Login HereA new Wall Street Journal/NBC national poll says that the controversy over Jeremiah Wright didn't hurt Obama. Not only has he held against Hillary Clinton (they're in a dead heat at 45% each, as opposed to two weeks ago when Clinton was 47% to his 43%), but his numbers relative to McCain haven't moved (he's 42% to McCain's 44%, virtually the same as in the previous poll).
If I was some unholy spawn of Lee Atwater crawling out of the Hellmouth and beholding this statistic, I'd be scratching my head and wondering what I was going to do for an encore. That Wright video played in constant rotation on cable news, more people probably witnessed it than saw that kid from Tennessee crying "LEAVE BRITNEY ALOOOOONE!!..." A cooperative media could not possibly given it more exposure, and positioned it to toggle every White American panic button it could. And the result was...nada. Nothing.
The whole media push came straight out of the GOP playbook for November, and it barely registered. If you'd asked me yesterday I would have said the odds for the fall were 60% McCain, 35% Obama, 5% Clinton. But Obama stood up to the Wright attacks well, so I'm putting it today at 50% McCain, 45% Obama, 5% Clinton (and that 5% is just factoring in wildcard stuff, I don't really think there's any shot at the nomination that can be seen from here, but having been through other elections -- you just never know.)
On his own merits, I don't think there's any doubt Obama is the strongest candidate in the race. But he doesn't have McCain's leg up in the media, and the unquestioning way that the country accepts the MSM's narratives -- even, as this race has proven, much of the blogosphere -- is going to continue to be a problem that favors McCain. Look at the insane advantage the Democrats have when it comes to primary turnout, and yet the national polls still show McCain in the lead. The GOP may not have as easy a time as they anticipated jacking up Obama's negatives, but it's going to be awfully hard to punch holes in McCain's media armour as well.
When it comes to anything negative about St. John the Divine, the mascara of the barbecue set just starts a-runnin'. They just dooooon't want to hear it.
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Jane!
Is realilty starting to trump the M$M?
So?
And I did read before commenting!
Obama is still struggling against the tide to get past identity politics, which the media, the Republicans, and HRC keep trying to push on him. I hope he succeeds in getting past the destructive politics of identity.
Bob in HI
This is wonderful news. Means that people aren’t just buying the spin! Everybody’s had enough. Well, not everybody…
That’s what I’m struggling with here. It seems like they started November tactics awfully early. What do they have left? Rezko attacks have gone nowhere and now Wright attacks have gone nowhere.
Also, I think the biggest chink in McCain’s media armor will come from the enhanced violence in Iraq. He has been the symbol of the surge working. We have to make him the symbol of what a fiction the surge really was.
Me to Bob, for our nation, its people, and the world! I’ve had it with “corpo-aristocrats,” & constitutional usurpations, under the color of law!!!
Especially when we consider the ‘alternative’.
But, wonder of wonders, ‘people’ seem to be ‘getting it’.
Maybe, if we put our minds (hearts, souls) and some effort into ‘it’ we could improve a wee bit on Obama’s ‘numbers’ for the ‘fall’ of American fascism.
Whaddaya think?
that was in response to bobsshacht @ 4
I do not get worked up about attacks on Obama by Hillary and surrogates, since they are just a tune-up bout for what I am sure will be the unprecedentedly vile, slimy and overtly racist Republican campaign to come.
I just do not want Hillary to say anything so bad that she cannot credibly come back and support Obama and bring her voters with her.
I like the idea of reality trumping the MSM.
From CNN:
Perhaps the security plan needs a new name?
saw Devilstower over at Big Orange making this point yesterday - I love, love, love that Obama spoke to his audience like they had a brain and these numbers validate it’s the right way to go - saw him take the same tact on the teevee this morning wrt Econ/subPrime (and I don’t necessarily agree w/him - just really liked that he spoke respectfully to grown ups)
for the cynics among us who would say most folks don’t pay attention - 3 Million people have listened to the speech online
btw, college girl just asked why pundits turn everything in to American Idol :D
Very, very nice post, Jane. But I won’t be happy until I see folks saying and doing what Obama said:
I think Obama intends to govern in the manner Christy cited this morning borrowed from Digby:
If anyone has any doubt about TradMed being in the tank for McCain, check out Joke Line’s adulatory review of St John’s craptastic, and self-plagiarizing, foreign policy speech.
What, you want me to link Joke Line? Okay.
He sez McCain put more distance between himself and Bush than there is between Bush and the two Democrats. Really.
It’s a long way to November — be ever vigilant.
Hello cbl.
This is good news…very good news. The GOP attack machine was all loaded up for Hillary, but on Obama they’ve got almost nothing. Heck, the Rev Wright speech was YEARS ago.
They’re going to have to attack Obama on the issues…which is right where McBush is the weakest.
I can’t wait for the first McBush/Obama debate. If McBush is smart, he’ll avoid going head to head on live TV.
But the GOP hasn’t given up on Wright yet. Heck, it’s really all they’ve got. My GOP friends LOVE watching the Wright speech and saying how that proves that Obama is unfit. But at least it’s better than the whispers reminding us that Obama is black and has an islamic sounding name.
Boxturtle (MSM washes reality down with Koolaid)
The struggle may be to not have the positive energy of Obi’s message sabotaged at the polls, or caging. All this new energy has to turn into real votes and the dems need to stop fighting and work on getting them a good congress for the next term when W’s shit hits the fan.
We are only getting a glimpse of the hell to come and this is going to need some smart people working together to put humpty dumpty back together again.
I’ve got an idea for Lee’s grandchildren. Let’s have them discover by random chance that three CongressCritters who opposed going to war in Iraq made a legal trip to the Middle East in 2002. Let’s also have them discover, by accident and years later, that a gnome in the bowels of the State Dept had later put the charity that legally paid for that trip into a box newly labeled as “al Qaeda supporters”. For good measure, let’s publicize that via our ever so discrete DOJ.
I’ll bet we could get a news cycle or two’s distraction from our failed war and unauthorized long-term military commitments to the failed Iraqi state. Maybe even distract from our new and deadly campaign in Basra. We might get lucky and release it on the day the hated NYTimes tells everybody about what a cock up we’ve made of military contracting in Afghanistan and Iraq (never mind our cock ups over IT contracting for the White House “communications” system).
(h/t TPM Muckraker)
Yes how much more of America’s resources will be spent to secure the next Jurassic oil slick beneath Al-Anbar’s vast sands in close proximity to the Trans Saudi Oil Pipeline, just Saudi side of the Iraq/Saudi border!!!
Bush/McCain’s proposed hundred year war to protect American oil(”speculation”) ”
interests” whores, opposed to a war on energy, to minimize the wealth and vast “fortunes” sent to foreign lands, through middlemen adding to our historic and massive negative balance of trade!!!!natural selection corporate treason and executive oil!!!!!!!
hello baby, how’s your day ?
Images of mass swooning and smelling salts comes to mind
I think Obama is going to actually change the media somewhat. Not overnight and nothing noticeable right away. But a more perfect union was anti-sound bite straight talk [sic] and just as the rise of you tube and embedded video online has gone against the grain of MSM-sired ADD, Obama is the candidate for changing the way we hear the news and decide who to elect. And that’s true with regard to the campaign’s organizing, fundraising, etc.
Good Morning, Jane -
I love the Richard Avedon iconesque photo and new look, Jane. Like you, it’s a bold statement.
I am really done with the Democratic slugging along championship fight. It is like watching two people in the ring who have beaten each other’s brains out, disfigured their faces, ripped out their eyes and are now hacking each other up. It’s moved from debate to grotesque mutilation.
In the mean time McCain is making some serious head roads into the independent voter side. For the third time I listened to his speech in LA and each time I glean another talking point that was owned by Democrats. Now McCain owns them. It sounds sensible until you listen to all his rhetoric and observe all the external signs.
Between McCains moderation points he makes the same old policy statements about the Palestinian Israeli conflict. No change there. He states that the primary purpose of the president is to protect the American people and keep America safe. No mention of his oath of office to uphold and protect the Constitution.
There were numerous such statements planted between the more moderate comments. These statements need to be redlined. Here is lies his continued NeoCon policies. On the external front, AEI is given dominant play as a think tank. They are in the driver’s seat in greater force.
I think We the People must get in there and end this fight among Democrats over who will be in power and return to important issues.
Hey you two … get a room ! *g*
McCain has been endorsed by Nancy Reagan and will support federal financing of stem cell research and other pioneering medical research that BushCo have stopped … the right is not going to be happy …
Speaking as one who lives in Kansas City, one of the hotbeds of barbecue country, let me say that McCain gives barbecue a very bad name.
What no one seems to be getting in the McCain versus hypothetical dem is that today the dems are in a very nasty battle. Alot of Obama supporters today will say they are voting for McCain in a Obama/McCain matchup and the same would be true for Clinton supporters in a Obama/McCain mathchup. My guess is that at the very least half of these people will eventually come to their sences and not vote against their best interest. If you add these percentages to the current dead even polls you would find both Clinton and Obama way out in front of McInsane.
They already hate him, just see him as the lesser evil. But that will play WELL with a bunch of folks in the middle. McBush is being smart, while the Dems are busy busting each others chops he’s out pandering for votes from the middle.
Boxturtle (Pretty effectively, too. Dang it)
It is an interesting numbers game, isn’t it? I’m sure the Repugs have calculated who will give them the greatest mileage, moderate independents or ultra conservatives. The religious right are bickering among themselves these days and splintering up. My, my!
Well the Clinton sideshow may not leave Obama enough time after the break, but really all that needs to be said is do you want 4 more years of Republican misrule over and over and over and over. John Mc Cain may be a groovy guy in so far as MSM is concerned but the problems the nation is facing are too big, too real for the electorate to be put off about it. It may well be, that of course, this nomination battle that has turned seriously ugly may well undermine the national trust in Obama and exacerbate the already pre-existing anti Clinton virulence, but I don’t think main stream media is the problem so much as the mire Dems are currently stuck in clouds their ability to say point blank to the public–you like the last eight years? a disaster movie, was it not? want more?
understanding the nature of this beast, it’s genesis and application is vital to dealing with it -
from the 2 excerpts I’ve read, this Satuday’s Book Salon authors posit the most plausible explanation I’ve seen to date - really, can not wait !
Let’s bake lots of pies for them to throw at each other … *g*
It’s like they have a salad shooter filled with negative angles they keep blasting away with to see what sticks and so far, zip, nada, nothing.
Pretty soon we will see exactly what constitutes a Hail Mary pass in Rove’s playbook.
they’re already unhappy - and although many of the more public ones are currently ‘making nice’ they’ve left tons of poisoned bread crumbs about him all over the toobz and this ol dfh can’t wait to use them
My new favorite phrase:
“the mascara of the barbecue”
I am going to us it lots.
he probably calls it ‘maverick’ or ’straight talk’ bbq
Well said!
On the other foot:
Afta da contendas get done bashin’ each udderly ridiculous, we shall scrape duh ‘remains’ tagedder and dutifully proclaim,’Dis hard-fought struggle done producellated da bestest outcome possumble…
That is, if we’re still speakin’ to each othah (ya bumz…)
Yep! We coulda but we didna …
See the future?
Naw, don’t see nuthin’ …
McCain’s armor is like his debating skills … puffed up but weak at its core … I give Obama 2 debates/rounds to knock him out …
wow, new post came up fast. think there was a worry about possible poo flinging?
Welcome aboard, Jane!
Take this to the bank for collateral: Whomever the Democrats finally nominate will hand John McSame his butt in November. It isn’t 50:45:5, at all. And yes, I have seen the polls. When the Democratic candidate is finally named and the real campaigning begins, Barack Obama will put John McSame where he belongs, doing adds for Viagra with his old buddy from Kansas…..IF he can remember his lines.
Gug
What they are doing is sowing discontent among various minority groups against Obama (You can’t trust those people).
I had a long chat with some New Yorkers this weekend and felt sick to my stomach that this is working …
“ads,” not “adds.” One gets so excited.
G
Poo?
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
Couldn’t be, could it?
Good day, Wobbly. Always good to ’see’ ya!
Chris Matthews and three of his talking heads chatted last night about why the press likes McCain so much. Matthews concluded, and the others all grinned and nodded, that it was because McCain realized that it was all sort of a game. They all agreed that the couldn’t like teh serious campaigners who were more formal and tried to explain policy to them.
Matthews mentioned that, for a while, McCain was kind of stand-offish, or cool toward the press, because the far right and Republican powers that be were suspicious of this relationship. They all agreed that he was starting to loosen up and come back to them. None of them seemed to think therewas anything wrong with this relationship.
state of denial…
are you living in a blue state, a red state or… a state of denial
something for your mp3 players
http://aud1.kpfa.org/data/20080326-Wed1300.mp3
Jane Hamsher:
The inevitable encore will be to tell important donors that he and/or his foreign policy people are unreliable on Israel. It’s a free country, so they’re free to put their mouths and money where they want, but that’s Clinton’s last card to play.
What will be interesting to see, after Obama’s smooth recovery from the Rev. Wright flap, is how Hillary handles the Tuszla scandal. Could be a useful compare/contrast.
Did anybody notice that during Obama’s speech….both CNN and MSNBC lost feed of the speech at a point where it seemed like he was about to take a potshot at McLobby….and then they both got it back at almost the same time..
I wonder what he said during the blackout.
I hate MSNBC and CNN….they will be the death of this nation if they don’t stop skewing this election. It just makes me sick.
I’m wrong…Nevermind…disregard…
Frankly, I do not think that the republican attack machine has really taken off on the Rev. Wright affair. They have no cause to use this as yet, and are probably just biding their time. But if Obama becomes the nominee the gloves will certainly come off. I can’t imagine how this connection will not irretrievably hurt Obama’s chances in the general election.