Login HereStoller and Bowers both say it's unlikely anything will be decided tomorrow, so:
Brokered Convention?By: Jane Hamsher Monday February 4, 2008 2:29 pm |
Brokered Convention?By: Jane Hamsher Monday February 4, 2008 2:29 pm |
Stoller and Bowers both say it's unlikely anything will be decided tomorrow, so:
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JED
‘allo Jane…
Ha. Jed, a twin brother to Zed.
Anyone having trouble getting onto TPM?
No. I got on OK
We have to beat McCain. This now may be the only game in town. And to that end I will vote for the nominee of my party. Regardless of that nomonee’s name.
Hmmm. Maybe I’ll have to reboot.
Good evening, Jane.
What! You mean muh vote in Pennslyvania might ‘count’ for something?
Zoot Alors!
Eempooseebull!
You wouldn’t joke aboot dis, wud youse (as they say here in Pitysboorgh)?
Jane!
Actually, I wouldn’t mind seeing a “real” convention. It would be a sentimental happening. Like in the old days. Seriously.
Boosh proposes a $3.1 *Trillion* budget, which boosts defense spending by 8%, depends upon unrealistic expectations of economic growth, cuts social services almost universally, and doesn’t even recognize the money going down the rat-hole in Iraq…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....84764.html
I’m (momentarily) at a loss for words…
2 v’s in savvy.
Kiddo, the Rethugs may beat McCain before we even get to the general. They’re getting downright hi-stair-icle about him over there…way, way over there….
I’m voting for John Edwards in the Washington State primary, and I’m even going to attempt to caucus for him as well.
That’s right. I’ll vote for whomever the Democrats put up in November, but right now, I’m still voting my conscience.
-S
I will be interested in the turn out numbers tomorrow for Republicans as compared to my party’s numbers.
‘m not sure why this is a problem, yet. After Super Tuesday, we’ll have heard from only half the states — a larger share of the country, though. At this point, the national polls show us about equally divided between the two remaining candidates. And those polls have been steadily changing. We’ve had a dozen debates, and the country is getting a pretty good idea who these people are, what they stand for, how well they stand up to scrutiny and how they compare to the remaining Republicans. All of this is good.
We don’t need a final answer on February 6. It’s not September; it’s February, and I see no reason why the process can’t continue to sort this out. If, after a few more months, a clear favorite emerges from the remaining primaries and/or polls, why wouldn’t we expect the “super-delegates” to reflect that? If the electorate has a strong favorite, it would be nuts for the delegates to reject that, and there’s no reason to assume they’re more than usually nuts.
Moreover, the debates/contests have, IMO, helped the Dems and improved the public’s perception of them.
I think we’re still okay. For now.
Not sure of the exact numbers but I think at the end of the day tomorrow, there will still be 20 or so states left to vote/caucus so I’m still not real sure anyone should be claiming a victory quite yet. And as a loyal Dem who detests the idea of a brokered convention, it might actually be a good thing and allow the party to draft President Gore into service once again.
I observe that if Hillary can pull this one out, she goes into office with a specific mandate for specific progressive policies. If Obama gets into office he comes with a mandate for optimism. Washington has a way of squeezing Obama out of new presidents. Look at Jimmy Carter’s first two years and Bill Clinton’s first two years. I’ll take specificity, thank you. I already optimism that a Democrat can undo the damage of the last two terms.
What would be our 21st century equivalent of the smoke-filled room?
Coffee-aroma-filled room? Room filled with the clattering of keyboard chicklets?
Bob in HI
It’s pretty clear from the voting that everyone hates going to Denver. Must be the airport.
I believe tomorrow will be our first step in the march to the White House.
A brokered convention would be historic! I’d really love to see one. It might yield the best possible candidate.
MSM has been saying the same thing: so-called tsunami Tuesday will settle nothing between Hill and Obama. For the Rethugs, McCain has it. National polls show Hill at 46 percent and Obama at 44. Basically a dead heat.
Kate Michelman on MNBC going on and on about Obama… and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend about Hill…
I’m voting for Edwards in NYS.
The roots need to keep on pushing.
I don’t fully trust Obama,
and I don’t trust Hillary’s entourage.
I will confess to this fantasy where the convention is deadlocked and John Edwards becomes the kingmaker.
Which convention is going to have the biggest protest demonstrations and rallies? The GOP or the DNC?
Me too. In the actual old days, I thought it seemed like chaos, but now conventions are nothing but an excuse for blather & balloons. I have deep nostalgia for the old days, now that I have a basis of comparison.
I am happy for a brokered convention more so if Edwards was still in the game… it puts our candidates front and center…. the issues they are addressing and pull in viewers to a convention that usually is a snooze… Any time you can show a contrast between our team and McCain all the better….
Still have visions of Obama & Edwards on a stage with McCain and some other old white guy …..
on the left you see the future and on the right…. the past…
By comparison to McCain, even a blue dog might be considered a Progresive. Same for Romney.
Heya!
I wanted to say Thanks fer givin’ my little rant hole a shout out the other day.
I appreciate very much!
Oh, dear, Scarecrow, you’re starting to sound like me. I’m having a hard time saying and staying positive. Reminds me of my personal favorite:
That’s what seven years of Beating Around the Bush have done to us! *g*
We love Gore in this house. ;0)
The sound would be the soft thud of bottles of water being set on tables.
The main thing I fear about a brokered convention is that the political heavyweights with big bank accounts and other DLC types have too much influence. I am not enamored with this prospect.
Bob in HI
Smoking is banned in public facilities in lots of cities, but probably not Denver. There could be smoke filled rooms!
In a brokered convention, the candidate can come from anywhere and not just those still actively running. It could even be Gore!
“I will confess to this fantasy where the convention is deadlocked and John Edwards becomes the kingmaker.”
He’s only “suspended” his campaign, right? Doesn’t this mean that he can hang onto his delegates until he chooses to release them?
Bob in HI
no problem - well-deserved.
Although the shout from drifty might carry just a *little* more weight…*g*
If only!!
Any Democrat that thinks we are a shoo-in for next November, might want to re-evaluate that assumption. There’s a tremendous amount of work to be done.
Love to see a struggle to choose the candidate and not the made-for-tv worship-a-thons we usually get.
IIRC, smoking is banned throughout Denver, including in bars.
Is Romney still giving everyone who votes for him a pony?
That’s a good point. We think.
Gore/Edwards
Gore/Obama
Gore/Webb
Bob, I believe that is correct.
Scarecrow, my concern about the ’super delegates’ is that there are too many of them.
Does this concern register on ypour ’still okay’-meter?
Gore/Edwards, my two faves. But two white guys from the south?
There’s going to be a lot of voters who will vote against Hillary and Obama next November. If that nasty shit Rove can stir them up.
Denver sounds like Berkeley. Ban smoking everywhere. Works for me either place. If only we can get some of the Berkeley happy wonderers to bath sometimes.
Pretty good column from Michael Chabon this morning about fear dominating our political culture and how Obama is the anti-fear candidate.
Really liked his final graf:
“And when we all wake up on Nov. 5, 2008, to find that we have made Barack Obama the president of the United States, the world is already going to feel, to all of us, a little different, a little truer to its, and our, better nature. It is part of the world’s nature and of our own to break, ruin and destroy; but it is also our nature and the world’s to find ways to mend what has been broken. We can do that. Come on. Don’t be afraid.”
NPR on “All Things Considered” did a glowing piece on McCain. The “maverick”, “experienced,” the “survivor.” He’s always been a favorite of the MSM and 2008 will be no different. To win in November means beating McCain and beating back MSM propaganda.
How many superdelecates are there? How many total delegates?
With Edwards a non-factor - I can only see myself takin’ a flyer on Obama.
Despite Jane’s excellent post today, irrational Hillary-hating most certainly exists - and I’m not in the mood to lose the WH for anybody or any reason. For the umpteenth time, I say that HRC is a one-woman GOTV campaign for the Repub’s, and the down-tickets will suffer as well…
More and Better Democrats, and to that effect, I’m leaning pretty hard toward Obama….
Smoking banned in all public places in NYC, including bars. Thanks to Nanny Bloomberg.
AP - The record $3.1 trillion budget proposed by President Bush on Monday is almost sure to produce eyepopping federal deficits, despite his attempts to impose politically wrenching curbs on Medicare and eliminate scores of popular domestic programs.
20% of the total.
Which is obscene.
AP - Buoyed by cheering crowds and bolstered by more than $1.3 million a day in TV ads, Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton raced through the final hours of a Super Tuesday campaign across 22 states. Mitt Romney made a late, possibly last appeal to conservatives to derail Republican front-runner John McCain on the busiest day in primary history.
It would be nice to see the Bush family earmarks listed when Bush postures like this, but that would require there to be a Democratic voice heard by the MSM. Sadly, there’s none.
The feedback I’ve gotten re the Obama event in Minneapolis on Saturday (20,000 people got inside for it; the rest not so lucky) is that he absolutely captivated the crowd. A boatload of young people (who, according to one of them herself, are devilishly difficult to motivate to get out for something like that). Older people. Diversity aplenty. Some Hillary supporters who jumped ship as a result of hearing Obama. And even a few Repugs plighting their troth to Obama. I feel as though this surge is working.
Wiser heads would prefer less, perhaps as Eschaton suggests, 5% would be better. Any thoughts on this?
I think there are about 750 super-delegates, not sure of total number of not-so-super delegates.
I don’t know what the right number of supers would be. I just think that these people are political operatives/elected officials/etc, and that if a clear preference emerges from the remaining states/polls after Feb 5, the supers are not going to ignore that. I think the process is actually more democratic than we might fear, because the means for the public telling us their preferences are so much more advanced than when “smoke-filled rooms” were the norm. So, no, I’m not worried about the number of supers, even though it’s not ideal, whatever ideal is.
We can’t look at it that way. My votes would go that way because of Global Warming (they are both on the same page); their Constitutional positions; and their clear view of what the Neocons are really all about…my only slight reservation about Edwards is due to Feingold’s remarks about him — that bothered me, because I respect Feingold. I love Obama’s thoughts on unity, but reality is we’ve been living under an administration whose actions created Hugh’s list, and I want them held accountable, if at all possible.
Between Obama and HRC, I will vote Obama, but if HRC gets the nomination, she gets my vote.
It’s imperative, we think, to defeat Mr. McCain next November. The view here is that this individual would be even worse than Bush.
I totally agree with you. Actually, I don’t look at it that way (the two white southern guys meme). It was a devil’s advocate thing. I’m just wondering how well two southerners, east of the Mississippi would fare together, issues aside. And let us not for one moment forget that issues don’t seem to matter much to the celebrity-obsessed public.
I am no political scientist, but 0% - 5% sounds OK.
With 20%, the possibilities for back room shenanigans are definitely there.
This is not just a one-year issue - this sort of crap belongs in the other party.
I do not care whether the convention is brokered or not. Either HRC or Obama would be fine presidents. People need to remember that getting and Democratic President AND a More and Better Democratic Congress are essential next year for the safety of the nation -and I think the latter is more important.
Anyone who gets so caught up in presidential personality cults, or loses sight of that fact needs to:
-take a deep breath
-go to their room and take a ‘time out’
-think about the big picture
-count to ten
-sleep on it,
-Read the Book of Wisdom of your choice.
I see too many well intentioned and rational people descend into presidential personality nonsense that is worthy of the standard hacks at the NY times opinion page.
Speaking of which -anyone see the crudlike levels to which Dowd, Kristol and even some of the other better opinion page people such as Rich and Kristoff have descended in the last few days. What shallow fatuous nonsense, piffle and prattle. What is this, a Jr High school council election. Most of those get better analysis from their respective school newspapers, I would hope.
Just becuase people like Dowd and Kristol and Kristoff make fools of themselves doesn’t mean we have to make fools of ourselves as well.
This is what wiki has on Superdelegates.
Different style but no substantial difference. The NeoCons must be salivating. More of the same with a topping of more of the same.
OT - Harry’s bitching pretty hard on C-SPAN 2 right now…
repub’s just told him they’re gonna filibuster either the stimulus package or FISA - haven’t quite got it figured out yet…
(seems to be the stimulus package)
I’m voting for edwards too. Even if I have to write in his name. I’ve never done a write in before. Frankly, I would love to see Edwards do well tomorrow.
It would send a very loud message
Some of those superdelegates will also likely be looking at the results locally, rather than nationally. For some, “Which one carried my congressional district?” might be a rather more critical issue, especially if they are looking at a close race of their own and want to build on the excitement of voters back home.
“Advanced” yet vulnerable, no? My concern is that these ’super delegates have no real responsibility to or genuine connection to the ‘people’(perhaps, even, no ‘affection for, as well) and might yet decide that not only do they know better, but that they know best.
Things are out of ‘balance’ and may ‘wobble’ further so if certain ‘interests’ feel ’slighted’.
Absolutely. It is a back-scratching arrangement.
and I want them held accountable, if at all possible.
I want heads to roll too - just not Justice Stevens’s head…
The ‘pubs are going to block the stimulus package? Are they out of their minds? Why would they even consider doing that?
Way to lose the NASCAR vote, dudes.
He’ll probably still be on the ballot, so you won’t have to write in his name.
This, too, is perhaps why he suspended his campaigning rather than formall withdrew from the race entirely — it keeps his name on the ballots.
Hey Busted I like the cartoon at your house…. although the legs should have a wider stance:>)
Amen
NYS supers will vote for Hillary.
good Wiki work! The DNC rules in the “call for the convention” expressly state that there are three thousand “regular” delegates, which seems to be a slightly smaller number than the 3,253 mentioned on Wiki.
Just Harry again, jumping up and down like Rumpelstilskin.
Good point; another reason not to fret about this yet.
Scarecrow - OT but, will you be in Phiily or Eschacon08?
Frankly, neither Obama nor HRC look like great visionary or exceptionally capable leaders right now. We need one of them to win, and then hope for the best. Ugly stuff will be said and done by both parties and there will be stupid convention tricks attempted by both parties. So what? That is real life on imperfect panet earth. If anyone is too good and noble for imperfect life on planet earth, I suggest they find their little desert island where they can be their noble perfect selves without any interference from the rest of us lousy slobs.
I think there is an very strong and unhealthy element of ugly and immature nnarcissism and self-righteousness in US politics. People are too willing to judge potential leaders by unreasonable standards, become overly idealistic about their favorites, and overly harsh and bitter towards those they find wanting.
Anyone want to risk the planets’ health, thousands and thousands of human lives (both US and foreign), US national security and your own economic well being to another GOP administration and another pathetic Congress like this? The stakes are too high. No time for infighting or bitterness now.
Supers in NYS are 49/281, or 17%.
Thinking about it; haven’t signed up; we now have friends nearby, ya know. You?
Harry would do well to stop demonstrating obsequious deferrence to the bastards at every turn. Why is he surprised when they stick it to him? Is he really surprised or just pretending?
I would call your state Democratic party to see what they have done with the Edwards delegates. I have heard that in some areas they have been excused or disbanded as he is no longer running.
Thinking about it hard. If we are both there can I talk to you about Law Schools and such?
By tomorrow evening, every member of the ET family will be a registered Democrat, including Ms. ET, who has always been unaffiliated. ET, Ms. ET, ETette and ET, Jr. - all Dems. And all voting in our caucus, except for ETette. She’s away at college in WA state, and can’t participate, as she’s registered here in AK.
My understanding is that it is also a mechanism that allows him to receive the matching funds for his campaign that would not be given him if he officially closed the campaign.
You bet.
Excellent. Thanks.
I’m hoping for a brokered convention with the Press listening to the Dem’s message 24/7 until then. I think that’s our best scenario (fingers crossed).
I contacted my precinct head (MN) today to see if I could caucus for Edwards. She was a little vague, but indicated that there would be an ‘uncommitted’ group, where Edwards’ votes would likely go. Any Minnesotan have any other info?
That convention link you provided is quite the “word problem” for any math teachers out there. (Hi kiddo!)
It starts with a formula for dividing up 3000 “regular delegates” among the fifty states and DC, based on past election returns. Then you add in additional regular delegates for American Samoa and other non-state entities, plus various kinds of other extra delegates calculated with other formulas.
And then you add in super-delegates - all Democratic presidents, members of Congress, governors, etc.
I’d say the wiki number is probably right, once you do the math all the way through.
Great theater would be a Republic brokered convention. They’d be trying to pick a candidate with Bush trolling for attention with as much energy as the Republics would be expending pretending he doesn’t exist.
yeah, it looks like algebra
Two brokered conventions would be fantastic. We’d see the profesionalism of the Dems (hopefully) and the chickens without heads running around in cirlces at the Repub one (praying for it). There’s not enough beer in this world to compare to that amount of fun.
Exactly. I also don’t see the Obama fans switching at all.
(I knew you meant it that way *g*).
Question: Re voting in primaries and caucuses, what WWED (”E” being Edwards). If he could advise his loyalists, what would he tell them? Okay, us. And who will he endorse (assuming he doesn’t plan to unsuspend his campaign)?
I just don’t get the McCain thing. Repubs basically don’t like him at all..Dems don’t like him, and independents would tend more toward a Paul I would think…so who really voted for him? Diebold?
why does Harry want to “finish” FISA on Super-Tuesday?
He just mentioned concern that he be allowed to give HRC and Obama 24 hours’ notice, so that they can be present for the stimulus package bill on Wednesday - so why does he want to vote on FISA tomorrow?
In this house we want to put asunder the Republicans next November, so badly, it’s palpable. We can almost taste it. We will unite behind the Democratic nominee come this autumn.
Diebold comes into play only if Jeb is on the ballot.
Pat Buchanan on MSNBC: “The Republicans are gonna tear apart Obama if he wins the nomination…”
We need very badly to get a new Speaker and Leader of the Senate. After the fall elections. That’s part of the big picture.
would that be “Ex-President Pat Buchanan”?
Umm - no.
And they will try to do the same with HRC. Rove is at work.
That’s true even before the elections. The current ones seem to want to hand everything back to the Republics. They are so bland that they can barely get on the news. THey are not what you want as spokespeople.
brokered back in the mountains.
That may indeed be the plan, because they might have gotten McCain to go along with Jeb being VP (age and illness and all); even if the “Bush” stigma pisses off the nation….they can call the shots with the machines.
This is going to get nasty. George W. Bush and Karl Rove… bring it on. I’m waiting for you two draft dodging “girlie boys”.
Careful what you wish for.
Though a brokered convention would be great political circus, if the Republicans who have finally got their act together and are well on their way to settling on a nominee (McCain)reached concensus before the Democrats, it would be absolute disaster. For the Democrats! That would leave us in the primary mode while they have progressed to general election mode. Not a good thing at all in my mind.
It would just verify the stereotype that “I don’t belong to any organized party, I am a Democrat” mantra. Aka, known as Dems can’t make up their mind, haven’t got their act together and certainly can’t run the country.
Again, be careful what you wish for.
Seems like the McCain campaign is worried about if not a brokered convention, then a broken party — and would really like to shut Rush Limbaugh up. From Chris Cillizza at the WaPo:
OMG. Just the imaginary of Jed as veep is …..That is repulsive.
correction: imagery. (I got so dizzy at the thought)
Either way works for me.