1?

Go get ‘em Ian!

Hi Betsy

ian!

*waves*

Ian, Iran is well prepared for any ‘Shock and Awe’…! I find it ironic that the USS Abraham Lincoln was moved outta the Arabian Gulf after the little missile display…! ;-)

putting this into the news box in just a few minutes

Hamas Arrests First Rocket Squads Since Truce

Wow Ian- the breadth of what you bring to FDL continues to amaze me! Thanks.

Evening all. What you say, Ian, is absolutely true. Unfortunately the Cheney Mob has never let a little thing like truth or reality stop them in the past, why should we expect they will now?

Good evening, Ian, Betsy, Gnome, and all-

there is a real chance of serious naval losses, possibly even including an aircraft carrier.

Your fears are very well-founded. When this was gamed out in 2002, the Red Team commander, Gen. Paul Van Riper, put 16 ships on the bottom, including an aircraft carrier. More here.

This ain’t even close to one of those times.

I know for a fact that there are sane folks at State and Defense who understand this. I pray that they are able to make their superiors bow to the logic of the situation.

Also while Iran is not insane, nor (I think) is Israel. The Cheney Mob on the other hand is stark raving batshit crazy.

Remember that this is the Cheney Mob we are dealing with. Logic and sanity do not apply.

Pepe Escobar nails the facts down as no other can…

As a political statement, the missile test was impeccable – delivered the exact same day the leaders at the Group of Eight meeting in Japan were calling for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, to which it has a right under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to which it is a signatory.

Then there are the internal, rhetorical cross currents – a very delicate ballet. The head of the Iranian air force, General Hossein Salami, said Iran is very much aware of “enemies who in recent weeks have threatened Iran with harsh language”. According to the Iranian press, Salami also said, “Our hands are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch.”

Predictably, the US government dubbed the test “a threat” – as if Washington and Israel had been sending love letters to Tehran lately.

Brigadier General Mohammad-Najjar was much more conciliatory. He made it clear “our missile capacity is just for defensive purposes, to safeguard peace in Iran and the Persian Gulf region … Our missiles will not be used to threaten any country, they are only intended for those who dare attack Iran”.

And all this happened only one day after Ali Shirazi, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s liaison with the IRGC navy, had said, “If Washington and Tel Aviv are foolish enough to even consider attacking Iran, our initial response would be to target Israel and set US interests in the Persian Gulf ablaze.” The Pentagon took no time to register this particular message. The next day, the USS Abraham Lincoln was moved to the Arabian Sea.

Thank the Holy Heavens that the ‘Democrat’ Party is there in Congress. Ready to shut this sort of thing down!

Yes with such stalwarts as Kerry, Schumer, Reid, and the newly anointed ‘presumptive nominee’ we’ve got the sort of fighting folks we need to stop this insanity….

Er….

Well, we can always fall down on our knees and beg Miss Nancy and ‘SellOut’ Reid to do something.

Be about as much use as a mustache on a duck.

I do feel safe in predicting that if gas does quintuple overnight that there will be blood running in the gutters.

Here.

Frankly I don’t think the military would obey orders to attack Iran. Not for very long. Them Admirals? They value one of their big Ol’ fat aircraft carriers a lot more than say…

….the population of San Francisco.

The Cheney Mob on the other hand is stark raving batshit crazy.

They really seem to truly believe that “We create our own reality” B.S. Good evenin’ from the Sunshine State, Dr. Dick.

Yep, the entire Fifth Fleet ended up as the most expensive artificial reef in history…! ;-)

As long as they keep getting victories like yesterday, who’s to argue?

Good evening to you sri from the Big Sky.

Yep…Ripper showed ‘em, and everbody else, how to do it.

His career never recovered.

I don’t think anyone in the upper levels of our military will take an order from Bush or Cheney to attack. Watch and see if there are any sudden resignations or retirements. That’s when to start worrying.

It’s easy to drum up pro-war sentiments against Iran because Americans are so ignorant about that country and what the consequences would be if we attacked. Same as it was pre-Iraq invasion. I swear to god, last night on the radio (I think it was Sam Seder filling in for Mike Malloy) some wingnut called up in all seriousness and claimed that Iraq had no schools until we went in there and built them. He. Really. Belived. That.

That may be the scariest part of the whole thing – it fucking works!

An uncontested string of fear-based wins is still an uncontested string of wins.

There is also quite a bit of long standing low level hostility from the Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the US embassy, especially among the wingnuts, as well as many other low information folks.

I do think there is a big difference in the corroded neural circuitry of your average CongressFuckl between getting a few blowjobs and some campaign cash from the TelCos and letting FourthBranch start a frikin’ ‘war’ that would deprive the West of most of it’s oil.

But hey!

Everyone says I don’t understand the Magic Man so….

I’ll just STFU! and listen to all the experts here.

Did you watch the Fog Of War?
Sometimes just a few Cool Heads can make a huge difference.
I’m praying too.

I really think the Maliki government’s statement that they won’t accept a Status of Forces Agreement that does not include a timeline for withdrawal may be the match that lights the fuse on Iran. If the US loses the ability to station an Army on Iran’s border, they lose their staging area for the invasion of Iran, except from the East, in Afghanistan.

Well….

Half the folks in the country, according to some polls, don’t realize that one year is one circuit of the earth around the sun.

But….

Even the dumbest of them ‘bitter’ ‘gun-totin’, ‘churchifyin’…not black ones tho, knows what $8.00/gal gas means.

Starvation….

Or at the very least a good low fat diet.

This is absolutely correct. We have been covertly engaged against Iran for 29 years.

However…
there’s some very funny news from the McCain camp.

Yesterday on his bus, asked about his votes on whether insurance companies should be compelled to pay for birth control prescriptions the way they do Viagra, after Fiorina countered his “views,” McCain goes to the zoo!

Where the fuck is my Lieberman?
From Countdown, today.

Afghanistan is also unstable would would likely blow up in their faces if they tried using it for this purpose. Bear in mind that our only real allie in the country is no more than “mayor of Kabul”.

(remember, merchant marines these days are mostly flagged under countries like Panama)

Whoa…what am I missing?

Actually, van Riper was already retired when the MC ‘02 was run-and he walked out in disgust. I have to respectfully disagree with your other statement as well. I think, based on my time in the service, that there are a whole lot of personnel that would push that button without hesitation.

Folks, what we fail to realize is the current Sabre rattling isn’t confined to just the neocons… This Abomination, is a Dem bill wending it’s way through congress…! With 142 sponsors!!!

“Expressing the sense of Congress regarding the threat posed to international peace, stability in the Middle East, and the vital national security interests of the United States by Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and regional hegemony, and for other purposes.”

Everybody from Hoekstra to Harman, Hastings to Waxman… A very troubling sign…!

Standard procedure by shipping companies to avoid costly taxes, regulations, embargoes and the like. It is a major source of income for Panama and Liberia, who do not give a shit what you do or if the ship can even float.

29 years? More like 59 years or so . . .

…Isn’t confined… Oops…!

The Israeli military, which has roughly par equipment with the US military, could not shut down even 5% of Hezbollah’s strategic missile capability after a month of air war, plus a partial ground incursion.

But they’re real good at running over old men in wheelchairs with tanks and American women with bulldozers.

Concur.

Um. yeah, Operation Ajax in ‘53, but I was just going back to the ‘79 revolution.

Are you calling them P*ssies?

Got linkies?

No, punks with guns.

Evenin’, pups -

Totally o/t but this one has the possibility for supplying a few chuckles:

http://blog.locustfork.net/200…..to-resign/

Look how badly bushco screwed the pooch in Iraq. I don’t believe a little thing like losing an aircraft carrier or three or ten dollar a gallon gas would make a difference to them.
We gotta get them terrorists.

Hello Demi!

That too.
I prefer the word I asked you about.
That’s the difference between our genderness. I get to call them that.
:)

Everybody from Hoekstra to Harman, Hastings to Waxman… A very troubling sign…!

Did you see that Wexler backed off his support of that ridiculous piece of garbage?

Shortly after he was here at FDL for a little talk, too. heh.

Iran Resolution Must Change

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…..11663.html

Hey to you too, Loo.

The straits of Hormuz are actually pretty crooked… and could be easily shut down with a few well placed charges. The Persian Gulf is loaded with jellyfish… so thick, if they were sponges, one might actually be able to walk on water, so to speak. Iran has an intimate knowledge of the straits and could, conceievably convert the Persian Gulf to something more resembling the Black Sea. From the Gulf of Oman, it’s just a sprint out to open ocean, but pretty cramped for an entire battlegroup.

Meandering story shortened: Kuwait becomes “beached”, Iraq becomes “beached”.

It’s a long road the the Red Sea, eh?

Losing an aircraft carrier-especially a Nimitz class-cwould also be the ultimate PR tool for a whole new round of military spending hikes, to accelerate production of the new class of carrier currently under construction.

~~There is a form of hypervigilance today that has been created by national-security concerns and warning systems such as the color-coded alerts. When the public is constantly reminded of danger levels, it can create in some individuals, a syndrome of hypervigilance, where they see a terrorist around every corner.~~

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/…..ce816.html

I love this paragraph!

Bushy. He then defeated Mobile County District Attorney John Tyson, Jr. in the 2006 election by a margin of 54-46 percent.”>

Nooo… Not the Shrub class…! ;-)

Unfortunately not. It is one of those factoids I have been aware of for a long time and no longer know where I learned it.

What are you saying? They wouldn’t play us like that, would they?

yes

Are you kidding? Not only would they, they already have.

I put this up earlier but it is apropos here.

David Petaeus was confrimed as CENTCOM commander today 95-2. Neither McCain nor Obama were present to vote. Only Byrd (D-WV) and Harkin (D-IA) voted against. Odierno became head of forces in Iraq on a vote of 96-1 with only Harkin voting against.

You know for a country that is not planning an attack on Iran it is certainly putting the people in place to carry one out. As for the Democrats, they like Obama are showing their true colors. And for any out there who thinks this absolves Clinton, she voted for both Petraeus and Odierno.

I would just like to point out as I have in the past that Israel would almost certainly have to overfly Iraqi airspace to get to Iran, and not just that but it would have to send air tankers there as well to refuel their aircraft coming and going. We control Iraqi airspace. We would be the ones to give them permission, and in doing so we would become active enablers and abettors of their attack. Meaning that we along with the Israelis would become legitimate targets of any Iranian counterattack.

While the Israelis might want to drop a few bombs on the Bushehr heavy water reactor, the centrifuge center at Natanz, and the heavy water plant at Arak, such actions would almost certainly not stop there. If we became involved we would have to begin a mostly aerial campaign that aimed at taking out most of Iran’s military establishment and to do that we would have to destroy most of its physical infrastructure. This is a massive undertaking. We would have to neutralize any Iranian threat in the Gulf, in the Straits, and even outside the Gulf. It is not clear that we have the assets to do this. We could a very dangerous and complicated situation in Iraq because of this. Our situation in western Afghanistan could also become more precarious. The likelihood of another Lebanese-Israeli war would be high. Syria might also become involved. Countries like Kuwait and the KSA could see unrest in their Shia populations and sabotage in their oil fields. In other words most of the Middle East could get caught up in the violence. As Ian has pointed out, this would have a devastating impact on the price of oil and consequently the world economy already reeling from hedge fund driven speculation in oil. And again as Ian points out, the Iranians wouldn’t actually have to physically stop oil transiting the Gulf, just threaten it sufficiently so that no maritime underwriter will insure commercial shipping in the area, effectively doing the same thing. Starting yet another war against a Moslem nation would also cause a backlash in the rest of the Moslem world, doing much to recruit future terrorists against us, radicalizing populatons, and destabilizing further a very unstable country like Pakistan (with its nukes). Price spikes and the threat of terrorism would damage our relations with our traditional allies further and erode our influence in the world even more. And our economy like many others would likely shift from recession to depression.

So this is a really, really bad idea. Any questions?

Big eyes, blinking. Really?
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

At every opportunity for the last 50 years.

How much ya wanna bet that if something like that would happen Russia would supply the Iranians more than they do now? Or perhaps the Chinese. Who could then call in all our paper.

no one thought they would let a city drown but they did

no one thought they would lie us into an unnecessary war but they did

no one thought gas would be over $4/gal but it is.

if they can make money off it – they will do it

Would they sacrifice a ship and crew to justify spending and hype a war? Sure. They’d do it in a second.

Oh, honey. I’m not That Blond.

I know what you mean. Just stuff you know without being able to prove/link it. I totally believe you, just interested because I close on a condo in Panama next month.

I wouldn’t call looking for the boogeyman hypervigilance.

Uh, I believe they’ve already done Wayyyyy more than that.

I’m not one who believes violence is never the solution. Sometimes violence is a solution; sometimes violence is even the best solution.

Ian: I’d like to read a post by you where you expand on these statements. If you have already, would you point me to the link so I can read it?

I’d like a discussion about this. Seems fertile, and very relevant to the times we find ourselves in.

I disagree with your statements, and am willing to write my views, and why I hold them.

so what can we do to stop if from happening? again.

Yes. They have.

I think, based on my time in the service, that there are a whole lot of personnel that would push that button without hesitation.

I coulda gone all day without hearing that…

Hell’s bells. I have no clue.

You obviously have not been paying attention. While there are a lot of very intelligent, dedicated, and sane officers, we have more than our allotted share of the Gen. Jack D. Rippers as well.

Nice job, Hugh…! Btw, IRGC has decentralized control over their forces…

As Pepe pointed out…

General Mohammad Ali Jafari has been the supreme IRGC commander since September 2007. Over a week ago, after a groundbreaking interview to the conservative newspaper Jam e-Jam, he announced a very deep structural IRGC decentralizing shake-up, under the orders of Khamenei himself.

Most key regional commanders were replaced. Jafari had already organized the fusion between the Pasdaran – the military elite – and the Bassij militias.

What this means in practice is that Iran now has 30 armies – one in every province, all of them interconnecting Pasdaran and Bassij, all of them with members of both bodies training together. Esfandiari Safari, writing in the Iranian newspaper Rooz, interprets Jafari’s new set up as “the response from the IRGC’s high command to the imminent attack they are waiting for”.

Up to now, Ahmadinejad and a smatter of top Iranian officials had always played down an US or Israeli attack. It appears that now the IRGC is bracing for an attack while the Ahmadinejad faction keeps playing it down.

The IRGC – branded a “terrorist organization” by the US – had to come up with some kind of message. The US Congress and Senate, amid apathy in US corporate media and public opinion, are about to virtually declare war on Iran, voting for two misleading resolutions – which call for a naval blockade of Iran’s ports – that were basically written by the hardline American Israel Public Affairs Committee Israeli lobby and spoon-fed to politicians in Capitol Hill.

30 separate Armies…!

That’s what I keep thinking.
So many times I have thought, “No, they won’t do that because militarily (or economically, etc.) it would be ruinous.”
And then they go ahead and do it.

We are governed by crazy people. The inmates are running the asylum.

Sorry! We trained for it constantly, and a big part of it at times was not knowing whether it was an exercise or not. It’s conditioning. Follow your orders immediately, without hesitation, and if you give some clue in training that you might be unwilling to do so, you will not be in that shop/office/flight line/silo the next day.

My point exactly… and what Hugh said..

;~P

It’s just designed so that centralized C&C can’t be taken out. They obviously figure their comm networks are at least partially compromised and unlike Hezbollah, who the key figures are in the military is often known.

Since many repubs are trying to distance themselves from Bush I think they might stop any move on Iran. Some of them surely must have sense enough to know that it will be the end of the Republican party for many years.

Defense in Depth is the concept. Check out the history of the battle of Okinawa sometime to see what fighting that really means.

Surely you jest

Hell, it could be the end of the country. Unfortunately, I do not think that will stop them. I do not share your optimism about the degree of sanity in the GOP.

But of course, Riper, himself, gamed it the same way… Riper, utilized motorcycle messengers to relay comms… We would be sooo screwed if we decided to have a repeat ‘Shock and Awe’ performance…! 20 Jan 09 seems to be light years away…

No, I don’t believe that ALL repubs are crazy, greedy, yes. There’s no benefit to them starting another “war”. Just dead people.

I would that this is true, but I wonder. Attacking Iran would split the nation between rally-round-the-flag types and stop-the-war types, while simultaneously disillusioning a lot of young, newly-idealistic (read: Obama) voters, thereby boosting McCain.
I think they believe it would be to their political advantage to attack Iran. If i gets McCain elected, it will be worth it to them.

Not all Republicans are crazy, just all the ones in charge of things.

That’s part of my point – why would it get McC elected? He’d still be a bumbling, old fool and would be cheering the troops to fight harder. Just don’t see it. I try not to be naive and look at things clearly and this makes no sense to me.

thank you dr (no pause) dick

Might improve the fishing in the area, eventually. Have to wait for the oil to degrade, though.

Actually, I’d think that episode would initiate NPSD-51 COG procedures from the economic collapse that would ensue from the shut down of the oil spigot…! Basically, ‘Wag the Dog’ on steroids…!

Why did George the Lesser get elected in 2004?

Don’t say Flori-Duh!

;~P

May I say Ohio?

That was ‘00, Ohio was ‘04…! Sheesh, get it right…! ;-)

I think it would help McCain by depressing the Obama vote and by keeping Obama in the “doesn’t support the troops” box, which no Democratic strategist has yet figured out how to effectively counter.

That 23% can grow exponentially when “patriotism” comes into play.

Dang, ya mean the Repugs’ voting record doesn’t prove it…? ;-)

Thanks, CT

I am trying to squeeze the last eight years into a microcosm of sorts.

2000, 2004

Same shit

Different day

Ah….all this testosterone. I need a bubble bath.
(Love you guys, but, really…bubbles call.)
See ya Suz…Loo, Margot.
Non-violent dreams to all.

That could take a serious hit if gas is $6 or $7 and people can’t afford to eat.

Actually, I think this would be an immensely unpopular war very quickly since there is absolutely no way we could fight it without immediately instituting a universal draft. We cannot adequately staff the two wars we are currently fighting and we have to maintain control in those countries to attack Iran.

g’nite demi

Night demi.

Conservative estimates put it at $10 a gallon…!

I’d expect them to try to take out the net along with it, and probably all the DFH bloggers.
We might try something like telling people what really was happening, and they can’t have people doing that.

Why, they might end up with the South Lawn full of peasants with real pitchforks and torches. [/s]

(((Suzanne)))
[Token!]

I agree. And I have children eligible for the draft.

Peace…Dear Mountain Doctor.

It’s all in the timing

October

Any earlier might be a problem

Just my $.02

’bout a drop of gas

Ah, demi, there’s usually a great abundance of estrogen, and I don’t bail…! Aloha! ;-)

I think this would be an immensely unpopular war very quickly since there is absolutely no way we could fight it without immediately instituting a universal draft. We cannot adequately staff the two wars we are currently fighting and we have to maintain control in those countries to attack Iran.

See, there ya go again – complicating a perfectly good future war with pesky little details!

Fortunately mine is just about too old. If McCrazy gets in I might worry about my grandsons, however.

That’s why it would rev up the young voters. There’s nothing like self-interest to get you to the voting booth. I truly believe that we would have mass demonstrations and such if this happened.

Too true…though, I’m working these days. Gotta get my beauty rest.
(all the girls love CT!)

G’night, demi!

Dugg

Having said that, I still do not think it would stop the Bushies if they are determined to do this. Facts, realities, sanity have no meaning or bearing with these people.

I’m trying to push them both. Working…

crap, i forgot about the digg – thanks for the reminder and dugg

Yes, you have to have a secure comms network, and if you can’t do it with a private fiber optic network or some such, well, physical couriers are slow, but they can’t be taken out by e-lint.

I fear for my grandchildren. Not yet here, but a mother can hope…

ian, do you think this has anything to do with those communication cables being cut a while back?

yes. I’ve been back and forth and all over the place re: The Draft. And, had plenty of discussions with my classmates (class of ‘69). The only thing I know for sure is that if there were a draft, and had been in the last 10 years, my college age students would be paying more attention to politics, and not hassling me so much for an A- vs. a B+.

What I feel they may try at some point, is taking the legal theory that supports corralling dissenters in “Free Speech Zones” and applying it to the media and the Web-putting all critical voices on certain channels, websites, or time blocks. That way we still supposedly have “Free Speech.”

There’s the rub

Bass Dude Dog!
(Hubby joined a band! He’s out practicin’)
Really…now,I’m doing the bubbles.
But, Guys, I’m not THAT anti- guns and testosterone.
The boys were playing air guns and watching “24″ last night for about 4 hours in the living room.
See?

BTW did folks see this? The government is considering taking over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae:

Under a conservatorship, the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee — which could be staggering — would be paid by taxpayers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07…..ref=slogin

I think the real WMD is Bushonomics.

Mine are 10 and 12, well within the range of a McCrazy presidency.

It might, but I don’t know. Don’t know enough to judge.

A draft of our young people scares me more than anything – and I think McC would do it even without another “war” to fight. He seems to think that everyone should go through what he did. Sadistic little twit.

just put it in the news box, hugh

Condolences

We cannot adequately staff the two wars we are currently fighting …

We’re fighting two “wars?” I thought we invaded and are currently occupying two countries.

On another topic: Obama/Dodd 08?
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/n…..n_dodd.php

Yup. Focuses the mind intensely, as I discovered when I received my draft notice in ‘71.

Hubby out practicing? Best time in the world for a hot bath.
{{{Demi}}}

I’ve read what I believe to be credible accounts that Cheney had to be talked down off the ledge of attacking Iran *last* year, by a group of generals, so I’m afraid that I have to agree with you.

Not a comforting thought, what with having a kid in Basic Training right now…

This may be an awful thing to say, but if Darth’s ticker were to give out tomorrow, the country would be a safer place.

Sorry – but I think it’s true – and understand if this comment gets yanked.

Ask someone who’s a wingnut if we should attack Iran. The ones I know want to get their war on in Iran, who they see as a threat. Gas prices? Pfft. We’re America, we can handle it. Not enough military? Please, we fought WW2, we can do anything.
How are we going to pay for this? A wave of the hand, like ‘go away you tiresome woman, money is no object.’
They seem to get real upset when I say anyone who voted for Bush should have their children or grandchildren drafted and sent right to war, any war. They hate that. Why? Their votes sent other peoples’ kids to war. Take responsibility for your vote, I say. They say shut up, la la la la…

Yes, very.
We have to elect BO, and that’s that. I can’t say anything else.

ding!

Dude! They are 14 and 20.
What can I do?
To every season there is a purpose.
But, I’ll draw the line at The Draft.

Might change their minds if their kids had to go.

Yep, and we continue fighting to hold on to those two countries we invaded. Delusional statements by senior members of the (mal)administration and corporate media aside, we do not and never have fully controlled either of those countries. The invasion, in effect, continues.

anyone who voted for Bush should have their children or grandchildren drafted and sent right to war, any war. They hate that. Why? Their votes sent other peoples’ kids to war. Take responsibility for your vote, I say.

EXACTLY!!!!!
It’s a question every one of them should have to answer.

If the Bushies planned it we wouldn’t be able to control Rhode Island.

Okay, when I’m rich and famous, I’m having a water-proof laptop with voice recognition installed right next to the bathtub. That’ll do it.

Good, as the article points out between them they hold or back some $5 trillion in mortgages, half the US market, and if they aren’t moving mortgages, the US housing market pretty much stops.

At this point, I would like to thank all those whiz kids at hedge funds and investments banks, and the dolts in the Administration and the Congress who should have seen this coming back in 2003 and definitely by 2004 and still haven’t done jack to seriously address the mess they created.

*blush* You’re too kind! Aloha!

“HAL, please log me on to Firedoglake.”
“Yes, Dave…I mean, Demi…”

Actually, I,m not sure they could control Two Dot, MT.

If the Bushies planned it we they wouldn’t be able to control *find* Rhode Island.

and don’t anybody dare tell ‘em!

Yes, we do.

No shit. I’ve had huge discussions with good friends from the class of ‘69 about the draft. Course, they and I remember what it was like the eve the b’day lottery was done. Discussions pro and con, as to if it should be in place now. I don’t want to send anyone to war. But, as my best friend said, well, it would force the draft-age generation to pay more attention to what our Nation does.

Evening waccamaw.
Alabama politics is endlessly entertaining.

That was the point… As a Commo Chief, I’d signed for several motorcycles, course we never needed it, it was a great outlet tho, many of my troops have enjoyed ‘em, err… checked ‘em out for operability…! ;-)

Ian, you seem to be giving Bush/Cheney too much credit, in that you’ve completely left out the possibility that we’d use nukes.

I don’t want to send anyone to war. But, as my best friend said, well, it would force the draft-age generation to pay more attention to what our Nation does.

It will certainly spark their parents to jump back into the public square. Civics, restored.

Actually I think that if we are going to war, then we should have a draft. In a democracy the burden should be shared by everyone and not born solely by the poor who comprise the bulk of our volunteer military. It would also make people pay more attention and think harder about deciding to go to war.

Hi, Sunny -

Howya been keepin’?

*crickets*?

Anybody want to form an online non-violence study/support group? Or is it too passe these days?

Email me at oregondave AT hevanet DOT com.

In the meantime, goodnight . . . I’m off to slumber.

Gotta say g’nite. Have to go snap, crackle, and pop for the chiro tomorrow. I have enjoyed the discussion and the post was excellent. Now I will have nightmares.

g’nite twain

Night ODave and Twain.

Heh. Well, I don’t think tac nukes change the equation too much, except that they make the US a pariah nation. I mean, seriously, Americans do not understand. I think half the world would permanetly pull their embassies if you used tac nukes.

Full on nukes, otoh…

goodnight, Twain and Oregondave. The US Air Force is watching over you.

Pleasant dreams.

nite o’dave, twain

Full nukes would probably drawn in Russia and China who already have close ties to Iran. That could get very ugly very quickly. Can you say Armageddon?

Thanks, All.

When Chimpy acknowledged that the US was the biggest polluter in his goodbyes, he wasn’t messing around.

crap, sorry i missed this

g’nite oregondave

ah, interesting collateral point.

At the time, my mother was totally against the war. My dad wouldn’t speak to me at the graduation ceremony after he saw that I was wearing a white arm band of protest. Can’t remember what the lastest outrage was- Gulf of Tonkin, maybe?

And, I do wonder if my dad would have reacted differently if I had been a draft-able boy child, rather than a non-draft-able girl child.

And, btw, I had strong feelings around that time that if females had been subject to the draft, the war would have ended sooner. I never liked the idea, at all that only my male classmates were the ones who were subject to the draft. I thought both sexes/ genders should be given the same shake, for better or worse.

He actually seemed rather smug and quite pleased with himself.

Oregondave, it is not passe, but, it’s ignored by this Maladministration and the complicit Democratic Congress…! It’s gonna take monumental shifts to bring it to the table…! 8-(

We all have our defaults.

This was so humiliating…

If Dubya wasn’t already his middle name, then Smug would be very apt.

They ‘answered’ it by demanding how long members of my family had served in the military, asking if my sons would serve and they sent hateful email messages along the lines of “How dare you threaten my kids, you low-class liberal you.”
They don’t want to pay taxes, they want anyone else’s kids to fight, but they want their Iran war. Fuck’em.

Using strategic nukes on Iran would be a crime against humanity of unprecedented proportions, as well as,that close to the Russian border? Fallout on Russian territory? They would be drawn in immediately.

Hey LL! How ya doin’? Long time no see.

Hi, LL!

Yep.

Hey DrD — doin’ fine, thanks, just back from a quick trip out of town to see family. How are you doing out in Big Sky country?

Hey RonD!

The most embarrassing…

I cannot imagine how the USA could be more embarrassed.

Unless his handlers let him out again…

can we please keep in isolated at the wh until indicted, inpeached or termed out?

Doing grand. The rivers are finally down to the point where they are fishable. I’m going to give them a shot tomorrow morning. Weather has been pretty nice, though warmer than usual, and I have been doing a lot of hiking.

Hi LL, Chris, everyone!

that shoulda been keep HIM isolated

Huh? No intiendo.

I cannot imagine how the USA could be more embarrassed.

Unless his handlers let him out again…

Isn’t about time for some desperately needed brush clearing at the pig-farm ranch? For, I dunno, two or three months?

Hey, Margot!

fyi.. in case anyone was thinking of leaving before my late late nite posts.. let me just say that i have some news for ya when it posts

Heh. Well, I don’t think tac nukes change the equation too much, except that they make the US a pariah nation. I mean, seriously, Americans do not understand. I think half the world would permanetly pull their embassies if you used tac nukes.

Full on nukes, otoh…

I think they may very well use tactical nukes, and I don’t think they’ve really thought it through, other than saying, “After they see our nukes, they’ll drop to their knees and worship us.”

Too late, his affliction has already spread to our Leader … the Europeans must be wondering what’s in North America’s water …

Evenin’ all !

In this, he will take after 41 – when the attack begins, he will likely be in a speedboat off Kennebunkport.

If the think Putin will sit idly by while they bomb Iran, they’ve got another “think” coming …

*hanging around for Suz and LLN, and waving to Margot*

pins and needles!!

Dr. Dick, to reprise a bit from my comment above, should such a draft include xx’s as well as xy’s? That would be my view.

Here’s an ‘06 analysis…

In the event that American air strikes become unbearable, the Iranian national security apparatus is prepared to launch a strategic ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead: accordingly, as part of the 2006 naval war game, Iran conducted a practice of national command and control procedures for the launch of a nuclear warhead. The range of the Iranian ballistic missile is up to 1200 miles, which puts Jerusalem in range.

Iran’s war games plan looks to be on schedule and well suited to the paralysis of the Europeans and the U.N. Security Council. Stare at burning Haifa and Beirut and (eventually) Damascus and know that Iran is on the march. The Teheran regime is supremely confident. It believes that Allah has prepared its victory over the American demon it calls “World Arrogance.” It believes that the ruin that follows this conflict will prepare the entry of the Twelfth (Invisible) Imam and the delivery of the faithful to Paradise. The Tehran regime believes unshakably in what it calls the “Day of Judgment.”

The 12th Imam rhetoric has been used by Ahminejad, recently too…!

Your house sold?!?

Maybe he’ll check back…

The violence/non-violence debate is always a tough one for me, so always on the lookout for new insight.

I believe that we can end or greatly reduce terrorism and strife in the world be “killing them with kindness.” 60 Minutes did a story a couple of years ago about NYC firefighters going to Afghanistan to help with earthquake recovery. These were firefighters and paramedics that responded to the WTC collapse, and they were out saving the lives in small villages that were suspected Taliban strongholds. Lots of suspicion by both sides when they showed up.

Of course, by the time they left, it they were hugging an crying together. This is how we end terrorism. Fund these kind of activities around the world, and locals everywhere will be telling any America-haters to take a hike and possibly more.

Now this would require very little money compared to massive military operations, and this is where the problem lies IMO. Little money to be made for those invested in the Death Loving Industry, or Military-Industrial Complex.

At the same time, if someone threatens my wife or kids, I’ll resort to as much violence as necessary to protect them. Never quite sure how to balance those feelings…

sorry, loohoo, i was trying to say can we just keep him isolated at the white house until he is either indicted, impeached, or his term expires in january

i don’t want him out in public any more

Correction: If they think …

He needs to just disappear, for sure. I’m embarrassed to watch the poor guy. Imagine looking at war crimes…

Might you be talking about the Rich Rethuglians… shit that is just SOP for them. They could care less about any one else but their own… pay taxes why? They want all their money ripped off the backs of the working middle class! Medical… they can afford the very best… let the little people pay for all the research so long as when they need it they can get it… it goes on and on about these asswipes… they are completely without a conscience!

WARNING: Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency may have read this email without warning, warrant, or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legislative oversight. You have no recourse nor protection save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.

Since you’re hanging … fancy a Leffe ? *g*

I don’t think they’ve really thought it through

I doubt they have done any “thinking” at all. It is a much more reflexive and visceral process entirely.

Heh, you Canuck’s are being accused too, eh? Aloha, Petro!

i don’t want him out in public any more

The closer McCain hues towards Chimpy, the more I want him out there, fucking up.

Or playing golf. ;-)

Oh Boy can’t wait!!!

WARNING: Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency may have read this email without warning, warrant, or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legislative oversight. You have no recourse nor protection save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.

Gotcha. !

Dam I have two in the fridge but doc says NO…shit no more good beer or Ale.

WARNING: Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency may have read this email without warning, warrant, or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legislative oversight. You have no recourse nor protection save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.

Yes please! *g*

Harper is a bigger embarrassment than any Canuck in modern history …

How’s life in paradise, CT ?

I agree. As much as I oppose war and sending people off to kill and die, if we are going to do it then everyone should share the burden equally. I also think that the current conflict has fully demonstrated that there is no sane reason to keep women out of combat units and positions (something the Israelis have always known).

Dayam, now we have to start posting the warning, eh…? Damned Shrub…!

The neocons are willing to sacrifice the fifth fleet, per Michael E. Salla, M.A., Ph.D.:

The Bush administration has covered up and ignored dissenting Pentagon war games analysis that suggests an attack on Iran’s nuclear or military facilities will lead directly to the annihilation of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet now stationed in the Persian Gulf. Lt. General Paul Van Riper led a hypothetical Persian Gulf state in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war games that resulted in the destruction of the Fifth Fleet. His experience and conclusions regarding the vulnerability of the Fifth Fleet to an asymmetrical military conflict and the implications for a war against Iran have been ignored. Neoconservatives within the Bush administration are currently aggressively promoting a range of military actions against Iran that will culminate in it attacking the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet with sophisticated cruise anti-ship missiles. They are ignoring Van Riper’s experiences in the Millennium Challenge and how it applies to the current nuclear conflict with Iran.

[…]

Do I believe it? Can’t tell. I’m told that the Iranian antiship missles are based on the Chinese Silkworm, which is a dated cruise missle — think pilotless kamakazi. U.S. carrier taskforces have most impressive defenses against cruise missles. But, cruise missles are cheap, and enough of them can overwhelm almost any defense.

But, why count on it? What does the U.S. have to gain in this? We have no indication that the Iranians will stop selling oil on the world market, unless we destroy their ability to do so and/or the force them to try to teach us a lesson. What’s in this crisis for us?

Um … what did he say about you having bad Ale or Beer ? *g*

Madame Pele has been especially active, some awesome flows…! ;-0

Isn’t the NDP calling for his head on a platter next year? I”ve heard that they won’t call an election this year. But that doesn’t mean they won’t call one at the start of next year. *grin* (and i’m thinking they will.)

A few advantages to the westminster system, there.

Yep… can’t have my friwends getting to eeeenn ssaasaa aaaa trouble All electronic communication from now on will have that disclaimer at the bottom… get used to IT!

WARNING: Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency may have read this email without warning, warrant, or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legislative oversight. You have no recourse nor protection save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.

Wigwam, that was Riper’s finest moment, and, Yes, believe it…!

What’s in this crisis for us?

Don’t know, but for them – planetary infamy. They don’t seem to mind so far.

I’m embarrassed to watch the poor guy.

I’m embarassed whenever I’m forced to watch the guy too. *by* him, not *for* him.

Imagine looking at war crimes…

well, since it’s GWB we’re talking about, I’m quite happy to imagine him looking at war crimes.

In other words, he gets no sympathy from me – he’s a narcissistic, unintelligent sociopath – and I’ll not waste anytime feeling bad for him.

Most recently, did you see the smirk on his face as the protesters at Monticello were hauled away? This guy loves – himself, and no one – not anyone – else.

War with Iran is not open to question or criticism.

World domination requires this war.

It shall be done.

No no just have liver issues and have not had a beer since last August… for that matter none of the other vice I did so enjoy…

WARNING: Due to Presidential Executive Orders, WITH CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL, the National Security Agency may have read this email without warning, warrant, or notice. They may do this without any judicial or legislative oversight. You have no recourse nor protection save to call for the impeachment of the current President, 69 members of the Senate and 293 members of the House of Representatives.

See? Smug.

Actually, the conventional war would be the least of our problems. If we attack Iran, they will unleash a veritable hell of guerrilla and terrorist attacks on a global scale. They already have the infrastructure and training in place and have previously promised to do so.

I saw that on teh News … have you bought any of that soon to be “Prime Real Estate” yet ?

Aloha, LL, I didn’t see ya slip in…! How’s Virginny?

I thought I’d let it cool down first…! ;-)

I’m good and nights are coolish.

late late nite upstairs

Aloha CT! All is well here, hot and muggy, but that’s typical *g*

The NDP and Liberals are dysfunctional, they should be hammering Harper on his environmental record and toppling his Gov’t. Either that or bribe him with a thousand Big Macs … could work …

Sorry to hear that and hope that you recover soon !

ty. Come hell or highwater (uh, not that we aren’t already there) we’re all in it together. No reason to leave out +50% of the US population.

Do you believe it? How can you not question anything and everything Bushco has done?

I’m pretty sure they’ll get their act together a helluva lot better than our Congress will. They’re a lot better at cutting deals between them, liek actual DEALS compared to caving in and showing bellies. Whatever bickering now, i’m hoping is just marking time.

And, as you no doubt know, once upon a time, Iran had a democracy. We, the worldwide champions of freedom and democracy, overthrew that government and imposed upon the people of Iran, The FUCKING EMPEROR OF THE FUCKING PEACOCK FUCKING THRONE!!!!!

The NDP and Liberals were in talks to unite as one party but they can’t agree on how far left to take their platform. Both parties should get new leaders, Layton & Dion aren’t worthy of the title of Dogcatcher … truly pathetic …

Yep. And overthrew a democratically elected government in Iraq to install Sadam. And they wonder why we are so popular in those parts.

No. Didn’t see it? Got a link? I did manage to get my air sickness bag handy.

ah, yes! And, wigwam, that is worth a post when you get your blog up and running! ;)

uh, I’m sure there are other examples, too….

Too many to count, though I do a brief rendition of our military and covert “interventions” since 1950 in my culture and identity class when we cover colonialism. Do not want them to think, like the idiots at NRO, that it is a thing of the past.

I’m off to bed now. Enjoy the party upstairs.

‘night, Dr. Dick.

Don’t know if this info has been posted earlier, getting here late and a friend just emailed me this …. FWIW:

New York Newsday and the Seattle-Post Intelligencer warn that Congress is considering a resolution promoted by AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) that would effectively endorse a naval blockade of Iran, an act of war.

Voices in the U.S. calling for real diplomacy and negotiations with Iran are being silenced. Few people in this country know Iran has an offer on the table for comprehensive negotiations with the United States that could resolve the nuclear stand-off and other issues. Nor do they know that talks with Iran without preconditions are supported by independent experts like Thomas Pickering, the U.S. Ambassador to the UN during the first Bush administration. http://youtube.com/watch?v=kGZFrFxVg8A

To counter the renewed threats of military action, calling for National Days of Coordinated Action against war with Iran on July 19-21, including: call-ins and letter-writing to Washington and local congressional offices; lobbying in Washington and at local congressional offices;

Look at how much $$$ our Dem Senators got from the telcos..
Our best Senator DIFI gotare you ready for this..

$2,194,058

And to think Jello-Jay dons his kneepads for a paltry $900,000…

I wonder does he use a lubricant???

$900,000 – plenty slippery.

Ron, you make it sound like there would be a ground effort?

All I know, and have read, is that a ground effort is IMPOSSIBLE, as we are stretched too thin.

Any Iranian ‘attack’ will come from the air and from the Navy.

And as has been WELL docmunented by many a knowing analyst from the military to the scholastic front, that Iran will be lighting up the Navy in the Straits, raining down on Isreal, and EASILY choking our supply lines from Kuwait into Iraq, not to mention the SHIA outrage and MUSLIM outrage which will UNITE Shia and Sunni world wide, into attacking USA EVERYWHERE we are in the world . . . if we fire ONE missle at them, we are screwed.

Do you discount Mullen’s recent comments? Fallon’s continued dismissal of any attack? Jim Lobe’s assessments?

Not even Crazy Cheney can muddle thru this mess to get this done.

Sure, the Christianized Right Wing USAF might go along, but I’d think they could be stopped by the rest of our Joint Chiefs, armed forces, etc.

We’re talking a COUP would have to take place to launch an attack against Iran, at this point. A coup against our OWN military!!!

A MAJOR coup, and shutdown of our government.

Not. Gonna. Happen. None. Of. That.

Nope, IMNSHO this is pure GOP sabre rattling, trying to prop up McCain.

And he’s so fucked up day to day, it don’t matter WHAT props they give him, all he’s getting is the same whackaloon 27% the GOP always gets. And Obama is screwing up MIGHTILY by caving into the middle which is really right of Genghis Khan and Atilla The Hun . . . he keeps it up and he WILL lost the election.

But even with McCain, the same stuff comes to play. The planet comes to a halt if we do Iran. And Big Brother don’t WANT that . . . Big Oil might want higher prices for war, but Big Brother don’t want the entire planet ground down to a halt . . . cuz then the people hit the streets . . . no food, no energy, no transportation, no jobs, yadda yadda yadda . . .

Harumph.

Great read, thanks RonD . . . I guess we agree on the outcomes, no matter WHAT happens to start it . . . and I know we BOTH wish it does not happen.

I’m confident, it won’t . . . have NOT felt confident, for a LONG time, but now, I think we are ok. And there are certainly OTHER issues to worry about, at home and abroad, as well . . .

Here’s hoping . . . best to all . . .

Yep, checking back in this morning.

I have found Marshall B. Rosenberg’s work in what he calls Non-Violent Communication useful. He makes the distinction between violence and force. He calls the circumstance that you cite the “protective use of force.”

Odd. I just checked back myself, and your comment came in within a few seconds of me being here. Cosmic.

Thanks for that. Looks quite helpful. That’s a concept I’ve been feeling for a while about this, and that’s a good phrase for it.

Seems like a bit of a semantic game, since force can definately be violence, but maybe I should just read the book before drawing conclusions. Thanks again.