UPDATE: Obama’s Energy Plan Speech today.
Over the weekend, both Obama and McCain signaled they’d accept a compromise on off-shore drilling. Obama doesn’t think more drilling is the solution but would consider it as part of a comprehensive set of solutions aimed at alternative fuels, increased efficiency, and a transition away from reliance on oil.
McCain is still chanting "drill more, drill now", and raking in the oil industry contributions(h/t TPM), but his spokesperson indicated Sunday he is willing to consider other measures to get it.
Obama’s willingness to accept a compromise came Friday, after a "gang of 10" Senators proposed a "bipartisan" compromise that would limit new drilling to the East and Gulf coasts (with the respective states’ concurrence), but not California and Alaska. In exchange, Democrats would finally secure approval of the tax credits/rebates for renewable energy sources that expire this year and Republicans have blocked. Among other things, the package would also provide new funding for low income energy assistance; it would set ambitious goals for a non-oil based auto fleet and provide incentives for US automakers to build more efficient cars.
Nancy Pelosi continues to oppose further off-shore drilling as a fraud that will do nothing in the near term to increase supplies or lower prices, and little in the long run. But while undeniably valid on the merits, that position was apparently losing popular support.
I think this is a smart move by Obama. More off-shore drilling is environmentally risky; as a supply or near-term price policy it’s delusional, and if done alone only locks us into an untenable future. But conditioning it in the framework of strict environmental protection, rather than immediate price/supply relief, and as part of a transition to something else, is where the debate needed to be.
The Republicans are demanding to drill more, drill now, but no new drilling will happen for years because it takes time to do the permitting and there are no additional rigs available. But now Republicans and oil companies will have to pay for it with immediate support for alternatives they had been holding up.
Obama had already proposed a $1000 rebate to help consumers deal with high gas prices this summer and higher heating costs next winter. (See new ad. h/t JPL9) Today he is scheduled to give an energy speech in Lansing, Michigan. Acccording to Chicago Sun Time’s Lynn Sweet, Obama’s plan will include the rebate, 5 million new green jobs, and a call for the US to "eliminate our need for Middle Eastern oil in 10 years."



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No, it’s not a smart move. It’s Just as stupid and offensive in its way as his FISA position. WTF are you praising him for acting like a (maybe) (more) moderate Republican?
I think it’s another example of Obama’s fecklessness.
Wise Man … Great Future President …
President O. ‘09
Morning Scarecrow,
Thanks, hope he can help defuse the issue, beings that the Republicans are successfully soundbiting the issue.
For example, Republican are continuing their oil party protest in the House again this morning, and there are no cameras rolling — at least inside. Surely there’s a bank of microphones right outside tho.
Oopsie, another hurricane roiling through the Gulf
link
Mornin’, Scarecrow.
I’m not going to get excited about what politicians say on the campaign trail. If some sort of energy package comes up in Congress this session both candidates may have a bully pulpit but their votes will be what really counts. I’ve found I understand a book better after I’ve read it rather than relying on reviews by folks who probably haven’t read the whole thing anyhow.
I reluctantly and grudgingly agree.
This time Obama seems to have a real compromise, not a capitulation as in the FISA debacle. It involves future localized environmental risk, but the benefits of “the the tax credits/rebates for renewable energy sources that expire this year and Republicans have blocked [and the] repeal the billions in tax breaks the oil companies got in the 2005 Energy Act” are near-term and nationwide.
Gee if Rs compromised & Ds didn’t cave it would be the first time in living memory. My human behavior model is that they highly likely continue to behave the way they have already been behaving.
Good morning all. A last minute post here, and I’ve made a few edits. I thought I had read the gang of 10 compromise would repeal tax credits for big oil, but I haven’t confirmed that. Anyone see that?
IMO, this will force the repubs to cave. They only want the drilling part and not the other economic stimulus that he is proposing.
I’ll believe if I see it. The Rs view the attempt at compromise as a sign of weakness and it spurs them to greater extremes, and usually victory.
Houston Chronicle
I don’t think anyone expects this “compromise” to pass; the oil companies will likely prevent that. My point is that Obama is smart to reframe the debate from “drill more, drill now,” to “drill only if . . . and only in conjunction with everything else we need to do for a different future.” That’s a much stronger position for Dems and for him, which is why I think McCain sent his lobbyist spokesperson out yesterday to diffuse this.
So far our very smart dems have managed to turn everything they touch into lead, not gold—the reverse midas touch. I too don’t expect them to have figured out how not to do this yet again. It’s become a conditioned reflex.
Morning Scarecrow and the rest of the crew.
thanks Elliot. I knew I had seen it somewhere.
Obama has a great new ad attacking McCain on his energy policy. You can link to it from http://www.thepage.time.com/
I agree with your post, Scarecrow. It’s difficult to prove a negative, that drilling won’t provide any short term relief or significant long term relief, so McCain, et. al. had another superficial issue for low info voters. This was not a hill to die on and quid pro quo makes sense to me.
I stayed up last night watching the move, The Contender for the first time since it came out. I had forgotten how good it was and what a principled, unyielding candidate (appointment to replace a VP) can look like. Stunning.
Pelosi also has the silliness of the GOP House folks to think about. From today’s edition of The Hill:
(The phrase “a sit-in by House Republicans” seems an oxymoron. Was there even a hint of tie-dye involved? Was anyone wearing sandals? Any interesting aromas wafting toward the gallery? Did they stay overnight and refuse to leave? Please. I know sit-ins. This was no sit-in. But I digress . . .)
I’m not ready to call Obama’s move a good one, but I’m leaning in that direction. Still, I can already hear Roy Blunt crowing “We forced Obama to capitulate!” This I can do without on a Monday morning.
It’s possible the Repubs and McCain overplayed their hand; only gift from Newt Gingrich, who came up with “drill more, drill now . . .” and prices fall. By insisting on this one thing and selling it as the solution, they gave the Dems and Obama bargaining leverage — “Okay, we’ll give you some, but in exchange, we want X, Y, and Z, and limts on drilling to protect the environment.” Let the republicans protest that deal.
If that’s what he’s thinking, it’s far to subtle for public to recognize. The Rs will continue to bill it as a Ds refusal to drill (assuming the bill fails), regardless of the reality. If that’s accurate, what did Obama gain but another appearance of caving to the Rs?
Not a bad move. Not at all.
Obama will not be able to to convince the 50% Brain Dead Electorate that off-shore oil is not, and will never be “Our Oil”.
The goop will go onto the open market for the going price, to the shortest destination. Likely Asia.
Same as it ever was.
oo thanks for the recommendation, RevDeb. Always appreciate them.
thanks. I can’t open that site, but if I can grab the ad, I’ll put it in the post.
Off to swim in the great capitalist cesspool.
Five more days to irritate my Rethug co-workers. heh heh heh They so hate having to use their little gray cells.
Be good to yourselves, and all other living things.
Namaste
Oh, and the Contender was played by Joan Allen showing a really strong woman facing down the a*holes who wanted to bring her down. Made in 2000—post Clinton but pre-W.
Morning all,
I think the group tantrum going on in the house when contrasted to the proposed compromise that came out of the senate shifts the debate and shows the repub fools in the house to not have have any clothes
is this the ad?
Namaste
Agreed. The devil is in the detail on that matter, and it’s possible that there is less to their concessions than meets the eye. In the FISA case, the gave us improvements over the expired PAA and protectons that were already in FISA, which was the current law of the land — in other words nothing that we didn’t already have.
I will take back my agreement to scarecrow if such is the case here.
Good Morning Scarecrow and Firedogs,
thank you Scarecrow. away from the toobz for a few days and I left with ‘Obama rethinks Offshore’ blerrgh . much better to see it fleshed out in your post. and I agree – it’s the smart move (although he’d better get to work on messaging – are you available ? *g*)
first, why the HELL does obama have to get mccains frigging aproval for anything?
they are running AGAINST each other, obama doesn’t need mccains approval, that’s the first thing
the second thing is this is an OBSURD “compromise”
here is the ONLY comrpomise that makes ANY sense;
DRILL THE LICENSES YOU OWN BEFORE YOU CAN GET ONE MORE LICENSE,
once they’ve exhausted their existing licenses, THEN we MIGHT look at give more, until then the ENTIRE discussion is REDICULOUS
my bold.
excuse me, but what agency is going to be responsible for the “strict environmental protection”? would that by any chance be stephen johnson’s epa?
scarecrow, i’m sorry to give you such a hard time. but i read the above and my reaction is somewhere between wtf? and wondering if we live on different planets.
RevDeb – love The Contender. in a film loaded with stellar performances, Oldman’s Shel’ (inspired by Lieberman ?) is a standout. yummy
I have an ineresting question for everyone, I have no answerl myself so it’s just a discussion;
if we found out new york had as much oil reserve as saudi arabia but we had to evacuate the island to get it, would we evacuate new york?
interesting question, no?
Here’s another example of how cavalier the pols on both sides of the aisle are wrt energy. From thinkprogress
but that, imo, is just the problem. this compromise can not be viewed in isolation from obama’s other “compromises” – otherwise we end up just like charlie brown who decides each time to trust lucy because he refuses to remember or take into consideration the historical record.
It was on one of the HBO’s so my guess is that it will be around that circuit for a while and it’s been out on DVD for a long time. Worth a re-look with current lenses on. A bit naive in some respects (like the colossal mess we’re currently in).
Hey, if NYCers get their proportionate share, I’ll be the first to volunteer to move out! *g*
I agree with your points selise but for the life of me I don’t know why this debate gets any play at all, the petro industry needs to exhaust the licenses they own, period, there needs to be no new licenses till they exhaust those that exhist or begin to lose money trying
Ha, once again we think alike. I was thinking of using the Charlie Brown analogy, but decided on another tack.
they would obviously have to get a proportionate share
Let the drilling start off Kennebunkport, Maine.
Are the Dems adjourning without anyone to keep tabs on Bush appointments and assorted recess trickery?
Read somewhere this morning that BushCo is engaged in scorched-earth, last days activities, destroying whatever they can before the next prez is in place. Which suggests to me they don’t believe McBush will prevail.
I thought of a parallel to that a while back.
Suppose incalculable reserves were found around Mt. Rushmore.
A lobotomy for Teddy Roosevelt?
New York could become New Dubai.
No damage to be done by this—not:
yes, we live on different plants. I’m from Oz. My assumptions:
1. The bill will not pass this year; but even if it does . . .
2. The time it takes to prepare new offers and issue permits is well into next year or beyond.
3. The EPA will be under a new Administration
this is about positioning for November.
Okay to give me a hard time.
Good morning Cbl.
Figured out this would happen about 3 years ago. I remember exactly where it occurred to me, at a particularly scenic spot during a long bicycle ride. We ain’t seen nuttin yet.
well, this has been a long running topic of conversation between scarecrow and i – at least since the morning of november 8, 2006 (along with revdeb, lisadawn, and kathryn in ma). i got jump on then and i must be a masochist because i keep plugging away at it.
Have you heard whether C-Span is gonna cover the garbage?
Is there a DIYDDIYD for Dems (Damned If You Do; Damned If You Don’t) similar to the IOKIYAR? :-((((
Masochist sez to sadist: Hit me. Sadist sez: No.
No chance that the R sadists won’t take every opportunity to hit us. Are we having fun yet?
I never heard that!
excellant
If you care about the environmental risks of more off-shore drilling, we should not be encouraging/pressuring the oil companies to drill on the permitted areas already approved. They sit on these permits because, as Ian reminds us, the oil is more valuable in the ground (based on expected future prices) than it is today. And they won’t drill faster than the availability of drilling rigs allows — there’s a 2-3 year back log on this. The drill more, drill now mantra is delusional; it can’t happen, so don’t buy into it’s implicit assumptions.
off for the day, see all later
No cameras will be running in the House because it’s not in session. CSPAN did give Rep Spence a callin this morning to go on about it, and I figure there will be plenty of press conferences. They are doing it for the attention.
well good morning baby . . .did I ever tell you there are some mornings where Boyfriend Pillow just doesn’t cut it ?
thanks.
but in the mean time we have a catastrophe looming, and we can’t afford to kick the can down the road in any way – including conceding rhetorical ground. there is a case to be made and it seems that obama is willing to concede on every issue except the one that he wants to be president. all i’m left with is to wonder why.
As I recall, my friend, I defended you that morning.
Old as the hills (think I was a callow youth when I first heard it), but no matter how long you live, you can’t know everything. More’s the pity.
lol!
You’re wicked. I like that about you! *g*
Oh sure and we will investigate bushco and FISA sometime in the future as well… Look the guy has good but diminishing support as of now but if this “compromise” crap continues he will lose the enthusiasm of the youth vote and then he can go straight to being a lobbyist without having to worry about being pres. first
Quick! Someone bring a bucket of cold water!!
Just saw a cartoon to that effect:
First block: pollster telling gwb, “Sir, this says four out of five presidents are against you drilling on public land.”
Second block: oil derricks sitting on top of the presidents’ heads.
Off to do project of one sort or another. bbl
but that is the very point, there is no reason to drill ANY reserves if they won’t drill the ones they have
the oil in the ground is worth more then out of the ground, for the time being only, what’s the differance if these are licenses they have or do not have…nothing, that’s what
also, I happen to disagree with ian in the long run, we do NOT need oil, that’s propaganda, once the alternative market gets underway oil will devalue
but that last point has nothing to do with the first, it’s a rediculous compromise, the only compromise that makes ANY sense is the one that insists they exploit their existing lincenses before they get any new
that’s simple enough and IS AN EXCELLANY political position, EVERY republican, including the neo cons I speak agree wtih that point of view when they are informed the petro industry refuses to exploit the licenses they already own
obama is a sell out plain and simple, he has corrupted himseilf, first he sold out to the telcoms, not the petro
I am not going to be happy with this man one bit
No doubt we are losing precious time and engaging in insipid debate. But that has been true for 8 years or more. Nothing about that will change with this President and ths Congress. The hope, and it ain’t much, is to get this current regime out of the way, elect more/better people and hope we can do better next year. The other strategy involves pitchforks. Haven’t seen a poll on that one.
okay, so I’m two years behind in my Book Salon reading, but am now finally getting to read Kevin Phillips’ American Theocracy – just getting to the section on the aging and moribund infrastructure of the extractionists and just where their current level of desperation may take them – yikes !
he’s looking increasingly savant everyday.
and here’s a Kos diary from late last week underscoring Kevin’s point – that $1500 a second – not so much
devilstower
barbara’s naive question of the day (on top of “Are the Dems protecting Congress during the recess to mitigate against Bush appointments et al?”):
Can any of the damage being done now (bills approved, et al) be undone once Obama is in office (I’m trying to sound supremely confident), assuming there’s still Dem majority in House/Senate? In other words, is it possible that some of these compromises are doggie treats to buy time until January 2009?
Wow. It’s so cool that Time magazine in linking directly to Obama’s website.
This is a smart move by Obama. He’s taken away the biggest talking point Rush and Sean have had since Reverand Wright.
As I recall, we were all in agreement about the underlying principles. We were just a bit exhausted, angry that Liarman won—bitter perhaps—and not talking/thinking as clearly as we normally did. It was a really bad morning.
That should shape the debate. I thought the spill on the Mississippi might do it, but this surely will.
i do think you felt bad for me when the tears got the better of my self control (aside to pups – it was way too little sleep and so much work and emotional investment in the lamont campaign, not anything anyone said). but i don’t recall anyone defending or supporting in anyway my position that we shouldn’t assume anything about the new dem majority in congress (and pelosi in particular) – we should judge them on their actions going forward and not be like charlie brown or the abused spouse who keeps saying that this time it will be different.
and yes, i’m now wishing i had done a better job of following my own advice. i confess to engaging in way too much wishful thinking the past year and a half and i’m still trying to learn from experiece. so in no way am i giving you a hard time that i don’t also give myself.
If they pass the bill but it takes too much time for actual purchases of said leases, a new congress could reverse it—if there was a will to do so. BIG “IF.”
Like a spoiled rotten child throws things for attention.
Your position may be valid on the merits, but it was getting it’s butt kicking in the polls.
Are you assuming that drilling in already permitted areas is environmentally preferable to drilling in yet to be permitted areas? I don’t make that assumption. It’s risky almost everywhere, which is why I don’t want to pressure the oil companies to move on existing leases. Let them delay, for years. Offering new leases doesn’t speed that up; they just sit in the asset bank.
The point is to reduce reliance on oil so that the pressure to drill more gets overtaken by its costs, relative to alternatives. To get there, we need the renewable tax credits renewed; we need to repeal incentives for oil companies to do other things and even tax them for doing so; we need to focus dollars on conservation/technology; and we need to recycle tax dollars from bad things back into the economy to relieve those most harmed. Obama’s plan has all these elements, but people think we’re talking about football cartoons because he’s said “I’ll give you more drilling permits, but only if we get all this other stuff.”
laws can be changed. lifetime appointments for judges – not so much.
if the laws do get changed, i will very happily take back my charlie brown analogy.
Here’s hot off the Glob’s wire:
why? even if that would work, isn’t it a very short sighted “solution” – one that can not be continued for very long?
RevDeb @ 46 – (”Reply” has quit working )
this is the 3rd Major Valero Event in as many years – the link shows their citations for both “serious” and “repeat” events (link explains the two)
how dangerous do you have to be to have Elaine Chao citing an Oil Company for violations ?!?!?
link
I just report. You decide.
I would guess that the rethugs were planning to do that before the election anyway—they’ve played games with the price of gas with regularity every 2 years around October—so perhaps this is a pre-empt.
Appointments made during recess are temporary, lifetimes are pretty short.
you would probably have to blow up the Crawford “ranch” with an oil mishap to get her attention.
OT – does anybody know if Harry Reid is gonna have somebody come in, open the doors, turn on the lights, and gavel the Senate into session every few days throughout August?
Changing laws is not so easy. It is unclear that the Democrats will win a filibuster busting majority in the Senate but even if they did it is still possible for conservative Democrats like those in the current Gang of 10 to vote with Republicans. The obverse of this is that Democrats have throughout the Bush Administration had sufficient numbers to filibuster and block Bush legislation and nominations but they haven’t. Even if Frist had changed the rules on filibusters, Democrats could have tied the Congress in knots with parliamentary maneuvering. And of course after 2006 the House which has no filibuster could have effectively blocked action on anything the Democrats did not want. Finally, the removal of the filibuster would have Republicans staring down a gun which they loaded and aimed at themselves come next January.
Consumption is going down how do you spell reduce the supply
Happy 47th birthday to Barack Obama!
Yes, that’s still the plan.
Reply doesn’t work if the page is still loading but works fine if you are patient and can wait the loading process.
At least that’s what I’ve found using Firefox or Safari.
Even if oil is not used for energy, oil will still be useful. It’s a biochemical sludge that is incredibly useful for all sorts of industrial processes. In fact burning the stuff for fuel is something our descendents will come to look back on with incredulity, like wiping your butt with gold leaf.
But we’re a ways away from getting off oil entirely. Even with a huge push, I don’t see that for 30 years or so.
Yes, he is. No recess appointments for the crybaby in chief.
MeteorBlades has a post up on this. Looking at the seventh generation is important—if not vital.
this isn’t true, the polls show “should we drill or shouldn’t we drill”
that’s an incorrect poll, the poll should be;
“do you want the petro companies to use the licenses they have before they get new ones”
that poll be be a resounding “yes”
obama’s position should be;
“of course we should drill, that’s why these petro corps need to exploit the licenses they have and we will NOT give them more midlde class assets so they can aquire more of our treasure UNTIL they use the assets they refuse to use now”
yes, I am, that’s why we allowed these licenses and didn’t allow the others
good – thanks, hadn’t heard anything about it.
so true.
if we had a program the scope of the moon landing, i can’t see this taking more then ten years and we would be dependant right now if not for reagan rescinding those programs that were designed to do just that
wether I am right or wrong doesn’t really matter, we need to make an effort with an even greater scope then the lunar project
that will give us jobs, it will put to use all the paper that has been dumped on the market and the price of petro won’t be as dramatic
digg this
i concede. excellent points. and a necessary corrective to excessive wishful thinking on my part.
Replacing that much moving metal is a real problem. Plus peak capacity energy tends to be oil turbines, you’ve got the world’s airline fleets, militaries, almost every ship in the world, etc… If you’re really really crazy agressive with buy backs and penalties and you get all the major nations onside, maybe half in 10 years. But that’d be beyond Marshal level, that’d be WWII.
Christy’s upstairs:
http://firedoglake.com/2008/08…..le-of-law/
there are so many sources of unexplored energy it boggles the mind, there is of course hemp, there is of course wind, there is tide energy, geo thermal energie, obviously solar, there is liquid coal (which would have to be cleaned up as far as mining and processing I know), there is human power, for instance, instead of riding a stationary bike that uses electricity for readouts I should ride a bike that drives a generator
there are now solar batteries that take the place of your alternator and therefore add about 3 horsepower of efficiency to every engine, I myself have three inventions that definately improve efficiency by about 3 horsepower on every single standard engine
I cannot believe we are 30 years out, but that doesn’t matter, all that matters is we make a start, as soon as inroads are realized the value of petro will be reduced
I agree with your post here ian
Is there some other usage for all of my gold leaf?
We are already 30 years out from when we first thought about doing this and tried to put the policies in place. It turned out that we couldn’t sustain the political support beyond Carter, although California and other states with large enough budgets kept chugging along on conservation/efficiency. 30 years is optimistic.
if we consider politics you might be right, however the politics now are surely favoring this direction.
reagan was possibly more damaging over all then bush and this is one of the reasons
in any event, the new licensing is no stop gap until they exploit their existing license, and believe me, even republicans agree with that point, they just don’t know that point exists
But perris, that’s part of the problem; to paraphrase Mr Rumsfeld a bit, we’re dealing with the poll that is not that poll that should be.
Here’s the scoop on offshore drilling…
There is NO INFRASTRUCURE built to handle offshore drilling in these new locations. To get oil out from the continental shelf at the west coast of Florida for example, new underground pipelines need to be laid. Then, there needs to be land-based infrastructure along the Florida coast that holds the oil. Floridians need to take a little tour of the Texas/Louisiana coast to appreciate the beauty (sights and smells) of having refineries/oil depots dotting the coastline.
I think it should be left up to the states to decide how they want to proceed. For now, Floridians think they want to drill offshore, but in all likelihood, the cost/benefit ratio of drilling offshore will not be in their favor. It’s an issue that with time, the electorate will understand what is at risk and what is to be gained.
Oil companies stock value is related to their known reserves. The more reserves they have on the books, the greater the value. That doesn’t mean that they are ever going to exploit the leases. They would like to have these leases added to their portfolio though. Looks good to the shareholders.
Here is an example of what is required to get one deep-sea offshore drilling rig online.
- Do sisemic testing to evaluate the potential for oil. (year or better)
- Partner with other oil companies to shoulder the risk.
- Order rig. The existing available drill ships are booked solid for the next 5 years. If you want to build a new drill ship, then you can put your name on the list and wait 6 years at a minimum for it to be built. All shipyards are running at capacity right now.
- Tow the drill ship to it’s new location (3 months)
- Build local infrastructure
- Begin testing
The largest drill platform in the Gulf of Mexico has been working on getting up for the past 2 years, and it has not produced a drop of oil yet. It had some Hurricane Dennis damage, and some structural design issues that needed to be worked through. The discovery well was drilled in 1999.
From start to finish (and it’s not quite there yet) the process has taken over 9 years.
definitely worth listening to the video uptop
i think a couple of my comments got lost in the toobz. just wanted to say thanks for your take. i’ve had way too little sleep and not enough coffee to come up with my own.
At the end of the Clinton Administration, nearly all Republics were apoplectic about releasing oil from the strategic oil reserves because of price jumps then. Now, they are strangely quiet. Is it possible that the Republics put Party before Country?
Thanks; that’s very helpful background.
I think this is a smart approach by Obama as well. The prize to keep your eye on is improved efficiency standards and promoting alternatives. Big oil would MUCH rather have that shelved than to have more offshore sites opened for lease. Clamoring to lift restrictions on offshore sites is a way to shift eyeballs away from ambitious goals for improved efficiency without openly opposing it. In other words, for goopers, it’s better to talk positively about something that won’t work than to talk about nothing, or worse, talk negatively about something that makes good sense -efficiency and alternatives.
From what I’ve read, this offshore drilling wouldn’t even be profitable so let them have their off shore drilling. Who will they pump the oil to — no refineries available. This sounds like a phirric victory for the Republicans and the Democrates get improved efficiency standsrds and support for alternative fuels.
Its clever because it take a point of attack off the table. You are dreaming if you believe this drilling will happen in anyone here’s lifetime. The oidl is more valuable in the ground, sorry under the ocean.
An there are no drill ships available for over 5 years.