Every vote should count. Except if you live in Florida or Michigan, because they broke the rules. So did Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but that's different. And everyone who never really knew that superdelegates existed, or what they did, is now firmly on the fainting couch.
I actually don't think any of it is going to matter, I honestly don't see how Obama's momentum doesn't carry him to a decisive victory in the next few weeks. And under those circumstances, despite what anyone is saying, I just don't see the superdelegates banding together to go against the popular vote. But I've been notoriously bad at the prognostication game during this primary season (as has almost everyone) so don't go by me.
But Tad Devine seems to agree, as he says in a NYT Op-Ed recounting his participation in Mondale's 1984 race:
The superdelegates did the work they were created to do: they provided the margin of victory to the candidate who had won the most support from primary and caucus voters.
I can say that the people doing the most hyperventilating understand the process the least, so time spent reading up on exactly what is going on would probably be well invested. So grab your favorite pie and start spinning for your candidate o'choice:
. Chris Bowers launches the Superdelegate Transparency Project. Everyone concerned about hijacking -- go help him out. (Chris is someone who thinks Florida should count "as is," though, so if you're on your way over it's my understanding he prefers lemon meringue to custard cream).
. Dean campaign veteran Jerome Armstrong says "50 means 50," and explains that Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, and South Carolina should have lost their super delegates and had their pledged delegates reduced by half under Rule 20.C.1.a since they all violated Rule 11.A. Andrewalker08 provides more background.
. Julian Bond wrote a letter to Howard Dean asking him to find a way to enfranchise the voters of Florida and Michigan, as did Mary Frances Berry and Roger Wilkins. They're not advocating any particular way of doing this, but want to avoid a floor fight at the convention. (I've argued that the candidates should, for their own good going forward, come to an agreement as to how to count Florida and Michigan voters and then abide by it.)
. Obama has suggested that Florida and Michigan hold caucuses, but Nelson and Levin are opposing it:
"You can't undo an election with a caucus, especially one where 1.75 million Florida Democrats voted," said Nelson, who filed an unsuccessful lawsuit last year seeking to overturn the national party's decision to strip Florida of its delegates.
Levin had similar thoughts. "It would not be practical or fair to hold a caucus," Levin said. "You've got 600,000 people who voted. You can't just throw out the votes of 600,000 people." Levin said the state will appeal to have its delegates restored by the party convention's credentials committee this summer.
. Booman brings up an interesting possibility: Mathematically, Obama could win the number of pledged delegates while Clinton takes the popular vote. I don't expect it will happen either, but it would be mildly amusing to watch people twist themselves into logic pretzels over that one.
(h/t Jay Ackroyd)
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Jane!
It’s deja vu all over again.
Good afternoon Jane.
Great Pie.
Well, no it isn’t. Thought I had the Uno. Beagles forever! )g*
Mmmmm, pie
DFA has a petition to the DNC
Let the Voters Decide
Uhm, excuse me, but if Ben Nelson is trying to claim that he is a Democrat, my response to him is simply STFU!
Thanks so much for this post Jane.
I hate the spin and meanness in our own party.
I cant help but be excited about the enthusiasm people have for Obama. Including Republicans.
Im sorry that “Hillary” is the first woman candidate, Id love to be able to support a woman but not one who will win at all costs.
I dont even like the term “Clinton Machine” and reading how people fear them.
G’day, Jane - FWIW, I think your prognostication is about right. The great orange satan linked to an RI poll this morning, and it showed Hillary up by 8, but 36-28 - which, by my math, leaves 36% undecided. If Obama takes RI, which I think is likely, given how he outperforms polls generally, it bodes well for him at least keeping Ohio & Texas close, if not, riding his momentum wave, taking them outright.
Of course, if Mark Penn keeps saying the stupid stuff, Hillary might get trounced in her so-called “firewalls.”
Jane:
I can still say Top of the morning to you, in the next five minutes… For me I have another hour…*g*
This strikes me as a call for rule changes at the end of the third quarter — a sure recipe for chaos and disaster. IMHO, their behavior is both irresponsible and childish.
I hope to hell Obama wins the delegate count and the popular vote, convincingly. At that point, Clinton should do the right thing. Should being the operative word.
I’m with snowbird…Nelson STFU.
Please enjoy this Watertiger Produced Art for Valentines Day.
(it was collaborative, but she’s the one with talent)
Biodun Hi - I left you a message downstairs.
Hi Mutant Poodle, I miss you.
Obama has the pie with his family after dinner.
BARACK
MY HOPE IS THAT WE WILL ALL COME TOGETHER IN THE HOPE THAT THIS PIE IS FRESH AND TASTY AND NO INGREDIENTS ARE PAST THEIR EXPIRATION DATES.
MICHELLE
Honey, you’re home. I mean, at least you don’t have to shout now.
We don’t have a one person one vote democracy.
We don’t have a constitution which is law of the land.
The executive has issued over 16,000 executive orders which have force of law and are all unconstitutional.
The CIA has a known budget of more than $10BB and it is secret and does whatever the executive wants and when it doesn’t the exec does what he wants anyway.
We an electoral college which gives too much power to small states.
Corporations are treated as persons.
Money = free speech. More money more free speech.
Most of our budget goes to debt and entitlements
The DOD has more money than it knows what to do with it, yet asks for more and more.
We have over thrown 60 governments.
We have 2.5MM people in prison, more per capita than any nation and more in absolute numbers than any nation.
My eyes! My eyes! the burn!
Woops… JimWhite, not snowbird. Sorry.
Superdelegates are not a borg.
ND has 7 Superdelegates. Three have already announced for Obama and supported him in the caucus campaign on Super-duper, or was it Superlicious, or Super-dooper, or…anyway. I’m fed up with the media fear-mongering Super Delegates to gin up their ratings.
No More Fear…
Typo alert. It is Bill Nelson. He is the senator from Florida. Ben Nelson is the senator from Nebraska.
Well, thanks. This is what happens when work increases and leisure time goes the other way…
Ding!
On topic: At some point, here I think, I read a list of the super delegates and who they supported. I just looked at Ma., and I recall that they were roughly half for Obama and half for Hillary, which is how the votes are currently nationally. But, I would be curious about the other states.
Wishful thinking, it looks like he just smacked his thumb.
Okay, for Bill Nelson, he at least both spoke for and voted for the ban on torture yesterday. He also continued his almost one-person campaign to hold contractors overseas responsible for failing to investigate rapes of their employees.
Of course, that has to be balanced with his caving on the FISA votes, so I choose to listen to about half of what he has to say. As a Florida resident, I keep reminding him of his duty to the Constitution, for all the good that did on FISA.
FWIW, Al Sharpton says DON’T seat Florida and Michigan
I’ve curled up in the fetal position. What do I do next?
Jane, I think you’ve just about got it right, but what do I know. Frankly, I think this whole superdelegate hyperventilation is just a hysterical fantasy created by the MSM, specially now that it looks like Obama has the supermomentum. I know we’ve been burned plenty in the past but I just don’t think this big food fight that some people are fearing and/or anticipating is going to happen. Maybe because I just don’t have the view of Hlllary Clinton as this unscrupulous bully that so many seem to have. If things go badly in March, I do believe she will drop out. And if things go great for her, then why should she?
While we’re on the subject of Nelsons, Ozzie Nelson’s excuse for always being home in their sitcom was that the show always took place on a Saturday.
I agree..Ben has the worst voting record of any Dem Senator..But I think Jane was probably thinking of Bill Nelson Fl-D..who is a much better Dem.
The thing that really bothers me about the superdelegate hysteria is how much it reminds me of terror hysteria. It’s manipulative and attempts to sway voters who, at this point, should be focusing on the question of who would be the best president.
That is one mean looking pie. And just before lunch. Must go raid the ice box.
Charles Nelson Rielly says seat everbody.
-G
That’s funny coming from Al. I hope Obama wins. For the express purpose that a lot of Indies and Republicans seem to not be able to help themselves and will vote Democratic this year. It’s not fair, but Hillary can’t do that. What happens when Obama kicks McCain’s ass by 8 or 10 points this Novemeber? What happens to the “Maverick” schtick then?
All this “superdelegate” stuff has left me rather confused, but not suprisingly so since it is the first time in my 35 years as a voter that I’ve ever been aware of it. I thank Jane and all the others in the blogosphere for the many helpful posts on it and how it works.
I sort of see the superdelegates as referees. As long as no play in the game gets challenged, the score is as stands. But because the rules and the math involved in selecting delegates requires but does not guarantee the minimum number of pledged delegates to select an undisputed popular nominee it may be the case that the referees must step in and make the call. If the system were perfect no referees would be required. But the system is not perfect because of the human error factor. I’ve refereed football at the high school level, and we had to know the rules in great depth and detail, because the coaches and players and fans DID NOT! We had to make the call when disputes arose; our call was final, and that’s just the way the game had to be played because it was not a perfect system.
So call the superdelegates “smoke-filled back-room dealers” if you want. Maybe they are. But it’s also possible that they are essential participants in American politics, just as referees are in sports.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s been great having people more involved and educated in the electoral process. This will bode well for our Republic in the future.
This whole mess is why many people CHOOSE not to become affiliated with a political party. I think it’s disgusting that the Dems now find themselves in the same boat that the Repugs usually occupy. The “Boat of Disenfranchisement”. At least the undeclared made the decision for themselves and didn’t donate any money to a party that won’t count their vote. Seems to me the people that run these political parties don’t have much foresight. Now they are running the risk of one faction staying home in November. I thought the Dems wanted to take back the White House. That’s what I want.
JimWhite at #8
February 14th, 2008 at 8:56 am
”Uhm, excuse me, but if Ben Nelson is trying to claim that he is a Democrat, my response to him is simply STFU!”
My sentiment exactly!
Bill isn’t that much better(thought didn’t Bill vote against the AUMF?).
Jane, your first paragraph could be read as meaning that the situation with Michigan and Florida is really no different from the “rules violations” by New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. If you didn’t intend that, fine, but if you did, it is a disingenuous comparison.
All candidates understood that the Florida and Michigan delegates would not be seated and thus not count when the primary and caususes began. Conversely, all candidates understood that the delegates of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina would be seated and thus would count. The Florida and Michigan decisions were a very big deal leading up to the primaries, and everyone on each of the campaigns left had a say.
The Clinton’s campaign strategy of using Superdelegates to cross the finish line even if Obama has more pledged delegates echoes far too loudly for my taste the kind of thing we have seen from the White House over the last seven years. It’s dangerous to the party, and too comfortably dismissive of the voice of voters. I don’t need more of that in the White House.
Thinking about Hillary and the female candidacy. There will be other women running within the next two Presidential elections. Whatever happens to her this round, she’s broken the barrier. People aren’t voting against her because she’s a woman (at least not in the primaries), but because they believe rightly or wrongly t5hat she represents something they don’t want right now. That something anti-populist politics. People want their government and their country back. She can’t give it to them. Probably no one can, but at least Obama makes them think it’s still possible.
Double ding! I’ve felt for a while now much of the BigMedia coverage has been designed to string this thing along as far as possible. If it was wrapped already for Obama, just think how much all the TV stations across the country would not be getting in ad revenue and ratings. All those millions being raised are going somewhere.
Excellent post, redolent of common-sense and principled moderation. How could the Dems possibly go into the fall elections having dissed the voters of Florida and Michigan?
ANFSCD (and now for something completely different): what is with the geek-speak, like “woot.” Reminds me of the guys who played Empire all day and night at Reed College in the late 60’s. Really really bright guys but stone time-wasters.
d r i f t g l a s s has secret footage of a super-delegate caucus.
I don’t agree. I think that people who spend real time maintaining the party deserve special consideration in determining that party’s candidate for the Presidency. Otherwise, it’s usually the money that determines it. Would you rather have K-street choose your candidate, or someone who actually participates actively in Democratic politics.
It’s a mixed bag. Parties can become closed clubs and act like them, as in 1968. But the solution by ‘popular’ choice isn’t much better when there are no constraints on campaign spending. This year is special, because there is more deep participation by the public. It is working the way it should work, and because of this the primaries ought to count more. But in ordinary times, I’m not so sure. Plebiscitary democracy is not good democracy.
I agree, this is the problem with party politics. This is the reason that George Washington warned us about the dangers of political parties.
RantingRaver.com
But Ted, nobody has changed any rules about the Superdelegates. Any astute student of politics knew going in that they would be there voting. Bush not only changes rules in mid-stream, he changes them with his signing statements after the Congress has passed them and he has signed them into law. As for Michigan and Florida, do you really want to go into the fall elections having told millions of their voters that they voted for nothing in their primaries? Especially in Florida, Obama could have chosen to withdraw his name from the ballot, but did not do so. And he was the only candidate whose ads (yes they were national ones) ran in Florida. What would his position be if this strategy had garnered him a Florida win?
No. that was Bob Graham.
-G
Analysis on repercussions of the Mugniyah assassination from Asiatimes.
If the Obama wave continues, the superdelegates will fall in line.
If something unforseen happens and the Obama wave dramatically recedes, we will be glad the superdelegates exist.
At this point, I’m expecting hell to break loose. If one candidate happens to win it fair and square, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
If it turns out to be close in both pledged delegates and popular vote the Florida and Michigan results will likely play a decisive role.
Thanks oldgold. I think that says it all.
Whatever happened to the “one person, one vote concept”? Has this idea become outdated?
“Have you had enough?” Have you? Of course I know full well you have. I love that tune. Maybe put it back up one of these days? Vote for the Democratic nominee. Please.
AP - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday that the country’s economic outlook has deteriorated and signaled that the central bank is ready to keep on lowering a key interest rate — as needed — to shore things up.
Back to work for me.
I’m not sure what “fair and square” means, but I expect our cause will be best served if one wins it under the rules that were in place when the first primary vote was cast. Otherwise, one side or the other will have a basis for claiming a lack of “fairness.”
Having started off favoring, in order; Kucinich, Edwards, Dodd, I don’t have a favorite right now. I don’t thing Clinton is a monster nor to I think Obama is an inexperienced innocent. Super delegates, regular delegates, or a coin toss, you still end up with a candidate I can and will support. That anyone would sit the election out because their candidate didn’t win is something I can’t understand. They do understand that the alternative is John McCain, don’t they?
Yeah I saw that. Check your email!
Don’t know how you can possibly count MI and FL without re-voting somehow. Whenever Obama campaigns head-to-head with Clinton, he wins or dramatically narrows the gap.
If all the other states voted without having campaigning in those states, Hillary would probably have won by an average of 20%, based on name recognition and the BigMedia driven “inevitable” theme.
You can’t count those states without allowing candidates time to campaign in them if they so choose.
Maybe not. But Hillary is nothing if not competent, and that is so necessary for dealing with the aftermath of the neocons. Not so sure Obama can deal.
thank you! I love d r i f t g l a s s, yet often forget to stop by.
Seconded.
I was shocked to discover that Carrot Top was a super delegate.
-G
OT: What has happened to all of the diaries over at Kos?
By the way, just in time for election season and to be used in the GOP revival of the DFH perjorative.
Jane Fonda drops the c-bomb on the Today Show.
-G
There is an assumption that superdelegates will fall in line to the pledged delegates. But how does that square with superdelegates who have already announced which candidate they are supporting? Josh Marshall’s current lead story shows a CNN clip with former Pres. Clinton campaign mgr and superdelegate David Wilhelm who now supports Obama. John King put up a chart part way through showing that although Obama has more pledged delegates than Clinton, she has more superdelegates (234 to Obama’s 157), thus narrowing Obama’s delegate total. Wilhelm points out that so many superdelegates came out in support of Clinton when her nomination was presumed to be inevitable. So, it seems there is a real number problem in that many superdelegates have already spoken. Sen. Kennedy is a good example. He’s endorsed Obama but Mass. went for Clinton. Should Kennedy now follow the will of his constituents? I’d love to say the superdelegate issue is all media hype but I think there is a real conundrum here.
peels me
Bill Clinton speaking live on msnbc…
ah hahaha, thats funny.
the war on democracy. google video
http://video.google.com/videop.....9629840148
grates my nerves
As a Michigan resident and voter I never expected our primary to count. Senator Levin (one of my favorite politicians) has been just plain wrong on this issue. The Michigan politicians desperately wanted some national attention this year so they defied both the Democratic AND Republican national committees. Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina only moved up their contests to keep their place in the order. In the future, I expect the DNC and RNC to change the order of the state contests. If there is no penalty for defying the rules, New Hampshire and Iowa will have no incentive to go along (and they won’t). My own representatives screwed me, not the national party.
Watch out for the stick!
OT - Chimpy has a presser re FISA in 10 mins or so (1 et)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....64722.aspx
This is after a NJ superdelegate changed from Clinton to Obama. With the unfortunate passing of Tom Lantos, Hillary lost another superdelegate.
It’s pointless to be including superdelegates in delegate totals right now. Pledged delegates are all that matters at this point, since they will determine what happens with the supers. MSNBC seems to be one of the only BigMedia outlets not adding superdelegates to pledged delegates in their totals, and obviously Obama’s site as well since he’s down in supers, although gaining rapidly.
Again, the networks including supers in their totals are trying to keep the race going as long as possible to maximize ad revenue and ratings IMO.
before super-Tuesday Barbara Boxer pledged to support whichever candidate won the CA primary. it will be interesting to see her either stick to her guns (HRC) or waver to Obama if the tipping point is nearly reached.
Thanks for that. I’ve been wondering how people effected have been feeling about this. Are there a lot blaming Howard Dean, or the locals?
Seems like people should be pissed at the state Dem leaders, but I don’t know a lot of the backstory. Anyone with kids or who has ever been one should understand that when someone says there are consequences for doing a certain thing, and you do it anyway, you’ll have to live with that consequence. Seems rather simple.
Middle of the road record at predictions, but Obama is going to win.
Actualy heard a super delgete this morning give the reason for he choice as knowing the candidate and having worked for them….nice.
No, Jane. All the talk and discussion about superdelegates is a pre-emptive strike against the possibility that the party hacks like Reid, Pelosi, and increasingly, it looks like, Howard Dean, may try to steal this nomination if Obama comes into Denver with a healthy-but-not-yet-2025 votes lead.
With what we’ve seen, I think it’s a worthwhile “mission”.
:o)
Let’s be honest; if Obama can win this, there will be a hell of a power shift away from the bidness-as-usual beltway grifters, to the voters. What Obama will do with it, is not, of course, fully known, but it will be HIS choice, more than that of the people who’ve done so little to protect us from the savage arrogance and idiocy of bush and his minions.
I think Obama is simply more likely to implement real progressive changes than is Hillary, and if we give him a decisive victory in the nomination process, I think that he will understand that it didn’t come from the people who, figuratively or literally, stood and applauded george bush when he was proffering the country his last batch of bloody koolaid.
We’ll know more about that soon. :o)
I had alway lumped them together..but when I looked up their progressive Punch voting scores, Bill is 38 and Ben is 51. That surprised me. I am now willing to cut Bill a little more slack.
Hillary=competent, yes. But this campaign shows her to be irresponsible with money ($500,000 in parking fees) and in hiring and supervising staff(her head of staff, though loyal, purportedly was watching soaps most afternoons. Loyalty, as we have learned from Bush does not = excellence.
Shorter Boxer, to be brief…..
Obama wasn’t on the Michigan ballot,so I don’t see how they could award Hillary anything from that state.
LOL
This is the most nonsensical argument being advanced by the Clinton campaign. This so-called “disenfranchisement” argument, if so passionately held by the Clinton campaign, should have been raised well before now. They should have made that argument during the discussion within the party as to whether Michigan and Florida should be punished for their violations. Instead of crying about “disenfranchisement” at the time, they supported the decision of the committee. This is a pretextual argument that is too late to be deemed genuine.
Obama’s ads were, I believe, run on national satellite and cable systems that do not have the ability to filter out ads by market. If you run an add on CNN nationally, it goes everywhere. If you go on a market-by-market, carrier-by-carrier ad buy basis, it is more expensive, unwieldy, and frankly stupid when you can simply buy airtime, remnant or otherwise, on a national level.
Neither campaign really campaigned there. If you think a national ad buy that spilled over into Florida constitutes “campaigning” (anymore than Hillary’s “non-public” trip to Florida right before the vote counts as “campaigning”) then you have a very different definition of campaigning than do most.
But more to the point, and forgetting everything else, Obama’s campaign agreed that delegates in Florida would not count. As did Clinton’s. Now they want to change that position when it suits them.
That’s horseshit.
GregB@66, she sure did, didn’t she? :o) :o) :o)
Pre-show, did she warn Lauer and the “Today” staff:
“Matt, you DO know that I like farting in Church, don’t you?” :o)
Pie is good. I like pie.
Chimpy live re FISA - msnbc
OT– Conyers showdown on cspan1 wrt Miers and Bolton
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/....._0214.html
There is no joy in Pennville - mighty Clinton might be striking out.
1,756 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Bonkers and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
“Again, the networks including supers in their totals, are trying to keep the race going as long as possible to maximize ad revenues…”
Citizen Bonkers, my friend you are right as the snow on the ground here…This race is OVER unless Mrs. Clinton is given orders by the fathers of the oligarchy ta destroy the Democratic Party and launches a scorched earth Kamikaze campaign to marginalize the women and Latinos that she and the bosses are takin’ fer granted.
We need ta move ta the next level here on the progressive front lines and start applyin’ pressure ta O’Lieberman ta come outta the closet and move to the left beginnin’ with the war and the Bush tax larceny…everything else falls into place and the Republifascist Party will be atomized all the way down the ballots. It’s the only way Barak gets the governin’ margins he will need to clean house in the Congressional leadership and move quickly in the first 100 days.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE FUCKIN’ AMMUNITION…IT’S LIKE POWER: USE IT OR LOSE IT!!
oh pleesae the liveblog kind sir
Wexler up now.
C-Span 1 is highly recommended right now.
shorter chimp: if i have to, i will delay my trip to africa to make sure the house passes fisa. i can assure you that al Q is plotting to hurt murkin people. (repeat last sentence 5 times)
my understanding is the super delegates represent progressive interest groups like women voters, american indian voters, teachers, things like that
they do not act as a block, they vote the candidate that will serve their interest group the best
I like this idea, and I don’t see why the delegates should have a problem with it, it insures they go forward with a progressive agenda and it protects the party from renegades, it also protects us from a catastrophy where too late we find out a candidate who has amassed enough delegates to win might become unelectable
Thank you Newton. Just switched to it.
anyone watching president pissypants right now?
that was inspiring
We need telecoms to cooperate with our illegal actions.
Oh! Q&A over now! Gotta take a Time Out with my cuddly.
More money issues…
Seems the landlord for an office in NH just got paid after going to the media (then sent the check to Obama), and an Iowa office is still owed $7,600. They both were pissed at how messy the rooms were left. Yes, this is minor stuff, but it does say a lot about the general attitude of a campaign, and does spread a lot locally through word-of-mouth, which if Clinton is the nom, will not help in Nov.
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/....._0214.html
Breaking: Chimpy sends Valentine to Congress today.
Sheila Jackson Lee waving the Constitution for all to see!
Awesome!
Chimpy’s such an ass for doing his presser at the same time the house is discussing contempt. So cynical, so effective.
Superdelegate support, unlike pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses, is non-binding. They can change who they support at any time.
digg it!
We come here with broken hearts…
Is that what she just said?