stop attack messages against the elected government of Georgia.

The Russians want the oil reserves and pipelines in Georgia. I’m sure the Russian would use any real or imagined provocation to start this little war.

Darned if I know. McCain’s numbers do seem to be moving somewhat. Jingo always seems to sell.

I think what would be useful is a discussion of what our interests are vis-a-vis Georgia, Ukraine, and the former Soviet republics in general. If say Ukraine and Georgia are strategically important to us, we should be doing more. If they are not and despite the rhetoric we have not been treating them as though they were (nor have the Europeans), then we should not be going all ballistic over this.

Naw! They’re Putin us on, punaise …

;~D

that one’s gonna leave Marx.

Kapital!

“are you willing to fight a war with the USSR, one with a real possibility of nuclear weapon usage, over the Ukraine? Yes, or no?”

Is McCain answering this question or are we? Cause I think we get different answers here. I mean if McGrampy thinks he can win the presidency by “getting tough”, this will be our September Surprise. On the other hand, does anyone listen to Krautie any longer about anything?

It could be a tough sell for anyone under say, 50 years old.

And the same US and Europe which pumped massive money into the Rose Revolution. The same US and Israel who armed and trained the Georgian military and whose advisers appear to have actually directed shelling of the South Ossetian capital.

No clean hands, but the bottom line is this. Georgia started this war. Where I come from you don’t start fights you can’t win.

Pipeline through Georgia is our only real strategic interest. Russians were careful to avoid it but a Georgian government under their thumb could certainly cause problems.

Ukraine? Pipeline, I guess, but Russia can cut that off at their own end. Other than giving strategic space, I see no real interests. Could be missing something, though.

Where I come from you don’t start fights you can’t win.

Did I read somewhere you’re not an American? I must have.

The Editors has a pretty good, if somewhat cold, post on this issue.

Personally, I don’t think either The Editors nor Mr Welsh give enough weight to the pipeline (and by association, petropolitics) issue, but maybe that’s me tinfoil hat talking.

Thanks very much for this imformative post, with very important points.
I think it is important not to become partisan to either Russia or Georgia until we know more of the facts. But so far, it looks like there are no good guys in this episode.

I am not sure my history is correct. But if I recall correctly I think the Russians did tell us after Kosovo that they were not happy. They also said that they would accept it but reserved the right to apply the same rules as we did in their own foreign affairs. I *think* they even offered examples of how their interpretation would apply to specific cases, which included the Caucasus.

In other words:
The Russians told us what they were going to do, and then they did it.
We were bluffing and had no acceptable response, so we did nothing.

I see it being that simple. Any fancy theorizing or worrying about strategy or geopolitics needs to take those simple facts into account, otherwise we may end up playing mere word games.

That does not mean that the Russians are trustworthy, or in any way ruled by a good or benevolent government, or that we should not worry quie a bit about the fate of their neighbors, and make wise and prudent plans for limiting the potential for Russian domination.

But, what it comes down to is that the US acted very stupidly.

Some may object that the analogy of Kosovo to Georgia is invalid. But that is beside the point. The Russians thought it was valid, and let us know. The Bush administration needed to take that into account, but apparently they didn’t, or they did but their strategy simply failed.

I think our foreign policy course, GOP and hawkish Democratic mainstream needs to change, or we will have more of the same with increasingly dangerous consequences.

If anyone thinks my history is wrong, please correct me. I admit I don’t have the sources at hand, and am more than willing to stand corrected if I am wrong.

Also, I think record shows McCain made false statements about the sequence of events, and said the UN should handle the matter a day after the UN had rejected Russia’s proposal. More evidence of his experience amd knowledge and 3-AM cred.

Also: if the seqence of events that Ian presents turns out to be accurate, and it also turns out that Georgia’s attack was not pre-emptive in the sense that it was definitely needed as a defensive measure, what does that say about the wisdom of admitting them to NATO? Are not both McCain and Obama being extremely irresponsible in continuing to advocate that until more is known?

I hate to show what a dunce I can be, but I’m looking for a bit of education here. What do you think the chances are that we will be baiting Iran much further or taking threatening steps toward them before the election? Wigwam put up some interesting recent links (7 of them) from outside the country yesterday that all referred to war games (that I think we knew about) and how there are many ships headed for the area of the Suez Canal, so that’s why I’m curious about how far you think Bush’ll go to antagonize Iran? Also, I noticed on the map Georgia’s close proximity to Iran, although the Caspian Sea is probably also a fine way to access Iran from Russia. Still, only Armenia and Azerbaijan separate Georgia from Iran. So my questions also include, how friendly are Iran and Russia? Any need to worry?

Naw! They’re Putin us on, punaise …

I believe this is what Bush said when he looked into Putin’s eyes, riffing off of Louis Armstrong:

Je

epers, creepers….whered ya get them peepers
Jeepers, creepers…whered ya get those eyes
Gosh oh, git up….howd they get so lit up
Gosh oh, gee oh….howd they get that size

Golly gee…when you turn them heaters on
Woe is me…got to put my cheaters on

Jeepers, creepers….whered ya get them peepers
Oh, those weepers….how they hypnotize

Jeepers, creepers….whered ya get them peepers
Oh, those weepers….how they hypnotize
Where did ya get those
Golly whered ya get those
Where did ya get them there eyes

Ian,

I don’t dipute these facts but you cannot state with a streight face that Russia is happy with a democracy on their border. My point is that there are no clean hands is this issue.

Thanks Ian.

snark:

Bush and the neocons have been saying for years that Russia is the central front in the GWOT.

/snark.

So much is dependent on the decisions of Bush, and he is ruled by an insular court that can’t really be understood from outside. So it’s honestly very hard to predict. It would be insane to go to war with Iran, but I would expect some more baiting.

Iran is more friendly to Russia than to the US, but its key great power ally has been China these last few years. Iran knows it would be bombed to hell if it gets involved in a war, so it won’t do anything serious. If all out war broke out… I’m sure Russia would ask Iran to cut supply lines in Iraq, etc… but if that happens, all bets are off and all sorts of shit starts going down (for example China might decide that was a good time to retake Taiwan.)

But I really doubt anything that dramatic will happen. War with Iran is far more likely than war with Russia, and war with Iran is unlikely, but not impossible. (Because who knows what Bush thinks God is telling him to do?)

And the pipelines! The one that connects the dictatorships south of Russia through the “democracy” of Georgia to the “West”. Or even the ones that connect Russia to the “West” through Ukraina. Pipelines which can be so easily blown up by clandestine means so can not really be protected by NATO. It is not as if the Russians are living upstream of water resources that can be diverted or poisoned but are otherwise free. They are in position to sell the energy and Europe buys. The outgoing flow of energy to Europe is just as important to Russia which wants the incoming flow of money. Cutting it off serves no real purpose. Wind turbines and nuclear power in western Europe pose more of a competition to Russian energy exports than any routing of non-Russian energy avoiding Russian soil. Besides the stuff will eventually run out, unfortunately well after the time that we should have stopped using it. Whatever it is, it’s not pipelines, the reasons are always more stupid and local.

Neither we nor the Russians want to get into a shooting war with each other, especially over Georgia. Neither the Russians nor the Chinese can or would get between us and the Iranians. They would criticize from the sidelines. We have apparently a big concentration of naval assets off the Persian Gulf in the offing, and that can’t be good. Because the French and British are involved, it is more likely to be a show of force than a use of force scenario.

Connecting dots and exposing warts

US Invades Iraq

Poland accepts a missile defense system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B….._pipeline.

Rove in Yalta on the 12th of July.

I suppose Cold War 2.0 becomes a good cover for oil’s agenda. Communist or terrorists threats while oil whores go laughing to the bank. Meanwhile America is enslave and shackled by criminal energy corporations, Executive Oil aka as corpo-fascists as Cheney uses the constitution for toilet paper. Who could have predicted Bhutto’s assassination or the events in Georgia?? Karl Rove maybe! No way huh! Fascist in the White House?

Also, I noticed on the map Georgia’s close proximity to Iran, although the Caspian Sea is probably also a fine way to access Iran from Russia. Still, only Armenia and Azerbaijan separate Georgia from Iran. So my questions also include, how friendly are Iran and Russia? Any need to worry?

There’s this, and this, but wrt to the current state of affairs between Iran and Russia, I don’t know…but Tehran is probably enjoying the whole thing.

(for example China might decide that was a good time to retake Taiwan.)

Oh, you mean while we’re caught with no strategic reserve, spent armaments, and we’re distracted on several different fronts already? Gee, who could have predicted?!!

((( Ian )))

… the M.I. Complex on both sides are rubbing their hands with glee …

Bring it on !

The prior link did not work!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B…..n_pipeline

… on the positive side, we could find employment for all in the Armed Services or private contractors therein … /s

In the good old days of the cold war, the left fell into two camps: pro-USSR and pro-USofA, or you could say pro-Stalinist and anti-Stalinist. Since life is more complicated than that, a third camp emerged. This group was critical of both sides: i.e. war in viet nam and invasion of Czechoslovakia.

I’m not getting a third camp message from Brother Welsh. I am getting a pro-Russian message. I’m getting the “everything the US does sucks” message from Brother Welsh. And, while I don’t disagree with that, it can not serve as a justification for Russian aggression.

I am at a loss as to how one can defend a modern day fascist state.

There are two sides to the story here. That doesn’t mean one side is more right than the other. Getting into a dick duel about who started the problem does not address the horrific human suffering in Georgia or in South Ossetia.

Do the neo-cons want to re-create the cold war? You betcha. After all the Islamofacism war is not going so well. Does Russia want to become the next ubber power? You betcha.

Defending one over the other is a waste of breath. Insisting that the Russians are the injured party here is naive.

It looks like the stalinist/anti-stalinist divide has been reborn.

Remember, there always is a third camp.

Russia warned over and over that it didn’t want a lot of NATO nations on its borders. Georgia is one of the buffer states, since Turkey is a NATO nation. It isn’t far from Turkey to Russia, and leaving Georgia as a buffer makes a great deal of sense.

So, of course, the current administration pokes at the Russians by pushing NATO membership at Georgia, as it has with a large number of other border states.

Heh, the current ad that was showing when I started reading was; ‘Find A Russian Beauty Today’… Conspiracy…? Aloha Ya’ll! ;-)

Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the West behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
That Georgia’s always on my mind

I’m back in the USSR…! ;-)

Bows to teh Supreme Master of the (P)Universe !

Yes, I was discussing a Russia/US war scenario, which I agree is so highly unlikely as to be close to impossible.

Okay, it’s an hour into the thread, can I vent?
I just had the most horrific experience just getting my kid on an airplane from LAX to DC.
And it was a lot to do with Homeland Security and living in LA. And, then, when I finally got on a freeway that was going 15 miles an hour All The Way Home, I turned on the news and heard bad news about Georgia.
I’m just a little miffed, hot, and pooped. That’s putting it nicely.
Pardon me while I cry.

There’s another big difference between 1980 and now, or rather several big differences. Is the United States and not Russia that is bogged down in Afghanistan, and to boot, in Iraq. It is the United States that is on the edge of an economic implosion, not Iraq. And one difference that probably always held, but holds even more today: it is Russian people who are prepared to make the necessary sacrifices to defend its sovereignty, not the Americans, who only like war if it is contracted out.

I’m hoping the Obama camp games this out, because any conflict with Russia that smacks of American imperialism is going to pull Europe towards Russia, not towards us. Russia is in their neighborhood, and they know from experience that if you don’t bait the bear, the bear doesn’t come after you.

(I actually watched bear baiting in the old Arbat. Felt sorry for the bear).

I don’t think the Russians care two beans whether Georgia is a democracy or not. It has absolutely no bearing on their strategic interest. Sure, Russia is an autocracy. So what. The world won’t end from it. It is not a dictatorship, and it is not totalitarian. It is authoritarian and a police state, a little like the United States is becoming and that the Neocons would like it to become.

Wow! A full employment policy! What a country!

In all seriousness, I’m just worried that since the world now knows our resources (blood, money and war equipment) are seriously depleted, someone or a combination of several someones are almost bound to call our bluff as we go around the world talking trash to other countries, telling them how they should live, how they should handle their own people and problems, and starting wars of aggression simply because we think we can.

Ah, so I’m pro-Stalin now, eh? Should probably declare me un-American, too.

I’m just stating facts. As best I can tell, leaving aside “war is always bad” issues, Russia reacted to a Georgian attack. That’s the fact. This isn’t grade school, in international affairs who threw the first punch matters. And smart countries don’t pick fights they can’t win. Georgia did both.

The facts favor Russia. Just the way it is. I’m not interested in false balance.

I wrote about Chechnya quite a number of times and in those cases I was decidedly against Russia. Why? Because it was a totally different war with totally different facts.

Russia is not always in the wrong, any more than the US is always in the right.

Georgia started the war. When Russia went to the security council, the West told Russia they wouldn’t call for a ceasefire. These are facts.

Russia then did exactly what any sane individual would expect it to do.

The vast majority of US press coverage has explicitly or implicitly blamed this on Russia. The facts simply do not back up Russia bearing primary responsibility.

And yes, blame does matter, because it effects the assumptions that people use to make future policy. Even Obama is now making stupid noises about letting the Ukraine into NATO.

Yeah. That’s a swift idea.

Georgia is, frankly, a small war that will soon be over, barring extreme stupidity, and it will lead to a return to the status-quo ante in most respects. But pursuing confrontational policies with Russia (or, rather, continuing to do so) risks more such situations. And some of them could be much, much, worse.

And then there’s this beauty:

Boycott the 2014 Winter Olympics, being held in Georgia.
Because it’s still 1980, and the middle of the cold war. And boycotting the 80 Olympics sure accomplished… what?

I think the 2014 Winter Olympics are being held in Sochi, the Russian Black Sea resort (and in the Caucasus hnterlands. Of course, Sochi is just a ski-jump away from the Georgian breakaway province of Abkhazia.

Already there have been some terrorist bombings in Sochi, which were initially declared to be the actions of criminal gangs”, but are now being foisted off on Georgian saboteurs. This war could make Sochi a target however, particularly if the Russians don’t withdraw from ethnic Georgian territory. If there are displaced refugees and if the reports of ethnic cleansing and killings by Abkhazian and Ossetian ationalists are correct, then there could be retaliatory attacks on the 2014 Olympics.

Ah, so I’m pro-Stalin now, eh? Should probably declare me un-American, too.

But, you’re one of them Red Canucks… Aren’t ya…? ;-)

Ian–the facts are not pure. What about allegations that the Russian peace keepers were taking sides even though they were suppose to be neutral? Or was that a Georgian pretense for its foray?

Your facts suggest that Russia is in the right about this. I’ve read similar stuff in the Guardian. Your writing on Chechnya not with standing, Russia’s imperialist motives for this invasion cannot be ignored. It is part of the story. By insisting on assigning blame you are giving cover to Russian imperialism.

Certainly that cover would never be afforded the US. And it shouldn’t be.

Another beef with Ian Walsh (from the original):

From the Russian point of view, its troops were attacked without provocation and an area under its protection was subject to ethnic cleansing. If it’s OK for the West to act to stop ethnic cleansing, why cannot Russia do so?

As for Saakashvili being forced to step down: Again, he started a war. Then he lost it. Why wouldn’t Russia say it won’t negotiate peace with the man who started the war?

All of this doesn’t sound like the USSR very much, or even the Russian empire. There is no evidence that Russia wants to reabsorb Georgia whole into it. It does want a friendly government on its border, but when you start and then lose a war, well, maybe the victors think they have the right to insist that the guy who started the war not make any more decisions.

I think it’s pretty clear that Russia, in fact, would love to reabsorb Georgia. (Remember Chechnya?) Plus, Russia/Putin hearts ramming it up America/Bush’s poop chute.

As far as Saakashvili starting this war, I agree 100%…but he was goaded into it, with Russia taunting him on one hand, and the US cheerleading Georgia on the other. Assholes on both sides….on every side.

Plus I agree with what Knut said about Georgian democracy. Russia has elections (just like the US!). This isn’t about democracy, and it sure as hell isn’t about Georgia being “one of the world’s first nations to adopt Christianity as an official religion,” to quote a wrinkled old guy. It’s about power.

Oopsy. Correcting, thanks.

I’m perfectly willing to say that Russia was complicit in what led up to the Georgian decision to attack (note that I have also seen accusations of Georgian troops infiltrating South Ossetia and being involved in ethnic cleansing), what I’m saying is that decision to attack was a massive escalation of the situation which was bound to draw a response.

I suppose I’ll give you that point. But I very much doubt they’re going to do it, or even ask for it. Georgia will remain independent.

Yes, the decision to attack was a massive escalation of the situation. Perhaps this is unintentional, but by delineating all the right steps Russia took to redress the situation, you portray Russia’s actions as understandable and therefore justifiable. Russia yearns to be an imperial power, again–just like the US.

Facts are not pure but they must be recognized.

Also important to remember that both Georgian and Russian peacekeepers were a legitimate part of an international peacekeeping arrangement, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). They were not freelancing or bogus.

There is bad blood on both sides, and both were exploiting the situation as much as they could. But that does not excuse a massive attack by one party, unless they can show that is was a necessary pre-emptive attack in order to defend their own borders. Anything else is very very bad, especially for a party (Gerogia) that wants to join a mutual *self-defense pact* with the US and Europe, and one that requires a *massive military response* to any attack on any of the members.

Do you want to US troops to be sent to defend a member state who started that kind of war? All the facts are not in yet, but I think the main outlines are becoming clear.

It is too bad that both the US and Russia have acted badly. But have people forgotten that we survived one Cold War. Rash gambles, foolish bluffs and ostentatious refusal to communicate were not what got us through that.

I do not understand why people have such an oddly defeatist and bitter attitude. Did risky invasions and military strife on the part of the US play an crucial role in winning the last Cold War?

I was a little too young to remember the politics. But I do remember some, and I can read. There was the exactly the same fretting and downcast conviction that the soft gullible rich and lax US and Europe could never win the Cold War. The Rooskies were hard, wiley, infinitely more cunning and patient and disciplined than the pampered goofs in the West. And of course, democracies just were not capable of the appropraite Resolve, Guts and Daring in confronting the bully. So, of course, rash and dramatic action was needed right away (before what deadline?), but, probably all was doomed.

How did that first Cold War turn out for you?

And I am a citizen of the US, and I have some influence there, and none in Russia or Georgia. So I will very loudly call US policy stupid and dangerous if I think it is, and recommend a better course for my country, and I do not care if anyone thinks that makes me pro-Russia.

Their economy is in the tank, too.

‘there are no good guys in this episode’

Including the guys running the USA.

Much of this jousting is about energy, but today’s doomsday weaponry means that these disputes can no longer be resolved by force.

Everyone in the world needs access to energy. It’s time to treat energy resources as a public trust, and to adopt binding arbitration among nation-states.

(PS: the US re-took Fallujah using pretty much the same approach that Russia used to re-take Grozny.)

Cold War 2.0 — bug riddled, and runs perfectly well on a Commador 64.
Not an upgrade; only renamed for marketing purposes.
All royalties devolve to corpofascists.

Got to your post late, but great job Ian. I am always amazed by honest attempts to analyze events that are met with derision by even supposedly progressive voices. No one seems to have a clue and in all probablity that includes me. But Russian paranoia might be better understood if people looked at a map of the NATO/Warsaw Pact line of the late 70’s and the map as it stands today.

To understand that, just assume that the U.S. econony has tanked, and suddenly Japan, Mexico and Canada are looking at treaties with the new power – China. China then pushes Cuba to eastablish an early missle defense system to protect Venezula from attack by us. Voila, the Pacific Treaty Alliance will “put a lid on nation building/regime change tendencies of America.” The analogy is simplistic and superfluous, but the psychology isn’t. I, like you, will not waste any breath defending the Russians. But Saakashavili and his “American” lobbyists in DC are hardly saints in this either.

The Neocons are deriding our western Europe allies for not doing anything about Georgia (even though it was France, as opposed to our powerless State Dept., who got something done.) And then moderates and even progressives suddenly go monocular: “Georgia good, Putin bad. Let’s do something. Hmmm. Can’t go to war – no troops available.” So let’s stamp our feet and talk about the rebirth of the red menace which surely will have tanks returning to the Brandenburg Gate within five years. We can’t be seen as unpatriotic – we’re all Georgians now (McCain/Obama for President tm.)

Wow, it’s been almost a century since the confluence of technology, population growth, nationalism and ill-begotten treaties met when the Serbian gang that couldn’t shoot straight stumbled upon a meaningless Archduke. The world hasn’t changed much since war went global. We still look at geo-politics through the lens of “my football team fanaticism” where all the dirty plays are by the other team and the refs never give us a break. Unfortunately, this always results in a lot of people who can’t afford a ticket getting killed or maimed. Pretty effin sad.

The “West” did not win the cold war. The very nature of it was such that it was a stale mate. Soviet Union did fall apart, but it crumbled from within. What the “West” did do was to help Russia into crony capitalist chaos by supporting an incompetent leader that was a drunk and taking advantage of a country in chaos. I think Poots deserves some credit for rebuilding from the wreck.

I think you’re wrong. Putting it on an individual level, if someone invades your space and challenges you, you either fight or run. Russia may not be a democracy (increasingly neither is the US) but Russia was asking not to be pushed and we pushed. I don’t know Saakashvili but I find it impossible to believe he challenged Russia without some encouragement from us. He may be a drunk, but hopefully he’s not crazy. It’s like the missle agreement with Poland. Who needs that? It is an in your face challenge. Bush plays a dangerous, pointless game, perhaps because as Ian said, God told him to.

I’m late to this post, but if Ian’s summary of the facts is correct, and it seems to be, then most everything we’ve heard from McCain, Bush, CRice, Krauthammer, is Idiot Wind.