so

Jane!

VOTE!

and will somebody please stop this goon

News Corp. Nears Deal to Buy Newsday
Tribune Would Receive
Up to $560 Million Cash
And Keep a Small Stake
By MERISSA MARR
April 22, 2008; Page B3

Keep you eye on the delegate count here. Obama needs 377 to reach the magic number and Hillary needs 521.

As of 2 pm 35% of the registered dems in my pct. in sleepy Chester County had voted. 14% of the thugs.

What do you all think about the electoral college argument for Clinton in the general?

13? Is that all? Is this what the slouch toward Bethlehem is like?

she will just nuke em ,if it doesnt go her way”g”

I think the geeky guy on CNN has proved many times that its pretty much impossible for either candidate to get the votes for election without the support of the superdelagates

the electoral vote argument is pretty weak

the popular vote argument isnt bad

in the end the superdelegates should vote for whoever they personally think would make the best president in my opinion

So that would make this the fifth trimester, right?

‘Afternoon, Jane:

A beautiful afternoon here in Pittsburgh, PA.

The polling station is just down the street.

Obama dominates the yard signage on my street, while across the ‘pike’ Clinton reigns …

So, I am going to go out on a limb and engage in wild speculation:

One of them will win.

13? Is that all? Is this what the slouch toward Bethlehem is like?

more like Allentown
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K62DdoFoNeg

A comment at the Sam Wood report linked in another thread says Obamas name is not on some of the ballots. Does anyone think he’s got the cajones to make a stink if this is true?

let us know what % turnout is, for my precinct it was 25% at 11:15, pretty impressive for a primary I must say.

Of course.

I did my part today and did the GOTV phone banking but boy oh boy I am so over this primary. I want to move on to the damn general election already

voting machine problems in Philly? Who could have anticipated…

given that’s Obama territory… and Rendell’s and the mayor’s–who have both worked for Clinton….

Durbin. Clinton cannot beat Obama unless she wins 60% in each of all of the remaining contests.

Did! But I left the AG slot empty because I didn’t research it before hand :(

She’s not going to win 60% in PA and this was one of her strongholds.

But she has vowed to stay in until the michigan and florida situation is resolved.

let’s see, CNN says Clinton needs to win PA by 10%.

Zogby poll says Clinton ahead by 10%

Zogby polls for Murdoch’s Newsmax.

Therefore, Tony Snow just went to work for Fox again.

Hey, that’s the logic BushCo uses….

At least after today we’ll only have to put up with TWO weeks of media hype before North Carolina and Indiana.

First thing we do after the general election is fix the primary system to get rid of all the front-loading. Then we ditch the super delegates.

Maybe, but LHP mentioned 2 threads ago that Philly has had voting irregularities/problems for years.

FunnyD

Yes. I don’t see her quitting, because she doesn’t want to appear to be a “quitter”…

Be it resolved that the Clintons (plural) have gotten on my last nerve.

As to the 15% of voters who think that Obama is Muslim…it’s stuff like this that is put out by talk-radio that encourages that bulldada.

Armstrong & Getty in Sacramento suggest that Obama is Muslim

…and get this…they think that drinking beer is “a Muslim thing”!

These guys claim to be the largest rated talk show in Northern California….Ugh!

well, there’s pulling back gracefully or there’s political suicide if she chooses to take the party down with her. I don’t see her pulling out gracefully but I’d love to be surprised.

Inevitability is a dangerous concept to buy into. It wasn’t good for Clinton early on and it hasn’t been good for Obama of late.

I’m working up to 2 hours of yoga to deal with the negative energy. I might be up to three by the time this primary is over.

They’ve ground mine clean off…

Perhaps that 15% will think twice about casting a vote for Obama at our polling place were they offer you a “I’ve voted” flag sticker before you get to the ballot.

accept that in his case, the numbers are in his favor and not hers.

I’ve been doing one hour…same reasons…I get terrible tension…all over…especially in my jaw, neck and shoulders…

Is it working out for you?

I find that after a really good practice, I need a nap *g*

ALWAYS, the feds are monitoring the election in Philadelphia this year.

“I think a win is a win. Maybe I’m old fashioned about that,” [hillary] told reporters.

Of course, it’s not a win if Obama won past primaries/caucuses, but never mind.

Ain’t that the troot.

speakin’ of “troots” [unison groan permitted now…] I’m pluggin’ the Nature Conservancy’s Plant a Billion Trees campaign. They offer a really cool widget at their website to add to the wee websites so many of us have…just in case you need something to distract you for a couple minutes from the Thrilla in Phila.

A good cause, a way to seed a healthier environment.

It definitely helps a lot…

OT but interesting: Obama Website Hacked - redirects to Clinton Website. (Includes a preview ad, sorry.)

Quick, get Dick Blumenthal on the case! You’ll get your result somewhere around 2010. (still pissed!)

Good link to a super smashdown of ABC and it’s fluffery.

Electro nonick voter fraud…it was easy in O H I O and presumably in Pa also. Easy 10%.

True, he has a decided advantage; however, his campaign has lost its edge to some degree over the last month. Last night’s rally in Pittsburg is the first time in a long time that I have seen him at his remarkable best.

cool…we just pulled up the ‘lawn’ in the back and are going to plant a native yard (drought resistant) and thanks to Suzanne, doing the square foot gardening

A comment at the Sam Wood report linked in another thread says Obamas name is not on some of the ballots. Does anyone think he’s got the cajones to make a stink if this is true?

If it turns out that this is true, and there is widespread vote fraud in PA, then it appears that voter turnout will mean nothing! It would also mean that Obama was right when he said that Hillary learned all the wrong things from the Rethugs and has adopted all their tactics, making her not part of the solution, but part of the problem.

I suggest that if the voting process can be so easily corrupted and disrupted in the primary, one must assume it will be just as easy for the Rethugs to steal the election in the fall.

lost its edge? how so? I think that the 35,000 that showed up Friday night to see him kind of counters the idea that his campaign is waning. But you are entitled to call it as you see it *g*

Be it resolved that the Clintons (plural) have gotten on my last nerve.

Ditto! And I used to be a big fan!

must have happened earlier?

Cool! I’ve been gradually getting rid of my back lawn one 4×4 foot bed at a time…

For those that are polling obsessed head over to Pollster to see all of their take on the PA Primary polls. The ones cited by Jane above are actually pretty unrepresentative and some of those (ARG) show that the race is actually tightening after looking at the trend.

Suggestions- look at trends within the same polls. Every poll has different methods for guesstimating who will turn out to vote based on prior Primary or General Election turnouts in those groups. They then take those factors (age, race, gender, education individually or combined) to create a predictive algorithm. If certain groups turn out at a far higher level than those predictors the results may vary strongly from the “poll” results. In addition some polls (ARG, Survey USA) “push” respondants to state a preference harder than others. Thus the “undecideds” may be small in these surveys, and much larger in others. But some of these “decideds” may actually be weak and only leaning at that moment.

My prediction is that Obama will get within about 3-7%…maybe on the high end…partially because Obama’s team decided not to pay local politicians and street organizers in Philly $$$ to disperse to get out the vote groups, fearing it would be pocketed. Obama said his campaign was volunteer based for that aspect of things and that $$$ had to be fully accounted for. That’s not “tradition” in Pennsylvania politics, apparently…and many organizers said they wouldn’t support him unless the money came their way.

Wobbly
You didn’t say earlier what kind of response you were getting from your calls - want to share?

A comment at the Sam Wood report linked in another thread says Obamas name is not on some of the ballots. Does anyone think he’s got the cajones to make a stink if this is true?

It’s a clear violation of the law. I’d bet he would…how could this even happen?

Jane, did you see the AP story that McCain has decided to go with public financing. Did we do that with our petition? God, that would be fantastic!

But she has vowed to stay in until the michigan and florida situation is resolved.

It’s been resolved! They were told they would not be able to vote in the first round at the convention. OH, sorry, you meant resolved to her satisfaction in her favor.

I’ll take Hillary by 10 if that square is still available.

Vows are meant to be spun in the world of the Clintons.

Cool! I’ve been gradually getting rid of my back lawn one 4×4 foot bed at a time…

Did you find a spot for your peppers?
I once used a lot of hot peppers in the rock garden, for show, and then at the end of the season I strung the peppers on fishing line (I sure wish I had taken my contact lens out first)

Well he was pretty hot in the “dust-off” speech after the Debate, too. And I’ve heard that many who’ve seen him over the last couple of weeks say they thought he was a phenomenal speaker when they heard him. I think that his speeches aren’t getting as much exposure now, simply because all candidates do a set of standard stump speeches after a while.

First thing we do after the general election is fix the primary system to get rid of all the front-loading. Then we ditch the super delegates.

Uh uh…first thing we do is require voting machines with a paper trail! Then those other two things, then get rid of the electoral college and go with a popular one man, one vote.

Vows are meant to be spun in the world of the Clintons.

That’s why I say she’s part of the problem; not part of the solution!

polling has been for the shits.
we will know soon. it is always hardest for reporters and other observers on election day when there is nothing to do but wait.
for campaigns, it is a big work day.

OT: Senator Clinton, what would you do as president if Israel launched an unprovoked nuclear attack against Iran?

Clinton wins by 10+ then it looks like it’s going to the convention. It’s beginning to look like a re-run of 1968. Now the Republicans have the corporate media in their pocket to help sway, i.e. manipulate, Independents. A fractured Democratic Party increases the likelihood of a McCain victory but I’m sure Hillary already knows that.

“I think a win is a win. Maybe I’m old fashioned about that,” [hillary] told reporters.”

Of course, it’s not a win if Obama won past primaries/caucuses, but never mind.

LOL! And more of them, with more delegates won, and (in spite of the fact that many were caucuses) with more actual votes. But “a win is ONE win”. Pity that it may not earn many more delegates or actual votes to cut into Obamas lead.

Of course, maybe she’s playing by “Republican Rules”.

Not to add to the confusion, but it appears that the ‘ballot’ in question is actually a sample ‘ballot’ supplied by the Democratic Party of PA, who support HRC.

Its purpose is apparently that confused voters could take it into the booth (while they change into their super-hero tights) so they don’t get things backward …

He’s been good in all the speeches I’ve seen this weekend. I watched one on CSPAN, he was in a city high school, so there were a lot of young people, maybe not even old enough to vote; but they were excited and he seemed charged up.

Frankly I don’t know how anyone can keep up with the campaign schedule. So right now, McCain is rested when we see him, but once he has to start being on almost 24 hours a day, I think we will see his temper show.

Link to a very good analysis of the latests Penn polling- bottom line seems to be—the trend is murky.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/.....rap_up.php

There has been a correlation between decreases in the undecideds and increases in Clinton’s total- but that trend has disappeared recently.

I’ll stick to Hillary by ten- but looks as if it could go anywhere at this point.

Oh, I’m sorry. I must have missed the question earlier *g*
it was all positive in my book because everyone was going to get out to vote. The first list I had was roughly all obama (philly) but the next 2 lists had a majority of hillary supporters or split households and quite a few undecideds of which I flipped at least 3 *g*.

If Clinton claims victory (which to her is like claiming “success” in Iraq) then look for a battle of biblical proportion (dogs and cats living together, you know real Old-Testament stuff**) going on until June 3rd or at least the convention.

Her sense of entitlement to the presidency will ultimately hand this election to McVain, because she’s an egotistical idiot (Umbrella of Deterrance! … what is this the Mary Poppins Middle East Strategery now?) and just knows she’s the annointed one to lead us into the NeoCon era of Candy and Flowers.

Arrrrgh.

** apologies to Bill Murray, from Ghostbusters

oye vay

It’s still unclear whether the prolonged primary will hurt the dems in the fall.

I suspect that it won’t matter in the end. The upside is that a lot of the negatives of the dem candidate will be old news by the convention and much more difficult for McBush to make hay with.

So right now, McCain is rested when we see him, but once he has to start being on almost 24 hours a day, I think we will see his temper show.

Don’t wake him up for his Anger Management Class, it really pisses him off! You might catch a flying fruit cup on the back of your neck…

“let’s wait and see what happens”

Quoted from the Clintons when awaiting to see whether Spitzer would resign.

Thanks for the answer and for doing the hard work. :)

Fine. The first FOUR things we do after the election…

Any candidate certainly has a right to keep fighting until the convention until the opponent locks up enough votes to win the thing. That has not happened yet.

And it is our job to provoke that temper every chance we get. We need a battalion of Mike Starks on the job 24/7.

Two marine killed today in Iraq by a car bomber. So sad. When is enough enough?

not if it goes to the convention (end of august) and the election is in early november …that gives us a whopping 9 weeks to unite the party and cmpaign against mccain? that won’t hurt us alright

Candy Crowley puttin’ lead foot in mouth as usual on CNN:

meanwhile back on the reservation…. reservation, excuse me? Blithe oblivion to the ultimate racism/oppression of this country’s history.

and “the Clinton campaign believes Obama should have won PA because of the money he spent….” believes? excuse me….the Clinton campaign team spins. Believing? Not so much

If Clinton claims victory

Clinton will claim victory, no matter how much spinning is required.

Re Mary Poppins…I think Hil’s more a Good Girl Gone Bad kinda gal:

When the sun shine
We’ll shine together
Told you i’ll be here forever
Said I’ll always be your friend
Took an oath I’ma stick it out till the end
Now that it’s raining more then ever
Know that we’ll still have each other
You can stand under my umbrella
You can stand under my umbrella
(Ella ella eh eh eh)

i am actually weird in that I like phone banking. I haven’t had a bad experience yet though I have run into the pledge of allegiance and muslim lie. I informed them otherwise (that is was the star spangled banner and that he is christian) and then start talking to them about issues that concern them.

Don’t wake him up for his Anger Management Class, it really pisses him off! You might catch a flying fruit cup on the back of your neck…

while he burns my ears with words that shock the conscience

Rihanna singin’ ME Strategery

Any candidate certainly has a right to keep fighting until the convention until the opponent locks up enough votes to win the thing. That has not happened yet.

here here, let the voters decide.

Of course, it’s not a win if Obama won past primaries/caucuses, but never mind.

Didn’t she say that in TX, too? I wonder if she’s still says it now that he is the actual winner in TX?

I’d do door to door over phone banking any day. Ask Scarecrow, Kathryn and Selise. We were all working for Ned and much preferred the face to face.

No, the “dust-off” speech was not one of his better moments. In fact, it was probably his worst moment in the campaign.
He has run a remarkable campaign that has beautifully dispalyed his gifts as a politician, but he hit a bad note in that speech. I frankly found it a bit offensive.

here here, let the voters decide.

The modern version is “let the voting machines decide”.

Don’t forget to juxta position Bush calling “cheap shot” when someone confronted HIM with the truth during his campaign, with McCain’s cries of “cheap shot”.

I think it’s a cheap shot to say “cheap shot” when someone confronts you with an inconvenient truth. Deal with it.

I feel the same way. Hated phoning but loved the door to door. It all has to be done though.

I would like that as well but that will eave us with 9 WEEKS to campaign against McCain.

Had I been able to do that, I would have loved it but being here in Cali….*sigh*

Along those lines, I meant to mention that when I logged in to my computer this morning, my home page had a green background instead of my normal choice of a blue background. And has anyone seen what google did on their website in honor of earth day?

yes, very cool

And this gem from the Palmetto State

kONESVILLE, S.C. — The sign in front of a small church in a small town is causing a big controversy in Jonesville, S.C.
Pastor Roger Byrd said that he just wanted to get people thinking. So last Thursday, he put a new message on the sign at the Jonesville Church of God.
It reads: “Obama, Osama, hmm, are they brothers?”

Byrd said that the message wasn’t meant to be racial or political.
“It’s simply to cause people to realize and to see what possibly could happen if we were to get someone in there that does not believe in Jesus Christ,” he said.

I would like that as well but that will eave us with 9 WEEKS to campaign against McCain.

It’s so crabby it won’t take nine weeks to run him into the ground, even the his own Republicans don’t really like him.

Along those lines, I meant to mention that when I logged in to my computer this morning, my home page had a green background instead of my normal choice of a blue background. And has anyone seen what google did on their website in honor of earth day?

yes, it’s lovely

Pastor Byrd’s got to come up with a better lie than that.

It is amazing how ‘right’eous some ‘Christians’ are.

I read the article…very ‘christian’ of the pastor. lots of compassion and love. I’m sure jesus must be proud

I saw a “blog” post stating it “wasn’t political” but went on to say beware of folowing false prophets and dangerous leaders like Oprah and Obama. Those were the only two leaders mentioned, and basically saying don’t vote for Obama because then you will go to hell. Wow. Just wow.

But it wasn’t political!

Bush only pretends to believe so having someone in there that does not believe in Jesus Christ seems much better.

Maybe your comfortable with the idea of Mccain having a 4 month start on defining who he is and writing his own political history but i’m not. We need to start ASAP hitting mccain on his voting record his stance, etc. We need to define who he is.

Nope! Just an exer’cise’ of ‘free’ speech …

Oprah, too? I wonder what they have in common - oh, wait, could it possibly be that they are both brown? Surely, not. /s

After the last primaries in early June we should know who the nominee will be- within a 1% margin of error.

Obama surely has it- but I wouldn’t mind seeing Hillary carry enough delegates into the convention so that just in case Obama gets damaged at the last minute, the superdelagates can correct the situation- that’s what they are there for..

Maybe your comfortable with the idea of Mccain having a 4 month start on defining who he is and writing his own political history but i’m not. We need to start ASAP hitting mccain on his voting record his stance, etc. We need to define who he is.

Oh I don’t think we should wait until then to go after him.

I’d really like to see rank-choice voting used in primaries, as well. Change everyone’s incentives for the better.

It would eliminate the distortions that arise from thinking, “I want to vote for A, but A ‘can’t win,’ so I’ll hold my nose and vote for B inst