Zed

McCain must be stopped.

I just got an e-mail from Don, Hilda Solis’ chief of staff, with 4 possible dates for Hilda to come visit FDL and talk about the best way for progressives to address immigration reform.

Rahm Emanuel once said of Hispanics: “Forget about ‘em — they don’t vote.”

They sure as hell shouldn’t be voting for him!

And we told them; the ads look so nice. I think Jane took the Korean and Polish-language ads back to FDL World Headquarters

I know how the Mexican Americans in my family are voting. Democratic. I wonder how Native Indians are going to vote.

I did. They’re with the Jim Marshall ad and they’re lovely.

But nobody votes as much as older white women. Man do those broads vote!

And who will General George Custer Bush endorse? Think perhaps McCain?

Jane asks:
Do you wanna tell him, or should I?

Can we both tell him? That way, he’d be sure to listen. Right?

Tell Emmanuel that Hispanics vote for people they trust. And that they don’t trust people who think they don’t vote.

Did Emmanuel miss a certain march on May 1, 2006?

‘Oh Rahm, Rahm! There’s so much I need to tell you!’

Broads? OK.

Old bags? Not.

My almost 100 year old Auntie voted yesterday. She voted Democratic.

AHhhh, I look forward to the days when the likes of Rahm and Schumer are relegated to chewing old bones on the porch and regaling each other the tales of the good old day’s when Bush was still in office.

Jane:

The Cobb book arrived from Algonquin… Looks good…I’ll start reading it tomorrow.

Do you wanna tell him, or should I?

I so want to tell him.

While his slimy head and soulless lobbyist body are immersed in a vat of…

er - metaphor.

49 to 26 versus 52 to 43

That’s a 32 point swing. There’s something else wrong with Mr Zogby’s numbers. Perhaps he’s been taking “the math” lessons from FOX telecaster Karl Rove.

Rahm is a pompous shit. Now that I think about it, Is there such a thing? I will Google.

There is some interesting analysis showing Obama’s best showings were in caucus states (80% Obama, 19% Clinton in Idaho). This may be indicative of some delegate pickups in Nebraska, Washington and Maine in the next few weeks.

I’m also struck by the margins ins states with large hispanic populations (eg NM caucus was barely for Obama), I wonder if the pundits might be on to something here, and how Obama can respond.

Endorsing isn’t enough. We need to see Bush– and hopefully Cheney– out on the campaign trail with their boy Johnny.

That’s a very poor excuse for Mr. Zogby, because the numbers don’t add up.

Check out CNN’s exit poll. He says he “overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters”. But Latinos aged 18-29 went for Hillary by 67%! And he overestimated them? That makes no sense; if he weighted them too heavily he should have predicted an even larger vote for Hillary.

The exit poll shows a 29% Latino vote, I don’t know what the ratio of mail-ins was, but even if you halve it, you’re still not going to explain a 20 point error. I can only assume that Zogby also blew the effect of the 30% or so that mailed in their ballots.

and TX is one of the big ones coming up.

In the DAYLIGHT?

My lady walked in the door a few minutes ago and stated she ‘didn’t understand’. So I’m thinking this is highly unusual. She tells me she read somewhere earlier that many Mexican Americans think McCain is cool. And then I am thinking that the majority of Cubans in Florida vote Republican. Perhaps my party is obviously doing something not quite right with respect to courting Latinas and Latinos.

We need to make thousands of “Hug” floats, hundreds of thousands of buttons, posters, flyers, etc. Let the CT bloggers write up the “How To” and spread it around.

Zogs was recently on the Daily Show, and was taken to task for being so wrong about about New Hampshire. When Stewart asked if polls influence the actual voting, ZigZogs said, “I don’t know. (giggles).” The whole thing is pretty disturbing in how little he seems to understand:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/vi.....john-zogby

Now where’s that tin foil tuque…oh, here it is…

Zogs is a favorite of the cocktail weenie circuit. He’s been way off in Obama’s favor so far this season, especially the day before the voting. Someone commented here yesterday that their young daughters (Obama backers) in CA didn’t vote because they thought it was wrapped up for Obama. Is Zogby doing what he can to influence voting, or lack thereof, to favor the Establishment candidate, meaning Hillary?

Yes, I realize I could be bonkers.

That would be extraordinary!

I wonder if Obama could do as Reagan did in 1976 — announce a running mate while still campaigning for the nomination. If he picked Bill Richardson, would that temper the Hispanic vote for Clinton?

People forget how close that 1976 GOP convention was, especially for a sitting (although unelected) President. On the first ballot, Ford got 1,187 delegates to Reagan’s 1,070. So when pundits talk about the GOP falling into line and uniting behind the leader: it ain’t always been so.

But nobody votes as much as older white women. Man do those broads vote!

As my handle indicates, I am really “Sixty Something”. I would qualify as an older white woman. But in no way, does that you give you the liberty to call me a “broad”!

Is it considered okay here to tell someone where to shove it? If so, consider it done.

From the US Census Bureau’s “Profile of General Demographic Characteristics 2000 - Illinois,” it appears that 25% of the Fifth Congressional District of Illinois is Hispanic/Latino.

That’s a mighty big group of constituents for Rahm to forget about, wouldn’t you think?

[Here’s a link to the Census Bureau’s demographic report search page — you can choose by state, then find the specifics on CDs in each report. But be warned: these are some big pdf’s.]

Just thought of this while commenting on a previous thread…

Between Obama and Clinton, only one has finished in 3rd place so far. Who is more “electable” again?

Speaking of Hispanics. Do you think former AG Gonzales might be rehabed in a McCain presidency? The possibilities could be endless.

I think the sexist and ageist characterizations have really been extraordinary hereabouts today. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such bold statements in the comments before. It’s unpleasant and I hope it stops.

The latest numbers I saw ( 1 minute ago on New York Times Web site) showed Clinton 210 votes ahead. Do you have more complete numbers?

Hillary Rodham Clinton 66,173 48.5%
Barack Obama 65,963 48.4

we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year…

OK - and flipping a coin would get 50% right.

Accurate would be 100%.

and 13 out of 17 is 76%.

So - Zogby - let me get this straight - you’re half-way between random chance and accurate - and you’re bragging about that?

Jeebus - what marketing skills. No wonder he hangs with the cocktail weenie circuit; they’re the only fols so fullof BS as to be afraid to call Zogby on his.

Why doesn’t Zog just go back to augury with chicken entrails? At least the mess he makes would be someone’s meal.

Oops - I forgot - he and the Village dine out on messes like this.

Nicely done, and let’s leave it at that.

Just for you Kiddo:

http://www.dahothouse.com/media/For_Kiddo.jpg

“There is some interesting analysis showing Obama’s best showings were in caucus states (80% Obama, 19% Clinton in Idaho). This may be indicative of some delegate pickups in Nebraska, Washington and Maine in the next few weeks.”

And Hawaii (Feb. 19!) Our local Progressive Democrats of Hawaii votes tomorrow night on whether to endorse either candidate. We had a vote on Jan 24– the day the news broke about Kucinich’s withdrawal– and using Instant Runoff Voting, Edwards edged out Kucinich. Well, boo hoo, now both our faves are out. I predict an endorsement of Obama.

Bob in HI

How? By giving White House tours?

OT - I’ve been away from the computer all day. Can someone tell me what happened with FISA?

WAH! Now that needs a spew alert.

You always say it so much better than I ever could.

Mystery Pollster Mark Blumenthal had this summary of the widely-varying pre-election polls:

I could walk through what we know about the methodologies of the SurveyUSA and Zogby polls in California, but it would not resolve the temporary mystery of which will be judged most accurate when the votes are counted. The reason, to focus for a moment on just these two polls, is that while SurveyUSA discloses a wealth of information in their interactive crosstabs and their online report — how they sampled, what rough percentage of adults their sample represents, what the composition of their survey is in terms of gender, age, race and region — we know next to nothing comparable about the Zogby poll. And unfortunately, while the Field Poll in California also produces a highly informative report, and while McClatchy released a filled-in questionnaire from Mason-Dixon that includes demographic composition data, the Zogby poll is more indicative of the general lack of disclosure elsewhere.

If ever there was a case for better methdological disclosure by pollsters, this is it. If one poll, conducted entirely over the last 48 hours, shows a candidate leading by 10 points, while another conducted in the same state over the same time period, shows a another candidate leading by 13, and we cannot see enough of the details of how the polls were done to at least explain why they differ, why should we trust what any of these polls tells us?

Emphasis added.

Zogby is one of the least forthcoming polling outfits, and elsewhere Mark has noted that in a poll of professional pollster (both academic and campaign pollsters), Zogby is widely seen by his peers to be the least reliable.

Can’t you just visualize Prez Bush and Sen. Lieberman on the stump for John. I’ll bet Rove is a busy little body right about now on behalf of Mr. McCain. And Jeb speakes Spanish. And he’s also got children that Poppy referred to as “the little brown ones”. It’s all too perfect.

Perhaps my party is obviously doing something not quite right with respect to courting Latinas and Latinos.

Damn straight - in Florida, the national Dems been sucking up to real terrorists - the sort who blow up airliners - for fifty fucking years.

Which raises the question: when will any national Dem have the stones to declare that the homicidal losers in Cuba fifty years ago - and their loathsome corrupt inheritors - are unworthy to watch the door at a bareback whorehouse, musch less determine our foreign policy?

Assuming, of course, the tasks may be distinguished.

“I wonder if Obama could do as Reagan did in 1976 — announce a running mate while still campaigning for the nomination. If he picked Bill Richardson, would that temper the Hispanic vote for Clinton?”

That was exactly my thought!
But TSF, we are SO old school. Just SO retro. The theme of the Obama campaign is to transcend “Identity politics.” By choosing Richardson, wouldn’t Obama be abandoning one of his main campaign themes?

SuperTuesday’s results show that Obama’s great ground game has not been culturally translated to Hispanic-Americans– at least not yet. If he is going to maintain the theme of transcending Identity politcs, he’s going to have to figure out how to do it.

Bob in HI

Very good!

L. likes it.

Speaking of Hispanics. Do you think former AG Gonzales might be rehabed in a McCain presidency? The possibilities could be endless.

I don’t think anyone would touch him with a 30 ft. pole.

The other possibilities are just as scary, though. RUDY GIULIANI as AG, anyone??

kiddo@9:
“General George Custer Bush”
Hilarious!

Not lots. The Cardin 4 year sunset went down 49-46—needed 60. Debate on Specter/Whitehouse has been suspended while they do Stim. package kabuki.

I remember many moons ago, I was driving around and listening to Rush give one of his gasbag, know-it-all lectures about how Zogby was the pollster. Don’t pay any attention to any other poll. Figures. Every time I see Zogster wrong I remember that.

Ditto.

There goes Jane again, hating on my boy Rahm.

[/snark]

Is there going to be some kind of “Where do we go from here” thing in regards what to do next after Pera’s defeat? Donna Edwards becomes all the more important and we have to be ready for any Al Wynn tricks like Lipinski pulled with the Obama photo.

“Not lots. The Cardin 4 year sunset went down 49-46—needed 60. Debate on Specter/Whitehouse has been suspended while they do Stim. package kabuki.”

I thought Cardin’s amendment was withdrawn!?!!?
Do you mean 49-46, with 49 in favor, but needing 60?

Bob in HI

Thanks, RevDeb. Did I miss voting on the 50 vote amendments?

Liddy Dole just voted aye on the stim. package. She must feel threatened.

Oh yeah they vote, they are really pissed about immigration and the whole fence thing. Someone should have been paying attention to the fact that more than a million of them marched peacefully in California to show their displeasure with the impending immigration legislation at the time.

went down 49 aye, 46 no but needed 60. Then Hapless Harry moved to reconsider and table it.

None of the others have been voted on yet to my knowledge, but I missed a big chunk of the early afternoon.

Perhaps a GOP “think tank”? Diversity and all that. ;0)

SuperTuesday’s results show that Obama’s great ground game has not been culturally translated to Hispanic-Americans– at least not yet. If he is going to maintain the theme of transcending Identity politcs, he’s going to have to figure out how to do it.

To me, the thing about this is that Hispanics voting for Hillary now are doing it because of the perceived (falsely IMO) support they have gotten from the Clintons over the years, not because they dislike Obama.

If Obama gets the nom, I’d expect them all, or at least most to vote for Obama in the General, so nothing to worry about. It only took a few weeks for Obama to dismantle the Clintons supposed connection to black voters, and even though he’s not Hispanic, I think he’ll be able to do that with Hispanic voters as well.

and insulting to General George Armstrong Custer.

The website had numbers that were accurate as of 9:00AM. Umm, you didn’t state it but you’re asking about NM? I’m seeing your numbers on the state specific page, and the other website’s numbers on the NY Times summary page.

Looks like NM is not decided. Does anyone of demographic breakdown of caucus attendees in NM?

Rahm is the best argument in favor of discarding the Electoral College in favor of direct democracy.

OT fun facts:

WashingtonPost.com
A Post chat participant believes Craig Ferguson is “sure to be livelier than Rich Little, but not as quirky as Stephen Colbert” at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. “Reliable Source” gossip Amy Argetsinger responds: “Actually, I think he’ll be way quirkier; Colbert’s style is awfully dry. You ever watch Ferguson’s show? He’s a trip. Cracks up at his own jokes, which I find endearing.” PLUS: Has Tucker Carlson been MIA?
> Ferguson was chosen by WHCA after DeGeneres and Carrell said no (E&P)

my emphasis.

But TSF, we are SO old school. Just SO retro. The theme of the Obama campaign is to transcend “Identity politics.” By choosing Richardson, wouldn’t Obama be abandoning one of his main campaign themes?

Abandoning that theme would cost a lot by alienating the newly idealistic contingent of his support.

Richardson would still be a good choice for VP or SoS for Obama.

Once they discard all of the e-voting machinces and figure out how to count all the paper ballots.

Does anyone know when Rahm said Hispanics don’t vote? Maybe it was before he entered Congress.

kiddo mentioned something about Liddy and Bob after reading your comment regarding Ms. Dole (and stimulation). I don’t think I’ll repeat it though.

Lahoma

Nicely done, and let’s leave it at that.

Consider that done too. (g)

Agree.

Hillary has a very strong immigration proposal which helps with the Hispanics. Also, remember, their culture is very matriarchial. Older women who retire to Mexico do much better than their male counterparts.
I belong to several forums for retirees considering a move to Mexico and this is a recurring theme. Any Hispanic in South Texas has extended family in Mexico and has some cultural blending.

Does anyone know when Rahm said Hispanics don’t vote?

I don’t know if it was before or after he volunteered to serve apartheid in the Mideast.

On another rant:

Napalm McCain flew high-tech warplanes and dropped lethal weapons - killing and maiming civilians in a nation wholly unable to threaten the United States. He killed civilians in an undeclared war conducted in contravention of the Geneva Conventions.

If that’s a “war hero”, what’s a “war coward”?

I’d tell ya to look under the file marked Bush, G.W. National Guard but we already know that’s been sanitized.

OMG those are priceless. Can you get that up on CafePress and sell it. I’d love a coffee mug with one of those pics on it.

Rahm will have cause to regret that statement.
It is becoming well known in Chicago Hispanic circles.
Infortunately there were no other candidate running against him in the primary Tuesday.

Jane,

emptypockets has a really good idea. see this…

I had just read Zogby’s piece before seeing yours. What struck me was:

On the other hand, will Democrat race degenerate into a repeat of 1968? That year, supporters of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, who were very opposed to the war in Vietnam, refused to warm up to party nominee Hubert Humphrey. Their lukewarm support cost Humphrey the election, and helped to elect Nixon by one point.

Ahh. Stubborn refusal of citizens(”supporters”) to enthusiastically accept the worst of three candidates.

The theme of the Obama campaign is to transcend “Identity politics.” By choosing Richardson, wouldn’t Obama be abandoning one of his main campaign themes?

Richardson also is one of the most experienced of the candidates that were running, in terms of knowledge and experience internationally, energy and environmental policies and in running an executive system.

There are a ton of good reasons one might want him on a ticket or in the Cabinet.

Hillary finished second in Iowa to Obama if you want to go by delegates.

Laughing, but looking in the mirror at my white hair, do they come in plain brown paper anonymously?

*sigh* as a member of the homogeneous hispanic block, thanks for acknowledging us (snark)

Thanks for acknowledging my presence, Rahm. I’m pissed. I’m Hispanic. I voted, and not for Hillary.

Younger hispanics were on the front lines demonstrating during the immigration debate going on last summer. Hell yes they are going to vote big time. They got a crash course in democracy during that time and graduated as genuine activists for their cause.

I don’t though. Just like I don’t say Obama “won” Nevada since he got more delegates there.

I live in Northern California and have voted at the same place for 4 years. This election, I saw a lot of African Americans at the polls. I don’t think I have ever seen one before at the polls. (And that goes back 20 years.)

Anecdotal evidence, for sure, but I don’t believe that AAs didn’t vote last Tuesday … and Hispanics did.

Most Latinos that are US citizens I know vote. The idea that Latinos don’t vote rests on the fact that the number of voters is a relative small percentage compared to the total Latino community. The reason for that are due to large number of young people not voting, and the number of legal residents who are not willing to give up their first citizenship. We are all raised to love and pledge allegiance to our country of birth, and for some, it’s difficult to let go and pledge allegiance to another country. It’s particularly difficult when one visits the old country regularly. In my case, though I never went back, it took me 20 years to resolve the conflict. Most Americans who live abroad, sometimes for years, rarely give up their US citizenship.

On NPR this morning, Andy Kohut of Pew Research mentioned that in California, 30% of the vote was Hispanic and they voted 66% for Hillary. By contrast, New Mexico’s hispanics split evenly between Hillary and Barack, and in one of the eastern states the Hispanic vote favored Obama.

Does anyone have a hypothesis for the difference in the distribution of the Hispanic vote in California? Something about the leanings of the Spanish language media in the state? Something else?

Note: that should read “30% of the vote in the democratic primary was Hispanic.”