Russian Tanks

Russian Tanks

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, countries on the edge of current day Russia have struggled to maintain a degree of autonomy, if not total independence, from Russian domination. The US and Europe found it in their strategic interests to foster this development, because they favored democratic regimes and wanted a check — a new containment — on renewed Russian expansion. That policy is now unraveling as Russian armed forces have entered Georgia, possibly intent on forcing regime change.

Today’s New York Times contains an excellent, must read article by James Traub. He provides an informed history of Georgia’s efforts to remain independent of Russia, and the efforts of South Ossetia and the Black Sea region of Abkhazia to remain autonomous from Georgia, efforts that served Russia’s interests and now form its excuse for invading both regions and Georgia. It seems many locals, fearing Georgia, would likely approve.

No one ever doubted that Russia, if provoked or given the right pretense and expansionist mood, could overwhelm Georgian forces, while claiming to be intervening only to protect each province’s autonomy from Georgia.

US strategic interests thus required we walk a careful line, on the one hand encouraging the success of democratic regimes, and on the other making sure neither we nor the leaders of those regimes provoked the Russian bear into intervening. With Russian forces now bombing Georgia and sending tanks and troops towards Georgian cities, that US policy is now in shambles, and there doesn’t seem to be much the US or Europe can do about it except fly Georgia’s 2,000 troops back from Iraq.

Since the Bush Administration has pursued policies no different from McCain’s, it was curious to see the esteemed pundits on Sunday’s bobblemania opining that yet another failure in US policy shows the superiority of John McCain’s foreign policy experience and judgment. First it was George Will on ABC’s This Week declaring that the episode revealed that Obama’s "initial response" was inadequate.

However, if you look at the actual responses by Obama and McCain, it’s hard to discern any meaningful differences, beyond tone. As Bumiller and Falcone report in the Times, both candidates urged the parties to refrain from further escalating the situation and both expressed concern about Russia violating Georgia’s sovereignty. Both called upon Russia to withdraw its forces from Georgia.

Then David Broder on Meet the Press praised McCain’s "prescience":

GREGORY: David Broder, is this a 3 AM moment in foreign policy for these candidates?

MR. BRODER: It is, and it’s particularly a moment where John McCain can claim to have been prescient, because in his basic foreign policy speech two months ago and in an interview that I did with him last week, he draws a very sharp line when it comes to Russia, says these people are being aggressive and imperialist. There is no confusion in his mind about the character of the Putin/Medvedev government. And he is prepared, I think, to make the case that this is a demonstration of exactly what he has been arguing for.

No one asked Broder how McCain’s threat to remove Russian from the G-8 was helpful or would have discouraged the Russians from invading Georgia, nor how McCain’s "prescience" negated Russia’s overwhelming advantages in the region. Neither pundit explained how McCain (or the US) could do much more than protest the Russian incursion or threaten to take the matter to a certain veto at the UN, which is what Secretary Rice will likely do.

To be sure, Obama’s campaign pointed out that McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, "lobbied for and has a vested interest in, the Republic of Georgia," a fact whose relevance increases if US strategic interests don’t totally coincide with Georgia’s — e.g. should we be fighting the Russians? McCain’s campaign responded that Obama was "in synch with Moscow." Broder did not reflect on what this baseless, outrageous smear says about McCain’s ethics or "prescience."

But more to the point, neither man is President. George Bush is President, and while he’s watching the Olympics, Rice and Hadley are in charge (except for whatever mischief Cheney is up to), probably examining a memo that says, "Russia likely to invade Georgia as payback." We’re safe.