Morley, Mike, Welcome to the Lake.

Greetings, gentlemen! I’m looking forward to this, and hope we get a great turnout.

Welcome to FDL Morley and Mike

And welcome to you as well Sara. Thanks for hosting this.

we are looking forward to the conversation.
Morley Winograd

By way of setting up the background, I’m interested in knowing how you first discovered S&H, and how you’ve applied these theories in your work so far.

Thanks, Bev. We’re looking forward to an interesting session.

Mike said something yesterday that suggested you’d been working with these ideas since the 70s — long before they were published for the mass audience. That intrigued me.

I have not had an opportunity to read your book but would just like to say that as a Boomer who has followed politics all my life, I can only hope and pray that we are leaving the politics-as-practiced-by-Nixon era.

I first read Generations right after it was published in the late 80s and pointed it out to Morley as an amazing book that seemed to explain very much about American history and society. We both vowed at that point to apply the S & H theory to our own particular area of interest–politics.

your long national nightmare is over. Nixonland book just out suggests it will never end. We say it ends this year.
Morley

Dakine, if these gentlemen are right, we have a lot to look forward to.

M&M, how do you see the Millennials changing our politics in the decade or two ahead?

I’m a tailend boomer and was generally apathetic about politics until now. you seem to have a hopeful message for the mess we’re in. welcome to the lake.

We obviously were not aware of the Strauss and Howe theories in the 70s, but I wrote by doctoral thesis about political realignments. Poltical scientist often suggest that realignments are produced by a new generation entering the electorate. It all became even clearer after reading Generations and will become even more so in 2008 and beyond, when the Millenial Generation takes US poltics in a new direction.

Morley, I’m not sure that’s entirely accurate. Rick is my boss, friend, and mentor; and I know that he’s very concerned about getting that consensus re-made. As an Xer, though, he’s also a bit cynical about the possibility that could happen. But it’s a conversation you might want to have with him personally.

We have very hopeful message, but it’s really not ours. It’s the pattern of US history. Every 80 years a new civic generation comes of age to help unify America and resolve basic economic issues that had been deferred in the social issue divisions of the previous era.

The thing that struck me about your argument is just how very different this generation is from the previous two. It’s like they’re going to bring us most of what we’ve always said we wanted…but they’re going to do it in ways we may not understand or like in the short run.

And it seems to me that we Boomers have a choice to make: we can either empower them, or thwart them.

To use S&H terms, we are moving out of an “idealist” era, dominated by Boomers, into a “civic” era, dominated by Millennials. This will result in major shift in political campaigns, coalitions and public policy. For politics, it will be the end of divisive, hot rhetoric shouted on 30 second TV commercials. that stopped working in 2006, as we describe in our book. Most notable example for us in CA was defeat of Pombo by McNerny. But Republicans are still trying those tactics as recently as last week in Miss. and of course losing much to their surprise. The new politics, to use a bad phrase, will involve political conversations on the web through social networks and blogs that invite interaction and involvement by grass/Net roots. The messages that work in that medium are ones of unity and hope–appeals that resonate particularly well with civic-oriented Millennials who have been taught to play nice and look for win-win solutions for the entire group for their entire lives. With the Millennial generation’s size and unity, and facility with Net communications, this type of politics will be the winning message in the future.
Morley

That’s interesting, Sara. Based on an op. ed. that he wrote in the Washington Post and that appeared opposite ours on Feb. 3, that seems to be his message. But, actually, I just sent Rick an email today to introduce ourselves and, hopefully, be able to carry on the conversation, pointing to areas where we agree (of which there seem to be many) and where we may differ.

This is so fascinating and inspirational!!

Thank you.

I see the difference in my audience, for sure.

As a futures blogger, I occasionally put out best-case and worst-case scenarios for various things. The best-case ones invariably annoy Boomer and X readers, whose cynicism won’t let them trust that the best case is possible. But the younger readers get them, and take them to heart.

Worst-case scenarios are just the opposite. For the readers over 35 or so, I’m just naming nightmares they’ve already had. The younger ones think it’s possible, but don’t think they’re nearly as likely.

“empmower or thwart” is precisely the choice facing Dems in Denver. With Obama winning 2/3 of the votes of this generation, the Democrats better be sure the decisions they make on the nominee–and VP–are seen by Millennials as in keeping with the promises of hope and change that brought them into the group in the first place. Otherwise they could lose 40 years of political opportunity. Millennials identify with Dems over Reps by 2:1 margin–and are the first generation where more self-identify as Liberal vs. Conservative in decades. Given that predisposition, Dems need to respond to their way of thinking about and behaving in the world in order to be sure those who vote in 2008 stay loyal throughout their entire lives.

What do we need to do to make that happen?

Unfortunately, one problem with that is so many of the folks in power in Washington are older than Boomers and have no clue how to relinquish anything where they’re not in charge and running the show.

Kind of interesting…aren’t we in the “Age of Aquarius” now? I wonder if the generational “cycles” somehow also correspond to the planets. (okay, I know, I know…but still)….

Hi Sara thanks for hosting this book salon, and Hi Morley and Michael. I think you write a book of hope, and like LS said, inspiration. Thanks for that.

Do you think the Iraq War will affect the millennial generation the way the Vietnam War has affected the baby boomers?

That makes sense. Of course, this could be a matter of self-fulfilling prophecies. If you think it’s going to be bad, it probably will be. If you think it might be good, there’s a decent chance it will be. Boomers and X’ers think politics is corrupt and won’t accomplish anything and aren’t surprised when it doesn’t. Civic generations like the GI’s and Millennials are optimistic and will work to make good things happen.

Dakine, I think the Boomers — especially the ‘43-’55 cohort, the first half of the generation — have that problem, too. Right and left, they’re very confrontational, and prone to my-way-or-the-highway thinking. Compromise has never been their strong suit.

Michael, what happens if they get out there and try to change things — and it doesn’t quite go right for them?

Is the Millennial outlook ALL about “means” — political process, involvement, etc. — or is there also a general tendency in “ends” — progressive ideas, egalitarianism, pacifism, or the like?

If the answer is yes, is this part of the nature of being a Millennial, or is it just happenstance, the result of the Millennials being a product of this specific era?

Boomers have tried to use politics to impose their values and ideology upon the body politic. Because they are such a divided generation, at the national level this has led to gridlock for 40 years. But in coming to the Dem convention we have only to deal with one half of the Boomer ideological divide. Unfortunately, the “My way or the highway” attitude still prevails within “our Boomers” and the need for compromise, or even letting the other side’s ideas prevail is not something they are willing to acknowledge. Furthermore, most of the party’s leadership, especially superdelegates, are Boomers. Only three Sdelegates are Millennials and Xers remain a distinct minority in the group. So now they will have to do what they are generationally disinclined to do–let the other guy win. At the same time, the Millennials need to do something they aren’t used to doing. They are going to have to open up their group and let people who think differently than they do inside it. So VP may have to be a candidate who can attract older voters, not with conservative messages, but with an understanding of Boomer values, particularly female Boomers who are much more likely to be Dem/progressive. And Millennials will have to embrace that person as being a help to their candidate, Obama, not a sellout. But whatever Dems do they cannot make any decisions in Denver that don’t look like they are fair. Having taught an entire generation to play by the rules, the last thing Dems can afford to do is execute any cynical moves that ignore the rules in order to accomplish some private agenda.
Morley

Not all of us of course (’52). But so many of us watched our government lie to us, shoot us, let loose dogs on US citizens, and saw our heros used as targets.

So we tended to build walls for self protection. While wanting to believe the best, we learned from hard experience to expect the worst out of all of the institutions. And unfortunately, usually had those expectations lived down to.

Thanks so much for being here today, Michael and Morely.

I’m curious — did Barney teach anyone anything that Mr. Rogers or Sesame Street didn’t? And was it a more powerful influence than, say, Grand Theft Auto or Doom?

I wonder if the Millenials are so hopeful because the political consciousness was nurtured in a crucible of opposition to GOP hegemony. We experienced it online, where as long as everyone was united against Bush it blurred distinctions between those on the left. But over time, we have watched as the “politics of hope” became the “politics of I hope you fucking die” (as Pach likes to call it). While I don’t think the campaigns themselves were near as brutal as those I’ve watched in the past, their partisan followers are extraordinarily — well, let’s just say “not consensus building.”

It’s not going to be all beer and skittles. As Sara notes, how do you think the Millenials are going to take disappointment? There’s a good chance that there’s going to be a lot of it. From what I’ve observed, they can be appealed to by positive messaging, but when things don’t go their way, they have a real taste for confrontation.

Both wars are equally important to the Boomers and Millennials. However, each generation reacts very differently to the war. For those Boomers who opposed the Vietnam war, it was seen as immoral. They opposed the war for pacifistic reasons and took to the streets to fight it. For the equally large number of Millenials who oppose the Iraq war, it is seen as stupid and poorly managed, but not necessarily immoral. As a result of 9/11, Millennials are very concerned with national security and believe that the Iraq war and the way the Bush administration has fought it have taken attention off the bigger overall issue of Islamic extremism. In addition, Millennials are using the electoral system to end the war.

I asked the above question because it reflects what I’m hearing from Boomer parents whose Millennial kids are turning out big time for Obama. The parents are terrified: they remember being that excited when they were young — but also the pain of watching those dreams get shattered. They don’t want that happening to their kids, so they’re trying to talk them down from their ideals before they get hurt.

I’ve said that the “cult of Obama” talk was in large part fueled by this fear.

In addition to the shift in attitude toward the electoral process do you see the Millennials becoming more involved as non-elected civil servants, replacing the retiring Boomers, and working within the system to make it more responsive to the needs of the public rather than maintaining the status quo?

My copy of the book just arrived today, and I haven’t yet had a chance to get to it — but I’m looking forward to it. I did a lot of work with Strauss and Howe for my dissertation (in religion), and so I was glad to see you two appear on the “upcoming Book Salon” guest list!

The admissions office at Beloit College recognized the potential for problems in communications and historical awareness when Boomer faculty are teaching Millennial freshmen. To help the faculty recognize the differences in historical awareness, they put out a “mindset list” each fall. The Fall 2006 list, probing the mindset of the entering students (born around 1988 or so), includes nuggets like these:

1. The Soviet Union has never existed and therefore is about as scary as the student union.
2. They have known only two presidents.
3. For most of their lives, major U.S. airlines have been bankrupt.
6. There has always been only one Germany.
9. A stained blue dress is as famous to their generation as a third-rate burglary was to their parents’.
12. Smoking has never been permitted on U.S. airlines.
16. DNA fingerprinting has always been admissible evidence in court.
17. They grew up pushing their own miniature shopping carts in the supermarket.
19. “Google” has always been a verb.
20. Text messaging is their e-mail.
22. Mr. Rogers, not Walter Cronkite, has always been the most trusted man in America.
28. Carbon copies are oddities found in their grandparents’ attics.
30. Non-denominational mega-churches have always been the fastest growing. religious organizations in the U.S.
37. Brides have always worn white for a first, second, or third wedding.
41. They have always been able to watch wars and revolutions live on television.
48. Most of them have never had the chance to eat bad airline food.
50. The really rich have regularly expressed exuberance with outlandish birthday parties.
53. They have always preferred going out in groups as opposed to dating.
54. There have always been live organ donors.
55. They have always had access to their own credit cards.
62. Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti have always been luxury cars of choice.
63. Television stations have never concluded the broadcast day with the national anthem.
64. LoJack transmitters have always been finding lost cars.
68. “Outing” has always been a threat.
70. They have always “dissed” what they don’t like.
71. The U.S. has always been studying global warming to confirm its existence.
72. Richard M. Daley has always been the mayor of Chicago.
75. Professional athletes have always competed in the Olympics.

Two years ago, I heard a commercial for a GOP candidate in CA that, while trying to reach younger voters, made repeated reference to Ed McMahon and his Tonight Show routines with Johnny Carson.

He did not win.

Very true.

In the words of a Boomer era song, we expect Millennials, as a civic generation, to “keep on a keepin’ on” if things don’t always go their way. They will just continue to work with their peers until they can make things go right. But, given the sheer size and dynamism of this generation, we don’t expect many things to not go their way over the next four decades. They will shape America as surely and completely as the GI Generation did in the 1940s and 1950s.

Morley, do you see Gen X playing a role in smoothing out the disconnect between the two generations? S&H have pointed out that previous Nomad generations played this role in earlier cycles. The Lost Generation were the practical, sane managers who ran interference between the Missionary elders and the GI generation during the last crisis. They were the grizzled sarges and beloved generals and git-er-done managers for the crisis. They taught the kids how to make it work.

I’m the boomer parent of a gen-x/millenial bridge child, and a true millenial. It is so exciting to hang around and talk to them and their friends (20-somethings). I have great hope for the future because of the energy and enthusiasm these folk are bringing to the process.

Morley and Michael, thank you for being here today. Your post perfectly describes the young ‘uns i know and gives me more hope than ever.

In a word, ‘yes.” This is a generation that’s very commited to public service on both a voluntary and paid basis.

Digg this post

The Lost Generation is also the only generation never to have had a member of its cohort in the Oval Office.

s the Millennial outlook ALL about “means” — political process, involvement, etc. — or is there also a general tendency in “ends” — progressive ideas, egalitarianism, pacifism, or the like?

There is a very distinct generational tendency on ends. Egalitarianism that you mentioned is one of them. In all civic eras, so it is a generational archetype tendency, America has reduced the level of economic inequality that resulted from the less government, laissez faire economic policies of the preceding idealist era. Ex: 1929, wealthiest 1% owned 50% of nation’s wealth. 1949, post FDR, they owned 30%. Its now 45% and rising but will fall again after Civic era/Dem victories at all levels in 2008. We will see national health insurance ,mandatory national service (not a draft) in exchange for college tuition aid and a strong environmental agenda from fed. government from the influence of this generation. But you won’t see pacifism. (See Mike’s comments). Seared by 9/11 and overly protected by their parents, this generation searches for safety at all times and are very pro-uniform, be it the military or police/fire.

The shift in means comes from the particular nature of the communication technology–social networks–that this generation uses to organize itself. That opens up the possibility of the end of corporate special interest money influence in DC. But the ends Millennials seek are very much of a “civic” generation nature. Think Lincoln and 1860s, FDR and 1932.
Morley

That’s not true, Peter. Both Eisenhower and Truman were Lost Gen. But the current Silents will indeed be the first if McCain loses.

(My Silent mother is deeply chagrined by this — she’s lived her whole damned life under the thumb of the GIs or the Boomers, and finds both groups annoying.)

Sorry — my mistake. I was thinking of the Silents, not the Lost.

It is true that Nomad generations have sometimes played that role. As you indicated, it was Lost Generation generals like Ike and Patton who intervened between the Missionary political leaders (FDR) and the GI troops. But, in fact, we believe that the more compromise oriented Silents may actually be better positioned to mediate between generations.

I can see that emphasis on security and uniforms as a real source of potential friction between the Xers, especially, and the Millennials. Nomad generations have always been the strongest advocates of personal liberty — they’re all about “leave me alone.” They’re not going to go gently into that security state — nor should they. S&H say it’s a big part of their generational duty to resist that authoritarian impulse from both the generation above and below them.

I don’t really know how to put this into words, but I’m convinced that my generation (born 1952) would not have had the same capacity to handle fast moving information with the facility that the young people do at this time in history. We were pragmatic and analytical — whereas, they flow through technological information processing rapidly and get to the solution seemingly effortlessly. It seems as if something in their brains is functioning in a different way and extremely rapidly. A kind of evolution if you will.

Actually, Sara, I believe it is the Silent Generation that has never had a president, although McCain could change that. Truman and, I believe, Ike were members of the Lost Generation.

Michael, that’s an interesting statement. It makes sense to me — but could you elaborate a bit on that?

Also: what happens when the Silents pass from the scene? They’re all over 65 now….

I think you were addressing Peter, since I made a similar point…

But you won’t see pacifism…. Seared by 9/11 and overly protected by their parents, this generation searches for safety at all times and are very pro-uniform, be it the military or police/fire.

Do you foresee this mindset evolving into a military command structure that in the not-so-distant future will again see the “might makes right” mentality take precedence over diplomatic options?

I’m curious — did Barney teach anyone anything that Mr. Rogers or Sesame Street didn’t? And was it a more powerful influence than, say, Grand Theft Auto or Doom?

Yes Barney is qualitatively different (and Millennials favorite show as toddlers). Mr. Rogers taught kids to feel good about themselves. Self esteem very much part of Barney so in that way similar. Sesame Street taught people to be respectful of people of different color, while still teaching kids to be able to discriminate intellectually (”which of these things is not like the other?”) Barney says even a purple dinosaur is the same as everyone else. The goal is not just to feel good about yourself but about the group. the group is best when its made up of different kinds of people (and animals) is another part of the message. So Millennials actually don’t see color or ethnic background when thinking about their friends. And as the most diverse generation in American history (40% non-white) with 20% having an immigrant parent, they don’t see any reason to make those distinctions. So Obama’s mixed race parentage and overseas experiences growing up make him, despite his Boomer birth date, a “typical Millennial.”

as for Doom and Grand Theft Auto, Millennial crime rates continue to go down, and now stand at the lowest levels for juvenile crime in nation’s history. There is no relationship that can be found based on social behavior and violent games “atmosphere.” The lessons Millennials absorbed came from their parents and the shows, like Barney, their parents encouraged them to watch.
Morley

You are right, Sara. Millennials are very partial to the uniformed services. Even though they oppose the Iraq war, they do not personally attack the military and couldn’t imagine calling cops, “pigs.” If there is a downside to civic eras, it is the short shrift occasionally given to the civil liberties of people and groups seen as potential threats to unity and the common cause (the suspension of the right to a writ of habeas corpus in the Civil War, the interment of Japanese-Americans in WW II, McCarthyism, etc).

I agree that a large number of millenials have technological fluency, but there is a huge number of high school drop-outs in that group. In Tennessee, the number of high school drop-outs has been in the range of 35-45% for years.

Isn’t there a class issue hiding in this generation?

LS, I’m sure this is true. I spent a dozen years in the computer game business, which may be responsible in part for this cognitive shift. You grow up playing “Sim City,” and your ability to understand networks and determine what’s relevant in a system’s behavior becomes second nature. The key to their ability to parse so much so fast is that they’re natural-born systems thinkers.

I don’t know if it is Xers or Ms, but people younger (cough) than myself feel more comfortable working in open spaces and having more chatter and noise around them…doesn’t seem to affect their concentration. quite the opposite. Libraries are reflecting this accommodation for conversation and gathering, more and more.

Just to add to your point about groups.

M&M, I’m curious about your designation of Obama as a Boomer. I’m a peak-year boomer - born in 1958. My husband and younger brothers were all born ‘61-’62, and they identify as Xers (and I’d agree — they’re too young to have any of he cultural reference points that unite Boomers). There’s a generational line between us that’s not there with people who are three — or six — years older than me.

Obama was born in ‘61. He’s very tail-end-Boomer, maybe — but I’d put him just as easily at the very leading edge of Gen X. He’s got a far more practical way about him, and shares few of the memories and history that link the two Boomer cohorts.

Thoughts?

One dynamic that Strauss and Howe discuss in their more recent work is that in contrast to earlier eras, now we see the current Millennial generation (heroic/civic archetype) taking the scene where there are significant numbers of the earlier heroic/civic archetype cohort — the GIs — still around. Jimmy Carter fits the bill as one of these earlier era GIs whose mindset resembles that of the Millennials.

What would you think of a convention speech by Carter, aimed at Millennials, to push what Sara described above as “a dramatic — and probably progressive — political realignment not unlike the one in 1932, which restored faith in government, ignited a new generation of young voters, and brought the country together to rebuild the nation and revitalize its civic life.”?

Sorry it took me awhile to get to this one. I am sure that Boomer parents are concerned that their Millennial kids will be disappointed and crushed by the experience just as the liberal half of the Boomer generation was. But Millennials are more tenancious. We believe that they will deal with adversity far better than their parents, more like their GI Generation grandparents who dealt with and perservered through the huge adversities of the Depression and WW II. Moreover, for a political perspective, unlike the Boomers, the Millennials are not divided along gender, ethnic, and ideological lines. Even if they don’t turn things around this year, they will soon.

Interesting. Yes they are more diverse than any American generation has been, and common sense tells me that this may be why they’re more accepting — they’ve grown up around people who are “different” than them. Is there any data to support the “Barney” theory?

Regarding Millennials’ attitudes toward uniforms and what they represent:

I have a friend (early Gen X) who consorts with a lot of Millennials, and he finds they chafe under the control of uniforms. These are kids whose notion of authority is “Those who tell me where I can’t skate, threaten me with arrest for my choice of recreational substance, and try to restrict how I interact with the music, video, games and other electronic media with which I define my very self.”

Is this just a skewed sample, or is there also a kernel of rebellion in the Millennials?

Good point. My Millennial daughter is graduating from (a very twee and preppy) high school in two weeks. They’re already planning the bonfire — she’s boxed up her kilts, blazers, and school tie, and can’t wait to watch it go up in smoke. (They’re going to dump the ashes on the headmaster’s car.)

I don’t think anyone’s ever gonna get that kid into a uniform again, ever, for any reason.

So the issue of technological sophistication is multi-dimensional. While everyone notices Millennial multi-tasking, scientific studies show they are just “chunking” things into smaller bites and processing them in “packets” rather than in long form. That skill is not related precisely to the high school drop out rate problem, you mentioned and which is very real problem for this generation. Best way to think about it is that the Millennials have a lot of latent skills, and which ones get brought to the surface and honed depend on their upbringing–both at home and at school. In the book, Millennial Makeover, we describe charter school in Detroit which takes kids in on non-discriminatory basis and graduates 90% of them from high school and 90% of those who graduate go to college. What they do is reach the kid through what interests them, not what NCLB prescribes as today’s lesson plan. Eventually they teach them all they will need to know to jump through the “get to college” hoops, but that’s not where they start.
Finally, studies by Harvard’s Institute of Politics between those Millennials attending 4 year colleges and those not shows very few differences in political attitudes. And other studies show Latino and AA Millennials more optimistic than white Millennials about their ability to do better than their parents. So again, the ingredients for success are present throughout the generation, both because of the way they learn and how they were raised. But creating educational systems that allow them to reach their potential is just one of the major “civic” tasks that this generation will demand get done and if older folks don’t do it, they will do it themselves (10% of Princeton graduates are signing up for “teach for America.”
Morley

We actually have lots of data to support the openess and tolerance of the Millennials. Demographically, 40% are non-white and 20% have at least one immigrant parent. They are the generation least bound by sex role distinctions; more than half of those now in professional schools are women. Attitudinally, 95% of white Millennials have no problems with interracial dating and 2/3 of all Millennials accept gay marriage. Large majorities of Millennials favor affirmative action and steps to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

1958 is peak year? I feel like a tail end boomer withthe label and without the benefits…

Sara:
Well as you know it all depends on where you draw the line on generations. Using S&H method, Boomers end in 60 or at most 61. In our book and in our survey work, we use the more common definition of Boomers ending in 64. But I think the best distinction is one that some “late Boomers”, those born between 60 and 65 use, which is to call that “cusp” the Jones Generation. if you look up that website you will see those born in those years thinking and acting a lot like Sen. Obama.
morley

I know. But, IIRC, 58 was the biggest year of all.

That “tail-end boomer” thing seems to affect all of us born from ‘56 onward. The people born in first decade of the boom were utterly defined by the Vietnam War — they were either fighting in it, or fighting against it. Civil rights and early feminism were other battles — which is part of why it’s still all about conflict for them.

But those of us who graduated from high school in ‘74 and onward weren’t defined by that. We were too young for Woodstock, and most of the campus unrest was over by the time we got to college. Our high school years look like “Almost Famous” and “Dazed and Confused.” We were disco babies.

Some saecular theory folks call us “Generation Jones” (google it for an explanation). Neither here nor there. Practical idealists, more conciliatory. And we never quite belonged to the rest of the generation. Obama does fit this model of Boomer.

It’s notable to me that the oldest bloggers are Gen Jones, which may be because we were also the very first computer generation. You don’t find many bloggers over 50.

Close enough, but actually 1957 was the peak year for births in the Boomer era.

Thanks. I knew you’d know.

Millennials, like any other generation, will rebel. But unlike Boomers they don’t rebel against the civic or political establishment. Instead they seek to reinvigorate it. Instead they rebel, as other civic generations have done, against the culture that surrounds them. So celebrities, especially those who misbehave, are out. Parents are their friends and most likely to be named as their hero. The suits at RIAA who tried to take their music are also swept up in this general hostility to elites. But its a rebellion more focused on media and pop culture than on governmental leaders.
Morley

“But its a rebellion more focused on media and pop culture than on governmental leaders.”

That sounds like it has some serious implications for those who would market to them….

southern Dragon:
No, Millennials are in favor of a multilateralist approach to foreign affairs based on our survey data. that doesn’t make them pacifists. They see America and its values as playing an important and prominent role in the world. Some of that based on their own social network “friends” from around the world. But imposing ones beliefs through the use of force on the playground or around the world is not a Millennial trait. Its very much a typical behavior of idealist generations, the most recent of which are Boomers.
Morley

I find that rather disturbing. Will they not care about the type of people who lead the country? Non-involvement in gov’t? Do they seem to feel that they can just ignore it and it won’t bother them?

The notion of Jimmie Carter speaking at the Democratic National Convention as a link to the GI Generation is a good one. While I doubt many Millennials have much of a perception of him as president, he should be able to connect with that generation in a number of ways. First, his involvement with Habitat for Humanity speaks to the Millennials’ spirit of community service. Second, he seems to tacitly support Barack Obama, and like many members of older generations, says he does so because his Millennial grandchildren do. I would expect him to have a visible role at the convention.

“rebellion against pop culture” comment. Sara, you are right. for those of us in the “futures’s Business a must read in this area would be “millennials and Pop Culture.” Published by S&H last year but with a lot of help from Pete Markiewicz whose lectures on this subject can also be found on YouTube.
Morley

Twain:
you must have misunderstood. Not sure what you are referring to. If you read our other answers you will see that Millennials as a civic generation care most about who the government’s leaders are and what the government does.
They are very active politically, doubling, tripling and in some cases quadrupling previous levels of Gen X youth voting in this years primaries.
Morley

Twain, I hear Morley saying that they will care, very deeply, who runs the country. And they’ll be far more involved than the previous two generations, because they believe that government is a powerful tool for change.

We’re in the fix we’re in because both Boom and X did think they could ignore it. Millennials were brought up to trust authority, and follow trustworthy leadership. I think (though M&M may have found differently) that they’re also far more likely to actively reject unworthy authority — which is why they’re going 2-1 against the GOP these days. They’re followers, but they carefully pick who they follow, and want to know right up front where they’re being led.

Thanks for this, Morley. I’ll be sure to take a look at it, and look up those videos.

I’m also interested in Peterr, our guest who did his dissertation using S&H to look at religion. As a social futurist, religion is a huge part of what I’m interested in (and my thesis advisor is a religious futurist who teaches at Drew). Peterr, can we talk about this off-list?

thanks, I think you nailed it.

We were too young for Woodstock, and most of the campus unrest was over by the time we got to college.

No props for rebellious or rock and roll.

We were disco babies.

Uh, rrright.

And we never quite belonged to the rest of the generation

exactly what I meant to say. And following all of them into the job market was a little tough too as I recall. Not that I’m bitter or anything…I really wanted to be a DFH but was born too late.

It seems that many people (not necessarily tied to a generation) view their own identities as subsumed by a community of some sort: family, church or job, for example.

Is this true of Millennials, or do they see themselves as individuals, first? To what extent do Millennials self-identify as Millennials, different from those who came before?

The reason I ask is that the answer has a major bearing on how best to approach the Millennial voter, consumer, citizen, neighbor, etc.

You said “But it’s a rebellion more focused on media and pop culture than on gov’t leaders.”
Sorry, if I misunderstood.

And a question: What effect do you think the Iraq War will have on Ms, coming so early in the crisis and shaping their early years so strongly?

Sara,

It’s true, that the Millennials are followers now and they will reject current “leaders” who are not truthful, transparent, and oriented to the entire group. But some day they will, of course, be leaders. It will be interesting to see what their style will be when they are confronted with the next generation of unconventional, moralistic idealist just as the GI’s were when the Boomers came of age.

I’m laughing out loud. I’ve already warned my kids that, warm and wonderful as our relationship is, their relationships with their own get probably will be considerably more strained.

Certainly. I can get your email from one of the mods, and I’ll drop you a note.

Hello Mike and Morley, and thanks for this great intro, Sara.

I haven’t yet read your book, but what happened to all that inward-turning and nesting, seeking security, that we were promised by futurists and predictors after 9/11? Isn’t the civic engagement of the Millennials exactly the opposite of the sofa-bound home-bunnies we were told to expect, entranced with American Idol, Lost, sports on the big screen, and child-rearing? Women would return to their traditional roles in the home, men would become manly and stronger, blah blah.

And how might you account for the difference?

Thanks for joining us today. I look forward to reading your book!

I appreciate your response, but, again, the things you describe about the millenials don’t seem likely to exist among high-school drop-outs.

So isn’t there a pretty strong class issue here? Do you thing the drop-outs are likely to be much like the better-educated part of their cohort?

you two should also include Don Miller at USC in the conversation on Religion and Millennials. His book on subject comes out this month. demiller at usc dot edu.
Morley

This makes the Millennials superbly receptive to messages about “restoring America’s reputation in the world” after watching Abu Ghraib, Gitmo, and the rest of the BushCo foreign policy achievements drag it into the gutter.

The Iraq war will have an impact, but as indicated earlier, not the same sort of impact as Vietnam had on Boomers. For Millennials the Iraq war is more a matter of governmental and institutional failure rather than morality. In this regard, it is akin to Hurricane Katrina. Millennials want institutions and government to work so that society can be protected and advanced. In the case of both Iraq and Katrina this was not the case and we expect that in 2008 Millennials will let the Republican Party, who presided over those disasters, know it.

Great, Peter. Thanks.

Hi, Teddy! Glad you could make it!

Massaccio, it might be useful to look back at the GIs. They were Depression babies. Most of them had such poor diet, medical care, and dental care that by the time they were conscripted into WWII, an absurd number of them needed major medical attention before they were even fit for combat. Those kids came up hard; it wasn’t until Uncle Sam gave them three meals, warm clothes, a roof, and a government-issued father (theirs were often far yonder trying to find work) that their lives finally came together.

(For a great account of this, I highly recommend Susan Faludi’s “Stiffed.”)

Seems possible that the upper-class Ms (and the rest of us) will be willing to make a similar investment in those now-forgotten kids when we realize how much we need them to do the work that’s now ahead of us.

Millennials do “NOT” see themselves as individuals first. they define themselves by the groups they belong to and what the group thinks. As The Economist said, “Millennials call their friends in the morning to find out how they should feel.” They make decisions based on consensus of the group where everyone’s opinion is given equal weight. No room for self-apppointed experts of any kind. Think wikipedia, not Encyclopedia Brittanica. So you have to reach Ms through groups. As your list pointed out, the groups can be church oriented or school based, or they could just be their facebook friends. But its always the group that is critical to reaching them.
Morley

Peter, you’re right. Millennials will react negatively to the episodes you’ve mentioned and will want to restore America’s prestige. Not a different message from that of the first GI Generation president, JFK, in 1960. But it’s important to note, that this condemnation of Abu Gharib, Gitmo, etc. will not simply be for moralistic reasons, but because they do not seem to have helped our position in the struggle against terror and Islamic extremism.

Yes, we have to deal with high school dropout issue. but no,we don’t have as much of a class issue in this generation (just like we have no gender gap among Ms in contrast to Boomers) as you might think. There is much less difference in political attitudes (note qualification) among Ms in our out of school than media hype (written by Boomers mostly, some Xer revenge in it too) would suggest. Ms are the best behaved, smartest generation in American history (see social science data in our book and in “millennials and Pop Culture.” You just wouldn’t know it from reading the newspapers–not than any self-respecting Milllennial does.
morley

Is this dynamic bothering anybody else? How can individual differences and ideas be heard if it’s groupthink? Isn’t that what neo-cons count on? where’s the critical thinking in this scenario? I guess I’m confused about this aspect.

This is a great topic. I am a silent always in the shadow of the boomers and have a late boomer daughter. I work around alot of young folks and am struck, yes, by the noise. I so hope the Obama promise is not about disappointment; the Kennedy years, what was lost and longed for, still linger, even as we saw this morning.

Not “simply moralistic” reasons, to be sure — but as a civic generation, Millennials (like the GIs before them) are not debaters of ideals, but champions of them. Ideals matter to them, and they don’t take kindly to those that make a mockery of them.

That sounds very much like “group think.” Isn’t that a facet of what we’re struggling against now, trying to get people to think critically as individuals as opposed to being part of a herd mentality?

Teddy:
with regard to

I haven’t yet read your book, but what happened to all that inward-turning and nesting, seeking security, that we were promised by futurists and predictors after 9/11? Isn’t the civic engagement of the Millennials exactly the opposite of the sofa-bound home-bunnies we were told to expect, entranced with American Idol, Lost, sports on the big screen, and child-rearing? Women would return to their traditional roles in the home, men would become manly and stronger, blah blah.

And how might you account for the difference?

I would say, who said futurists are right all the time. if you read S&H Generations or Fourth Turning as Sara mentioned you wouldn’t find the predications you just cited. They see history as circular not linear and so they don’t make these kind of mistakes. The predictions you cite sound like they came from the Boomer hubris that thinks the future will be just like their past, only more so.
morley

Hmmm, even places like Wikipedia have leaders. And the politics of such groups can be arcane, very personal, and very vicious. Also, very petty. Power and influence are just mediated through different forms.

I also seem to recall, from Strauss and Howe, that it is in effect possible for a country, and the generations involved, to “fail” a Great Turning. Millenials are very suited to being turned to authoritarian impulses, should those impulses be wrapped up in the right way. They are the “us” generation. That can be great, but it has a dark side to it as well.

Excellent points, Sara. It’s also worth noting that it isn’t always easy even for college Millennials. Most graduate with huge debt loads that they will spend years paying off and that make it difficult for them to obtain homes, health insurance, etc. In a real sense, society has failed the college contingent among Millennials no less, if in a differnt way, than the non-college contingent. Boomer and even Gen-X college grads were not burdened with debt in their early years and could go about the business of starting their adult lives.

It’s not groupthink, but a mindset that favors community. Think of JFK: “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.”

How will Ms react when, for example, the presidential campaign gets down and dirty? Will this turn some of them off of politics?

I agree with those who are worried about groupthink. I’m hearing from college professors that these kids are very hard to teach: they don’t engage in class, they just sit and take notes and regurgitate on tests. Critical thinking isn’t what it used to be, and I’ve met many nervous academics who don’t think it’s a healthy trend.

On the other hand, M&M point out that they do think in networks — which is not the same thing as groupthink. I think the wikipedia metaphor may be the better one. All of us together are smarter than any one of us. And there are (pardon the phrase) shit-stirrers and provocateurs among the Ms, people who see their role as being the one who asks the hard questions. Those people need all the encouragement we can give them.

great point on individual thinking vs. generational analysis. All we do is describe overall tendencies of groups or segments of society (and political constituencies.) we do not and never intend to imply that this makes them all alike. (for one thing, some generations, not Millennials, are defined by their very individuality!). But the generational perspective does prove to be a very useful frame to view current political trends from, among other aspects of society. We wrote our book in early 2007. Submitted manuscript July 4 in fact. Yet we were able to describe what would happen in 2008 using this generational (and technological) trend approach.
And we were more right than normal because Millennials are very much a unified generation who do tend to think and act alike.
Morley

The smartest generation in US history? I’m curious what you mean by this? Based on what stats? And how do you deal with the fact that US students comapre horribly to overseas students? Being the “smartest” generation doesn’t mean much if other countries’ youngsters are smarter.

I’m GenX and my college debt took 13 years to pay off. Yeah, things are worse now, but GenX is after, not before, the great education inflation.

Sara, you’ve got mail.

(Thanks, mods!)

What they don’t account for is that government is no longer the central organizational model. The most important organizational model through which society is organized is now the business corporation. It is with and through corporations that wealth and power flow, no longer the state.

The corporation has as we well know been able to co opt the state on many many levels. ‘Our’ Democrats who pledged to kill earmarks have embraced them as never before. We can pretend regulatory issues will no longer be in the hands of corporations come election day but we are kidding ourselves. Barney Frank, the liberals liberal is spearheading a move to make the GSE’s take on huge portions of the toxic mortgage debt extant, which will in the end require government bailout. The key being that the paper is going to be taken off the books of the banks and the ‘private’ sector. The losses socialized after the profits were made.

Even with the best intentions in the world Obama nor anyone can staff an administration that isn’t riddled from top to bottom with those whose self interest is not attached to corporate interests. No matter how high minded they sound or think they are in the end the ‘common good’ as defined in the past is dead.

This political cycle may follow their general outline but there are other larger cycles. The age of government is passing.

SD - i had a similar reaction:

they define themselves by the groups they belong to and what the group thinks. As The Economist said, “Millennials call their friends in the morning to find out how they should feel.” They make decisions based on consensus of the group where everyone’s opinion is given equal weight.

this seem inherently contradictory to me. consensus is a process that requires individuals to first think for themselves as well as thinking with each other. i don’t see how there can be consensus without individual thought. what is described here is group think - not consensus.

If Ms’ interaction with the world is mediated by groups, can we expect Ms to continue to invent new types of groups, and use groups in different ways?

Obviously some of this is happening now because of technology (e.g., MySpace, Facebook), but a case could be made that any generation confronted with the Internet would have spawned/adopted those technologies. Is “the group” a tool that Ms are especially adept or inventive with?

this is a good question. I hope what I’ve learned here is that Ms will reclaim the political process from its mudslinging?

I myself just think there they go again and it’s not going to work this time…because look what it got us.

the 20s were an age of unprecedented corporate power — absolutely unprecedented. Governments can neuter corporations any time they have the political will to do so. If Millenials want it done, it will eventually get done.

one boomer at one of our book parties said, “They sound like sheep.” Another said, “Yes, but they are our sheep.” I don’t know if that makes you feel better or worse about all this, but it is what it is. The last civic generation, the GIs, brought us the 50s and the man in the gray flannel suit (and culturally rebellious Beatniks). So don’t expect that the new generation will value your way of thinking, which you call ‘Critical thinking” and its emphasis on individual insights just because you do. You aren’t them.
morley

Think tribes - people brought together by shared intersts and beliefs. You belong to an early one yourself - FDL.

I’m Jones, and I paid mine off in 10 years. 3% interest, federally guaranteed. A different era, indeed. Daniel Brooks’ “The Trap” describes this problem passionately and fiercely.

Morley, I’m frankly dismayed by how limited the acceptance of S&H’s thesis is within the futures community. I’ve had to explain it to Peter Bishop, dean of U Houston’s futures program several times — it’s gotten to where when he has questions, I’m the one he asks. It’s just such a rich theory, and so well-supported. And (as you’ve also experienced) it’s made me more right more often than any other three theories I can name.

I don’t think it’s going to be fully accepted until an entire saeculum has played out as predicted. Your book is documenting one piece of that in action, and will have historical value for that reason alone.

And hello, Ian! Glad you could join us!

smartest generation data is based on SAT scores which have been rising ever since Genxers stopped taking them. its a US comparison, not international one. Relative to most recent American generations, they are smartest.
Morley

A couple of weeks ago, Keli Goff was here at the FDL Book Salon talking about her book “Party Crashing: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Political Independence.” Are you familiar with her work, which looked specifically at the generational issues in the African-American community?

Millennials are indeed cohesive and may not always treat those not in the group with compassion and openess. Even though youth crime has been way down over the past decade or so, the incidents when “non-conformists” or people regarded as weird attacked and killed many of their peers are well-known. I already wrote about the incidents of civil liberties violations in civic eras. We are optimistic about what the Millennials will produce but, as with all generational types, in your words what the Millennials will produce could have a “dark side.”

“It”: (no mudslinging) will work this time If it weren’t going to, Obama’s candidacy would have ended with the second reappearance of Rev. Wright.
Morley

The next silents will be the people we X’ers can stand, because they will be the next civil rights generation. And we’ll love the young boomers if we make it that long. Because at least they won’t be sheep.

With respect, that sounds more like re-purposing or reinvigorating an old type of group, rather than inventing a new one.

FYI, I’m an early Jones-er, though today is the first I’ve heard of them.

Their propensity for authoritarianism worries me, which is why it’s so very very important for the Democrats not to blow their relationship to them in this election. Either we bond them tightly to us now, or deal with the consequences later.

Not to be contentious but hasn’t the SAT been changed so much that it is virtually impossible to do a meaningful comparison of scores across generations now?

Yes exactly. gives me hope (there’s that word again!).

However, how can it be that obama is muslim and have a controversial pastor? sigh. (you don’t have to answer this one, rhetorical.)

Ian, we’ll be the old grandparents who whisper with a wink in our Artist grandchildren’s ears: “You know, dear, you don’t have to do *everything* your mother tells you to.” Artist generations, like the Silents, are the ones who begin to break up the Civic consensus, and give the young kids permission to break out. They forge the way to the new Awakening.

Those are our grandchildren. If we want to see the next Awakening, we need to work on those babies.

Came in just as they phased out serious grants and went to straight loans.

Went to university twice. First time around, 86, tuition was $1500. Dropped out after a year. Second time (mid nineties) around tuition was 4.5K. An unbelievable rise in less than ten years. Last time I checked it was about 5.5K. This is in Canada, of course. But we’re on the same cycle as Americans.

Some X’ers made it in while it was still cheap. Some didn’t. Then you graduated and there were no jobs in your field.

xebecs:
Millennial group orientation causes them to use the internet to create social networks and more groups. But the technology itself has no values. Ron Paul used it, with much less effect, to organize Libertarians. Yet everyone in the 90s celebrated the libertarian nature of the Net. Wrong causation. GEn Xer, a very individualist, risk-taking generation used the technology for libertarian purposes, including disrupting existing economic structures. But that’s not how Millennials tend to use the net. They use it to create more groups because they are group oriented, not the other way around.
Morley

SAT methodology was changed to make the SAT easier, iirc. I’m not sure it can really be used for longitudinal studies.

yep.
morley

FYI, I’m an early Jones-er, though today is the first I’ve heard of them.

LOL. Me too. explains a lot. I feel the same way as when I found out I am a scorpio-rising. my sun sign just didn’t fit.

I’m a jonesie.

Ian, you’re right. The upside of Millennials (and all civic generations) is their tendency to unite, built institutions, and solve problems. The downside is their conformity. Morley and I are fond of saying that, while we likely won’t be around to see it, for all of those late Boomers and Gen-X’ers who will grit their teeth over Millennial conformity, a new, unborn and unamed idealist generation will arise in 40 years to drive Millennials crazy. It happened to the GI Generation (Meathead challenging Archie Bunker) and it will someday happen to the Millennials. Hope you’re around to enjoy it.

Ian:
We can argue about this offline. (millmakeover@gmail.com). Adding essay to SATs didn’t make it harder or easier, just testing different skills. if they added a pictorial story telling component, like requiring test takers to submit a youtube video on one of the essay questions the results from Ms would blow all previous results away.
morley

The propensity for authoritarian dialogue or attitude is something that makes me want to run away — far and fast.
Anyone. Right or Left who starts spewing the Truth, as You should know it, makes me blink and turn my back.

I should add that I’ve loved Strauss and Howe since I was forced to read 13th Gen in university. I then went out and bought Generations and read it. 4th Turning is on my bookshelf as well. I suspect I’ll be picking up your book, and if I’m nitpicking, it’s because I care. :)

We’ve got about ten minutes left. Time for a few more questions, and some good-byes to our terrific guests.

Right on, Sara. See my response #139.

But if you are measuring their “smarts” by SAT scores, you aren’t measuring the smarts of those high-school dropouts at all!

Hmmm. Well, it doesn’t take much for me to believe that millenials are doing better than Xers. I just wonder about silents and early boomers. I’ll look into it again. :)

peter:
nope. Haven’t read it. only heard of it.
Morley

There’s also the fact that these kids’ educations have been dominated from the get by high-stakes testing. Those who don’t test well don’t make it — there are no other criteria for success.

I gather that the Millenial concept is specific to American history, but presumably there are analogous cycles in other cultures and regions.

What happens when a Millennial generation of Americans has to deal with another country whose leadership is mostly on a different cycle?

Mudslinging won’t work, but will otherwise standard political tactics turn these guys off?

Still reeling from a conversation I had with a millenial earlier this week, discussing MoveOn’s BushMcCain Challenge. It’s a simple public education stunt, but this millenial was concerned that it just skirted the edge of negative campaigning.

Ian, hope you enjoy our book. I’m sure we’ll enjoy your nitpicking.

xebecs, S&H traced the cycles back to England and the Plantagenets. They limit it to England and its colonies (though I don’t see these cycles as strongly in Canada — Ian may disagree, though).

So your question is a good one. Other historians through the ages, going all the way back to Ibn Khaldun in the 1300s, have tracked similar (though different) cycles in their cultures.

Ordered the book during this discussion but it scares me a lot. The Ms sound a little too Hitler-Youth to me but I won’t be around to see it since I’m a Silent - at 74.

Sara Michael and Morley, thanks so much! I learned a lot and will look into a bunch of new books and subjects! (always a good thing.)

I like the idea that the largest number of Ms have piles of student debt makes them more like the under-educated part of the cohort: they both need communal help to make it.

In some respects, these cycles are moving toward an international convergence — at least in the Northern hemisphere. Germany, France, England, the Soviet Union, Japan, the US, etc. all had to deal with the reality of WWII. It was a “crisis era” around the world, and brought to the fore a generation of civic-minded folks analogous to our GI generation in the US.

Well, my great-nieces and nephews anyway. Actually I’m looking forward to seeing what the Millenials do. I game and I belong to a guild full of them, and they’re good folks - kind, helpful and so on. If you’re in the group, they’re great to you. (Leadership, btw, tends to be young X’ers (ie. not me).

But I know that some things are going to really grate on me. Here’s looking forward even more to the Artists. :)

Thank you Michael and Morley for taking the time to chat with us. This has been a very informative and enlightening conversation. This is one Boomer (’43) who is looking forward to the Millennials’ participation in the changing of the guard.

Peace Love Light

M&M, you’re welcome to hang around as long as you wish — but the formal part of our book salon is now coming to an end. It’s been so great to have you here. Thank you very much for coming.

And thanks to all our guests for the conversation. This one was considerably more focused and less rough-and-tumble, and I think we got a lot covered.

Really looking forward to this book and the others mentioned here today.

Thank you, Sara, for bringing us Mike and Morley this afternoon. This was great.

Morley and Michael, I wish I’d had the chance to read your book BEFORE you got here, but it’s moved to the top of my “to read” stack. Thanks for coming by today!

Yes, this is very sad coupled with some colleges that make testing optional but are also very expensive.

any “hot” rhetoric, tends to turn Millennials off. And MoveOn, God love’em, is a very hot approach. Emails not social networks. Us vs. them. You know it isn’t written for or by Millennials. Again, See MyBarackObama.com for what politics of the future will look like. All about social networks and self-organization. The end of high paid TV media consultant. (the very latest, Mark Penn, just exited stage right.) No campaign after Obama’s success this year will ever run a top down, TV oriented campaign just as no one ran a non-TV campaign after Nixon’s in 68. Even on TV, the shift in news channel audiences is clear. Fox is now below half of market vs. CNN/MSNBC for first time in years. And I think it will take Republicans years of losses to figure out how to campaign in this new era–just as it took Dems almost 40 years to figure out TV/idealist era politics.
Morley

Morley, Michael, thank you for stopping by the Lake and spending the afternoon.

Everyone - if you haven’t read the book, there is a link above. Excellent book!!

Sara thank you for Hosting the book salon.

we loved it. Thanks everyone.
Morley

Ian, it’s been truthfully said that the core challenge of liberalism is that we’re constantly trying to find ways to make people’s notions of “we” bigger. At this point, we’re going to have get a global sense of that in order to survive this century — and the Ms may be our last best hope of doing that.

Aye, thank you very much for being here today. Fascinating book salon, one I think everyone enjoyed greatly.

We’re not certain that these same generation cycles exist in quite the same way outside of the Anglo-American countries. This is actually a subject we are interested in studying at some point. The cultures and demographics of other countries are very different than ours. Strauss and Howe only dealt with Anglo-American societies, but when we met with the late Bill Strauss’s wife, she did speak of the familiar generational paradigm as applied to current Russian and American leaders. But, if there were generational cycles in other countries, I am not sure what the impact on our relations with those countries would be. Could go either way, I think.

The end of high paid TV media consultant. (the very latest, Mark Penn, just exited stage right.)

This, I like.

Funny, I wrote an essay once defending nationalism as a solution for making we bigger, even if it excluded folks. I hope you’re right. I just fear the way that being in groups often requires that there be out-groups.

Michael, Morley, and Sara thank you for being here today.

Michael and Morley, thanks again. I hope this won’t be the last time we get to talk.

I’m off soon — am delivering a sermon tomorrow in church on how religion is going to change in the century ahead. Still got a way to go on finishing it…

I agree. Thanks to all, especially Michael and Morley.

Thanks Sara. I enjoyed it very much also. Smart questions and the time flew by. For more information about our book please check www.millennialmakeover.com.

Thank you Sara, Michael and Morley!

Love to see an analysis of China. The current generation is fantastically nationalist — which suggests that they may well be Millennial types as well. That’s potentially dangerous.

Fantastically nationalist, and possessed of tens of millions of young men who will never marry (and thus might as well be cannon fodder). A dangerous combo in any book.

The upside is that most North American kids see themselves more as citizens of the world — and because of their technology, they really are. That gives them the biggest sense of “we” the world has ever seen; and I think that’s going to have some tremendous implications for our ability to solve global problems.

I saw a brief reference today to the Chinese government expressing some concern about their one child policy. It appears that the massive death toll has some raising questions about the policy.

they wont marry cuz they wont have any women cuz they only want male children - who will they marry? just wondering

I find group-think terrifying. Americans are where they are, in most respects, because we are such individuals.

Interesting you should mention Russia as another possible example of this generationally cyclical tendency. Is it possible that it is related to the presence of a frontier territory, or an ethnically mixed society?

Thanks to all of you for coming here and answering (so very thoroughly) our many and diverse questions. I plan to read the book as soon as I can.

Biology 101. Nothing to do with marrying. People do it. People have babies. All the time.

methinks you’ve missed my point……

The combination of the Millennials being afraid of being left alone and communicating primarily through electronic means bothers me. Interacting with other people can be scary but leads to productive relationships and innovative ideas. What I see is almost Cyborg-like. Connected to each other electronically with little deviation from the prescribed norm. That’s scary.

Okay.

Ian Welsh upstairs with a thought-provoking essay on invisible people who make things work for everyone else.

You’re probably correct. But, pointing that out doesn’t help me Get It.
In Communications, 101, it’s incumbant on the speaker to ascess if the listener or hearer gets it, and then adjust.
Just saying.
But, still, you are right. You methinks correctly on that point.

I, DFH, hereby annoint you a DFH!!! Yay!!!

Wow, that sounds like a movie script in the making….kind of reminds me of rogue “pack” males roaming the world sublimating their testosterone.

Oh, yeah…that would be Blackwater!!!!

Are the parents who were shown on teevee crying over their single children, now dead in the earthquake, state-sterilized, do you suppose? Can they even have another child to replace the one that died?

Probably not without the permission of the gov’t. What a lousy system.

i gather i didnt put it in “proper” terms…. my point being that china has a 1child policy either staste imposed or self-imposed and they prefer to have that child be a male… that being the case with few females where are future people to come from? speaking as one with no degrees behind my name…… jus sayin

When I was in China I asked our guide why all the adults were dressed in rather dark colors and the children were wearing bright, beautiful colors. She said to me “our children are our flowers.”

has the policy changed and girls are now desired?

Awww…..:(

I don’t know but we went all over the place, even to a school, and there were as many girls as boys and were they adorable. The children at the school sang for us and they were so sweet.

me hopes that’s the case…..

You put the ball in my court with what you said.
Yo inferred I did not get it.
And, that “Just Sayin’” stuff doesn’t work for me after what you said.
Effective communication is not easy.
I know.

Not sure if there is a generational factor in what the kids were wearing in China, but there was in the US. In our PPT presentation, Morley and I show Time and Newsweek magazine covers taken from issues ten years apart–the former when Gen-Xers were teens and the latter when Millennials were teens. In the older picture, all of the Gen-X teens were dressed in black, none were smiling, and none were looking at any of the others in the pictures. In the newer cover, all of the Millennials were dressed in bright colors, smiling, and toching one another. It surely captured the individualism and pessimism of the X’ers and the optimism and unity of the Millennials.

Juslin,
I apologize if I made this personal.
It just bothers me when people say things that could be interpreted as flippant or perhaps not with the kindest intentions and then add a *g* or “just sayin” to make it okay.
Sometimes people get their feelings hurt.

I think most of the young people in China today dress much like our teens but I was there right before T-Square happened. Fairly long time ago.

In the more remote areas of China it is suspected that infanticide of female newborns is still practiced.

TSF @ 188 - IIRC the government heavily fines couples who have more than one child without government permission. I don’t think they’ve resorted to forced sterilization as a blanket policy, although I don’t doubt it occurs.

i thought i was jus sayin my opinion on what i gatheredis/was policy regarding girls in china…. your feelings were hurt? why - jus curious…..its not that deep for me

completely OT, but hmmmm..

An MI5 agent has resigned after it emerged his prostitute wife engineered the tabloid sting that exposed Max Mosley, the head of motor racing, as having taken part in a sado-masochistic orgy.

‘The agent, who is in his 40s, is understood to have served in the military before joining MI5. He had responsibility for watching al-Qa’eda suspects, Russian spies, crime bosses and drug lords.’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new.....-quit.html

Damn!
When the Brits do scandal, they do it right!
Thanks, jackie!

The real shame of this US generation is that there aren’t enough colleges for them all. We’ve hardly built any in the past 30 years; but as our guests pointed out, there are far more Ms than there were Boomers. Which means competition for spots in college is stiff, even if you can find a way to afford it.

(My daughter got accepted to college in Canada last week. Not the greatest school, but she’s taking a break year to stay home and recover from her IB program. Next year, we try for the big schools.)

We’re going to have to fix our tertiary education system if we’re going to do right by these kids. The fact that more and more college is happening online is one great trend that will help.

I think we won’t build more colleges until we stop building more prisons. It has become a profitable industry and we need to stop that.

The second tier universities in Canada, as I’m sure you’re aware, are much better than the 2nd tier ones in the US. OTOH, the very elite universities in the US give a much bigger boost to one than the 1st tier in Canada. Spent a fair bit of time in three universities - Carleton, York and U of T. Only U of T is considered top tier, but the amount of time you get to spend with profs is much lower and the number of classes taught by grad students much higher. Of the three, I enjoyed York the most, mostly because it was less bureaucratic and because the Profs taught the classes, often marked their own papers and were actually available to students.

My feelings were not hurt over what your opinions about girls in China are.
Not at all.
I was speaking to a form of communication here that is not my favorite.
It’s a Moot Issue at this point.

9/11 questions.
‘The collapse of New York’s World Trade Centre on September 11, 2001 is arguably one of the most well documented events in human history. Less well documented is the controversy over why the buildings fell as they did.

At the time of writing, 357 architectural and engineering professionals have signed a petition which directly challenges the National Institute of Standards & Training’s official finding that the destruction of these massive buildings was caused solely by structural damage from the impact of jet airliners and the resulting fires.’

http://www.blacklistednews.com/view.asp?ID=6581

Great stuff at FDL. Early-half boomer here wondering if Ms could assess geopolitical consequences of something like a US administration suddenly deciding to conquer a tiny nation like Grenada.

Ian, my daughter applied to York’s film school, which is considered the top program in Canada. They take 1 in 17 candidates — she didn’t make it, and we didn’t expect her to.

But Vancouver has a rocking good film program at Capilano University, which is where she’s going this coming year. Next year, she’ll reapply to York, and probably to USC and Chapman (both in SoCal) as well. We expect her to get into Chapman, but probably not the other two.

The cost differences are amazing, though. Cap is going to cost about $7K per year, and she’ll live at home. Saves a lot of money to go to a more expensive school later on.

I’m not sure the local colleges are generally as good as, say, the Cal State system overall, though. SFU is probably in the same league, but I can’t think of any others in western Canada that would match up to San Francisco State or any of its 20-odd siblings.

UBC, on the other hand, is definitely in the same league as any UC campus, and UC (along with U Michigan) defines the top tier of US public universities. I’d put Alberta and Toronto up there, too.

Ooops. I do think the FDL community has many over 50s. We may not have the tech savvy of the youngsters, but we sure have the urge.

I’m sorry I missed the discussion. I am glad that “Generation Jones” issue was raised. I was born in 1959 and I find the early boomers to be a bore and I dearly wish they’d get over arguing about Vietnam.