I have thought all along that one of the major reasons Little Boots looked so unhappy after a couple of meetings with Putin is Putin told him in no uncertain terms that Russia would have Iran’s back if anything were launched at Iran directly.

As scary as that kind of war would be it’s actually good to hear this from Russia. I hope the current prez also sees it that way. Sometimes the risk of horrendous catastrophe can be enough to deter even George from doing something stupid.

yet the president was not spirited to an undisclosed location, he remained for some 45 minutes in the venue known for weeks

I think you underestimate what an engrossing read “My Pet Goat” can be.

Heh.

Here’s a brilliant Poly Sci Prof’s interpretation…

On both sides, politicians and media frequently paint a picture of a zero-sum confrontation between Western and Islamic societies. The meaning of the confrontation and the path to resolving it would be instantaneously transformed if it were instead perceived as a confrontation between power-hungry, violence-prone elites on one side and common people on the other.

Many groups benefit from this confrontation:

* Politicians (in Western electoral systems; Christian, Jewish, and Moslem fundamentalist movements; and Moslem dictatorships) use fear and nationalism to marshal support;
* Arms manufacturers gain endless profit from endless war;
* Big Oil (both Western oil companies that buy the petroleum and corrupt elites in Moslem societies who sell the petroleum) just keeps getting richer as the price rises.

Gmae theory assumes a lot of rationality, and often the wrong types. The “not to your advantage because of economic ties” argument was floated before WWI. It rather notably failed. Relative levels of trade, at that time, btw, were actually larger than they are now. In certain key respects then that was a more globally integrated world than the one we’re in today.

the other thing is to not mistake rulers for the ruled. It is of very little to no interest to Bush or Cheney how many Americans die, or how miserable their lives are. It does not enter into their calculations except as much as it effects their own power and since power is two dimensional in this case (within the group, between groups) and since weakening internal actors leads to them having more power in the group, the tradeoff that it weakens them slightly externally may well be acceptable to them.

Elites who have lives that are too separate from the people they rule cannot be assumed to act in those people’s interest. In fact one should automatically assume the opposite – that they act in the interest of others only to the extent that that interest is also theirs.

Altruism exists, certainly. But it’s very very bad policy to depend on it and very bad analysis to expect it.

But it’s been 2500 years of war in that region, and there is still no peace in sight.

They do not yet understand that WE (humans) do not own the land. It owns us. It owns us from the moment we are born to the moment we die. Then it owns our bones or ashes.

At best, we rent the air and food.

Yesterday, the world got quite a jolt when it was reported that Israel had set up a staging base in Iraq to attack Iran.

That’s why the price of oil jumped the way it did.

We can only influence.

My B.A. is in Poli Sci. My M.A. is in Sociology, with a specialty in Social Stratification… how power is structured within groups, from something as small as a couple to the whole planet. I subscribe to a theory called “realpolitik.” I also subscribe to “game theory.”

It would take forever to explain them. But the bottom line is we are looking at a scenario in which there is no “win-win” because the actors, meaning the US, Iran, and Israel, do not perceive one. That being the case, they pursue realpolitik as the means for achieving their own win, the other side be damned. And yes, that may mean a shooting war.

The only way to prevent it is to persuade all sides that the economic devastation that will be felt by their peoples in a war is far more significant than any differences they have now. That they are so dependent on each other, they can’t possibly attack.

I’m open to suggestions for how to do that.

or am i reading you wrong?