ShoeTube and the Daily Shoe

I’d like to add to the previous comments about how bad ARG is. Scroll down to the bottom of their page that you link to, and you’ll see the actual wording of the questions, and the order in which they ask them. Notice that they have a whole battery of questions about the economy first, and then, right at the end of the survey they ask about Bush’s job approval.

This is the exact opposite of what a good public opinion poll does. You ask about the core “dependent variable” first (Bush approval) and THEN you ask about the independent variables (views of the economy).

When it’s done right, with the approval question first, you find out what people’s views are of Bush. When it’s done the way ARG does it, with approval last, you find out what people think about Bush after they’ve just been asked a whole bunch of questions about the economy.

So, OK, from pollsters that actually have some standards and know what the hell they’re doing (i.e., pretty much everyone other than ARG) we know that Bush’ actual job approval is in the low 30% range. From ARG we know that if we get people thinking about the economy, it goes even lower.

That’s actually useful information, from a message-testing perspective. Democrats need to keep talking about the economy.

Cheers!

– Joel

mmm, perhaps something in papier mache?

I thought I would mention to you that Kirk Watson is a good guy and definitly NOT STUPID despite your opinions to the contrary, as expressed in a prior post. I’ve known him many years and will defend him any day.

I have no doubt that he’s a good guy, but he was clearly caught flat-footed. My comment was meant more as a dig at Texas politicians than at Watson.