In Texas, the caucuses were swamped in places that previously had seen as little as 3 or 4 people participating in past years. Voter turnout in TX blew the prior primary record out of the water by around a million voters.
In Ohio, they also set a record for primary turnout, as voters battled horrid weather to get to the polls:
Results showed that the Democratic contest dominated the night in Ohio, with many unaffiliated and Republican voters choosing to vote on the Democratic side in this perennial swing state that has made a habit of picking presidents.
With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic candidates received more than twice the number of votes that Republicans did, with 2.15 million votes to Republicans' roughly 1.05 million.
There were also record numbers in Vermont and Rhode Island. Vermont had 13,000 new voter registrations to add to their voting totals, all registered just since January. Rhode Island's turnout was more than double their previous primary high mark.
Which just adds to the increased numbers in every Democratic primary thus far. It's especially notable in light of prior primaries, comparing D and R numbers this year:
In the first five weeks of 2008, "voter turnout" was a phrase that was used almost exclusively in connection with the Democratic Party. There were routine stories of precincts running short on ballots, poll hours being extended, and voters packing haunch to paunch inside community centers and local churches. Crowd sizes were described, often with growing awe, as "staggering," "record breaking," or "unprecedented."
The actual numbers justified the claims....
On a state-by-state basis, Democrats had higher turnouts than Republicans in 19 out of 25 states. The six outliers that tilted Republican were Arizona (Sen. John McCain's home turf), Utah (a pro-Romney Mormon stronghold), Michigan (where Rep. Denis Kucinich was the sole Democrat to campaign), Florida (where no Democrats campaigned), Alabama, and Alaska.
Even in Georgia, a state President George W. Bush won in 2004 by 17 percent, Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by nearly 100,000....
Every state thus far has also seen newly added registrations, some at rates exceeding what the expectations were from prior years. While primary turnout doesn't necessarily translate into a fall victory, the increased enthusiasm and new registration numbers -- if it holds through November -- could have a very positive effect on a whole host of down ticket races. And that translates into a potential long-term shift in a whole lot of communities and states.
Some of the credit for this increase has to go to Obama strategist David Axelrod, whose background in media work and message crafting has helped him shape a formidable ground game for the campaign. The increase in Clinton organizational energy coincided with the return of Harold Ickes, whose experience is useful, whose past missteps may be legion, but whose mind for numbers is incredible. Which makes for a lot of continued excitement in the weeks ahead, I'm sure. But the most credit has to go to energized voters:
"I don't know how much difference this makes in the long run, but it makes a lot of difference to me," said 31-year-old Megan House, who was hoping to be chosen a delegate for the next stage of the process. "You've got to make a stand somewhere. People are understanding that democracy is controlled by those who show up."
For all of you thus far who have voted and worked this election cycle? Bravo.
(YouTube of Gendron/Ivaldi playing Debussy's Cello Sonata in 1967.)
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My party is on a roll.
Our only hope is a voter tsunami.
the dem turnout is the most comforting thing I have as regards this election
I am certain they would do whatever it takes to steal yet another election but if the numbers are too great, they might not even try
let’s temper the euphoria with the fact that most people don’t come out for primaries, on the democratic side we are more interested in who runs then they are on the republican side
they will therefore not show up in the prmirary but will show up in the general
I hope I am wrong but the voting numbers should be closer during the actual election
let’s hope it’s a tsunami ask kerkwurdiglieber says
oh man. i saw that same quote in the houston chronicle while looking for info on texas turnout and thought it a perfect slogan for someone…..
Come November, we’re going to defeat you, Mr. Rove. Soundly.
So Karl Rove. This is your vision of Republicanism as far as the eye can see? I don’t think so.
Mr. McCain: You pathetic sap.
I think we will get a tsunami. Can’t think of any reason all these people would go through these rather difficult conditions, including weather, and not bother to vote in the general. It obviously means a lot to people this time around and that’s a great thing.
karl rove has new math, and the republicans are gonna win
the prsident has the same math
they call it “fuzzy” math
they have an ace in the hole, a “catastrophy” and elections will mean nothing at all if they play that ace
We need all of that enthusiasm in November when the waves of negativity will drive up R turnout.
The GOP blinked. They nominated John McCain.
work, later all
State elections officials say about 3.7 million Texans — or about 29 percent of the state’s registered voters — had cast ballots with about 85 percent of precincts reported. The state’s previous turnout record was 2.7 million set in 1988.
These numbers are astounding…
I think I have a primary hangover…is anybody a little freaked that rushbo is telling his disciples to vote for HRC? Is this good or bad? True? To me it means that a good number of folks voting for her in primaries will not vote for her in the general. Or is this inconsequential due to the fact that more dems are turning out.
sorry if I missed this discussion in an earlier thread someplace.
Which is exactly why doing the work NOW is so important. We can’t wait until September to start gearing things up for all the down-ticket races and especially not for Congressional races for folks like Vic Wulsin, who won her primary last night and will face off against Mean Jean Schmidt again.
We have to get on the ball now…no waiting, no way.
Years ago, I worked on an Axelrod-managed campaign in Illinois. I know very little of the behind the scenes stuff of the Obama campaign, but I see — and admire — Axelrod’s hand at work in a lot of things they are doing.
Oops — meant to include a link on Vic Wulsin’s win — here you go…
It’s always good for the GOP. Always. Just ask Rush, or Sean, or BillO, or anyone else at Faux News.
I sure wish some of the 350M spent so far on the Presidential primary would find it’s way to the down-ticket candidates.
rgr that! That is where the real race is.
You are seeing a tsunami at the moment, will it still be on this fall for the election? I think so.
You can bet the republicans are going nuts these days, and that, unsurprisingly, they will stop at nothing to win. Cheney and his faithful minions will go mediaval on the Democratic party. Expect the worst from these cornered rats, the very worst…
Doh! I should have known that! *g*
There is work to be done. We cannot do the unspeakable. Let John McCain win. I want to see Obama and Hillary come to an agreement. Very soon. This is a must. The nation comes way before personal ambition.
The time has arrived for Senator Clinton and Senator Obama to show real leadership. They know what I’m talking about.
Christy,
I’m trying to get a hold of the recording of McCain’s phone call from Texas to the Rep/ McCain headquarters in Columbus last night. My husband and I were watching the news and McCain in his thanks reminded the republicans he will surely “contest and fight” the Ohio vote outcome in the November election. I thought that was pretty strong and revealing for him to say after this March primary. Both of us said at the same time, “What the *&%$ does that have to do with tonight’s outcome except the number of voters who registered Dem, especially “switch overs”.
My guess is, Reps are already contesting the number of Dems voting. The comment needs to be looked at and HAMMERED away at because Ohio voters will not put up with language like THAT NOW before we even have had the Presidential election.
Honestly, when will the GOP GET A CLUE!
This broadcast ran right after a live broadcast with the Secretary of State explaining the high Dem turnout and the need to keep polls open longer in some areas because precincts ran of party declaration sheets for voters and had to deliver extras.
Let me just add for Sen. McCain, the “switch over” rate was so high in Ohio thanks to your “buddy” former Secretary of State, Kenneth Blackwell, who ran for Gov. in Ohio. So many of us DID NOT want him to end up on the ballot and knew the Dem candidate who was the strongest would surely win. Many Dems and Indeps. declared Rep. in the last primary (last May) to cast a vote against Blackwell.
Stop the threat on Ohio now Senator McCain.
Thanks, Christy for the excellent overall.
Personally, I’m not particularly comforted by the difference in numbers betwen Dem and the Dark Side primary turnout numbers. In addition to whatever number of them are crossing over to vote and caucus in our open primaries and caucuses, Dark Side races are not contested at this point in the game. Yes, I remember we’ve been outnumbering them from the beginning.
They will each fight on, maybe all the way to the convention. My prediction.
is anybody a little freaked that rushbo is telling his disciples to vote for HRC? Is this good or bad? True?
Obama has coattails, HRC has Clinton Derangement Syndrome. the Rs will remember they have to help JimBob clean out the garage/have a Drs appt/get their hair done and the Dems will turn out in force if it’s an Obama/McStain race. if it’s HRC/McStain the Rs come out in a last throes frenzy to vote against her and there won’t be as much enthusiasm on the Dem side.
amen on your props to Axelrod, Christy !
even before I’d made up my mind I thought that alone may be reason to support Obama, imagine that juggernaught hooking up with Chairman Dean’s 50 State Strategy after the convention - Bluenami !
I am hoping that this means the non-voting majority have finally woken up. I remember the stunned silence from everyone after the 2004 returns came in. It reminded me of the guy who goes onto the meeting thinking he had a deal, just to get shafted once the meeting starts.
I suspect the public is quietly pissed because most people just assumed Kerry had won.
The majority doesn’t stand up and scream like we do. Like everything else in our lives, we just quietly do what we need to solve the problem.
And I hope everyone enjoys the Debussy in the YouTube above. It’s a lovely break from the ceaseless talking head chatter, I have to say…
That might prove to be undesirable and perhaps somewhat defeatist.
Agreed. Just my prediction. Not my preference. If the numbers remain equivocal, the fight will continue. To me, that’s obvious.
im tired
show me the money….CHANGE is the answer to Bushco/neoconism
hey BobbyG -
the fight will continue.
after their statements on Monday, wonder if we’ll hear from Gov Richardson and other ‘establishment Dems’
Oh, and thank you all for the non-poo-flingy environment today.
if Pelosi,would start impeachment proceedings,Bushco would not have time to….1..keep fighting the FISA crap,2start a war with Iran,3Venezuela,Hammas…etc,etc…throw em a CURVE BALL Nancy
Wolcott disagrees with you on that one.
I know most everyone who likes Claude Debussy usually picks one favorite. Clair de lune. God I cherish this tune and all of Mr. Debussy’s work. The man was, and remains, pure genius. His music is almost haunting.
She got No Game. Wish in one hand, shit in the other, see which one fills up faster.
i say keep their stable of lawyers busy defending the Chump &Co
You are welcome. I’ve had it up to here with whinging and hand wringing and overwrought melodramatic name-calling and finger-pointing. This is politics, not a Miss Manners festival. And it will work itself out in the end the way it always does…over time.
Christy @ 15:
Indeed. Methinks we may need to remind ourselves of this over and over and over again. Edwards spoke of the epic battle. We must not let ourselves get bogged down/iraqisized = disheartened by the vagaries of the campaign season.
More and better Democrats…from the WH to the Congress to the statehouses to the wee township halls. This is no time for timeouts.
Erm, Republicans came out to vote for Hillary knowing she’s the weakest link in the General Election being offered up by the Democratic Party.
if ever there were high crimes and misdemeanors…see war crimes trials,a blueprint to follow,i think Vt.made some indictments last night….push THEM ALL back on their heels
Your proof on that would be at what link? Are you sure that GOP voters didn’t favor either her or Obama in their votes — because I’ve seen plenty of evidence in reporting and number-cruching from a number of disperate sources and from both campaigns on that. If you throw out an accusation or innuendo, please be prepared to back it up with links and facts. Thanks!
I believe I had noticed that!
thanks so very much for the musical respite. it’s soothing and smile inducing after a twisted 24 hours.
How many? Where?
Someone disagrees with me? How dare they? Off with their heads! And make it hurt. ;0)
Clenis was so busy defending the wurlitzer attack,he didnt have time for much else………push Chimpco…back
Agreed. Pandemic Bu’ush-ist criminality. I just won’t hold my breath that Pelosi et al will do anything.
not quite DeBussy, but music to this hippy’s ears -
by 501c4 issue-advocacy group Campaign to Defend America, ran in Ohio
McSame
I just want the Republicans outta the White House.
Just had a disturbing conversation with a coworker. My coworker’s prediction is that Hil will get the nomination, and as a result will lose all those “energized” Obama primary voters in the general. Thus we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Again.
My coworker is very savvy, but I hope very wrong.
Isn’t that table odd? Maybe someone else can see the unifying principle, but it escapes me at the moment. However, it looks as though more often than not Republicans just don’t do primaries — they save it for the General Election. (Kinda fits with acquiesence to authority: the wise ones will decide who we are to vote for, and when the order is given, we shall march to the polls and do the right thing.)
The participation in the Democratic primaries is wonderful, and the NEW registrations may be important, but this is going to be a short, hard, vicious uphill fight, between the conventions and the general.
In fact, here are a few that I’ve seen this week:
– Obama hopes for crossover votes in Ohio.
– Texas Republicans crossover for Obama.
– Disgruntled in Texas.
And that’s just a tiny sampling. In the general election, the ability to snag crossover votes is going to be critical — which is why both Obama and Clinton need to start working that angle now rather than waiting until later. They are both politically savvy enough to know this — and we shouldn’t allow divisive media spin to tell us that it isn’t good tactics to court this, because it is. (See the above numbers on Georgia for a glimpse as to why…)
INQUIRY…..push em back…..they have WAY TOO MUCH time on their hands between now and Jan 09…keep em busy answering supboenas
If McCain gets in it will be the age of torrid conservatism.
The antidote for poo? Trying to soothe us savage beasts any way you can, eh, christy?
he is a bush/cheney puppet
Not gonna happen, IMHO. Sad, but true, I think.
I meant it yesterday when I said I had really had it with the invective. We can talk facts all day long, but throwing out non-fact-based, unsubstantiated whinging is no good for anyone. Least of all for motivating folks to do the work we all need to be doing going into November — that needs to get started now.
The media’s interest is to play divide and conquer with all of us, continually stirring the pot and the animosity…because that means more revenue for them and a clear field for St. McCain. Don’t fall for their crap.
Hi everyone. Just curious. Am I the only one who does NOT take that prediction as bad news?
To me, if we can keep it clean and fair, a good tussle is a good thing. We voted for Obama, and almost surely will again. But I am glad Hillary Clinton eked out a couple of important victories to keep her going. Nothing like a good lively ongoing debate to keep the interest level up.
It should take some of the fire out of Nader’s brimstone, and as for StCain’s campain? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Still, it might not be a bad idea for everyone here at the Lake to remind both the Democratic candidates AND their respective campaigns to KEEP IT CLEAN AND FAIR. Get down-&-dirty? Yer gonna lose.
So, on to the Convention if necessary.
And thanks for the great posts Redd. I’ll bet the MSM would rather have ignored the humungous turnout. It gives me goosebumps, heh.
GO BLUE!
it is the answer to a big win….tie old man McBush to the CRIMINAL party
I took a little comfort in something (gasp!) Tim Russert showed everyone last night. It was some sort of estimate done by the Obama camp (he claims) of which states Obamawould win and it’s been accurate. Obama’s people were not counting on wins in Texas or Ohio. So they must have a plan all the way through. Their campaign is rather remarkable in how they are charting their own course down Poo River.
Did anyone else see this? thoughts?
Did she give a reason for this? Because she is going to have to win remaining states by pretty overwhelming majorities to pull it off.
Rush is just trying to find a parade to get in front of so he can pretend he has some influence, after his anti-McCain jihad was a complete failure. I don’t think his ability to move people to action is any greater now than it was then.
so who will McBush chose as his partner in crime?
I hear ya. I saw a headline about Obama’s “glass jaw” and just rolled my eyes and said to myself “well, they have to print something and sell it.”
Christy, you so rock!
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Hardin Smith and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
Before we get too far out on this high tide of voter turnout, let’s make sure we got a paddle ta get back ta the beach when the the current shifts. I wanna know about the Republican crossover in Ohio and the breakdown of the Hispanic vrs. Black vote in Texas. This, friends, is what we’re seein’ here with the Clinton-Ickes-DLC campaign machine: 1.) organize Republican crossovers in areas that are decidedly NOT multi-cultural (read racist) to bulk up her vote and neutralize the vote in the big urban areas. 2.) pit the Hispanic vote against the Black vote as we saw in LA in the earlier primary to undo years of careful organizin’ of local party workers and dispirit large blocks of urban voters who have been energized ta vote for the first time in years.
The results of this strategy can only be negative for Democrats in the fall. If Mrs. Clinton succeeds in stealin’ the nomination in a brokered convention from the candidate that ken beat McCrazy, we lose in the fall and half the new voters energized by Obama disappear in the future and the corporatist ‘big state” television politics kills democracy. If Mrs. Clinton loses the nomination with the grace she has shown up to this point and with the message she has used to energize some of her key constituencies, then the Democratic Party is mortally wounded. I don’t see ANYthin’ good comin’ from last night unless it wakes Obama up and he looses the “dogs of hell” on the Witch from Illinois (or is it Arkansas or is it New York) over NAFTA, the war and Joe Lieberman.
KEEP THE FAITH AND KEEP FIGHTIN’, THERE IS NO COMPROMISIN’ WITH FASCISTS!!
Repeating my earlier thought from today: Let’s push for Timmeh to make his next “gotcha” moment asking St. John if he will pardon Bush and Cheney if elected. We have a right to know!
I too am concerned with skewed numbers due to open primaries where repubs are trying to influence the dem choice.
Let’s start referring to him as John McBu’ush.
This MSM suggestion that the Democrats’ battle will cost them the general election is ludicrous. If anything, it publicizes and popularizes the party and gets people (like me!) who have never been involved in a campaign to go in (I plan to make phone calls in Pennsylvania for Obama).
One negative thing, however, about a drawn-out race is that the party’s not unified on ending the war and we may end up with a(nother) candidate who has neutralized the war as an issue to campaign on. Clinton is implicitly depreciating those Democrats who have always opposed this war as “naive” or “inexperienced” and unable to go against McCain. That is a calamity.
yes WALLPAPER him to them,and ALL their crimes
Huckelberry Hound, champion of zygotic citizens, would be an entertaining VP candidate choice.
yes
I will agree with Wolcott on this: MSNBC’s election night coverage is ridiculous. As I have said previously, Tweety and KO have absolutely no business anchoring these election night shows. This allows their prejudices to flavor the entire coverage.
I watched CNN, for the most part, last night and found it to be superior to MSNBC. thge news people were straight and accurat ein their coverage. Their opnion people were the equal of MSNBC’s.
i say darth will pick em…Condi?
Norske, if both candidates are playing by the rules as they were written at the start of the campaign, then neither of them will be “stealing” anything. And to start down that throwing out accusations road without any proof? That just hurts the party when we are months away from the convention, now doesn’t it?
Not like Sen. Clinton is one thing, accusing her of trying to pull something that neither she nor Sen. Obama have tried to remotely pull as yet is uncalled for at this stage. Both of them are working the superdelegates. Both fo them are jockeying for spin positioning. Both of them are fighting hard for the nomination personally and through surrogates. Both of them are politicians and expected to act like it…which is to say, neither of them are saints, nor are they surrounded by as many dirty-trickster sinners as McCain.
So let’s keep our eyes on the real enemy for the fall, shall we? Hello, GOP…we hear you snore.
but we must expose the crimes and harp on them,not just let them go down the memory hole
Cheney and Condi hate each other. So I seriously doubt it.
OK …who will the cabal chose iyo?
Does anyone differ with the premise that Hillary or Obama are highly preferable to McCain? And if anyone takes exception to this statement would you pleases include me in on your thinking as to your reasons?
short & sweet.
there ya go!
Hi Kiddo. You and Lahoma up all night dancin? ;->
This is what scares me about a Clinton candidacy. (Not poo, just pragmatism. I personally don’t care which one wins–or appears first on the ticket.)
that is teh fabulous.
I agree. The conventional wisdom has been that when the Republicans wrapped up their nomination first, it was (as always) good for the GOP and bad for the Dems, because McCain could go straight into “defining” his opponent, and the Dem candidates would still be fighting each other. Instead, the result seems to have been that the exciting Dem contest sucks up all the media oxygen, and no one cares much about what McCain might be trying to do.
i want the fall election to be such a resounding repudiation to the Republicans ,that Barry Goldwater looks stellar
AP - Barack Obama regained lost ground in the fierce competition for Democratic convention delegates on Wednesday based on results from the Texas caucuses, partially negating the impact of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s string of comeback primary victories.
I’m just thinking out loud and people here politely allow me to do so, so here’s some more. I really want to be able to rally around our dem choice asap. I’m really impatient.
However, it probably IS a great thing that our candidates continue to duke it out because then everyone has a voice in areas of the country. Not all states have open primaries…plus, whoever does finally get the nomination should expect to have support in all states because everyone had a chance to choose.
OTOH, if it gets too nasty, that’s counterproductive too.
I think you are looking at trees rather than the forest.
What cabal? You mean the voters in all the states who have yet to vote? Or the superdelegates, most of whom are elected officials and answerable to voter opinion so that they take it into account when they make their decisions public?
Jeebus, people, it’s not as though we haven’t been down the contested primary road before. Either Obama or Clinton will end up being the nominee in the end — whomever doesn’t get the nod will support the other, because they both know that McCain as President is bad for all of us. Which is pretty much the point…isn’t it?
and as usual,i DONT trust the MSM(corporate)
aint it though :)
via TPM
Hi GW, thanks again for your report yesterday. You must be bursting yer buttons over caucus turnout!
the ensconsed corporate oligarch
I think the question was about who will be chosen for McCain’s VP.
Nope, it’s all pure speculation at this point. But I do agree with Christy wholeheartedly about the poo flingage. Despite whatever scenarios we can imagine, we need to push both candidates towards progressive positions and encourage a pragmatic resolution to this electoral conundrum.
in my question ,i was asking who would be McBushs mate,chosen by the Cheney cabal
We are having some work done on the kitchen today. I wanted a new, bigger and better stove, which requires some cabinet relocation. When it comes to cooking and other kitchen stuff and some other things, Lahoma likes to keep me happy. Hope you are having a great day Adie. ;0)
we are trying,has Edwards weighed in?
?
Ahhh…well, no idea there. PW has odds on Tim Pawlenty, who has been kissing McCain’s ass in the worst way. I think Huckabee wants it badly, but I doubt seriously if he’d make the cut. Ditto for Huckleberry Graham. If I had to guess, I’d say Haley Barbour would be on the short list, to reel in the 28-percent crowd that loathe McCain…but it’s just a guess.
The primary in my state (PA) is closed so Rethugs would have
to register ahead of time (by March 24th) in order to vote for a Dem.
By the way, I hereby declare PA to be the KING OF ALL STATES.
You may now commence with the groveling.
oh Haley B. has Katrina skeletons ……..many
It saddens me that the Clintons are able to sustain a divisive campaign, in part, based upon the empty promise of Universal Healthcare when the Clintons have a proven inability to work successfully with the legislative branch of government. Ohio is a red state forever for the Clintons going forward. And if they are nominated, the only hope for their election is that they are viewed as the lesser evil than McCain. I suspect that the Ohio vote for the Clintons is a fear vote, not an experience vote or a change vote or a positive vote, except for women over 60.
we need to push both candidates towards progressive positions and encourage a pragmatic resolution to this electoral conundrum.
Exactly because neither of them are truly progressive. Not only that but we should also be working our asses off at the local and state level to get alot better dems elected to the Congress.
Put me down for Huckabee or Brownback.
McCain’s got some serious fence-mending to do, especially with the TheoCons.
I think it would have to be someone they could actually tolerate as president - in the event that McCain has serious health issues. In fact they may be counting on those health issues.
Novakula put the kabosh on Tim P. last Sunday.
i betcha its Brokeback
Hmm. Forgot about him.
Also, as someone pointed out (the Orange Overlord, if I remember right), having the contest continue into more states means the campaigns are building infrastructure and recruiting volunteers in those states, which will be an advantage in the fall (and beyond, if they’re smart about it.)
Except that no one in the GOP really listens to Novak other than to ask themselves “whose opinion is he vetting out this week.” So, any guesses as to who was really trying to put the kibosh on Pawlenty? Perhaps a rival for the VP slot?
hes poifect….Sanitorium?
Oh Goody! That’s 2 of us.
I like your way of thinking too, Kiddo 87.
tw3k at 95, I agree with Kiddo. You gotta consider from all angles. And I think he’s abundantly aware of that.
No one ever said this was going to be easy.
Redd. You must feel like you’re herding cats. We’ll get there. We just have to run thru a bunch of panic-scenario-themes 1st, apparently.
Deep thanks to you for your tireless efforts to help us tease out the wheat from the chaff, rocks & sludge.
Hmmmmm…Brownback might mend a few Catholic fences, too. Isn’t he of the Opus Dei bent these days, having switched over from his evangelical conversion a few years back?
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Hardin Smith:
“…neither of them are saints, nor are they surrounded by as many dirty trickster sinners as McCain.”
And that is an argument for EITHER of them? Come on Sister Smith, the political tactics of the two campaigns and their view of how democracy should work are in stark contrast to each other and portend very different things for the future of participant democracy beyond this fall. Where each camp looks for votes and how positive and pro-active they are in reaching those constituencies is as telling as ANY position paper or pledge in a campaign debate.
No, I won’t stop callin’ for a light on BOTH camps and I want everyone to not only ask but answer for themselves the questions I have raised …and before ya take another whack at me, read Ari Berman’s piece in The Nation, I hope it unsettles you as much as it does me.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THIS PRIMARY IS NOW OBAMA VRS MCCAIN IN DRAG!!
thats a really good thing
I don’t agree. If we were nearly half red & half blue before, IMO we are now way over the 50% blue mark now, way over.
But if you keep saying that you may get a few to believe you.
Which piece? Ari’s done a number of them on all sides of the campaigns this year…
Yeah, but Novakula always has an agenda, so that may just mean that whoever he’s in with at the moment doesn’t like Pawlenty.
I was away and unaware of the replies to my assertion above till now.
I base my estimate on the way the vote went in Texas and Ohio. These states were supposed to go to Obama according to polls. The fact that they went decidedly towards Clinton and there was significant crossover votes were the key factors at arriving at my conclusion.
If I find a link with data about voting behavior in those states, I’ll surely pass it along. But logic speaks volumes.
From those links, it’s clear that the Repub crossover votes for Obama are because they like him and they’ll vote for Obama in the General.
The overwhelming majority of Clinton crossover is to throw a wrench into the General Election, again based on those same links and many others. Lush Limpballz right now has a giant button on his homepage with Hillary’s logo and text saying Vote Hillary, and drag out this primary as long as possible. Huge difference.
Plus, people realize Bill Clinton did a one-on-one interview for Lush’s show yesterday, right? It was with the fill-in host, and Bill was repeating all the usual talking points. Disturbing to say the least.
Frankly I’m getting quite sad seeing so many fellow Dems defending Hillary still and lumping them all together saying stuff like, ”They all do it. They all suck, etc..” We finally have a clear difference in the Presidential and so many are opting for the same old, same old.
The thing was that everyone was so happy to see the voter turnout for the primary that people weren’t too dismayed about the lines. And yes, I was thrilled with the results of working the line and with so many people coming to caucus. Thanks for noticing.
Hmm, inquiring minds want to know…*g*
Isn’t Novak Cheney’s guy? In that case, it does come down to Dick’s choice.
btw, I meant what I said in yesterday’s poo flinging thread. If it needs to keep re-appearing, it will.
March 17, 1008 “The Dean Legacy”
I thought Novakula was Cheney’s surrogate, or was he Rove’s surrogate ? - dear gawd my head is fuzzy this morning
2008
Frankly I’m getting quite sad seeing so many fellow Dems defending Hillary still and lumping them all together saying stuff like, ”They all do it. They all suck, etc..” We finally have a clear difference in the Presidential and so many are opting for the same old, same old.
Why does it make you sad that not everyone has the same opinion as you?
The longer it goes on the more money is drained away from the general election. And the more mud they throw at each other the more mud the GOP will collect and use during against us in the general election.
Going much longer will hurt the Dem’s, IMO.
Yep.
And he not only bowed out early (unlike Huckabee), but also went to bat for McCain among the conservatives almost as soon as he left the race.
The Catholic angle would hold some appeal in trying to contest some of the oldline urban catholic strongholds like Philly and St Louis where conservative Catholics could make a difference in the statewide race.
Hahaha. So, you live in PA?
bonkers — I love you, but you have Obama blinders on if you think that BOTH campaigns aren’t trying to aggressively court crossover votes in open primary states. If they weren’t trying to do so, their political strategists ought to be fired. Or if you think that there aren’t always going to be some malice-filled people who hate the other party who try to cause mischief (remember the “Vote For Mitt!” maneuver for Dems in Michigan?).
I am indeed, Kiddo! Makin’ lemonade as fast as i can. And I, like you, have enuf sense to let cats presume to herd themselves. Easiest way, and Redd’s a master of the art, even when she must be bone-tired.
Good luck with the kitchen. We had new stove put in one year during Thanksgiving week, right after I had knee surgery. Hope your carpentry goes well. Lahoma must be excited too. Once those dang carpenters get outta her way. *waves to Lahoma* ;->
Absolutely!
FWIW, the Obama camp didn’t think they were going to win Ohio — and haven’t for a while based on numbers trends there for weeks. And TX was for all intents and purposes a split, which was also anticipated by both campaigns.
Has Rush recommended voting for Hill again, recently?
That is not good.
Now you’re flinging facts!
I was just talking about Texas…
We do know that the 50 state strategy is a winner.
Who is concerned that Republicans are crossing over to “ratfuck” the Dems and stick us with Hilary? This is right out of Rove’s playbook. I don’t welcome all these Republicans crossing over and voting in our primary. They’ve picked their candidate and now they want to pick our candidate also? Great. We get two Republican-picked candidates facing off.
This is right along in line with what Jane said yesterday: they are going back to their playbook of picking our Dem candidate for us.
Er, I think you might want to look at a broader range of polls on Texas and Ohio before reaching that conclusion. There were polls that showed Obama winning, but they were by no means the majority, especially in Ohio. I was a bit disappointed that Obama didn’t pull out a primary win in Texas, because I’m an optimist and get caught up in the excitement, but the result is not at all out of line with the range of polls. And I wasn’t at all surprised by the result in Ohio.
Just listening to the Hill tout her record and she said “you know” more than a University of Alabama cornerback!
Oh, you must mean those folks in our party who’ve been kissing Bush’s ass for the past seven years. The ones who folded time and again straight up to Telcom Immunity. Yep, ya can always count on them. (Land Snark)
One of the MSNBC panelists (you all know him, I can’t think of his name…) was making a case that PA has changed from its rustbelt days and Obama might be able to campaign effectively there. However, having the oldest avg age might cut in HC’s favor…what say you?
goodness me!?! are you fightin’ all the sides in that battle yer wagin? don’t go gettin’ singed to a cinder, and by yer own hand ta’ boot. i can hear the sizzling flesh from here.
*reaches for lead shield*
The 50 State Strategy has made a huge difference in so many places. It’s genius, and has been sorely needed for a long, long time.
This Californian is lovin’ the 50 state thing.
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen tbsa:
“Frankly I’m getting quite sad seeing so many fellow Dems defending Hilary still and lumping them all together saying stuff like, ‘They all do it, they all suck etc.’”
Thank you Citizen tbsa, and that is exactly what is emerging from this primary battle, it is the old corporatist politics of division and disillusion vrs. the politics of inclusion and decentralization - the politics of the possible vrs. the politics that nothing is possible.
KEEP THE FAITH,WE AIN’T DONE YET!!
Yes, and also the people who haven’t been. Nice try at a stereotype, but I happen to know that a lot of them are also progressive activists and some folks who have been working their asses off on telecom immunity and poverty issues, among others. This is not a race that anyone can completely generalize, not this year. So I suggest we stop trying to do so and stick to verifiable facts.
Sorry if everyone already knows this but the story about Hillary putting the press in the men’s room is true!
As one commenter at HuffPo said, it’s Hillaryous!
I love it!!! She’s not kissing up to them!! Go Hil!!!!!!!
It will be really hard for McCain to throw mud in the fall, he’s already hip deep in Chimpy’s bullshit.
So I suggest we stop trying to do so and stick to verifiable facts.
I don’t think many people here but you do that. . .and I am not being snotty!
I know both camps want crossovers, but my point is still the same - the majority of Hillary’s crossovers are specifically to disrupt and hurt our chances in Nov. The majority Obama’s crossovers are because they actually like him. One of the links you provided upthread clearly states this based on some polls.
This is a huge difference.
And I did not support Kos’s efforts to do the crossover thing in Mich either. Precisely the kind of thing of I’d love to see start backfiring on people that try it.
Speaking of the 50 state strategy, Howard Dean deserves a major role in brokering our nominee.
so???
goest thou & tell both campaigns what you just told us.
rinse.
repeat.
Today’s Froomkin is up, and right on target, as usual:
Emphasis added.
That bolded phrase is evidence to me that a fair chunk of the crossover vote isn’t mischief, but honest support. Even GOPers are tired of BushCo, and McCain’s promise to stay the BushCo course isn’t terribly appealing. So, they start to look at the Dems, and — wonder of wonders! — found some things they liked. Some voted for Obama, others Clinton — and that’s got to worry the McCain folks a great deal.
Texas hasn’t gone decidely for Clinton. She’s slightly ahead in getting delegates from the primary, but it’s looking like Obama’s handily ahead in the caucuses and that overall she’ll probably get less delegates from Texas than Obama. We still have two more levels of convention before all the primary and caucus delegates are assigned and that doesn’t end til June 7. That will account for all of our 228 delegates, except the 12 superdelegates whom I’m not guessing about.
Let’s see, you’re saying Indies and Pukes vote for Obama because they like him and they vote for Hillary because they don’t like her, right?
OK, which one is better? You want the crossovers to like your candidate?
Well, really, it depends how they do it. Spending more money now doesn’t necessarily mean there will be less for the general — people who support their candidate enough to donate in the primary are (pardon the pun) more “invested” and lots of them will dig deep to follow up in the general. And while it’s always the conventional wisdom that primary fights give ammunition to the other party, I haven’t seen a lot of evidence that “even other Democrats say…” attacks are effective enough that they get used much. There have been a few attacks that damage the Democratic brand (which I won’t mention specifically, to avoid prompting poo-flinging), and I hope they have the sense to avoid those. But almost all of the fight so far, while I may find it annoying as a supporter of one candidate, has not been anything that’s going to help the GOP in the fall.
Ok, but the sooner we thin the herd of DINO’s the better I’ll feel.
I agree with you. Don’t want to sound like Pollyanna but I think we’re in really good shape. We have 2 very energetic candidates who will continue to hold the attention on OUR campaign while McCain drones on around the country boring people to tears.
I’ll take the crossdressers any day!
And Howard Dean should be promoted to Running Mate.
I think rush is rapidly becoming irrelevant.
But then I’m nuts, according to some squirrels.
If someone’s alone and spooks hisownself, but no one else sees it, did he? is he? will the earth survive.
*offers shovel and broom*
Are you saying that all that has happened so far is that Texans have picked the people who will pick the people who will pick the people who will pick the presidential candidate?
Yikes.
Is that code? :)
tw3K@95
It seems like just the opposite to me. As an artist, I assume you work from the broad to the detailed in landscape, portraiture, or still life. Otherwise, you end up with a wonderfully painted detail which is totally out of proportion or out of place. In this case, the broad is to replace the Republicans in charge of the executive and the legislature. The details are the specific replacements, which may have to be worked on as time goes on.
tbsa was quoting my comment in order to make some lame dig at what I was saying.
As usual, you re-stated it brilliantly, so thanks!
McSame VP choice
how about - darkhorse Marc Racicot
young, ‘clean’, not too fundie, good Pub bona fides and oh by the way LOBBYIST !
I’d say yes. Especially if you want them to vote for the Dem candidate in the general election.
Aw right, Obama going after team Clinton’s taxes!
Not to mention all the superdelegates that are state and DNC officials, not congresspersons.
Bloggers up on MSNBC
LOL!
Yes, I want them to like my candidate.
We talk all the time about “swinging the pendulum” back to our side. We have some actually doing it now. This is good for our Republic. United We Stand!
heh
Hi Raven.
Herro!
Chimp and McCain on deck!
I think that falls in his job description, actually.
That chore is gonna suck, I bet.
The issue with turn out is for the dem leadership to not take their out pouring foe granted.
The people want to be rid of this administration and their policies. The dems need to understand that THIS applies to the congress as well.
We want to sweep out these creeps.
Obi may not be the cat’s meow, but to the people he is a breath of fresh air. His experience is fine. he needs to read the rebellion felt by the people.
And Hill’s people need to understand that too. The dems have failed the people as much as the Rs.
WE WANT NE DEMS. Thanks Howie!
Yeah, the tv folks tried to explain this last night. all that can be announced after staying up all night is who won the popular vote…and whoever wins that can toot their horn. The delegate victory isn’t announced until a number of days later, when everyone has mentally moved onto the next battleground.
Do I have this right, GW?
Get far enough away from DC and the distinctions drawn about the wonders
wrought by the DLC and the Superdelegates fade… out in flyover working
class country the reality has set in that they have been had by the DLC
Bushco alliance, the Lieberman set. The democratic wing of the democratic
party would like a chance to reshuffle the political deck, or better, get
a fresh one.
And totally insufferable! Can you imagine that disgusting twerp as the President? My stomach roils…
yup, I just think that kiddo spends so much energy on focused on the presidential race that he forgets about the national and state legislatures.
I see it differently. I think if we can’t win without a real Democrat, given recent events, we never will. And if the crossovers like him, he’s not a real Democrat. That’s how I see it.
None of you Obama supporters is the least bit distressed that your candidate is popular among the Pukes? That the states he’s won are, almost without exception, red states?
Well, that’s kind of true everywhere. Here in VA, the primary picked the number of people for each candidate who will pick the president. Next, we have congressional-district conventions to pick some of the actual people who will pick the president, and other people who will go to the state convention and pick the rest of the actual people.
It’s especially interesting this year because of the possibility that the convention could go to a second ballot where delegates can be cajoled into switching candidates. So the campaigns are especially interested in getting solid, loyal delegates who will stick with them.
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Adie:
“Are you fightin’ all the sides in that battle yer wagin’…I ken hear the sizzling flesh from here.”
I appreaciate you concern but don’t worry about me, dear (generic), I been pissed at, shot at and called much worse’n you could ever imagine and I’m still standin’…but your question about which side I’m on disturbs me, ‘cuz I’m a democrat with a small “d” and that means I’m on the side of truth, justice and the American way, and I care not only about who gains power but how they get it and who they are usin’ it on and for. So I don’t give a good Goddam whether the politician calls him or herself a Democrat or a Vegetarian, whether they wear a skirt or a pinstripe suit or bake cookies or bar-b-que ribs…I care about whether or not they advance the struggle for justice, equal protection and the extension of representative democracy. And it don’t matter who it is, I’ll put ‘em under the same heat, they gotta answer the same questions and be able ta look God in the eye when the time comes.
KEEP THE FAITH AND WATCH OUT THE RIGHTS WE ARE LOSIN’ ARE YOURS TOO!!!
Chimp and McCain on
deckthe plank!There. Fixed it for ya.
Doesn’t come out that way when I say it!
You understand it perfectly! Hahaha. When I was explaining yesterday to people waiting in line to vote how and why to come caucus later, people could hardly believe their ears that the system was so insane. Some got really upset at me. I just said, “This was NOT my idea. I’m only explaining it and preparing you for how it works.” That seemed to diffuse a lot of the energy around it.
I want to ask a question and am very interested in hearing ideas. This is not in any way intended to be in the arena of flinging poo or my candidate hangs the moon and yours is Satan.
We all watch the same TV, see much of the same web sites–I get my cues from links and the lists on blogs like this one, Jeralyn’s extensive list, KOS, Marcy’s etc. etc. and the concensus of late night TV all channels was that Hillary had deployed a Kitchen Sink strategy. She hit Obama with negatives, is campaigning very negatively and it seemed to work very well.
And again I’m not flinging anything. I’m looking at this much like the football trash talks that go up on Marcy’s site on days before games but not for trash talk–but rather this way. The Giants have so and so rushing, and the Patriots have so and so, what can one coach do to counter the other’s strengths.
Here’s what I want to ask: HRC has gone negative since Wisconsin. Her stategy going into the last 4 states was to have her surrogates go negative everytime they got on the air as well as to say in different ways that she was the most qualified.
And it seems to have worked quite well. She won the states, although considering a few months ago, she didn’t win Texas by near the amount that was projected but clearly her strategy worked.
From the concensus of most blogs, most TV network “pundits” Hillary’s Kitchen Sink campaign was a turn negative and it worked and it worked very well.
The red phone worked, although some communications experts said that Obama countered it–but Monday morning quaterbacking I think it got her votes because his counter was so much like hers.
What I want to pose is this, and purely from a stategy standpoint and considering the consequences somewhat for Democrats.
I believe if Obama doesn’t go just as negative it’s over for him. He’s winnning in delegates. Right now with more delegates to come in for him from the Texas caucuses over the next few days the count is
Obama 1307
Clinton 1175
Super Delegates Clinton 254 Obama 211
Those are fluid depending on future performance and lots of other factors.
Dean seems to be forced to come to some kind of decison on how to handle Michigan and Florida. I expect that will be the subject of a few threads here and EW.
So I posed this last night and people said “I don’t want him to go negative because it hurts the party.”
That I understand. But I don’t think he can survive unless he shows the same toughness. When she went negative, it hurt him. It didn’t matter that her surrogages weren’t telling the truth about an Afghanistan oversight committee he doesn’t serve on–it hurt. The red phone worked for her. Overall, looking at her like a football team strategy–she is coming across as the tough veteran and she synthesizes it with the usual examples all candidates use–”I talked to the steelworker, I talked to the mother who has day care and works very hard, etc. etc. and etc. and yada.
So….I think if Obama doesn’t go negative–for example every one of her surrogates now is tossing Rezko–they don’t have to know anything about federal law or the trial–they just know it’s a word they can use–kind of like a kid learning the “f” word for the first time and it works for them.
Obama hasn’t gone negative on any issues personally or his surrogates really, although some of the commercials that his ad team produces have.
Do you think since she is definitely going negative, that he should or needs to. Please don’t look at this if you’re a Hill supporter as “I hope he gets out tomorrow so whatever.” Rather I’m interested in your opinion as strategy.
BTW I put a TV on and I just heard “The Obama campaign wants to know why her tax returns aren’t released from Chris Jansen” so a little of what I pose is already starting. But there are about 25 other issues that one could hit on the Clinton’s and I’ve listed them and won’t now as to money and where it comes from.
I don’t see how Obama can continue to “turn the other cheek” and survive. I’m interested if anyone thinks he can.
And there’s this. If you turn on any urban radio station–I did this last night–people are saying right and left “If we’re disfranchized by super delegates, we will stay home in the general. Here’s what this means as to the South. One of the main voting blocks this year in the South are African Americans. Already I know in several states that people who are viable candidates are making a decision right now whether to challenge conservative Republicans for the House and the Senate. They really need a big African American turnout in the South and in other areas to win for these Congressional/Senate races in what are called the downticket races–i.e. the idea that if turnout that Christy described is huge in the general that it will help the downticket races.
Turnout for the Republicans will be huge I predict–whoever is the candidate.
So I sincerely want to know–given that I don’t think Obama can win without going very negative just as she has gone successfully what do you think? And this isn’t marriage counseling so the idea that each party should take the high road is a ship that has sailed.
There is the element that this is going to help McCain and of course if the primary were over last night whoever could have ended it it would have helped the Dems. But that’s not reality.
The Clintons have very smartly focused intently on one state to the next–Obama has stayed above that fray to an extent although he has organized well. He has very consciously not attacked Clinton personally and he has not used Kitchen Sink negatives, and if he doesn’t start, IMO, he’s over.
So I just want to hear what people think on a negative campaign to counter a negative campaign. If you were the candidate, what would you do? And also on the very real threats if you turn on African American radio that if the Super Delegates decide this and take it away from Obama and he wins the delegates, or if Michigan and Florida were to take it away from Obama they will stay home in droves–and I’ve heard callers saying this who voted for Clinton in the primary–many of them. Turn on your radio and see if you think I’m kidding.
I have tried hard to figure out how he could win without going negative and I can’t. I value your ideas. And of course now McCain has the RNC machinery and funding will go up from the $25 million a month he can now expect to raise. Unfortunately the Democratic primary is going all the way to the convention so they won’t be able to spend near as much time profiling campaign as he can profiling Obama and Clinton although McCain and the Republicans felel they already have Clinton profiled for their voters or potential voters.
Thanks
You’d rather they stayed red?
McCain’s a no show, Chimp doin a soft shoe. . .and the grunts, they eat shit and die.
Every time I think I’m starting to understand this system, there is a new wrinkle!
Oh, and the 126 out of 228 delegates we send to national will be decided from the primary. 12 are superdelegates. 67 are from the byzantine layered bouffant convention look.
Can you summarize that?
I don’t worry about you, dear (generic).
Heck. Even porcupines manage to proceed and evolve in this world.
Enjoy your path, thrower.
Absolutely. It’s lovely. Almost wipes out the memory of Tweety’s stupid attempts to make all the good news for Obama (such as young Hispanics going heavily for him) into bad news, somehow.
But even he couldn’t erase my high from attending my Texas caucus.
Just like the stories say, there was some delay and confusion because the poor official who’d been doing caucuses for over 30 years had to handle 200-300 people. He was used to being pretty much alone. heh.
Jeebus, dude. Your “comment” is well over 1200 words. This is an imposition on fellow commenters. People point this out time and again and still you persist. Give us all a break and just ask the question.
Thanks.
Kerry rolled over and they kicked his ass, there may be a lesson there.
I do not agree with you. There was no “fear” vote for Hillary in Ohio. Hillary won Ohio for a simple reason. Ohio is in an economic struggle (leading the country on economic struggle in key sectors). She addressed the economic issues specifically more so than Obama did. Hillary also won the endorsement of the Ohio governor and his words were all “build a better economy” base and that Hillary’s plans would be good for Ohio.
No fear, just common sense on economic issues. Ohio really did not “hear” that message from Obama and he had a chance. John Edwards messgage was gaining quite a bit of strength in Ohio just before he suspended his election.
Please do not “couch” Ohio voters in the “fear” context.
Obama also really “flubbed” a press conference here in Ohio when he was asked about the whole NAFTA - Canada leak…
BTW, I was for Obama for the most part and he won my vote when he showed up to vote against immunity and Hillary did not. His efforts for the Ohio vote were not as “fire in the belly” as Hillary’s and I think Ohio voters noticed. Many on local call-in shows in Franklin County area (a trendy “ground zero” for winning the Ohio vote in past elections) were stating this particular point. As an Obama supporter, I have to agree. Hillary out shined Obama in Ohio.
What did you do, cut and paste it into Word and check word count?
From which there is not even much by way of results yet.
Yea, so the Hillary women they had on the panel I saw who were so “afraid” were not representative? I think they were.
IMHO or perhaps I amjust hoping: Obama seems to have more fight in him than I perceived in Kerry. Maybe it’s called drive. And Hillary certainly has a lot of stamina.
You should get a blog, then give us a teaser para and a link.
He thinks Hillary going negative worked and wants to know how Obama can win without going negative.
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Adie:
“…even porcupines manage to proceed and evolve in theis world.”
I do worry aboutchu though, dear, cockroaches ain’t changed in millions a years.
KEEP THE FAITH AND DON’T LETCHER MOUTH WRITE ANY CHECKS YER ASS CAN’T CASH!!!
if I were an operative/decision maker, he’d be a ‘good choice’
they currently don’t have any rising stars (wha ? Michael Steele ?!?!) and fortunately will pick someone like Barbor, Pawlenty or Lott. and from a purely gut level, something tells me McSame wont allow a comer or a semi-comer like Pawlenty on the ticket with him - his love affair with the spotlight goes back decades
1. Yeah, it’s working so well that she’s losing.
2. I only read the first couple of paragraphs and the last couple of lines of your extremely long comment. Usually I don’t read your comments at all - especially when they are this long. Just so you know.
Obama needs to hang that albatross known as WJC around HRC’s neck. The
sellouts of the 1990’s, the walk away from Glass-Stegal that enabled
the mortgage debt marketing crisis, Big Dog gave away the remains of
the market regulations that kept a pretence of legality to the Ponzi
scheme known as wall street. The Clintonistas argue that their negative
attacks are mild compared to what Obama would face in the general…
probably true, but turnabout is fair play and if he will not fight for
himself then nobody will fight for him… lets get it on.
No, I do not think they were. I worked with a number of groups here and the language was not fear based at all. There was a great deal of knowledge about Hillary’s work on economic issues and that was the base for most people. Ohio was not “hearing” Obama’s economic plan and how it would benefit Ohio.
primary was over last night. 126 delegates are assigned from that. 12 are superdelegates. the other 67 come from the caucuses. last night was precinct caucuses. we who have been elected as delegates (yes, moi - i was one of the last ones standing by the time we finished with the count) then go to the state senatorial district convention march 29 and elect delegates to go to the state convention june 6-7, where we’ll definitively assign the 67 caucus delegates. god help us all.
at this point, clinton has won the primary and gets 51% of the delegates from the primary - around 53. obama looks to be winning in the caucuses, based on how the precincts are reporting. and that lead should carry over through to state.
If Obama goes negative, he’s doing Hillary a favor cause that’s what the repubs will do in the fall. Of course that line comes from Hillary’s camp when they questioned Obama’s credentials. Now IMO her performance on sixty minutes talking him at his word was Rovian.
The national and state legislatures are not going to affect the composition of the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future.
Absolutely. I half-heard some pundit this a.m. on the clock-radio (was waking up) say that Obama or Clinton might want to get “even‘ independents and Republicans to vote for them in the fall.
??? The assumption seemed to be that you normally expect only your own party members to vote for you!
W lists all these noble attributes that the nominee must have & which he foolishly thinks that he, King George, embodies. What an asshole, colloquially referred to as a “Gaper”.
(((NFT))). Tears in my eyes reading that. Yes, we want to stand for truth and justice, as a real basic beginning.
Yup. So far, he seems to be fighting clean, but he is fighting.
Pete Pierce
Shakespeare said “brevity is the soul of wit”
Think about it.
Bingo. Nothing gets by you, Rave! But one can just look and see that it’s longer than many posts by actual posters invited by the FDL hosts to post. And I know FDL will ask new posters to stay within a certain word limit for certain topics.
And, at least on the old site, new threads need to be started when comments reach a certain length or use up a certain amount of space. I think.
HAH
Yes, if the option is to try to appeal to the Pukes to win them over.
Digby had a good post about this the other day, how conservatives keep their eyes on the prize but liberals tend to want to let bygones be bygones, reach across the aisle and “get things done”. That’s why we always get our asses handed to us by whatever morons the Pukes want to run against us.
My sample size is small, but I do know quite a number of folks who respect both Democratic candidates, yet firmly rejected Hillary precisely because of her negative campaigning. And I know these people well enuf to tell you they are very well-informed, intelligent voters.
fwiw
good question. i was surprised at some of the people, and their negative reaction to her made me wonder just how deeply this !FED UP! train of thought runs in the electorate.
it worries me, because it’s not a large jump away from “throw ALL the bums out!”
imo, we MUST do all we can to
discourage people fromencourage people to avoid making that jump.Norski, Thanks.
He’s trying to emulate the verbosity of his preferred candidate!
Wow, that’s quite an explanation. Thank you. I don’t promise to remember the finer details, but at least I know who to ask! As I recall, there was a similar situation in Nevada, where the popular vote went one way, and delegate count went another…i think O got the delegates?
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Raven and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“McCain’s a no show, Chimp’s doin’ a soft shoe…and the grunts, they eat shit and die.”
Awe man, the truth from someone who knows…I wonder how many folks in sight a yer words know jest how terribly true they are, and what it took to learn that lesson.
Peace brother, you’ve earned it.
KEEP THE FAITH AND DO THE RIGHT THING..GOD’S WATCHIN’!!
Bush tap dances while waiting for McCain.
Fuck it and Drive On bro
;->
Sure, Raven. I am sorry for the long post but here’s the down and dirty. this is not to fling mud at Hillary or anything or anyone else. I’m asking about strategy.
Hillary did very well last night. She’s behind in delegates and the arguement they want tobe able to make to Super Delegates or at a brokered convention is that they are within 100 pledge delegates. Hillary’s team made a conscious decision to go negative anyway they could. Her surrogates like Terry McAuliffe or Wolfson, Tubbs Jones, Jackson Leigh, the blond from her campaign, Lisa Caputo were all given negative talking points since Wisconsin.
They are flinging Rezko even though they don’t understand anymore about the Rezko trial or federal law in general than a kid with the “f” word. They are saying Obama didn’t oversee Afghanistan when he isn’t on any committees that even do it–but she is on 3.
So there are 2 bottom lines. If Obama doesn’t go negative–then he’s over. He loses. He won’t win Pennsyvania, or Kentucky and he might lose other states.
I don’t see how he can’t go negative and start hitting Hillary with the 25 or so issues he can she has never had to really answer mostly dealing with money and the Clintons.
Here’s my 2nd question and you’re in Georgia somewhere Augusta maybe, forgive me if I don’t remember. I’ll use an example in your state. Saxby Chambliss is one of the most consistent Bush voters in the Senate. So is Johnny Issackson. I know for a fact that a very formidiable candidate is spending a good part of every day this week trying to decide whether to get in to go after Chambliss. These kind of people are thinking about going after Republicans in many Southern States. They need black voters and they need them badly to win. For the first time turnout is huge and we need these people to turnout in the general if a coatail effect is going to get them elected.
If you turn on some of your local black talk radio stations, I predict you are going to hear people calling in in droves saying “If we’re screwed out of what we voted for–if Clinton takes this election away from Obama by Superdelegates and Michigan and Florida–we ain’t votin’ in the general.
That will keep these candidates like the one going after Chambliss (if he gets in in two weeks) from winning. The Republicans are going to up the contributions for McCain and their candidates in a huge way. Right now Obama can raise $60-80 million a month. McCain $25 million tops. That’s going to change.
So bottom line–I don’t see how Obama can win if he doesn’t start realling attacking Clinton. He has not done it. She has attacked him viciously through her surrogates and commercials.
Do you think Obama should go negative as in a fith to the kill–She is and she’s killing him now although slowly. He hasn’t taken out the knife or the gun but I think he needs to. There is no other way.
And if she steals the election via SDs blacks in the South are going to stay home in the general. Turn on your radio if you think I’m kiddin’.
I really value your input. I don’t see any other way.
You are right about that. But a better congress will stop capitulating on the wholesale giveaway of our civil liberties.
It’s only distressing if the candidate is taking Republican positions to appeal to them, like the DLC. If he’s getting them by talking about getting out of Iraq, about government being a positive force in people’s lives, about jobs and schools and healthcare, then no, I am not the least bit distressed by it. These are things that a large majority of Americans support, and even in many cases a majority of Republicans support, and if he can get them to vote for their interests instead of against them, then it’s a good thing.
It may be hard for us hardcore partisans to understand, but party identification, for most people, is not a rigid thing. My father, a lifelong Republican, is not one any more. A friend who works at the Pentagon has gone from being a Republican to being an independent (who just happens to vote for Democrats almost all the time.) I was an Edwards supporter, so I understand and support fighting corrupt Republican officials, but I also see the value of not fighting the Republican rank and file if we can turn things our way without doing that. We have an opportunity to convince a lot of moderate Republicans that their party has left them permanently, and if we’re going to drive a stake into the heart of corrupt, warmongering, theocratic modern conservatism, that’s one of the things we need to do.
And as for the “red states,” I’d caution you not to buy into the simplistic presentation of our political media about “winning” states. This isn’t winner-take-all, and most of the margins haven’t been huge, so both of these candidates have gotten lots of votes in both “blue” and “red” states.
Which is incomprehensible to me. In our precinct we tallied 728 people’s preferences probably in about an hour with very careful observors and double-checking all the numbers. Except for CNN we were all out of the building at about 11:30pm with all our results. All I can guess is that some of the results haven’t been called in. Can’t imagine why.
dayam greenwarrior - thanks for being there yesterday (your stamina is amazing) and for your report and explanation. you’ve really helped me to understand the process there.
thank you.
TPM is predicting a 10 delegate gain for Clinton once the TX caucuses are sorted out, + or - a couple. Obama will likely make those back and then some in WY and MS. There are few states remaining and only one with a lot of delegates at stake.
Obama picked up three more supers yesterday, and even one today with the endorsement of Dayton, OH’s mayor. Hillary has hardly picked up a single super in weeks now, while Obama has gained around 50. Obama made up approx 12% in OH, and 18% in TX in less than two weeks.
Hillary basically has no chance.
Pete - I think we already have an answer with Obama’s campaign raising the issue of Clinton’s tax returns (an issue I must say I like since I have a strong preference for transparency overall and I’d rather not have any surprises that give the Rs an advantage later on)
The question is whether the Obama campaign can attack without playing into McCain’s hands. Sadly the Clinton campaign over the past week decided to do just that and now feel they are vindicated (though the actual results are minimal in delegate count and Obama was not expected to win with OH or TX)
so I fear we will see more R style attacks rather than legit issues raised about each candidate.
Thanks bonkers.
Everyone have a great poo-free day. I’m out.
BTW knife, gun,and fight to the finish were obviously metaphorical. I’m not advocating real violence–I simply mean that one candidate has decided to go as negative as possible and I think the other needs to go as negative as possible too.
And bebefore anyone says “Oh no I want him to take the high road” let me remind you–she’s not taking the high road. She’s going to continue to be negative through June. So that Genie is out of the bottle big time. I don’t see how he can sit there and turn the other cheek and he has losses in 3 states although he still won delegates in those states to proove it to him.
*raising hand*
After Kucinich and Edwards were gone, I went undecided. Til Hillary started going negative. Now, I’m actively working for Obama and will caucus for him March 29 here in state senate district 25 in Texas.
Team Clinton went negative after Iowa, not WI. In fact, this negativity really helped fuel Obama’s rise judging by personal anecdotes and countless comments and polls around the blogs. That fact that Hillary was able to get some result from them in TWO states is not cause for panic IMO.
Notice how the overwhelming majority of her wins are in states that made up part of Terry McAuliffe’s 15 State Strategy when he was DNC chair? Perhaps Team Clinton is benefiting from pumping so much money into these states over many years, and building up a machine there that “owes them.”
Don’t lose sight that Obama made up double digits in both TX and OH in less than two weeks. His message is still working.
And if she steals the election via SDs blacks in the South are going to stay home in the general. Turn on your radio if you think I’m kiddin’.
This is the kind of thing that turns people off. You are souring people against Obama that might possibly have to vote for him. This is not helpful.
hah! you’d be nuts to clutter your mind with those details if you don’t need to remember them. my own head wants to explode everytime i explain our process.
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Bonkers:
“Hillary basically has no chance.”
From yer lips ta God’s ear there Citizen, but if this thing gets ta the convention and she’s within 100 delegates, she has the old-line muscle ta steal it in the backroom.
And yes it does matter how ya get power…don’tchu believe that old Naderite song: “There’s not a dime’s worth of difference.”
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, FASCISM DOESN’T LIKE QUESTIONS!!
Hi Siun, were Hillary’s “Is Obama a Muslim” comments on 60 Minutes parsed …
I thought her meme that the MSM were treating Obama too gently overlooked the fact that it is McCain who is being fawned over and should she use that line in the fall, the MSM will lambaste her as whiney …
thom hartman gave a great point on the radio today concerning telecom immunity
he said they don’t need it, they complied, they have lawyers and they would not have taken a chance, he said the only ones that need telecom immunity would be the president and he’s certain the telecoms have all the authority they needed to do what the president wanted
it’s what the president asked for that the president is trying to hide with this immunity
normally I would agree with that point but we do know some telecoms DID refuse to be part of the program
so thom’s assesment leaves some questions
I would caution you not to get taken in by the well-earned PR victory for the Clinton campaign (as opposed to nomination victory) that is all over the media today. Particularly don’t fall into the shallow reasoning of our political media that everything that just happened is directly attributable to the visible things that have happened recently, like ads and speeches. I don’t think there is any basis for concluding that Obama is “done” if he doesn’t do exactly the same thing, or that the recent attacks will continue to have the same effect over the month and a half (!) until Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, what the Clinton campaign achieved was doing well in Ohio, and fighting to a draw in Texas, where they were up by fifteen points or more a month ago, and not really gaining significant ground in the delegate race.
The Obama campaign needs to respond more effectively to attacks, but as Christy said, in a way that doesn’t undermine the basic appeal of the campaign. So no, I don’t think that going very nasty would be good, in fact, I think it would be shooting himself in the foot.
you’re most welcome. given how much i enjoy your posts and comments, it pleases me i lot that what i’m contributing has value for you. it’s a pleasure to return the favor.
Petrocelli - the 60 Minutes comments seemed to be interpreted based on who you support, with Obama supporters seeing dogwhistle, Clinton supporters saying it was not there.
Whoa there, big fella! Isn’t there a big difference between demanding truth and clarity on issues, and going negative with misinformation &/or sleaze?
You have a point. I think he OUGHT to go after her on issues, with proper referencing & truth-in-the-telling. They BOTH should be doing that. Isn’t that what we want from all the candidates? No problem in our house with that kind of “negative”.
Above (at 231), I was referring to intelligent voters who do their homework, and who objected to the “cheap-shot” sleaze brand of tough they felt they detected in too generous a measure by far, from the Hillary camp.
You expressed this pretty well Suin. And I don’t have to tell you though that there are a long list of other issues that Obama can start painting the walls with using his many surrogates to showcase. I’m sure you know that I’m not asking this from the standpoint of one candidate over the other. But I don’t see Obama surviving if he doesn’t go after her anuyway he can. Everytime she goes negative he gives the Republicans an issue on a silver platter to use against Obama if he’s in the general.
If he is to get the Super Delegates he needs, he needs to win Pennsylvania. She’s not going to turn back and go positive right now. She’s going to keep having Wolfson and McAluliffe come out and lie about things like Afghanistan oversight subcommittes that Obama is not even on when she’s on three of them. And people on the street don’t know and care about oversight subs. They know what a Red phone at 3AM is though and it is killing him.
How do you expect (not talking about who you’re for just as a strategic exercise if say you were a campaign manager) Obama to beat her in states like Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Indiana where she has a very established machine if he doesn’t counter her very negative ads. That 3AM Red Phone wasn’t a high road Ad. When she said that she and McCain bring rich “experience” to the Oval, and he brings nothing but an old speech that’s about as negative as you can get. When she starts using Rezko like a child uses the “F” word–all you have to do is look here to see many people mimicking Rezko who don’t have a clue what the Rezko trial is about or that Fitz is using it to go after the governor of Illinois who is in fact, “Public Official A” not Obama as a very accomplished lawyer who headlines here insisted a few weeks ago. So negative works. It works on very sophisticated people as well.
She’s negative campaigning for all she’s worth. She’s doing it very well and she’s campaigning very well with it. She’s not going to stop. She’s going to finish him unless he does the same thing. And I emphasize–turn on black radio. If she steals superdelegates and Florida and Michigan count like they are now, blacks aren’t going to support her in the general –even blacks who voted for her in the primary are calling in–and they aren’t going to support the down ticket Congressional candidates in the South who are willing to go after House and Senate seats on the strength of the enormous turnout potential in the general and the coattail (2 t’s) effect.
Thanks.
I didn’t see it myself so I was hoping for your thoughts on it … thanks for replying …
Dean and the DLC make the rules for MI and FLA. Stop acting like Hillary is going to “steal” them. Geez…
Okay, I’m not a current Wyomingite. I only lived in WY for a quarter of my life. And in adjacent states for another quarter of my life.
What I am unclear about is why there is the confidence that Wyo will go Obama on the Dem side. My contacts in that state haven’t yet indicated such confidence in the outcome.
Could someone help me out here and explain the thinking?
As an Obama supporter, I think she handled it poorly, but not with ill intent. It should have been an opportunity to smack down hard on something that all Democrats should by trying to make out of bounds for rational discourse, and treating it like a normal question was a mistake.
Team Clinton went negative after Iowa, not WI. Yes –I wanted to get this up before I left so I was wrong and sloppy in that regard. You’re quite right.
And yes he gained Delegates although not as many as he could have had he won Ohio and Texas and the media is not very conscious of that including the morning talk shows that Hill paraded onto taking a “victory lap.”
But they are atacking him viciously and I don’t see how he wins if he doesn’t attack her viciously. There are plenty of issues to go after her on. I listed them many times and they are well known. But my question was how he could survive if he doesn’t.
And the volume of mass voters aren’t FDL readers and commenters. Negative attacks appeal to their Reptilian brains.
I want to emphasize this. For people who say he shouldn’t go negative it hurts the Democrats, how in the world do you defend her going negative and hurting the democrats because she has done just that.
DNC, not DLC. (I knew what you meant, just wanted to point it out.)
Sorry if I missed this question already, but will the people who supported the person who did NOT become the nominee, still come out to vote in November, and vote for the Democratic nominee?
Here it is. Pathetic!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHFREDHB-nQ
I think it was coordinated with the Drudge/Obama-in-garb story that dominated political headlines for a couple of days last week. A Clinton staffer said in an interview last Fall that they wouldn’t rule out using Drudge in the campaign. This stuff is all coordinated.
There are a lot of good black blogs which I read regularly - and I see the same response there. Black voters - like progressives - have been taken for granted by the party for a very long time - and the racial attacks have been noted. Just as the evangelical vote is raising a similar issue on the Republican side, we’re approaching a point where voters say that candidates must earn their direct support, not simply assume it.
Turn on African American Radio. People are saying this: If Hillary steals the Super Delegates, Michigan, Florida and if the rules of the game are in fact changed in the middle, they won’t vote in the general. That hurts the candidate, and it really hurts the downticket candidates that are seriously considering challenging Republicans in Congress and the Senate. That’d be the people everyone here calls “more and better” Congresspeople.
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Redshift and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“The Obama campaign needs to respond more effectively to attacks…in a way that doesn’t undermine the basic appeal of the campaign.”
I am, generally, in agreement with you, Redshift but that’s the trouble with respondin’ to “when did you stop beating your wife” tactics. Obama can not get bogged down respinding to her attacks on him…he must turn up the heat (gee, I like that concept) on her on issues and positions INCLUDING the slimy way she’s campaingin’. Without makin’ it the only issue, Obama hasta make Mrs. Clinton look like Tricky Dick Nixon in drag… or better still, Crazy John McCain in Drag, ‘cuz that’s where she’s puttin’ herself.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITON, THIS IS JUST A BATTLE IN THE WAR!!
It’s probably too soon to tell how people will respond this time since this is a rather unusual race. Last night MSNBC kept repeating some exit polling that said 25% of Clinton voters would vote for McCain in the general while 10% of Obama supporters would. We have to take seriously McCain’s continued ability to present himself as a maverick has legs - and that the media may have like the newcomer tale of Obama and then the Clinton underdog who we’ve mistreated story for a bit, but they adore the McCain war hero story.
That’s over all four states?
We’re on similar trajectory, heh.
Obama, with backing from Dodd & Kennedy whom we admire greatly, and his background/training in law, emphasis on Constitutional law if I read an earlier post correctly a considerable while ago. Yes, and his charisma, silver tongue etc.
Given that Edwards dropped out, those were a winning combo in this household.
Still, the old finger trembled above the Edwards name in the voting booth, sigh. I take it on faith of sorts that these folks have every intention of working together closely to try to put this poor bruised country back together.
I personally am able to excuse a certain amount of fisticuffs within the party without it being a killer issue. I just wish they wouldn’t indulge. I want a clean, fair campaign that’s tough on issues, but we’re dealing with human beings here, and people get tired & desperate, the judgement meter may stray off center occasionally. I’ve already gently tapped the hands of both Dem. campaigns on that, fwiw. I probably will again.
I think they’ll lose more voters than they gain, over time, with the [poo-slinging]. Mebbe I’m naive. Mebbe not. Prolly somewhere tw’ ;->
P E A C E
YES.
There really is a distinction between highlighting differences and “negative campaigning,” though our political media is always unable to discern it.
The important point to remember is that vicious attacks work by raising the negatives of the other candidate, with the cost of raising your own, only less. Hillary’s negatives are already high, so it’s not clear how much there is to be gained there, and Obama’s negatives are relatively low, so he has more than usual to lose. That’s why it’s of questionable value for him. (Whether it’s bad for Democrats in the fall depends on the type of attack — it’s entirely possible to attack another Democrat in a way that does not hurt the Democratic “brand” for the eventual winner.)
I remain mystified why you think he can’t survive without these vicious attacks. He survived them just fine. He’s still on the path to the nomination and she’s not, unless things change. The attacks had some effect in blunting his momentum, but there’s little evidence they reversed it (and there are probably a lot of other factors involved; attributing all the effect to the attacks is simplistic.) But no matter how much is attributable to that, none of that means that she’s found the magic bullet that will work the same way from now on and the only way to combat it is to respond in kind.
I hope that Christy won’t feel that I’m flinging poo, but I wanted to restate my own discovery with regards to repubs backing HRC–I checked the contributions from my former hometown, a diehard repub community–and was shocked to find that they had overwhelmingly backed both Barack and Hillary.
They are not about to vote dem in the Fall elections..I believe it was to get rid of the one Dem who could beat all of the repubs–John Edwards.
These people are hardcore–the local radio station had a drive for donations in 2005 for the Katrina victims…well, certain Katrina victims…they mentioned a specific county in Mississippi. I had a friend check demographics and the county was white and republican…disgusting show of inhumanity towards blacks and democrats…
So, these folks are setting up not only Hillary but Barack. I can’t say I know the game plan, but I will say that they are definitely messing with the numbers.
I just hope that John Edwards is on whomever’s ticket come fall…I think that will be the way to beat the game…
Let me clarify this. If she gets Michigan and Florida counted by Dean, Pelosi, Gore and the powers that can make that decision the way they were now–again do not construe that I am pitching Obama vrsus Hilary her. Do not. If you do you miss my point. I’ve made tons of arguments for him and against her. I’m tired of that. So are other people. But I mean if Florida and Michigan are allowed to count when people did stay home and they weren’t real elections–for Jeebus sakes–Florida was done by Republicans–Governor Charlie Christ engineered that to screw with your party and mine. Michigan was done by Debbie and John Dingel–Democrats. Neither was a genuine election with each candidate bringing their tools into the state to campaign.
So let me rephrase–if they are counted the way they are now–and I don’t know if you heard Dean say last night exactly what Christy predicted he would say–he wouldn’t change the rule sin the middle of the game–black voters in the South are going to stay home in the general. If you have a radio–check me out if you think I’ve made it up. I’m listening to one say just that–and some of them voted for Hillary in the primary.
So please don’t respond as if I’m attacking your Hillary. I’m not. I’m looking at the game films. Look at it this way. She is running successful plays (negative campaigning). He has not. The tax returns are a drop in the ocean compared to what he can start hitting her with and her husband.
If you expect Obama to keep turning the other cheek, when he is smart enough to know she is painting him as a lifeless rag doll–a term used by a Firepup, or as Rachel Maddow said “a bunnie” I think you are smarter than that. I think you know she’s been negative, and he needs to go negative to survive. The material is there believe me. I’d be happy to link you to my list.
Yes…all four states and I just noticed Obama’s site has “official” numbers up now saying she only picked up 4 delegates total from yesterday. If you look at the Obama delegate counter, you can see how few states remain and how many delegates are at stake at each. This is why I think it’s over.
http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter/
Obama lost Texas and Ohio by preventing a landslide victory by Hillary in both states and might even end up gaining more Delegates on the March 4th elections … this meme is being peddled by both camps …
I think the vast majority of them will. I think whichever candidate wins, the other will campaign vigorously for them, and we’ll have months and months to forget how pissed off we were at the sucky tactics from the other side. The record turnout in Dem primaries (even when the GOP primaries were still competitive) tells the tale — people want to put the Bush era behind them, and they want to be part of that when it happens. There aren’t going to be many Democrats who will skip that opportunity.
McCain a war hero. I know he suffered as a POW for five years, but I don’t see that or any war fighting experience as a needed prerequisite for being president. Anyway, I was thinking it would be good to have both Clinton and Obama on the ticket, (not necessarily in that order), but I like the idea of putting Edwards on the ticket if that will bring more people to the polls.
We all want that Adie. But look at it this way–you’re a peaceful creative person. But if someone comes at you with a weapon while you’re walking down the street and they take their eye off the ball for a second–they’re going to hurt you or worse–and suddenly a weapon drops into your hand are you going to use it to survive?
Clinton has gone negative–she’s continuing ful bore. She has said that he brings nothng to inform his qualifications for President but an old speech. That he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing. I’m not talking about the “make nice BS–pet the kitty stuff at the debate before last.” I’m talking about what Clinton’s people are putting out day after day–red phone and all.
I don’t see how he survives without putting out his own counters and commercials critical of her as a strategy. I have not asked these questions to bash Hillary or favor Obama. I’ve simply asked them because of what I saw since Iowa, and what I saw work for her and hurt him last night.
I don’t know what in the world else he can do but answer her with the stuff she’s throwing at him out of the “kitchen sink.”
That’s why I asked. Thanks.
I have seen it stated at other sites, and I swear I saw a poll at TPM showing this not too long (can’t find it now…). I do know that he has done extremely well in some surrounding states. So you’re probably right, I shouldn’t be going around saying that without some proof. I wonder how much each of them will campaign in WY?
Obama’s campaign seems to agree with you:
http://my.barackobama.com/page.....sen/gGBHGY
Encourage HRC to stay negative, her own are so high she cannot stay
negative much longer.
Pete, alot of folks thought Dean would lose big with the 50 state strategy but he went forward anyway. Dean is the head of the DLC and he has stated time and time again that he will come up with a fair solution. You are giving some in the peanut gallery far too much credit. If Pelosi and company had that much power, Dean would never had been allowed to spend the money he spent on the 50 state strategy. Dean is a good Democrat IMO. He would never sacrifice one dem vote for a particular candidate.
But Bonkers there is a lot of momentum for her with the negative Red Phone claims and claims he has no experience even though I have begged people to define her experience and they can’t and haven’t and I’m trying to stay away from bashing onecandidate to favor mine.
So what I’m trying to get you to look at is she’s hurting Obama in Penn and Kentucky. I grew up in one of them. I know the people there really well. They aren’t Bonkers. They aren’t FDL participants (the bell shaped curve of them) in terms of political sophistication. The red phone and the empty suit claims impress a lot of them. If it didn’t he would have slammed her in Texas and Ohio. And sure I appreciate how much of a deficit he overcame in Texas and Ohio to get the numbers that he did. I know what the delegate yeild is. She didn’t get didly out of the border counties in Texas and that’s why he’s still ahead of her in delegates this second by 1307 to 1175 with more of them coming in for him from Texas.
I think she’s hurting him bad and he can fight back. If he doesn’t people are going to say he’s Mr. Bunny, Mr. Nice Guy. Do you remember the Archie Bunker series? I want you to think about this. If Archie and Edith were standing on line or in line however you say it in your parts, to get a movie ticket, and you shoved Archie out of line–you’d get a response. If you shoved Edith out of line, she’d look bewildered and just meekly go to the back of the line.
Clinton is shoving Edith out of line right now. Archie has to come out and take care of that behavior or Obama is toast.
You mean DNC.
This is precisely why I’d like Dr. Dean to remain in his position at the DNC … to counter the Pelosi/Reid/Rahm Cabal in the Dem party …
Obama is more than holding his own, let hillary do what she does and get over it.
Dean is head of DNC…. sorry.
So, you trying to get a job with Penn or something?
1,777 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen PetePierce:
The problem with that analogy, Citizen Pete, is that one of the likely outcomes of usin’ the knife in defense is that BOTH could be mortally wounded or the defender will most likely still get hurt if not killed.
No, we make a terrible mistake to equate acceptable political tactics with unlawful actions…politics and political tacics MUST have parameters of acceptible behavior, even if they can only be enforced by the general public shunning the perpitrator. And that is the point, let’s hope Obama ken make Mrs. Clinton and her tactics look like Tricky Dick Nixon or John McCain in drag.
KEEP THE FAITH, WHATCHU DO IS EFFECTED BY HOW YA DO IT!!!
Okay–Just for the sake of what Obama could use but hasn’t I’ll link my list. If Obama wants to really go negative he can
start putting out commercials that ask these questions
I am trying with every fiber in me not to post for the purpose of flinging negatives at Hillary. But the tax returns don’t impress the coal miner in Appalacian Kentucky, or the school teacher or secretary in Louisville. The Red Phone does. They know what a phone is. They know what a baby is. They know what the Tina Feye wraparound glasses are. They know what a pant suit is. They don’t give a rat’s ass about her tax returns and I mean this politely to you.
I’m for Obama like you. I’m not hear to bash Clinton but she’s bashing the hell out of him and if he like Rachel Maddow said last night doesn’t get off the ground and stop being a bunny when a grizzled lioness is attacking him viciously, he’s going to lose.
Rezko–I can think of a zillion deals the Clintons have made. Rezko is to go after the Governor of Illionis by using the age old DOJ AUSA tactic of flipping witnesses into snitches. Many of the witnesses in that case have been flipped to snitches to go after the governor of Illinois. That’s very obvious.
I think the negative stuff will work in some states and not in others, where it actually backfires. He certainly can step it up a notch in pointing some of the facts of her “35 years of experience,” but he’d better be careful with it IMO. I don’t see him just making up things like Clinton does, so maybe it will be received well by the electorate. He can lose Kentucky and Penn and still is gonna win anyway. It’s almost statistically impossible for her to come back, and he’s gained 4 more supers in the last 24 hours, including one in OH today.
He’s gonna have problems in every state where Terry McAuliffe and the Clintons built up their 15 State Strategy, since the Dem establishment feels they owe them for building up the political machine in those states, at the expense of all the states Obama is winning. Clinton’s wins so far bear this out. I think this may have more to do with it than Team Clinton’s negativity.
Thanks for the reply. Am not saying you are wrong, just wondering why the perception is that Mr. Obama wins over Mrs. Clinton.
Wyoming takes pride in calling itself the Equality state, having been first to allow women to vote, and being proud of its early women office-holders. Have been wondering what effect that history might have on voting in the Democratic primary there.
tbsa–
I’m not fighting you. But if you think that people are going to stand by and let Hillary be vicious as a grizzled veteran, I think you’re dreaming. It is not about me getting over anything. I’m not running. If I were I would have turned negative the second she went negative after Iowa. Obama is not the Easter Bunny in the Lion’s Den.
He’s going to start hitting her and hitting her hard. He’s not in this because he likes being away from his wife and his little girls.
Clinton is damaging the Democrats for the general. I’m hearing blacks right and left say they won’t vote in the general and in the South, they are essentially what’s left of the Democratic party in the predominant number categories.
This is not about what “I have to get over.” I’m just a gnat on a freight trian. I’m just trying to objectively point out that one candidate has gone very negative and the other is criticized as being a bunny by Rachel Maddow who is probably for him. And she’s right. He needs to get up and fight.
What I do is not going to have anything to do with the outcome except my vote and the little campaign help that I do if I get down there.
Your comments are prescient, and I appreciate the feedback. I was simply asking given the negative campaigning by Clinton what people think Obama can do to survive in a place where I value the opinions.
Thanks.
Oh, I think I get it alright.
How I act, myself, and what I expect from others, are definitely in different ballparks. Notice I do not say “want” from others. And I am not being judgemental.
My training: MS in Ethology. Humans are animals. I do think I can view behavior compassionately and/or realistically without letting value judgements creep in.
Speaking purely from observing voters’ behavior from afar and from very near, hearing them explain their gut feelings or observing them as they cluelessly react to same. Advertising/sales techniques. What “works” and what doesn’t. It’s been a life-long habit, this curiosity over the why and how, as well as what goes on, what drives people to do what they do.
IMO Karl Rove is indeed a master of manipulation along such lines (hopefully flawed by a fatal dose of arrogance that will eventually bring him to ruin, now that he has maliciously hurt so many others).
I honestly think, after what we’ve gone through over the last many years, and with the internet quite suddenly shining a near-blinding light into every corner of the political process, complete with instant analysis, fact-checking, deeper and faster analysis than ever before - I think the public reaction to all this, and their reaction to campaigning, is a moving target. Room for lots of dangerous errors (swiftboat campoo), but room for lots of rapid learning. “fool me once,…”
People are FED UP with being lied to and taken for granted. Negativity of the wrong sort could seriously hurt a campaign. However, tough, sensible, accurate, appropriate negative stuff is
just fine. probably mandatory to ensure victory for any candidate for high office today. [all just IMO]Any other blathering I might be tempted to indulge in can just be summed up by saying I’m glad people like you and the whole pack at the Lake are on task, plus a lotta like-minded souls out there on and beyond the toobz.
So, Obama has an opportunity to show what he is ‘made of’ as it were.
Should he match HRC’s negatively with style, class and humor, it ALL works to his (and our) benefit.
I don’t suspect he is ‘rattled’ or ‘upset’ overmuch by HRC’s behavior, although he may well have preferred that she stay with substantive issues and direct her worst invective in ‘other’ directions.
Over the coming days we shall have a far better ‘measure’ of both Obama and Clinton, for good or ill.
I don’t know what you mean by that and I’m not going to get into any fights or pissing contests. My question was 2 part and simple.
Hillary is negative. She’s painting Obama as a mindless wimp. Her surrogates are lying taking advantage of ignorance of most people as to how the Senate works, what a federal trial is, etc.
It’s all over TV or the blogs. People are asking the same questions besides me.
I’m not going to waste my time or yours in my assessment of Penn or Wolfson.. They are multimillionaires who are so ignorant of the Senate they don’t understand what committees Hillary is on and what committees Obma’s on. They hope that you and I are that dumb as well.
I wouldn’t have asked if I didn’t value your opinion so bashing me won’t help with the answers to these two questions.
And I assume you want a Democrat in the White House instead of what you have now.
If (and I don’t care who makes it happen) Super Delegates are awarded in a way the elecction doesn’t go, and if Michigan and Florida are awarded in a different way then the DNC originally ruled, then the general could be lost and many people who are the Dem party in the South who are black are saying they’ll stay home.
Nothing to do with Wolfson, nothing to do with Penn, nothing to do with Penn’s lucrative company, nothing to do with Maggie Williams.
Nothing to do with me.
Please try to focus on my questions–not me–I wouldn’t have asked if I didn’t value your opinion.
So instead of asking if I want a job with Mark Penn, why not answer my questions about whether Obama should go negative and the impact of Super Delegates going counter to the pledged delegate totals after the primary is over?
Thanks.
Or if you want to bash me that’s fine with me but I’m not running.
Thanks I appreciate your opinons. I look forward to more later.
I find your line of questioning irrelevant with no need of an answer from me.
I agree. He’s not rattled but as one person is saying on MSNBC right now–she’s not really veen vetted the way she can be vetted. No one has asked where her money came from or about the$31.5 million mining deal. I think Obama needs to start going there or he’s dead.
What is rattled or impacted are voters in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, Indiana and she’s going to beat him if he doesn’t get up off the matt and fight her. If he just holds his hands behind his back while she clases and punches him, he’s dead meat.
Every commercial she makes now could easily be used by Rovesque Republicans if he were the candidate. Further Democratic voters aren’t going to see him as tough enough for the general if he doesn’t show some toughness.
This is not how to be a father for your kids–this is about how to win an election when a vicscious grizzled woman is attacking you with as mean a demeanor as she knows how to use.
There’s nothing about Browning’s “sweetness and light” that’s in the strategy sessions with Hillary and Bill. Absolutely nothing.
betcha they’re more resistant to that guck u spray under the sink…
Hillary Roddamn Nixon couldn’t have said it better… my friend,
buh bye.
Pete, your argument doesn’t hold water. He is doing well. Just because Hillary says something do you think people aren’t smart enough to think for themselves? Why is Obama getting even one vote. I don’t want to fight with you either, but do I think hillary is worse than mccain fuck no. You should spend more energy worrying about what Mccain is going to do to Obama should he get the nod.
lol, *shrug*
Many of us in Pennsylvania are not ‘rattled’ just simply not looking forward to becoming an (un)Civil War ‘battleground’ for negativity and destructive posturing.
Whomever ‘wins’ will need the support of the ‘other’ as well as the continued involvement of the other’s ‘troops’.
Should this ’struggle’ turn people ‘off’ then, once again, ‘defeat will
have been…’ but you all know how that goes.
Incidentally, Pete, I appreciate your ‘in depth’ commentaries, and read them all; just as I read everyone else’s.
So, a hat-tip, and Thanx.
Obama badly needs to get his NAFTA line together after the fumble/setup
of his staffer playing senator with the canuks. There are three big
issues in play, healthcare which HRC is better on, war which BHO is
better on, the economy which he had but blew with the NAFTA flap. He
better get it together and quick, it is all she’s got.
In my opinion, you win this thread’s ‘Concise Description of Actual Reality’ award. (You show a consistent tendency in this regard - and it is appreeciated)
I do not know how to rationalize the Clintons on Iraq and Afganistan and her restriction on social programs to mostly study commissions, her refusal to disclose her tax returns until after the nomination and the fact that she will have the WJC problem. Remember her arogant posture that if you do not agree with her Iraq vote, go find another candidate.
You nailed it. And THAT is what happened in Ohio.
I didn’t say no one’s going to be holding their nose. Because if it comes down to Clinton vs. McCain, would you really rather have McCain? Because that’s basically your choice at that point. You can sit it out and not vote for a candidate you don’t like, but you can’t avoid responsibility if McCain wins and you could have prevented it.
I hope things work out the way they’re looking, and you get to vote for a candidate you like. But if not, please consider the advantages of a Democratic Congress not having to overcome vetoes, and not having Supreme Court appointments in the hands of a man who has declared he’ll appoint people like Alito and has a need to prove he’s a “true conservative.” And that’s just for starters. Your country needs you.
I’m watching “the advantages” of a Democratic Congress right now with FISA. I’m having trouble seeing where on a crucial vote or confirmation this Democratic Congress has provided anything different than what Bush has dictated. EPU”d but I’ll catch up with you.
Here’s the biggest news FDL, and you should be the one to report it.
We should all give thanks to Bill and Hillary Clinto-for bringing out these truths -AND THROWING THEM IN OUR FACES - and for poor silly Obama to be so naieve:
.