Comments on: Rocking the Vote … WA, NE, LA and the Virgin Islands Pt 3 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/ Firedoglake weblog Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:15:48 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Flavius http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1264081 Flavius Sun, 10 Feb 2008 17:36:11 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1264081 <blockquote><p>The leading candidate is further impacted by the system for delegate allocation at district level</p></blockquote> <p>One might ask whether it’s just as likely a leading candidate would<br /> get a windfall against an opponent whose low % of the district vote entitles him or her to only 1.49 delegates,rounded down to 1 with an offsetting bonus for the winner being. </p> <p>No.</p> <p>In the close race actually occuring the mathematics ensure that the winner’s % of the vote is usually in the 50s,the zone where the system works against rather than for leader.</p> <p>Boring , I realize. But the implication is that neither candidate will be able to pull ahead by achieving a landside. So it’s on to the convention<br /> unless Dean can pull a rabbit from his hat.</p>

The leading candidate is further impacted by the system for delegate allocation at district level

One might ask whether it’s just as likely a leading candidate would
get a windfall against an opponent whose low % of the district vote entitles him or her to only 1.49 delegates,rounded down to 1 with an offsetting bonus for the winner being.

No.

In the close race actually occuring the mathematics ensure that the winner’s % of the vote is usually in the 50s,the zone where the system works against rather than for leader.

Boring , I realize. But the implication is that neither candidate will be able to pull ahead by achieving a landside. So it’s on to the convention
unless Dean can pull a rabbit from his hat.

]]> By: Flavius http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263767 Flavius Sun, 10 Feb 2008 10:27:25 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263767 <p>TSF at 123</p> <blockquote><p>Today’s primaries and caucus contests weren’t even supposed to matter six weeks ago</p></blockquote> <p>That was just wrong , the result of the media’s failure to do its homework. It was based on an implicit assumption of winner take all. WTA would have rewarded e.g. HRC’s 52% vote in California with all 400+ delegates and today’s contests would indeed not matter. Instead for her 52% she got , more or less 52% of the delegates. And the race goes on.</p> <p>And that is not the full extent of the anti-landslide implications of the DNC’s approach. The leading candidate is further impacted by the system for delegate allocation at district level. If a district has 4 delegates<br /> and the vote is split 60/40 you might expect the winner to get 2.4 delegates. S/he doesn’t. S/he splits the delegates 50/50.</p> <p>While this was understood by academic voting experts it never found its way into the media and as a result was not understood by the commentariat who continued to project results only achievable under the discarded WTA system. </p> <p>The candidates’ organizations much have understood it but for some reason<br /> decided not to challenge that projection of a super Tuesday sweep which was always inherently improbable.</p> <p>Just as any projection of a future landslide by either candidate is<br /> mathematically absurd. It’s going to be more of the same all the way to the convention unless Dean can mobilize the superdelegates to intervene-maybe via a mini convention in which they somehow use their decisive block of votes to broker a ticket .</p> <p>Whether at such a mini convention or at the far distant official one I think the winning ticket has to be either HRC+Obama or Obama+ ,say, Genl. Wesley Clark to compensate for O’s perceived security deficit.HRC as his VP would also achieve that but I think she’d consider that a humiliation compared to her just remaining as a powerful Senator.</p> TSF at 123

Today’s primaries and caucus contests weren’t even supposed to matter six weeks ago

That was just wrong , the result of the media’s failure to do its homework. It was based on an implicit assumption of winner take all. WTA would have rewarded e.g. HRC’s 52% vote in California with all 400+ delegates and today’s contests would indeed not matter. Instead for her 52% she got , more or less 52% of the delegates. And the race goes on.

And that is not the full extent of the anti-landslide implications of the DNC’s approach. The leading candidate is further impacted by the system for delegate allocation at district level. If a district has 4 delegates
and the vote is split 60/40 you might expect the winner to get 2.4 delegates. S/he doesn’t. S/he splits the delegates 50/50.

While this was understood by academic voting experts it never found its way into the media and as a result was not understood by the commentariat who continued to project results only achievable under the discarded WTA system.

The candidates’ organizations much have understood it but for some reason
decided not to challenge that projection of a super Tuesday sweep which was always inherently improbable.

Just as any projection of a future landslide by either candidate is
mathematically absurd. It’s going to be more of the same all the way to the convention unless Dean can mobilize the superdelegates to intervene-maybe via a mini convention in which they somehow use their decisive block of votes to broker a ticket .

Whether at such a mini convention or at the far distant official one I think the winning ticket has to be either HRC+Obama or Obama+ ,say, Genl. Wesley Clark to compensate for O’s perceived security deficit.HRC as his VP would also achieve that but I think she’d consider that a humiliation compared to her just remaining as a powerful Senator.

]]> By: MyrtleJune http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263495 MyrtleJune Sun, 10 Feb 2008 06:16:59 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263495 <p>Whooo hooooo!!! Did you hear that hot shit speech Obama gave. Yes We CAn!!!!!!!! CNN has him ahead now in the actual delgate count…… but hill ahead with the stooooooper delegate counts. And if howard dean doesn’t shut or lets FL and MI delegates count then he’ll loose us the general. If he lets the stoooper delegates decide this election for Hillary or broker ANY “sharsies” deal with Hillary…… he will lose us the general election. Hillary MUST sit down now. Right now, cause we can roll right over them with the ALL the people campain of Obama. It HOT shit man. :D</p> <p>Obama/Edwards!!!!! YaY!!!!!</p> Whooo hooooo!!! Did you hear that hot shit speech Obama gave. Yes We CAn!!!!!!!! CNN has him ahead now in the actual delgate count…… but hill ahead with the stooooooper delegate counts. And if howard dean doesn’t shut or lets FL and MI delegates count then he’ll loose us the general. If he lets the stoooper delegates decide this election for Hillary or broker ANY “sharsies” deal with Hillary…… he will lose us the general election. Hillary MUST sit down now. Right now, cause we can roll right over them with the ALL the people campain of Obama. It HOT shit man. :D

Obama/Edwards!!!!! YaY!!!!!

]]> By: Siun http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263382 Siun Sun, 10 Feb 2008 05:43:03 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263382 <p>Final update from me gang is above …</p> <p>I think today’s races show the value of “FIELD” so let’s all make a point of helping the field efforts of whichever campaign we support.</p> Final update from me gang is above …

I think today’s races show the value of “FIELD” so let’s all make a point of helping the field efforts of whichever campaign we support.

]]> By: Linfalas http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263343 Linfalas Sun, 10 Feb 2008 05:26:49 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263343 <p>I think the chances of a brokered convention are being overstated simply because virtually no one thought the nomination would be in doubt at this point. To use a football analogy, it’s kind of like predicting overtime two minutes into the third quarter of a tied game. My guess is that at the latest we could get to the begining of May before one candidate becomes inevitable. And that is good for the good guys. More media attention, “ground game” preparation in more states, and just more interest in how our country is run period.</p> I think the chances of a brokered convention are being overstated simply because virtually no one thought the nomination would be in doubt at this point. To use a football analogy, it’s kind of like predicting overtime two minutes into the third quarter of a tied game. My guess is that at the latest we could get to the begining of May before one candidate becomes inevitable. And that is good for the good guys. More media attention, “ground game” preparation in more states, and just more interest in how our country is run period.

]]> By: Loo Hoo. http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263297 Loo Hoo. Sun, 10 Feb 2008 05:08:09 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263297 <p>Not you personally…</p> Not you personally…

]]> By: Loo Hoo. http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263289 Loo Hoo. Sun, 10 Feb 2008 05:05:42 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263289 <p>For sure. Why don’t you take it, sunshine, and clean this place up? *g*</p> For sure. Why don’t you take it, sunshine, and clean this place up? *g*

]]> By: sunshine http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263278 sunshine Sun, 10 Feb 2008 05:03:15 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263278 <p>Seems to me, these days the VP spot is extremely powerful, why not want it.</p> Seems to me, these days the VP spot is extremely powerful, why not want it.

]]> By: Loo Hoo. http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263258 Loo Hoo. Sun, 10 Feb 2008 04:57:10 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263258 <p>HALLELUJAH!</p> HALLELUJAH!

]]> By: TeddySanFran http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263237 TeddySanFran Sun, 10 Feb 2008 04:52:38 +0000 http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/09/rocking-the-vote-wa-ne-la-and-the-virgin-islands-pt-3/#comment-1263237 <p>Today’s primaries and caucus contests weren’t even supposed to matter six weeks ago. Last Tuesday was the planned conclusion of the Clinton campaign, in victory and party unity. The idea that she is still having to fight for the nomination is entirely foreign to her — and to most of her big supporters and money-raisers.</p> <p>To say that today’s contests were long ago leaning Obama’s way isn’t true. TradMed only started looking at the post-SuperTuesday contests two weeks ago — and realized that Obama had been organizing well in them for months. This organization and these victories will yield a momentum narrative. It’ll be difficult for Hillary to counter today’s — and next Tuesday’s — losses with talk about how <em>“this race was always going to be competitive.”</em></p> <p>No, it wasn’t. Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.</p> Today’s primaries and caucus contests weren’t even supposed to matter six weeks ago. Last Tuesday was the planned conclusion of the Clinton campaign, in victory and party unity. The idea that she is still having to fight for the nomination is entirely foreign to her — and to most of her big supporters and money-raisers.

To say that today’s contests were long ago leaning Obama’s way isn’t true. TradMed only started looking at the post-SuperTuesday contests two weeks ago — and realized that Obama had been organizing well in them for months. This organization and these victories will yield a momentum narrative. It’ll be difficult for Hillary to counter today’s — and next Tuesday’s — losses with talk about how “this race was always going to be competitive.”

No, it wasn’t. Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.

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