Georgian Flag by ~si

Georgian Flag by ~si

Today’s Georgia news focuses on the terms of the "cease fire." The Russians handed French President Sarkozy the list of what they wanted to impose on the Georgians. The Russians aren’t done yet, Georgian control over disputed regions is likely finished, and international oversight isn’t nailed down. Bush is sending Rice to check the barn doors.

The Bush Administration is scrambling to simultaneously claim credit and deflect blame. In conveying the Administration’s alibi for allowing Georgia to stumble into an unwinnable war against Russia, the Times’ Helene Cooper and Thom Shanker also reveal how the Administration confused the public and private messages it was sending both the Georgians and the Russians. The obvious questions: Could the Administration have prevented the war and its humiliating defeat for Georgia (and itself)? And what if McCain had been President?

Like Jonathan Landay’s reporting for McClatchy, Cooper/Shanker detail the Administration’s insistence that they repeatedly warned Georgia’s President Saakashvili not to let the Russians provoke them into war.

In the five days since the simmering conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted into war, Bush administration officials have been adamant in asserting that they warned the government in Tbilisi not to let Moscow provoke it into a fight — and that they were surprised when their advice went unheeded.

But they also report that at critical moments, the Administration either sent mixed signals to the parties or simply failed to treat the matter with the seriousness it clearly required.

On the evening when hostilities were about to lunge out of control, Rice left a second tier State official the task of warning the Georgians, when what was clearly needed was to have President Bush himself remove any ambiguity about US policy (remember Cheney’s threat) and tell the Georgians in no uncertain terms to stop, that Georgia could not expect US help.

What was their excuse for not using the President (aside from his Olympic distraction)?

Ms. Rice did not get on the phone with her Georgian counterpart on Thursday, but left it to Mr. Fried to deliver the “don’t go in” message, a senior administration official said. “I don’t think it would have made any difference if she had,” the official said. “They knew the message was coming from the top.”

The Times article also notes the story Marcy Wheeler cited at emptywheel yesterday revealing the US had 1000 US troops (including military police) in a joint military exercise with Georgian forces just weeks before the war broke out. This crucial fact has been mostly ignored in recent US accounts, but it raises major questions about what message the US was trying to send and to whom.

A nation doesn’t undertake joint military exercises on Russia’s borders for no reason; it does so because it’s contemplating plausible scenarios in which both armed forces engage a common adversary.

Two points seem relevant here: First, even accepting the Administration’s claim that the US was not told of Georgian intentions, a line that both the Cooper and Landay stories make doubtful, the Georgians could reasonably have interpreted joint US exercises as a signal that Bush would help them in a crisis, no matter what Condi Rice was telling Saakashvili.

Second, the Russians knew about the joint exercise (and conducted their own); indeed such events are often designed to warn or intimidate, if not provoke an adversary. If the joint military exercise was intended as a bluff to convince the Russians the US would support the Georgians — as it would a NATO member — it was (1) incredibly reckless and (2) incredibly stupid, because no one would believe it: was there any doubt that Georgia was more important to the Russians than to the US? It was also (3) a complete failure. Putin called Bush’s bluff and humiliated Bush at Georgia’s expense.

If John McCain had been President, either of two things could have happened under this scenario, given his more belligerent stance towards Russia and the now glaring conflict of interest of the neocon ex-lobbyist-for-Georgia who advises him: Either McCain’s Sheunemannian bluff would have been called and both would now look as reckless and disingenuous as Bush, or we would now be facing war with Russia.

Of course, our media will continue to report this episode as revealing McCain’s superior claim to be Commander in Chief, but at least Saakashvili is no longer fooled; he probably wants a refund from Scheunemann and an explanation about whatever McCain led him to believe.

Related posts:

  1. Cheney Led Torture Briefings, Democrats Objected, Post Reveals; CIA, Republicans Mum on Veep’s Role
  2. The Doctor’s Fix Debacle: Reid Claims He was “Misled” by AMA on Deal for GOP Votes
  3. The Anti-Bush, Or Bush Lite?
  4. Disgraceful: In 8 Years, George W. Bush Never Greeted Fallen Troops
  5. Memo to Dems: Rahm, Not Hippies, Caused 1994 Debacle