Comments on: Republicans Vote Against Lower Oil and Gas Prices and for Illegal Immigration and More American Troop Deaths http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/ Firedoglake weblog Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:54:48 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: MsJoanne http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1558280 MsJoanne Sun, 27 Jul 2008 21:35:53 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1558280 <p>Ian, thank you. This was an outstanding article!</p> Ian, thank you. This was an outstanding article!

]]> By: muckdog http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1558035 muckdog Sun, 27 Jul 2008 19:13:22 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1558035 <p>Well, the only fly in this ointment is that we’re not seeing the increase in oil prices inflating the costs of goods and services. Year over year percentage change in the core CPI <a href="http://thelearningcurve.blogspot.com/2008/07/core-inflation.html" rel="nofollow">is just 2.3%</a>.</p> <p>The reason higher energy prices tend to bring inflation numbers down is because if you’re sending more money to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to fuel up your car, your spending less money at the mall. As inventory piles up on store shelves, stores lower prices to move it.</p> <p>Like what’s happening in the housing market. Prices are coming down because of increasing inventory. Less customers in restaurants? 2-1 deals, coupons, etc. That’s what’s happening and that’s why inflation at the core remains tame.</p> Well, the only fly in this ointment is that we’re not seeing the increase in oil prices inflating the costs of goods and services. Year over year percentage change in the core CPI is just 2.3%.

The reason higher energy prices tend to bring inflation numbers down is because if you’re sending more money to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to fuel up your car, your spending less money at the mall. As inventory piles up on store shelves, stores lower prices to move it.

Like what’s happening in the housing market. Prices are coming down because of increasing inventory. Less customers in restaurants? 2-1 deals, coupons, etc. That’s what’s happening and that’s why inflation at the core remains tame.

]]> By: Ian Welsh http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557824 Ian Welsh Sun, 27 Jul 2008 07:32:36 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557824 <p>On thinking it through, I’ll state that I expect under 100 barrel oil by the end of the year, and possibly as soon as Sept/october. $80-90 by middle of next year.</p> On thinking it through, I’ll state that I expect under 100 barrel oil by the end of the year, and possibly as soon as Sept/october. $80-90 by middle of next year.

]]> By: AngryB http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557438 AngryB Sun, 27 Jul 2008 03:30:11 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557438 <p>It’s called work shutdown. It gets noticed very quickly and the politicians usually respond, especially if they are presented as part of the problem, and understand that their job is on the line if they don’t make an attempt to fix the situation.</p> It’s called work shutdown. It gets noticed very quickly and the politicians usually respond, especially if they are presented as part of the problem, and understand that their job is on the line if they don’t make an attempt to fix the situation.

]]> By: selise http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557402 selise Sun, 27 Jul 2008 03:02:28 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557402 <p>something weird happened to my comment. trying again:</p> <p>2008 Jul-01 140.97<br /> 2008 Jul-02 143.57<br /> 2008 Jul-03 145.29</p> <p>2008 Jul-07 141.37<br /> 2008 Jul-08 136.04<br /> 2008 Jul-09 136.05<br /> 2008 Jul-10 141.65<br /> 2008 Jul-11 145.08</p> <p>2008 Jul-14 145.18<br /> 2008 Jul-15 138.74 —– S.3268 introduced<br /> 2008 Jul-16 134.6<br /> 2008 Jul-17 129.29<br /> 2008 Jul-18 128.88</p> <p>2008 Jul-21 131.04<br /> 2008 Jul-22 127.95 —– S.3268 cloture vote passed 94-0</p> something weird happened to my comment. trying again:

2008 Jul-01 140.97
2008 Jul-02 143.57
2008 Jul-03 145.29

2008 Jul-07 141.37
2008 Jul-08 136.04
2008 Jul-09 136.05
2008 Jul-10 141.65
2008 Jul-11 145.08

2008 Jul-14 145.18
2008 Jul-15 138.74 —– S.3268 introduced
2008 Jul-16 134.6
2008 Jul-17 129.29
2008 Jul-18 128.88

2008 Jul-21 131.04
2008 Jul-22 127.95 —– S.3268 cloture vote passed 94-0

]]> By: selise http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557401 selise Sun, 27 Jul 2008 03:00:43 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557401 <blockquote><p> Except, you know, they assume those things happen so fast, and such small departuers from equilibrium that they don’t make a big splash</p></blockquote> <p>which, i think, would mean we’d never see a bubble.</p>

Except, you know, they assume those things happen so fast, and such small departuers from equilibrium that they don’t make a big splash

which, i think, would mean we’d never see a bubble.

]]> By: selise http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557400 selise Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:59:12 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557400 <blockquote><p>All fundamentals? What fundamentals does he think explain a $20/barrel drop in a week?</p></blockquote> <p>well, i had an hypothesis to explain it - until i was proven wrong yesterday when S.3268 went down in flames. if speculators were reacting to the possibility of re-regulation, then friday prices should have gone back up. they didn’t. <a href="http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/23/how-futures-affect-the-price-of-oil/#comment-1553305" rel="nofollow">data from link</a> hugh gave us in your previous thread:</p> <p>2008 Jul-01 140.97<br /> 2008 Jul-02 143.57<br /> 2008 Jul-03 145.29</p> <p>2008 Jul-07 141.37<br /> 2008 Jul-08 136.04<br /> 2008 Jul-09 136.05<br /> 2008 Jul-10 141.65<br /> 2008 Jul-11 145.08</p> <p>2008 Jul-14 145.18<br /> 2008 Jul-15 138.74 2008 Jul-16 134.6<br /> 2008 Jul-17 129.29<br /> 2008 Jul-18 128.88</p> <p>2008 Jul-21 131.04<br /> 2008 Jul-22 127.95 </p>

All fundamentals? What fundamentals does he think explain a $20/barrel drop in a week?

well, i had an hypothesis to explain it – until i was proven wrong yesterday when S.3268 went down in flames. if speculators were reacting to the possibility of re-regulation, then friday prices should have gone back up. they didn’t. data from link hugh gave us in your previous thread:

2008 Jul-01 140.97
2008 Jul-02 143.57
2008 Jul-03 145.29

2008 Jul-07 141.37
2008 Jul-08 136.04
2008 Jul-09 136.05
2008 Jul-10 141.65
2008 Jul-11 145.08

2008 Jul-14 145.18
2008 Jul-15 138.74
2008 Jul-16 134.6
2008 Jul-17 129.29
2008 Jul-18 128.88

2008 Jul-21 131.04
2008 Jul-22 127.95

]]> By: Ian Welsh http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557379 Ian Welsh Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:37:54 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557379 <p>Heh. I’m not sure yet, my hedge is - under a hundred, by middle of next year. With probably a drop before them.</p> <p>But you know, I more often regret underbidding my predictions than overbidding them, except when it comes to time frames. I tend to understate how bad it’ll be and assume it’ll happen sooner than it will. Usually because my real guesses are such outliers. I’m trying to break that habit.</p> Heh. I’m not sure yet, my hedge is – under a hundred, by middle of next year. With probably a drop before them.

But you know, I more often regret underbidding my predictions than overbidding them, except when it comes to time frames. I tend to understate how bad it’ll be and assume it’ll happen sooner than it will. Usually because my real guesses are such outliers. I’m trying to break that habit.

]]> By: Ian Welsh http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557377 Ian Welsh Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:35:48 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557377 <p>Yeah, oil demand down is a fundamental. It might have something to do with the drop. So hard to tell when you’re not a player in the market and the market is as opaque as this one.</p> Yeah, oil demand down is a fundamental. It might have something to do with the drop. So hard to tell when you’re not a player in the market and the market is as opaque as this one.

]]> By: wesgpc http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557372 wesgpc Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:32:31 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/07/26/republicans-vote-against-lower-oil-and-gas-prices-and-for-illegal-immigration-and-more-american-troop-deaths/#comment-1557372 <p>I’ve thought abot making a prediction too. But I have decided to chicken out. Or since I am a statisitcian, I may be able to get away with the fearless prediction of 95% confidence interval of $100 to $150 in current dollars for next year. Baring Middle East war, mega-volcano, or very bad hurrican season. Or McCain victory, which may be same as Middle East war (or near equivalent).</p> <p>I cannot believe speculation is responsible for 25% of current price level, or that any Chinese stockpiling is responsible for 25% either.</p> <p>But maybe the weak evidence of inventory mediated speculative futures market effect, together with temporary surge in demand, and any funny stuff on unregulated futures markets combined is enough, and the I get my statistican’s 5%-of-the-time fudge factor for being wrong.</p> <p>I am soooo fearless! Commodities prices are random walks in short to medium run anyway, so everything is scenario based.</p> <p>OK, I stuck my neck out. Your turn.</p> I’ve thought abot making a prediction too. But I have decided to chicken out. Or since I am a statisitcian, I may be able to get away with the fearless prediction of 95% confidence interval of $100 to $150 in current dollars for next year. Baring Middle East war, mega-volcano, or very bad hurrican season. Or McCain victory, which may be same as Middle East war (or near equivalent).

I cannot believe speculation is responsible for 25% of current price level, or that any Chinese stockpiling is responsible for 25% either.

But maybe the weak evidence of inventory mediated speculative futures market effect, together with temporary surge in demand, and any funny stuff on unregulated futures markets combined is enough, and the I get my statistican’s 5%-of-the-time fudge factor for being wrong.

I am soooo fearless! Commodities prices are random walks in short to medium run anyway, so everything is scenario based.

OK, I stuck my neck out. Your turn.

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