hiya Pach!

Well, even if the Republicans don’t have FISA, they can still run on Iraq and the economy. *g*

Love the graphic!!!

now to read.

You’d have to take it into Jay’s office and demonstrate its relevance using his own body. Otherwise he can’t tell his elbow from those other locations.

It’s one from the vault.

I made it for one of my first posts here almost exactly two years ago.

La plus ca change. . .

You mean little’s changed on the Intelligence Committee since Democrats gained the majority? Where’s Phase II, by the way?

And if Jello Jay’s still looking for his balls, that graphic won’t help — they are in a glass jar on Cheney’s desk.

Ah, Phase II.

You are a connoisseur of failure.

(Okay, why am I lapsing into French all of a sudden?)

I sent Jay the same thing I sent the Blu Dogs:

I was dismayed to learn that you are caucusing against your Oath of Office, the Constitution and individuals in congress that are standing for the Rule of Law.

FISA is solid law. Modernization is smoke screen to provide the Bush Administration with legal cover while it enjoys virtually no oversight from Congress.

As you should know, Executive overreach is balanced by a Congress that stands with the people.

Are you going to stand with the Unitary Executive or with the The People?

Thank you for your time and work on this matter of great importance.

Davis said the issues are not getting political traction now, but they could before November.

The question being: to what depths are the republics willing to go to insure that traction occurs?

‘Bout time for a major terra alert…or worse, ain’t it? :-(

and the jello keeps wiggling!

OT– Michelle Obama is on C-Span right now. Wow. I love her.

The question being: to what depths are the republics willing to go to insure that traction occurs?

‘Bout time for a major terra alert…or worse, ain’t it? :-(

I’d not be surprised to see an “October Surprise.”

maybe people are waking up?

Don’t forget the show trials.

I’m interested in WHY the issues aren’t getting political traction. Are people just exhausted and worried about the economy? Or is the jello rhetoric finally failing? (I think I know the answer, but heck, I’ve been reading economic stuff all weekend so thought I’d peek back over the fence into politics…)

Have you heard anything recently from AK?

Davis said the issues are not getting political traction now, but they could before November.

I’m torn I want the FISA laws gone, but I want the GOP to keep wasting more time and money on this issue. After all what happens if because the GOP keeps fighting us on this issue the issue gets traction with the American people?
But the American people side with us!

Think the terror alerts won’t work anymore. W’s cried “wolf” too often.

They all know they’re in for an old-fashioned ass-kicking, ****IF**** HRC accepts the inevitable and either accepts the VP nod, or backs out and starts backing the next democratic POTUS, Barack Obama.

She cannot win a plurality of the pledged delegates, and if the “Super-delegates” doa back-room deal, it will destroy the party. So HRC’s choices are clear – achieve Karl Rove’s goal (a permanent republican majority, which I suspects she wants), or save the party by abandoning her ego and embracing the future.

She’s going to go for door number one, Monty.

If she does, get used to saying “President McCain.”

I might add that even our most brainwashed rethug friends and business associates no longer defend the prez (duh) or even the rethugs (more interesting), so…

I have indeed. Still in San Antonio. Working many hours. Dad in and out of the hospital and needing much care.

You are a connoisseur of failure.

(Okay, why am I lapsing into French all of a sudden?)

Actually the word in modern French is connaisseur.

That’s what worries me — he and Cheney might be tempted to let another terror attack through.

Think the credibility has finally been eaten thru on every subject under the sun.

An example of one: my hairdresser (a 70-year-old straight Jewish man), who’s pretty liberal on most subjects, expressed concern about Iran & nukes. I ran thru the whole analytical issue about why not to worry, noticing in the mirror that he never stopped frowning. Finally I said: Why would you believe anything W has said? He’s lied about everything else, so why would you believe him on Iran? I saw that he popped a big grin.

No going there tonight. My tin foil hat’s in for repairs.

The GOP should realize that since Bush has been wrong about everything during his presidency (the economy, the war, we will be welcomed with flowers, etc) that having Bush stump for an issue might have the reverse effect.
In which case they do not want this issue being on voters minds in November.
The Blue Dogs however should be afraid, very afraid.

That’s what worries me — he and Cheney might be tempted to let another terror attack through.

It’s the ultimate in cop outs. They take credit for new attack and if there is one, they say they weren’t given all the authority they needed to forestall it. In other words, it is always good if you are Republican.

Who is dong GOP polling on this issue Mark Penn?

Now that is one great graphic! A keeper!!

The GOP should realize that since Bush has been wrong about everything during his presidency (the economy, the war, we will be welcomed with flowers, etc) that having Bush stump for an issue might have the reverse effect.

Being catastrophically wrong about everything has had no effect on the media’s coverage of Bush or resulted in a serious re-evaluation of his policies.

Oops that should read: It’s the ultimate in cop outs. They take credit for no new attack and if there is one, they say they weren’t given all the authority they needed to forestall it. In other words, it is always good if you are Republican.

I just came back from a two-day Loggers meeting. At no time did they mention Bush. Some of the speakers even had just mild criticisms of Gov. Gregoire and they even had to say that she did a good job on the Big Wind disaster. We aren’t talking folks that are going to be voting for Democrats in November.

Maybe we should step up our advertising on this issue a notch build some more public support and watch the GOP refuse to debate or schedule a vote on FISA.

Would that it were so but what’s that quote about never underestimating the IQ of the American public?

Read an article (probably GA origin) describing some people’s reactions who were in the area where the tornado hit; quite a few of them mentioned first thinking it was a terraist’s attack. If that’s become the initial reaction among the American public, we are in deep ca-ca.

I was surprised by those “terrorism?” reactions as well, but then I remembered that Atlanta had home-grown terrorism long before 911 — at the Olympics. Perhaps that excuses the reaction?

True but newspaper stocks have been in decline ever since Bush got in office despite 2 wars going on. The American people disapprove of this war by 70% despite the news coverage. Now imagine what those numbers would be if the “Fairness Doctrine ” were back and we broke up the big media conglomerates.

She is blowin’ me away…

Best Stump speech I’ve seen since I was at a Clinton Rally in ‘92 !!!

I’d vote for her for President…

LOL! You and Pach are in awfully fine form today – bless ‘ya great hearts!

Wasn’t in NYC when crane collapsed (a few blocks from my apt bldg), but didn’t see any mention of terror attacks. NYCers are just more reasonable than folks elsewhere, I guess. *g*

Bush is not carrying loggers in WA then just who is supporting him?

Maybe Davis could contact his senators, JOHN Warner and Jim Webb and tell them that Virginian prefer Madison and Mason to Bush.

BTW, last I saw it, W’s approval was 19%. despite media coverage & stoopid people. That is important.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/20/19-percent-3/

Maybe Christie could run for Senator from W VA

Who are Bush’s supporters do they only show their faces on TV or write comments on Right wing blogs? Pollsters say they exist but I’m not so sure they do even at 20%?

Love the graphic too, Pach! Hysterical.

So let me see if I have this straight…

The republicans are now figuring out that FISA is an important issue. Uh huh. Well, they’ve obviously haven’t thought long and hard as to why Georgie is butting heads with anyone who does NOT want immunity for the telecoms, because if they did think it through, they would come to realize immunity for the telecoms is immunity for Bush from being impeached, because Georgie knows both broke the law to spy on Americans!

BTW, last I saw it, W’s approval was 19%. despite media coverage & stoopid people. That is important.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/20/19-percent-3/
reply

Dang made my comment useless still its good news:)

Very good point.

eCAHN @39 -

Is your home OK? Don’t know about the “reasonable” part but, best I can tell, “fearless” and “street smart” might be two good descriptions. *g*

Jello Jay perfect. If they won’t impeach him, why not humiliate him on a regular basis. Republicans should take this opportunity to save themselves and endorse an effort to end the bad work of the Shrub administration. It is bad enough Republicans follow along but what is up with Democrats who do. There is no reason.

Ta. Had no idea he was back in the States. Please give him my love and best wishes when next you speak; I miss him greatly at the Lake.

One wonders how much money the Jello family has invested in the Telcos?

I don’t live in their districts anymore, but I gave ol’ Jerry McNerney and Dennis (sometimes the Menace) Cardoza some thanks for their FISA votes. McNerney angered many progressives (including me, though I may not be a very liberal superprogressive, but I will include myself just for ducks for the purposes of this comment) with some of his quirks, and some of his positions, but he came out very strong against the GOP scaremongering on FISA, and voted the right way. Cardozavoted the right way too. Even though he is an official Blue Dog, he didn’t sign the unofficial quasi Blue Dog letter that signaled a cave-in, and I was glad to see he was on the right side.

Me too. It was wonderful to have him here last summer. Say hi for me?

I like the high-toned graphic too. Is that a suggestion for effective letters to dilatory and refractory Democratic officials? I will download it for future use. Thanks.

Bush’s approval rating on economics has dropped to 19%. I didn’t think that many people watched the business channel.

The GOP is starting to implode in the north, FISA debate, or not…

There is an open rebellion in the Alaska GOP happening right now. They held their convention in Anchorage Thursday through Saturday.

The popular GOP Governor (85% approval last week, after announcing she’s 7 months pregnant) was involved in an attempt to wrest control of the party from the Corrupt Bastards Club, led by Party Chair Randy Ruedrich, Don Young, Ted Stevens, and the big oil surrogates within the party structure.

Don Young was openly rude during the Governor’s speech that opened the convention. Then her Lieutenant Governor announced he was filing to run against Young, with the Governor at his side.

The war barely came up. The economy wasn’t much of an issue. But the corruption of the AK GOP and distress over Democratic Party inroads in many recent local elections should have the party’s old school pols more worried than they are.

The Governor’s coup attempt failed, but she’s pretty friggin’ tenacious.

Mahalo, another Horton masterpiece! ;-)

Once the corruption becomes public, it’s pretty hard to regain the confidence of the electorate, I would imagine. Believe me this time, even though I’ve stolen from you in the past…

There was a promise he made that, oddly enough, always made me feel a wee tad safer knowing he was around. It’s nice to know he’s back in the States, tho’ not at the Lake.

Isn’t she amazing? Now that’s who i want running for prez.

Bush’s approval rating on economics has dropped to 19%

He’s in full panic mode

… The White House said on Saturday Bush will meet members of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, and a spokeswoman said Bush will get a status report on the markets. …

the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets = Plunge Protection Team

I’m in the country & won’t be back to the city for a few days, but the accident was far enough away that nothing should have happened to my bldg.

PhysioProf’s wife was only a block or two away when it happened. He lives in the same neighborhood & she was on an errand. But they are both safe.

BTW, Cardoza is right in the middle of one of the “Reagan Democrat” and recently Bushite California regions.

It will be interesting to watch the House Democrats in that part of the state. The Central Valley was’Truman Democratic’ back in the day, which from my personal experience with the old-timers meant quite progressive domestically, but very anti-commie and aggressive in foreign affairs, but not to the point of neocon wingnuttiness. I never heard any insane anti-UN or anti-diplomancy stuff. That kind of thing mainly came from little old blue-haired ladies with astro-turf lawns and plastic flowers, and clear plastic covers over all their furniture who thought FDR was a communist and plotted Pearl Harber with Hitler. They tended to come from the midwest and also think that social security is non-governmental private program. I am serious, that is a distinct type of person I remember from voter reg and GOTV canvases.

Then it went Reagan democratic. I think the recent southern invasian of certain parts of California (you can never tell what kind of riff-raff a dot-com boom will bring in) turned it into Cheney/Buch country. I think the Central Valley can be blue again, and progressive domestically. Probably always be too militaristic in foreign affairs, though. What to do about them transplant southerners, though, that is a problem. Why move to California, Georgia has good peaches too.

Anyway, be interesting to watch how people like Cardoza do in next few election cycles.

biggest.clueless.asshole.ever.

J-E-L-L-O,

when you look at

Contrib. $$$ by Industry you find Telco’s at # 13,

but when you look at Top Indiv Contrib. look who’s Numbah 1

Isn’t that pretty high considering.

Mercy, three pups that close! So glad all of you are O.K. as well as the GA pups who have reported in.

republicans! what is cheney going to be doing with all of his free time this time next year?

they’re all gonna be scattered, how they all gonna plot and plan and keep in touch with the fisa scenario they have set in place?

think the dems aren’t gonna be usin’ it? bet the republicans are thinkin’ bout that………or, are they?

they’re stupid as hell for not considering their own futures.

no email, no texting, no cell phones, no land lines, no credit cards………hmmmmmmm……..they’ll have to meet at waffle houses.

=======

dick cheney on the way to the middle east right now.

with his whip.

as i have said before, may they take it from him and use it on him (in the best possible way, of course)

======

harry shearer spoofing him in a meeting with the saudis right now……”cheney confidential” he calls the skits.

it’s my favorite when he does cheney. nails it all.

”i’m kinda like john mccain, still working on the economics thing”

=========

(go pach, being analytical is still in style, in my book.)

You’re having waaaaaay too much fun up there in the chilly North. *g* Did young really sleep thru’ that speech?

Glad to hear that you all are okay. We saw pics of the scene and the GA scene this morning, devastating

19% approval on economics -that is getting down to where it should have been all along. Let’s hope for zero soon. May get there they way things are looking for the second and third quarters.

Pach -

I just got a letter off to Senator Rockefeller. Thanks for posting this. The more messages he receives the better. Now he can never say he didn’t know.

OT – I really don’t like the new Obama ad. Targeting Repugs and Independents to convert for a day is torturing the voting process. On the other hand, I have no other suggestion since the wingnuts are targeting the same group to vote for Hillary. In my humble opinion, it shows that they are more affraid of Obama than Hillary. What to do? I hate unternal conflict. I feel like the immovable object meeting the irresistible force. SPLAT!

I’d like the public to realize that it is Republicanism and Reaganomics that is responsible for our current economic predicament, not simply George Bush.

Kudos to Hugh, Connaisseur is the correct spelling.

And the “la” before “plus ça change” is superfluous and wrong.

I was watching the folks in Atlanta who thought the tornado was a “terrrririst tack”. Still got a bump on my forehead from smashing it on my genou…

Fine post Pach, thanks.

The other twist to the McCain meme is that it suggests that any uptick in attacks is due to AQ, and not Iraqis who want an end to our occupation. You know, it’s important to get it through our heads that it’s al qaeda killing our troops, not Iraqis!

What Obama ad is asking voters to “convert for a day”?

cbl at 64

THANKS for that!

i’ve heard of the open secrets site, wrote it down many times, but never dug in there, thanks, i will now…..

we’ll have to ask christy, but i don’t think at&t is the major phone company in wva……..hmmmmmm.
wonder why they’d wanna bother with him……hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

wow, wow.

and then i looked for coal companies………..they’re right at the top, but i thought there would have been more of them………

and then i went to the wva contributors, only about 2 mil……….that’s not much from his home state. they didn’t list where it came from. but i think that can be found anyway.

his list is a little ’off’……majorly.

thanks, i’ll look into it.

wow

his nuts are in a clincher.

OT–

BREAKING–from NYTimes:

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Sunday, March 16, 2008 — 7:42 PM ET
—–

The Federal Reserve Cuts Its Lending Rate a Quarter Point

The Federal Reserve announced it was cutting its lending rate
to financial institutions to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent
to help provide relief to a spreading credit crisis.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

rgr that! one of favorite goya paintings too.

MORE BREAKING–From NYTimes:

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Sunday, March 16, 2008 — 7:18 PM ET
—–

JPMorgan Chase Says It Will Acquire Bear Stearns for $2 a Share

Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis,
agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a
bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two
companies announced.

The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share,
based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the
companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which
fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

I would too. I don’t live in the Central Valley anymore, so am not much in touch with the current community thinking. Been alot of growth in commuter population there recently, mainly from outside state, a lot from south and mid Atlantic, and they tend to have more conservative ideas than long time Northern Californians.

But many political and fiscal and public goods attitudes of long time Californians are confused, self-contradictory and self-defeating. The public attitudes were a confused mess the last time I lived there and am not sure what can turn it around.

The Golden State has gotten greedy selfish and cynical, and is turning itself into a huge machine digging itself into the ground, and many people are still responding with reflexive Reagan-style cynicism about government, and acquiescing into allowing the machine to dig deeper even faster.

But very weasily and ultra-DLC policies of the Davis wing of CA Democratic party responsible for the mess as well, in my opinion.

Bush’s approval rating on economics has dropped to 19%. I didn’t think that many people watched the business channel.

It’s amazing how many people run away from the economic subject. I see their eyes glaze over. It’s the big scary subject beyond mortal minds. If you put a quarter in the parking meter you are in the middle of economics so you may as well say something. What else do we use every day (forget personal items) other than money. It’s so prevalent we carry purses, wallets, pockets. That’s economics. No mystery. If you ever collected a paycheck and ran a household budget, you’re an expert. It’s a lot more than abstract theory. It’s from the everyday use of money that we can see behind the Federal Reserve screen.

and i’m not getting the graphic at the top of the post due to my outdated computer, so can someone tell me who you are talking about?

He was acting out. That’s about all he can do anymore. When I registered Thursday afternoon as a journalist, they gave me one of those convention grab bags. Among other useless items, it contained a Don Young pencil. As much as you sharpened it, it remained quite dull. When I tried to write with it, it wrote nothing but “no comment…”

There was also a Ted Stevens diaper in the bag….heh…

He is asking for Republicans and Independents to convert for a day and register Democrat and vote for him. He must be feeling the Clintons and wingnut talkshows. I’ll look for the linkie.

Big sell off tomorrow?

“It’s the big scary subject beyond mortal minds.”

Actually, it is not that at all. Economists like to keep it very obscure and mysterious, and that is a signal that economics is not a real science as practiced by most economists in the US. In the US, economic science is much more ideologically driven than in other areas, something often noted by many acadmeic and business economists from other parts of the world. In other words, in the US, much of it is ideologically corrupt. That is my opinion, and since I am in the biz, why I am anonymous here.

A famous mathematician used to come to grauduate seminars and he would stick around afterwards to explain some of the more abstruse presentations with some cartoons and sketches on a piece of paper. He said that in his experience, in most sciences and math, if some one gave a talk that the audience could not understand, it was considered the speakers problem. But in economics, when the audience could not understand, it was considered the audiences problem. And he said he thought that was a big problem with economics.

Most scientists strive to communicate their science in simple intuitive, but still correct and rigorous, wasy so that the general public could understand it. Until the US economics establishment adopts that attitude, I think the whole enterprize should be viewed with some suspicion.

It is Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man on which Pach pened.

Dear Senator Rockefeller:

This is your elbow

Your ass is back here

Try using these!Hope that helps!!!

XO FDL

sheesh, if i thought that i could never attract a single under graduate let alone 100s of them to my lectures… economics is highly intuitive, and I always explain things that way before i got into the graphs or the calculus…

I don’t know the central valley all that well, but I get the impression that there is a bit of a gradient. I have the vague impression that the Bakersfield end has always been dominated by okies, who tend to be pretty conservative, while the northern end seems to have a lot of San Francisco liberalism.

There was also a Ted Stevens diaper in the bag….heh…

For the WATB in us all?

LOL! One can only hope we live long enough to see the two of them get their just desserts (sp?). If it isn’t spelled that way, it should be. *g*

Bernanke is getting incredibly desperate … he should read his own paper on Monetary policy alternatives at the Zero Bound

I was thinking about how much smarter Democratic first ladies have been than their Republic counterparts. Jackie Kennedy, Hillary Clinton, and now possibly Michelle Obama. Maybe she’ll run for president in a few years.

and I’d actually be pretty worried about that … JP Morgan is a big player in the derivatives markets–especially hedge funds and such… it’s just likely to compound the situation

Actually, it is not that at all. Economists like to keep it very obscure and mysterious, and that is a signal that economics is not a real science as practiced by most economists in the US.

You say it so much better than I do. My point is that it is deliberately obtuse and the average joe thinks it is too complicated to understand. It is a subject that makes me so angry because it snake-oiled so many people.

Here’s another phrase: “It’s very complicated.” All to shut people up and I see it working.

Thanks for putting it so well. We need more economic exposure to demystify it.

I live in the Central Valley, there is alot of agriculture and farming in this area. It’s blood red. We’ve been making headway in registrations over the last year but we’ve got a ways to go. The number of people here that constantly vote against their own interest is shocking to say the least.

Is the term ‘okies’ politically acceptable and correct? Next will be ‘arkies’ and ‘dakes’ and other depression era cuss words, and next will be talkin about getting the sheriff to go clean out the hooverville out south sid of the SP tracks.

I don’t think any part of California outside of the the SF Bay can be considered San Francisco liberal. But Northern California and Central Valley, back in the day was definitely progressive left domestically more than rest of country. I remember my Eastern and Southern branches of my family routinely referring to CA as socialist. And I would think, “Hell yeah. That is why are number one.” but I am all growed up now and do not particpate in regional sniping, we are all in this together.

From my experience the depression era dustbowl immigrants as a community were quie progressive, sensible and level-headed about domestic issues. So, I would never say anything bad about them.

Bakersfield is in its own little world down there in the Kern Basin. Always been oil and cattle country as much as traditional CA agriculture, and much more conservative in a west-TX way than rest of CA.

i would be over the moon if she ran but i don’t think it’s going to happen. i’ve said it all along, the wrong Obama was running *g*.

tw3—-thanks! tooo funny, it just loaded……..right before i read your comment.

that is what is on my mini-notepad that i keep in my purse……from my mom, she got it in italy……at his gift shop.

i was passing it around at garden club thursday, people needed paper, and a few older chicks pointed out the ’anatomical’ parts to me and snickered, ’you’re dirty old broads’ i said to them………hadn’t even noticed it! i saw that drawing the first time when i was in grade school…….and cuz i’m an artist i guess, many naked people around. i drew them….didn’t even notice the man parts….you get that part, i’m sure…..

you provided a link to your barn wood paintings a while back, have any new stuff posted? i have a friend that has a gallery in his arts supply store in a college town, have been meaning to ask you……you did give me your email a while back, but i lost it. sorry. airhead.

he’s one of my best friends, honest, and sells a lot of art for people…..takes stuff he likes, and stuff i like.

you know I’ve always considered knowledge of economics as very empowering, and I try to teach it that way as well as train future economists and economics instructors that way …

and tw3k-have you seen margot’s art? it is incredible. very nice. i think she has it on her facebook……i don’t have a facebook account, so, i don’t know for sure, but i think she said it is on there.

For those of you in the economics profession, is there *anything* that could be done at this point in time to salvage the ship that appears to be going down with all hands on board (except the rich)?

QuakerGirl @ 95 -

Here’s another phrase: “It’s very complicated.” All to shut people up and I see it working.

That IVC thing has long past gotten on my very last nerve. Used to shut people up but also avoid proving to everyone how little the pundits actually know.

I am an ex-Central Valley-ite, born and raised. May family’s territory was from Fresno up through Sacramento. You are correct about how conservative it has become. From talking with my relatives who still live there, I have attributed it to long time natives being deluded into changing from Truman Democrats (in the sense I described above) into Reagan Democrats and then Bushites. And also to lots of recent immigration from more conservative areas of the country.

I don’t remember seeing the long standing reactionary and ignorantly reflexively hostile attitudes government, or the racial bigotry of Reagan Democrats in other areas of the country there. But that was long ago.

If you have any ideas about the reasons for the change, I would be interested in hearing them.

((((hi dakine))))

what is WATB?

The high point of my week was reading this by Glenn Greenwald yesterday morning:

And I just need to repeat this because it’s symphonic in its beauty: “the [FISA] impasse is now so deep that the issue may not be resolved until a new president takes office next year.” That sentence should be set to music.

-have you seen margot’s art? it is incredible. very nice. i think she has it on her facebook……

Yes, it is quite nice indeed. She sends some stuff to her friends once in a while, I always enjoy it.

Here is one proposal from Alan Blinder, famous bigshot macro-economist from Princeton. But his proposal will only take care of one part of the mess, directly related to housing. Because totally unregulated free for all financial markets have been trading mystery meat securities for several years, that has resulted in a spreading financial market freeze-up, and Blinders proposal does not directly deal with that. I will have link for a solution to that part in a moment.

There are other possible fixed to housing mess than Blinders, but his is a decent idea.

Economic View
From the New Deal, a Way Out of a Mess

By ALAN S. BLINDER
Published: February 24, 2008

THE question of the day seems to be this: Are we in, or heading for, a recession? But so much attention is focused on that question that we may be losing sight of an even greater danger: the possibility that powerful headwinds may prevent a strong recovery from any slowdown.

Most of the potential headwinds stem from the housing slump and related financial crises that began — but, unfortunately, did not end — with the subprime mortgage debacle. Wounded financial markets are supposed to cure themselves: asset prices fall, bargain hunters rush in and markets return to normal. But so far, that doesn’t seem to be happening much. Instead, house prices keep dropping, the mortgage-foreclosure problem grows and new strains in the financial system keep popping up like a not-very-funny version of Whack-a-Mole.

…Now, a small but growing group of academics and public figures, including Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, is calling for the federal government to bring back something like the HOLC. Count me in.

The HOLC was established in June 1933 to help distressed families avert foreclosures by replacing mortgages that were in or near default with new ones that homeowners could afford. It did so by buying old mortgages from banks — most of which were delighted to trade them in for safe government bonds — and then issuing new loans to homeowners. The HOLC financed itself by borrowing from capital markets and the Treasury.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02…..ref=slogin

I also live in the Fresno area. I’ve been here for 25 years. We have the largest amount concentrated poverty per capita in the nation. Ignorance and fear are what drove alot of folks to back bush. There are alot of churches in the area as well. You can still drive around on a daily basis and see w stickers on cars. We are facing a huge crisis in education here due to budget deficits, perhaps the teachers will finally wake up. There are alot of reasons why this place is conservative.

whiny ass titty baby

Read any commentary on what effect this could have on current court cases in need of a look into ’secret” evidence?

Big sell off tomorrow?

We’re discussing that very thing next door at Marcy’s… Excellent discussion about the Fed Rate cut, on a Sunday, and, the garage sale of BS to JP Morgan…!

yes, there is …

first, tax rebates are a complete waste of time … they don’t stimulate they economy, they are generally used to pay off debt

good things to do include: giving checks to states that need infrastructure rebuilds, extending payments to folks that loose jobs due to bad economy, pay for retraining of workers into high demand jobs, things like that… unfortuantely we just are going to have to live with the high oil prices and commodity prices because of the combination of high demand by india and china, and the fact all the speculators are in there now and not in financial markets.

we can also have fund freddie mac bonds to buy out and refinance troubled mortages… a lot of creative stuff could be done there..

If you’re talking about this ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vI_m3UPpRRY

there’s nothing about “converting for a day”. He’s just stating the rules of my state. You have to be registered as a Dem by March 24th to vote for him.

NYT said today that Bernanke was “improvising” – that makes me feel much better. This sounds as well thought out as the Iraq situation.

Definitely a venerable drawing for all those who’ve studied the figure. I can relate, as someone who has spent many hours creating figurative works, to seeing the human form differently.

No new works tho! D: I did just clean up some work space and found some LVLs I had chopped up for palette fodder. I have some 1/8″ ply around too.

That barn series is gone but you can email at tw3k dot net at gmail dot com

I always enjoy talking art!

It’s much funnier when you explain the picture in words! Thanks Tw3k. ;-)

Waccamaw, I had that feeling as well. And the older I get, the more likely I am to even acknowledge those feelings. Also, he’s one of many here who use words in ways that bring joy to this old broad’s heart.

Whiny A** Titty Baby.

That is, most of the Rethug Senators and Congress Critters

OT, but CNN is reporting that J P Morgan & Chase purchased Bear Stearns today for about $2 a share.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/1…..2008031619

ronzuber at 109-OH, wait a minute, i ’get’ it!!!!!!

i thought you were callin’ me one!!!!!!!!!

mannnnnnn………this place has me on edge lately.

take a breath dayna.

dakine, what a phrase to use……….tsk.
ha.

thanks ron.

But he forgot to point to the gonads… :0

Yeah, Fresno is kind of a mess, but I love it. Remember having great times in Roeding park and the cool zoo there. The crime and poverty has become a big problem. There has been a long time very conservative (I would say reactionary) business and agri-business community there. Fresno has grown so much and so fast that I do not know what is going on there. Nature of place has changed very much too -from primarily agricultural to lost of business processing, financial services, etc. Office park junk. Fresno will be a hard case to crack, harder than parts further north. I have to admit I do not understand Fresno much at all, and my family there are not much into politics at all and cannot tell me much.

Well, he wrote a study in 2004 called “monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound” for the FEDS project. He listed like three classes of policy alternatives to traditional interest rate jockying. He’s trying a few of them … the buying of bad mortgage date comes under the heading of “quantitative easying” … it’s something he’s studied and thought about, but never been done … it is a bit of a punt. But Bernanke’s got a brain … unlike rummy, cheney and the bush baby … all they have is faith in greed and neofascism, so hopefully different results

Sure have, really enjoy it too :)
She has been doing some non-FB works as well. Check em out.

And Jonah Goldberg. /s

Read any commentary on what effect this could have on current court cases in need of a look into ’secret” evidence?

Greenwald (and possibly bmaz) is of the opinion that FISA already provides more than ample provision for in-camera review of classified exculpatory evidence. That said, he still welcomed the explicit provisions for such review in the House’s recent FISA fix (which IIRC is actually an amendment to the Senate Bill). Greenwald has mentioned this a number of times over the past couple of months, and I think he gave explicit references within the past two weeks.

A week or two ago, bmaz (at emptywheel) did a rather extensive review of FISA’s protections for cooperating telcos, but I don’t recall if he got into the provisions for access to classified exculpatory evidence.

Heh heh. No. I should have been clear. I was just spelling out the acronym. :)

And sung loudly!

There’s about eight guys in the lege who will vote against anything that might require raising taxes, and for cuts (except to their pay). They’ve blocked extending the sales tax to yachts, on the grounds that people won’t be buying them if they have to pay sales tax!
Tom McClintock wants to run for Doolittle’s seat, which means carpetbagging, because his district is around Camarillo. I’d like to see someone sue him for that – there should be a law covering it, because if he’s running for Doolittle’s seat then legally he’s not living in the district he’s supposed to be representing, and if he’s seriously representing his district (not likely) then there’s no way he’s able to qualify his residence to run for Doolittle’s district.

thanks tw3-i wanna hear about the homestead, and how it is coming along, or not………

thanks, i bonded with the things you already shared about it…….and please provide a link again for your barn board paintings, even though people might not quite appreciate the process that it takes to do them, maybe they will and get something out of them………please, do.

Is Teddy SanFran still around?

Afghanistan challenge romantic – Bush 14 Mar 2008 US President [sic] George W Bush says he would fight in Afghanistan if he was younger. Bush spoke of his dream to work on the frontline in Afghanistan during a video conference with US military and civilian personnel in the war-torn country. “I must say, I’m a little envious,” Bush said. “If I were slightly younger and not employed here, I think it would be a fantastic experience to be on the front lines of helping this young democracy succeed. It must be exciting for you … in some ways romantic, in some ways, you know, confronting danger. You’re really making history, and thanks,” Bush said. [OMG, send the f*cker to the frontlines, please!]

Below is copied a post on Atrios that gives Nouriel Roubini’s ideas on how insovlancies like that at Bear Stearns should be handled. Roubini has a free newsletter, if you follow the link at atrios, and Roubini has been dead on correct about the housing bubble, dangers of housing bubble combined with unregulated financial markets, and macro-economic consequences. So I think Roubini’s criticisms of policy and suggestions about alternative approaches are good to read.

Radical Action

Roubini:

So the question is: if Bear Stearns screwed up big time – as it did – with huge leverage, reckless investments, lousy risk management and massive underestimation of liquidity risk why should the US taxpayer bail out this firm and its shareholders? First fully wipe out those shareholders, then fire all the senior management and have the government take over such a bankrupt institution before a penny of public money is wasted in bailing it out. Instead now the use of public money to bail out financial institutions is spreading from banking ones to non banking ones. The Fed should at least give a clear and public explanation of why such extremely exceptional – and almost never used – intervention was justified.

Unless public money is used on a very temporary basis to achieve an orderly wind-down or merger of Bear Stearns this is another case where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. By having thrown down the drain the decades old doctrine and rule that the Fed should not lend or bail out non-bank financial institutions the Fed has created an extremely dangerous precedent that seriously aggravates the moral hazard of its lender of last resort support role. If the Fed starts on the slippery slope of providing massive liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions that have recklessly managed their risks it enters into uncharted territory that radically changes its mandate and formal role. Breaking decades-old rules and practices is a radical action that seriously requires a clear public explanation and justification.

-Atrios 16:08

http://atrios.blogspot.com/200…..9845550148

I know. That was a bummer. Still funny though! ;-)

I predict lots of Atrios “wheeeeeees” in our future. The Nikkei is off 3% shortly after opening:

http://finance.yahoo.com/

thanks for heads up on Doolittle seat. The CA GOP must be desperate. The CA GOP has gone truly insance and purely and only obstructionist. They want to turn CA into a rich white patriarchy -I call their dream state an fantasy End Times Christian fundamentalist Sumerian patriarchy. Maybe an OK idea if we were living 4000 year ago. But we aren’t.

There explanations to public are incoherent garbage. On the yacht thing, I noticed that they did not return calls to press to explain their position. they just won the vote, crawled back into their hole and slammed the door shut.

If we can have a good crop of Congressional candidates, and a presidential candidate with long coat-tails, CA might rid itself of these madmen before they destroy the whole state.

Why are they all let them eat cake about predatory lending victims, yet they’ll just go the wire for the predatory lenders? The only reason is to try to calm every one down, because this is just the first of many, believe me. Wait until it creeps further into the hedge funds … of which JP Morgan is a big holder … this reminds me of the same kind of crap I saw during the S&L debacle … take the little loosers and let the big looser swallow them up into you’ve got these monster loosers to deal with …

Per Glenn Greenwald from Friday http://www.salon.com/opinion/g…..index.html

Finally, we have this bit of pure mendacity:

Rockefeller added: “If people want to be mad, don’t be mad at the telecommunications companies, who are restrained from saying anything at all under the State Secrets Act. And they really are. They can’t say whether they were involved, they can’t go to court, they can’t do anything. They’re just helpless. And the president was just having his way.”

Rockefeller’s claim that telecoms can’t submit exculpatory evidence to the court is flat-out false, an absolute lie. There is no other accurate way to describe his statement.

Under FISA (50 USC 1806(f)), telecoms are explicitly permitted to present any evidence in support of their defenses in secret (in camera, ex parte) to the judge and let the judge decide the case based on it. That section of long-standing law could not be clearer, and leaves no doubt that Rockefeller is simply lying when he says that telecoms are unable to submit secret evidence to the court to defend themselves:

[W]henever any motion or request is made by an aggrieved person pursuant to any other statute or rule of the United States or any State before any court or other authority of the United States or any State to discover or obtain applications or orders or other materials relating to electronic surveillance or to discover, obtain, or suppress evidence or information obtained or derived from electronic surveillance under this chapter, the United States district court or, where the motion is made before another authority, the United States district court in the same district as the authority, shall, notwithstanding any other law, if the Attorney General files an affidavit under oath that disclosure or an adversary hearing would harm the national security of the United States, review in camera and ex parte the application, order, and such other materials relating to the surveillance as may be necessary to determine whether the surveillance of the aggrieved person was lawfully authorized and conducted.

How much clearer could that be? Directly contrary to Rockefeller’s claims, federal courts are not only able, but required (”shall”), to review in secret any classified information — including evidence over which a “states secrets privilege” has been asserted — in order “to determine whether the surveillance of the aggrieved person was lawfully authorized and conducted.” Federal courts already have exactly the power that Rockefeller dishonestly claims they lack.

Moreover, even if that provision didn’t exist (and it does), and even if Rockefeller were telling the truth when claiming that telecoms were unable to submit exculpatory evidence to the court (and he isn’t), then Congress could just easily fix that problem in one day. All they have to do is amend FISA to make clear that telecoms do have the right to submit such evidence to defend themselves notwithstanding the President’s utterance of the all-powerful magic phrase “State Secrets.” And then this oh-so-unfair problem would be instantly fixed.

You missed that arrow?

What a train wreck

Ta much for the info. IANAE and even I saw the rebates for what they are, a bone thrown that has no meat on it. And this business of bailing out the big boys but refusing to offer any help to the “little” people who are losing their homes is despicable! If it’s creativity that’s needed on the part of republics, we are well and truly forked!

Skeptic @ 117 -

Always seemed like one of those people you could count on to watch your back.

wesgpc @ 133 -

And thank you also. That business about “privatizing profits and socializing losses” sounds familiar so it must have been A’s place I saw it. Will go back for another look tonight.

I dunno. I am not primarily a maco-economics or maco-finance person. But I do strongly believe that the US economics establishment is very ideologically driven, and that it has gotten so bad, scientific integrity issues are beginning to be at stake. I think only certain solutions with certain distributional impacts are ideologically permitted. Others are not. But I am not ann area specialist and that is partly my own political ideology talking there, I have to admit. I wish I had time to study the field more, and will try to in coming months.

He doesn’t actually say “for a day”, that’s the way Taylor Marsh phrased it. But the point is he’s encouraging and enabling Indies and Pukes to register as Democrats solely for the purpose of voting for him in that one primary election– hence the “for a day” phrase.

and i want people to understand, that bear stearns is a company that leans toward the very wealthy…….the top 5 percentile…….they are crashing…………does anyone understand what that will do to the economy?

crash it.

cuz they run it.

my dad was a corporate accountant, and as he explained to me, when the top falls, immediate constraints are imposed upon anyone under it……..that means us.

it will affect everything, your credit rating, loan rates, credit rates, etc…….anyone with debt is screwed.

so get rid of your debt. pay it off as soon as you can. be solvent.

we cannot comprehend the limits in finance that are coming………

our money is now frozen, it has already happened.

wake up.

the top percentile has crashed………the bricks have yet to hit the ground.

we’ll be ok, but you need to stop spending, hole-up your money, and ride it out.

in other words, be frugal.

if you have money/debt that is larger than your income, look into the non-profits that will let you seal it at a certain rate of payback, that can’t be raised on you, cuz the raise is comin’ to cover the top 5 percent.

it’s a shell game, so call out the dealer now. get your own game straight before they take charge of it.

and they’re gonna, to cover it.

ok, i’m done. do it. face your debts, get them tallied up and taken care of before the books are closed because of these asshats.

Thanks dmac. Here are the photos. e-mail me. I kinda hate to divert the thread w/my personal stuff before late night.

You do know about 70 percent of economists are dem?

and pach i sent a letter to jello jay-

Dear Senator;

I was confused about your FISA vote, until I read your contributors list……..

NUMBER ONE-AT&T

kinda explains your vote.

How absolutely appalling.

I dare you to read the Constitution again, please do.

Pay extra attention to the 4th amendment.

Sincerely,
D

Your sagacity deserves a round of applause from America!!!!
Refi the whole shebang at affordable payments until they are resold on average evry 7 years. The million in bakruptcy/foreclosure willljump all over that. Could add the expense to the mortgage with longer term etc the paper mills are so creative. Then credit restriction might soften enough to free the real estate market back to a more natural cycle and people wanting to sell and buy could.

Another one of those progressive solutions that produce middle class capital…so over the top anti Regan-Bush-Rove-Friedman clusterfuck economics.
A real solution for real people that do 70% of the consumption. This will shake the very foundations of Bernanke economics ei bail out the corrupt investment banks and fuck the working class.

The HOLC was established in June 1933 to help distressed families avert foreclosures by replacing mortgages that were in or near default with new ones that homeowners could afford. It did so by buying old mortgages from banks — most of which were delighted to trade them in for safe government bonds — and then issuing new loans to homeowners. The HOLC financed itself by borrowing from capital markets and the Treasury.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02…..ref=slogin

70%, really? Well, ideological bias is a very subtle ether than can penetrate party ID. How about the economists who get into executive branch positions, if you are still here, do you have that figure, I would be interested.

Another slick move. Consolidate the Bear Stearn losses over to the new owner JP Morgan then bail them out with our $400 Billion bucks.They get good negotiable teasury note for bad paper. Will the government own the rotten part of the private sector thus holding the garbage sub prime while the home owners get kicked out?

We should be calling our critters and raising hell.

Great letter, Dmac. Short and to the point! Those are the best ones, because you know the person reading it (hopefully the Senator) will get the gist.

JP Morgan was the bank that was foreclosing all those desparate homes in the depression’
Morgan was the scrooge that was foreclosing on farms and homes. Hollywood made a very famous movie Grapes of Wrath and Pretty Boy Floydd who robbed banks partly justified as they were taking peoples farms.

AS usual another outstanding post. FISA ie stripping away rights to privacy does not help the party of SECRETS.
G

Please keep the posts coming

no idea on that, I imagine when AEA does these surveys they have their members sorted by who is where…i’ll check the last salary survey, and basic stats and see if i can find anything like that…

like THAT would help …FED operates in its own world. Congress has no power over it all…

McKay Link.pdf (290KB)

pdf link