Well, in DC it is pouring, not for the first time this month, but far from a 500 year event and not the flooding Iowa/the Midwest is suffering through.

It’s hot here in Vernal, UT right now.

Damn you Al Gore!

Good post. The answer to those who say the scientists are wrong about the warming is “what if they’re not?” If we wait to find out it will be too late.

Oh the horror, you linked to the AP……..

On Kirk Murphy’s thread Saturday night, we were discussing using the term “Global Climate change” in lieu of “Global Warming.”

Global Climate Change makes the point that even the low info or deniers HAVE to admit to: the storms/floods/tornadoes/hurricanes/blizzards/’droughts and everything weather related are becoming more and more intense and the extremes are happening more and more frequently.

It is all his fault, isn’t it, due to all that hot air about all that science stuff … if he only hadn’t given 3000+ presentations, there wouldn’t be any of this Global Warming stuff to worry about … Who ever told Gore about Powerpoint and other presentation programs is responsible for all this bad weather!

I like the wingers pointing to a cold snap as some sort of snarky proof that global warming is a hoax. I simply read aloud the daily obituaries to prove we do not have population growth.

Yes, tornado lookouts for the second time in week here in VT. First of this kind of weather I’ve seen in 25 years of living here.

How’s the new weather working out for everyone else?

You’re right, the horror. I quoted/linked to someone who had the audacity to create and link to AP about a story.

Now, considering what AP has done, I wonder what they’ll do when bloggers start to send them letters on legal stationary about articles that crib from bloggers’ posts without any form of credit?

I’ve never heard of tornados in VT. Has this happened in the past?

Sorry, I forgot the /s.

Lol.

Actually, my ‘favorite’ is that the same people / deniers who will write passionately about a cold snap in some part of the United States will, if there is a heat spell, start making long arguments about the inaccuracies and problems of the weather stations. They are perfectly accurate when convenient and disastrously messed up measuring devices when they provide a good talking point.

And, of course, let’s have the comments about a cold May (which it was in the US) without mentioning that, globally, the month was in the top 15 in the record books.

Excellent post, thanks. Also, thanks for the links.

Vermont is also noticing a dramatically shorter season for harvesting maple syrup. I guess the trees are migrating toward Canada.

“Climate Change” and “Global Climate Change” can sometimes be good terms but I have a hard time getting past that “climate change” originated with Frank Luntz as part of his framing efforts to undermine the public understanding of Global Warming and its implications. “Climate Change” made it easier, via focus group analysis, to make the argument that ‘change is normal’ as part of the confusion-fostering efforts on behalf of the serial polluters.

I seem to recall hearing about the very rare weak tornado - the kind of thing that confirms the topic of this post, one in a hundred years or more. So second warning in a week seems notable.

Maple syrup production is definitely moving northwards and will be centered in Canada in too short a time period (when production used to be centered south of Vermont).

I hope everyone is thinking ahead to the water crisis.

We had one go by a mile from where I am sitting, in Vancouver Washington, in March.
Snow in May and June, I have had the heater on every night lately, it has been a very strange year weather wise around here.

Vermont is also noticing a dramatically shorter season for harvesting maple syrup. I guess the trees are migrating toward Canada

.

Yes, you want spring days warming up above freezing but chilly nights below - and the weather has gotten increasingly unpredictable, cold snaps warm ups wild and woolly.

Hi AS,
thank you for this linkalicious post.

To clarify: I know that the midwest is having one kind of water crisis, but i fear that most of us will, in the not too distant future, have a clean drinking water crisis. In south CA we’re already getting warnings to cut back on watering lawns, etc. Imagine Phoenix and Las Vegas (and the multi-golf courses in Palm Springs area) when reservoirs and wells run dry. Hope I’m just being an alarmist!

We had one go by a mile from where I am sitting, in Vancouver Washington, in March.
Snow in May and June, I have had the heater on every night lately, it has been a very strange year weather wise around here.

Vancouver, nice. Always wanted to travel there.

We’ve been chilly too. I’ve been wearing a parka out at night and in the morning - and hat too - til about a week ago. Then a stretch of 95 degrees. Now back to sweater weather - which I prefer.

digg

Maybe we’ve got an opportunity to twist their focus group approved wording around to our benefit then.

I’ve used it often here in South Texas to show people the extremes, whether it’s the freezing temps on Easter last year or the drought/record rainfall/drought we’ve seen the last couple of years down here.

It gets people’s attention as they do recognize that something has happened but the Global Warming phrasing has been mocked so much that folks don’t want to hear it. It’s unfortuante but it is a reality.

I think we’re all going to be learning a lot more respect for mother nature.

Senator Inhofe R-Oil & Gas, has taken a Quixotic stand against world Scientists and his local Oklahoma farmers, who are no-nonsense, salt of the earth types. The farmers know something is wrong, and are irritated at Inhofe’s purchased blindness to this issue.

His challenger, Andrew Rice, doesn’t even really have to mention it on the campaign trail. Farmers, ranchers, hunters and fishermen know Inhofe is off the reservation on this issue.

If Rice unseats Inhofe in Oklahoma, it will be a bell weather event.

Just a point of information… I didn’t know this but my geologist daughter pointed it out to me just last night.

The 100-year flood is more accurately referred to as the 1% flood, since it is a flood that has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any single year.

A day is wasted if you don’t learn something new…….

Peace out.

And, a link that I should have included (that emerged after I wrote this): Treehugger’s 5 reasons floods not called global warming, which lays out five potential reasons why environmental groups aren’t speaking up. It is a nice piece but misses, I think, the ‘fear’ factor, the caution driven by painful experience under the gun of the deniers/sceptics looking for any/all reasons to cry foul.

Yes, am aware of that point. The issue is that, due to Global Warming, our past data is lowering in relevancy in trying to do the acturial tables as to likely weather events. (And, let us not forget, there are things like paving over flood plains, etc that also contribute to changed risk patterns … it is not single-point cause/effect.)

I’m guessing the reason why the wingers of our country refuse to believe that global warming is real or the effects we are seeing today are caused by something else and not global warming, is because the wingers don’t want liberals to be right…once again.

We’re right all the time. The wingers are tired of it.

Since 1965, Colorado has had a 500 year flood about once every 10 to 20 years. Some were massive, one was local, but all were way beyond the FEMA flood hazard prediction.

Oh, dear A Siegel, I was just throwing out some info that I just learned. I’d never looked at it that way and I thought maybe other readers might not have either. No critique on your post or ideas. I agree fully that climate change is upon us and it has every possibility of creating total, unequivocal, unmitigated chaos.

Okay, I won’t assert that I’m “always” right or that “we” are, but there does seem to be a strong correlating pattern between being willing to live in reality / reality-based policy-making and being correct/accurate.

Please don’t worry, don’t take me as perturbed/upset. I appreciated having the point added and was probably one that would have made sense to have mentioned in the post.

Colorado hasn’t been inhabited by western civilization for much more than a century, nor has much of the West. Calling something a 500-year event is at best a guess, and at worst hyperbole. It’s best to keep that in mind when discussing floods or any other weather phenomena.

Inhofe … Sigh, may we be talking of ex-Senator Inhofe by this time next year (actually, as of early January). That would be a gift to humanity. (And, there is a reason why Rice is in the ActBlue Energy Smart list!)

Having spent the last couple weeks calamine pink,I’d like to add this link
Climate Change May Sprout More Hardy, Potent Poison Ivy

Climate changes might be making poison ivy more hardy and potent, plant experts said.

NewsCenter 5’s David Brown reported that new studies suggest that poison ivy is growing faster and producing more potent oil. Many specialists feel that the climate resulting from global warming will offer better growing conditions that produce stronger ivy.

What I hope Obama asks in some future debate: “How many American cities are we willing to lose before we concede the reality of global warming?”

I agree that no one event can be attributed to global warming. But the rate at which events pile up certainly can be.

Poison ivy is the worst, Elliott! Sorry you’ve been suffering. :-(

“Hyperbole” is not an appropriate term to use. In short, the 10/50/100/500 year “events” is an attempt by scientists to be able to describe, based on best understanding of historical record, what one might expect as to weather conditions and their impacts. These can be impacted many ways; from global warming to paving over flood plains that would moderate impacts of heavy rains. These changes are combining to change the very nature of the weather and its impacts, which seems to be making the historical record less powerful for predicting future events.

Sitting atop the golden buckle on the corn belt, I am not persuaded this event was a consequence of global warming. But, I would agree that in the near future we will be seeing some extraordinary weather events that will be due,in part, to global warming.

Grain stocks are low. This year’s crop is going to be short. In our wisdom we are diverting upwards of 30% of our corn to ethanol. Look for $10/bu corn - 5 times the price 2 years ago.

This will lead to more consumer pain in the grocery stores in our country and desperate conditions in the Third World.

Problem is that McCain / campaign is greenwashing McSame McCain re Global Warming.

thanks Kay, I had one blister that was bigger than any wart you’ve ever seen on a witches nose!

In the light of being careful, I will not / cannot say that these floods “are the consequence” of Global Warming. However … However, severe weather events like these floods (and their increasing number / severity) are in line with what the modeling/science says would come with Global Warming.

It is nearly impossible to understand something when you are paid not to. The right-wing has an entire think-tank hierography peopled by the spawn from the captains of industry to lobby corporate positions must be adhered to or baby Jebus will cry.

The million-decible right-wing wurlitzer picks up these memes and the built-in bulwark is absolute, rigid, and given cred in the Corporate media as “serious”.

I have absolutely no problem claiming “the other side” are just a bunch of whores willing to sell-out their children’s future for thirty pieces of silver today.

“Hyperbole” is not an appropriate term to use.

That depends who’s using the term and why.

As you say, though, at best these are estimates, often based on spotty records and archeology. While it may be true that things are changing there, I don’t see how that blaming this on any particular cause is merited. There are any number of things affecting flood levels, including earlier efforts at flood control.

Carolyn - we’ve got the same issues here in Upstate New York. When I was a kid, we never had tornadoes. The occasional blow back from a coastal hurricane and a whole lotta snow and cold in the winter. But never tornadoes. NOW, in my area, we get tornado watches every summer and outbreaks every couple of years. Things ARE changing.

Worldwide, May was hot. The US was cold. Joe Romm has an excellent post up on this: Great Ice Age of 2008 is Still Over.

A Siegel, thanks for this post and your incisive comments.

WRT to knowledge of pre-European weatehr/climate patterns:

Though Europeans (first from Spain, later from the US) have only been in the inland western US for a few centuries, much of the work done tracing climate patterns and hydrology in the Rockies/Western US has releid upon non-human recrds: pollen, tree rings, and soils/”rocks” reflecting patterns of heat, precipitation, and water flwo. The data tracing the patterns of climate’s effects are quite robust in the absence of human records.

As discussed in the post…. sadly, the data do confirm the increasing frequency of severe weather events that were once far less frequent.

Thanks again for this post, A Siegel.

Good gawd it was huge! ;-)

Well, if it makes you feel better…one night a long time ago my ex and I got in an argument. He left my house (he was very ‘tipsy’) to walk home and ended up passing out near the side of the road in a huge poison ivy patch. The next morning he called to make up and then said, “Can you come over and help me with this crap?” (referring to the poison ivy ALL OVER HIS BODY). I said, “Nope. Going out with friends today!”.

cbl has a prescient video over at her blog windcatpond,
scroll down to Friday the 13th for the entry
“No One Could Have Anticipated . . . “

What did I write?

Yes. YES!! There are other contributory elements from poor river management to building in flood zones to … But Global Warming modeling suggests ever increasing severe weather events, with large amounts of rain falling in short periods of time (while, of course, other areas go through droughts). The very sort of weather patterns that can contribute to major floods.

I cannot say that this is “just” due to Global Warming or even that GW is a primary driver of Iowa’s flooding, but that what is happening in Iowa directly correlates/meets what GW science/modeling says would be happening in terms of weather patterns/events. Did I write that GW caused the floods? Did I advocate that anyone write that? This thread of comments is a perfect example, even within the FDL world, of the care that is driven to extreme in these discussions.

Of course, the upside to using the term “Climate Change” is that it is the term chosen by the Nobel Peace Prize winning scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

That carries more weight with me than Frank Luntz.

omg! he sure paid for that little bender.

A Siegel, do you think satellites are also reflecting back light to our planet and it’s also causing some of the warming? I’ve often wondered if they could have an effect.

Bunch of reasons driving deniers/skeptics. Direct financial interests is only one element. Posted at FDL back in April a tentative typology of skeptics’ motivations.

Yes he did! LOL Karma is a bitch some days. ;-)

In short … no … microscopic, if at all.

One of the things I can say is that when I was growing up, farmers here in Upstate New York got three good hay cuttings, with the first one in early June. There was enough rain, and evenly spaced out, so that they could get two more cuttings … three if they got lucky. NOW, with the changes in moisture patterns, they are lucky to get two..and they need to get the first one in May because the moisture plays out by July. We used to raise sheep and I can tell you that one of the reasons we gave up was that without rain, our pastures were done by late July(and that was with our rotating the animals frequently)and so we had to start feeding hay. When we first got started fifteen years ago, we would not have to start feeding hay before late fall. So, it’s not only that we have more frequent extreme weather events, the whole climate patterns have changed.

Okay. Thanks for your answer.

Quite roughly, you would think that farm communities would be those least ready to accept Global Warming denialism. To do so would mean rejecting their lying eyes …

Yeah, I’ve noticed that we’re only getting two cuttings of hay per summer too. And slim cuttings at that.

Thanks, I’ll read that in a bit, I am slaving away on an electrical problem on a Ford L9ooo.

I can’t even look at plate of spaghetti anymore, reminds me too much of nightmare wiring.

what are we gonna do when food costs more to deliver then a mans paycheck?

I don’t only mean the cost of fuel, I am also talking about weather destroying crops, fish and livestock

we are in tons of trouble

in that very vain, this is frightening over at think progress;

Today, President Bush took a swipe at people for “speculating” that this trip to Europe may be his last trip as president:

errr

it’s either his last trip, he does back to back or he doesn’t think there will be elections

Sorry about your poison ivy Elliot. I haven’t had it in years, but I remember it as tortuous.

in that very vain, this is frightening over at think progress;

Today, President Bush took a swipe at people for “speculating” that this trip to Europe may be his last trip as president:

errr

Confirms my suspicions.

The Great Orange Satan (Kos) put up a poll that showed Inhofe was vulnerable, but Andrew Rice suffered from low visibility/name recognition. Translated, this means he needs campaign money to buy ad space. Since Inofe does such a good job carrying water for Corporate interest, that funding source is barren for Rice.

Which leaves it up to us to unseat Inhofe by funding Rice’s campaign.

Thanks Carolyn, I’m pretty good at washing up when I come in from the yard; but I have two cats and a dog, so I can’t completely avoid it.

And as for Bush, that was downright weird when he said that about “speckutaltin’” And I’m not one of those who things he’s the least bit interested in staying in office past next January.

I think farmers do accept that our weather has been changing.

One thing farmers have been doing to cope is to buy high quality seed that is able to better tolerate extreme weather. It is very expensive, but necessary.

another thing is the whole ‘pasture raised xxx’(name your animal of choice) where everything is harvested just as winter hits so that they don’t have to winter over animals and feed them grain. Yes, it is healthier…but it is also frankly less expensive from an inputs perspective.

“high quality sead better able to accomodate weather” is going to have some oposing liabilities, not as edible, etc

This year for the first time, I’m not seeing a lot of bees. One at a time, here and there. Usually their droning fills the air around the lilac trees.

Please show me where you dealt with the basic issue of definitions and where they came from. Sorry I didn’t recall that you mentioned flood control, but the fact is that if you want to call yourself part of a “reality based community”, you had better learn to explain things in terms of reality, instead of name calling (i.e., “denialist”, “head in the sand”).

That’s not being overly careful. That’s being rational.

One of the problems you face trying to get journalists and others to be more mindful of the effects of climate change is that there are alternative explanations for these floods, and they’re good ones.

Just heard from a friend who was one of the lucky few allowed to get to their homes to retrieve stuff from the evacuated areas in Cedar Rapids. She said she could practically touch the ducks swimming around right outside her window… the second story window. Another friend told me that the waters there crested at 32 feet, 20 feet ABOVE the height of the levees (rendering the levees utterly irrelevant). Someone messed up.

a few years ago I commented to my dad that spiders were everywhere, man we had tons of spiders

I haven’t seen any since that deluge

I never noticed a cycle of spider population before

Tragically, what used to constitute hyperbole is now the new reality.

Not really. The grain I am talking about isn’t eaten directly by humans.

Lots of city folks don’t realize that you can’t eat field corn.

I’ve noticed cycles. Don’t care for very spidery years.

got it

I got a laugh out of that. Having grown up on a farm I do know the difference. City folks might get a real surprise.

I am tired of the people who are determined to reject evidence and science. There are people who are falsely laying out data, in abusive fashions. And, they are constantly looking for the crack.

Nowhere did I write that there are not other elements to what is going on or even that this is principally Global Warming.

This is not a post, however, on the myriad of causes and failures of water / flood plain (mis)management in the United States, but a discussion of how one element (Global Warming) is notable in its absence from the discussion.

Reality is: humanity has changed the world. 200 years ago, roughly, the atmosphere was at 280 ppm of CO2, we are now above 385 and climbing. For a million-year record, it has not exceeded about 285 ever. The science related to CO2 (and other GHG) is that it will contribute to capturing radiation and heating of the planet. And, amid that, one of the impacts of changes will be more extreme weather events.

And, if you want to complain about my language on this issue, try reading the 100s of posts and 10,000s of words about the subject matter. I am tired of rehashing old ground. The question, if working in reality-based policy, is not whether humanity has changed the world (we have) and not whether there is global warming (there is) and not whether the impacts are serious (they are) but should be about what we should be doing to reduce the extent of catastrophic climate change and mitigate the impacts of Global Warming that is and will occur.

Read your post about motivation for skeptics. All, save for the crackpot, and even him for spotlight seeking, can be found money as the primary factor.

The sole exception would be the Theo-con sitting in the Amen section corrupted by the Corporate-cons as a vote-getter to the levers of power.

I find such “explanations” sand in the eyes, almost apologizing and rationalizing such behavior. Sorry I missed that post when you put it up so I could take it point by point where the motivational root is money (or power to get money).

Perhaps I will do a post to furnish a “treatise” on this, using your post for a format. When I get it done, I will invite you over for some agreeable disagreements.

I will take a look at the discussion from that frame/perspective. As I said, that is tentative, an attempt. I don’t claim it as definitive.

I think that the “philosophical”/”ideological” does not necessarily mean monetary in motivation.

And, I will be glad to see your perpective … and, who knows, I might agree 100% and we will have some amicable agreements rather than disagreements.

I’ll take the philosophical/ideological perspective right now. By that, I will assume you speak of the “role of government”. If one believes in limited Government, the mere acknowledgment of global warming invites government intervention and regulation etc.

Follow that through. The ideology/philosophy of unregulated raw capitalism has been tried before. In Europe awhile back. We call it the Dark Ages. A rich and powerful few and a powerless, terrified everybody else.

In fact, every time and every place this philosophy/ideology has prevailed the results are identical. Who, save for the few would endorse such a plan?

They have a most excellent sales staff, educated at the best Universities and have adopted certain “culture issues” to woo low-information voters (we have too many of them, Thanks Media) to vote in office those who do not believe in the office. We see the results today with exploding wealth at the top 2 percent and not so much everybody else.

In short, it is because of financial reasons that the Corporate-cons want free reign to rape-pillage and plunder, which they cannot do with a well-regulated economy.