What’s the current total in the exit polls?

Not surprised either, Jane, Barack won Vermont. It’s a state that understands the mood of the nation.

I will vote Democratic next November.

It’s early, and Tom Brokaw is incorrectly correcting Chris Matthews already!

Never-Ending, is dead on, Jane! *g*

corikey

Great, a Brer Rabbit reference from Chris Matthews about Pennsylvania.

If things are indeed as close as those early polls suggest – Hillary gains next to nothing other than, possibly, bragging rights -

Over a third of Dem primary voters in Tex are R’s or I’s. Four times more R’s voting in Ohio Dem primary than in ‘04.

If I understood Chuck Todd correctly, his point was that a 10-5 margin in delegates for Obama would offset an excepted 5 delegate margin for Hillary in Ohio. Again, refocusing on the delegate math and not the nominal “wins” per se.

I smell popcorn and I don’t think there’s any in the house! Data! I want data!

OH exit poll shows 59% female voters in Dem primary (to 46% in Rep primary) and by age:

17 – 29 16%
30 – 44 28%
45 – 49 34%
60+ 23%

Dunno much about the counties but with that split Clinton could get up to an 8 – 10% win.

In the county numbers reported Obama is not getting a 2 – 1 margin more like 55% in half and 60% in half. Gonna check the numbers again, the ones noted were exit polls of course the counted vote total is very low.

Here ya go
*passing the popcorn bowl*

TV talking heads are so fickle/and superficial–now the theme is that “Operation Kitchen Sink/Stay as Negative as Possible” is stopping Obama’s momentum and 3/4 is very possible. If 3/4 are won, it’s not going to be by much of a margin and I doubt seriously that happens.

Pat Buchanan has never looked worse as far as predictions. I wish I could see Bill Clinton’s clip saying she has to win Texas and Ohio for the thousandth time so I could commit it to memory.

Updated numbers and it looks like he is winning by a good amount more in the first northern county to report. (VT)

It’s getting exciting. Texas and Ohio I mean. And now I’m receiving comments here in our home respective of how hungry I might be. And have I given any thought to supper? Well, of course I have. Now that the topic has been broached.

http://www.spoiltvictorianchil…..corn_2.jpg

I’m going to the kitchen. Perhaps my lady will have something to say. I know she’s reading this and watching Olbermann upstairs.

Wow, some funky numbers, the youth turnout may offset the older women votes, and the repug defectors may also enhance Obama…

I think 3/4 could happen. RI is a lock and you would have to guess at least TX or OH. That leaves likely only a few percent to go 3/4.

I am suprised at the TX OH numbers that seem flipped as I though Clinton would do better in OH than in TX. I know that Rush et al is pushing for R’s to cross the line and vote for Clinton but items like this have been discussed in the past and I do not know if that can be measured effectivly (due to lying).

3/4 is great for Clinton even if Obama ties or even takes more delgates since chalking up W’s is more important for Clinton right now than 1 or 2 delagates.

Ewwww Ken Blackwell on msnbc. The not-governor of Ohio tonight.

Oh, criminy. It’s Ken Blackwell on MSNBC…good lord, couldn’t they get Karl Rove, they had to get one of his go-to cronies instead?

I love popcorn. With lots of real butter.

L.

He’s on the phone screaming at Diebold.

MyDD just put up a relevant posting on those numbers, but their (too-early) prediction is +3% edge for Clinton in Ohio. And Sandusky County’s open till 9pm. Zen Master says: “We’ll see”

LOL egregious — I owe you a coke!

Oh, disclaimer I kind of hope Obama seals the deal and takes OH since I am actually sick of the primary now and have never really ranked either of them as a solid #1 (after Edwards dropped out) – though I give it to Obama for running a far superior campagin (thus far).

Which is not to say Matthews is not in need of correction.

(This may have already been posted earlier. I apologize if that is the case.)

Bomb threat & ballot problems in Ohio today:

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/….._0304.html

Everything is right on schedule in Ohio. LOL

As long as it’s real butter, Ma Cheri…! ;-)

Data! I want data!

Ditto on the data – the alternative is listening to blathering from Timmeh et al.

ok, too pissed to write now – fucking Ken Blackwell up on MSNBC being presented as something other than a mere unindicted criminal…

Awww how cute. Kenny Blackwell wanted to talk about corruption on the Democratic side. What an asshole.

Heh, I bet a lot of Republicans are sad that Blackwell isn’t overseeing the vote counting in Ohio.

Way to go Ohio voters, to kick his sorry butt to the curb!

I don’t care for Ron Christie either. I support Obama.

L.

Heh, that goes without saying…! ;-)

SCOTUS and Veto!

Big Biz has pretty much sealed the deal with the SCOUTS, but veto is going to be key to head toward the light….at the end of the tunnel.

Here you go.

at least Tweety had the decency to laugh in his face and run him off-camera…

here ya go

*chomp – scroll – chomp*

The figures I’ve seen as to crossovers are Indis and Rethugs voting heavily for Obama.

I’ll give you Chuck Todd’s numbers:
Obama 1194 Clinton 1037 Delegates

Obama 208 Clinton 254 SDs (But this figure is now old and several have switched in the last 48 hours)

Clinton winning Ohio and Texas by 52-48 gives her 5-6 delegates and Obama wins Vermont landslied and she gets 2-5 delegates.

Even if she wins Texas and Ohio 52-48 she has to win the remaining 12 states by a 70% margin.

*groan* 8-P

lol. “What we have here is a failure to – communicate”…

Hello CT.

L.

*G*

We aim to please.

Raven:

If you’ve migrated here–do you use Blackboard software to develop you online courses? I’m sitting here with a new friend at the airport, waiting for the same flight to Minneapolis–he’s in the same business you’re in…sohe told me ask you what software you’re using…

count, %, delegates

Obama 2,429 59% 8
Clinton 1,619 39% 4
6% reporting VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…../state/#VT

What, I think people are saying OH closed till 9pm due to an open precinct? Oh, guess not maybe:

Clinton 2,029 56% 0
Obama 1,526 42% 0
0% reporting OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…../state/#OH

With 0% reporting in Ohio, CNN has it Hillary 56% Obama 42%.

Thanks for the info. Glad they make an effort to track cross-over as its an intersting phenom.

It always cracks me up that D or R’s might vote for someone they hate who then becomes the PREZ!

One part of Ohio is staying open longer, due to weather. Other parts closed on time, and so numbers from there will start coming in.

And why isn’t Ken Blackwell in jail?

We just got hit with the nasty weather from Ohio. Whew — it is pouring rain right now, and the temperature has dropped about 10 degrees in the last hour. Brrrr….

Two more counties may stay open late in OH – gonna be a late night. They ran out of ballots – great turnout once again~

Sandusky, OH open to 9pm I heard them say.

And why isn’t Ken Blackwell in jail?

Because he put it to a vote?

I think it would be fairer if they standardized things and had regional rotatings to take the compression and me first factor out of the Dem Primary. I’m all for individuality, but I honestly don’t see (and yes it’s to Obama’s benefit in Texas tonight) how voting in the midterms should have influenced how votes count for people coming out to vote for their primary candidate.

Because he’s on tv.

Yes, the counties that have seen God speak… Err… Flooded…! *g*

The growing turnout numbers in state after state is one positive to the length of this primary season.

The trick, of course, will be for the nominee to get all those folks back to the polls in November — especially those who voted for the other candidate.

Because he’s on tv.

—-

Yeah but if its MSNBC that is all prison shows other than KO right?

but why is he on tv?

I voted with a paper ballot in Ken’s ‘honor’ today. ;)

Republican voters thus far much older in exit polls.

Hopefully, you’re settled in with the ohana, with a bowl of popcorn…! *g*

Riddle me this, Batman: Why would the superdelegates want to vote for a guy who thinks it’s a swell idea to put Republicans in the cabinet?

Disclosure: I voted for Obama in my primary, but I regret it more each day.

Noron sez Hillary winning 60% of white men in Ohio.

It’s nice to be part of an important voting bloc, for once….

Extension in Cuyahoga County granted as well, I heard KO say. That’s Cleveland.

LOL I was happy about that too.

I personally don’t necessarily have a problem with that (i.e. Lugar) but some others i would have an issue with

VT: 10% reporting, and ABC calls it for Obama (59% to 39%; 3 delegates to 2).

OT (way off topic as we are talking elections here):

Integrity

Journalist Quits After Station Pulls Republican Vote Buying Story
http://www.crooksandliars.com/…..ing-story/

http://digg.com/politics/Never…..y_Thread_1

Dugg somebody has to do it!!

Do you consider Chuck Hagel to be a republican or a neocon?

i’m sitting quietly watching returns coming in slowly….. so far – much ado about nothing…… it wont get interesting til after 9pm CST

Finally, the beginning of the end of the Clintons. Finally a legitimate Democratic Presidential Candidate.

Obama 5,225 58%
8 delegates
Clinton 3,570 40%
4 delegates
12% reporting VT

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…../state/#VT

OH – no update

We are becoming the United States of Prison. For a while I thought it was the United States of Baby Daddy, but now I know that we can get the 1/100 figure down to 1/5 people in prison and Reyes’ caving on FISA is an excellent start.

But, Rev, if they’re this fired up to vote now, why would it not carry over to the general…? 8-)

Which State?

Both.

Finally, the beginning of the end of the Clintons. Finally a legitimate Democratic Presidential Candidate.

—

Not so sure about that on either count. If Obama does not take OH or TX the story about 50 super delegates might be held up. Also not positive how to rate Prez candidates on if they are legit (do you mean to win, that is a strong candidate with a good shot at winning – or that he is clean)

Why would the superdelegates vote for a woman whose husband definitely DID, as a matter of policy, put Republicans in his Cabinet?

Which State?

—

VT

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…../state/#VT

Later update that at least one county in the north is a much wider margin. Checking again that is holding true – the northern counties are going much more 60% – 65% for Obama. I am sure the other numbers will change at least a bit as well.

My point about “Republicans in the cabinet” is that the superdelegates are by definition partisans. It seems it would be a huge turn-off to hear a candidate say he’d be looking to the other party for cabinet members.

And that doesn’t even get started on the subject of how important it is to demolish utterly the Republican Party as it’s constituted today.

If the fifty-superdelegates story is true (a BIG if) then watch for the Obama campaign to use it tomorrow to stomp on any mo Hillary carries out of tonight.

Some of the superdelegates are partisans like Pryor, Salazar, and Landrieu, though, who talk a great bipartisanship game.

Watch Hillary on Daily Show last night. She seconded the motion – putting Republicans in her Cabinet wouldn’t be a problem for her at all.

Hope you don’t get what we have here – ice storm. My father’s only sister passed away in Fort Wayne and he was unable to get up there today for the calling. Had to pull off the freeway mid-afternoon and get a hotel. I just hope that he can make it by tomorrow for the funeral – it’s only a 1 1/2 hour trip but he couldn’t make it.

My brother and sister and I, all in Indy (a two hour trip) all decided today to not risk it either. We’re gonna check the weather all night to see if we might be able to make it tomorrow morning.

My take on the “50 delegates” story is that there is a sizable group of superdelegates who have privately told the Obama campaign that IF (and it’s a big IF) he takes Ohio and Texas, they will come out and endorse him, as a way to pressure Hillary to call it quits.

That’s a much different situation than a candidate “holding back” fifty endorsements, in order to deploy them strategically.

If Obama had fifty superdelegates who were ready to endorse him regardless of what happens tonight, he would have dropped those names in a huge TV ad buy before the election, not after.

So true.

I think there is something wrong with me. The more this goes on, the sadder I feel. I want John Edwards.

For new arrivals that missed the Poo flinging thread; a good place to release some primary angst.

(((((jayt and family)))))

I think former Senator Bill Cohen of Maine would be great in a Democratic cabinet….again. ;-)

Call the pastor if things look iffy tomorrow. No pastor wants to have more funerals because family members were trying to make it to the first funeral.

Trust me on this one.

Chatter over at TPM Election Central has Obama taking TX, losing RI.

Texas
Obama, Barack 205,930 55% 9
Clinton, Hillary 163,624 44% 12
TOTAL VOTES 369,554

Howdy! I can see my polling place from here. Quite a few cars showing up for the caucus. I’ll head down there and check it out if it isn’t over before dinner is ready. This would be Travis County Precinct 163. Austin. Texas. Y’all.

Sacre Bleu — and I don’t usually speak French!

I thought Hillary had a firm lead in Texas ?

Terry McAuliffe is feeling Andrea Mitchell’s enthusiasm — no, wait….

Mr. Doodle and I gave him some love a couple of hours ago.

Mrs. Greenspan happily pissing in Terry McCaullif’s(sp?) punch…

Don’t know how anyone could call TX yet — polls in most of the state don’t close until 8 pm ET, and in El Paso and others areas at 9 pm ET. Plus there’s still a caucus that didn’t begin until around 8:15 ET that’s worth 1/3 of the vote total. And RI doesn’t close polls until 9 pm ET. Did they say where they are getting the prediction on that? Which exit polls they’ve heard that from or anything?

Your linky took me to a Feb. 25 post…???

I wouldn’t want ot feel ANYTHING of Andrea Mitchell’s!

Does anybody know why MSNBC is showing results for Texas, at the same time it is saying that polls won’t close in Texas for another 40 minutes?

And can anybody explain the Texas Democratic delegate selection process, which appears to involve both a primary and a caucus–how are the two related?

Hillary’s lead is in the primary half of the primary/caucus deal they’re running. Obama is expected to win the caucus half. The kicker is how these two will balance out.

“Vote often and early for [somebody] Curley.”

This seems to confirm what I’ve been hearing about the early voters trending Obama in TX – am I right to assume these initial numbers probably reflect those pre-Tuesday sums?

Ewwwwwwh

For new arrivals that missed the Poo flinging thread; a good place to release some primary angst.

However, no pooh poohing here, please.

Jane — just want to drop in to say you congratulations on FDL’s Rapid Response Team’s 14,000 points of pressure!
Way to go, and thanks — an important pressure point to make.
Peace.

The Rhode Island results are sort of a gobsmack on the pollsters yet again if they hold up.

Here are the only polls done in RI…since it was such a tiny (”Vote like Massachusetts) type state.

Brown U.2/27-3/2 N=402 Likely Voters Clinton 42% Obama 37% Undecided 22%
Fleming&Assoc. 2/24-27 N=401 LV Clinton 49% Obama 40% Undecided 11%
Rasmussen 2/23 N=646 LV Clinton 53% Obama 38% Undecided 9%
ARG 2/20-21 N=600 Likely Voters Clinton 52% Obama 40% Undecided 7%

All except the last one showed Clinton killing Obama by between 9%-15%, only the final Brown University poll showed it closer and with most voters still undecided. It would be interesting if the broke for Obama.

I wouldn’t want to feel ANYTHING of Andrea Mitchell’s!

How about her checkbook?

ahh, thank you. Texas confuses me — in spite of the number of explanations so carefully given here.

Gotta love that Tejas two-step…! *g*

I looked here, but I’m still not sure. That’s why I want to go over there after dinner, find out what it’s all about.

That’s why I characterized it as ‘chatter’, Christy. I go look for something more solid.

noonan @ 96: where are you getting those figures from?

Here’s CNN’s overview column about today’s voting. Scroll down to the Texas section, and there’s a link to a video explanation.

Good luck!

so sorry

I think Landreiu and Salazer were members of JoeMamas New Democratic Coalition which Hillary once belonged to as well. Obama has refused to join either the DCC or the DLC.

Only if I get to keep it.

How you bean, pinto?

How about The How of Pooh?

Cottleston, Cottleston, Cottleston Pie,
A fly can’t bird, a bird can fly.
Ask me a riddle and I reply:
“Cottleston, Cottleston, Cottleston Pie.”

New thread… you know how to get there.

way sick – much better now though, thanks.

and youse?

Chris Matthews is such a CHODE! But Chuck Todd and Keith RULE! Just sayin

That’s a huge story, thanks!

Yahoo : In the Democratic race, Obama took an early lead in Texas based almost entirely on votes cast before primary day.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs….._lead.html

Nice!

I thought Hillary had a firm lead in Texas ?

She did, in the popular vote, once.

But that lead collapsed in the last few days and in almost all polls Obama was leading by a few % points.

But the game in Texas is all about delegates. One can win the majority at the polls and still lose big time in the delegate counts.

How were delegates assigned?

Here it gets confusing. TX doesn’t simply take the vote and divide it up proportionately between the candidates. Nope, WAYYYYYYYY TO EASSSYYY!

First off delegates are assigned by districts. Not just any districts but by STATE Legislative districts. Next the delegates apportioned to these districts are not the actual delegates to the nominating convention…they will vote on those at a small mini-conference according to the votes within those districts.

Still following I hope. Now how many of these “nominating delegates” does each district get? Well, that depends on how many people opted to vote in the last two elections for Democrats for governor and legislature. That is, if a Democratic voter, “jumped ship” to a Republican they don’t count. That matters since in San Antonio a popular Hispanic Republican consistently draws off registered Democrats. San Antonio gets fewer delegates as a consequence. But Houston, where African Americans came out en masse to support a popular legislative Rep. gets a whole mess of delegates. Austin, too. Dallas-Ft. Worth districts…ditto.

So that’s the delegates. So how are those delegates “won” in the districts? This is how Texas makes it even MORE whacky! Texas distributes 2/3rds of the delegates in a cross-over, anyone can vote, election. And people can vote anytime over a period of TWO WEEKS. And another 1/3rd are issued in caucuses that are going on NOW! And even weirder…you can vote TWICE! Yep! You vote in the regular ballot election…and you can vote again in the caucus. If you voted for Clinton two weeks ago…you can erase that vote (or at least part of it) tonight!