Every vote should count. Except if you live in Florida or Michigan, because they broke the rules. So did Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but that’s different. And everyone who never really knew that superdelegates existed, or what they did, is now firmly on the fainting couch.
I actually don’t think any of it is going to matter, I honestly don’t see how Obama’s momentum doesn’t carry him to a decisive victory in the next few weeks. And under those circumstances, despite what anyone is saying, I just don’t see the superdelegates banding together to go against the popular vote. But I’ve been notoriously bad at the prognostication game during this primary season (as has almost everyone) so don’t go by me.
But Tad Devine seems to agree, as he says in a NYT Op-Ed recounting his participation in Mondale’s 1984 race:
The superdelegates did the work they were created to do: they provided the margin of victory to the candidate who had won the most support from primary and caucus voters.
I can say that the people doing the most hyperventilating understand the process the least, so time spent reading up on exactly what is going on would probably be well invested. So grab your favorite pie and start spinning for your candidate o’choice:
. Chris Bowers launches the Superdelegate Transparency Project. Everyone concerned about hijacking — go help him out. (Chris is someone who thinks Florida should count "as is," though, so if you’re on your way over it’s my understanding he prefers lemon meringue to custard cream).
. Dean campaign veteran Jerome Armstrong says "50 means 50," and explains that Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, and South Carolina should have lost their super delegates and had their pledged delegates reduced by half under Rule 20.C.1.a since they all violated Rule 11.A. Andrewalker08 provides more background.
. Julian Bond wrote a letter to Howard Dean asking him to find a way to enfranchise the voters of Florida and Michigan, as did Mary Frances Berry and Roger Wilkins. They’re not advocating any particular way of doing this, but want to avoid a floor fight at the convention. (I’ve argued that the candidates should, for their own good going forward, come to an agreement as to how to count Florida and Michigan voters and then abide by it.)
. Obama has suggested that Florida and Michigan hold caucuses, but Nelson and Levin are opposing it:
"You can’t undo an election with a caucus, especially one where 1.75 million Florida Democrats voted," said Nelson, who filed an unsuccessful lawsuit last year seeking to overturn the national party’s decision to strip Florida of its delegates.
Levin had similar thoughts. "It would not be practical or fair to hold a caucus," Levin said. "You’ve got 600,000 people who voted. You can’t just throw out the votes of 600,000 people." Levin said the state will appeal to have its delegates restored by the party convention’s credentials committee this summer.
. Booman brings up an interesting possibility: Mathematically, Obama could win the number of pledged delegates while Clinton takes the popular vote. I don’t expect it will happen either, but it would be mildly amusing to watch people twist themselves into logic pretzels over that one.
(h/t Jay Ackroyd)
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Jane!
It’s deja vu all over again.
Good afternoon Jane.
Great Pie.
Well, no it isn’t. Thought I had the Uno. Beagles forever! )g*
Mmmmm, pie
DFA has a petition to the DNC
Let the Voters Decide
Uhm, excuse me, but if Ben Nelson is trying to claim that he is a Democrat, my response to him is simply STFU!
Thanks so much for this post Jane.
I hate the spin and meanness in our own party.
I cant help but be excited about the enthusiasm people have for Obama. Including Republicans.
Im sorry that “Hillary” is the first woman candidate, Id love to be able to support a woman but not one who will win at all costs.
I dont even like the term “Clinton Machine” and reading how people fear them.
G’day, Jane – FWIW, I think your prognostication is about right. The great orange satan linked to an RI poll this morning, and it showed Hillary up by 8, but 36-28 – which, by my math, leaves 36% undecided. If Obama takes RI, which I think is likely, given how he outperforms polls generally, it bodes well for him at least keeping Ohio & Texas close, if not, riding his momentum wave, taking them outright.
Of course, if Mark Penn keeps saying the stupid stuff, Hillary might get trounced in her so-called “firewalls.”
Jane:
I can still say Top of the morning to you, in the next five minutes… For me I have another hour…*g*
This strikes me as a call for rule changes at the end of the third quarter — a sure recipe for chaos and disaster. IMHO, their behavior is both irresponsible and childish.
I hope to hell Obama wins the delegate count and the popular vote, convincingly. At that point, Clinton should do the right thing. Should being the operative word.
I’m with snowbird…Nelson STFU.
Please enjoy this Watertiger Produced Art for Valentines Day.
(it was collaborative, but she’s the one with talent)
Biodun Hi – I left you a message downstairs.
Hi Mutant Poodle, I miss you.
Obama has the pie with his family after dinner.
BARACK
MY HOPE IS THAT WE WILL ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE HOPE THAT THIS PIE IS FRESH AND TASTY AND NO INGREDIENTS ARE PAST THEIR EXPIRATION DATES.
MICHELLE
Honey, you’re home. I mean, at least you don’t have to shout now.
We don’t have a one person one vote democracy.
We don’t have a constitution which is law of the land.
The executive has issued over 16,000 executive orders which have force of law and are all unconstitutional.
The CIA has a known budget of more than $10BB and it is secret and does whatever the executive wants and when it doesn’t the exec does what he wants anyway.
We an electoral college which gives too much power to small states.
Corporations are treated as persons.
Money = free speech. More money more free speech.
Most of our budget goes to debt and entitlements
The DOD has more money than it knows what to do with it, yet asks for more and more.
We have over thrown 60 governments.
We have 2.5MM people in prison, more per capita than any nation and more in absolute numbers than any nation.
My eyes! My eyes! the burn!
Woops… JimWhite, not snowbird. Sorry.
Superdelegates are not a borg.
ND has 7 Superdelegates. Three have already announced for Obama and supported him in the caucus campaign on Super-duper, or was it Superlicious, or Super-dooper, or…anyway. I’m fed up with the media fear-mongering Super Delegates to gin up their ratings.
No More Fear…
Typo alert. It is Bill Nelson. He is the senator from Florida. Ben Nelson is the senator from Nebraska.
Well, thanks. This is what happens when work increases and leisure time goes the other way…
Ding!
On topic: At some point, here I think, I read a list of the super delegates and who they supported. I just looked at Ma., and I recall that they were roughly half for Obama and half for Hillary, which is how the votes are currently nationally. But, I would be curious about the other states.
Wishful thinking, it looks like he just smacked his thumb.
Okay, for Bill Nelson, he at least both spoke for and voted for the ban on torture yesterday. He also continued his almost one-person campaign to hold contractors overseas responsible for failing to investigate rapes of their employees.
Of course, that has to be balanced with his caving on the FISA votes, so I choose to listen to about half of what he has to say. As a Florida resident, I keep reminding him of his duty to the Constitution, for all the good that did on FISA.
FWIW, Al Sharpton says DON’T seat Florida and Michigan
I’ve curled up in the fetal position. What do I do next?
Jane, I think you’ve just about got it right, but what do I know. Frankly, I think this whole superdelegate hyperventilation is just a hysterical fantasy created by the MSM, specially now that it looks like Obama has the supermomentum. I know we’ve been burned plenty in the past but I just don’t think this big food fight that some people are fearing and/or anticipating is going to happen. Maybe because I just don’t have the view of Hlllary Clinton as this unscrupulous bully that so many seem to have. If things go badly in March, I do believe she will drop out. And if things go great for her, then why should she?
While we’re on the subject of Nelsons, Ozzie Nelson’s excuse for always being home in their sitcom was that the show always took place on a Saturday.
I agree..Ben has the worst voting record of any Dem Senator..But I think Jane was probably thinking of Bill Nelson Fl-D..who is a much better Dem.
The thing that really bothers me about the superdelegate hysteria is how much it reminds me of terror hysteria. It’s manipulative and attempts to sway voters who, at this point, should be focusing on the question of who would be the best president.
That is one mean looking pie. And just before lunch. Must go raid the ice box.
Charles Nelson Rielly says seat everbody.
-G
That’s funny coming from Al. I hope Obama wins. For the express purpose that a lot of Indies and Republicans seem to not be able to help themselves and will vote Democratic this year. It’s not fair, but Hillary can’t do that. What happens when Obama kicks McCain’s ass by 8 or 10 points this Novemeber? What happens to the “Maverick” schtick then?
All this “superdelegate” stuff has left me rather confused, but not suprisingly so since it is the first time in my 35 years as a voter that I’ve ever been aware of it. I thank Jane and all the others in the blogosphere for the many helpful posts on it and how it works.
I sort of see the superdelegates as referees. As long as no play in the game gets challenged, the score is as stands. But because the rules and the math involved in selecting delegates requires but does not guarantee the minimum number of pledged delegates to select an undisputed popular nominee it may be the case that the referees must step in and make the call. If the system were perfect no referees would be required. But the system is not perfect because of the human error factor. I’ve refereed football at the high school level, and we had to know the rules in great depth and detail, because the coaches and players and fans DID NOT! We had to make the call when disputes arose; our call was final, and that’s just the way the game had to be played because it was not a perfect system.
So call the superdelegates “smoke-filled back-room dealers” if you want. Maybe they are. But it’s also possible that they are essential participants in American politics, just as referees are in sports.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s been great having people more involved and educated in the electoral process. This will bode well for our Republic in the future.
This whole mess is why many people CHOOSE not to become affiliated with a political party. I think it’s disgusting that the Dems now find themselves in the same boat that the Repugs usually occupy. The “Boat of Disenfranchisement”. At least the undeclared made the decision for themselves and didn’t donate any money to a party that won’t count their vote. Seems to me the people that run these political parties don’t have much foresight. Now they are running the risk of one faction staying home in November. I thought the Dems wanted to take back the White House. That’s what I want.
JimWhite at #8
February 14th, 2008 at 8:56 am
”Uhm, excuse me, but if Ben Nelson is trying to claim that he is a Democrat, my response to him is simply STFU!”
My sentiment exactly!
Bill isn’t that much better(thought didn’t Bill vote against the AUMF?).
Jane, your first paragraph could be read as meaning that the situation with Michigan and Florida is really no different from the “rules violations” by New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. If you didn’t intend that, fine, but if you did, it is a disingenuous comparison.
All candidates understood that the Florida and Michigan delegates would not be seated and thus not count when the primary and caususes began. Conversely, all candidates understood that the delegates of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina would be seated and thus would count. The Florida and Michigan decisions were a very big deal leading up to the primaries, and everyone on each of the campaigns left had a say.
The Clinton’s campaign strategy of using Superdelegates to cross the finish line even if Obama has more pledged delegates echoes far too loudly for my taste the kind of thing we have seen from the White House over the last seven years. It’s dangerous to the party, and too comfortably dismissive of the voice of voters. I don’t need more of that in the White House.
Thinking about Hillary and the female candidacy. There will be other women running within the next two Presidential elections. Whatever happens to her this round, she’s broken the barrier. People aren’t voting against her because she’s a woman (at least not in the primaries), but because they believe rightly or wrongly t5hat she represents something they don’t want right now. That something anti-populist politics. People want their government and their country back. She can’t give it to them. Probably no one can, but at least Obama makes them think it’s still possible.
Double ding! I’ve felt for a while now much of the BigMedia coverage has been designed to string this thing along as far as possible. If it was wrapped already for Obama, just think how much all the TV stations across the country would not be getting in ad revenue and ratings. All those millions being raised are going somewhere.
Excellent post, redolent of common-sense and principled moderation. How could the Dems possibly go into the fall elections having dissed the voters of Florida and Michigan?
ANFSCD (and now for something completely different): what is with the geek-speak, like “woot.” Reminds me of the guys who played Empire all day and night at Reed College in the late 60’s. Really really bright guys but stone time-wasters.
d r i f t g l a s s has secret footage of a super-delegate caucus.
I don’t agree. I think that people who spend real time maintaining the party deserve special consideration in determining that party’s candidate for the Presidency. Otherwise, it’s usually the money that determines it. Would you rather have K-street choose your candidate, or someone who actually participates actively in Democratic politics.
It’s a mixed bag. Parties can become closed clubs and act like them, as in 1968. But the solution by ‘popular’ choice isn’t much better when there are no constraints on campaign spending. This year is special, because there is more deep participation by the public. It is working the way it should work, and because of this the primaries ought to count more. But in ordinary times, I’m not so sure. Plebiscitary democracy is not good democracy.
I agree, this is the problem with party politics. This is the reason that George Washington warned us about the dangers of political parties.
RantingRaver.com
But Ted, nobody has changed any rules about the Superdelegates. Any astute student of politics knew going in that they would be there voting. Bush not only changes rules in mid-stream, he changes them with his signing statements after the Congress has passed them and he has signed them into law. As for Michigan and Florida, do you really want to go into the fall elections having told millions of their voters that they voted for nothing in their primaries? Especially in Florida, Obama could have chosen to withdraw his name from the ballot, but did not do so. And he was the only candidate whose ads (yes they were national ones) ran in Florida. What would his position be if this strategy had garnered him a Florida win?
No. that was Bob Graham.
-G
Analysis on repercussions of the Mugniyah assassination from Asiatimes.
If the Obama wave continues, the superdelegates will fall in line.
If something unforseen happens and the Obama wave dramatically recedes, we will be glad the superdelegates exist.
At this point, I’m expecting hell to break loose. If one candidate happens to win it fair and square, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
If it turns out to be close in both pledged delegates and popular vote the Florida and Michigan results will likely play a decisive role.
Thanks oldgold. I think that says it all.
Whatever happened to the “one person, one vote concept”? Has this idea become outdated?
“Have you had enough?” Have you? Of course I know full well you have. I love that tune. Maybe put it back up one of these days? Vote for the Democratic nominee. Please.
AP – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday that the country’s economic outlook has deteriorated and signaled that the central bank is ready to keep on lowering a key interest rate — as needed — to shore things up.
Back to work for me.
I’m not sure what “fair and square” means, but I expect our cause will be best served if one wins it under the rules that were in place when the first primary vote was cast. Otherwise, one side or the other will have a basis for claiming a lack of “fairness.”
Having started off favoring, in order; Kucinich, Edwards, Dodd, I don’t have a favorite right now. I don’t thing Clinton is a monster nor to I think Obama is an inexperienced innocent. Super delegates, regular delegates, or a coin toss, you still end up with a candidate I can and will support. That anyone would sit the election out because their candidate didn’t win is something I can’t understand. They do understand that the alternative is John McCain, don’t they?
Yeah I saw that. Check your email!
Don’t know how you can possibly count MI and FL without re-voting somehow. Whenever Obama campaigns head-to-head with Clinton, he wins or dramatically narrows the gap.
If all the other states voted without having campaigning in those states, Hillary would probably have won by an average of 20%, based on name recognition and the BigMedia driven “inevitable” theme.
You can’t count those states without allowing candidates time to campaign in them if they so choose.
Maybe not. But Hillary is nothing if not competent, and that is so necessary for dealing with the aftermath of the neocons. Not so sure Obama can deal.
thank you! I love d r i f t g l a s s, yet often forget to stop by.
Seconded.
I was shocked to discover that Carrot Top was a super delegate.
-G
OT: What has happened to all of the diaries over at Kos?
By the way, just in time for election season and to be used in the GOP revival of the DFH perjorative.
Jane Fonda drops the c-bomb on the Today Show.
-G
There is an assumption that superdelegates will fall in line to the pledged delegates. But how does that square with superdelegates who have already announced which candidate they are supporting? Josh Marshall’s current lead story shows a CNN clip with former Pres. Clinton campaign mgr and superdelegate David Wilhelm who now supports Obama. John King put up a chart part way through showing that although Obama has more pledged delegates than Clinton, she has more superdelegates (234 to Obama’s 157), thus narrowing Obama’s delegate total. Wilhelm points out that so many superdelegates came out in support of Clinton when her nomination was presumed to be inevitable. So, it seems there is a real number problem in that many superdelegates have already spoken. Sen. Kennedy is a good example. He’s endorsed Obama but Mass. went for Clinton. Should Kennedy now follow the will of his constituents? I’d love to say the superdelegate issue is all media hype but I think there is a real conundrum here.
peels me
Bill Clinton speaking live on msnbc…
ah hahaha, thats funny.
the war on democracy. google video
http://video.google.com/videop…..9629840148
grates my nerves
As a Michigan resident and voter I never expected our primary to count. Senator Levin (one of my favorite politicians) has been just plain wrong on this issue. The Michigan politicians desperately wanted some national attention this year so they defied both the Democratic AND Republican national committees. Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina only moved up their contests to keep their place in the order. In the future, I expect the DNC and RNC to change the order of the state contests. If there is no penalty for defying the rules, New Hampshire and Iowa will have no incentive to go along (and they won’t). My own representatives screwed me, not the national party.
Watch out for the stick!
OT – Chimpy has a presser re FISA in 10 mins or so (1 et)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com…..64722.aspx
This is after a NJ superdelegate changed from Clinton to Obama. With the unfortunate passing of Tom Lantos, Hillary lost another superdelegate.
It’s pointless to be including superdelegates in delegate totals right now. Pledged delegates are all that matters at this point, since they will determine what happens with the supers. MSNBC seems to be one of the only BigMedia outlets not adding superdelegates to pledged delegates in their totals, and obviously Obama’s site as well since he’s down in supers, although gaining rapidly.
Again, the networks including supers in their totals are trying to keep the race going as long as possible to maximize ad revenue and ratings IMO.
before super-Tuesday Barbara Boxer pledged to support whichever candidate won the CA primary. it will be interesting to see her either stick to her guns (HRC) or waver to Obama if the tipping point is nearly reached.
Thanks for that. I’ve been wondering how people effected have been feeling about this. Are there a lot blaming Howard Dean, or the locals?
Seems like people should be pissed at the state Dem leaders, but I don’t know a lot of the backstory. Anyone with kids or who has ever been one should understand that when someone says there are consequences for doing a certain thing, and you do it anyway, you’ll have to live with that consequence. Seems rather simple.
Middle of the road record at predictions, but Obama is going to win.
Actualy heard a super delgete this morning give the reason for he choice as knowing the candidate and having worked for them….nice.
No, Jane. All the talk and discussion about superdelegates is a pre-emptive strike against the possibility that the party hacks like Reid, Pelosi, and increasingly, it looks like, Howard Dean, may try to steal this nomination if Obama comes into Denver with a healthy-but-not-yet-2025 votes lead.
With what we’ve seen, I think it’s a worthwhile “mission”.
:o)
Let’s be honest; if Obama can win this, there will be a hell of a power shift away from the bidness-as-usual beltway grifters, to the voters. What Obama will do with it, is not, of course, fully known, but it will be HIS choice, more than that of the people who’ve done so little to protect us from the savage arrogance and idiocy of bush and his minions.
I think Obama is simply more likely to implement real progressive changes than is Hillary, and if we give him a decisive victory in the nomination process, I think that he will understand that it didn’t come from the people who, figuratively or literally, stood and applauded george bush when he was proffering the country his last batch of bloody koolaid.
We’ll know more about that soon. :o)
I had alway lumped them together..but when I looked up their progressive Punch voting scores, Bill is 38 and Ben is 51. That surprised me. I am now willing to cut Bill a little more slack.
Hillary=competent, yes. But this campaign shows her to be irresponsible with money ($500,000 in parking fees) and in hiring and supervising staff(her head of staff, though loyal, purportedly was watching soaps most afternoons. Loyalty, as we have learned from Bush does not = excellence.
Shorter Boxer, to be brief…..
Obama wasn’t on the Michigan ballot,so I don’t see how they could award Hillary anything from that state.
LOL
This is the most nonsensical argument being advanced by the Clinton campaign. This so-called “disenfranchisement” argument, if so passionately held by the Clinton campaign, should have been raised well before now. They should have made that argument during the discussion within the party as to whether Michigan and Florida should be punished for their violations. Instead of crying about “disenfranchisement” at the time, they supported the decision of the committee. This is a pretextual argument that is too late to be deemed genuine.
Obama’s ads were, I believe, run on national satellite and cable systems that do not have the ability to filter out ads by market. If you run an add on CNN nationally, it goes everywhere. If you go on a market-by-market, carrier-by-carrier ad buy basis, it is more expensive, unwieldy, and frankly stupid when you can simply buy airtime, remnant or otherwise, on a national level.
Neither campaign really campaigned there. If you think a national ad buy that spilled over into Florida constitutes “campaigning” (anymore than Hillary’s “non-public” trip to Florida right before the vote counts as “campaigning”) then you have a very different definition of campaigning than do most.
But more to the point, and forgetting everything else, Obama’s campaign agreed that delegates in Florida would not count. As did Clinton’s. Now they want to change that position when it suits them.
That’s horseshit.
GregB@66, she sure did, didn’t she? :o) :o) :o)
Pre-show, did she warn Lauer and the “Today” staff:
“Matt, you DO know that I like farting in Church, don’t you?” :o)
Pie is good. I like pie.
Chimpy live re FISA – msnbc
OT– Conyers showdown on cspan1 wrt Miers and Bolton
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/….._0214.html
There is no joy in Pennville – mighty Clinton might be striking out.
1,756 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Bonkers and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“Again, the networks including supers in their totals, are trying to keep the race going as long as possible to maximize ad revenues…”
Citizen Bonkers, my friend you are right as the snow on the ground here…This race is OVER unless Mrs. Clinton is given orders by the fathers of the oligarchy ta destroy the Democratic Party and launches a scorched earth Kamikaze campaign to marginalize the women and Latinos that she and the bosses are takin’ fer granted.
We need ta move ta the next level here on the progressive front lines and start applyin’ pressure ta O’Lieberman ta come outta the closet and move to the left beginnin’ with the war and the Bush tax larceny…everything else falls into place and the Republifascist Party will be atomized all the way down the ballots. It’s the only way Barak gets the governin’ margins he will need to clean house in the Congressional leadership and move quickly in the first 100 days.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE FUCKIN’ AMMUNITION…IT’S LIKE POWER: USE IT OR LOSE IT!!
oh pleesae the liveblog kind sir
Wexler up now.
C-Span 1 is highly recommended right now.
shorter chimp: if i have to, i will delay my trip to africa to make sure the house passes fisa. i can assure you that al Q is plotting to hurt murkin people. (repeat last sentence 5 times)
my understanding is the super delegates represent progressive interest groups like women voters, american indian voters, teachers, things like that
they do not act as a block, they vote the candidate that will serve their interest group the best
I like this idea, and I don’t see why the delegates should have a problem with it, it insures they go forward with a progressive agenda and it protects the party from renegades, it also protects us from a catastrophy where too late we find out a candidate who has amassed enough delegates to win might become unelectable
Thank you Newton. Just switched to it.
anyone watching president pissypants right now?
that was inspiring
We need telecoms to cooperate with our illegal actions.
Oh! Q&A over now! Gotta take a Time Out with my cuddly.
More money issues…
Seems the landlord for an office in NH just got paid after going to the media (then sent the check to Obama), and an Iowa office is still owed $7,600. They both were pissed at how messy the rooms were left. Yes, this is minor stuff, but it does say a lot about the general attitude of a campaign, and does spread a lot locally through word-of-mouth, which if Clinton is the nom, will not help in Nov.
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/….._0214.html
Breaking: Chimpy sends Valentine to Congress today.
Sheila Jackson Lee waving the Constitution for all to see!
Awesome!
Chimpy’s such an ass for doing his presser at the same time the house is discussing contempt. So cynical, so effective.
Superdelegate support, unlike pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses, is non-binding. They can change who they support at any time.
digg it!
We come here with broken hearts…
Is that what she just said?
Sheila Jackson Lee Rocks!
Dugg Dude!
Babies.
Yes, she said that because she comes from Texas and has known Harriet Miers for a long time. I think she is truly sad that Miers has allowed herself to be used in this way.
As I understand it, the House will not vote on the contempt motion itself, but will vote on a rule that directly enacts “privelige motion” that issues contempt citations for Miers and Bolton.
The R’s are so mad they actually introduced a motion to adjourn during the Tom Lantos memorial service. They are voting on the second motion to adjourn of the day now.
wexler pretty much calls rice a liar
even when they know we know they lied, they want to lie about what they said though they know we have the video tape
they are brazen, they are fascists, they are relentless and they are criminals against this country
Hillary is imperfect–way too conservative for my taste–and I favor her only very marginally. BUT I guess I’m just immune to the whole Obama mania thing. He seems much more bland that what I’m reading and hearing.
Thanks!
awww, so sad, i heard from a friend that micro push polling would really works!
Interesting (well actually sad). But then, there are those reports that she used the DRC as basically a group to support her presidential bid.
1,756 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen TedAtkinson and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“Now they want to change that position when it suits them…That’s horseshit.”
Yes indeed, brother Ted, that’s what it is all right…listen to this man, Firepups, he’s puttin’ the last nail in the coffin of arguments for Mrs. Clinton’s continued presense in this campaign.
I’m convinced that Clinton is gunna pull a Lieberman on us (at the orders of her corporate bosses) and try and inoculate enough women and Latinos against Obama to split the party. From this moment on folks, it’s all about convincin’ Barak ta come outta the phone booth in front of a progressive movement that will smother the corporatists in the party and get enough progressives elected to govern effectively and get what needs ta be done in the first 100 dayz.
KEEP THE FAITH IT’S ALL ON THE LINE RIGHT NOW!!
Right on. Been able to see some of Barack’s recent speeches online and he really seems to be offering more specifics, and for the most part this bleeding heart Liberal is liking them. Also, the more I read about his upbringing, especially his mother, who was downright radical, I’m feeling comfortable that he’s quite a Liberal guy deep-down. We’ll have to see how much of that he’s willing to compromise…
Here’s his sister talking about their upbringing (very impressive woman…has a PhD. I believe):
http://blip.tv/file/332972
“You can’t just throw out the votes of 600,000 people.”
—-
What they can’t vote again? This time after a campaign, and with the other folks in FLA and MI that did not vote the first time (since the delegates would not count)?
Hell they threw out plenty of votes in FLA 2000.
What f*cking b*llsh*t is that? Who cares if he postpones his trip to Africa? I don’t think Africans are waiting for him with bated breath…
In 84 Mondale won on the first ballot with 56% of the delegate vote, 2191 votes against Hart with 30% at 1200 votes. A much different situation than is playing out with the Clintons claiming victory in Fl and MI and the supers and uads. The Clintons essentially are trying to claim for themselves flawed “elected” delegates from MI and FL and unelected supers and uads. Tad Devine’s analysis seems to ignore that Mondale actually “won” with a much larger plurality of elected delegates than Obama or the Clintons will ever garner at the upcoming convention. And the Clintons want the supers and uads to go against the anticipated Obama plurality. Mondale’s supers went with the Mondale plurality. Totally different than what the Clintons have planned for us. And a Totally Different scenario than what is presented by Devine per Mondale.
So Jane, some fact checking is in order here.
I think he is off to Kenya to teach them the population that they must except a stolen election quietly. (snark).
I have not joined any of the several “make the superdelegates follow democracy!” petitions that I’ve been sent by various organizations. I agree that they’re needless fearmongering, and their most likely effect is to increase the number of people who will feel screwed and stay home no matter how this turns out. I agree with Jane that the most likely outcome is that this will all be settled by April at the latest, so there’s no positive point to these efforts.
In any case, as has been extensively discussed before, given how undemocratic many of the methods for choosing delegates are, there’s no one measure of how to “democratically” determine which candidate they should support. We don’t expect elected officials to robotically vote for whatever opinion polls say their constituents support, they’re in that position to exercise judgment and leadership, and to me, this is no different. (That’s why arguments about whether “democratic” means that Kennedy should support Clinton are silly; just because he’s a senator doesn’t mean his purpose as a superdelegate is solely to reflect the whole state.)
don’t agree. I think that people who spend real time maintaining the party deserve special consideration in determining that party’s candidate for the Presidency.
—-
Isn’t the short hand for that “oligarchy”?
I would think that would be Bill Nelson, D-Florida, rather than Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
The problem with Michigan is that all other candidates did not add their names to the ballot there – Only Clinton existed.
Voters were more leniant to vote for the only candidate on the ballot (all the other candidates, afterall, figured Michigan voters don’t matter < — This may be an opinion of some voters).</p>
Was it the same with Florida? Were all candidates listed on the ballots, or just Clinton?
If Clinton was the only candidate ‘available’ to voters, then enfranchising is kinda whack to me.
Really – isn’t this a bit petty.
Yeah. What you said. That’s some BS he’s holding over congress’ head.
Foot stomping babies!
Bush’s foot stomping AND the House Republicans.
I trust Dr. Dean. Period. Rules are rules.
agreed. will the superdel dems will be forced(blackmailed) by the bliderberg group to select clinton? she is their anointed one. i hope johnny q steps up to plate and hits obama out of the ballpark. i saw him in milwaukee. one thing rang true…he could only be the vehicle, the real change would have come from us.
But Ted, nobody has changed any rules about the Superdelegates. Any astute student of politics knew going in that they would be there voting.
—-
Are most voters astute students of politics? Or even educated on issues for that matter? I would have to guess that 80 – 90% of primary voters have (or had) never heard of super delegates.
Thanks Redshift. But my underlying question is: Will they change their support?
It’s not “stealing” if the rules are followed. It can be called stealing if the rules are changed now that more than half of the pledged delegates have been chosen. Specifically, I recommend that:
– The FL and MI delegates not have a vote.
– The superdelegates continue to have a vote that they can cast at their discretion.
The first of those appears to work against Hillary’s interest. The second might work against Obama’s interest. But if we start changing rules now, the whole thing is sure to be settled by the courts, to the disadvantage of the eventual nominee.
and during Lantos memorial…jerk.
never mind the ones who can’t vote anymore, get it done!
Do you have a link for that?
i notice none of the reporters asked him to list the names of those African countries…
This one’s pretty good. There are many others…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/…..7609.story
Rep. Neil Abercrombie from Hawaii used to hang out with his mother and father and has very good things to say about her as well.
Some already have. The important question is, how many will change and in which direction? And that’s known to be unknowable. ;-)
oh I see the link. Duh. nevermind.
Good AFternoon. Lurking, Plotting and Planning, how may I help you?
Sorry, you reached the knitting department.
say sumpin funny
knit sumpin funny then
I found Hilzoy’s take on this quite helpful. I remain nervous about the whole bipartisanship thing, but Hilzoy makes a pretty good case that Obama does have a record of working to pick up votes across the aisle to get what he wants, not watering down his principles into bipartisan mush or capitulation.
I know how to “count” the Michigan and Florida voters.
Hold a one week campaign, and let them choose, with Clinton’s and Obama’s name on the ballot.
Clinton broke her promise not to let her name be on the Michigan ballot. And, she appeared in Florida before the vote there. Her supporters can call it what they want to, but it was a campaign visit, when she, just like the rest of the democratic candidates had promised not to do that.
That she should get those votes is bullshit to me.
And, in South Carolina, there was a FAIR contest. In which she got shellacked.
It would be no great hardship to hold some kind of REAL democratic primary in Florida, especially, since Hillary’s supporters are so VERY, VERY, concerned that their votes count. :o)
The thing that makes me feel so relaxed and un-nervous is the knowledge that Rahm Emanuel is a superdelegate.
Disenfranchised MI voter here. I don’t know it there’s a totally fair way to resolve the disenfranchisement of the MI & FL voters. My own preference would be another election, or cacuses.
Since the only names on the Primary ballot were: Clinton, Undecided, Kucinich and Gravel (I believe), and voters knew that the DNC had already decided that the Democratic voters votes wouldn’t influence the delegate count, many MI Democratic voters stayed home. Some voted in the Republican primary. I’m sure many would have voted differently or voted instead of staying home, if they knew their votes would be considered for the delegate count, and if their candidate’s name was on the ballot.
It’s my job.
See you upstairs. :)
Good one. Thanks for that.
What in the world could possibly be the purpose for GWB going to Africa?
I hear they have a lot of brush.
Happy Valentine’s Day! Give yourself a nice treat if that significant other doesn’t.
Good morning, Jane!
I hear panic. I see panic. Hillary and Obama and supports have busted their chops and no one is going to role-over. Neither can really count on voters while they have no choice but to count on voters. Maybe the superdelegates will save them. Panic.
It is necessary for me as a voter to witness to ensure as little dirty politics crepes in to dominate the outcome. I hear supporters panicing. It’s been a too long season and exhaustion is taking its toll.
Obama is sounding too self-assured about the will of the people. That can come back to slap him down. Support can turn on a dime. Just as quickly as that momentum arose it can crash. Ask Howard Dean. He went from riding high to buried.
Hillary is making choices out of panic. Maybe if we did this. Maybe if we did that. What will make voters vote for me? What can I say that will turn the light on and put me in the front, way ahead?
Panic is in the air!
If one candidate comes in with a clear lead, then absolutely they will change their support. They’re politicians and political activists, and while they’d love to get the benefits of having picked the winner early (which is part of why the declare their support), they also don’t want to piss off the voters, or worse, get no bennies because they participated in a process that turned off voters and made their candidate lose.
Sending George W. Bush to Africa is a bit like sending Laura to a thinking tank. Of course the thought does occure that the prez wants to visit the oil plantations.
What in the world could possibly be the purpose for him staying here? *g*
Florida voters could be enfranchised by recognizing the election, perhaps with some penalty (though I have no idea how an agreement could be reached). But that won’t work for Michigan, because Michigan voters were denied the opportunity to vote for Obama or for Edwards, and exit polls showed Clinton getting less than 50% had all candidates been on the ballot. So I don’t see how Michigan voters could really be enfranchised without giving them another vote. You could sort-of handle it by assigning Obama all the uncommitted delegates, since exit polls showed Edwards only getting 12%. But even that isn’t quite fair; perhaps some of those delegates should have gone to Edwards.
Perhaps the cleanest settlement is for Obama to continue winning big, and for the majority of superdelegates to endorse the winner. Then Florida and Michigan can be seated under any terms you like, and it just won’t matter.
If it’s closer than that, then we have a problem, and the resulting bitterness won’t be good for the Democrats.
WigWam, you are naive about political conventions. The party hacks, who usually represent the status quo for the party, have most of the power, and make most of the rules. They can change them, to enhance one candidates chances, or to make it tougher on a candidate.
All that’s going on here is that the people supporting Clinton see what’s coming, and it’s starting to look like the only chance she has is to MAYBE keep it close enough to deny Obama the full 2025 going into Denver, and then to use a hoped-for edge in superdelegates (which she has, currently) to snake the nomination.
Those of us against having her as our candidate just want the superdelegates to vote as their constituents voted, instead of against.
And, like I said, she lied about keeping herself off the ballot in Michigan, and I think the agreement was to do the same thing in Florida, and she went back on her word. The notion that she should be rewarded with those delegates is contrary to the very idea of democratic voting.
1,756 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Redshift and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“…Obama does have a record of working to pick up votes across the aisle to get what he wants, not watering down his principles into bipartisan mush or capitulation.”
I’ve heard this before and I’m convinced that the guy is brilliant and has all the chops and bonifides ta get the job done, I’m still not completely convinced and until we learn how much he’s in debt ta the Daley combine I’m jest goin’ out inta the field for ‘im with my hopes up but my brain intact.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, IF YA WON’T USE IT PASS IT TA SOMEONE WHO WILL…NOW IS NOT A TIME FOR A CEASEFIRE!!
GayView; spot on. Clinton would sell out the progressives in a heartbeat.
After all, on the war and related issues, she’s been doing it for most of the past five years.
Boner’s up on teh house floor. wonder if he’ll cry.
I suspect the plans and negotiations related to the new US Africa Command (AFRICOM) may be on the agenda.
The Michigan case is obviously clear-cut — one (major) name on the ballot is not “the will of the people.”
Florida is tougher, but there’s a strong argument that no campaigning benefits the candidate with higher name recognition. Florida is also tougher because they got screwed by a Republican legislature that was trying to depress turnout by Democrats.
But the major fact in both cases is that the Clinton campaign agreed to the rules until it was clearly to their benefit to call for them to be broken, and that pretty much discredits any argument they make on the matter.
my understanding is the super delegates represent progressive interest groups like women voters, american indian voters, teachers, things like that
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They represent DNC people & groups (here a sub-set will be progressive groups) as well as elected Democrats, and I am sure a sprinkle of others. I would not say they necessarily represent “progressive” things.
I like this idea, and I don’t see why the delegates should have a problem with it, it insures they go forward with a progressive agenda and it protects the party from renegades, it also protects us from a catastrophy where too late we find out a candidate who has amassed enough delegates to win might become unelectable
———–
Its protects from a catastrophy like democracy breaking out in the Democratic Party. Can’t progressive activists and causes campgain, run ads, register people, and vote already?
What it allows is that say Clinton and Obama are close – then potentially a deal with some Iowa delegates (in return for corn subsadies) and FLA delegates (in return for aero space subsadies), and throw in Carrot Top getting a convention speech could decide who is the nominee (over the votes of MILLIONS of people).
I think its kind of stupid. If you want to make people feel special give them a ticket to get in and no vote. Hell, let them work on the planks of the PLATFORM!
JoeBuck@156:
“…and the resulting bitterness won’t be good for democrats.”
And that is stating it VERY mildly.
Redshift@162:
Perzackly. :o)
Jeez. Sounds like we each need a designated non-voter to slap us back to our senses between now and the convention.
I think we’re pretty much in agreement. Plus his campaign has the advantage that it’s a lot of fun, and is willing to give the grassroots a lot of freedom to do stuff (which is my only complaint with the Edwards campaign.)
Goopers walking out of the House – cspan1
Boehner advocating the R’s take their toys and go home. He walked out!
C-Span 1: House Goopers walkout of chamber!
Quitters!
Look at all the figleaves walking out! They’re literally covering their nuts! Wow, historic!
This is a demonstration of how incalciltrant these goopers are!!! These people are the threat to our country. Right there!
I couldn’t see the tears. Were there tears?
I don’t get it. Just what rule did IA, NH and SC break? The rule that said only IA, NH, SC, and NV could conduct delegate selections before Feb 5? That’s the rule that FL and MI broke. FL and MI called the DNC’s bluff, and the DNC held firm to avoid encouraging other states to break that rule which may have resulted in IA and NH back in November. That’s all there is to it.
Holding fast on this will make sure that the Democratic party decides the rules for nominating its candidates, not the Republican legislature of FL.
Hey why are they leaving now? They haven’t been voted out yet.
Now that’s some good framing. Never thought of it that way before. Nice.
Afternoon pups!
I need to catch up on the comments but I did just catch the r’s walking out of the House chamber after throwing a tantrum.
Shredding party in Dick’s mansize safe. They’re crying about FISA, but I think the backbone on subpoenas is what really has them scared.
Funny, republicans outside crying in the cameras while Steny inside threatening to spank them all.
I smell calcium tablets. Tum tum tum tum. It’s the smell of victory.
maybe.
wow! what is happening with a backbone!?!?
They know Donna Edwards is coming and won’t be pleased if they don’t shape up.
“You are afraid, aren’t you? They’re afraid.“
Now voting on the rule that will issue the contempt citations.
Sheesh, the president tells the house to rubberstamp his stuff and get to work and the goopers walk out!!! WTH?
Pelosi speaking on cspan1
it’s a tell. crying before they get caught. one of the best recent crying scenes for me was george sr losing it when he realized george jr had sold the farm and exposed the family for what they are.
I go away for while(acouple of days) and the contempt citations come up and then the Rethugs chicken out. Interesting to say the least. Go House Dems!!!
Boy those rethugs are so smart. I’ll bet even the bluedogs vote for the contempt rule now after the little tantrum.
Pelosi: Bush’s fearmongering with this bill is not constructive.
Thanks for not burying this important issue. When the delegate count is as close as this, it is important to let all the democratic voters exercise their franchise. The fairest way to do this would be to re-do the primaries in MI and FL. If Obama has the mo, he has nothing to worry about. If Hillary gets back her mojo with OH and TX and PA, then MI & FL will be the deciding states. I would really like to see a Hillary/Obama ticket, and the only way this could happen is if Hillary has the delegate lead; but not enough to attain the winning number. If matters were reversed, I just don’t see an Obama/Hillary ticket happening.
Does Pelosi have more spine than Reid? I hope so.
Bush´s fearmongering is bad.
Go Pelosi!
I did not know that. Below is a description of the role of Florida’s Republican legislature. This seems like a case that demands a compromise solution.
( http://www.washingtonpost.com/…..id=topnews )
“Though the DNC’s action was well-telegraphed, it came after emotional pleas from state party leaders, who blamed the initial selection of the date on Republicans who control the legislature. Thurman said she and her staff spent “countless hours” trying to persuade the legislature to pick another date. Jon Ausman, a DNC member from Florida, begged his colleagues to make an exception for Florida because of those efforts.
‘We’re asking you for mercy, not judgment,’ Ausman said.
The rules committee was largely unmoved; only one member — Florida’s Allan Katz — voted against imposing the sanctions.”
Someone smarter than I, please explain.
They are now voting on the Contempt of Congress. But, the R Babies are outside.
Did they think it was going to pass and didn’t want to be any part of it?
???
If they vote against it, they will have violated their oath..if they vote for it, they violate Bush.
Hmmm.
The UN Security Council could vote to send UN troops to Korea…because the USSR delegation had walked out.
Maybe the Dems can vote on FISA right now – they did agree to water down House rules on the topic, just for today.
It’s a 15 minute vote and they will come back in (and I’ll bet many of them will vote) when recess is over. I just hope nobody steals Boehner’s lunch money or he’ll cry some more.
Sure looks like Pelosi has more spine than Reid!
Go Pelosi!
Uh oh…I smell caving tomorrow.
The Gooper argument against voting wasn’t against the contempt citations (although that is certainly what they are objecting to), but that the Majority was wasting valuable time on this frivilous vote while our kids are in danger from the terraists.
OMG talk about smelling salts. Nancy talking about her oath of office to protect the constitution.
She was prepared for the reporters´ questions. She is dropping a big rock on the Rethugs who happen to standing on a hard place.
count on it
Nancy making all our arguments: “If the President is going to veto then he knows he doesn’t really need it.”
Nancy, what’s on your table?
Pelosi: If Bush was so worried about protecting the country, he would have signed an extension.
She called his bluff.
Oh, brother.
I hear you.
But, just maybe they went outside to exchange their little valentine gift to each other.
This is some drama.
I’m feeling completely stupid about the Florida, Michigan issues, the superdelegate issues, even which of the two non-perfect but pretty darn good candidates I prefer. Many, with the exception of the vitriolic, arguments have some merit.
However, the idea I have seen expressed that somehow ONLY Clinton wants to win at “all costs” strikes me as unlikely, and maybe even a point in her favor. I assume Obama and his campaign(not a machine!)wants to win just as badly as Clinton does, he had better. Whichever candidate gets the nomination needs to be prepared to fight for every last vote.
Frankly, the entire concept of “super delegates” is insulting. The idea that in the modern age, party apparatchiks could potentially override the will of the majority of the party’s members simply flies in the face of representative democracy.
Yes yes – it was done this way in the days FDR and blah blah blah, but the easy access to information and the ability of the electorate to make informed decisions in real time didn’t exist. This is (putatively) why we have a convention – to hammer things out among the delegates, not to have the party elders decide what’s best.
Lanny Davis’ piece at HP is a joke. First off, he’s a Clinton partisan of the highest order, and has been for years. Secondly, the reason given for the creation of the SDs (low voter turnout in the primaries) doesn’t apply in this case. It first application was in the ‘84 convention, and we all know how THAT turned out.
Hillary has gone on record, stating her willingness to leave it up to the SD’s. Of course she would – most of them owe their political livelihoods to Bill. And spare me her crocodile tears about poor MI and FL voters; she had DICK to say about it until after the fact. Further, her name was the only one which appeared on the MI ballot – how is that supposed to be representative?
It troubles me that the Clintons are more than willing to trash the party to meet their own ends. We have an historic opportunity to sweep in November, righting the disaster of the past seven years, and she’s ready to split the party to achieve her goals. If it comes down to the SD’s, and they buck the popular vote of the party – in favor of either side – it will put us back thirty years.
HA!
It’s unfortunate I think this way now but it does seem warrented after this last year, but is Nancy just performing another elaborate Kabuki Dance? Hope not, but want to leave that open as a possibility so I don’t get too disappointed if that’s true.
I heard that as well and someone tried to explain it according to the DNC bylaws however this person left out the small part that Hew Hampshire and New Hampshire have specific state laws as to when they vote in relation to other primaries and caucuses. For Iowa the state law has been at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nomating process and for New Hampshire their stipulation is that they must be the first primary in the U.S. (does not include caucus)
As other states began to move their votes forward, so did these two states in order to keep within their state laws. In reading the delegate selection bylaws (i’m trying to chew through it) it states with regards to the Timing of the Delegate Selection Process. I went and snagged tis from mydd as my info is in pdf format and doesn’t allow copying and pasting.
This was the article used for the argument that NH, IA and SC broke the rules.
But there are rules in place for those states that are bound by their state laws. The article below is also taken from a poster over at mydd.
Wow, I was wrong, most of the Repugs did not come back in to vote. The contempt citations passed! Yowza!
That would be within the rules in place as of January first. I can see how it would be disappointing to Obama supporters, but I don’t see it as “unfair.”
Per the rules at the start, the FL and MI delegates selected via those primaries should not have a vote. I can see how that would be disappointing to Clinton supporters, but I don’t see it as “unfair.”
gah, that little worm from FL on cspan1 now :/
Gotta leave the party now. Enjoy your Valentines Day present from the repugs.
now some tears from boehner
and….the whining on the stairs begins
How dare the House want to craft their own bill and not rubberstamp the senate version. It’s shameful
Political stunt? Okay but Boehner now they are voting on african American Inventors. That is a stunt? why do you hate black inventors, republicans?
Hint: Your job is to protect the constitution
hurumpf
No kidding. Adam Putnam hands off to Boner who hands off to Blunt… Theatre.
blunt blowing lies into the wind.
ewwww, a weeping boehner.
Digg this!
can gramma nancy ask for a voice vote on Articles of Impeachment?
digg repug tears!
baffling with bullshit
Holding a primary cost Michigan taxpayers $10-$12 millions dollars.
http://www.theoaklandpress.com…..4165.shtml
I imagine Florida is much more. Each state, knowing they weren’t going to be counted went a head anyway and spent that kind of money. Perhaps if they would’ve not held the primaries, they would actually be able to convince the taxpayers now to spring for it if they were given a second chance. As is, I don’t see how either state could even afford to have a second primary.
right into hoekstra, what a joke!
oh the terra!
Almost sounds like football commentary.
Lucy? Pull that pigskin.
Yeah,…good job. Jerks.
Jesus…they want to shoot that satellite down…it has toxic gas that will likely be released….
Wunderbar…
I cannot believe the lying bastards. The surveillance started before 9/11. did it keep us safe? Does lawbreaking keep us safe? Why do repigs keep putting cronysim over the rule of law?
Keep our Cronies Safe!
boo effing hoo.
Yeah, did you hear the threat to americans if the house doesn’t pass the no crony left behind bill? I sure did and I didn’t like it one bit.
I cannot believe the sliming of the Congress that Miers and Gonzales and Bolton are allowed to get away with. Please vote these losers out.
The way I heard it was that sending the missiles after it was to partially destroy the bad stuff and keep it in rotation and not let it fall down on earth somewhere where another country could get its hands on Our Technology.
Just what I remember from this morning on MSNBC.
So what is supposed to happen in early March that they want to distract us from by creating terror over this spy satellite??? Anything coming up?
Iran?
The AeroSpace Corp. in El Segundo is tasked with keeping track of satellites and has excellent software for predicting where they’ll come down if left alone. It’ll be interesting to see what they do in this case.
You are right..they just said that.
Ha. I’m like a broken clock.
Twice a day. :)
Exactly. It is an issue of ballistics, science and math that we have had since long before the Apollo program, assuming that the satellite isn’t making any programmed adjustments to its trajectory. If I were designing a satellite, I would have put in a “cutoff” mechanism that would shut off all trajectory adjustments once it fell below a certain altitude, just to make its fall more predictable.
They will be lucky to be able to hit it. Star wars has not had one hit yet.
It mostly likely has radioactive material and the thing would not survive an entry into the earth’s atmosphere enough to steal technology. But it could give some people a bad hair day if it landed near enough.
Yet again the news media assist BushCo in establishing an ORWELLIAN POLICE STATE: http://www.salon.com/opinion/g…..index.html
The prying eyes of lawyers from “programs”…
OK tell me….
What IS a program?
That which you have not been read into.
Nobody said that democracy was going to be cheap. Considering how much money gets raised and wasted on TV ads by both candidates, it should be possible to raise the money for this do-over of 2 important states. Why do I sense that Obama and his supporters fear what FL and MI voters might do in a primary election? I am also intrigued by the media and blog silence over the results of the New Mexico primary. For the longest time the results were up in the air, but now it appears that Hillary did win this primary after all.
Christy has a new thread two flight up on the Hacktacular Howie’s love note to Chris Matthews this morning.
Thanks Jane and Katymine for the nice links and the helpful posts. My hunch is that the SDs will go with the one who wins the delegate count at primry’s end.
I wonder if Jane meant that Carl Levin and Bill Nelson are opposing Obama’s idea since Bill is the Nelson from Florida instead of Ben.
I wonder what Debbie Dingell things should be done now in Michigan, and I’m sure Marcy/and others will track this closely in the weeks to come.
However, what is more problematic (hyperventilating, twisted pretzle territory possibly) for me is to guess what will happen in Michigan and Florida.
I liked EW’s idea that the DNC should pay for a do-over, because those states are probably going to count/be seated and it should be done fairly so that all the voters get a maximal chance to vote.
I have to say, that my two pet peeves are 1) the beyond byzantine over the top complicated indivdual rules for scoring the caucuses, primaries, and 2 stage caucus primaries in each states–and the possibility that settling things could theoretically go down to the precinct level. I very firmly believe that instead of the crazy schedule and confusing multiple individual sets of rules for states, there should be a clear, regional standardized voting schedule that is not compressed with a “me first” rush, and rotate who goes first every four years the way the NCAA finals and Super Bowl get rotated.
Also what is not mentioned much anywhere is that in some states, the Super Delegate complement is not yet completed and there are situations where not all have been named yet and this can be changed until March 1–at least in one state I know about.
2) The Voting Machines–given the touch screens there is some reason to hyperventilate and pretzle twist over the fact that we have no paper trail in so many states. And I do remember that Kerry lost the last one to the monster in the White House relatively narrowly in Ohio last time around.
Rezko Update/Rezko Watch for the Rezko Fan Club Members
For all you Tony Rezko fans who delight in trying to “vet Obama” via Rezko, I have some updates for you.
1) Amy St. Eve has put off the opening of the trial/voire dire until Monday March 3. Temporaly related date: On Tuesday March 4, Senator Clinton must win Ohio and Texas by a 60% majority for her to possibly win the primary via delegates.
2) Rezko’s lawyer Duffy has apealed to the 7th Circuit for his release so that he can adequately prepare for trial. (I would not bet on his release, since the 7th Circuit rarely is inclined to make favorable decisions for prisoners. In one memorable case, while he was Chief Judge, the flamboyant author Richard Posner who was Chief before the current chief judge Frank Easterbrook wrote a 3 page published opinion (so it has precedent in the 7th Circuit) that said the BOP could move a young mother of 2 children 2500 miles away during her incarceration even though she would not visit her children during her years of incarceration. This is in keeping with Judge Posner’s Republican sense of the nuclear family. It should be noted that Posner frequently has dinner with his grandchildren at the Chicago Standard Club. So what’s good for the goose… well you know the rest.
Rezko attorneys plead for his release before trial
Tony Rezko fraud trial is delayed for 1 week
Judge Amy St. Eve jailed Rezko in surroundings that are not what you’ve probably seen before–solitary confinement in a South Loop Federal Jail after he was thrown into the beyond crappy Metropolitan Correctional Center–and it does make it next to impossible for an attorney to do the time consuming trial preparation with their client when they are in jail–period. Logistics are often horrible and time consuming, and time with the prisoner is limited.
Legal materials are at hazard when the client is in jail, and they are often intercepted or confiscated by the guards, particularly in the federal lockups where the BOP rules–in order to enjoy screwing with the prisoner and their attorney. BOP is an agency that is under the theoretical control of DOJ. DOJ is not inclined to help the accused.
Fitzgerald or Pat Fitz as he is often called, will be doing his trial preparation with a number of assistants and a full complement of office staff, Westlaw, Lexis, Office 2007, and numerous DOJ tools in relative comfort in the USA’s office in Chicago. He will not have the problem of accessing his client or access to legal materials or even begging for a pencil in his large office on the 5th Floor of 219 S. Dearborn Street.
There was no real primary in either of these states. Whatever Clinton thought she won, wasn’t a real primary. Obama didn’t organized on the ground in either of these states,nor did he campaign.
I don’t know Sue, why do you sense this? I’m an Obama supporter and we’d love to have a do-over where Obama can carry his irresistable momentum that raises money and garners votes with every passing day into Florida and Michigan.
I did see Clinton go to Florida after the fake primary was held clapping exactly like my 6th grade music teacher Mrs. Childress did when she was trying to teach us to keep 4-4 time when we sang or banged on the instruments.
I think she has a future at a clapping convention–or maybe at a square dance convention clapping and stomping her feet.
There were fund raisers, but there were no primary events and speeches. Primary events and speeches are those things now where Obama is packing in 18-25,000 people depending on the capacity of the hall and Clinton is packing in about 4000 people.
Let’s bring it on–let’s have the DNC who was part of what Marcy calls a clustersomepinsompin’ pay for the do-over since DNC contributed to it.
DNC has the responsibility to have this election conducted fairly. That’s why they’re called the DNC instead of being named Gillespie or the RNC.
The current thing that Hillary supporters have been saying is that the Superdelegates or Rules Committee distribution should be based on the percentages of voters nationally. Of course that utterly diminishes the States who had caucuses, since more people always turn out (or submit absentee ballots) in all day Primaries than in Caucuses.
That’s utterly unfair to all the States that had caucuses, and to all but the largest States…what Penn called the only “important States” (NY, California).
Once she gets THOSE, she can then allow the Florida and Michigan votes into the mix to give her the victory.
Tat’s her current strategy because it’s pretty clear that she will not win enough delegates in Texas to change the momentum significantly.
read me in pretty please.
”Clinton broke her promise not to let her name be on the Michigan ballot. And, she appeared in Florida before the vote there. Her supporters can call it what they want to, but it was a campaign visit, when she, just like the rest of the democratic candidates had promised not to do that.”
Congratulations, tanbark, you managed to get every fact wrong. Clinton never promised to take her name off the Michigan ballot. That was a decision Obama made on his own. Face it, he got bad advice and got outmaneuvered. Despite what Obama supporters like to think, the Clinton campaign does have some idea what they’re doing.
And Hillary didn’t make a campaign appearance in Florida. It was a fundraiser, which was specifically allowed under the agreement. That’s why the Clinton campaign didn’t complain when Obama attended fundraisers in Florida, even though he did break the rules by talking to the press afterwards. Although he claimed he was doing the press ”a favor,” and since we know only Hillary does things for political gain, I guess we have to believe him. You know, the same as when he broke the rules by running ads in Florida, because he had no choice but to do a national buy. Even though he somehow figured out a way to do a regional buy prior to Super Tuesday.
But I guess the ads were okay, because he got permission from the South Carolina Dems to run them. Even though Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire had never agreed to let South Carolina make those decisions. But I’m sure the fact that he had strong support in the South Carolina party had nothing to do with only consulting them. Probably the phones in the other states were busy when he tried to call. Poor Obama. He tries so hard to follow the rules, but fate keeps conspiring against him. He has the worst luck.
Well…here’s a deal. Both campaigns agree to restrain their Primary spending (equal amounts from here on out…and saving over 50% for a General Campaign) and use some of that $ in allowing a caucus in one State and an election in the other.
That way they don’t destroy each others Treasuries in these “re-do’s”, allow both sides to camapign, and voters who were told that “Candidate X” isn’t on the ballot, or that the election is a “beauty contest” to participate and have their vote counted.
Obama has won 8 states in a row. He has won more primaries than Clinton, and many more caucuses. He has anywhere from a 113 to 136 delegate lead depending on who’s count you trust. He has won 23 of 34 contests so far. Since Super Tues he has won at least 11 superdelegates to 2 for Hillary. He just recently started winning the female vote regularly and has even won the Hispanic vote in some states.
I don’t see Hillary backers talking about these things…Hmmm….
Perhaps in NM, whoever wins the percentage, it won’t really effect the delegate count, much like NV where Hillary won the percentage but Barack won the delegate count.
Hillary was way up in polls in practically every state less than two months ago before Iowa, where Hillary came in 3rd place. Barack has never finished 3rd. So when Obama campaigns in a state, he wins over people in large numbers, so if he started campaigning in MI and FL it’s likely the delegate difference would be minor. Regardless, TPM had vote totals up yesterday that showed even right now, if you add in the votes as is from MI and FL, Obama still leads in total votes cast.
You said they should be able to raise the money to pay for do-over primaries in these states. Where are people gonna get $10 million for MI and probably 10s of millions more for Florida? Even if there was a reasonable argument to re-do them, which there isn’t in my opinion, there’s no way to find the money to hold a primary.
Let’s just move on. McCandyCain’s out there shoring up his base and saving money, and even got Mittmo’s endorsement today. March 4th will make a lot of this clear.
LOL – That was funny, funny.
thanks
yay test
o/Ted, my brother. Sorting through the vitriol and obscenities in your response to my post on disenfranchisement of Dem voters in Fla and Mi, I can’t seem to find a response to the root question–what do you say to millions who chose to vote that day, and who had no say in when their primary would be held. What kind of strategy for victory in the fall is thumbing your nose at voters in two key states? BTW, check your facts on whether Hillary every agreed to disenfranchisement of these voters. I believe you will find that she agreed to not campaign in those states, period.
Hillary is never about fair. She’s about Hillary.
Congratulations Chris O. According to the pledge Clinton was a liar. This is a steady state for both Clintons however, who have been caught lying to the public for the last 20 years.
From Howard Wolfson after Clinton’s butt was stomped in South Carolina (in order to complete in Iowa and New Hampshire, all candidates had to pledge not to campaign in Florida):
“Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday. Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5.”
“Efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians”? He means the pledge they both made. When someone breaches a contract, they aren’t out manuevering the other side. They’re breaching the contract. If you want to talk manuevering, Clinton is getting out campaigned and losing. Obama is surging and Clinton is desparate with the wheels coming off her campaign.
I think she’s headed for the poster person for “National Clap Your Hands Day.”
There’s no particular brain power or innovation in breaking a contract.
The Democratic National Committee is pressuring Michigan and Florida to hold Democratic presidential caucuses so the delegates they’ve lost for holding January primaries could be seated at the national convention. Not Obama.
What I would say, Douglas is that they vent their frustration at the polls at the state representatives, party leaders, and the Senators and Representatives from Florida and Michigan who caused the problem by egotistically trying to butt up in line.
And in the future what I would say is that they support rotating regional primaries where several states vote in an orderly fasion so the problem isn’t repeated.
Clinton agreed that the delegates in Florida and Michigan wouldn’t be seated as well as not to campaign, but it’s nothing new for a Clinton to lie and change the facts when and where it suits them.
That’s what the meaning of is is, and blowjobs aren’t sex–they’re a seminar on the World bank.
Digby has a great post on this very subject in her blog; Democracy And Democrats.
Boy, the venom spewed and hatred from the Obama supporters is the change we are gonna get I expect. It reminds me of the evangelicals.
I’m not sure, Jane. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas are looking up for HRC now. And Obama’s “momentum” since Super Tuesday has come from superior organizing in undemocratic, small caucus contests, and blacks voting their skin color in the Potomac Primaries. Obama’s “momentum” now way overstates his broader appeal.
In any event, a McCain gerontocracy will feature a Democratic Congress with bigger majorities, so the disaster would be mitigated.