Chart Two: Racism and Sexism

[Editor's note: This is the second of a six-part series by Paul Lukasiak on what polling reveals about how Americans will vote in the coming election. Part I gave an overview explaining that "Not just sexism but also racism were major factors in how the 2008 election would play out." -- DN]

Part II: Racism and Sexism: What Happens When the Percentage of Black Voters Increases

There are obvious patterns that emerge when one compares the gender gap to the percentage of Black voters among the electorate, as shown on Chart Two. It is important to keep in mind that the data is weighed to reflect the impact of changes on overall vote totals. (see Note 2).

PLUM LINE (NOTCHED)– The 0% axis. As trend lines go toward the PLUM line, gaps decrease, as trend lines go toward the PLUM line, gaps increase. (In other words, a line that goes down above the PLUM line shows a shrinking gap, a line going down below the PLUM line shows a growing gap.)

DATA POINTS are triangles or other shapes that represent specific data. LINES (except for most instances with the BLACK line) represent “trends” in the data for a particular data series that is the same color as the data points. (See Note 1)

BLACK DATA POINTS/LINE — Black voter % data (and trend line): The actual percentage of Black voters, and the other data is based on these Black voter percentages (all data points are on the line) The BLACK % trend line only varies when the data is sorted differently. In general the closer the data points are to their corresponding line, the more likely that the trend line describes something significant in relation to the variable that was used to sort the data.

chart-2.jpg

BLUE DATA POINTS/LINE – Male gap data and trend: This data/line represents the difference in the male vote when Clinton or Obama is matched against McCain. The BLUE line starts above the (PLUM colored) 0% axis line, meaning that a higher percentage of men preferred Obama to Clinton in states with few Black voters.

Chart Two shows that as the percentage of Black voters increased, the difference in male support for Obama and Clinton decreased, until there was almost no difference.

chart-3.jpgRED DATA POINTS/LINES – Female gap trend. The RED line is below the (PLUM colored) 0% axis line, meaning that fewer women supported Obama than supported Clinton in states with few Black voters.

Chart Two shows a very slight increase (and therefore probably insignificant) in women’s preference for Clinton as the percentage of Black voters increases (the RED line is under the 0% PLUM line, and moves only slightly downward, and away from the PLUM line.)

chart-4.jpg

PINK DATA POINTS/LINE – Gender gap shift trend line: The pink data points and trend line reflect overall differences and changes in male and female preferences as the percentage of Black voters increases. (Technically, it’s a gender gaps shift, rather than compare gender vote percentages, it considers the gender gaps for each candidate.) The farther from the PLUM line the pink line is, the greater the difference in male and female preferences.

The downward slope of the Pink line means than the difference is how men and women would vote decreases substantially as Black voter percentages increases.

chart-5.jpg

ORANGE DATA POINTS/ LINE – White voter shift trend line: The ORANGE data points and trend line represent the impact, and changes in the impact, of the preference of White voters as the percentage of African American voters increases.

• The ORANGE line goes down as the percentage of Black voters go up, indicating that the more Black voters there are, the less inclined White voters are to vote for Obama as opposed to Clinton.

• The line shows that where there are few Black voters, Obama gets more White support than Clinton (the ORANGE line starts above the PLUM line.).

• Where there are a large percentage of Black voters, there is less White support for Obama than for Clinton.

• Although the chart does show it, White support for both Obama and Clinton declines as the percentage of Black voters increases, but the decline in White support for Obama is much more pronounced than the decline for Clinton, which is why the White shift line itself goes downward.

(When looking at the ORANGE line, it is crucial to keep in mind that it reflects “weighed” votes, indicating how changes in the White vote affects overall margins. In other words, to get a 20 point White vote shift in a state with 95% while voters, only about 21% of White voters have to vote differently when Obama, rather than Clinton is matched against McCain. To get that same 20 point White shift in a state that has 75% White voters, 27% of White voters have to vote differently – but the chart reflects only the impact of the change in White voter preference (the 20 point difference) rather than change in the preference itself. The unweighed White shift trend line shows a not-insignificantly sharper decline than what is shown here, indicating a larger difference in White voter behavior. See note 1.)

Next: What Happens When the Gender Gap Shrinks

[Cross-posted at Corrente.]

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